The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Losing Parity, Deion’s Next Move? Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 13

Episode Date: November 28, 2024

  Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 13 of the NFL slate!   Plus they discuss some other huge football topics including the crushing pressure facing Ohio State and Ryan Day, where Deion Sanders ends up when he leaves Colorado, and whether the NFL is losing parity! 5:00 - Packers vs Dolphins 7:00 - Steelers vs Bengals 8:30 - Cardinals vs Vikings 11:00 - 49ers vs Bills 12:45 - Titans vs Commanders 16:00 - Texans vs Jaguars 18:00 - Lions vs Bears 28:00 - Chargers vs Falcons 30:30 - Seahawks vs Jets 32:30 - Buccaneers vs Panthers 34:00 - USC vs Notre Dame 40:30 - Ohio State faces crushing pressure 50:00 - Where will Deion end up after Colorado? 55:00 - Is the NFL losing parity? 1:01:30 - What Colin is thankful for Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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So I have, this is a weird week. I always try to, I'll bet individual games during Thanksgiving, but I think it's a tough week, short rest. Like, I'll give you an example.

I like the Packers minus three against the dolphins. I get, I think, a better roster at home, short rest. I think Miami and Tua's history and cold weather is, I was joking today on the herd. I'm like, there's a reason

Norway's great in the winter Olympics and not in the summer. Summer Olympics, there are truths about weather. Every NCAA Beach Volleyball Championship since it's been created has gone to USC or UCLA. If you go look at the history of dynasties in the NFL, starting with LaBardi, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, Kansas City, Steelers, Dallas, where, by the way, it snows during Christmas and San Francisco, which Mark Twain once said, the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco. There are no warm weather dynasties because eventually warm teams have to go north and it's just the

reality of somebody that grows up in the Keys does not want to live in Baltimore in the winter. So I like the Packers. I think the weather thing between a Hawaiian quarterback who went to the SEC than Miami, I think it's real, sharper square. So it's a little bit square. However, You and I are aligned. The line was at three and a half. It's come down. The wise guys have been betting on the dolphins. It kind of doesn't make much sense to me.

Tua, as you mentioned, as a dog in this spot, three and 11, I think, on the road against winning teams. Yes. So he does not have a good history here. And if you look at the three games he's been back, beat the Rams on the road, everyone was excited about it. They're not a winning team. They were not a winning team when he beat them. Then he just beat up on the Patriots.

The Patriots are statistically the worst team in the NFL. So you're getting Tua looking really good. And I admit, he looked great. And they've changed their scheme quite a bit. They're not throwing the ball downfield as much. They're throwing a lot more sort of in cuts that allow the people. players like Tyree Akil to really get yards after the catch. But going to Green Bay, it's going to be 25 degrees.

It's going to be windy. Matt LaFleur, schematically, one of the best coaches in the NFL. We've seen what he does when he doesn't have a quarterback. Just give the ball to Josh Jacobs. That's a strength against Miami's defense. I like the opportunity for Matt LaFleur, who I think is a better coach than Mike McDaniels. He's 60 plus percent against the spread as a favorite at home. I'm with you.

I don't get the move. I like the Packers. I'm just, I'm not, I'm not a buyer on Miami. So this line I didn't understand. There's a couple lines this week I didn't quite get. So the Steelers are a much better football operation than Joe Burrow and the Bengals. And I've talked about this before. The Bengals moved off Joe Mixon and defensive players before the Steelers.

before they paid T. Higgins and Jamar Chase. They're just a cheap franchise. Pittsburgh, awful loss, is going to be feisty. Pittsburgh as a dog is great. Burroughs wonderful, but not when he's sitting on the bench watching a run game dominate time of possession. I like the Steelers as a dog plus three. It's a much better team, Sharper Square. Yeah, of course, it's the sharp play. It makes no sense that the number is even, close to three. I don't get it. It's been bouncing around.

It opened a two and a half, got bit up to three, came back to two and a half. Because the wise guys know, Mike Tomlin, as a dog, 62% on the road. He is the best coach as a dog this generation, 20 years. He is 62% as a dog in the division on the road. 64% when the spread is between one and three. I do believe that a lot of people are just enamored with how Joe Burrow has been playing this year. He's putting up pinball numbers, right? But this is a terrible defense.

And while they've been off for two weeks, the Steelers have been off for 10 days, and it's a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. He makes these guys believe. And they're still in a position where they could win that division, so you're not going to want to lose an indivision game. I bet the Steelers on the money line. Another dog I like is Arizona plus three and a half, the Vikings. So off a buy, Arizona was a mess.

