The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 2 Sharp or Square

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice week two of the NFL season! 3:45 - R...aiders vs. Ravens 5:45 49ers vs. Vikings 8:30 - Jets vs. Titans 12:00 - Broncos vs. Steelers 14:45 - Falcons vs. Eagles 17:00 - Giants vs. Commanders 25:00 - Texans vs. Bears 28:30 - Lions vs. Bucs 31:45 - Cowboys vs. Saints 33:00 - Packers vs. Colts (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.
Starting point is 00:00:42 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.
Starting point is 00:01:38 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.
Starting point is 00:01:55 I don't think there's a more important year for black. people. Listen to look back at it on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.
Starting point is 00:02:12 You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:02:41 The volume. With so many tools and tabs and never enough time, growing a business can feel pretty overwhelming between your email, marketing system, your payment software, your CRM, your content tools, your email tools, keeping track of everything gets out of control really fast. You end up spending more time organizing documents and data than actually connecting with prospects and customers. That's where HubSpot steps in. It's the all-in-one customer platform for growing better. With HubSpot, marketers generate better leads. Sales builds tighter relationships with customers and closes more deals. Simple as that, and service support your customers at scale with tools like HubSpot's AI chatbot and knowledge base.
Starting point is 00:03:23 Plus, with built-in AI to answer common customer questions, brainstorm and write marketing content, and more. so your teams can say goodbye to busy work, meaning your marketers, sales, reps, and service teams actually have time to do what they were hired to do. And when they grow, the sky's the limit. Grow better, faster with HubSpot's all-in-one customer platform. Visit HubSpot.com to get started today. All right, time for Sharper Square.
Starting point is 00:03:52 Chad Millman's CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. So I was a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two, and one. So I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong. on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt pretty good about it. I could go in an order of importance, but I was thinking about this. I am above going in order.
Starting point is 00:04:12 I just give you my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start with a team that is this close to beating Kansas City Arrowhead, and I think the chiefs are a better version of last year's Super Bowl champ, Baltimore. I think the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly well-coached. I mean, the fact that the only way they'll win is physicality and the chargers were more physical. They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's really good. I don't think Lamar will run 16 times on average.
Starting point is 00:04:45 I think Kansas City brings that out of him. It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a half, sharper square. So it's square. But you're not going to find a ton of guys who, when they're doing it. this are excited about betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, right? I was on Carolina
Starting point is 00:05:04 last week, too. The Wise guys will be on Carolina again this week as six and a half point underdogs in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started at nine and a half, got up to 10, and then was bet down to nine and a half, then nine and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer to a number that I think at some point the Wise guys will come back in on Baltimore, but at this big of a number, they're just betting the number. And this early in the season, everything tells you that you are playing against the overreaction, right?
Starting point is 00:05:35 Everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive game against the Chief's team that looks like it can break every rule of betting that exists in the universe, right? The Raiders, people were high on, they got crushed, and they didn't look very good doing it,
Starting point is 00:05:53 and Antonio Pierce made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the athletic that that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory. It was the first time a coach had been down and in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls that has been made in the past eight years. And you could see him on camera. There's videos of him saying, should I be going for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play. and the great play by the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to be on the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:06:30 So let me take an underdog, Minnesota at home against the 49ers. San Francisco in a short week, played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home. Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're great at left tackle. They're also good at running back, tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat. I think Minnesota's actually, I said this before the season, if they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth place team in the history of the league. They've got a lot of good players.
Starting point is 00:07:01 They have a brilliant coach. Really, really sharp guy. It reminds me at Kevin Stefansky before he started winning coach of the year. He's just operating at a different level. This was at six at one point, I think. I take the Vikings five and a half sharper square. Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half. They took them at six.
Starting point is 00:07:18 They still like the Vikings. I got to tell you, I was leaning Niners in that. this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanhan is so good. You and I have talked about this. Like he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It actually, I think, inspires him to be more creative. And he's also been very good on short weeks on the road. Eight and two during his career, one of the four best coaches the past five years on short weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said, I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
Starting point is 00:07:53 You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams that were excellent in one-score games. They played each other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota. Brian DeBall wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more credit as the best coach, right?
