The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 12 Picks and Betting Breakdown, 'Fake Q's, Real Answers' on Belichick and USC

Episode Date: November 25, 2021

Colin does 'Fake Questions, Real Answers' on how his view of Bill Belichick has changed slightly (3:00), the biggest disappointment of the NFL season so far (5:00), the reason James Franklin and Mel Tucker didn't head to USC (6:00), and the big takeaway from the Houston Rockets' implosion (8:00). Then, The Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 12 bets are “sharp” or “square”. They give their picks for Rams/Packers (11:00), Seahawks/WFT (13:00), Chargers/Broncos (16:00), Buccaneers/Colts (19:00), Panthers/Dolphins (25:00), Titans/Patriots (28:00), Raiders/Cowboys (31:00), and Jets/Texans (32:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. In 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. Are you ready for the big day? Not your big day, her big day, Valentine's Day. Celebrate the one who caught your heart.

Go to FTT.com to save 15% through February 14th with code Crush 15 on Fresh. Florence delivered flowers for your sweetheart. See website for details. FTT give with meaning. Colin Coward podcast presented by Fandul, book. No better place to bet the action than on Fandual Sportsbook during the football season. There's a lot of reasons. It's America's number one sports book. Incredibly easy to use. Super safe,

totally secure, super fast payouts in as quick as two hours. You're not going to get that anywhere. Also, same game parlay bets, live betting. It's the best. Hey, if you're new, just download the Fandul Sportsbook app. I did it in 15 seconds. Get started now. Sign up. Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin. C-O-L-I-N. Fandle Sportsbook app, sign up. Hi, everybody. Welcome to our Thanksgiving podcast, Chad Milman, Sharper Square, from the Action Network in 10 minutes. But first, fake questions, real answers. You know the deal. I want to talk about stuff and don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, has your view of Bill Belichick changed this season based on what he's pulled off. The only thing, and it's just another layer of

his excellence, is that the smartest people I know, none of them are stubborn. I've never met a truly successful person that's stubborn. They know when to change, when to listen, when to talk, and when to consult others. Belichick did two things he'd never done before, spent a fortune in free agency, $300 million, and he also handed over the draft weekend to his scouting department, because after several years of skill player whiffs, he pivoted. And what did it get him? Well, in the first round, Mack Jones, a 71% completion percentage, a 102 passer rating in his last five games.

It got him Ramandre Stevenson, 77 yards rushing per game in his last three games, and it got him defensive tackle Christian Barmore from Alabama, 26 tackles, and becoming a real influencer creating a pass rush on the inside of the D-line. Smart people, truly successful people, are never stubborn. Dear Colin, what's been the biggest disappointment for you in the NFL this year? Well, the one team I completely whiffed on was the Seattle Seahawks. I try never to be a homer, but they'd won 10, 11, and 12 games. I did not see them bottoming out this quickly and Russell Wilson had never been hurt before. But one of the things that concerns me with the New York Jets, Robert Saul is a defensive coach,

and the defense is getting progressively worse. What worries me about the Seahawks is Pete Carroll's a defensive coach, and the defense in the last four years is getting progressively worse. In a division with three offensive coaches, he's out-schemed and outdated. I think if I own the Seahawks, I'd fire Pete Carroll. I'd keep Russell Wilson. I'd move Bobby Wagner. I'd probably move Jamal Adams.

