The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Michigan vs. Washington, Michigan’s Success Is NOT From “Cheating”, Sharp or Square
Episode Date: January 5, 2024Colin previews the College Football Playoff championship game between Michigan and Washington. He explains that while Washington pulls at his heartstrings, ultimately, Michigan is the better team. (3:...00) He also dives into Michigan’s recent list of accomplishments and ascribes their success to Jim Harbaugh and their roster, and NOT to “cheating” (6:45). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the final week of the NFL regular season and the CFP championship! 14:15 - Texans vs. Colts 17:00 - Patriots vs. Jets 19:30 - Bills vs. Dolphins 22:00 - Seahawks vs. Cardinals 23:45 - Bears vs. Packers 27:00 - Falcons vs. Saints 28:30 - Michigan vs. Washington 31:00 - Giants vs. Eagles (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody, and welcome in to our Friday morning podcast.
So, you know, in my career, I've always thought I'm not against sportscasters who are
like homers, like a lot of local TV and radio people are big homers.
You know, if you listen to WFA and in New York, you know, they're all wearing their jet
hoodies and they're doing their thing.
That didn't bother me at all.
But I've never, that's never been my thing.
I always feel like I'm the judge, you're the jury, and, you know, the two teams or the prosecuting
attorney, the DA.
And my job is to just give sort of an unemotional opinion on stuff.
And I think I've built my career on trying not to be a homer.
It's hard with Washington, because when I was a kid, it was the first team I loved.
It wasn't the Seahawks.
It wasn't the Mariners.
The first team I loved was the Washington Huskies.
And I can remember the radio being on on Saturday afternoons, and they had a running back
named Robin Earl.
He wore number 99.
And they had these just very purple gold kind of generic uniforms.
And I just loved college football, and I don't know why, but I love the Huskies.
And then Don James takes them over in the 70s and Warren Moon and Spider Gaines and Michael
Jackson, the linebacker.
It's the first team I loved.
And whatever you love at 9, 10 years old is what you love for love.
life, right? And it's the one team, not USC, not the Patriots, not Brady. The one team I really have
an emotional attachment to is Washington. So I've always kind of pushed back on that. You know, I don't
want to be a homer. I don't think they match up with Michigan terribly well. And my guess is that
Michigan wins. My guess would be like 30 to 23. You know, if I had to bet my 401k, I would actually
take Michigan here. And the reasons being is that I think Kalin DeBoer is really a prep monster.
I think he's one of those rare coaches like an Andy Reid that is almost unbeatable when he has
extra time and now they don't. And so when you've got a month to prepare for Texas, you can bring in
things that you just don't have time to put in over the course of five days or four days of
practice. But once you get to the championship game, both teams equally rested and it's short. It's just your
regular college football week. I think Michigan's just got better players. Washington is heavily
penalized. Michigan is rarely penalized. Washington's got some age, but a lot of underclassmen and
Michigan's old. O-line for Washington, some say is the best in the country. If it's not,
Michigan's, D-line, huge edge Michigan, both great coaches. But I just feel like Michigan feels like
national champion. They have seven blowouts.
And Washington feels like a really good football team that is brilliantly coached and
quarterbacked. I do think personnel-wise, I don't, you know, Washington's wide receivers
are better than Michigan's. That's not terribly close. And Pennix is better than J.J.
McCarthy as a collegian. But I think Michigan would have the majority of the starters in the game.
And I think on regular week of practice, neutral field, you'll see Michigan flex.
It'll be a good game. Washington certainly good enough and potent enough to win backdoor cover or backdoor win with a couple of late aerial touchdowns.
But you don't get any cheapies over the top against Michigan. I said I thought Washington was a great matchup against Texas because the longhorns, frankly, had a not very good in the back end. And that's Washington's strain.
But, you know, one of the things about Michigan is that, and I talked about this on FS1, whatever makes you sleep better at night, go ahead. But the Patriotin,
Brady were better after SpyGate.
And they were better after DeflateGate.
Brady's numbers went up after Deflate Gate.
The Colts were bitter because New England was dominating the series.
