The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - NFL Week 8 Picks and Betting Breakdown, "Fake Q's, Real Answers" on Brady's Backwards Hat

Episode Date: October 29, 2021

Colin does Fake Questions, Real Answers on Brady's backwards hat, inside info on the USC head coach search, and why James Harden can't complain about the NBA rule changes (3:00). Then, The Action Network CCO Chad Millman tells Colin whether his NFL Week 8 picks are sharp or square. They give their picks for Cowboys/Vikings (14:00), Patriots/Chargers (21:00), Jaguars/Seahawks (23:00), Steelers/Browns (25:00), Titans/Colts (27:00), Giants/Chiefs (30:00), Buccaneers/Saints (33:00). They also discuss the question Colin personally asked Tom Brady (37:00), and why Colin's NFL picks have been so brutal this year.Make sure you follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. Look, Valentine's Day is almost here, and you know what that means. It's time to...

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soccer, or any fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan. Fan duel, more ways to win. Hi everybody. Chad Millman in 10 minutes. First though, it's fake questions. Real answers. We do it every Friday morning. I got things I want to talk about. I don't want to wait for you to ask me the question. Dear Colin, it seems like everybody in the world wants you to comment on Tom Brady wearing his hat backwards Sunday against the bears. You want to give the people what they want?

Yeah, fine. As a society, we've gotten more casual. You can go to a Vegas show. They used to wear suits to Vegas shows. You'll see guys in surfboard shorts. People at stakehouses come in with their hat on backwards. It used to be 25 years ago, you wouldn't go to a steakhouse with a hat, period, forward or backwards. Society's just gotten more casual.

I'm not an overly rigid person. Generationally, I think it looks tacky, especially in more professional settings. But I kind of go where society tells me to go. There's the speed limit, get a vaccine. here's a law, here's a regulation. I don't fight society. I consider myself a surfer and life is one big wave and I just try to ride the momentum of life and stay happy.

I'm okay with it. It's not what I would do. I'm okay with it. Dear Colin, everybody wants to know if there's any new inside information on the USC head coaching job. What do you have? Actually, I have great new information. The number one candidate is James Franklin. The number one concern is the cost of his staff.

USC initially concerned that James Franklin, who has a big presence and is a great recruiter, he tends to be a little bit, and Nick Saban is too, a control freak. Urban Meyer is too. Most of the great coaches are. USC, I've been told, has gotten over that concern. The concern now, what is the budget for the staff? James Franklin is a big presence and a great recruiter. He won at Vandy.

He wins at Penn State. He needs a great offensive court. The better the coordinator, the better is teams. And that'll probably cost, considering the L.A. housing market, 1.75 million a year. It would cost in the SEC, maybe 1.25. L.A. is a different animal. James Franklin, I'm told, is the number one target. LSU. The number one target I'm told is Mel Tucker.

Both Mel Tucker at a press conference this week and James Franklin at a press conference this week both came off, in my opinion, a little evasive as they stumbled through questions about those jobs. Mike Tomlin of the Steelers did not stumble because he's not been offered it. He wouldn't accept it and had no interest. In 25 seconds, Mike Tomlin put the rumor out. James Franklin and Mel Tucker, when asked about the USC and LSU jobs, both stumbled. Evasive, clunky. Why?

Because their agents have been constantly. contacted and those job offers are in the works. Dear Colin, did you see TNT moved inside the NBA off Thursday so they don't compete against Thursday night football? Being the media insider you are, what's your take? Well, it's a smart move. The NBA actually has self-awareness. You know, an intelligent skier avoids the avalanche, not tries to ski it down the hill.

There is nothing even competitive between the. NFL and the other sports leagues. It's trying to compete with hockey in Canada. It's trying to compete with the English Premier League in London. The NFL is not only the most popular sports league in America. It's the most powerful, the best run, the most bet, the most consumed, everything they touch works. And the NBA, which has lost 36% of its TV ratings in two years, finally came to a realization. We have got to stop the bleeding with our TV ratings. How?

Get off TV up against the NFL and Thursday night until the season is over. I've argued for years that the NBA season should start on Christmas. That should be the first TV games on Christmas. That's when the season starts. Push it back. So to 75% of the season, 80% of the season, not only doesn't compete with the NFL and college football, it doesn't compete with NFL training camp,

and it ends August 1st. You're not lacking courage when you don't want to be buried by an avalanche. You lack intelligence when you're willing to challenge it. Dear Colin, is it unfair that the rules have changed to hurt James Hardin in the NBA? Well, no, rules were used to slow down Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. the NCAA in 1967 made dunking illegal. It became known as the Lou Alcindor rule.