And a lot of it was Seattle got a consistent pass rush. I don't think Minnesota's pass rush will be that formidable. I also think Arizona, when they can run the ball, is a really, really effective team. I think they'll have a better chance to run the ball here. Arizona is inconsistent, but this is a team that has for the last five weeks. I mean, they went to Miami in one, and they went to Santa Clara in one. I think their personnel is better than people think.

They have elite players, Buda Baker's elite, Conner's elite. McGride is a tremendous tight-in. Kiler Murray's elite. They don't have big names on the Interior D-line, but they play well. They play above their weight. So I just think, I think this is a close game. Minnesota doesn't really bury people. Go look at the Jacksonville game.

Go look at the Chicago game. They're not Philadelphia. They don't blow over you. They make mistakes. They're missing their great left tackle. They're a good team. They're not special. They're well-coached with some nice playmakers.

But you watch the Minnesota game. That's a go-either-way football game. It doesn't look like either team is significantly more talented. And one is in turmoil. And you're like, I don't know, they kind of look the same. I'm taking the three and a half with Arizona, a sharper square. Eh, it's kind of an ish.

Like, there's no consensus, not a lot of interest, to be honest, from the wise guys. Like, there's some games on the board that the wise guys have planted a flag in the sand on. This is not one of them. A lot of the wise guys liked Arizona last week. They feel a little burned by what happened in Seattle. You still don't know. We said last week, they put all their cards on the table, right? Pun intended.

and they come off the buy, Kyler kind of looks disinterested. So what are you going to be getting the second week going against Minnesota, which still has a lot to lose? And you're right, they gave it away against the Bears. Like,

the Bears should not even have been close to turning that game into an overtime game. So they come out with a little more intensity this week. It's just a hard one to handicap. I think the line is kind of right, exactly where it is. Okay.

a favorite. I like Buffalo at home minus seven. Well-rested and waiting for a Niners team. Bosa didn't practice. Trent Williams didn't practice. I'm not sure if that locker room, I mean, if Bosa doesn't play, that's a very average D-line. Buffalo's rested. They're healthy. You know, they're a team that they're playing for the number one seed here. I, and by the way, Alan, the backup for San Francisco, that's not going to work. That's just not good enough. And, Brock Purdy, who never has a great arm, is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Again, this is not a guy with a whip to begin with. This is the rare, I think the Niners are living off reputation. I just don't think they're a very special football team. Five and seven in their last 12. I'm going to lay the seven. I like Buffalo, Sharper Square. Sharp. I mean, the wise guys have been bet in Buffalo. It opened at six and a half. It's got up to seven. I think the real question, why it sort of hasn't exploded. And we saw this last week with the Packers is Brock Purdy. What's his status going to be? So no one's going to overinvest until they get a real sense of whether or not he's going to be playing. I agree with you about Nick Bosa. If you

watch that game against the Seahawks, he was the difference. When he was playing, they were in control of that game. Gino Smith was harassed. He was making bad decisions and bad throws. When he was no longer playing in that game, Gino Smith goes on a drive in the final two minutes. that wins them in the game, and now all of a sudden is propelling saddle and Seattle and everyone thinking they're a super special team

and they can potentially win the NFC West. Nick Bosa not being there. And Trent Williams, those are massive, massive missing pieces. I like the Titans plus five and a half at the commanders. I think Cliff Kingsbury

does this. He, single guy, a lot of time in the summer, play some golf, and comes up with a new offense. And I think it fools people. And then all of a sudden, about mid-October to late October, if you look at his history in college or pro football, people catch up.

And then you're left with a September offense in November. And I just don't think the commanders, I mean, Jesus, it's like the Cowboys had the commander's playbook. They would flush Daniels out of the pocket, and there were guys just waiting for him. And I think Tennessee is really good upfront defensively, very disruptive. I think Will Levis still makes,

he's got that Will Levis, Carson Wentz, reckless gene. But you know what? I think he's played himself into another year starting, and I think you can sense it. I think he doesn't feel as apprehensive. I just don't,

I'm not giving up five and a half points for anybody against the commanders. I think they're just right now, an average roster, they have laid out their cards, everybody's seen them. I'm taking the five and a half, I think Tennessee is a tough physical team, as Houston found out, sharper square.

Yeah, you nailed it. It's totally sharp. The interesting thing here is the line moved from six and a half to six to five and a half early in the week. And for what we're talking about here, early in the week was really Monday. And that was a consensus professional move. I bet it at five and a half. It moved up a little bit to six, six and a half again, and now it's come back down. I couldn't agree with you more.

The Cliff Cliff, the Cliff Kingsbury Cliff midseason is real statistically, right? Texas Tech, they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose. Cardinals, they would get to the middle point of the year, they would lose. If you want to pack that, it's somewhat circumstantial, right? You could look at Texas Tech and be like, okay, they play Patsies in the beginning of the year. They get into the conference, the schedule gets harder. That's right, that's right. And the Cardinals, a couple times he had Kyler Murray injured, didn't have the full scope of his talent, and all of a sudden the team isn't as good.