And so they turned the Patriots in for Deflate Gate.
Brady's numbers went up once there was no extra additive air to the mall or less air in the
mall.
Conor Stallions, it was at most 1% for Michigan.
They've played, if they beat Washington and their favorite,
to beat Washington. They will have beaten Washington, Alabama, and Ohio State in order with no, quote,
cheating. This team is about hardball, their O-line, D-line, their lack of penalties, their NFL bodies,
their upper classmen, their discipline and intelligence. Whatever makes you sleep better at night,
spygate, deflategate, Conner Stallions, but now we know they're not, quote, cheating. If they beat
Washington. Once the last time Washington lost a football game. They've beaten Oregon twice and Texas
twice in those four games. The last time they've played Texas twice, two bowl games beat them both.
Texas. Texas who hammered Alabama, overwhelmed them in Tuscaloosa, physically pushed them around.
So they're going to have beaten Washington, Ohio states, a juggernaut, and Alabama, without the
Conner Stallion's advantage. This team is about so many things. If you think it's cheating,
signals. There's no reason. Like I said before, I'm not going to argue on certain things.
Like the vaccines absolutely saved millions of lives, especially for older people. They weren't needed
for kids. I'm not a fan of mandates. They saved a lot of lives. I know six or seven people that
didn't get them. They were stubborn or they don't like needles. They got sick as hell. My family, me,
friends, lots of a, we took the vaccines. We had COVID. Boom. Two days. Fine.
Right. So I'm just not going to argue with you. You go ahead and live in your conspiracy theory. I don't care. And you can go ahead and convince yourself that, you know, Connor Stallions is the reason they won. Yeah, I'm going to go with no. They're going to give Washington's offense problems. And virtually nobody gives Washington's offense problems. And you're going to watch Monday night and go, geez, Washington's a little patient, a little pressure. Washington seems to be off. And you're going to look up and realize.
This has never been about an iPhone's shaky video and hand signals.
This Michigan team is one great college receiver away from being an Alzheimer.
This is a really good football team.
Let's talk Chad Millman, Sharper Square, shall we?
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To be clear, 84's big to me,
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I'm down to talk about crack on day,
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For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.
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All right.
Time for Sharper Square.
Chad Millman, CCO, the Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings.
I'm not prone to brag, but I am on a little bit of a little bit of a little bit of
a heater.
Don't talk about it.
Don't say it.
You're going to turn yourself into a cooler, man.
I know.
So listen, there's only two games all year that have made me bitter and losing.
I lost a doink on the Saints game because they hit the crossbar on a kick.
And that Colts Raiders game, you told me to stay away.
I still contend this morning.
The Colts was the side.
Whatever.
Whatever.
You know what, though?
Here's the good news.
Here's the good news.
You and I were texting, and I was begging you to bet the Cardinals to be my betting buddy.
And you did.
I did.
And it felt good, right?
It felt great.
But you know what's funny?
I really, I, Greg Costell comes on my show.
And I told Greg today, I said, Greg, I watch him play.
And I'm like, there's not three of him on the planet.
I like Kyleor Murray.
I don't care about his video games.
I watch him.
I'm like, I wouldn't want to tackle him.
He's just great.
He's just like, if you were in a schoolyard and you're like,
Like, who's the guy that nobody can tackle?
You'd be like that guy, him and Lamar.
Like, I just like him.
So, all right, let's start with this.
Because it's a weird week.
It's a bad week.
You don't have starters.
Who really cares?
One of the things a sports gambler told me years ago, he loved betting March Madness.
He goes because everybody's in.
There's no like, oh, you know, it's a long road trip like the NBA.
He goes, NBA, you've got to pick your spots.
March Madness, all games are true.
This is the most untrue week of the NFL season.
Like, who cares?
So I would take the Texans minus one and a half against the Colts because basically you're saying to yourself, who do you trust?
Yes.
I think C.J. Stroud is better than we think. And I think we all think he's good. I'm going to take the Texans. I think C.J. Stroud, I watch him play. I love his, I love his setup. I love his arm strength. I love his accuracy. I think he's sensational. I had no idea. His comp was Jared Gough.