The Seahawks are in a free fall. It's been a house of cards for years. I had no idea it would blow over this quickly. Dear Colin, what do you make of James Franklin signing with Penn State for 10 years and Mel Tucker Starr staying at Michigan State? Well, both were eyed by USC. The downside to Silicon Valley for anybody that lives Denver West is that, that real estate has exploded. Now, in many instances, that's great because if you own a home

and it has skyrocketed, I just had the good fortune of selling a home in Park City, Utah. It went way over asking price. The downside in Los Angeles, though, for USC and UCLA, a head coach is going to make $7 million, right? A Chip Kelly or whoever USC hires. But what do you pay the assistance? Mel Tucker can offer a much, greater quality of life to his assistants and coordinators in East Lansing, similarly James Franklin can in rural Pennsylvania. I think a lot of these coaches look at USC and the Silicon Valley explosion of housing prices in Los Angeles. And I'm not sure UCLA or USC can put together elite staffs. I mean, ask yourself, an offensive coordinator at USC or UCLA. Let's just take the Trojans,

maybe makes a million a year. You know, that qualifies for about a $3.5 million home. That is not a nice home in the kind of neighborhoods a top coordinator wants to live in. I know that sounds ridiculous. That's the reality of Los Angeles. So I think James Franklin, Mel Tucker, Luke Farrell, I think they look at USC and think, we can't put together an elite staff. I don't want my special teams coach living an hour away.

Dear Colin, the Houston Rockets have gone from one of the winningest teams in the NBA to the worst. What lesson is to be learned? I was told this years ago by an NBA executive. It's not about having a superstar. It's about having the right superstar. Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan. They played on both ends. Shaq and Kobe in their prime.

LeBron in his prime. D. Wade in his prime. James Hardin is a lot like Carmelo Anthony, offensively gifted, but mailed it in on the D. defensive side. I think that sends a really bad message to the rest of the locker room. When your greatest superstar, your greatest player, is your best player, or at least your best offensive player and a top two or three defensive player, that is so good for messaging in a locker room when he's putting that kind of effort on the defensive end. Now, everybody knows

as a player gets into his 10th, 12, 15th year, he will no longer be quick enough, nimble enough, twitchy enough to be a great defender. But James Harden to me was never a one. He doesn't have the commitment on the defensive end, and he's a little bit of a flaky personality. The other thing with great all-time players, Bird, Magic, Shaq, Wade, Duncan, they tend to make others better. Hardin was great himself, rarely made others better. So it's not just about having a superstar. Carmelo was a superstar. Westbrook was a superstar.

Hardin is a superstar. Neither committed on the defensive end. It's about having the right. superstar. All right. I bring in my buddy Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer Action Network. I had another winning week. My Blazing Five went three and two, took a lot of dogs. I find myself this week, once again, enticed by dogs. And my theory is it took me about eight, nine weeks to figure this out. But I think the top and the bottom of the league are small. And I think there's about 13 to 15 teams that are all based on who's healthier can beat each other all year.

Packers, Vikings a great example. I think Green Bay is as good as anybody in this league. The Vikings may be the 12th best team, but you're at home. You're healthier, and you can beat them. So let me start with this. One of the games I really like this week, Rams plus one and a half at Green Bay. So first of all, the fact that the Packers were able to beat Arizona missing 11 starters and compete with Minnesota when their tight ends out for the year, Aaron Jones is out,

their number three receiver, their left tackle. They lost their center in the offseason. Their best corner, their best linebacker. And now I get Sean McVeigh, who's never lost leading at half with 10 days, seven days of extra practice with OBJ. I've been told they're going to use a lot of stuff beyond 11 personnel. They're going to catch the Packers a little off guard. Aaron Rogers isn't healthy.

I like the Rams plus one and a half, sharper square. Well, a couple things. first you went three and two I went four and one so I'm trying to figure out which which piece of advice that I give you that you decided you didn't need to take otherwise we could have both been the best betters in America well you talked me out of Dallas Kansas City for Blazing Five so I love Dallas you talked me out of it okay I did a same game parlay for Fandul but I didn't put it in my very prestigious blazing five. You also talked me into Steelers against the Chargers. So I came in with about four picks I liked. I flipped on that one. So you didn't do any

negative. You know, I always bring in eight to nine picks. Yeah. I come in with usually two to three I really like and then I can be talked into other things. So you talked me out of two losses. I just want to be helpful. And that, that Steelers game, you know, the right side is the winning side, as I always like to say, but man, that one was one where you don't know how you got there. You're just happy to cash the check. As for the Rams, the Rams were the sharp side because this line opened at three and it is moved to Rams minus one, which tells you everything you didn't know about how this game started. The one thing I am thinking about, and we've talked about this last week, Remember, we talked about the syndicate last week.

