The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 2 Picks and Betting Breakdown

Episode Date: September 17, 2021

In Fake Questions, Real Answers, Colin names his favorite non-starting NFL QB, explains why USC waited before firing Clay Helton, and calls out the team's fan base that frustrates him the most. Then Colin makes his NFL Week 2 picks and Action Network CCO Chad Millman tells him whether they're sharp or square. They make their picks for Cowboys/Chargers (11:00), Raiders/Steelers (13:00), Patriots/Jets (15:00), Rams/Colts (21:00), Saints/Panthers (24:00), Bengals/Bears (27:00), Chiefs/Ravens (30:00), Niners/Eagles (32:00), Bills/Dolphins (34:00), and Falcons/Bucs (35:00).Make sure you follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Thunderstruck, adjective. Shocked and amazed by the power of fun on Carnival.

Riding Bolt, the world's first roller coaster at sea. Brian got thunderstruck so hard, his 93-year-old grandmother felt it 3,000 miles away in Nebraska and immediately booked a cruise. Hooray! Get fundersruck starting at 289. Carnival, choose fun. Cruises run U.S. dollars per person double occupancy. Taxes fees, import expenses, additional restrictions apply. Full details on carnival.com, ships, registry, Bahamas, Panama.

The Colin Cowherd podcast brought to you by Fandul. It's never been easier to play fantasy on Fandul, whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan. Fan duel. More ways to win. Hi, everybody. Welcome in Friday morning. We're going to be doing this now for the next 19, 20 weeks. I bring in Chad Millman, and we go over my favorite eight bets of the week, and he tells me if I'm a sharp or a square. But first, it's time for fake questions, real answers. There's stuff I want to talk about. I don't want to wait for you to ask me. Fake questions, real answers, here we go.

Dear Colin, after a sloppy play in week one, a lot of people are saying starters need to play more in the preseason. Don't you think they're getting a tad carried away? Great question. Yes, I do. Football teams have never been refined in September. Andy Reed, Sean McVeigh, Matt Nagy, offensive coaches. They spend off-season scheming new plays. So I do think offensive coaches have an advantage over defensive coaches in September.

Defenses are rarely in great form early. There's a long time baseball saying on opening day, pitchers are ahead of hitters. The belief is that hitters perform worse at the beginning of the season, therefore pitchers perform better at the beginning of the season. Last week, the biggest numbers were put up by the Saints, Sean Payton. Cardinals, Cliff Kingsbury. Eagles, Nick Sariani. Niners, Kyle Shanahan. Rams, Sean McVe.

September is for offensive coaches. Consider that when gambling. Dear Colin, a team need to quarterback right now. who's a backup or unsigned, who is the first guy you'd call? Another terrific question. He's not high profile like Cam Newton. He doesn't have endorsements. But it's remarkable to me how we always forget about Nick Foles,

who outduled Tom Brady in a Super Bowl, who has a career record over 500. In fact, with Philadelphia, when he had decent offensive line protection and a smart offensive coach. He was 21 and 11 and a passer rating above 93. He's played in six playoff games. He's won four. 11 TDs, five picks and a 99 passer rating. Nick Foles has always been as good as his surrounding protection and coaching. Nick Foles, I'm not building my franchise around him. My argument is he's absolutely and has been for the last several years the best backup quarter of back in the NFL. Dear Colin, you're plugged into USC.

Why did they wait until the season started to fire Clay Hilton? Why didn't they do it months ago or even years ago? Well, Lynn Swan gave Clay Hilton an extension. So the current athletic director, Mike Bone, inherited a long Clay Hilton contract. USC was going through some ugly financial payouts. They didn't want to write a check for $20 million for a new. guy and $15 million for Clay Hilton. Ideally, Clay would have been strong enough to get through this season, then they would

have written him about a $5 million check. Instead, they had a write-in-one closer to $12. The reality with Clay Hilton is at Mike Mohn, the current athletic director, was never a huge fan. He surrounded him with elite recruiters, hoping that if he had to get rid of Clay Hilton, the next coach would inherit a team and a roster capable of winning the PAC 12. I believe that is true. The cupboard is not bare.