There were rules to slow down Wilts Chamberlain. The NBA widened the lane from 12 to 16 feet. The NBA instituted offensive goaltending. The NBA changed how you could inbound the ball and also how to shoot free throws since he would leap from the line to put the ball in the basket. This is what the league does when they feel there's a star that can manipulate a rule.

Wilk Chamberlain at the free throw line leaping and doing a finger roll into the basket. The PGA, tiger-proof courses. Major League Baseball has lowered the mound or raised it 24 times. Leagues and athletes have to adapt. Hardin was manipulating the rules. He'll be fine once he gets in better shape. But he was taking advantage of a rule and the NBA. smartly put an end to it.

Dear Colin, is KD's move to the Nets becoming one of the worst moves in sports history? Yes, I think it's one of the worst moves a star has ever made. Let me give an example. When I was at ESPN, people thought I was crazy to go to FS1. And what I had told many of my friends is, what has Fox and the Murdoch family failed at? Fox TV stations around the country? succeeding wildly. Fox News, a billion dollar a year revenue monster, Fox business, the Wall Street Journal,

the movie business. Then they created a second movie business called Searchlight, which did smaller, more independent-feeling films. That was a big hit. Fox had succeeded at virtually everything they had done. Doesn't matter if I have to agree politically with their ideology on every issue. So Fox was an easy move for me. Meanwhile, think about, Katie played with Steph,

Curry. Steph Curry's life is nothing but successes. He was a great high school player, a great college player, a great husband, a great charitable spokesperson, a great shooter, a great NBA player, a great teammate, a great dad. What had he failed at? Katie left that to go with Kyrie Irving, who first of all failed geography. We know that because he thinks the world is flat. He couldn't stay healthy at Duke. He was initially in the NBA at Cleveland, largely considered a bust because he couldn't stay healthy. He worked briefly with LeBron, but then blew that up. He went to Boston and blew that franchise's momentum up. And KD. chose Kyrie over Steph. Steph's report card was all A's. Kyrie's report card was incompletes and failures.

I think it's a tragic move and may stop KD from ever capturing another title. All right, Chad Millman, my buddy, Chief Content Officer Action Network. By the way, before we start, Fanduel wants me to mention this, so I might as well mention it. I went through one of my college picks. I love Notre Dame over USC comfortably. I think USC's in a tailspin with an interim head coach who's really more of a little. position coach, Dante Williams, good recruiter, though. I took Ole Miss to Hammer LSU.

I think they're a mess right now with the Ed Orgeron situation. And I said there's no way Tennessee can stop Alabama's offense in the second half they couldn't. So I went 3 in O in my college football picks. I do like Michigan State plus the points this week against Michigan. I don't think Michigan State secondary. I think it's incredibly vulnerable, but I don't think Michigan can punish it. They don't throw the ball consistently down the field.

I think that's a very close game. Although I will tell you I'm a little concerned with Mel Tucker and being distracted. James Franklin and Penn State put up a complete dog performance last week. What a shock. He's rumored to be up for the USC job. So as coaches call their agents, as coaches call their agents and get in line to take these big jobs, Mel Tucker at LSU, the leading candidate who I just told you, James Franklin, leading candidate right now at USC, they start assembling their staffs.

They start being distracted. Don't kid yourself. I've seen this a million times in bowl games where a staff is leaving and a underdog team that's totally focused blows them out. Watch Michigan State being distracted because Mel Tucker's putting together a staff potentially for LSU. He would take that job if offered. Franklin, I'm told, wants the USC job.

and as I said earlier, both at press conferences this week sounded completely distracted with really bad answers when asked about the rumors of them leaving their respective schools. All right. All right, Chad. Here we go. Now, this last week was a terrible week in terms of odds. I went two and three. I stink. I'm okay with it.

I'm comfortable in my own skin. So let me start with this week. I like the Cowboys minus one and a half at the Vikings. One of the reasons is in stand-alone games, Kurt Cousins historically. shrinks. I also think the calf injury for Dak Prescott is an advantage. The Cowboys are at their best when they run the football about 55 to 57% of the time. Because of the calf injury, they will. Zeke and Tony Pollard will get lots of work. They're healthy up front. I think the Cowboys, this is the only team that's covered the spread. Why? They're still undervalued. I like him to beat

the Vikings sharper square, Milman. Square. And the reason. The reason. you went two and three last week is because you probably didn't listen to me and everything I was saying because I didn't go two and three last week. In my best five, I went three and two. And three and two over the course of the season, that's how you put money in your pocket. So this is a square pick, my friend. It's a square like in a Quentin Tarantino movie. It is square. The Vikings defense is top ten across a variety of metrics. You mentioned Dak Prescott and the calf injury. Dak Prescott has not been pressured much this year. When he is pressured, he is not a very good quarterback.

