The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 11 Picks and Betting Breakdown, "Fake Q's, Real Answers" on Cowboys and Kyrie

Episode Date: November 19, 2021

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" on the struggling college program that could make the quickest comeback (3:00), the most interesting potential storyline for Kyrie and KD (5:00), whether it's wrong to mock Zion for his weight gain (6:00), the Super Bowl winner that would confuse everybody (7:00), and why the NFL continues to dominate sports talk (8:00). Then, The Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 11 picks are "sharp" or "square". They make their picks for Steelers/Chargers (11:00), Washington/Panthers (13:00), Ravens/Bears (15:00), Cowboys/Chiefs (16:00), Cardinals/Seahawks (23:00), Saints/Eagles (25:00), Giants/Buccaneers (26:00), Packers/Vikings (29:00), Dolphins/Jets, (31:00)Texans/Titans (32:00), and Colts/Bills (33:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Why is it that the oldest child grows up with the strict rules, but the younger ones get away with everything? Back then, it felt like your parents are playing favorites, right? But you know who doesn't play favorites? AT&T. They believe that everyone should get the same treatment. That's why AT&T is giving all of their customers, both new and existing. the same great deals, no matter who came first. Whether you've been with AT&T for years

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There's a lot of reasons. It's America's number one sports book. Incredibly easy to use. Super safe, totally secure. Super fast payouts in as quick as two hours. You're not going to get that anywhere. Also, same game parlay bets, live betting. It's the best.

Hey, if you're new, just download the Fan Duel Sportsbook. app. I did it in 15 seconds. Get started now. Sign up. Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-I-N. Fandul-Sportbook app, sign up. Hi, everybody and welcome to the Friday morning podcast off a blazing week of picks, Chad Millman, in 10 minutes. First fake questions, real answers. I got stuff I want to talk about. I don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, of all the struggling college powerhouses, LSU, USC, Florida, Miami. Which one do you think has the best chance to bounce back?

This is interesting, and I was asked this the other day. USC. Why? Because it's in the weakest conference. The Pact 12 is so bad. LSU and Florida could get a B plus coach and still struggled to win the SEC. Miami, I don't think is a good job. But think about USC for a second.

Clay Hilton was thought of as mostly a near disaster. and he won 66% of his games, 73% in the PAC 12, won two bowl games, and had two seasons with 10 plus wins. He only had one losing season in six full years, and he was one in one when they fired him. The PAC 12 is so weak that USC could hire a B coach,

and their only challenge for the conference title would be Oregon. Dear Colin, what's the most interesting potential storyline for the Brooklyn Nets? You know what I think it is that Kyrie never comes back. They get bounced in the first round. And Steph Curry wins the NBA championship, which humiliates Kevin Durant. I don't think this is Kevin Durant's final spot. I never liked when he left a fundamentally brilliant organization for a flawed one, Golden State to Brooklyn.

I think if Kyrie doesn't come back, he gets bounced early in the playoffs. and his former teammate wins a title, I would actually not be shocked if he didn't reconsider Golden State and absolutely consider leaving Brooklyn. Kyrie's absence is making KD look foolish. You never want to make a superstar look foolish. Dear Colin, what do you make of people mocking Zion

for his noticeable weight gain? Is it getting out of hand? Okay, first of all, I hear the term fat shaming, but 87% of COVID deaths have been about age or obesity. That's data. That's not shaming. If you're a pro athlete, fitness is just the baseline of things I'm asking. It's like being an actor and you can't memorize lines.

If I criticize you for it, is that line shaming or incompetence? I don't ask a lot for my pro athletes. You don't have to be a perfect person. You don't have to be a great leader. You don't have to be a great player. But being in shape is like asking a baker to be able to just mix ingredients. It's not fat shaming. It's holding a professional athlete to a bare minimum standard.

Dear Colin, if you had the power to control who wins the Super Bowl this year, who would you want to see win it all? I like results that are confounding, hard to explain, and interesting. I think if the Dallas Cowboys won with Mike McCarthy as head coach, we wouldn't know what the hell to do with ourselves. It would confuse people. So Mike McCarthy has more Super Bowls than Aaron Rogers. It would be the Rubik's Cube of sports championships. What?