But it's happening again. It's happening this time because Jane Daniels is injured and has been playing injured. And after that rocket start, the first four weeks of the year, he's barely completing 70% of his passes. After start with he was completing 80%, right? You look at the flip side and, yes, Tennessee, they have a very good defense. They've been playing better. last week they gave up eight sacks and Will Levis had a pick six and they still beat Texans who have a better quarterback than the Washington commanders. And I do think that this is going to be the worst defense Will Levis has faced this season.

And he has an opportunity here to be pressured a little bit less and get the ball, push the ball down field, which is what he's really good at. And that's when he's most comfortable. So, well, as guys are with you, that's a sharp play. know how many people will watch this. I like the Texans minus four at the Jags. I don't know what the Jags are playing for. I think it's a kind of a ugly, toxic locker room where people have bailed. I think the Texans off one of their worst performances of the year. It means a lot. They're playing for more. They're pissed off. They have an issue with protection, guard, center guard, but they've got just simply better players playing for more, and frankly, a better quarterback. If Trevor Lawrence

plays, he's not close to 100%. I think they have a coaching advantage, a coordinating advantage. This feels like my second favorite bet of the week. I'm going to take the Texans minus four at the Jags Sharper Square. Well, I wish you hadn't said it was your second favorite favorite. The wise guys are all over the Jags in this game. They love the Jags. They've moved from five to four and a half to four. Wow. Yeah, it's an interesting one. For me personally, I agree with you, it's a pass. I think the wise guys are looking at C.J. Stroud and thinking... He's average.

It's not that he's not progressing. It's that he's... The protection's terrible. Well, he's playing like a normal quarterback, right? And like, his interception percentage was so low last year that it doubles this year and all of a sudden it's at league average and everyone thinks, oh my God, there's something wrong with him. They're playing different defenses against him, so his coverage is different.

And he hasn't had his best players. And the offensive line protection is terrible, truly terrible. You can tell he's letting go of everything a second early, everything. Yeah. And he's also a gunslinger, right? Like he likes to let it go. He's not going to stop being aggressive. As he said last week, you ought to shoot your shot.

So I think that the wise guys are looking at this and saying, division game on the road, Jags' last chance to make a stand. If Trevor Lawrence is playing, they're sort of betting on the opportunity that he might be playing, and they thought the number was a little bit too high. So they're taking a piece of that while they can. Lions either minus nine or nine and a half at home against Chicago. So Detroit played by their standards poorly last week on the road and beat a pretty good roster soundly. Chicago's had back-to-back games, heartbreaking games where they really should win the game and they don't.

And I just wonder about their medal. I just wonder about how deep the reservoir of disembarking. disappointment is with Chicago. I also think when you play Detroit, you always play from behind. Now, maybe that doesn't affect Caleb Williams because he was very good behind against Minnesota. He's such a playmaker. But I could see this game becoming 3813 really, really fast. I'm going to swallow the points. Detroit minus nine, nine and a half, sharper square. Is this your favorite favorite? No, I like Buffalo as my favorite favorite. Okay. So the wise guys have been all over the bears. It went from 10 and a half to 10 to 9.5 to 9. As of Wednesday afternoon, it was at 9. I am shocked. I feel like this is a massive overreaction to the bears to two games of Caleb Williams playing well. Still not winning, but playing well. And by the way, in order to make that, game against Minnesota look halfway decent in the final score, he needed three miracle passes.

And I know you've been spending a lot of time on Caleb Williams this week and this season on the show. One of your rants from earlier this week is like lighting up my Chicago friends text chain because you've nailed every single component of this, especially about Matt Iberfluse. this is a terrible coach. He's a fine defensive coordinator. This is a coaching mismatch in a short week with a Lions team that got to really pull back on the throttle against the Colts and the Bears team that had to go into overtime to lose and now has to play the earlier game on Thursday. Like, how does this coaching staff turn it around, right? That's number one.

Number two, I believe being physical travels. It is the one thing that is consistent in football. Quarterbacks are going to have bad games. Receiver is going to drop passes. But when you can block at the line of scrimmage and dominate your opponent, that is the same every single week. And we saw it last week with the Lions. I loved the Colts last week.