I am wary that there is a syndicate out there that is betting down the Rams because they do believe that that is where the public is ultimately going to want to bet. And they're going to want to get a better number on the Packers. So I'm a little bit skeptical that the sharp move is really a sharp move in favor of the Rams versus just wanting to get the Packers at home closer to pick. Who do you like? If it's a closer to pick, if it's Packers minus one, then I like the Packers. All right. Fair enough. I like Washington plus two at home against Seattle.

Sometimes people don't want to admit things, but they're just true. And Seattle needs to be in a rebuild. It's a bad secondary. It's a battle line. It's a marginal running back crew. They're not dynamic at tight end. Seattle's not good. And they're the fourth place team in their division for a reason.

They have an outdated head coach. They've whiffed on several draft picks. They can't get a first round draft pick, right? And they gave up too much for Jamal Adams. We are viewing Seattle off 10, 11, 12 win seasons as an elite team. They have to blow this up. They should trade Bobby Wagner, maybe move Dwayne Brown. Washington at home getting points to me,

is the sharp side, sharper square. Sharp side, 100%. The wise guys are absolutely with you. This has been actually a pretty aggressive move from the professionals in the first 48 hours since the line was posted. Started at Seattle

minus two and a half. Now you actually, there are some places where you can get Seattle plus one. All the money has been coming in on the Washington football team. And a lot of times you will not see this kind of move. You won't see this kind of reaction from professional

betters in which they are betting a team like the Washington football team that had a win as an underdog against a team that had just lost in Seattle. It's a natural spot to fade the Washington football team. Fade what you think is going to be the overreaction. But the truth is, is everything you just said. You're seeing a team in Washington that is starting to play better. You know, Taylor Heineke, there was a story about a month ago where the, Washington football team was looking like they were struggling. And the coaches and Taylor Heineke sat down and they basically said, you're not playing like you. You're playing too conservative. You're playing like you're trying to control a game. You're playing like you're

afraid to lose a game instead of winning the game. And since then, he's been much more aggressive. He's been playing more like a backyard type of ball player that he is. The team has overall been playing better. The defense, the front line, even the front four, even without Chase Young, has been playing better. But really, this is about Seattle. Rust, he just doesn't look right. The ball is in a sharp. The passes are falling in the receiver's feet. This is as much about what's happening on the field than it is about sort of the numbers the bookmakers are posting. The other game I like is Broncos plus one and a half at home against the Chargers. So what we're seeing with the Chargers over the last two years is a quarterback that's Andrew Luck, but not as reckless,

who was overcoming last year a really bad O-line. And this year, regrettable special teams and a soft rushing defense, is that we have to be honest about what the Chargers are. They're a pretty average team with a rookie coach with a stupendous left tackle and quarterback and some nice weapons. But I think Denver's got a better overall roster, altitude, at home, getting points. This is the play for me.

One of my favorite of the week, sharper square, I like the Broncos. This is how sharp you're getting. This is the wise guys favorite play of the week. To the point where Simon Hunter, who's the professional better, I co-host the favorites with, he told me in the podcast we recorded today, his phone was blowing up at 2 o'clock in the morning when lines were first starting to come out. East Coast time. Are you betting the Broncos plus two and a half?