I thought he couldn't. He was the problem in Green Bay. What if Mike McCarthy outduled Bill Belichick, outduled Andy Reid and won the Super Bowl? What? We wouldn't know what to do with ourselves. It would be a fascinating topic that maybe Aaron Rogers and his passive aggressive nature, despite his brilliance, is a little bit more of a roadblock than we think. How about Aaron Rogers out in the first round? Belichick makes another Super Bowl is out dueled by Mike McCarthy.

That's a talk radio host dream. Dear Colin, this may be a little out there, but is there some deep psychological reason? We talk about the NFL more than every other sport. No, I think most people understand it gets big ratings. We like gambling on it. the games are once a week so it has urgency. But I think the greatest strength of the NFL is simply its product.

In the NBA, we really don't watch the games until the conference finals and the finals. I see the ratings. We like the drama and we enjoy the highlights, but we don't really watch the games. Baseball, we don't watch it into the playoffs too. We love its history. We love talking about old baseball players. There's a radio host who's very good. His name is Chris Rousseau.

He loves talking baseball. He talks about it like it's the 70s. And every time he talks baseball, he waxes poetic about the 60s and 70s. Can you imagine a sports talk show host dipping into the Red Grange well to talk current NFL? The key to the NFL is the product is so good. We don't even talk about players who were great like 10 years ago. There's no reason to talk about Brett Farve because Aaron Rogers is so good. There's no reason to talk about

Len Dawson of the Chiefs because Patrick Mahomes is so fascinating. I'll be honest. There's no reason to talk about Brady in New England because the Mac Jones story is so good. The quality of the product is so good in the NFL that I don't need drama and I don't need history.

It's that simple. Players who were great less than a decade ago literally never come up in the discussion, Lidani and Tomlinson, Ray Lewis. Who cares? The current product, the current players are so good. I don't need controversy.

I don't need history. Just give me the games at 1 o'clock every Sunday. All right. I bring in Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I had a steaming hot week. Farrell, very good. First of all, I've hit 11 of 12 college picks on Fandul. I'm on fire.

And I had a very good NFL week. So I want to start with this. because I never in my history like big favorites. And I've taken a big favorite four weeks in a row, and I've hit on three of them. So there is not a big favorite I love this week. I thought the Browns at minus 10 was interesting. 11 and a half, I'd probably stay away.

But the chargers at five and a half, now it's minus six and a half now is interesting to me. So listen, the Steelers simply aren't good enough offensively to go to a clear, mediocre backup. Mason Rudolph's not just a backup. He's not a top 10 backup. And a charger team, now that Kansas City,

a little bit of a reboot, this charger team's got a couple of close losses. Minnesota is better than we think. This is my big favorite of the week. I like the chargers minus five and a half to six and a half, sharper square. It's kind of square. Is it?

Yeah. I'm too hip to be square. Was that a song? You're way too hip to be square. But the wise guys, they like the Steelers in this spot. I think even if Mason Rudolph isn't playing, I mean, if Ben Rothsburger isn't playing, they like the Steelers in this spot.

Mike Tomlin is Ra Ron Mike. This is when he wins. And I'm not just talking about as an underdog. He wins outright in these spots in his career, 25 and 14 outright as an underdog in this spot. This is a really good running team in the Steelers against a terrible running defense. It is a defense. We're still not sure about T.J. Watt, but it's still a really good defense against Justin Herbert, who all the rookie struggles that we thought he would have last.

year. He's starting to have this year. Defenses are adjusting and figuring him out. He's having some accuracy issues. Joey Bosa is going to be out of the game. It's just not a, it's not a great spot for the Chargers, especially with the number climbing. In fact, I've heard from plenty of guys who have said they're betting the Steelers outright on the money line. All right. So now let's go to my dogs, which is mostly who I like this week. I'll start with Washington plus the points three to three and a half at Carolina. All right. Cam Newton is now,

what, got a week of practice. Washington, to me, despite the loss of Chase Young, is still talented in their front seven. I have Ron Rivera, who knows every idiosyncrasy of Cam Newton. I think they have as good a roster or better.

Carolina is not a great home team. Washington gets a field goal or more. This is one of the simple ones. Sharper Square. I like the Washington football team. So look, this is a sharp side for you. I think a lot of people like the Washington football team in this spot. The Panthers defense, by the way, they're probably one of the top five defenses in the league. And over the next few years, they're just going to be dominant.

