The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 10 Picks and Betting Breakdown, "Fake Q's, Real Answers" on OBJ --> Rams, Cam --> Panthers

Episode Date: November 12, 2021

Colin leads off with Fake Questions, Real Answers on the story behind OBJ to the Rams (3:00), why Cam to the Panthers may be the start of some major changes in Carolina (5:00), why the fine for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers wasn't too low, the real reason people want Cincinnati in the College Football Playoff, and Colin's pushback on the "go woke, go broke" narrative. Then, The Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 10 bets are sharp or square. They make picks for Vikings/Chargers (13:00), Browns/Patriots (16:00), Lions/Steelers (22:00), Panthers/Cardinals (25:00), Saints/Titans (28:00), Seahawks/Packers (30:00), Falcons/Cowboys (32:00), Rams/49ers (33:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It's the Friday morning Colin Coward podcast. Fake questions, real answers. Then we get to Chad Millman. These are things I want to talk about and don't want to wait for you to ask me the questions. Fake questions, real answers. Dear Colin, OBJ, Simon of the Rams, even though reports say the Packers were his preferred destination, and he didn't think they were all in as the Rams. What do you think happened here?

Well, I was told two days ago the Packers did make an offer, but it wasn't an aggressive offer. But I think the Packers, A, wanted to cover their butt. Aaron Rogers sees OBJ flourishing with another team. the Packers can say, Aaron, we made a run at him. Packer fans and media critical of OBJ flourishing somewhere else. Hey, we made a run at him. I think that's part of it. I was told the Packers did not make an aggressive move to get him.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing. I'm not criticizing the Packers. I don't think he is close to a number one ride receiver. He's brittle. He had a case of the drops in Cleveland. I also think he likes L.A. He's got a house here. He's close to LeBron James.

and his crew. And I think there's a lot of people that believe OBJ will end up working on some outside of football shows and productions with LeBron James. They're friends. And LeBron's friends are friends with OBJ. But Green Bay once again fails to land a big free agent. They're going to protect themselves so they don't get ripped by the media fans or Aaron Rogers. Hey, we made a run. Hey, can you blame him?

He owns a house in L.A. That's an easy sell to the fans in Aaron. Dear Colin, Cam Newton to the Panthers, you seem to think this could be the start of some big changes in Carolina, don't you? Well, I think it's something interesting to discuss. Nick Saban's first year in the NFL hit a winning record. Then the quarterback situation went sideways. Even Nick Saban couldn't win, bailed Alabama. Brian Flores, reasonably viable at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

First year the rebuild looks good. Quarterback goes sideways. Brian Flores looks like he can't coach. You all get it, right? You can't win in this league if you're not settled at quarterback. Bill Belichick, best coach of all time. Brady leaves. They get Cam Newton late in the pandemic.

Sub-500 record. All I am saying with Matt Ruhl, he would be coach of the Panthers the number one choice for Florida, LSU and USC. Okay? He took over Temple. They went two and ten to six and six. than 10 and 4. He went to Baylor,

1-11, 7, 6 to 11 and 3. Master's degree in educational psychology. I don't know what that means exactly, but I have a feeling he's good at handling students. So this is a very impatient owner. I think Matt Ruhl understands the NFL. The quarterback situation right now for the Panthers is an absolute mess. I can tell you this.

USC will call on Matt Ruh. They will absolutely, I've been told, make a run at Matruel. It may be an hour run, but they'll make a run. Dear Colin, people are angry. Aaron Rogers only got fined about 14,000 for violating COVID protocols. Why aren't you as angry as everybody else? Well, first of all, I'm not as angry as everybody else.

That's your first answer. Secondly, timing matters. So last year, at this time, the NFL went after the Saints and Raiders and took away a draft pick, although both appealed and got the pickback. But let's be honest about it. This time last year, we didn't have a vaccine. Stadiums were either empty or had limited capacity. We were still learning to live in a pandemic.

We were moving games regularly. Now you've got 80,000 people next to each other. 72% of America is vaccinated. 90 to 95% of locker rooms are vaccinated. Got to be honest about this. A year ago, leagues were much harsher on their penalties. This year, you find Aaron Rogers, 14,000, you find the Packers, 300 grand. I'm not saying you should walk around as an unvaccinated player not wearing a mask at the podium.

But a lot of what we're seeing in this country now, when you consider the vaccination and booster rate, feels a little cosmetic. And I don't think the league wants to spend a lot of time looking at security cameras inside the Packer's Packers organization and counting the opportunities they have to fine Aaron Rogers. Listen, he missed a game. He lost a sponsorship. Many feel he was publicly humiliated. He paid $14,000 in fines. That's a lot more than the average parking ticket.