Starting point is 00:08:13 And Kevin O'Connell had a similar year, and then last year did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Dayball's team is cratering. When their top quarterback goes down, Then we see what happens last week, a bad quarterback for the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a Cinderella-like first half. Ten for ten on his first ten passes with a touchdown, a 99-yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down pass, like touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach, and I think that's another reason why the wise guys are in the Vikings. So there's two things that I look at with the Jets and the Titans.
Starting point is 00:08:48 When you play a standalone game and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets were pushed around the field, eight straight scoring drives by San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially one of the worst offenses in a league. For a quarterback, I don't think can play. I don't think Will Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I think his judgment's bad.
Starting point is 00:09:17 this is what I saw in the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco makes everybody, so does Andy Reed and McVeigh. They make a lot of people look bad in a week one. I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team. When this number got up to four, now I sound like such a square on this, but four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want to create fours. They'd rather you be three to three and a half. When the market has to go to four, they're signaling, like it is just a better team. This started for the Jets for a better team.
Starting point is 00:09:52 They're pissed. I don't think Will Levis can play. Homefields never met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three and a half. Well, the wise guys like the Titans. And they're kind of holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play.
Starting point is 00:10:06 And that number four is really important. And I'm glad you bring it up. And we'll do that in the last part of my soliloquy here. the Jets had were physically dominated. Totally. Not just that. Their defense, which is supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eight straight scoring drives,
Starting point is 00:10:27 their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get to Purdy, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill Callahan showed last week that he can do something really interesting with this Titans' offensive line from a running perspective.
Starting point is 00:10:47 You know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach, left the Browns this past season to go work with his son, revamp the Titans' offensive line. The Titans' defense did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right? Like, the Bears were scoring on special teams and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said, is a terrible quarterback.
Starting point is 00:11:10 The wise guys are betting the number here. The four is key. Teams that open at 4 or higher at home in Weeks 1 and 2, 60% against the spread the last 20 years. Teams that open at 4 or higher at home after losing their last game against the spread, which the Texans did, 64% since 2020. One more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated on Monday night. they now have a defense that was on the field for a ton of plays going back short week to be against another really physical team
Starting point is 00:11:48 that's what the Titans want to be teams with fewer than 25 minutes of possession in week one six and 25 against the spread in week two that's 19% wow wow so look I'm with you like this isn't going to be one of my five best plays because I don't trust Will Levis and it's and it's it's becoming clear in this league, there is such a delta between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not. It's becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're going to have to play the quarterback in some situations. And this to me is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared. I'm going to take Denver
Starting point is 00:12:33 plus two and a half against the Steelers, and here's why. Thank God. I thought it was a really tough spot for Bownecks in the opener. Loud stadium. You don't really know the defense. You have to go watch Baltimore, Mike McDonald. Also, Seattle's got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him to throw 42 times. He had one terrible pick.
Starting point is 00:12:56 He's more mobile, and anybody thinks. And I had another ex-player who I respect to me this week. He's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may not be the best year-toothed. three, four, he's going to have the best year. The rest of them have defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been good at home.
Starting point is 00:13:16 I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs, not his favorites. Denver plus the point, sharper square. 100%. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. Wise guys love the Broncos here. Probably going to take a little piece of the Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for Bo Nix.
Starting point is 00:13:35 I think the wise guys, they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense. They love Mike McDonald and what he can do with that team. And I think the wise guys were also really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last week as a team versus what they looked like a year ago. And defensively true. But I think they were excited about Bo Nix. And if you watch the game back and we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from professionals who all watch a lot of film, Bo Nix recognizes he missed some easy throws,
Starting point is 00:14:09 and that's because he was still getting to know the pace of the game. They liked the way he was a gamer, they liked the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game. Seattle was a six-point favorite. So there's a lot of sentiment that this is the right side. The line moved from three to two and a half,
Starting point is 00:14:26 and I will say you said it about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest underdog coach, possibly in the history of the game, the past 20 years for sure, not just great as an underdog, great as an underdog winning outright. He is just as bad when he is a favorite. 41, 28 and 1 against spread as a road dog in his career.