And the Vikings defense, while they haven't been forcing a lot of turnovers, they are able to pressure the quarterback and do it effectively. That's going to be a challenge for a guy who has a calf injury. What's most impressive, though, about the Vikings defense is their top 10 in a variety of metrics without forcing a lot of turnovers, which is really all the cowboys have been doing on defense. and it's sort of made everything else shine a little bit brighter. And so you're talking about a defense that is good, fundamentally good, not getting the value against a defense that is not so good,

getting a lot of attention. That's why the line, even though the Cowboys are the team getting the majority of the bets here, it's moved in the opposite direction. You've got a reverse line move here. So the Vikings are the right side in this game. A couple of the things, you know, some Mike Zimmer stats against a non-division opponent since 2003. He's 48, 26, and 1. It's about 65%. He's also about 60% against the spread at home. So most wise guys, they've got this power rated at closer to a coin flip. One other thing you

have to think about. Dallas is undefeated against the spread, six and no, right? This has only happened six other times this late in the season in the past 20 years. So you have to ask yourself, are the Cowboys due for aggression with a defense that commits a lot? a lot of, that forces a lot of turnovers, but isn't that great otherwise, or are they unbeatable? I'm going to take a Vikings team at home that performs well with a good defense, which, one more thing. One more thing I will say. Look at the Vikings losses right now. Two of them are against two teams that we now see as being two of the better teams of the NFL, the Cardinals and the Bengals, two games that they should have won. So it's a team that would they really

be two point underdogs or one and a half point underdogs if they were five and one, with wins over the Bengals and the Cardinals, probably not. Take the Vikings. Hey, the NFL season is approaching the halfway point. Fandul's sportsbook has a little something different to offer for the Sunday night matchup between Dallas and Minnesota. Listen up. Fandals given new customers 25 to 1 odds on any touchdown scored in the game.

What does that mean? It means you can end the NFL Sunday night by winning $125 on a $5 bet. Okay, I like Dallas minus one and a half if Dallas. Beck Prescott plays. I like Zeke getting a touchdown. Kirk Cousin shrinks on standalone games. Dallas is now running at a higher percentage than all but three teams. With Dak and his calf strain, they'll be more run reliant.

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but in It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your

podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month,

I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.

And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro.

Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app,

Search learn the hard way and listen now. Seven days, max refund, 10 bucks. Restrictions apply. See terms at Sportsbook, fandul.com. Same game parley available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler. Visit fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Jersey, and Virginia. Or call 1-8009 with it in Indiana. 1,800-270-17 for confidential help in Michigan. Tennessee Redline is 1-800-8-9-9-7-89. Or go to 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia.

Or call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-4-2 in Arizona. Or visit ccppg.org slash chat in Kineph I like it. It's the sound of another sale on Shopify, the all-in-one commerce platform I love to start run and grow your business. Shopify gives entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business. So upstarts, startups, and established businesses alike can sell everywhere. Synchronize online and in-person sales and effortlessly stay informed. I love Shopify. Have for years the tools and resources that make it easy for any business to succeed from down. the street to around the globe. Shopify is more than a store. Connect with your customers. Drive sales. Manage your day-to-day. Reach customers online with an ever-growing suite of channel integrations and apps, including Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest and more. More than a store, Shopify grows with you. Go to Shopify.com slash Colin. All lowercase. Shopify.com slash Colin for a free 14-day trial, full access at Shopify's entire suite of features.

Shopify.com slash C-O-L-I-N. Look through your children's eyes to see the true magic of a forest. It's a storybook world for them. You look and see a tree. They see the wrinkled face of a wizard with arms outstretched to the sky. They see treasure and pebbles. They see a windy path that could lead to adventure. And they see you.

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Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than. you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. All right, I took the Patriots at a much better line that it is now. I got the Patriots at plus five and a half. It's now down to four and a half, I'm told. This is why I like the Patriots. So the Chargers, if they didn't get a boatload of turnovers, don't be the Chiefs. The Chargers, if they don't get a PI call, lose to the Browns. The Chargers,

Los to the Cowboys. Justin Herbert's still really, really young. Bill Belichick against quarterbacks with under 25 starts is really, really good. And Mack Jones in his last 10 quarters has played excellent football. I got him at five and a half. I'll take him at four and a half. I think the Patriot to the side, sharper square. This is really interesting.

You're on the sharp side, and you can tell because of the way the number has moved. It has been a sharp love since the number opened at six, bet down to five and a half, bet down to five, like you mentioned, down to four and a half. Personally, I would make an executive decision here. I'm going to be on the Chargers, only because I think you're buying Mack Jones at the peak of the market. He just dropped 52 on the New York Jets, right? But also think about this.