Mike Bone deserves credit. He, two years ago, realized Clay Hilton, who he inherited, was not perfect. He also realized very quickly, if I put money into the staff, make it younger, very good at recruiting, the next coach has a chance to take over the team and win immediately. And I believe if USC gets it right, with the coach, they'll be favored next year in the conference. Dear Colin, which team and fan base is the most frustrating to you in all of sports? That's the best question yet. It's the United States men's national soccer team.

Every time something goes wrong, they blame the coach. In other sports, we know. inherently the coach can't control everything. Bill Belichick is struggling to win as the greatest football coach ever without Tom Brady. Greg Popovich is largely considered the best strategist in the last 15 years in the NBA. He now can't win without Tim Duncan. A coach, it's understood, is only as good as his players. Really think last year Dave Roberts was the best manager in baseball? But for some reason, soccer fans keep blaming Greg Burhalter for everything. Folks, the world's best soccer coach, whoever that may be, would not get us to the final four in the World Cup.

This team has more offensive talent except midfield than any team we potentially ever had. But we don't have Brazil, Argentina, Germany, England. We don't have that level of talent. every other fan base realizes even great coaches have absolute limitations, Belichick, Popovich, based on talent. All right, here he is Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Now, on this show last week, Chad and I got the Steelers in Carolina right. We both missed on the Bears, the Chiefs, Washington. he did like, he did take the Texans, so he gets a bonus for that.

I said I should have taken the Seahawks. I think I should get a bonus for that. But overall, we were both kind of three and five on this show. So, all right, so the way this thing works. Can I get a super bonus for saying you should be parlaying teams like the Texans and the Steelers? Because I did that and it turned out to be quite profitable. Oh, all right. Go ahead.

You can say that. Thank you. Thank you. All right. But everything here is, it's archived. So there's no baloney here. No, no knuckle balls. This is, you ought to be a power pitcher in this game.

I feel like life is about being judged. And if you are not comfortable with your record, then don't do something publicly. But you and I, we both have massive egos. And it's important for us to share what we know. Yeah. And then to be praised. And hopefully people will forget when we don't do as well as we. So every week I'm going to bring eight games.

And from this eight, I'm going to pick five. And the way this game works is I give you my take on it and you say sharp or square and then give me what you would do. So let's start with this. I like the chargers. It's now minus three and a half. I like them before. I like them more now without DeMarcus Lawrence, easily the best cowboy defensive player. is that the fact that the Washington defense really got no pressure on Justin Herbert.

And now the Cowboys bringing a defensive front without their best player tells me that Justin Herbert at home is going to have a lot of time to throw the football. He was remarkable on third down last week, bizarrely good, 74% against the Washington defense. And it should be noted, a defensive leaning staff. that had more than a week to prepare for them. Dallas has a more offensive-minded staff. I'm going to take the Chargers, preferably at minus three, but even if it's minus three and a half,

sharper square. So the Chargers are a sharp play, but they were a sharp play when this game opened at two and a half. Yes. And now it was bet up to three. it was bet up to three and a half. At three and a half is not a sharp play anymore. It's just the side that everybody is playing and they've been playing it more aggressively since the news about the defensive lineman whose name I just forgot. Demarcus Lawrence, I think. Yeah, DeMarcus Lawrence. And since the news

about him came out, Michael Gallup not playing, there have been some injuries on that team in the span of the 24 to 48 hours just in the last couple days. That's why it's no longer a sharp side at three and a half. Personally, I'm not going to play it anymore because there's an old axiom in betting. Get the best of the number. And oftentimes, if you like the side, but the number has moved so far, especially over a key number like three, and you missed it, you don't bet it. Because then that's going to come back to bite you in the long run.

So I like the chargers in this game. I won't bet it because I don't like the number anymore. Interesting game I feel strongly about. I don't like favorites. Generally, I would take the Steelers minus five hosting the Raiders, Raiders on a short week. I really think what Pittsburgh was able to do, which was completely unravel a more than capable Buffalo offense at home. We forget the Steelers were a dominant defensive unit last year until they fell apart. We were reminded in opening week at Buffalo just how dominant and relentless they are.