Starting point is 00:14:46 3240 and 2 as a road favorite. So it's almost completely flipped, right? And when he opens as a favorite of three or more on the road, 38% against the spread. So I would say you're on the right side. Also, we've talked about this on the show. you know, we do this thing called the luck rankings at action that sort of takes the noise out of all the games and tells you what the expected score would have been based on the stats and if you
Starting point is 00:15:11 didn't have the flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the Steelers and the Broncos. So we like the Broncos here. I'll give you another underdog I like Falcons plus six and a half. I worry about Kirk Cousins' mobility, but I thought Atlanta was at a big coaching disadvantage when they faced the Steelers because Arthur Smith knew their entire roster. And it was Kirk Cousins' first game back off an injury. He was very hesitant, a little like if you looked at Aaron Rogers passing stats in the first game, he moved, he had 21 passes 19 to the left. He was not going to throw blind behind him. He wanted
Starting point is 00:15:55 to see the left side of the field. He didn't want to get hit from behind. And Aaron's great. But that first came back, off the accident, they're all hesitant. Kirk was hesitant. Philadelphia's defense is not good. They spend money on it. They drafted. They were giving up seven yards to play to Green Bay. Green Bay's good, but young. Atlanta's got players. I think they play really well. I know Kirk and big standalone games isn't great. Six and a half's a ton. I would take Atlanta here, sharper square. Totally sharp. Wise guys like the Falcons here. I'm a little hesitant. personally, haven't really laid into this game yet, but there's a lot of factors that go in the direction of what you're talking about.
Starting point is 00:16:38 I think the biggest concern anybody has, it wasn't just that Kirk Cousins was hesitant. There were throws where it looked like he didn't want to plant off his injured Achilles. And so he was short-hopping throws that looked like he was throwing off of one leg, right? So I think that was the bigger concern. And maybe after a full game, he's, a little more comfortable. You know, I think that what's interesting here is,
Starting point is 00:17:05 to the Falcons advantage, their interior line, especially at center and right guard, those are two of the best players at their positions in the NFL. The strength of the Eagles is their interior pressure, not their edges. The strength of the Steelers was their edges. So just sort of, it's not really intuitive, but the way the Falcons play,
Starting point is 00:17:29 it might mitigate the Eagles' greatest advantage. manage defensively. So a lot of wise guys are on the Falcons here. I'm going to take one more underdog. Giants plus one and a half at the commanders. Daniel Jones is actually, this is a vomit game that nobody wants to watch. But I do think Brian Davils are really good coach. And I thought they were bad in the first series.
Starting point is 00:17:50 Washington was just outplayed by a better quarterback and a better team. The Giants were awful. It looked like they hadn't practiced. They've actually had Daniel Jones is five one and one against Washington. When he faces a team that's his equal, he can compete. There's no way I'm giving any, you know, I'm taking any points I get in this game. Giants plus one and a half, mostly unwatchable Sharper Square. Totally sharp.
Starting point is 00:18:13 It is the corner TV game of the week, Colin. It is the game. Nobody wants to watch unless you are betting it. The wise guys will be on the Giants, mainly for the reasons you just said. Dayball has basically done incredibly well against the commanders. Daniel Jones has done well. against the commanders. There's always going to be overreaction in week two.
Starting point is 00:18:35 And obviously the wise guys, or the fans, are overjoyed with what they saw from Jaden Daniels, right? His rookie of the year odds for offense shrank. People were piling in on him for rookie of the year because of how he played and he was dynamic and he made decent enough throws but also the running ability. That is not a recipe that they can sustain. and it also leads to overreaction in the market.