Who is Matt Jones beaten? He beat the Texans? He beat the Jets twice. he's in an offense that is designed to throw the ball three to five yards downfield. He's in an offense that is designed to rely on the rush. The Chargers are coming off a by. The Chargers are a team that was relying on third and fourth down conversion. And by the way, third and long and fourth and long.

So when they lost to the Ravens a couple weeks ago and we love the Ravens, we expected that kind of regression to the mean. but it's still a team that is going to go for it often. And the Patriots are much more conservative with Mack Jones than they were with Tom Brady. This is a game that could very well come down to fourth downs. And if it's going to come down to fourth towns, it's also going to come down to the Chargers going for it to score more points. When the number is getting much lower, which is at four and a half,

and I wouldn't be surprised if it got to four, I like the Chargers of this number. I'm going to take the Jaguars plus four at the Seahawks. Trevor Lawrence and that offense is actually playing pretty well. They're off a buy. Seattle without Russell Wilson really doesn't do anything particularly well. They're on a short week. The Jaguars probably four to five extra days to prep. The weather looks like the cyclone bomb is gone.

I think this is a lot of value here. I don't know if Jacksonville can win. but I think the offensive side of the football, they've done a really good job. I think they're highly competent. I think they're running backs work. I think their receivers work. Trevor Lawrence has cut back on the turnovers.

I get more than a field goal against a team with Gino Smith. I'm on the jag side, Sharper Square. Sharp as attack, my friend. The Jacks can run the ball, right? I think the Jacks. The Jags can run the ball. Right now, they've got the better quarterback. The Seahawks without Russell Wilson are a bottom five team.

You're seeing the value of Russell Wilson in real time with Gino Smith. He should not be favored against anyone. This is a, this is betting on the helmet, which is what the public is going to do. They're going to bet on the Seahawks because the Jags historically are not going to be the team that you want to bet on. I probably will bet the Jags outright to win this game because I don't think. think the Seahawks are a very good team. I think they're in shambles with Gino Smith. I completely agree. The wise guys agree. The Jags are the right side at three and a half at four, even if you want to bet him on the money line. All right. Now I'm going to take a favorite Cleveland, even with Case Keenham or Baker at minus three and a half.

Okay, the Steelers beat the Seahawks and Gino Smith and struggle to do it. This is the 27th rated offense. Now consider that. That's counting all the bad rookie quarterback. That's counting all the Teddy Bridgewaters. That's counting the Daniel Jones, who aren't rookies but not playing spectacularly well. This is a terrible offense in a league which punishes bad offenses. And Cleveland with Case Keenham is not as good as Cleveland with Baker Mayfield, but they're getting healthier. I think we saw in Dearness Johnson. They can still run the football.

I think it's the best offensive line since the Cowboys and Dak. I've said that multiple times. I think it's a great offensive line, not a good one. I think Cleveland wins six, seven points. That favored I'll take, sharper square. It's kind of neither, meaning at three and a half, they kind of favor the Steelers. If it's at three, they kind of favor the Browns. The reason of why they like the Steelers at three and a half by a scosh, just a little bit,

it's because of what the Steelers defense can do to pressure the quarterback. And to be honest, you mentioned Baker Mayfield. wise guys don't care if it's Baker Mayfield or Case Keenum. They really see so little difference between the two. Neither of them are very good under pressure. In fact, if you look back to when Case Keenham had that NFC championship game career year with the Vikings, when Stefanski was his offensive coordinator, he was terrible under pressure that year. He just happened to be great every other element of the game, right? So you've got Mike Tomlin, who's in one of his underdog Ra Ra spots and you've got him being what 36 15 and 2 against the spread beyond week

three since 2003 as a dog with a team of an equal record or better 28 7 and 1 80% during his career again that's when Ben Rothsburger is at his peak now you're obviously kind of getting the ghost of Ben Rothersberger and you mention sort of the offensive troubles but this is still going to be a division brute battle, those usually come down to a field goal. So if you're getting half a point, then you're getting a little bit of value on the Steelers. I'm going to take the Colts minus two hosting the Titans. There's two things that jump out to me. This is a much more important game for the Colts. It's really the season. So if they lose to Tennessee for the second time, they lose the tiebreaker. They're probably with their record, not a playoff team.

too many good playoff wildcard possibilities. This is the season for the Colts. And I think one of the things that's really impressive about Carson Wentz is not only the way he played in a monsoon after really bad first half turnovers, he played a really solid second half. But it was the coaching, unlike Shanahan with Garoppolo, they never lost confidence in him. They believe in him. He's throwing very few interceptions.

the team is getting healthier. It is a must win game. Tennessee's off back-to-back, wildly emotional wins. I swallow the two and take the Colts sharper square. Most interesting betting game on the board. This game opened Titans minus one and a half, meaning the Colts were underdogs. The Colts are now favored by two points.