And the Packers got a $300,000 fine. That feels reasonable to me. Let's be honest. The league was in a completely different situation a year. ago than they are today. Dear Colin, when people say they think Cincinnati should make the college football playoff, is it because they genuinely think Cincinnati can win a title, or is there some deeper psychological reason behind it?

Wow, what a thoughtful question. Listen, no sane person thinks Cincinnati is going to beat Georgia or Alabama. People just don't like the four-team system because then they have to accept the harsh truth that only four programs can win a title. And let's be honest, the rotation. in the last several years has been Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State. It's the same reason people vote for a Green Party. They don't really believe their candidate's going to be a Republican or a Democrat.

They don't like to accept that only two parties stand a chance, and it bothers them, because they don't feel there's a party paying attention to their needs. And that's the truth. We all know Alabama and Georgia would clobber Cincinnati. Vegas knows it. You know it. I know it. But what people don't like is the current system, the lobsided nature of it, and the fact that we all know we'll probably have to watch another SEC team get crowned.

Dear Colin, there's a saying that's become popular in recent years. Cancel culture or go woke, go broke. What do you make of these? Well, thanks for asking. A lot of these sayings don't make a ton of sense to me because, Because, for instance, the cancel culture, Ben Shapiro, Bill Maher, Tucker Carlson, Ben Shapiro, and Colter, they're some of the strongest voices in politics, and their ratings and book sales and Q ratings have gone up. They're certainly not being canceled, and they're wildly outspoken and often harsh critics of politicians, our president, directions of our current cultured. As far as woke broke, here's all I know.

I went and looked up Forbes' richest cities in the United States. Number one was San Jose Santa Clara. Two was San Francisco Berkeley. Three was D.C. Four was Bridge, Port, Stanford, Norwalk, Connecticut. Five was Boston. Six was Seattle. Seven was Napa.

Nine was Santa Cruz. And ten was Boulder, Colorado. Now, I don't know about Thousand Oaks, California. That could be conservative. but I think nine of ten are left to extremely left. It seems to me the people going broke are in small, right-leaning rural towns. Instead of go woke, you go broke, I'd say if you go alt-right, budgets get tight. Whokeness is a business, and some would argue a smart business move.

A lot of businesses might be going woke because they do believe in it. But let's face it, they also know they're targeting customers who will like that message. Many people say Colin Kaepernanke is woke. Well, Nike signed him, and its stock reached an all-time high. But if you tell me that woke is broke, then why are nine of the ten richest cities in America as left-leaning as almost any cities in the country? Boulder, D.C., San Jose, Berkeley, Seattle? Santa Cruz? Folks, if you are tied to technology and most of those cities are, you are getting

really rich and in affordable for the average American. Silicon Valley has always leaned far left. The counties and the cities struggling are overwhelmingly rural and right leaning. All right, my buddy, Chad Millman every Friday, Chief Content Officer Action Network. Okay, let's start with this. This is an interesting one. I don't know how I feel about it. I want your interpretation. So there are teams in this league, and it's often teams with young quarterbacks who I think are harder to evaluate because they're a different team today than six weeks ago.

And we'll be a different team in six weeks than today. Chargers are one of those. I think Minnesota plus two and a half is to play with the Chargers. That's my takeaway. Kirk Cousins tends to be productive. This is a team that's been in games with excellent teams. And just situationally loses those games. What worries me about betting against the Chargers is that I believe they beat Philadelphia last week.

They wouldn't have beaten them a month ago and would beat them more severely a month from now because I think Herbert and that offensive line are getting better and better quickly. But I do think Minnesota is the play here, sharper square. it's sharp uh the line has actually moved from two and a half to three and a half two very specific reasons for that having nothing to do with the handicap itself that's because um there have been some covid positives there was a COVID positive on the Vikings so i think there is some there is some hedging against there just might be more players that test positive over the next few days that impacts the roster. And also the Dalvin Cook situation, right? There's been reports the past couple days about domestic violence. His girlfriend saying about him, him saying

about his girlfriend. So there's just some questions about what the roster is going to look like on Sunday. But if you were handicapped in this game on Monday before any of this news came out, this is a sort of old school versus new school debate and you'd be on the side of the new school sharps in that old school guys will say the only stat that matters is in the W column. And in that respect, the Vikings have fewer than the Chargers. The new schools guys will say everything points to the Minnesota Vikings being the better team except the win column, right? They, just had really, really, really bad luck. Well, the Chargers started, and when I say bad luck, I mean that's provable bad luck, right? Things have gone wrong in games that aren't things you can

define through stats. It's through sort of fluky plays. Where the Chargers, they started out the season gangbusters on third down conversions and fourth down conversions. And we all said there's going to be regression. We said it before the Ravens game. They got killed by the Ravens. And you haven't seen them get back to that level since then. So that's why the Vikings are the right side, but the line has moved against them because of the personnel issues. My favorite bet of the week may be Browns plus two against the Patriots. These two teams have somewhat similar identities. They would prefer to run the ball, limit their quarterback, win time of possession. They play very good defense. The difference is Baker's averaging almost