Are you betting the Broncos plus two and a half? Like he was worried that he wasn't going to get there in time. And it's not just because, you know, the wise guys tend to like short home dogs in these divisional matchups. It's really because they've been doing what you just described as fading the Chargers for the past couple of weeks. They realized, and we've talked about this, that Ravens game that the Chargers had, that was a telltale sign. And that was a game in which the wise guys came in hard on the Ravens. And the reason why I go back a few weeks for a lot of these games, whenever we talk about these games, is because there are pivot points in a season where wise guys tend to understand,

okay, this is the line of demarcation. This is when we truly understand what is true about this team and what has been sort of the fad that they've been riding and there's going to be the regression. Going into that game, the chargers were nearly perfect in third and fourth down conversions. And that's how they were winning those games. That's what made Justin Herbert look like a world beater. That's what made Brandon Staley look so smart. In that game, they crashed back down to Earth in the third and fourth Dow conversions.

And then nothing has changed since then. They're the same team that is struggling in those scenarios. And the mediocrity of the roster is catching up to them. We saw all that happen in their late game collapse in that game with the Steelers, which we both had the Steelers plus six. But also their weakness plays to the strength of the Broncos. You mentioned their roster. their running game, two-headed monster in the running game.

It's really good. The past three weeks has averaged 120 rushing yards per game. They call a lot of play action. That plays well against the Chargers secondary. And mostly like Teddy Bridgewater gets the ball out fast, gets it out accurate. The one thing the Chargers have a strength is Joey Bosa. That's mitigated if you've got Teddy Bridgewater who can get rid of the ball so quickly. also like the Colts plus three now two and a half on Fandu against the Buccaneers at home.

So here's what's interesting about Tampa. They're really the same team as last year. So last year at this time, they were 7 and 3 averaging 29.6 points a game and giving up 22. This year, they're 7 and 3 averaging 30 a game and giving up 22. Their running backs last year were 31st and attempts. Now they're 29th. Last year, their issue was they have a 43-year-old quarterback that's immobile. and a shaky secondary, still the issue.

You don't trust their special teams. We think, unlike Kansas City or Arizona or Green Bay, where there is a next level for their offense to go if it's healthy, this is what their offense is with a 44-year-old quarterback, pure pocket quarterback, with a shaky secondary in a passing league that doesn't run the ball. This is what they are. Good at home when Tom's comfortable, average on the road.

The Colts, this is the season. They're at home getting points. And I'll say this about Carson Wentz. Go to his last eight games. A lot of multiple touchdown, no turnover games. I like the Colts here, Sharper Square. 100% sharp. This is absolutely the sharp side.

The Colts were the public dogs against the bills. And then they showed out. It was exactly what everyone thought. A lot of people thought it would be why everyone thought that line with the bills was so off at plus seven, plus seven. and a half. But this line right now is as high it is with the opening in three and now it's down to two and a half,

which also tells you the money is coming in on the Colts. It's because Tom Brady and the Bucks won on Monday Night Football. And they made the Giants look more inept than usual. But as you pointed out, the Bucks' office was not, the Buc's offense was not that great. It's just the Giants were so bad.

They fired their offensive coordinator less than 24 hours after the game. That is a telltile sign. that whatever the bucks were doing was not nearly as good as the Giants were just playing bad. Now, the Colts, they have one of the best offensive lines in football. They're playing healthy. Healthy.

And that has been the problem with the Colts in the first five or six weeks of the year. They had this dominant line of scrimmage strategy, not unlike the Patriots, but they didn't have all their weapons. So now they are healthy. That's why you're seeing Jonathan Taylor become the dominant player that he is. And they're playing against at home, like you said, against the, team that has really struggled on the road. So yeah, if I can get a short home dog in this spot with a good team and I'm not as sold on Carson Wentz, I still think he's prone to the boneheaded

mistake. It just hasn't hurt him the past few weeks. But I do like everything else about this cult team and this number. This Thanksgiving, Fandual Sportsbook is thankful for you. That's why they're giving all customers up to a hundred dollar bonus on same game parley. That's cool. Feast on the NFL all weekend long. Turn little bets into big paydays with same game parles. Listen, I like the Cowboys. I think they beat and cover the spread against the Raiders. Amari Cooper has a touchdown. And I think DAC throws for over 250 yards. You get paid in as little as two hours. Unlock your same game parlay bonus today. Log on to Fandul's app. If you're first time doing it, if it's your first time betting with Fandul, you can do