Three and a half points is a pretty big swing. The way sort of professionals look at it, if you're going over zero if you're going over pick it's not as big of a move as if you say go from three to six and a half obviously because there's a number of three there's four which is a key number there's six which is a key number now in football but three and a half points even over the zero is a big big move this is a pros joe's game and you are on the side of the pros if you look at the betting tickets the number of betting tickets all of the betting tickets are on the Titans because of what they did to the Chiefs, because of what they did to the bills the week

before. But the money, the bigger bets, the money is coming in on the Colts. That means the wise guys love the Colts here. And I think they're still going to like them. It's probably not going to move much more beyond two. It might get to two and a half. But the Colts, they like the Colts. This is a much better defense with you mentioned Carson Wentz, but also their offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor looks like one of those running backs who's going to be like the top fantasy pick next year. So all of the advantages going towards the Colts,

along with what you just said, which might be the most important thing, they lose this game their season's done. This is a must win. And by the way, I would say, if you're looking to bet the Colts in this game, you might as well take a little taste on the Colts to win the AFC South.

We had the same conversation, I think, last week, about the Bengals. win last week against the Ravens, and you got to bet the Bengals at 10 to 1 to win the AFC North because now that number has shrunk so much. Same thing with the Colts. They win this game and they're expected possibility to win their division shrinks considerably. Last week I did something, I think you know I never do. I hate betting double-digit favorites, but I took Tampa over Chicago. I wouldn't touch the Rams Lions. I don't like big favorites at all. But last week, the average margin was 19 points.

No seven point or larger underdog this year has won a game. I've got some theories on what is happening at a macro level I'll get to after this pick. But I'm going to take the Chiefs minus 9 or 10 against the Giants. Similarly, this narrative that the Chiefs are done, Tennessee is a terrible matchup. And I've always had a rule that very well coached talented teams that are humiliated, Remember a couple weeks ago when the Rams humiliated the Giants and the Giants came out this week and actually played their best game of the year against Carolina? Kansas City was humiliated. It's Monday night, an extra day of prep.

The offense is still fine. Daniel Jones is still mostly predictable. I know it's a big number, but I'm seeing more and more of these Saturday numbers on Sunday. I'm going to take the Chiefs to cover, Sharper Square. Well, this is actually the one that we've talked about this. I'll do the podcast, The Favorites with Professional Better Simon Hunter. And he recalls, we do the Tuesday podcast, go through every slate, do the Thursday podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes, for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'll say it. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became big. than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes

of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right

where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the look back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations. with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase

that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth?

Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keer Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Let's talk about some games we start to zero in on. He'll always get called from his wise guy buddies. And they will say what they like and what they don't like. This was one of the games. He and I both like the Giants.

They like the Chiefs. I think this game should probably be power rated around, say, six. I think that it's still a vestige of what the Chiefs used to be. And I don't think that the Giants are getting the credit they deserve for playing well in certain spots. I think it's going to be really hard for the Chiefs to cover this number because their defense is just so, so bad. And one of the things that the Giants have been doing really, really well this year, they've been running the RPO with Daniel Jones, who's deceptively fast, and it makes really good decisions on the edge. And the Chiefs can't do anything on the edge. So the Giants are going to be in

positions to convert on third down. They're going to be in position to hold the ball. They're going to be in a position to move the ball late in the game if they are down by 14 points for a backdoor cover. For me, this is just too big of a number for the chiefs in a situation where it's been a year since they were able to cover consistently. So I'm against you. Okay. I always ask you this. The Atlanta game to me was incredibly tasty, but I've been burned so many times. I'm a little scared. Is there a game that I have not discussed that you have a strong feeling about for our audience? Love, love, love, love the Saints. Love the Saints this week against the Bucks.

Numbers about five and a half. It's been going up. This is going to be another pro Joe game. The pros are going to be on the Saints. The Joes are going to be on the Bucks. The Saints defense is just really, really good. And we've seen Tom Brady struggle more on the road. we've seen with the Saints because of what they did against the Seahawks.

They're a little bit deflated from a primetime game. You mentioned the Bucks blowing out the Bears as huge favorites when a lot of people thought the Bears would be able to cover in that game that we didn't know yet what the Bears were going to be. So you're getting a huge amount of inflation on the Bucks. You're getting deflation on the Saints. You've got a really good defense. I think it's a great coaching matchup.

I like taking the Saints in this spot. So that's certainly a game that I'm thinking quite a bit about. Are you ready for the big day? Not your big day. Her big day. Valentine's Day. Celebrate the one who caught your heart. Go to FTT.com to save 15% through February 14th with code crush 15 on fresh. Flores delivered flowers for your sweetheart.