But I think some of it has to do with Cam Newton. Like, he's just not a good quarterback. And the fact that all of a sudden he's getting the reps or that everyone's excited about the fact he came back. That is not providing you value in the market. And it shouldn't be providing you value in the market. And yet the Panthers opened a three and a half. This game got bet down to three, which tells you that the money is coming in on the Washington football team. And I do think that the Ron Rivera stuff has an impact on that. I think that he has talked about how, of course, he's got thoughts about how to scheme defensively against Cam Newton and has things in his bag of

tricks that he has not shown specifically because he coached him for so long. So you're sharp, buddy, 100% sharp. All right. I like Bears plus six. That's been bet down a little. They're hosting the Ravens. First of all, they're off a buy. That is significant for offensive coaches and young quarterbacks. That's extra practice reps. I think the Bears defense is good. I thought Justin Fields in the last four starts has made significant adjustments and improvements. I think the bear's can win it straight out. I think the Ravens' offense is a tad broken and they're weak on the back end of their defense. Bears plus six is the play, sharper square. There's no, there's no consensus on this game. You like the Bears because people tend to want to bet on large home

underdogs. You like the Ravens because they're the more talented team with the more talented quarterback with a little bit of extra time. It's not like the Bears have had the buy, but the Ravens played 10 days ago on a Thursday, got killed. So now they've got 10 days to stew in this, make adjustments. The big challenge here, honestly, just looking at this purely on the field, is the dolphins blitzed the Ravens consistently. 40% of the snaps, yeah. Right. And that's not a strength of the Ravens, right? And that was partially why the dolphins won. The bears have the lowest blitz rate in the league. And Khalil Mack didn't practice this week on Wednesday. Eddie Jackson did not practice this past Wednesday.

They have both been out with injuries. So the sharp money has definitely come in on the bears. The line has moved in the direction. It's gone down as low as five and a half. I've seen four and a half some places. The bears are definitely the sharp side. It's a pass for me. I'm going to take the Cowboys, my favorite play of the week,

plus the points against the Chiefs. And here's my reasoning. So it's two and a half to three. I would take both. So sometimes in life, we want something to be true. And so when we get a glimpse of what could possibly make it true, we put our arms around it and go, confirmation bias, this is true. We want Kansas City's offense to be back. It's fun, it's flashy.

We know their players. We have them of our fascinating teams. We like Andy Reid. Beating a chaos-laden Raiders team with an interim head coach, the season. the second worst football team in the last 19 years in the league to the Cleveland Browns does not mean they're back. It means the Raiders are, as they've done in recent years, have no depth and are falling apart and have like a backup quarterback and interim coach. You get about three good weeks of him and then he's exposed. People now have film on what the Raiders can't do.

Dallas does many things well. The Chiefs allow a quarterback passer rating of 100, and that is. includes the Jordan love game. I think Dak's going to have his way. They're going to move the ball effectively. The blitzes won't be nearly as effective to a heavy weaponized team. And I think Dallas wins comfortably, sharper square.

Square. This is one of those you can just see it in the numbers. The bets are coming in on the Cowboys. The money is coming in on the Chiefs. It's why the line opened it. two and a half and has been bed up to three. There have been some interesting things happening with the chiefs. Mahomes has said outright, it's not in his nature to do what he's been asked to do the past few weeks. And don't sleep on the chiefs. The past few weeks, they found their way into winning.

And they have found their way into being contention in the AFC West when they were in last place just a few weeks ago. They're taking what the defense is giving them now. They're taking the short passes. They're emphasizing the run. And it's giving them the opportunity to set up the longer plays, which is obviously what Mahomes wants to do. And he wants to score in those bunches. He wants those big chunk plays. This plays into the advantage of a very aggressive defensive secondary, right? Trayvon Diggs, their defensive, their cornerback, who's lighting up the world with all his interceptions also gives up some of the biggest plays in football. And now Dallas is missing its top two pass rushers, including Randy Gregory, who was out, and it's probably been one of the three best

pass rushers in the league this season. Then you've got Orlando Brown, who's finally playing better after being signed from the Ravens to be the new left tackle for the Chiefs. The defense, it's not good, but at least it's not as bad as any defense in history anymore. Now it's just a little bit worse than average. So I feel like if you're getting Mahomes at a field goal or less, that's kind of an advantage, and the wise guys see it that way. NFL season has given us a big week 11 divisional matchup, rivals the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks. Fandle sportsbooks about to make it even bigger.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skisking. hits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

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sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah.