The Lions go out and just beat up a very physical team in, the Colts. So now we've got a team in the Lions second overall in success rate, meaning they get a higher percentage of yardage on each down towards a first down than any other team except for one. Second in rush success rate. Second in rush expected points per rush, meaning do they get the number of points? Does the rush lead to a point on the scoreboard? It's the second best in the league. EPA, expected points overall. Third. The Bears, 26th in the NFL in rushing. Their rush defense is terrible. People want to talk about how good their pass rush is and could they do something to Jared Goff. I don't care because if it's third and eight for the Lions, they know they're going

to go forward and fourth down. They're going to give Jamir Gibbs the ball. And he's going to gain five yards and then they're going to go four on fourth and three. Like, I don't see it. This feels like just a massive mismatch. I think we're seeing something historical with the Lions. I think we're seeing something we see generationally. And I think wise guys here are playing a two-game sample size and betting against a number that I'm not buying.

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I always have a game every week. I want your expertise. So I think the Chargers are a better team than the Falcons. But I also think the Falcons are arrested. They're at home. And I think they're more explosive offensively. I feel like with the Chargers, and I've seen this now a couple times this year, because they don't have playmakers, Quentin Johnson officially can't catch, that they score basically on big drives, nine playtime drive, 10 playoff. drives, 11 play drives. Well, you're asking for perfect football. You know, Philadelphia can have penalties. Sequin Barclay rips off a 57-yarder, A.J. Brown over the top. You need freebies. You can't live on 12-play drives. And that's what the chargers have to do. And the middle of their

interior of their old line isn't good enough. So they get holding calls. They don't have receivers that separate. I'm guessing the sharps like Atlanta plus one at home. and forth, the line actually moved up from one and a half to two to two and a half. And I think that the sentiment is that people were actually impressed with the Chargers and that the difference in that game against the Ravens was J.K. Dobbins leaving the game. And it completely changed the tenor. And you're right about the offensive line, especially the interior of the offensive line. That's where the Ravens were getting pressure.

The Falcons can't get pressure. They're not the Ravens. They really can't get any pressure at all. And so that's not expected to be a factor for the chargers. I will tell you, it's sort of, and now the line has come back down, which tells you that the wise guys felt the line had gotten too high and there's been some buyback. And by the way, this is a very common thing.

There are a lot of professional betters who might like the Falcons and want the line to be a little bit different. So early in the week, what do they do? they bet on the chargers, say, five grand, ten grand, whatever, move the line up, and then when it gets to a certain point, they bet 50 grand, 60 grand on the Falcons, right? So they're paying a little bit of a premium to get the line to move so they can get better price on the team they really want. That could have happened this week.

I don't know. I haven't heard that, but it's possible. So there's no, it's a long way of saying there's no real consensus here on what this game should be. Okay, Chad, and there's always one that I missed. Seahawks at the Jets is interesting to me. I kind of like Kansas City, big favorite over the Raiders. I'll stay away. What's the one I missed?

Well, look, the wise guys like the Jets. I'm sorry to say. It's so interesting because on one New York team, you've got locker room turmoil, you've got quarterback intrigue, you've got players who are frustrated with the coaching, you've got an owner who is incredible, incredibly frustrated with how the personnel has sort of fleshed out.

And then you've got another New York team where the owner is basically entering his Montgomery Burns phase, right? He is taking a helicopter, landing it on the field. The GM is standing next to a coach when the helicopter lands and said, if I don't come back, it's been a pleasure to serve with you. And then the GM actually gets fired. And this is after the coach, the owner had fired the coach. coach without telling anybody. And after the owner had traded for a receiver without telling anybody and openly opine should we be benching Aaron Rogers.

And yet the wise guys, they've been betting the Giants, but they like the Jets a lot more against Seattle. I think part of it is like this is the time to grab a number that is overinflated on Seattle as much as anything else. So they're on that. The wise guys, of course they're going to be on the Raiders. It's not even. it's not even a question.

They were on the Raiders when the line was at 13.5, 13, 12, 12. It got that back up by the public because Aiden O'Connell was announced as the quarterback. The wise guys are now just going to wait, see how much more they can, how much of a better price they can get between now and kickoff on Friday. They're going to buy the Raiders. One team that I asked you to look at last week, Carolina Panthers. What's the line?

What's the line? The line is six. So the Carolina Panthers. Tampa Bay hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So the Carolina Panthers at home plus six against Tampa Bay. Yes. Well, I mean, Tampa. The wise guys like it.

I don't tell you. Well, Baker played perfect. So they come back down to Earth. I'll be honest with you. I think both Will Levis and Bryce Young for Tennessee and Carolina, respectively, in a weak college quarterback draft class have extended their starting franchise career one more year. I think Bryce Young and Will Levis

looked like, hey, let's give them another year. I think that's 100% accurate, which is what Bryce Young has been the past few games. And so, you know, in that Kansas City game, he was throwing darts and keeping them in the game. And every time you looked up, they were driving. And the Bucks defense,

it's not as good as Kansas cities. They're playing at home. Six points in the division is a ton. You're getting an inflation on the line because of what the bucks just did to the Giants. So the wise guys like the Panthers. And look, I love the Panthers to start the year and they burn me consecutive weeks. So I sort of stayed away from them and even publicly talking about them. I went back on them big last week.