See website for details. FTT. Give with meaning. And we're live here outside the Perez family home just waiting for the... And there they go. Almost on time this morning. Mom is coming out the front door strong with a double- arm kid carry. Looks like dad has the bags. Daughter is bringing up the rear. Oh, but the diaper bag

wasn't closed. Diapers and toys are everywhere. Ooh, but Mom has just nailed the perfect car seat buckle for the toddler. And now the eldest daughter, who looks to be about nine or ten, has secured herself in the booster seat. Dad zips the bag closed and they're off. Ah, but looks like mom doesn't realize her coffee cup is still on the roof of the car. And there it goes. Oh, that's a shame. That mug was a fam favorite. Don't sweat the small stuff. Just nail the big stuff. Like making sure your kids are buckled correctly in the right seat for their age and size. Learn more at nhtsa.gov slash the right seat.

Visit nhtsa.gov slash the right seat. Brought to you by NHTSA and the Ad Council. Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic not enough people know about and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinnwody host of the new podcast, Navigating Adoption, presented by Adoption. U.S. Kids. Each episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories told by the families that live them with commentary from experts. Visit Adoptuskids.org slash podcast or subscribe to navigating adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. So here's my call in theory of the week. So I had a question to Tom Brady this week. I was on some Zoom call and there was like 15 of us or 12 of us.

you know, Jim Nance and Scott Benpelt and Adam Schaefter, those kind of guys, right? And then somehow I snuck on. And I asked Tom if you could make one rule change in the NFL, what would it be? It could be CBA, offseason, rule change, whatever, a radical change in the league. And he said, Colin, my good friend, he didn't say that. He said the NFL is becoming a skills competition. that if you have a good quarterback, it's virtually impossible to stop. He goes, my 600th touchdown to Mike Evans, I would not have thrown that ball five years ago.

But the safety can't hit anybody. And he said, and I noticed this two weeks ago, I told this to you. The best quarterback won 13 of 14 games two weeks ago. If Josh Allen doesn't slip, it's 14 of 14. There are fewer upsets in the league. The margin of victory. These lines now are often Saturday lines. The best quarterback leads seven of eight divisions.

The only exception is Mahomes, and it's not like Herbert and Derek Carr are slouches. Between the regulations and the lack of really good corner talent, Steve Kimes talked to me about this, the best quarterback now is just winning all the games. Like the Dallas Minnesota game, to me, comes down to, I like Dak more than Kirk Cousins. I'm having my worst year ever betting. I hit 57% almost every year for 15 years. years. Last year's a COVID year, no preseason, I threw it out. I have friends who bet a lot. They can't hit. And I'm throwing a lot of stuff out. I've never done. I've never bet big numbers.

I always, my betting theory was always take competent quarterbacks getting points. Well, competence not good enough anymore. And Brady went on to say, when he came into the league, even 10 years ago, he goes, you could win multiple ways. You can't anymore. You can't anymore. You can in one way. We have a quarterback in weapons. That's how you win. He goes, when I started with New England, when we played finesse teams,

we won every time, highly skilled teams. But Pittsburgh would beat us. They weren't nearly as highly skilled, but they were physical. Well, when you take the physical out of it, it's just a seven-on-seven skills competition. And he goes, even though I'm benefiting, I don't like where the league's headed.

And so that's just kind of my theory on this, all the things I've always used aren't working. I mean, I've never bet 38% in my life. I was at 57 my life. I can't get anything now. Your takeaway on this. Dude, there is so much to unpack there.

I don't know if I want to talk about the Hall of Fame level of name dropping from Kimes to Van Pelt to Chefty to Man to Brady. I can't believe like this call happened. and I'm just hearing about it now. That's amazing. The Saturday lines, that's such a great inside baseball reference to like these lines looking like college football lines because every Saturday you'll see a 21 point spread. And in the NFL, you'd never see that. And last weekend we had the Cardinals as 20 point favorites and they freaking covered. And you make an incredible point.

I will bet every single weekend with my best friend growing up, a huge fan of yours, by the way. And every year, the reason we bet together is because we'd do a head-to-head and I'd crush him because I'd bet home dogs. I'd bet huge, I'd bet dogs that were huge underdogs against teams that look like they were world beaters. And he would do what the public does. He'd bet favorites. He didn't matter.

Whatever team was better, that's who he was going to bet. And this year, like, everything's been turned upside down. And it's been really challenging. The books are getting killed, right? because the books love when the big underdogs win. And last week, like, you had the Lions. And that was it. The Cardinals killed the Texans.