Yeah, yeah. But just so you know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed correct. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Now you're finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. One of the things I love about Fandul is the same game. parlay two bets great odds one game they got prop bets like Kyler murray over on the passing yards or James Connor anytime touchdown Fandoul makes sports betting simple it's safe it's secure it's easy to use the payouts I love betting the NFL on Fandle it's so easy plus you win two

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Drive sales. Manage your day-to-day. Reach customers online. With an ever-growing suite of Channel integrations and apps, including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest, and more. More than a store, Shopify grows with you. Go to Shopify.com slash Colin, all lowercase, Shopify.com slash Colin for a free 14-day trial, full access at Shopify's entire suite of features. Shopify.com slash C-O-L-I-N. There's a recipe for getting your car running just right.

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Inventing Anna, created and produced by Shonda Rhymes, featuring Julia Garner as the Mysterio. as Anna Delvey and Anna Klmsky as Vivian, the reporter tracking down Anna's true identity. Watch Inventing Anna, February 11th only on Netflix. I would take the Seahawks plus points at home against the Cardinals, and here's my reasoning. Arizona has a buy after this week. What's the point of bringing Kyler Murray back? Once the Rams lost, you don't have to worry about the divisional lead.

You rest Kyler Murray for two weeks. Russell Wilson, desperate at home getting points against a backup, I think I take Seattle, sharper square. 100% sharp side. The line has moved in their direction. The money is on their side. The bets are on the cardinal side. Kyler Murray is still not a guarantee to start.

DeAndre Hopkins didn't practice this week. You've got Pete Carroll and Russ coming off of a loss. That plays in their favor. In the last five games, the Seahawks defense, like the Chiefs, it started to improve, right? They're giving up fewer points every week. They're giving up fewer points to offenses that are really good, say, the Rams and the Packers, and they're doing what they're supposed to do against offenses that aren't very good,

say the Saints and the Jags. So those are really good signals for them. And here's an interesting trend. And you take it for what it's worth, but it's a big enough sample size. Since 2003, teams that are shut out against the spread, teams that are shut out, then playing against teams that aren't coming off a buy, 41, 20, and 3. Oh. The nice spot.

I would take the Saints plus one and a half at the Eagles. I think the Saints defense is really, really elite. Jalen Hertz is getting better. I think it's a coaching mismatch. But Jalen Hertz tends to be hot and cold. We don't really know what we get week to week. I think the Saints in a very low scoring game win it outright. It feels very much, let's be honest about the Saints, take away a bad,

roughing the passer penalty against the Titans, and they could have won that game. It's a very good football team. We've seen them beat Tampa. We've seen them beat Green Bay. They should have beaten Tennessee. One of my stronger bets, I like the Saints plus the points. Yeah, that's totally sharp. And the only the guy other than Mike Tomlin, you want to bet as an underdog over the past 20 years,

is Sean Payton. He's just, he's a coaching mismatch against every. anybody. He's a great football coach. And as an underdog in this spot against an Eagles team, that defense is terrible. Jalen Hertz is inconsistent. Their running game is good. Here's the problem. Center the number one rush defense in the NFL. And that is the only thing the Eagles can do really well. Since 2018, the Saints are 11 and 3 outright, meaning winning outright as underdogs. This is a top 10 team in DVOA, which is a fancy way. of measuring your skill and your stats against a strength of schedule metric.

Philly is the middle of the pack. And you mentioned New Orleans. We loved them last week. It's the Titans. They did us a solid by not converting the two-point conversion to end of the other game. So we didn't have to sweat overtime. I think the Saints are an outright win here. I would take the Giants plus 10 and a half at the Buccaneers.

I don't think Tampa's right. Grok's still not back. There's a word now that A, B, fake the vacancy. card he may not play. The Giants are good defensively. Daniel Jones doesn't turn it over, meaning you generally have to march 60, 70 yards to score. I don't think Tampa Bay is right. They are getting healthier.

Ten and a half is too much. I would take the Giants to cover here, sharper square. It's 100% sharp. Here's why I don't like it. It's because of reporting that I heard in that a very, well-respected, betting syndicate came in and bet the Buccaneers in a very big way. I would normally want to be all over the Giants. And this line got up to about 11 and a half and then got that down.