13 yards per completion, tops in the league. There is an over-the-top component with Cleveland that New England doesn't have. I also think, and I really believe this, I think Baker's a better quarterback without the pressure of OBJ. It sounds ridiculous, but I thought DAC was better immediately when Dez left the locker room, even though Dez was a touchdown machine. I think Cleveland has a much better team with an over-the-top dimension New England doesn't have. I think the Patriots are a little overvalued because Darnold injured against Belichick. That's always going to go Bill's side.

I'm going to take the Browns plus the points, sharper square. Sharp. The only thing I would say here is you can afford to wait. The line opened at one. It's been bad up to two. It's at two and a half. I think it might get to three because the public is all over the Patriots. They love the Patriots for everything you just said.

Way over a valued. And I agree with you about Baker Mayfield and OBJ and the stats back it up. Forget about opinion. He averages a yard more per pass attempt. And he averages his completion percentage. It's about five or six points higher without OBJ when he's not on the field. Then when OBJ is on the field. And it speaks to a lot of the stuff that you like to talk about with Baker, which is he's not a quarterback who can sort of improvise, right?

He needs receivers to do what they are supposed to do. he goes through his progressions very well, and OBJ is a guy who improvise. And so when he's not doing what he's supposed to be doing, it puts Baker in a jam, right? And the both top running backs right now for the Patriots are in the concussion protocols. We don't know if they'll play. And while we know there's no Kareem Hunt and no Nick Chubb, we know that the Browns, it's similar like what the Broncos used to do and what the 49ers have proven they're able to do. They've got a system that allows for running backs to compete on a Sunday. It might not be Nick Chubb with his skill set, but you're going to get a running back who does well against a Pat's defense that is still middle of the pack

against the run. And then the key things here are about pressure, right? Baker and Mack Jones are both bad against pressure. The Browns can get pressure. The Patriots cannot get pressure. And we saw with Mac Jones last week, they won that game against a Panthers team that a lot of people liked as four-point underdogs, not because of Mac Jones. They won it because Sam Donald stinks. And so you're right in that people are looking at the final score overvaluing the Patriots, not looking at the underlying metrics. Brown's at the sharp side. Hi, it's the herd for Fandle.

Monday night football matchup Rams, Nyners. Rams are minus four. I probably take the Niners plus four. It's a divisional matchup. It's perhaps Garoppolo's last start. He's fighting for his job. In this matchup, Kyle Shanahan has had Sean McVe's number. I do think the Rams were embarrassed.

I would not be surprised if the Rams won and covered. but listen, same game parlayes. There's a lot of different things you can go here. I would probably take the 49ers and the under because I don't think the 49ers can win a shootout, and I think the 49ers know they can't win a shootout. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

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Jared Goff's completion percentage. Take a look, everybody. It's like 67, 68%. Jared Goff's passer rating. He's had multiple, you know, over 90, somewhere in the 95 range in many of his starts. Jared Goff is not an elite quarterback. But he's also better at throwing. a football that I think people view him.

I think people view him as a complete stiff, and he's really not. He's not going to win a lot of games with this roster. I'm not looking for a win here. Eight points for a Steeler offense that literally, if you look at the Big Bend numbers on air yards per attempt, and this is not a dim or a weak receiving court, there's some talent here on this offense. They have a star rookie tight end. They have a very nice rookie running back. They have a couple of really productive wide receivers.

This is a poorly quarterback team. I think Detroit Plus 8 is the sharp side. Your thoughts? Love it. 100% the sharp side in this game. It is too many points for a Steelers' offense that is just not very good in any way. And they have proven it again and again and again. Rothberger just is not a very good quarterback.