Starting point is 00:19:03 So the bookmaker shaded the number a little bit. And really, this game should be closer to pick. So you're getting about a point of half of value because people are so against the Giants and they love what they saw from the commanders. TD, Tuddy, taking it to the house, in for six, whatever you call a touchdown, one thing's for sure. TDs matter more at Draft King Sports,
Starting point is 00:19:25 book an official sports betting partner of the NFL. On the ground in the air, special teams, or defense. They don't care how you score. They want to bet on touchdowns. You want to bet on touchdowns. Draft King's Sportsbook number one place to bet on TDs. Ready to place your first NFL bet. Bet in something simple like a player scoring a touchdown. Go to Draft King's Sportsbook app.
Starting point is 00:19:44 Make your bet today. Ready to do a touchdown dance of your own. New Draft King's customers bet $5 and get $250 in bonus bets instantly and one month of NFL plus premium. Download the draft king sports book app. The code's Colin. Again, new customers bet $5 and get $250 and bonus bets. and one month of NFL plus premium only on draft kings, the crown is yours.
Starting point is 00:20:05 Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. In New York, call 8778-8-8-HopenY or text Hope in Y 467367-369. In Connecticut, help is available for Problem Gambling. Call 888-789-777-7 or visit ccpg.org. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas, 21 and over, age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in New Hampshire, Oregon, and Ontario.
Starting point is 00:20:27 Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible games, gaming resources, see dkng.com slash FT Ball. NFL Plus premium offer available only to new and former NFL plus subscribers. Additional NFL plus premium terms at NFL.com slash terms. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.
Starting point is 00:20:50 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:21:13 A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement
Starting point is 00:21:31 to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life,
Starting point is 00:21:48 mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:22:14 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Starting point is 00:22:49 Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to? do a little kill. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill,
Starting point is 00:23:09 waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, yeah. But just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS. on the table right now.
Starting point is 00:23:28 Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeartRadio app,
Starting point is 00:23:41 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.
Starting point is 00:23:59 I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch.
Starting point is 00:24:15 Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust.
Starting point is 00:24:30 I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Here's a favorite I like. Sometimes I feel that you can get ahead of the market for about a week to two. It happens more in college. because there's so many games on TV, it's harder for bookmakers.
Starting point is 00:25:03 Sometimes you just, if you're a regional better and you follow the PAC 12, I can remember years ago getting on an Oregon State team, and they just, I knew their personnel really well, and I watched their games and had a good friend up there. And it happens sometimes. It doesn't happen a lot in the pros. I'm not so sure. We're not three or four weeks away from saying C.J. Stroud's the third best quarterback in the league.
Starting point is 00:25:27 I think he's insane. I mean, Greg Kossel on my show is like, He's making throws that almost nobody in the planet can make, like Stafford Buroma Holmes. Yes. I think I had somebody that was at Friday's Bears practice before the game, saying the ball was on the ground more than they'd ever seen it. Caleb is really struggling. Roma Dunzee may not play. Keenan Allen may not play.
Starting point is 00:25:54 I think C.J. Stroud is, he is really something. I mean, he is. That second game he played, I think it was Baltimore. And his career, I was like, wait a minute, this is Baltimore. What is he doing? I think this could be ugly. I think the Texans are going to win. I thought it would, when I guessed the line on this, I thought it would be closer to six and a half, seven, seven and a half.
Starting point is 00:26:16 At six, I think I'd take the Texan sharper square. So look, it's a little bit square. The reason it's at six is because it opened at six and a half and the wise guys definitely felt that was inflated for exactly the reasons you just. said. You know, obviously, we've talked about this. I'm from Chicago. I love the Bears. I will have a text chain on Sundays with all my guys from Chicago. I can't even respond because they come in so fast and I'm so anxious about all the other bets from making. Like, I don't want to talk to anybody, right? 45 texts in the first half of that Bears game. We thought the Bears had already broken Caleb Williams. Like, he was pushing the ball. He wasn't throwing the ball. He was looking at his
Starting point is 00:26:58 first read and then taking off. He was inaccurate. He was throwing too early on deep passes because he already realized, oh my God, my offensive line is crap and I can't outrun these defensive linemen. So we already looked like it was over, right? Like we've seen it as Bears fans at thousands of times. Obviously, we know that's not the case. But you couple that and how bad he looked and the fact the Bears needed special teams
Starting point is 00:27:21 and defense to beat the Titans with how good C.J. Stroud look. he made a throw on a third down. Oh, yeah. Rolling right across his body, middle of the field, third and 19. Got it. It's the kind of throw you can only make if you are an other world talent. We had what? Third and 11, third and 12 to seal the game.