I didn't know he would be slightly better than Jared his first year.
I thought comp is like he'll become.
I'm like he's Jared Goff with more of a power arm that moves better.
So I like the Texans here, Sharper Square.
Well, look, we discussed this exact game today.
And for those who are listening for the first time on my podcast, The Favorites,
we will do this segment where we do something called Sharp Calls.
And we get calls, me and my co-host, Simon Hunter,
get calls from professional betters throughout the week who listen to our show on Tuesday.
And then on Thursday, by Thursday they've got opinions and they will call us over the 48 hours
between Tuesday and Thursday and give us their opinions.
This game was completely divided.
So the Texans opened as one and a half point underdogs in this game, Sunday night.
I will tell you right now, it was the first game that I bet, the Texans plus one and a half.
The wise guys bet it too.
They bet it at one, then they better to pick, then they bet it at Texans minus one,
now it's minus one and a half.
So I agree that Texans are still the right side.
I think C.J. Stroud.
Remember last week, I told you, I think they're going to clobber the Titans.
They're a better team.
100%, right?
They are a better team.
Gardner Minshu plays with fire every week.
He has the fourth most turnover worthy throws of anybody in the NFL behind Josh Jobs,
Desmond Ritter, Daniel Jones.
Okay.
Shane Steichen just keeps him out of trouble.
But when Gardner Minshu has to come back or potentially is in trouble, that's when
there's trouble, right?
And so you're kind of betting on CJ Stroud to be better than Gardner Minshew in a close
game where every possession is going to matter.
On the field, that's what you're doing.
Totally sharp.
Here's why the wise guys might not be on your side.
And this is why this game was split and such a good.
good debate today, when you start betting on a team that goes from being an underdog to being a
favorite, historically, the percentages work against you in terms of covering. So that's why wise guys
when it's at one and a half, Texans minus one and a half, they start to walk away and start to think
about the Colts. The second game is Bill Belichick is nothing, if not a grudge holder.
he wants to win this game so much because his career, I mean, there's like multiple stories out of the Boston Herald.
Bella checks out.
He's told his staff.
He wants to screw up their draft.
He's going to walk out of here, get the Washington job.
He cares so deeply about winning.
You think he wants to hand them Michael Pennix or Drake May?
He wants him fifth.
I'm just going to say they are.
If you watched them the last three weeks,
I mean, against Buffalo, you're like,
oh, they're really competing.
Oh, yeah.
They're really competing.
I'm going to take the Patriots minus two and a half at home
to beat a listless Jets team.
Yeah, it's totally square.
You're stepping in it.
Look, it's not a game that anybody wants to bet.
This all of a sudden is the corner TV game, right?
Because you're getting a short home favorite
in which the bookmakers are saying to the squares,
come on, I dare you. Take the short home favorite. Take the team that has been competitive the past few weeks at less than a field goal. That's what we want you to do. If the bookmakers are telling you they want you to do something, then you want to do something else. So the wise guys are going to be on the Jets here. But this is not one of those games where everyone's like, oh yeah, I got to take. There is huge edge in the Jets or the Patriots in this game. I will
tell you one other thing, and it's interesting for this week because it's applicable for every game.
Home teams in division games the past five years, 47% against the spread.
That's weird.
Yeah.
It is.
That's weird.
It is.
But then you got to, like, look, Colin, there's a million stats and trends that you could sort of layer onto this, right?
You got to think about it.
And it's not applicable in this game, but it will be in others.
Like, you can't take every trend and just say, okay.
I'm going to do it.
Trends are the handrail on the roller coaster.
If you've got an opinion, they might make you feel a little more secure.
It can make you feel like you're making a better decision.
It should not be what you base your decision on.
All right.
A game I like Bills Minish 3 at Miami.
Now Chubb and Phillips are out.
No pass rush against Josh Allen.
I think the Bills are a better team.
I think they were looking ahead to Miami when they played New England.
I thought the dolphins were awful defensively.