And I was glad that I did. I'm a little anxious going back to the well and the Panthers again, but I have that the Panthers at plus six. I just feel like it's still a right spot. It's going to change, but I'm hoping that it doesn't this week. So I don't throw your curves,

but I want to talk USC Notre Dame, Notre Dame getting plus seven and a half. So early in the week, I like Notre Dame. Riley Leonard has cleaned up his game, no turnovers. Yep. They are a team that runs the football, USC not great defending the run. And I think they're well coached. I like their culture.

USC is playing a quarterback who started the year on the bench, completes about 55% of his throws, much looser and mistake prone than Miller Moss, but much more athletic. They can move the pocket, which Lincoln Riley historically likes. USC's got some really nice perimeter weapons. They're at home. No pressure. I mean, I mean, and I think USC, they beat L.S. They beat UCLA, and they had Penn State beat. They're not bad. Every USC game looks the exact same. It's close.

They lead in the fourth. Then they even lose to Maryland. So my take is I've gone back and said, you know what, they're going to lose, but I'm taking the hook. I'm taking USC plus seven and a half. What are the sharp saying on that? Yeah. If you're getting the hook at home, you should be taking it. That's sort of the tipping point in a game.

like this, the challenge with everything you've said is the college football playoff. Notre Dame is now fifth in the college football playoff rankings. Every game, every win, every margin of victory, every optic is going to matter going forward. And I know, like, they're locked in with Oregon and Penn State and Ohio State and Texas. Like those are the teams that the college football playoff is really thin. thinking about is one through four, but Notre Dame is still playing for something that matters in terms of positioning with the people, with the teams behind them. So that's what scares me a little bit about this game.

And USC, you're not wrong, but some of these games you're talking about, they were earlier and in the year, and they were a different team. And there's been a lot of turmoil with that organization the past month between the changing the quarterbacks between the fines, you know, people, the recruits who have been decommitting and going to other places. You know that USC team and culture much better than I do, but that feels like an organization where they need this to be a competitive game in a different way than Notre Dame does. And Notre Dame is playing for something right now that feels much, much bigger to me than what USC is playing for. I'm waffling here. You take the hook.

but it's not a game I want any piece of. All right. That's fair. Yeah, it's funny about this transfer portal. Colorado, LSU, and USC have used it a lot. And all three of them, the seasons always end disappointing. Why? Because in my opinion, this is one of my theories, that you can use the transfer portal to plug holes.

It's very hard to build a culture with all the interlopers and newcomers. And so what happens over the course of a season at USC, LSU, and Colorado when you face adversity is when you need a great culture. And they have better talent, but they don't have great cultures. They don't have guys that have been together for four years since high school. And so LSU, Colorado, USC heavy transfer portal. Whereas in Notre Dame, very little transfer portal, great culture with Marcus Freeman. They had an early loss that was awful. gotten stronger because their culture is better. So you look at these teams that had early setbacks

and setbacks can splinter locker rooms. And these heavy transfer portal teams, they all get bad at the end of the season. A lot of people start going their own way. The NIL guys are looking at the pros. So, Ole Miss, by the way, everybody loves Ole Miss. Yeah. What happens against an inferior Florida team? They don't play well. Guys now are going to start heading in their own directions. So that's what I think I've found from the transfer portal. I can think two things. I like it, but I wouldn't want to build around it.

It's important, but I don't want it to be my primary infrastructure. I'm going to give you an example that supports both sides of your theory. Indiana Hoosiers, who I went to Indiana. Yeah. I love them. I've been so excited for this team all year. obviously. Heavy portal. Gnetti. They used the transfer portal heavily.

But what they did was, they basically took the entire team from James Madison and plugged them in. So yeah, it worked for them. But the reason it worked for them is because they maintained a culture that existed with Kurt Signetti from where he was before and then brought it to Bloomington. And that's translated in a very successful way. And what's more interesting to me also about this is I think there is an opportunity for teams like Indiana who have been middling teams to get the fourth, fifth year seniors who want to keep playing college football. They might not be great NFL players, but they're incredibly effective, productive,

workmen like college football players. Yeah. And they're adults. So instead of the sophomore five star who's not getting any. playing time and is transferring from Texas to Ole Miss, they're getting the fourth year Mac quarterback who was really good and is time to see if he can stretch his game to the next level. And he's an adult. And that's just a different kind of player in college football.

I'm not saying now, Indiana has a ceiling on this. We saw it against Ohio State. You got to get athletes and people on the edge and all that kind of stuff. But I think you can build a really successful program through the portal. if you're getting guys who are just great college football players and not necessarily the highest ceiling athletes. Let me throw this at you, speaking of college football. Ryan Day is 66 and 9. Obviously, he's lost to good teams, Clemson, Georgia, Michigan three times.