Raiders in a short week, I don't even know if they're particularly well coached. I feel like there are two-person offense with Derek Carr and Waller. The Steelers were able to, by committee, shut down Stefan Diggs. I would take the Steelers a favorite to cover here, sharp or dull? Sharp, very sharp, right side. 100%. The defense is fierce. No doubt about it. What was interesting about that, Bill's game, and you and I both like the Steelers, you and I both like the Steelers to win in that game, Ben Rothesberger in the second half of that game, they had a lot of troubles in the

first half with offense. In the second half of that game, he played like a savvy veteran. And when they needed to have plays made, third downs, you weren't worried that Ben Rothensberger was going to turn the ball over. And that's how they won the game. They were methodical. They got the right plays. They had the right turnover from special teams. I thought they were just incredibly really well coached in that game.

Great spot from Mike Tomlin that last week. That's the only thing that scares me up this week is Mike Tomlin is amazing when he's got a rah-rah his team. He's less amazing when his team is favored and they're supposed to win. But I do think this is the right side. Well, I'm going to throw one at you. And I don't even know how I feel, but I'm just going to give you my acumen here. So New England led the NFL last weekend with Mac Jones in a particularly captivating stat. They average nine plays a drive.

And over four minutes. Now, why does that matter? Because it was against Brian Flores. Mac Jones's numbers, and Flores had more than one week to prepare. Last year, Flores, Mahomes threw three picks. Jared Goff unraveled. Mack Jones completed 74% of his throws, one sack, no turnovers in a pass rating over 100. If you go back to what Flores did to quarterbacks last year, he ate them alive.

His numbers, Max, in his first start, were significantly better than quarterbacks last year. So that's the first part of this. They outplayed Miami and lost. So I find a team that lost people are down on. There's value in New England. Secondly, the Jets, this is inarguable, could not run the football against Carolina, meaning they will be more influenced and quarterback-centric. Oh, that's a shame because Belichick has the best record against quarterbacks under 25 in NFL history.

I know the number six, if it was seven, stay away. But I've considered swallowing the six and taking New England, sharp or square? Well, it's square because you're betting a big number on a rookie quarterback on the road. And the only things that make it acceptable are the fact that it is Bill Belichick. And he is the one who is the exception to every single rule. Okay. I will be on the Jets in this game. I think the line is inflated because people are coming away from that game against Miami with the same impression that you have. Mack Jones was good on third down. He controlled the ball. He didn't turn it over. He was preternaturally mature, all those things. I don't like the number. So I'll be

on the Jets. All right. But fine. That's how you see it. It's not the sharp side by any means. All right. The NFL is back in Fandul's Sportsbook wants you to get the most out of every play. That's why they're giving everybody a $10 risk-free bet every week. All you have to do is bet, a same-game parlay bet with three legs or more. And if your bet doesn't win, Fandu'll pays you back, up to $10. Biggest game this Sunday is Chiefs Ravens. My gut feeling this morning is Chiefs, because they've dominated this series. They also get Frank Clark and Honey Badger back. Same Game Parlay. Look for that. The same game parlay icon to know what markets are eligible for same game parley's.

Fandul, easy to use. America's number one sports book. No feeling like nailing a same game parlay bet. New to Fandle sportsbook? They're offering a $1,000 bet if you prefer that. Sign up, promo code Colin. First bet

loses. Get up to a thousand bucks back in sight credit. That's promo code Colin. 21 plus and pressure. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque, others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me.

Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, personal health, personal health, personal. purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with a little Kim?

Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you're just so you. y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed Craig, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So, you're finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast. Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing

and we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns. Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro.

Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia, or West Virginia refund issued as a non-witruable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund 10 bucks. Restrictions apply. C-terms at Fandul.com. Fandul.com slash web. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler. Visit fand-com slash RGARGARG.RGIN in Colorado, RGERS, or call 1-8009 with it in Indiana.