Starting point is 00:27:44 And he at Nico Collins on a dart where Nico Collins caught it with an inch of space before the sideline, got a knee down. That ends the game. Right? Like, CJ Shrout is something special, but that's why the line was too high. So at six, it's about where it's supposed to be. You're not getting much of an advantage.
Starting point is 00:28:05 It might even be a little bit high still. At six and a half, the wise guys like it. So you're playing a bad number. Okay, a game every week, I want you to teach me in the audience a lesson. I don't get the number. So the lions go to overtime. That's not good.
Starting point is 00:28:21 Generally, I stay away from teams that go to overtime. You know, seven, ten, more plays. The Lions, clearly, Baker played his best game as a pro. This line is seven and a half. I still think, without Puka Nakua and three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up and down the field in the second half, did everything they wanted to do. Blake Corum didn't even play.
Starting point is 00:28:46 Tyler Higby, their tight end is out. It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford, and McVeigh, and backups. And they move up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. To me, before, why? Explain how Detroit's a seven and a half. What's the side here?
Starting point is 00:29:06 Well, look, the Lions, according to a lot of power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like, I love the Lions in this spot. And that is a massive number to bet. A competent quarterback in Baker. It is, well, here's a thing. I think that there's a couple things going on. Number one, on the buck side, they are getting overvalued
Starting point is 00:29:31 because Baker was so good in that opening game, right? But you were great against a rebuilding team, and the expectations for the bucks for a lot of people were kind of low, and from a public point of view, they've now exceeded them, and Baker looked unbeatable.
Starting point is 00:29:50 But he played against a team with a defensive line that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that doesn't have great defensive backs. So he could kind of have his way. The Rams are like their game plan, which they had five months to build coming off a playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were still losing 17 to 3 and they needed a couple penalties to get themselves back in a position. and yes, they were moving the ball up and down the field
Starting point is 00:30:23 because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball, and what they did, the Rams, was brilliant. Matthew Stafford, one step drop, first read throw. Adrian Hutchinson was in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing it after about a second and a half, right? Baker is not that kind of player.
Starting point is 00:30:45 Baker is not as sort of efficient with when he drops back and getting to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach against the spread the past five years. Jared Goff, 26 and 9 against the spread indoors. Like, this is a really good team.
Starting point is 00:31:14 I think this is the second best roster in the NFC. You could argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something. They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges. It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I like the Lions here.
Starting point is 00:31:34 I think they are going to blow this team away. Okay. I always ask you for a game I missed, a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable, egregiously bad television product, but I already gave you that with the Giants in Washington. So what say you? Well, look, I do like another favorite. It's a little chalky for me, but I do like the Cowboys against the Saints.
Starting point is 00:31:54 I think, you know, Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season. They are juggernauts as big favorites at home. I am not a fan of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina team and got in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite at home, 15 and 9 against the spread. Yeah, he's a good home fave. Yeah. The past three years as a favorite of six or more.
Starting point is 00:32:20 in his career, 31, 13 and 1, that's 71%. Right? Like, he's just great in this spot. And so I like to, I am on the side of the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven, you're getting a good number.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Here's the game that a lot of wise guys have been talking about and has had one of the biggest moves and it makes me sick to my stomach, but we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers. Oh. What is Malik,
Starting point is 00:32:50 Willis plays. I know. I know. I don't know what to tell you, but like, that's the game. Everybody is talking about, look, this game was at three and a half. It went down to three. Now there's some places where it's two and a half. That is not the squares coming in and betting on the Packers.