I think the reality has hit Miami.
They now, their defense had a pass rush and not much else, and now it doesn't have a pass rush.
Buffalo is a better team.
Josh Allen has eaten against Miami.
Like Brian Flores couldn't stop him.
Mike McDen, they just don't have the personnel.
I'm going to take Buffalo to win by a touchdown minus three sharper square.
Most interesting game on the board.
I'll tell you right now it's square.
But I will also tell you, you and I and our best friend, Simon, we're making an executive decision on this.
We're going to be in the foxhole together.
We like the bills in this spot.
Let me give you some interesting stats.
Tyreek Hill, by the way, House burns down midweek.
Look, you mentioned—
You tell me that's not disruptive.
Listen, you mentioned Chubb.
You mentioned the injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Tyree Kill has been playing injured.
Waddle has been playing injured.
I do think I am not a guy who like believes that there are emotional storylines that can be hindrances because these guys are professionals.
But look, Tyree Kill, there was video from practice.
He did not look like it looked like he was taking this as he should, which is scary and something that can be a distraction, right?
I agree with you in every respect on this game.
Here's something cool.
October 2nd.
So on October 2nd, Buffalo was minus 140 to win the 8.4.
AFC East, Miami was plus 138.
On December 3rd, two months later, Buffalo plus, well, let me get my glasses on here because I want to make sure I read it right.
I didn't know you were going to ask me this question.
So it just happens to be Buffalo plus 1,500 to win the AFC East.
Miami minus 400.
Okay?
So basically, for those listening, you don't know, Buffalo was such a long shot that they were not even a consideration.
to win the AFC East, Miami was so much, was expected to win so easily that you had to spend
so much money if you wanted to bet on them. Right now, Buffalo has the shortest odds that's had
all season, minus 165, to win the AFC East. It has been a roller coaster. What's amazing is Buffalo
could end up being the best team in the NFL right now, and if they don't win this game, they might not
make the playoffs. Okay, Seahawks minus two and a half at Arizona. So Seattle's humiliated,
And not only that, I always say, a well-coached team, a capably quarterback team that's physically humiliated.
I mean, literally Pittsburgh just threw them around.
They're like bullied them.
Seattle playing for a playoff spot, I think they're going to play very well here.
If the number was three, I would pass.
It's a numbers game.
Arizona's off, by the way, their best performance in two years.
They probably a little overvalued on the market.
I'm going to probably take Seattle minus two and a half.
I know I like favorites this week, Sharper Square.
It's a little square.
The number was it three, it moved down to two and a half.
It's hard to find a reason to like Seattle.
What they did against the Steelers, their inability to tackle anybody.
It was not, it was not something that was a one-off.
This has been their M.O. all year.
Like, they cannot tackle.
Watching Pete Carroll trying to implore his defense to tackle, Naji Harris,
was sad and sort of disheartening as someone who was kind of hoping the Seahawks would win that game.
So I don't like this bet, Colin.
I don't like it one bit.
And there are so many bets on the board that are attractive.
And you're throwing me the Jets and the Patriots.
You're the one who says to me your philosophy.
I want to bet on games I want to watch.
You want to watch these games?
Well, it's a limited week.
And I think Belichick will be interesting.
Okay, so now let's move into the two categories.
I have a Talk Me Into It game and a dumpster dive.
So I do think Bears Packers is interesting because I do think Iber Fluse and Justin Fields are largely playing for their job.
And although I do think Jordan Love had maybe his best game as a Packer, there's a desperation here on the Chicago Bears.
Employment's desperate.
And I would probably, I would probably take the Bears here plus three.
man, if I'm doing a show for my job,
that's a whole different ballgame.
Is that sharper square?
Colin, I need you to think that every day
your job is on the line
because you are taking the Chicago Bears this week.
That will be in your Blazing Five.
Chicago Bears plus three,
great matchup for the Bears.
So number one, it hits that trend I talked about
where you want to play the road team
against the home team in the division.
There is another trend going back to 1990 that hits it a 60% clip,
where the teams that are out of it playing teams that are in it cover 60% of the time.