1-8-1-8-1-1-8-1-8-1-8-N-RGent in Indiana. Or call 1-800-9-9-1-800-net in West Virginia. Or call 1-800-9-9-1-800-step or text next step to 5-3-3-3-3-4. to in Arizona. It's the sound of another sale on Shopify, the all-in-one commerce platform I love to start run and grow your business. Shopify gives entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business. So upstarts, startups, and established businesses alike can sell everywhere, synchronize online and in-person sales and effortlessly stay informed. I love Shopify. have for years the tools and resources that make it easy for any business to succeed for down the street to around the globe. Shopify is more than a store.

Connect with your customers. Drive sales. Manage your day-to-day. Reach customers online with an ever-growing suite of channel integrations and apps, including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest and more. More than a store, Shopify grows with you. Go to Shopify.com slash Colin. All lowercase.

Shopify.com slash Colin for a free 14-day trial, full access, at Shopify's entire suite of features. Shopify.com slash COLIN. Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic not enough people know about and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinnwity host of the new podcast, Navigating Adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Each episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories

told by the families that live them with commentary from experts. Visit Adoptuskids.org slash podcast or subscribe to Navigating Adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. And we're live here outside the Perez family home just waiting for the... And there they go. Almost on time this morning. Mom is coming out the front door strong with a double-armed kid carry.

Looks like dad has the bags. Daughter is bringing up the rear. Oh, but the diaper bag wasn't closed. Diapers and toys are everywhere. Ooh, but Mom has just nailed the perfect. car seat buckle for the toddler. And now the eldest daughter who looks to be about nine or ten has secured

herself in the booster seat. Dad zips the bag closed and they're off. Ah, but looks like mom doesn't realize her coffee cup is still on the roof of the car and there it goes! Oh, that's a shame. That mug was a fam favorite. Don't sweat the small stuff. Just nail the big stuff. Like making sure your kids are buckled correctly in the right seat for their age and size. Learn more at nhtsa.gov slash the right seat.

NHTSA.gov slash the right seat. Brought to you by NHTSA and the Ad Council. Okay, I'm not throwing at you. You talked me out of betting the Seahawks last week. Did I? Yeah, you did. I think I did. No, no, I think I did. That's right.

That's right. So I have a rule that well-coached teams that are good, not bad teams, but capable well-coached teams when they play poorly or are humiliated, always bounce back. The Colts not only lost, they were pushed all over the field. The Rams are a good team. This is Stafford's first road game. They're feeling very good about themselves.

The number was four. It's now three and a half. I would take a well-coached, talented team and the points if it's over three against the Rams, who we all now love. They're a little overvalued. It was the Bears. sharp or square? It is so sharp.

I feel like I'm watching a Ronco commercial and you are selling me knives. That is how sharp it is. This is exactly the side you want to be on. I love this game. I love the Colts in this game. I bet it at four. I think three and a half is still good.

There's a stat. Home underdogs coming off of a loss since 2005 in week two, home dogs, 63% against the spread. When the spread is six or less, the Colts fit directly into that system. That is a nice size dataset. And agree with everything you said.

This is one where the market meets the analysis. analysis meets the analysis on the field, right? And so for me, that's 100% sharp play. All right. Here's another one. I've gone back and forth on this. And I like data. So I'm going to go Panthers plus three and a half hosting the Saints. I was on the other side of this. And I got a little birdie inside the Carolina, little insight. Carolina went into that game against the Jets feeling. they were the better side. New coach, rookie quarterback. It was a fairly conservative game plan by Matt Rule.

Donald, week one, gained him confidence. The Saints, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as everybody thinks today. They faced a northern team in Jacksonville heat, which had a distracting

offseason. We like the Saints. And they do have a good defensive front. But Carolina is more, than capable offensively. They're getting more than a field goal. I think as the season progresses and Sam Darnold, remember, he did not play much in the preseason, this was the first time live bullets.

I think they open up the offense. It's too many points. This is a big divisional game. I'm taking Carolina plus three and a half. So look, yeah, I loved the Panthers. This is the sharp side. Three things I want to say. One, I love the Panthers last week against the gym.

Jets, when the number was at four, because I'm really impressed with Matt Rule. I think that defense is getting better. Two, you called me yesterday. We were talking a little bit about some games. You were telling me how much you liked the Saints. And I said to you, I do not like this. And I was thinking all night last night, because I like to think a lot about coming on the show, I want to prep, I want to be ready, want to visualize. How am I going to respond to you on the Saints? and I've been researching this game all day. James Winston, 714 and 1 against the spread as a favorite. On the field, zone looks bother James Winston.

