The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 14 'Sharp or Square' with Colin's PICK OF THE YEAR, and 'Fake Q's, Real Answers' on Mahomes and Zion

Episode Date: December 10, 2021

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" on why it would be a mistake for Chip Kelly to go back to Oregon (3:00), why he's honored by the blowback he's getting for flip-flopping on Mac Jones (5:00), what Tua has in common with Mac, Teddy and the cardboard box industry (6:00), the lesson to be learned from Patrick Mahomes' struggles (7:00), why Zion was not overhyped (9:00), and what he thinks of the Oklahoma senator who wants to rename a stretch of desolate highway after Lincoln Riley. Then, The Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL picks are "sharp" or "square". They give their picks for Bills/Buccaneers (Colin's "Bet of the Year") (17:00), Ravens/Browns (20:00), Rams/Cardinals (22:00), Cowboys/Washington (25:00), Giants/Chargers (28:00), 49ers/Bengals (30:00), Raiders/Chiefs (33:00). and they discuss why they don't regret betting on the Broncos last week against the Chiefs (35:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this valentines with 1800flowers.com.

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Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-N. Fandul-Sports book app, sign up. Hi, everybody, and welcome in. I have my favorite NFL bet of the year. with Chad Millman in 10 minutes. I'm not joking. I may put a lean on my house,

favorite NFL bet of the year in 10 minutes with Chad Milman. First, though, fake questions, real answers. There are stuff I want to talk about and don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, what do you make about the strong Chip Kelly to Oregon rumors? Listen, there's an old saying

you can never go home again. Chip Kelly is an outlier. He's not a good recruiter and doesn't like it, but yet won 92% of his conference games at Oregon and 87% of his games overall. He's the only exception I can think of in college football in the last 20, 30 years, who was a dominating coach and didn't like recruiting.

How'd it work? Because he caught the sport flat-footed. You remember the pace of play? Nick Sabin said it's bad for the sport. sport officials couldn't keep up. Well, the sport now has caught up, and what Chip is, is a smarter than average coach who has a disdain for recruiting. I follow it closely.

UCLA somewhere between fourth, fifth, or sixth best recruiting class in the PAC 12 annually, and that's an L.A. base school. I like Chip. I think he's smarter than average, but you can't go home again. That was lightning in a bottle. If I was Oregon, I would hire California head coach Justin Wilcox. Wilcox family has great history in the state of Oregon. Dear Colin, what do you say to those people mocking you for flip-flopping on Mac Jones?

Well, what I say is it is an absolute privilege as a broadcaster to be recognized, imitated, and occasionally jabbed in the ribs. It means in a fragmented market, you're being consumed. Nobody's talking about the weekend hosts on networks or the overnight hosts. I heard Russell Wilson say this once. Pressure is a privilege. It means you're playing in big games that matter. I think being criticized as a broadcaster is a privilege.

It means you're consuming my work. Listen, I talk three hours a day. Shocker, I whiff a lot. I have strong opinion. Sometimes I'm wrong. I never take it personally. Most of the people, in fact, probably not. nine out of ten that criticized me, also follow me on social media.

Dear Colin, you've been very critical of Tua. What do you have to say now? Well, what I have to say is there are three quarterbacks in this league right now, and they all have something in common. Mac Jones, Tua, and Teddy Bridgewater. Now, in all three cases, we realize their ceiling is lower. But yet Mac Jones last five games, 116 quarterback rating, 5-0. Tua last five games, 97 passer rating, four games over 100, he's won 405.

And Teddy Bridgewater, 63% completion percentage, three games above 100 passer rating. So what do these three have in common besides a low ceiling? besides the fact that none of the three are hyper-athletic. They also have this in common. They have great defensive coaches. Vic Fangio, Brian Flores, and Bill Belichick. You're not going to win Super Bowls this way. You can, though, win a lot of games as an accurate quarterback

that makes few mistakes with a great defensive head coach. Tua is a left-handed Mac. Bridgewater's an older Mac Jones. I know it's boring. I know it's not fascinating. It's like the cardboard box industry which is on fire, because now everything's delivered through Amazon. It's like the hottest industry in America.