Now, that's fine.
Again, take trends with a grain of salt.
You want to use them to sort of complement your overall philosophy, right?
Let's look what's happening on the field of play.
The Bears defense, since they got Montes sweat, lights out.
Not just like a good defense.
For the record, it was remarkable to do.
me to watch Chicago media crush their front office, wouldn't you give up a second round pick
for a dominating defensive lineman?
Dominating defensive linemen.
I mean, I didn't understand.
Like, Chase Claypools different.
There's a million receivers.
There's nine great defensive linemen in the league.
A second round pick?
Great trade.
Now again, talk about, great trade.
Talk about, talk about sort of your job being on the line.
The Bears GM, he made a great trade.
What does he do next?
And now this is where it gets interesting.
right. So that defense is elite. And by the way, what we saw last week in Minnesota with the Packers is Minnesota likes to blitz.
Jordan Love has 30 touchdown passes this year. He has been incredibly accurate and efficient against the Blitz. So they were set up to get blown out. The Vikings were set up to get blown out in that game no matter who is playing quarterback.
The Bears are not a team that is going to blitz you nonstop. They will get home with their front four. Their front four has also made their linebacking crew, especially T.J. Edwards, much.
better. And don't forget, Jalen Johnson, he's a Pro Bowl cornerback. Grading is one of the best
cornerbacks in the league, according to pro football focus. So their defense is stout right now.
Now you got Justin Fields playing against a defense for the Packers that has truly been terrible.
Forget about what happened on Sunday night, right? Forget about that. The Packers, since they beat
the Chiefs, and by the way, they got a little help from the refs in that game, what did they do?
They lost to the Giants, right? They gave up third.
30 points to the Carolina Panthers.
The Carolina Panthers have not scored more than three touchdowns since October 15th except for that game.
This is not a good defense going up against a very good offense.
A team in the Bears, seven and five the past 12 games.
Take the Bears.
One more talk me into it.
Arthur Smith, coaching for his job, plus three and a half at the Saints.
It feels like to me, the Saints are not, it's an offensive coach against the defensive coach.
It's a division rival getting over a field goal.
Atlanta, and I hate betting Atlanta.
They've been an ATM machine my entire life.
I just take money out and throw it into the wind.
But it feels like Atlanta plus three and a half, although I think the coach is getting fired Mondays to play, sharper square.
Totally sharp.
It's exactly the right side.
You want to be on Atlanta here.
Number one, fits the trend we just talked about.
You want to take the road team in the division.
Number two, schematically, look at the matchup.
You know Arthur Smith is coaching for his job, right?
The bucks lose, the Saints lose to the Falcons.
They are in the playoffs.
They win this division.
What is Arthur Smith going to do?
He's going to run the ball because that's where his best talent is.
That is where he is most comfortable.
That's where he can be most creative.
Get it to Algiers.
Get it to Bejan Robinson.
Don't let this be a game in which the quarterback ruins it for you.
The Saints running defense has not been very good.
Dennis Allen as a favorite, one of the worst coaches the past 20 years.
Derek Carr as a favorite.
He has not been above 500 as a favorite since before Donald Trump was inaugurated his president in 2016.
I'm not even kidding.
Okay.
You don't want to bet on the Saints as a favorite.
Just walk away and bet the Falcons.
Okay.
Now, we do a dumpster die, but,
Since most of the schedules, dumpster diving, I want to end this week with Michigan and Washington.
So I took Washington money line against Texas, and I took Michigan against BAM.
I went 2 and 0.
I do think Michigan matches up much better against Washington.
They don't give up cheap over-the-top touchdowns.
And I do worry, Kailen DeBore is a remarkable coach with extra time.
They don't have extra time.
So now you've got to play back to back against a superior team.
Washington heavily penalized.
Michigan never penalized.
The older team is Michigan.
They're the better team.
They have seven blowouts.
Washington just keeps winning narrowly.
I'm a husky.
I'm bow down to Washington, but I think Michigan wins this game by a touchdown.
I would swallow the four, four and a half, all odds provided by draft kings, sharper square.