You know, he's beating everybody else, beating the brains in. You know, again, lost to Oregon. Well, everybody loses at Opson except the ducks, right? So the one thing about Ohio State in the playoff that is really interesting, so people think, if Ryan Day beats Michigan, finally the wolves will scale back. But the next week, it's Oregon. You can't lose to Oregon twice with Ohio states.

So let's say he beats Michigan and Oregon. Oh, all the wolves are gone. But he loses to Tennessee in the first round. You're like, wait a minute. I saw who Tennessee lost to. Tennessee's not a great team. Let's say they beat Tennessee, but then lose to a, like, you know, a Boise State or they lose to an Arizona state or somebody else. He's going to get crushed.

Ohio State goes into the playoff. They're the only team in the playoff where every single game could potentially get their coach fired with a 66 and 9. And that duress, that pressure on Ryan Day and his staff, like people, want Sark to win. But Texas has stunk pre-Sark for about 20 years. They're happy as hell they're going to get into the playoff for the second year in a row, and they're just too damn good not to win a couple games. So if Sark wins two games in the playoff and loses, he's going to retain his job. No other team, no other coaching staff faces, oh, you've got to get to the final. And if they get to the final and lose an overtime to Texas, okay, if they go to the final and get blown out by

Texas, that's not good enough. So I think Ohio State faces this top-down pressure from their fan base. I mean, they went all in on the NAL. They spent like $20 million in the NAL. They went and got Chip Kelly. I don't know if you could win a national title with that sort of intense insular pressure. Well, he has to win the national title with that intense insular pressure because I don't think there is any other outs. If he doesn't win, they've built a coaching staff for it. They've built a roster for it. They have given him every opportunity. He has not been able to beat Michigan. He could not win in the national title experience a few years ago, right? Even though, you know, C.J. Stroud and they lost Marvin Harrison and like it was a difficult circumstance, they still couldn't win. So the fact is,

he is under the most pressure of any coach going into the playoff. You're not wrong. A lot of those coaches, like, whether they win or not, they're going to be fine for the next year. Ryan Day has not won enough at a school that expects nothing less than national titles. In fact, he's faltered in humiliating ways in the games that matter the most. If they go 10 and 1, 11 and 1, 12, 1 every year, and they don't beat Michigan and they don't win a national title, they're irrelevant. They're just another franchise. So couldn't agree more.

I had this conversation also about Nick Siriani. The Eagles, all of a sudden, they've won seven in a row. They're finally playing well. Like Sequin Barclay is going off. They, like the Lions, have a dominant offensive line. Their defensive line behind Jalen Carter is playing incredibly well. Their secondary, Cooper DeGene, like has been one of the top corners, Quentin Mitchell, one of the top quarters in the NFL in terms of coverage.

rookies, right? Nick Siriani goes to the NFC title game and loses. I don't think he's coming back. I think they'll look at it and say, this team's talent level is amazing. Yeah. We need a coach who can get us to the next level. So a couple coaches who run in spots like that. Did you know that feeding your lawn regularly builds a stronger, more resilient lawn that naturally crowds out weeds? Scott's turf builder products provide a year-round feeding with essential seasonal solutions for your lawn. They have a subscription plan that makes caring for your lawn easier than ever. They put their expertise to work by analyzing the location, size, and condition of your lawn to create a custom plan for your yard, and they'll ship you the right product to apply at the perfect time.

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We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toll. and our podcast point game is about defying the odds.

Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reed. he has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life,

one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS.

All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell? Hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that Ness was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45. How hard can it be? How hard can it be?

How hard can't be? Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, how hard can it be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out. loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of My Cultura Podcast Network

available on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country. From IHeart Podcast, Saigon.

Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Do you rate me?

They're pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. For freedom. Let's get out. Freedom from Vietnam. Run! Saigon, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict.

Sting, here's madness. The world should hear of. about this. There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So once they went to a second letter of intent day in college football and the transfer portal where you're recruiting your own players as much to stay as much as you are exterior players to enter, college football is not nearly as appealing. You get very little time off. You're dealing with the NCAA collectives, donors, presidents.

I mean, the collectives, you have to be a GM and you have to be a coach. So I always thought if I, like I asked Jimmy Johnson the other day, we were at Fox and I said, what was more fun, college or pro? He goes, oh, college is way more fun. I mean, you're connecting with young kids. You're changing their lives. He goes, you know, you go into 80 year games with a talent advantage. You got two or three big games.