The Bucks killed the Bears. The Packers killed the Washington football team. And the Tennessee Titans were like the one team that the public was backing that wasn't a huge favorite and they won. So it's been a really challenging year for a lot of people to bet. I think what you're talking about with the skills certainly has something to do. with it. It's incredibly frustrating to watch football right now. Almost inevitably, there is going to be a holding call or a pass interference call in a series that is going your direction.

It's incredibly challenging to bet. I feel terrible for you. I feel terrible for a lot of people. The game is changing before our eyes and we have to adjust on the fly. You know, like for instance, Buffalo minus 13 and a half hosting the dolphins. Well, the dolphins are distracted with the two and nonsense. They have the worst past. blocking line in the league. The bills have the deepest defensive front in the league where they rotate eight to nine guys. I would have never consider that game.

And part of me is like, oh, yeah, a totally focused bills team is going to run them out of the stadium. Yeah. Seriously. I've had this conversation multiple times with professional betters this week. I've said, who do you like in this game? It's such a weird game. And they were like, oh, I like the bills.

I'm like, really? You like the bills? and I'm like 13 and a half point favorite against a team that like needs a win. It's overinflated. The bills are going to be the public side. And they're like, sometimes the public's right. And also the bills average like winning the, beating the dolphins by 20 points during the McDermic career during the middermic era. So like it's changing.

And sometimes the right side is the public side. And we all got to get used to that. All right. I'm not going to win this week. It's not easy. No, no, listen, nothing. Marriage isn't easy. Child raising isn't easy.

Winning NFL bets isn't easy. The only thing that's easy is eating pie and it's not good for you. Everything that's easy you die earlier because of. Seriously. It's funny you say that about marriage. I was getting, Simon, last week was like giving me a hard time because I was waffling on. I think, you know, betting one of these games, he's like, oh, Chad, you're, you know, you're a middle-aged dude living in Connecticut. You're so afraid to take a risk. I'm like,

dude, you're a single guy who's a professional better that lives in New Jersey. Okay. I got married. I had kids. I left ESP and a start of business. All of those things are bigger risks every single day than betting on a football game, right? Like, you just mentioned marriage. marriage and having kids, there's nothing riskier than that. Like, tying your life to somebody else, bringing kids into the world, the fear, the anxiety. Those are risks, man. Betting on a football game is not a risk. The only job better than mine is a professional better.

I always had this theory. I'm going to throw this at you. So I watched a documentary on sports gamblers a couple years ago, and it was so sad. These guys that bet baseball, you have to watch. watch the games. It's terrible. I would just bet the NFL because you can do the biggest bets. The books allow the biggest bets with football because the majority of people are protected because so many people bet it. And I only have to watch mostly Sunday and Monday football. And I can have a life. A lot of degenerate gamblers just are not time efficient.

If you're betting baseball, you're not having sex. That's the way I look at it. You're literally on a Tuesday night watching a Reds Brewer's game, that is no way to live. So you know a lot of professional gamblers. Don't even say their name. Take the five smartest. Don't most of them bet NFL football. It's a better quality of life. They bet everything, though.

That's the difference. If I think about the professional betters I know, a lot of them don't have great personal relationships. They don't have, or they got married very late in life, or they're watching baseball. They're watching every college football game. They're betting a lot of college basketball. You know, I got into this. I got into this because 20 years ago, I wrote this book called The Odds about these guys who bet on sports for a living. And I was in Vegas for like six months. And one of the guys I tracked, this guy named Alan Boston who is one of the, you know, I know, I know, Alan. Right. Right. So like he's one of the best, at the time, he was the best college basketball better in the world. Like I would sit in his house on a Saturday. He's betting hundreds of thousands of dollars on a game. And when a game's over, win or lose, he's picking up the phone. He's putting it back in play, right? It is a, and it is an exhausting life. The very end of my book.

he's going to the grocery store. I'm like, what's on your list? He goes, I'm getting this, I'm getting this, I'm getting this, and then he's like, oh, hold on. He writes down one more thing. I go, what did you add? He goes, get a life. Like, it's just a hard, hard life if you want to be a professional better.

Yeah. No, Alan Boston, I mean, that guy bets Lehigh basketball. Oh, my, dude. Not only does he bet Lehigh basketball, he could give you a history of Lehigh basketball and tell you why Lehigh basketball should in theory be better than Duke basketball. Like, forget about it. It's every single game. If there's a college basketball team, but look, that's why professional betters love college basketball is because there are so many games. There are so many teams. It starts in the fall when bookmakers are still caught up in college football. They're still

caught up in the NFL. They're still caught up in the NBA. Putting up like what they call the sort of the small school lines back in the day, you know, only a few places would do that and to get some kind of limit down, whether you can get two dimes, three dimes, which is like two or three thousand dollars, a lot of bookmakers wouldn't do that. And because there's so many games, it's so hard to keep track of it, but college basketball was for a long time was where betters made their money. Just an education every week. Could see anybody.