And when it got to 10, it's when the syndicate took the Buccaneers. That sounds very important. What does that betting syndicate mean? That's not Sal in Chicago, right? No, no, no. But what happens is there are, look, there's probably. a hundred people in the country who bet professionally at scale and do it well. And a lot of them work together in groups. And there's nothing nefarious about it. It's not illegal, but they're

known as betting syndicates. And so they move markets. Half the moves that we talk about come from these betting syndicates. And a lot of times what they'll end up doing is they'll make a bet on a game. For example, tonight the Falcons are playing the Patriots, right? This game was at seven. The line got moved up to seven and a half. The word is, the line got moved up to seven and a half by a betting syndicate because they wanted to bet the Falcons at seven and a half. And what happened is the number then moved down to six and a half. So let's say they'll bet $50,000 on one side to get it off the number and then they'll bet $100,000 on the other side for the number that they really want. It's a pretty common practice. They're moving the market. They're manipulating it. In this case, a betting syndicate bet big on the buccaneers at minus 10. You know, I guarantee you where all betting syndicates are in a warehouse in Fort Lauderdale. That's just exactly where they sound like that. I think it's really they're on Industrial Avenue in Vegas. That's really where they are. Okay. I would take Vikings plus the points hosting Green Bay. First of all, Kirk Cousins, seven matchups against Green Bay,

three and one. Mike Zimmer, six, seven, and one. The Vikings have always played Green Bay tough. I also think the Vikings are about four possessions away from being a seven-win team. I took them last week outright. I think they can beat the Packers outright. I'd bet the money line, Vikings plus the point, sharper square. Very sharp. So sharp. In fact, that the number is now closer to pick. And I think at two and a half, it's a great number. I think it won. You should walk away because you're not getting the best of the number. I also think come Sunday, the public is going to come in so heavily on the Packers. You might as well wait until the last possible minute and see which way the number's going

and see if you can get the Vikings, if you can get them close to two, two and a half again. Top 10 team in DVOA. They should be able to run all day against the defense that really can't stop the run. And look, Green Bay's offense is struggling. Aaron Rogers this year has been pretty human against the rush. and that is something that the Vikings defense does really, really well. So it's 100% the right side here. And also one more thing.

We've talked about this a lot. There's regression coming for the Packers. We talked about it with the Cowboys and the Broncos. The Packers are 9 and 1 against the spread. Teams don't finish 15 and 1, 16 and 1 against the spread. A good team normally finishes, you know, 11 and 5 against the spread. So if you think about it like that, The Cubbies are a team you want to fade for the rest of the year.

Again, I'm going to stay away lions and Browns because there's some uncertainty. A favorite that's interesting to me is Miami, whatever the number is minus three at the Jets. Tua is healthy enough to play. The ribs are okay, not great. The Jets are now going to a third quarterback. I think it's one of the worst coach teams in the league. The defense is regressing. I wonder if Robert Sala hasn't lost the locker room.

I think I'd take Miami minus two and a half or three, sharper square. That's sharp. It wouldn't have been sharp if Joe Flacco wasn't playing, but that was an indication to a lot of people that this is just not a team that you can really trust against sort of the precedent, which is what you would imagine when you're taking it, when you're looking at numbers, you normally want to take the team as the home dog. That is over the course of your life, how you are going to find more ROI. The jets are not in that position. this week. The dolphins are the sharp side here. And finally, there's always one game that I haven't brought up that you like. In fact, if I recall last week's game, I used on the Blazing 5 and 1. I forget what the game was, but the game that just jumped out to you that I haven't mentioned. Last week could have been the Niners. I think it was the Niners. We both liked the Niners. We love the Niners. And the Niners were a big win for us. Last week, the Panthers were a big win for us. It was a big, big, the Washington football team against the Bucks.

There's two games. I'll give you two, a two for. Love the Texans plus 10 and a half against the Titans. Look, you just talked about the Vikings being one of those teams that is three plays away from being seven and one. The Titans are three plays away from being five and five. They are power rated as they are power rated as the number one team in the NFL right now. But this is a Titans team A that plays down to the competition. As a favorite, Mike Vrable is 13, 18, and 1. But it is a team that is so overrated in the market because they have wins against the bills, the Colts, the Saints. But let's review for one second.