That's what Carolina is going to do. Marshawn Latimore, not playing. That's a huge hit for the Saints defense. This game had been lined. So if we were looking at this game prior to this past weekend, it would have been Saints minus 2. Now of a sudden it's Saints minus 4 and they're traveling after coming off of a huge blowout, that is way too much of a reaction, too much inflation

on a point spread. So I think you're 100% playing the right side in this. Here's another one. Thank you. There's a quality to Joe Burrow, Chad Millman, that I like in people is that I am a believer that life is not about action. I got up this morning. I shower.

I get a coffee. I drive to work. action. My life is largely driven by my ability to react to having to get a vaccine. My wife is mad at me, by Moss is demanding, that how you handle reaction, how you react to action is overwhelmed. The action is the easy part for all of us. It's almost, it's habitual. We do things a lot of our day-to-day lives are very habitual. It's easy. It's reacting that matters. Joe Burrow has a really excellent quality. That Burrow throws remarkably well under duress.

His numbers when pressured, when hit, when sacked, his accuracy does not dip substantially. This is a very good sign. He's comfortable with pressure. He's comfortable in a muddy pocket. He is comfortable after sacks. He is comfortable in that chaos. The bears don't have the pass rush they've had in previous years. I'm going to take the Bengals to beat the Bears straight out.

I don't think the Bears locker room is great. I like Cincinnati to upset the Bears plus one and a half Bengals. I love your action reaction theory. A hundred percent agree. You could argue that what we do when we react is when we are human because that is just pure instinct. I'm responding to what's in front of me. I don't have time to think about it. I don't have time to plan for it.

I don't have time to strategize. love your take on that. Hate your take on the bears and the bangles. Completely disagree. I thought the Bears played much, much better than the score indicated against the Rams. And they ran the ball very, very well against a good running defense. Three plays mattered in that game against the Bears' defense. Three plays in which Matthew Stafford threw over the top, the Bears had defensive breakdowns.

That's what led to the Rams. winning that game. The Bengals, I agree with Joe Burrow, better quarterback, probably better locker room right now. But the Bears at home, with the line moving in the Bengals direction, I don't want to be on the side of the public underdog. I don't want to be on the side of the team that by the time this game gets kicks off, they could be favored.

That to me screams take the other side. So for reasons, both on the field and because of what the market is doing and what the public feels, I will be on the bears. And I will be on the bears to win. I disagree with your assessment of the line, of the spread, and the Bengals chances to win the game. All right. Here's another one. Rarely is a top team undervalued. But the Chiefs, because Mahomes became a spectator in the first half, were pretty unimpressive.

but Frank Clark and Honey Badger didn't play against the NFL's best rushing attack and highest-graded offensive line. The Chiefs are actually undervalued here, and I only have to swallow three and a half. Ravens are on a short week. They're still using backups at running back. I like Kansas City here to beat Baltimore by a touchdown. What do you think, sharp or square? I think it's pretty square. It's the side that everybody will want to take. Betting is about doing hard things. The hard thing is to take the Ravens as a home dog getting the extra half a point, getting the hook at three and a half. It's hard to take the Ravens when they're off of a hard loss when they're traveling back home when they're injured. But it's the sharp side. I mean, you're going to take a home dog. I mean, you're going to take a home dog. in this spot.

And while you talk about what the chiefs were missing defensively, the Browns played really, really well against the chiefs, and the Ravens have a better defense than the Browns. And so I did see some vulnerability on the field for the chiefs, but mostly the sharp side is the Ravens in the hook. I'm going to throw one at you. Sorry. No, it's okay.

This is exploratory. Okay. You know, I told you, I love the Steelers this week. I loved the Colts. the Steelers and the Panthers. Everything else is negotiable. That's why we do this. Okay.

I'm with you on all three of those. Okay. Those are my strongest plays. Eagles plus three and a half. Yeah. Against hosting the Niners. Now, it's telling me to take the Eagles. And I thought Jimmy Garoppolo said something interesting this week on K&BR, the most popular radio station in the Bay Area, knowing that Kyle Shanahan would hear it.