the risk-free bet up to $1,000 when you sign up with the promo code. Colin exclusively on the Fan Dual Sportsbook app. Always use the promo code Colin C-O-L-I-N. 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia, or West Virginia. Refund issued as non-witruable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $10 bucks. Restrictions apply. See terms at Sportsbook, fandul.com. Same game, parley available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler. Visit fandul.com slash RG.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross

double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picket here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day But just so y'all know I mean at this point Mark this is the second episode

where we've discussed crack So I'm starting to see that there's a through line We also have AIDS on the table right now So Thank you finishing that sentence And yes I don't think there's a more important year For black people

Really? Yeah For me it's one of the most important years For black people in American history Listen to look back at it On the IHeart Radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcast

Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fantine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

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In Colorado, Jersey, and Virginia, or call 1-8009 with it at Indiana. 1-800-7-1-17 for confidential help in Michigan. Tennessee Red Line is 1-8009-9-9-7-889. Or go to 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Or call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona. It's the sound of another sale on Shopify, the all-in-one commerce platform I love to start run and grow your business. Shopify gives entrepreneurs the resources once,

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full access at Shopify's entire suite of features. Shopify.com slash C-O-L-I-N. What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination. Our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because when we disconnect from this and connect with this,

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but the dolphins in division has a pretty solvable offense, right? If you see them twice a year, you're New England, you're the Jets, you're Buffalo. But Tua can be more effective the numbers show if you don't see that regularly. They're at home getting points against Carolina. Cam still learning the offense. Now Miami is getting healthier on the perimeter. Now Tua no longer has anything hovering over it. It's his team.

Win or lose, it's his team. team. And unlike Daniel Jones, he's an accurate deliverer distributor of the football. I think the dolphins feel like they're as good as they're going to be, but it's good enough to be a home team getting points against a Carolina team that let's be completely honest about this. Really good front seven defensively. Not necessarily special anywhere else outside of one player, Christian McCaffrey. I like Miami and the point, Sharper Square. What happened to? I want to enjoy my football.

I don't want to bet bad games. I don't want to bet bad teams. I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets. I just like the side. It's like this is not dissimilar from, and I'm going to talk out of both sides of my mouth here, because the initial sharp side was Carolina. The number dropped.

The Panthers opened as four and a half point underdogs. It is now dropped to one and a half. It told you that all the money is coming in on the Panthers. And it's because their defense, you talk about sort of the dolphins being solvable in division, a little more challenging outside the division. The Panthers defense, even after losing the Washington football team,

that was really a loss on Cam and his inability to move the ball. this is about A, the number at four and a half. And it's also one of those overreaction lines that got a little too inflated on the side of the dolphins because of what you're saying. The dolphins the last couple weeks, they've been showing out, right? They've been a little bit better to when you look at his numbers. They're not dinking duck numbers. He's a little more accurate. He's throwing the ball down field.

The problem is they have zero physical presence when it comes to the running game. and the Panthers will be able to turn them into a one-dimensional team. I do think, again, I said I'm talking out at both sides of my mouth because this is just not a game that I want to invest in. Now that it's closer to one, similar to what I said about the Packers, I think you probably take the Dolphins. I think the value in the Panthers is out. All right.