Do what I can. Do what I can't be invited to calls with Tom Brady. What was going on? Was this some kind of like, hey, let's get all the cool, influential people together. and we're going to figure out how to fix the NFL or we're going to figure out like what's the next cool NFT that we're all going to put out? What is the purpose of this call? Jim Gray contacted me a week ago and say, hey, you're one of the 12 people. We want on this thing. And then I said, yeah, okay, I didn't even know who was going to show up. And it was, you know, Van Pelt,

Nance, you know, like Schaefter. It was a bunch of people, Steve Young. And I was on it. So I was, you know, obviously humbled to be on that thing. So I thought all weekend about the question I was going to ask him. I went into the weekend with one question, thought it was too pithy, came out of the weekend, asked another. And he gave a great answer. He gave a four minute and 48 second answer. He gave a great answer. What was the other question you were going to ask? The first question was you grew up idolizing Joe Montana.

He had a very funny moment in a Super Bowl against the Bengals where he spotted John Candy in the end zone. And he came back, goes, hey, everybody, it's John Candy. And I said, when you've kind of mastered the art of quarterbacking, gronk, is one of your best friends and one of the funniest guys, you and Edelman. Are there moments for you, Tom, where the rigidity of the position, the ease of it now, especially now in the skills competition era, that you, not that your mind wanders, but you have sort of a ethereal, jokey moment that it's a lighter move in that huddle and more things are ad-lib than we would believe.

My concern was he would say, no. And I would be like, okay. So I thought if I made Tom give me something, which was come up with one change in football, if the owners or the commissioner allowed you that dignity. And he gave, as you would imagine, a very conscientious Tom Brady answer. Those are the moments. I actually find those when you can get a thoughtful answer about something that these players love. so much that is so inside the game, they are, they are just fonts of knowledge. There were

years and years ago, when I first got out of college, I started working in Sports Illustrated, and we went to Dallas and we did a entire issue about the Cowboys. It was me and a guy named Rick Tullander, who was a writer at SI at the time. And the Cowboys are great, right? But even in the mid-90s, they give you whatever you need. Their PR staff is amazing. And they let you go anywhere. They're not following you. They're not asking you what's going on. They give you free reign of back then what was Valley Ranch. So I'm in the locker room. Troy Aikman is there. I'm like 22 years old. I haven't spoken to Troy Aikman since that day. And but it was right when the league had changed the rules on the balls you can use and how much you can work them in.

And Troy Eakman's like pulling a bag of pulling footballs out of a bag. And he is just blistered about not being able to work. them in about these new rules. And it was such an inside moment into how quarterbacks think about the game and how they feel about rules in the league and that they aren't just these robots who go out, you roll the ball out, you play. They've got so many theories on what could work better or what is disadvantage to them or what is an advantage to them. I love that stuff. Love it. Yeah. So do I. Yeah. One of the things I've always loved about football and turns me off about baseball is that baseball is so reluctant to change and football will change a rule for the Super Bowl. I mean, literally the Patriot Eagle Super Bowl, they're like, all right, that juggling stuff,

those were catches. We're just changing the rule. And the NFL has always seen themselves, even as they've grown in popularity, as an underdog chasing baseball. Baseball is now a massive underdog and still views itself as the leader in the clubhouse and is very rigid and reticent to change. And that's one of the reasons I'm always so turned on to football. They're constantly willing to adapt for a better television product. And baseball, little league baseball figured out the replay before the bigs. That just drives me nuts.

Well, you know, football is the most popular sport in the country because of the point spread. And baseball could never figure out the point spread. The point spread was invented in the 1940s by a guy named Charles McNeil who was a trader an options trader, commodities trader in Chicago, math genius, was a huge better, invented the point spread, and started using it at a local book. Like he was a bookmaker. And then he started betting it and became this incredibly popular way to bet on football. You couldn't do it in baseball. It only worked because of the scoring format for football. But you can mark the trajectory of the NFL's popularity and the decline of Major League Baseball to the invention of the

point spread in the late 1940s. Mind blown. Or television. Either way, but I'm going with the point spread. I like that better too. All right, buddy, good seeing you. See you, my friend. The Volume.

YouTube channel, Twitter, at the Volume Sports, Instagram, rate review, subscribe. Good stuff. Talk soon. The Volume. If you love to be remembered as the person who gives the best. Best birthday gifts? I'm here to tell you that 1800 Flowers.com is your ultimate birthday gifting destination. 1,800 Flowers has thoughtful and artfully created options that are guaranteed to deliver the best birthday surprise. Shop thousands of unique gifts at 1,800flowers.com for exclusive offers and great values.

To order today, visit 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get

at your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.