Is that he said, I'm making. the best of it when asked about coming in and out of the football game. Making the most of it is what you say when you go on vacation and the hotel and the airline screwed you. You're making the most of the vacation. It's what you said in the past year with the COVID when your kids had to homeschool and Zoom school. We're making the most of it.

Jimmy Garoppolo is not happy and Traylant is not ready to play in that division. I believe Garoppolo is better than people think and has more leverage than people think. And I wonder if he and the people who are his allies in that locker room, he definitely has lots of allies in that locker room, are terribly happy with Kyle Shanahan. So whereas I think Nick Seriani was making players cry last week reportedly in the pregame speech, they're all in on this young coach, as bad as he may. be at the podium. So the play is probably Eagles plus three and a half because it's telling me to play that. So I know what it's telling me to play. Tell me the side you're on and why you believe strongly in the side you're on.

I 100% believe strongly in the Eagles plus three and a half. Philly's defense, Philly as a team, I think, was prime to make the biggest leap of the year. Their defensive line, as we saw this weekend, is the strength of their team. The other strength is the offensive line. They win in the trenches. And I know that's where San Francisco likes to win too. But if you give me a team that can be so physically overpowering at home as a three and a half point favorite, that is always going to be the side to take. And while the Lions came back and made it a close game, and for a lot of,

lot of people ended up backdooring on the spread against the Niners, the Niners were winning that game handily, and that's what fans are going to see. They're going to see that they scored 41 on the Lions, and that's what carries over. That's why the number is even inflated as it is. So give me the Eagles, plus three and a half. Also, there is some practicality here. The cornerback situation for the Niners is not great. It's not. And so they're depleted. In addition to whatever locker room turmoil there is. And if you break it down, Jimmy Garapolo is good, but he had moments in that Lions game. It didn't go as well as they should have. And so I'm all over. The Eagles at plus three and a half. By the way, emerging young receivers, Philadelphia,

the Niners lost their first or second best corner, Verette. So that's another reason to take Philadelphia. Here's one. Bill's very good team, sloppy week one, swallowing three and a half at Miami. Dolphins plus three and a half. The number is telling me to take Miami. My instincts are telling me that Buffalo will bounce back. But the number is saying Miami. So explain the side you're on to our audience because you are the square and I am vulnerable for going with my gut. I'm a little like George Bush, the president. I don't read the pamphlets. I kind of go with my gut too much. Yeah, the gut should tell you that you want to take Miami. Well, no, my gut tells me Buffalo, but the number tells me Miami.

If you were a sharp, the gut would tell you, take Miami. Because it's a little, the line is a little bit off. Essentially, the bookmakers would line this at three, right? The handicappers, the professional betters, the wise guys, they would say bills minus three. It's three and a half. If you're getting that half a point off of a key number, three, sometimes four, seven, ten, those are the key numbers. That's what games land on.

If you think that a game is lined at three and you can get the half point, you take the half point, you take the team that is at home as an underdog at three and a half. Here's something else that's interesting that's come up a lot on the favorites, which is the podcast that I do with professional bet or Simon Hunter for the volume podcast network. What's been interesting is how the legal betting markets and the money coming in and how people bet is impacting the point spreads because there's a lot. more money coming in that is casual betters that are new to betting. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jette.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark, Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch.

Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust.

I want you to just really be a good person. a good person. Join me, Kea Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood,

pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free our heart radio app, search learn the hard way and listen now.

And they are betting on public teams who are popular, and so it's giving the underdogs bigger spreads than they would normally have. Last week,

underdogs went 12 and 4. Underdogs won 9 of 16 games outright. So you're talking about an opportunity in which most time the sharp side is going to be the underdog side because bookmakers are inflating lines because they know they're going to get a lot of public money coming in on the on the on the favorite. I want to throw one more at you. I feel like I'm in a very giving mood. You know what?

I think as I age, I'm a more of a giver than a taker. So I'm going to give America this one. So the Buccaneers won, but actually played very poorly. They had penalties. They had four turnovers. They're minus 12, and I never bet those numbers. But the Falcons, and this is disturbing, even bad Falcon teams, have scored at home. In the Matt Ryan era, that was either his first or second worst performance at home.