It's fun. You and the staff can go grab pizzas twice a week. It's fun. NFL, you have to be a hard. ass. You're constantly dealing with a crazy owner. You're constantly having to be a tough coach on your coaches because they develop close relationships with players because players can stay eight, nine, 10 years in college you're running through players. They cycle through NFL, you know, a great defensive end could stay with you eight years. He becomes best friends. You know, they're going to

the weddings of the coaches and the players. So you're constantly have to be on your assistant coaches and coordinators to be hard asses. He goes, it's just a lot of work. And I thought, You know, Dion, if I said, Dion goes pro or Dion just upgrades to a bigger college program, because I don't think he stays at Colorado forever. I think it's a cool story. He doesn't need the money or the NFL pension, so it's not a money thing with him. He's going to make 8, 10 wherever he goes or more. But do you think he will follow his son to the pros or go to a bigger college job?

Let's just take staying at Colorado for 10 years off the table. He may, but let's take it off the table. I can see him going to an Auburn. I can see him going to like a non-traditional power, but like a good program, like an Auburn, that kind of thing. Where do you think Dion goes and why? Well, I know what I want. I want Dion in the NFL. I think it'd be fascinating as an experiment because how many players are as respected.

by his players as Deanne, right? He is a Hall of Fame athlete, not just a guy who's a great football player. He was a legendary athlete. He was doing things that will be remembered for generations. And a lot of the players he's going to be coaching were not alive when he was playing baseball and football. And he was going to the World Series.

And then he was playing in NFL games. I mean, the guy is just so revered. It'd be like Alan Iverson. coaching an NBA team. That's how revered the guy is. So I want to see if his ego and his strategy and his ability to motivate can do that at the NFL level with professionals, how long will it last? Jim Harbaugh, one of the problems Jim Harbaugh has had as a coach is that his tactics

and his personality starts to wear thin on the people around him. It's what happened in San Francisco. It happened a little bit at Michigan until he finally started winning a national title and started getting that team into the playoff. And then all of a sudden, he had the leverage to leave. So I don't know how long Dion could last doing what he's doing. Because I don't know if like I am fascinated by his videos and watching his motivational speeches for his team and watching how he handles the press.

And I think he's really good at it. And will that work as a molder of young men on players that. that are already adults and already making all that money. I think he's in a great spot in college. I hope that he knows it. I love it as a fan to see him in the NFL, but I got to think he knows how great it is in college

because he knows how hard it is to coaching the pros because he was that elite guy. Yeah. You know, can I throw one more thing at you? Because we're doing a little longer version today. I'll throw you. Let's do it. I love looking at great businesses and thinking, yeah, but there's a hole in the business, right?

Like there's a hole in the business. And so, you know, like, I'll give you an example. I worry that the NFL is becoming the NBA. So here's where it won't be the NBA. It won't be as international. Hockey, basketball get very international. We don't follow international leagues. a lot of these stars, you know, we don't watch Yokish play in March Madness.

He's a second round pick by the time he's a star, unless you watch the NBA nightly, you don't watch Denver. Whereas NFL will always have a great advantage over all the other sports is we watch college football. We don't watch much college baseball, college hockey, college basketball a little, but international players are half the guys drafted. So that'll never be a problem. But I do, I'm seeing something this year that the middle of the middle of the middle of the middle of the of the NBA has always been soft and the bottom is awful and large. That if you do not have two like really high-end players, you're not elite. So right now in the NBA, there's about six really good teams. The Knicks are really good. I think Cleveland, Boston, OKC, Denver,

Minnesota is really good, although that Julius Randall thing may not work. There's about six to seven teams I like. There's a very soft middle where you drop off to like the warrior. who are fun, but nobody thinks they can win a title. And the bottom is mostly the Eastern Conference. It's awful. It's 10 teams. Right now in the NFL. So I never thought about that.

I always thought the NFL was have-have-nots, but the have-nots were really small. You start looking at the bottom of this league now because once 10 years ago, the rules changed after the CTE lawsuit to protect quarterbacks. So it's a very offensive league. The final four coaches now several years in a row, all offensive guys. even guys like Zach Taylor, we don't know, are great coaches. Belichick looked completely lost. Pete Carroll, great defensive coaches.

You feel like they're tone deaf to the league. Mike Tomlin is having a good year, but for five years, he couldn't figure out the O line, the run game. And so the league now is, if you look at the teams we think can win the Super Bowl, it's mostly the same teams. It's Baltimore, it's Kansas City, it's Buffalo. I mean, now we look at Philadelphia. and there's a couple teams like Detroit's a surprise, but they have a Super Bowl quarterback in Jared Goff, is that the NFL's middle is getting larger,

the bottom is awful and getting larger, and that it's because if you don't have a star quarterback now, you can't compete by week 9, 10, 11. I mean, we were in week 11 and we're like, I think there's three teams tanking. Like, whoa, that's an NBA vibe that I never had in the NFL. So this is my take is that what you, the NFL will never be the NBA.