Starting point is 00:33:09 That is the wise guys coming in. And, like, I think there's a couple things. One, the swing, the Packers were in what's called, called the look-ahead line, so the line that was set before last week's games, the Packers were four and a half-point favorites. With Malik Willis, they opened as three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight-point swing. Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread. And the way that guys figured it's out is they take how much better is he than his backup. It's not just about what would the line be if he's not playing? It's what would the line be if his backup?
Starting point is 00:33:50 is playing, right? So Jordan Love, as good as he is, is not an eight-point swing kind of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they think there was a little bit of inflation in the way that they reopened the line from three and a half, which is why I get that got that down. But also, there are some on-the-field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis, if he knows anybody, it's the Colts, right? For the past couple years, he's had to prepare for the Colts. Backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first game, 57% against the spread the past three seasons. There is some sort of overreaction in the market that offers a little bit of value. And then just look on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is in trouble. They were not great
Starting point is 00:34:43 this past week against the Texans. They're banged. I mentioned the Jets and their 25 minutes of possession. The other team that this applies to from the past week, the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at. Matt LaFleor, I just said Dan Campbell, best coach past five years against spread. Matt LaFleur, second best spread against the spread.
Starting point is 00:35:08 So a lot of indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers. It's a hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing. If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and a half. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. He's in Oxford, Mississippi now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson. So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a bourbon town.
Starting point is 00:35:36 Can you validate that or verify that? I can validate that. I did have a bunch of bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of us were at Wright's house hanging out.
Starting point is 00:35:50 And, you know, you've interviewed Wright. He is the quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips, accent, like, and he is a Mississippian
Starting point is 00:36:01 and he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out his house and starts with barbecue dinner and then it's a few drinks and then it's a few more drinks and then it's like after midnight
Starting point is 00:36:11 and we're still sitting in the same place and it's beautiful. full outside and we're sipping on bourbons and I get back to my hotel. And you know how in hotels, like there's eight different lights and eight different lights switches? You're not used to like the layout, right? Maddening. And so when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind. Like, I can't see anything. I need to feel the room. And I realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to get like nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found the light switch for
Starting point is 00:36:41 the hallway. Found the light switch for the light behind the TV. found the light switch for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the desk lights, the, you know, the side table lights by the bed. Could not find the light switch for the overhead light. Like I'm in the wall, cannot find it. I go back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them up and down, cannot find it.
Starting point is 00:37:02 I had to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like, I know Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm not so far gone. I'm going to forget this in the morning. I can't find the light switch for my overhead light. And he goes, okay, what do you want me to do? I'm like, do you have any idea where the light switches are in my room?
Starting point is 00:37:25 He goes, what room are you in? I go 325. He goes, all right, let me think about it. He goes, no, and I don't have anything down here that maps it. I was about to say to him, again, after midnight, there's only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but I'm about to say to him, any chance you can come up to my room and check out where the lights are. And then as I was about to say it, I'm like, that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say after midnight to a guy working the front desk.
Starting point is 00:37:54 I said, you know what? I'll figure it out. I put the phone down. And I say to myself, I'm like, I'm just going to have to sleep with the light on. Like, I don't know what else to do. And then I gave myself a new rockney. I'm like, Millman, you're going to find this light switch. You can find this light switch.
Starting point is 00:38:11 Again, I'm hands on the wall, feeling it around, feeling it around. it around. Finally, I get to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like the thermostat. Found the light switch. Turn it off. Felt full relief. Tripped on my way to the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way. Yeah. If that would have been a woman at the front desk, that's a lawsuit. Yeah. I come up to my room, good you? By the way, burns for it. Clearly it's so good. I cannot find a light switch. All right.
Starting point is 00:38:47 I'm going to bounce back. Good seeing you, buddy. Good seeing you, too, brother. I'll see you later. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Starting point is 00:39:03 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:39:28 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far far away, such as the biology of Tom, tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. Eighty-four was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down,
Starting point is 00:40:39 and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite offers. Like Mark Lamont Hill. on the 80s. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:40:59 A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
Starting point is 00:41:22 So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.