I don't have a strong opinion.
I haven't gotten that much intel in the market of whether or not the wise guys are going to be on the Huskies or they're going to be on the Wolverines.
I don't want to mislead you in any way with that.
I don't disagree with your assessment.
And look, I love this Washington team.
I went to Indiana.
I'm a huge fan of Michael Penix.
The only time we've been relevant since I graduated college was when Michael Pennix was playing quarterback for half of three seasons.
because he couldn't stay healthy.
I think the guy got job, not getting the Heisman.
You put someone with that record, those stats,
the gauntlet of teams that he played in the SEC or the Big Ten
or even the ACC, he's winning the Heisman hands down.
I think he got robbed completely.
But I do agree with you.
Like, this Michigan team, they are unafraid and they beat people up.
And at the line of scrimmage, they are just so,
freaking physical, it is really daunting. And there is nothing like that in the PAC 12. And there is,
that is something that Alabama was used to seeing, like something, that combination of speed and
physicality. That doesn't exist in the PAC 12. So I do think that it'll be a quarter of,
of Washington being like, oh, even on film, we thought it was different, but it's different when
you're playing it. So I can't give you a specific side, but I do like you're an hour.
All right, my man.
You don't want to bet the Giants?
You don't want to bet the Panthers?
You don't want to bet the Titans?
Oh, gross.
I will say this.
I took the Giants against the Rams.
You know, I've said this before.
I think Tyrod Taylor is the best backup in the league.
That's my opinion.
So what's the number this week?
The Giants were five, five and a half.
I like the Giants.
A buddy of mine, we were talking about Tyrod Taylor,
and he used a great analogy.
He said, Tyra Taylor is like getting 19 at the blackjack table.
You're not going to get excited about it.
You got a pretty good chance at winning, but there's still a chance you can lose,
but you're comfortable with it.
You feel like you got a shot.
Yeah.
I thought that was brilliant.
And I'm stealing it and I'm giving it to you and I want you to steal it.
It is exactly who Tyrod Taylor is.
So I think, look, the Giants are more competitive with him.
They will want to win this game.
They will blitz.
The Eagles offensive line is in really struggling right now.
Their play calling is struggling.
A.J. Brown is struggling.
There's something going on.
We have seen it all year long with this locker room.
So I'll be playing the Giants.
And I will definitely be playing the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half.
I'm not even going to talk about that.
I can't.
They're unwatchable.
You can talk about Arizona and Seattle?
Yeah, but I love Kyler Murray.
So I love watching them play.
I love watching Kyler play.
Love him.
I really do.
Connor's great.
They're running back.
Kyler.
I can watch them all day.
Tennessee is like walking past the construction site.
It's just loud, overbearing.
I can't get out of it fast enough.
It's just gross.
Clanking.
Nothing good about it.
What about Minnesota, Detroit?
That's another one.
one that's fascinating. I stay away.
You know, again, it's, it's, it's, what's Detroit playing for?
I don't like those, I don't like these games where I wouldn't be shocked two series,
Detroit lead seven nothing, and they set all their starters.
Yeah.
They just wanted their guys to get practice.
That's why you're taking Minnesota in that game.
Ugh, Nick Mullins.
Nick Mullins lit them up.
Listen, Nick Mullins is the epitome of gambling.
If Tyrae Taylor is, is, you know, you.
know, comfortable 19.
Nick Mullins.
Nick Mullins is hidden on 16.
That is...
Nick Mullins is hidden on 16 when the dealer is showing 20.
Like, you are just going for it.
Yeah, but you know what?
A 16 is in Blackjack?
You're embarrassed you're holding, but you know you have to,
or the table disrespects you,
but you literally feel like I've lost all my testosterone.
I mean, you literally, every time I have a 16, I'm like,
you got to hit you.
hit a 16. But you can't because you're being judged at the table by all the smart people.
And that's how Nick Mulins plays.
I think he's a 12 is what he is. It's like he want to hit it, but not supposed to.
Well, all right, fine. All right, buddy. All right, man. Talk to you later.
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