I like that the Lions' offensive line is getting a little bit healthier. And it was an offensive line that was probably the strength of the team before the season began and some injuries started to pile up. But this is really about what you said, which is it's just too many points. And the game opened at 9, got that down to 8 and a half, got bet down to 8. That tells you that the money that the wise guys are coming in on the Lions here. What's really interesting is it's just too many points for the Steelers to have. to score against the Lions team where we make fun of Dan Campbell for, you know, we're going

to keep fighting, we're going to bite the kneecaps and whatever. But he truly has his team playing like that and they're wild cards. They're a dangerous cornered animal, right? They've had two weeks off. They will do anything. They will pull out anything. They have nothing to lose because they've lost everything. I would not want to be betting on the Steelers with the Lions having the opportunity to backdoor this game in the last three minutes. All right, I've been going once a week with a big favorite. I'm two and one one on big favorites. So the one big favorite that interests me is the Cardinals minus 10 and a half hosting the Panthers

who are an absolute tire fire at quarterback, but it's more than that. Is that what we learned with Colt McCoy from the play calling from Cliff Kingsbury, they didn't really alter the playbook. They coached much more aggressively with a backup quarterback on the road than the Niners did with Jimmy Garoppel at home. Is that Colt McCoy, though fundamentally limited, is athletically a little bit like Kyler. Small moves around well. Now, Kyler's a much better athlete with a much bigger arm. But they can run most of their offense with Colt McCoy.

And we saw that with confidence against the Niners. This is a really bad offensive front that will be. starting a backup. These blowouts are covering more and more. If I had to rule the dice, I take the Cardinals as a big fave. They're also in a division battling the Rams. This is not a team that's going to overlook anybody. Probably a square, but I like it. Yeah, you're a square. You're 100% a square. I'm surprised you didn't say the Cowboys, because if you were betting a big favorite, I would want to bet on the Cowboys this week as a big favorite versus the Panthers and the cards. there's a lot of, this thing is like blasting signals that says the Panthers at plus 10 and

half. Here's a stat, okay? The Cardinals have fumbled the most in the NFL this year. They've also lost the second fewest fumbles in the NFL. Meanwhile, opponents are fumbling the second most against the Cardinals and they're losing the most fumbles against the Cardinals. What that is telling us is that there is a massive amount of lucky bounces going the Cardinals way. And we talked about this last week, right, with the Broncos and the Cowboys, you're like, what do you think of the Broncos and the Cowboys? And I'm like, I don't love

the game. If I had to bet it, I'd bet on the Broncos because there's a regression coming and the Cowboys have been living on defense by turnovers. The Cardinals are living on defense on turnovers. Their rush game, their rush defense is 31st in the league. from a yards per rush basis, what do we know Carolina is going to do? We know they're going to run the ball. We know Christian McCaffrey is back. Matt Ruhle has said, we are going to run the ball. Kyler Murray might not play. DeAndre Hopkins might not play. A.J. Green might not play. The Carolina Panthers secondary is really becoming one of the better secondaries in the NFL. And if you look at a goal, let's go back to the fumbles for a second, when the

Cardinals beat the Niners last week is because the Niners kept fumbling early in the game. When the Cardinals beat up on the Browns in that surprising game early in the year, the Browns kept fumbling early in the game. This Cardinals team, you can find nobody who says, oh yeah, this is a dominant team. This is the team we think is going to go to the Super Bowl. They are what dominant teams have been in the past. Nobody says that. They say they've got good metrics and they've had really, really good luck.

I would take the Saints plus three at the Titans. Now, that sounds crazy, but this is going to be a very, very low scoring football game to two very, very good pass rushes to excellent defenses. Like right now, the Titans defense is we bring four, we don't blitz, we mix up man in zone in the back end, and it's very effective. I think this is an ugly game. I think the Saints have been a team that you don't quite know what you're getting and they were completely outplayed by Atlanta. Disregard the score. They were absolutely outplayed by Atlanta. The Titans come off a wildly dramatic win, feeling themselves a little bit.

Saints plus three feels like the play to me. Yeah, I love this one. This is completely sharp, so sharp in fact that it's moved from Saints plus three to Saints plus two and a half. Full disclosure, I still bet it at Saints plus two and a half. This, you talked about overreaction earlier. This is the overreaction game. of the week. And like, I'm looking at the numbers right now at actionnetwork.com. I can see,

uh, the bets, uh, completely coming in on the Titans and yet the line moved in the direction of the Saints. It's called the reverse line move. That tells you that the professional betters are coming in on the Saints. Total overreaction. And it's because, look, the Titans had a fluky win against the Colts. The Titans did not look impressive against the Rams. Matthew Stafford just looked at bad against the Titans. And this is where, like, the underlying metrics really get interesting. DVOA, very fancy way of saying this is how teams are judged based on their effectiveness on each play against the league average. So overall, Titans are 14th and DVOA.