And it's boring. It's the cardboard box. But in this league, lower ceiling quarterbacks who don't turn it over win regularly. Three examples this year when they have a great defensive head coach. Dear Colin, is there a very defensive head coach? a lesson to be gleaned? Oh, I love that word. Thanks for asking. Is there a lesson to be gleaned from Patrick Mahomes struggles this year? Yes, we should listen to scouts. I remember when Cam Newton

came out, and there was a man named Nolan Noraki. He had a scouting report of Cam. And I'm going to read you a couple of the things it said. Has an enormous ego with a sense of entitlement. Will at times struggle to win a locker room? Lacks accountability. Focus. Isn't punctual. has issues with authority, not always dependable. Looking back on that, fairly accurate. The scouts know what they're doing, and what they said about Patrick Mahomes was, remarkably high ceiling,

but harder to coach, tends to be an ad liver, doesn't really have a repeatable passing motion. It changes constantly. And so what you're seeing with Patrick Mahomes is what the scout said. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but is not always consistent. Here's something to remember.

The MVP year, he had 50 touchdowns. You may have forgotten this. The following year in which he won the Super Bowl, he had only 26. And in fact, the last six regular season games of that season, he had eight touchdowns and four picks. He's always been inconsistent, college to the pros. He's always been streaky and hot and cold. It's just that a ceiling is remarkably high.

Listen to the scouts. They know what they're doing with Cam, with Mahomes, even with Mack Jones. They're overwhelmingly right. I remember Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated said, quote, Mahomes mechanics can be scattershot, which is why he'll thread a needle on one play and then fire an easy pass into the third row the next. Mel Kuiper, quote, Mahomes has a high ceiling, but he's going to have to learn how NFL offenses are run,

and the chiefs are going to have to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up. Folks, Scouts know what they're doing. Trust them. Dear Colin, Zion Williamson has now missed more games than he's played, 86 to 85. Do you think he was overhyped? No, I actually don't.

I think all of us, all of you, got it right. I said before he got drafted, I thought he was a marketing machine. He had an incredibly unique game, and as Biggs have become increasingly European, he's a physical force that will dominate quickly. That is exactly what happened. He literally broke Wilts Chamberlain's records.

But you also knew, and I also said, I worry about his torque, gaining weight. Remember the criticism was he doesn't shoot jumpers? It never bothered me. I said, most college kids are not great shooters. They're going to class. limitations on practice time and gym time. Zion is exactly what everybody thought,

which is, when healthy, he's a game wrecker, but he'll struggle with weight and health. I would say the scouting report was unstoppable, yet potentially unstable. I think all of us, you, me, scouts, executives, analysts were completely accurate with Zion Williamson. He's gone from wilt to wilt to walt. wilting. But we all saw it coming.

Dear Colin, did you hear about that Oklahoma senator who wants to rename a three-inch stretch of Desolate Highway to Lincoln Riley Highway to get back at him for ditching Oklahoma? Yes, I heard, and it's embarrassing. Let's stay out of the politics for a second and ask yourself this. The day before Lincoln Riley left, if you're a sooner fan, had I said to you, Brett Venables. Brent Venables is a better coach than Lincoln Riley. What would you have said to that?

Lincoln Riley had won national coach of the year, had been up for the Cowboys job, was a multiple winner of Big 12 coach of the year. If I would have said the day before Lincoln Riley left, yeah, the defensive coordinator in an increasingly offensive game is a better coach than Lincoln Riley, you would have rolled your eyes. It would have been a hot take and a ridiculous opinion.

Lincoln Riley is a better coach than Brent Venables. If Brent Venables struggles, and the SEC, let's face it, Oklahoma in two years, is going to be battling for third because Bama and Georgia are ruling the conference. And it's only getting better. Arkansas is better. Texas A&M's a machine now in recruiting. Kentucky, a basketball school, is better.

And Brian Kelly, better than Ed Orgeron's now at LSU. So if Venables doesn't work in four years, because Oklahoma is not going to be terribly patient. This is a top five, six program in America. And Lincoln Riley does really well at USC, but misses Oklahoma and Texas. And they offer him the job in Oklahoma. Are you not going to put your arms around him? I understand fans being juvenile and emotional.