I know I'm going all dogs. I have one more dog. I want to talk about. I'm not sold on it yet. By the way, that's what professionals do. I get grief all the time. All you do is pick dogs. Blah, blah, blah, blah. But dogs are the way to go normally because when the public comes in, bookmakers

overinflate the games, the side of the games where they think the public is going to bet. And so that's why you always find value on the underdogs because the bookmakers know the public is going to come in on the more popular teams. So go with the dogs. Do you, man, don't feel like you have to bet favorites just to even it out. All right. I would take. The Titans plus now six on Fandul. It's the best pass rush Mack Jones will face in a month. And they don't have to blitz

to create the pass rush. Tanna Hill without Derek Henry is more prone to mistakes. But as I've often said, well-coached talented teams off embarrassing losses, virtually bounce back 90% of the time.

I think New England's overinflated. I think this is an important game for Tennessee with the Colts now coming back, I like the Titans and the Point, Sharp or Square. It's sharp. And I'm sick. I'm sick about it saying it. But sometimes betting means doing bad things. It doesn't mean doing the popular thing. It means doing the right thing. And for the past two weeks, you and I on this show, we faded the Titans. We have said they're overrated. Last week on the show, we said, bet the Texans outright. Bet them on the money line. I hope you did.

I did. It's really the overinflation of the Titans. that we were fading, now is the overinflation of the Patriots that were fading. And it feels really bad to bet a Titans team that is coming off an outright loss at home to a really bad team in the Texans, especially against Bill Belichick, no matter the situation, because when it was Belichick and Brady, those two were defying the odds in situational play every single week, right? Anytime they are a double-digit favorite on the road, it doesn't matter, bet the Patriots. But we now have to consider that with all the bets coming in on New England, we have to think about the Titans, as you said, they historically play up to or down to their

competition. They lost to the Jets and the Texans this year. They have wins against the Rams, against Kansas City, against the Colts. I mean, it's disgusting, but the Titans are the Sharp Side. I've been taking one big favorite every week. The one that attracts me is the Dallas Cowboys minus 7 to 7.5. So when you're not right, you have to plan a short week on the road. It's not a place to get right. Henry Rugg's loss is now a team that can't push the ball vertically.

Last three games, Derek Carr, four touchdowns, four picks. He's not right. They were an inconsistent running team to begin with. When the interim coach. Now they lose half a day of prep going on the road. They've scored 15 points on average the last three games. Dallas will be a little healthier. I would take Dallas and swallow the points sharper square. Yeah, it's hard to say that taking seven points or laying seven points is the sharp side. And I can tell you, There are professionals who will swallow the seven and just they will take the Raiders. The Cowboys are the sharp side here. A lot of it is what you said about the Raiders and Derrick Carr has not looked right. He was a different quarterback when he had Henry Ruggs. And so this team really has come back down to Earth. Now the Cowboys are home. They're on Thanksgiving.

We never like to play decent sized favorites that the public loves is the axiom that we live buy. But here is a stat. Since 2005, on Thanksgiving, public favorites, public favorites, getting more than 57% of the bets are 24 and 7. So if you're going to play a favorite that is adored by the public, this is the day to do it. And you give thanks that you finally get to bet a favorite without any guilt. And finally, the game I haven't mentioned that you like and why? Well, there's a couple. I still love the Texans.

I'm going to ride that train. I've loved him ever since Tyrod Taylor came back. We didn't win against the dolphins. He was a little bit rusty, spot on against the Titans. And look, they're hosting the Jets. This game was at two and a half. He's just a quarterback who consistently wins, and he puts his team in a position to win.

We saw it in the first game of the year. We saw it when he came back against the Titans. The Jets do not have that. that in any way, shape, or form. Most professionals are making the Texans about four point favorites. I'm getting them at two and a half, so I like them here. I also, with the news that T.J. Watt is likely to play. Mike Tomlin's saying he expects him to play on Sunday.

I like the Steelers at plus four and a half. This defense with him back against a really terrible offensive line, putting Joe Burrell in bad spots. That line feels a little bit too high for intra-division game that should be about rate. Chad Millman, have a happy Thanksgiving to you and the fam. You too, my friend. I hope you enjoy. At the Volume Sports, YouTube channel, Twitter, Instagram,

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