On that track, they usually, fast track, they play well offensively. They were abysmal. The Buccaneers with extra time to prep played poorly and won. Brady with extra times, oh, it's been good. Off-bys, playoff games. It's a ridiculous number. But am I ludicrous to think 12 should not frighten people? and that's a big favorite that could win, it could be an ugly one?

I think there is a 12.5 point favorite this weekend that I'm a big fan of, but it is not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All right. Why? It's the Cleveland Browns. I feel like, look, this is the kind of thing where we'll know who's right and who's wrong at the end of this game. And after the first two weeks, we will have a better sense of what the first week told us, right? It's an awkward phrasing of a sentence, but everyone reacts to week one. I tend to try to find the opportunities in which people are overreacting to week one.

And I am going to make the case that the Falcons were not as bad as we thought they were in week one. The Eagles were extraordinarily good, and they're still not giving credit for it. I think the Falcons ran into a really good team that we're going to see at the end of the year is much, much better than we think. and it's a first-year head coach who is getting his feet wet and probably was really nervous. And that game plan was not very good. And the Matt Ryan's receivers were not getting open. The buck's secondary is a little bit banged up. I think with another week of preparation for the Falcons and an injured secondary for the Bucs,

you're getting a better opportunity. Plus the line is so inflated because of the Bucks being the Bucs and then winning in prime time and the falcons losing the way they did. So I think you're getting a little bit of value there. That was interesting, tick. What's you doing? Trying on glasses with Zeni's 3D virtual tryon. Wait, are those the actual prices?

I say get all of them. Seriously, why not, right? Oh, now I want new glasses. Zenni.com, quality prescription glasses starting at 695. What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination, our sense of wonder,

and our family bonds grow too because when we disconnect from this and connect with this we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org brought to you by the United States Forest Service

and the Ad Council. If I could be you and you could be me for just one hour. If you could find a way to get inside each other's mind. Walk a mile in my house. shoes. Walk a mile in my shoes. We've all felt left out. And for some, that feeling lasts more than a moment. We can change that. Learn how it belonging begins with us.org. Brought to you by the ad council.

Well, this is easy. So what we'll do every week, I'll give you eight or nine. And I have to search. I'm going to go far and white. I know three games I'm taking and I'm leaning with a fourth. But that's why I do this. Because my takeaway, as I told you last week, is I don't make my final picks until Friday morning because I wait for COVID stuff. I wait for injury stuff. And I learned a lot, Millman. I really did. I felt I learned a lot here today.

So Steelers, Panthers. Who was the other one we were locked in on? Colts. Steelers, Panthers, and Colts. Yeah, those are the three I like. I got to tell you. Colt, Steelers, Panthers, an interesting one for me, really interested in San Francisco, Jimmy Garapolo being honest and acknowledging publicly, I'm making the most of it.

You know, it's always the argument of a couple argues in public at a party. What's the right home like? if they can't contain themselves publicly at a party, like if a couple and they're arguing publicly, what do they like driving home? What do they like at home? If Garopolo can't contain himself on KNBR, then there's some anxiety in the room.

And by the way, most of the Niner players are on Garoppolo side. Nothing against Trey Lance, but they went to a Super Bowl with Garoplo. He's a good looking guy, a lot of confidence. He's a baller. They like him. He's an alpha. They like him in that locker room. And also I think the one thing about Philadelphia, it's an interesting, it's an interesting narrative that was set up.

Greg Kosell told me something on Thursday today. And it was really interesting. He said what Philadelphia did a really exceptional job at is many of the early plays by the offense were one read plays, RPO's. empty backfield, spread the defense out, where there was a premeditated, pre-designed sigh to go to for a young quarterback and won early read. He said, later in the season, that may not be the case. Next year it's not. He said, but they set him up, Jalen Hertz, to do things he did well and make the decisions

almost pre-snap. This is what we're doing. and Cocell said it was really smart coaching. They, that Seriani knew what Jalen did well and just kept going back to it and Atlanta could never stop it. It was and he said, you know, that's the classic. Get your players, find their strengths and play to it. And Greg on film said, they really said, this is what Jalen does and we're just going to keep doing it until they can stop it. And he said it was really, really impressive.