But senators, this is why people have lost respect, admiration, and trust in politicians. This is something Johnny from Enid, Oklahoma, talks about at a saloon. Not something an Oklahoma senator enacts. Embarrassing. NFL playoffs are almost here. We want to help you stay on top of the action. Fan dual sports books giving you a $10 bonus if you place $20 in a same game parlay bet. Easy money, right?

I'm going to take Buffalo to bury the bucks and the over. How about that? I love that. Easy payouts, fast payouts, easy to use, get paid in as little as two days, America's number one sports book, same game parlay bonus live during weeks 13, 14, and 15. So lock in some winners today. Enjoy a $10 bonus on Fandul. And if you're new to Fandul, sign up, promo code Colin, get 30 to one odds on either team to win in the Browns and Ravens rematch. By the way, love Cleveland in that spot. You can win 150,000. 50 bucks and a $5

bet. That's promo code Colin exclusively in the Fandol Sportsbook app. 21 plus and present. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only

legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered.

conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontans and wampas on the ice planet hot. or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so...

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. In Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia, or West Virginia refund issued as non-witruable site credit that expires in seven days.

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is alike, can sell everywhere, synchronize online, and in-person sales, and effortlessly stay informed. I love Shopify. Have for years the tools and resources that make it easy for any business to succeed from down the street to around the globe. Shopify is more than a store. Connect with your customers. Drive sales, manage your day-to-day, reach customers online with an ever-growing suite of channel integrations and apps, including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest. Tristan Moore. More than a store, Shopify grows with you. Go to Shopify.com slash Colin, all lowercase. Shopify.com slash Colin for a free 14-day trial, full access at Shopify's entire suite of features. Shopify.com slash COLIN. Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic

not enough people know about and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinnwity host of the new podcast Navigating Adoption presented by Adopt U.S. kids. episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories told by the families that live them with commentary from experts. Visit adoptuskids.org slash podcast or subscribe to navigating adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination. Our sense of wonder. And our family bonds grow too. Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this.

We reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. All right. We bring in Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network. I believe these are the best lines since about week four. I sharp square, I don't know, I'll decipher that.

But let me just start with my game of the year. Now, the number was great at three and a half. I still like it at three. Buffalo, and here's why. This is a proud team. They're in a little bit of trouble here. Outside of the Jags in Houston, everybody is still vying for the playoffs in the AFC.

It doesn't matter that they don't run the ball, particularly well because they couldn't run it against Tampa anyway. They are a humiliated team, an embarrassed team, a mocked team, and a desperate space. I love them to not only beat Tampa, but we know how Buffalo wins. To beat them up a little bit, I love the bills plus the point sharper square. Totally sharp. 100% sharp. And not only that, for everything you just said, from the psychological components to the on the field components to how it plays into what they're really good versus what the buck what they're really good at versus what the bucks aren't as good at. You're right. The line opened to three and a half got that down to three. Here's what's

interesting. So much public money is coming in on the bucks. I know. This is overreaction to what team, what fans see in prime time that the line bounced back up to three and a half it's entirely possible you can get this at four. Like come Sunday as the late money comes in, that's when the public really bets in that 12 to one Eastern window. Who knows? Like, if you can get the three and a half,

take the three and a half because the hook, I think, will be very important in this game. But I also would not, I would not think that this game doesn't get to four either. And so if you miss the three and a half, you might get a four. It might bounce around for a couple of days because the hook is really important.

Wise guys are taking the hook. They still like the bills of plus three. But I would keep an eye out for getting the three and a half or four. I'm thinking about putting a couple liens on my house. It's my bet of the year. Wow. I don't say that much. Better the year.

Better the year. Of the year. And I'm talking. I love when you're that confident. I love when anyone is that confident. I love Buffalo. I love volumes. Okay.

I think the lines are incredible this week. love Cleveland off a buy minus two and a half against Baltimore. Again, the more desperate team at home, Baltimore is falling apart physically. Cleveland's actually getting healthy. And again, if I think the coach is good, I think the by week matters more. I like Stefansky, offensive coach. I think right now Baltimore is broken and some of it's just physical. I'm going to take Cleveland minus two and a half.