Against the bills, Josh Allen slipped on a quarterback sneak that would have won in the game. The Colts were killing the Titans. Ryan Tanhill throws an interception. A Colts defensive back picks it off, is running it back for a touchdown. Terrors his ACL fumbles the ball. The Titans recover that they go on to score a touchdown on that play. They win the game in overtime. Against the Saints, Ryan Taniel throws a pick in the end zone.

The Saints get it. Ryan Tanahill is then there is a roughing the passer call that is a phantom call. Tannihil gets a do-over, scores a touchdown. That's the difference in the game. Right. So if we're talking about these small things that add up to something that is the different story than what it should be, that's what we're talking about. So Titans 10 and a half also Colts plus seven against the bills. The total on this game is really low.

The spread is really high. That normally is an indication that the bookmakers are basically saying, we're going to let you take the underdog here because we don't think there's going to be a lot of points, but there's going to be bad weather. The bills have lost two really good defenses this year. that Colts are a really good defense. So I like this game to be a little bit close. Well, Bill's offensive line is not a good pass blocking offensive line. So as you look at your numbers, are the cult to good pass rushing team? If they are, there's your answer.

Well, I think the Colts are overall just a really good defense. And most professional betters have this game rated at about three and a half. Wow. Did the syndicate say that? That's a huge. The syndicate says it. The syndicate said it today on the favorites podcast 100%. Also, by the way, like, there's a couple games this week.

I love the Falcons tonight at plus seven. Well, yeah, plus seven, I like them. Yes. It's six. I stayed away. Seven, you know what? I'll throw my theory at this. This is a Belichick line.

So 11 of the coaches in the NFL are first or second year head. coaches. Belichick's wins this year are over Robert Sala twice, Matt Rule, David Cully. I don't have all the names. Oh, Staley with the Chargers. He's lost to Sean Payton, Bruce Ariens, Mike McCarthy. Belichick is facing kids. So now he gets Arthur Smith in a short week. So New England's going to win the game. But the personnel matchups tell you seven just way too many points to me. It is way too many points. Also, six and a half and six are becoming, there's less and less of a distinction in the difference between six and seven because six is becoming a key number with the way coaches are going for two, with the inaccuracy in the extra

point kicking increasing. So there's like, you want to get the seven. Of course you want to get the seven. But if you love the Falcons in the spot and you get the six, it's not like getting them at five, right? You're still going to get them sort of on what is becoming a key number. And you were looking down at your sheet. What was the other thing you liked? Oh, I was thinking about money lines. You know, I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts won outright.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints won outright. I wouldn't be surprised if the Steelers won outright. So sometimes I like to parlay my money lines and have a little bit of fun and see if I can, you know, score big. All approved by the syndicate. It really, honestly, I am fascinated by like narcos and sopranos. I'm fascinated by the syndicate sounds like a dark subculture. That fascinates me. You know what?

Listen, like we've talked about this before. What I know about betting compared to what other people know about betting is infinitesimal. But what I got into this for 20 years ago when I wrote the odds was the language, the characters, the people that you knew in Vegas that I met in Vegas, right? The sharps, the squares, the wise guys, betting a dime, betting a nickel, the syndicate. Like there's a Damon Runyon component, right? Damon Runyon was this brilliant, colorful writer who wrote columns and he wrote plays like bullets over Broadway and sort of all these big, big plays and musicals.

in the 40s were full of these ratat-tat-tat-tat-tat characters who he romanticized. They were the gangsters that he was romanticizing. That's the language. That's like to me, that's what makes it so much so interesting and so romantic and so fun to cover is I'd like to know what's happening in the syndicate. Now, the truth is a lot of the guys at the syndicate are hanging out at the steakhouse and circus circus hoping they can get comped. So like, it's not as romantic as we really think, but still.

You ever been to that Steakhouse? Pretty good. It is pretty good. It is. Yeah, it's really good. I don't mean to demean the Circus Circus. That's just like, you know, it's an inside joke for Vegas fans. Absolutely.

All right, buddy, good seeing you. As always, my friend. Hey, don't forget, Draymond Green is now part of the volume. Join our YouTube page. Subscribe. Get Draymond Green. He's outstanding, making news. We'll talk soon at the Volume Sports.

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