We watch it, we bet it. It has a domestic farm system that we love. But I do see this growing middle and bottom. And I mean, there are a lot of corner TV games every Sunday. Like, used to be one, it's now six. Yeah. Do you worry about this? Do you see this?

I do see this. As with all things, follow the money, right? If you look at the betting stats, four years, the strategy has been, fade the public. You know, just bet against whatever the public is doing. This year, you cannot do that. We've talked about this, right? What did a couple of the operators in their earnings calls at the end of Q3 had to downgrade the revenue expectations for the year,

by a combined $300 million because of what they deemed, euphemistically, customer-friendly outcomes. What that means is that the favorites, the teams that the public bets on are crushing. And that happened starting in October and is continued into November. So that's one way to look at

is the teams that are really, really good are winning by really big margins. And that is not how it's, has historically been because the delta between the really, really good and the mediocre was still not as big as it is now. That's number one. I do think that these NFL games, they are becoming unwatchable. And you're getting a sense from the announcers about this, like the number of penalties

that are about procedures that are impacting the game and changing the flow and changing sometimes the outcome and changing a scoring play and taking some of the excitement out of the game. I don't know what the NFL does about that because they are always talking about emphasizing certain plays. They want to emphasize where the offensive linemen are lining up so they're at the belt line of the center. They want to make sure that offensive linemen aren't going too far down field, but everybody likes to run these RPO's and it's impossible for an offensive of linemen to keep their positioning within two yards of the line of scrimmage. But these penalties are killing the viewing experience as a fan.

So that's two. Number three, it is a terrible live experience. And, you know, a few weeks ago, I did this with my kid. We went to Nick's Bulls at MSG in New York. The next night, I did a show with you, and then right after, we went to Commanders, Eagles at the Lincoln, Philadelphia. And then the next day, we took a tour of University of Maryland. We took the train down to D.C., toward Maryland.

And then we went to the Maryland Marquette game that night. The basketball experiences live were so much better than the NFL experience. It is faster. It is more exciting. My wife loves going to NBA games. It's like the NFL game, there was three seconds of action, and then it's a commercial break, and then you're waiting for two minutes, and then it's a penalty, and then you're waiting for two minutes.

And it's just like, let's have a game here, guys. And so, like, look, it's all a straw man argument. The NFL's not going anywhere. The NFL is only going to get bigger. It is going to get somewhat international. The NBA will never be as big as the NFL. It is going to suffer on Christmas Day when the NFL has games. And the NBA used to own that space.

But the NFL is going to have to come to and understand. of what this television experience is, because if there is this gap between the good teams and the bad teams, and every game is going to be a blowout, and every game is going to take three and a half hours because there are so many penalties, eventually, it might not be our lifetime.

The worm is going to turn. Chad Milman. All those odds provided by Draft Kings, by the way. This is a good long one. I enjoyed it. Happy Thanksgiving. I'm... I'm thankful for a lot of things.

You know what I'm thankful for? Tell me everything. Sports. Family, health, sports, good friends. You know, it's funny. I told somebody the other day, I said, I said, I've always been sort of odd socially. I said, I think I'm getting better at that. If I die tomorrow, I know at least 11 people that would go to my funeral.

And last year, it was only like six. So I'm really, I'm really starting. to be, I'm growing as a human being and I'm thankful for that. Well, there's a comfort level as you get older. I am thankful for all those things as well. And like, I've got a great life. I have nothing to complain about. It's like, I can't believe how wonderful things are.

Yeah. But what I have found, similar to you, socially, I like, I'm not, like, I don't love going to parties. Yeah, same. And I don't love, like, going out to dinner. But I do it. And, like, there are always points in the evening where I'm like, all right, I got to go. And I'll say it like, you know, right as dessert is the last bite of dessert is.

I'm like, I got to get out here. I got to go. And my wife, Stacey, he'll be like, I can't. Like, you just can't do it. And I found myself this past weekend, we were out with friends that we both have, mutual friends. and we were just relaxing and I was enjoying and I was hearing stories and I find myself having a lot more patience and being a lot more interested in listening to people more. I don't know what's going on, but I don't mind it. And if it means I get 12 people at my funeral, fantastic.

Yeah, Chad doesn't know what's happening, but he's interested in other people's thoughts now and he doesn't know what to make of it. That's funny. just summed it up. Yeah. What is it? It's like in Seinfeld. What is this salty discharge coming from my eyes? Like, why is Chad showing interest in other people?

What is happening here? I'm so true. I'm such an asshole. No, you're my favorite people. That's it. You're honest. All right, brother. Have a great Thanksgiving.

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Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?

That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed.

And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit Season 2 is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority of Black City, in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager.

And we've got a new show called The 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.