It's my second favorite, bed of the week, sharper square. Totally sharp. You are rolling. Boom. Boom. It's like you're a professional. You are 100% nail a yet. Well, I'm a broadcasting professional, so I'm kind of a professional.

Listen, these days, anyone in broadcasting is a betting professional. It's like, it goes hand in hand. By the way, I got three more games that I love. I have five love plays. You want me to tell you, listen. Sure, sure. Nobody likes to know why they're right more than you. I'm trying to tell you why you're right.

Yeah. That's why I tell my wife all the time. Tell me more. Why am I right? You're right. Here's why you're right. Number one, I love John Harbaugh. And his honesty at that end of that Ravens game against the Steelers about why they went for the two. Forget about the analytics. It's like a 1% better play to go for the two than to go for the tie in that spot. He was just about, I don't have any players left. That's right. Marlon Humphrey is down. He didn't have defensive backs to go into overtime with. The Ravens lead the league in players on IR. They're down three of their four starting defensive back.

The Browns are coming off a buy. They got healthier. I've heard of reports in camps. The Baker Mayfield has looked really good in practice. But they also played the Ravens before the buy. So they've essentially been prepping for this team for almost a month. Meanwhile, the Ravens are coming off like just such a physical game where they are hurt even more. you've got Hunt back, you've got Chub back, the defense is as healthy as it's been all year.

Divisional game. We talked about this last week with the Steelers and the Ravens. You get a divisional game, especially in the AFC North, where a home team is favored by more than three. You're taking the underdog. You get the home team favored by less than three. You're taking the favor. All right. Another game I love, Arizona minus two and a half hosting the Rams.

Listen, Van Jefferson is now there are Robert Woods. He's not the blocker. They're not going to run the football as well without Robert Woods, unless they do, as Greg Coe said this week, add another offensive lineman, which Sean McVeigh is not prone to do, but he was able to do it against Jacksonville. We have to come to terms with what Arizona is,

arguably the best team in the league. They don't have a lot of bad Sundays. This is not an inconsistent team. This is not Buffalo. It's not even Tampa. This is the best team. in the league, nine out of ten Sundays. The Rams, as much as I like them, they don't have the gas and the firepower.

They lost in the offseason their best tied end. They lost Robert Woods. They lost Cam Acres. This offense, it's a little smoke and mirrors. Matt Stafford's an upgrade. But this is easy for me. I also think Zona is battling for the number one seed. Love Zona minus two and a half.

So what did I just say? I said divisional opponents, home team, favored by less than a field goal, you want to take the home team. Here is something interesting. And this, to me, is not as black and white as the Brown's Ravens game. The Cardinals, while they may be the number one team in the NFL right now, they're not a convincing number one team. Every single week, it feels like they are just benefiting so much from. opponent turnovers and from recovering their own turnovers. We saw it again this past week against the Bears.

Practically every drive they started was inside the Bears 30-yard line. And even when they were driving, Kyla Murray fumbled the ball and recovered it himself. It's another example of something that's been happening all year. So there is that sort of stigma that they're not a dominant number one team. The challenge here is that this line opened at three and a half. The wise guys love the Rams at three and a half. They love the Rams at three. Now it's a two and a half.

Actually, now it's a two. So it's getting to a point where you're going to have to bet on the Cardinals at some point because the number is moving so aggressively in their direction. I don't love the Cardinals here. I miss the number on the Rams. I would have bet the Rams at three and a half. I don't love the Cardinals the way you do. Here's another game I like.

And this is a weird mathy thing. So just hear me out. So we all know the hooks, seven and a half, three and a half. We all know the hooks in this stuff. Four is always an interesting number. Four is telling you Dallas is better than Washington. And remember now, if you look at Dax numbers, he is not the same quarterback without Amari Cooper. He's not.

He's kind of a 500 quarterback without Amari. So Amari comes off COVID and doesn't look particularly strong. Well, what do we have now? Extra rest for Zeke. Extra rest for Amari. I like Washington, one of my few favorites to cover this week. I like them a lot. I think they're finally on the offensive side healthy.