Saints are eighth. On offense, they're both middle of the pack, 16th and 17th respectively. on defense. Titans are 10th, Saints are third. You could argue the Saints have the best defense in the NFL right now. And the Tyson's Rush defense is at the bottom of the league. So you can expect more Taysom Hill, more run packages, an elite offensive line that can protect Trevor Simeon on short passes where he's effective against a not very good past defense. And then you've got Sean Payton, who I think has the coaching edge over Mike Rable, second most profitable coach against the spread since 2003 coming off of a loss.

All right, two games. One, I'm not going to bet, but I have a feel for it, but I don't like the number. And then you give me your game of the week, which I haven't talked about. I think Green Bay matches up brilliantly with Seattle. I think Seattle's number one issue is a playmaking safety who can't cover in space Jamal Adams and bad corners. I think Aaron Rogers is one of the few quarterbacks in the league that could be in on Zoom meetings, not practice, and be fine.

I think Green Bay matches up very well with Seattle. Now, I will say Russell Wilson has been a very good road quarterback. And Russell Wilson, remember when Drew Breeze got hurt, came back and looked better and had a stronger arm? Russell just got a month sabbatical in the middle of the season. So part of me thinks Russell Wilson's coming back here with so much energy and they're going to go on a roll now against the Green Bay team that's had a noisy week. but man, I love the way Green Bay's offense matches up with Seattle. What's the sharp side? The sharp side is Seattle plus three and a half.

And the line has been moving down. It was at five. It got down to four and a half. Then it got down to four. Now it's at three and a half. I think there's a large sentiment that likes Russell Wilson coming back for what you said and that he's just not a quarterback who gets blown out. in a game like this where Green Bay's defense has been overperforming against the stats that they've

had throughout the year. So there's a little bit of a regression coming there. A big factor is Aaron Rogers. You say he can work on his couch, watch film, do whatever. We've seen in the past, like, we don't know how athletes react to COVID yet. And while Aaron Rogers is certainly a critical thinker, is his body going to be as different as his mind? when he comes back from COVID. Cam Newton did not perform well

coming back from COVID. Literally takes your breath away. Lamar Jackson had a hard time coming back from COVID. We looked in the NBA. Jason Tatum, when he had COVID last year, had a hard time recovering for the Celtics.

It impacts your lungs. So I am not convinced that if Aaron Rogers is back, that he's going to be at peak level, even if he is on the field. So for me, Russell Wilson coming back, Aaron Rogers, questionable to coming back, but after an illness that was really unpredictable.

I like the Seahawks and sort of the wise guys. All right. Give me the game I haven't talked about you're interested in. There's so many, by the way. A little bit the Cowboys. I love them in this spot at minus eight against the Falcons. I think it's a get right game for the Cowboys. I think there's too much of a reaction to the Falcons beating the Saints.

The Falcons are just not that good of a team. what they will do offensively plays to the strengths of the Cowboys' opportunistic defense. But the game that's getting a lot of conversation, a lot of conversation. Let's hear it. Niners posting. Oh, no. I like the Niners plus four. I do.

All right. Well, we didn't talk about it. So I'm telling you, this is the one that's on the board for me that we didn't talk about. This game, most games, most wise guys have this game power rated at Niners minus one. So you're getting like five to five and a half points of value on a nine. team that is continuing to get healthy and is just fluky, right? They lost last week because they had so many freaking turnovers. So when we do sharp calls on the favorites podcast, this was the game all the wise guys talked about between Tuesday and Thursday. They're like, we love the Niners.

We love the Niners. It was the game that was getting bet the most on Sunday night when lines first open. So a lot of conversation in the Wise guy community about the Niners plus four. Well, you know, the other thing, Shanahan's had McMay's number a little. OBJ now to the Rams. I wonder if they just waste time putting in packages a couple of days this week. I honestly think about that. You could see it, right? You could totally see like they're over-excited for their new toy.

How are we going to take advantage of it? We're going to be the ones who are smarter than everybody else. How much talent have you seen in your life in media now running a media operation? Oh, this guy's so good. nobody else knows how to manage him. I can figure it out. It doesn't really work out like that. People are who they are. Bill Belichick is the only person in history who's been able to bring malcontent talent and turn it into something that works within a framework of the team. And it's because he had Tom Brady. Matthew Stafford is not Tom Brady. I would be shocked if OBJ turns into the

long-term Hall of Famer because he's on the Rams. All right, Milliman, have a great weekend. This is good stuff. I learned a lot today. Thanks, buddy. Well, I'll be here to help. See it. All right, everybody. Chad Millman, go to our YouTube page, Instagram, rate, review, subscribe, at the volume sports. Enjoy. The volume.

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