He also said two years ago this was the slowest offense in the NFL. He goes on film, they are significantly quicker than two years ago. There's real speed on this offense, including Jalen Hertz, the receiver from Alabama, Rieger, the TCU kid. So listening to CoSell really kind of shifted the way I saw this game. I still struggle with Nick Seriani because he fumbles around talking to the media. and I have verbal bias. If people that speak poorly, I tend to think less of them. It's a terrible habit.

But the president, Sean McVey is slick. I think he's slick, right? He fools me. If you're good at the mic, I think you're, you know, that's why if it was up to me, I'd hire a televangelist to run my company and I'd end up, you know, a train wreck. Yeah. Listen, I agree with you.

I used to be beholden to the slickness. as I've gotten older, I find I just want substance. I want to build everything from the inside out. I have more respect for everybody doing that than anything else. You give me a organization, no matter what it is, whether it's Google or YouTube or action network or volume, build on the fundamentals first. Build from the inside out. Build the foundation. Then add in all the stuff that's going to be sort of shiny bibles. If that's what the Eagles are doing, If the Eagles are building the foundation and their head coach doesn't know how to speak to the media, but he knows how to speak to his players and he knows what's important for them to win, I'll buy that.

I may have completely whiffed on Siriani because I read, but the stories I've read when CoSell said that to me, it was really, it was really impactful. He's like, they really figured out what Jalen Hertz does and they distilled it down to a handful of things and they just kept going to it, and Atlanta had no answer. Listen, mobile quarterbacks, ask Nick Saban in college. It's hard to get your arms around him. I always hear this, oh, people wait until they figure out Lamar Jackson. Yeah, that's not going to happen.

You're not going to figure out the fastest quarterback ever. I can't believe you haven't done this take yet. I don't want my coach to be the guy who's got Instagram-worthy shots at the draft of him sitting on his couch in his beautiful. living room with his indoor, outdoor living and looks like a kendall, I want my coach to be a nerdy guy who doesn't know how to communicate with anyone except when it comes to telling them how to play football. And if that's what the Eagles have, by all means, Godspeed. Yeah, that's a good point. You know, that's why I do this podcast. This is, to me, you're my mentor.

I am but a child. I acknowledge it, though. I don't, you know what? I've said this. I'm not cool and I'm not a sharp. I'm seeking accreditation. But I'm a passenger on this flight. You're the pilot. So this week I feel like I learned last week I came in a little cocky. This week I've been humbled. I'm just sitting back with a notebook and a number two pencil writing down notes.

Everybody in the world is thinking that Chad Millman guy, he's on that, that cowherd podcast. He's the cool one. That's exactly what they're thinking. You know, our wives, I've said this before, our wives look like sisters. It is incredible. When I saw your wife, I don't know why I thought that, the cool one, because I think my wife's cool. I met your wife. I literally left that day and I told my wife, I'm like, there's some genetic connection here.

You guys are. We've got to do a 23 and me. It's incredible. And by the way, both, we've out kicked our coverage, both of us. 100%. I have no problem with it. It's silly. It's honestly silly.

It is. Hey, listen, one more thing. As you know, we entered you as a gift, Simon Hunter, and I entered you into a season-long survivor contest. You won last week. What did I pick? Last week you had the Rams. This week, you are going to choose the Browns.

Yes, I am. That's a good pick. I mean, I can take the Buccaneers of the Browns, but I think I'm going to save the Buccaneers for later. Yes. I'll take Cleveland. The other option you can have is the Packers, but I think you should go with the Browns.

Yeah, I'm not so sure. Green Bay is going to be the same team we think. I'm going to take the Browns. All right. We're in it together. Good talking you, buddy. Just a couple guys who marry redheads, taking the Browns. Beautiful redheads. Yes.

Stylish. See you, buddy. See you later. All right, that's Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network, rate review, subscribe on Instagram, follow us on YouTube, Twitter 2, at Volume Sports. The Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy,

Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not.

not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey,

or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilts of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, Follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.