And congratulations on Taylor Heineke. They've gone to zone coverage in the last four weeks. Washington has benefited from that. But this is still a very, very limited offense against the very potent offense that is now healthy and whenever I see a four, I tend to like the favorites. The betting line is telling you this is a better football team. I think Dallas gets healthy. I think they win it. And I think they win it by a touchdown or more, sharp or square. Well, that's square. The Washington football team, you mentioned math. So let's use another math term, regression, right? Regression.

The Washington football team has won several weeks in a row. Taylor Heineke has been playing better and better every week. This defense has been playing better statistically since Chase Young went out. And yet what you're seeing is that bookmakers are not showing that improvement in the point spread because they know with the cowboys they can still post a line that is significant. higher. They can shade it in the Cowboys direction because that's where the public is going to come. So wise guys are taking the Washington football team. They love the Washington football team here. They're hoping that more money keeps coming in on the Cowboys. They're hoping this line actually

creeps up a little bit higher and they can get better than four. They can potentially get that hook. This game has a lot of similarities to when the Bucks came into D.C. a few weeks ago and lost outright to the Washington football team. It's that same kind of feeling that a lot of the wise guys have in terms of the analytics, in terms of how this game is power rated. They really think it should be a field goal game. So they're already getting a point of value. They think they can get more. Okay. This team, the Chargers, I think I'm six and oh in the Charger games. I bet against them mostly. That was one of my bets of the week last week was taking the Chargers over Cincinnati. So I love the New York Giants plus 10 and a half. What the Chargers did last week is one,

A lot of jump balls got a bunch of quirky breaks. That's not the Chargers. Not saying the Chargers weren't better than Cincinnati. But there were a couple of bad reads by Herbert, a couple of bad throws, a couple of underthrown jump balls, and the Chargers won all of them. They got every tip and every break. The Giants, Joe Judge is fighting for his job. Daniel Jones is fighting for his career.

This team has talent. I think it's close. I've always had a good beat on the Chargers. I love the Giants plus 10 and a half, sharper square. Totally sharp. And what's interesting about this game, agree with you on the Chargers. That was, if you are a better and you weren't betting on the Chargers last week, then you haven't really been paying attention.

That was the exact spot to bet on them. And they still tried to give it away, by the way. What's interesting about this game, we don't know that Daniel Jones is playing because he's still suffering from the injured neck. Mike Glennon is in the COVID protocol. So it's very possible that the quarterback for this game is Jake Fromm. And it gives you an indication of how little Daniel Jones matters, how little Mike Glennon matters, how little any quarterback on the Giants matters, because the line is barely

moved and the wise guys are still coming in and betting on the Giants. It's also worth noting, Keenan Allen started the week on the COVID list. He's been cleared. Mike Williams is now on it. So we don't actually know what's going on in that wide receiver room. There could be a lot of changes as we get to the game on Sunday. But fading the Chargers as a really big favorite against the Giants team that actually has a pretty good defensive line is not a bad move. Okay, I always give you a couple of games that jump out to you.

My favorite play of the week is the Bill's second favorite Browns. I do like the Cowboys. I love the Giants. I love Arizona. Give me one or two that I have overlooked. I did think San Francisco plus one and a half at Cincinnati was really interesting to me because I think if you look at Cincinnati, they're more of a rebuilding team than we think. What they are is good about every other Sunday. That's what Cincinnati is.

And that's what a rebuilding team with talent at quarterback is. They're good about every other Sunday. So I should probably go back and pursue the Bengals. But I think San Francisco is more desperate. and I think San Francisco is a better team. And by the way, say what you want about Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy Garapolo, if the Niners said we're going to move him in the offseason, there's nine teams, and I'm not counting Atlanta that need a quarterback.

It would get a late first or a second round pick. I'm sorry, he throws a good ball. I would take the Niners plus the points. Is that one of the two I overlooked? I was going to mention it. That line has actually moved. this is probably the most bet professional game of the week. You know, I mention this every week when we do the podcast.

I'll do my podcast, the favorites on the volume network with professional bet or Simon Hunter. We'll do it on Tuesday. We'll do it on Thursday. Between Tuesday and Thursday, Simon will get dozens of calls from his colleagues in the professional betting space to criticize or support the decisions that we were making on Tuesday. The game that got the most conversation going was this one, because he and I were leaving. meaning bangles on Tuesday. And people called and just came in so hard on the Niners. And this line subsequently, since we talked about it on Tuesday, has now moved and the

Niners are favored. And that's a pretty big move from about one and a half to now Niners minus one. And it's still heading in that direction. The Niners are a better team. Like their top 10 in DVOA, which is, you know, we've talked about it's sort of that fancy way of measuring every team against their strength of schedule on every single play since is 19th. Burroughs hurt too. By the way, Joe Burroughs hurt too.

And right, that's a huge, huge deal. We don't know the status of Joe Burrow. Is it a strained pinky finger? Is it a broken two fingers on his right hand that sort of help him grip the ball? We just don't know. And then so you think about also, you mentioned Cincinnati is one of those teams that is inconsistent, right? They're inconsistent because their offensive line is so bad.

And you saw that against the Chargers. Like every time they started to get close, the Chargers could find a way to get to Joe Burrow. San Francisco, that's where they thrive, right? They are so much better in the trenches and they're number one in the red zone in offense. So to me, you've got a better team in San Francisco that is a very short favorite. You're not getting the best of the number anymore, but I still think the Niners are the better team. Another game, another game that I want to talk about. Okay, throw it out there and I'll guess. Okay. Raiders plus nine and a half versus the Chiefs. Oh, boy.

You know, last week I went with Denver plus nine against the chiefs and got burned in the end, so I'm fairly bitter about that. Why, everybody likes the Raiders? Let it, do not think about, do not let emotion dictate what you do this week. Yeah, but I'm full of emotion. So what the hell do I do? Don't be. Don't be. This is part of the lesson.

This is how you get your professional better plaque. Yeah, but this is, all right, go ahead, go on. Go on. That's a, boy, if that's a. And boy, if that's how you get a plaque, that's no plaque I want. Forget everything. Forget all the feels, Colin. You can only be a professional if you have no feels.

Listen, I feel badly because last week, I feel like I might have a play apart in convincing you to take the Broncos at plus nine and a half. By the way, I still contend it was the right play, even though I lost it. Can I read you something? Can I read you something right now? Sure. I'm going to go to... Unless it's Othello.

I'm not into a Shakespeare. I will not read... I'm going to read our version. We're not that smart. I'm going to read you our version of Othello. Okay? Last week, last week, against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos had north of 400 yards.

Yep. The Kansas City Chiefs had 267. They had 154 rushing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs had 89. They had more passing yards. They had more yards per attempt. They had more yards per play. They had more first downs.

I knew I was on the right side. Like, I don't feel bitter. You know, when I lose a bet and I'm on the right side, like, I knew Denver was the right side. When that game ended, I was like, give me a freaking break. They controlled most of the game. They had a 20 play drive that resulted in no points. They had a pick six.

Seriously, they had a scoop and score that everybody saw was, that was called back that everybody knew was the bad call. All right? So they were equal to or better than the chiefs. And the Raiders have more weapons than the Broncos. And the chiefs have not covered big numbers. Obviously they did last week. It's not like a statement in totality.

But they haven't proven it. Like last week was not the side to be on the chiefs. That was like a, oh my God, I'm getting away with something here. So I'm still on the Raiders. Here's the one thing that makes. makes me nervous. Last week, the Broncos were a huge, huge public dog, meaning that all the, like, everybody loved the Broncos as huge dogs. Same thing this week with the Raiders. It scares me a little bit. Well, maybe the public is smart. Right. Let me scale back that opinion. Yeah, forget I ever said that.

You know what? The public, here's the thing, though, and we talked about this, like with betting generally now, public is definitely getting smarter. It's harder. They know more than they used to. There's more people coming into the markets because it's legal in more places who are moving numbers, who understand how numbers work, who understand why lines are posted the way they are. Sometimes you get an opportunity. Sometimes you don't. But definitely smarter than they used to be.

All right, Millman, good talking to you, buddy. Have a great weekend. You too, brother. Take care. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer. network, check out our YouTube page, check out our Instagram rate review, subscribe, all sorts of stuff. The volume.

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