The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Nick Wright Part 2, International vs. Domestic NBA Stars, Jayson Tatum, Nick Sirianni + Dan Campbell Over Their Skis, Colin’s NFL Betting Theory

Episode Date: January 10, 2024

Nick Wright, host of “First Things First” on FS1 joins Colin for an extended two-part podcast. In part two, they debate whether the emergence of international players as top NBA stars is an indictment of the AAU system and whether it’s bad for the NBA brand (3:00). They also discuss whether Jayson Tatum missed his window to win an NBA title (11:15). They wonder if the playoffs will expose Lions coach Dan Campbell and Eagles coachNick Sirianni as being over their skis (19:30) and Colin explains his theory behind NFL betting that allowed him to win over 60% of his Blazing 5 bets (35:20). Finally, Nick Wright offers his totally unbiased theory as to why the Chiefs could get their act together and find success in the postseason (45:00). (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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that this is an interesting topic. You know how we both. I really like. I'm very much a windshield over a rearview mirror guy. I just don't care about the old days. I just don't care. But I was thinking about, I love the NBA, and this doesn't bother me, but I don't think it's great for their long-term viability or growth. Zion and Jha were going to be domestic stars. Both due to immaturity have fizzled. Now, Jaws hurt. Zion's hurt. And I do. think you've done a little European travel and my mom was European and I've done a little bit. I do think their academies create more mature players at a younger age, higher skilled, more mature. They don't have an AAU circuit like us. They don't gas their players up. And I think it's

very difficult. If I was 17, 18 and being told how great I was, it would affect me. And I watch the league now with Janus and Yokic and Luca, I mean, even to SGA as Canadian. And I look at our domestic players. And I'm not questioning their commitment or their excellence. But Steve Curris said this repeatedly. AAU basketball is not great for the ascension of young people. It's not collaborative. It's just about you and people gravy training you.

And I look at the NBA right now. It doesn't bother me because I love big. that can shoot handle. I love watching Yokic play. I know it's ugly, but I love it. But your thoughts in the crowded, as we become more distracted on our phones and TikTok, and as

the college football is growing, soccer is bigger globally. Where is NBA? Are you concerned at all about the NBA and the European growth and the domestic player shrinking? I don't, so

to me, these are almost separate. So right now, first team all NBA would be five international guys. Right. It'd be Luca and Shea as the guards. Yeah. And Janice, Yokitin and Bede is your bigs. That would be that. And right now, that would be your first team all NBA. That would be your top five probably MVP ballot. Tyrese Halliburton would probably be next up. And right, because of what's happened with Jha, I don't know who somebody's, this wasn't my initial idea. I read a tweet or heard a podcast.

Sometimes I get a little self-conscious sometimes. Like I don't want to take someone's idea. Sure. But I also consume so much stuff. Like I don't know where I first heard it. And so somebody posited the idea is Anthony Davis, the best American player. And I stopped. And I was at first, I'm like, no.

And then I thought about it. And I'm like, defensively, yes. Well, like, is it, and is it between he and Tatum? Yes, yes. And if that's right, and if that's where we're at, that is a problem. That's not an indict. I'm not to, those guys are great players, but nobody thinks either one of them is in the discussion for best player in the league. And so, and if we were to talk about the, if we were to make a list of the eight best international players and the eight best American players.

The other problem would be this. Three of the eight Americans, maybe four of the eight Americans. Now I think about it, are old guys. Steph LeBron. K.D. and Jimmy Butler. Those are, you know what I mean? Jimmy's the youngest of the group. And so that is, it's not like the NBA is not going to have enough talent because it is such an international game and you're getting more and more guys from overseas.

but like the you there is a I think oh and by the way when we're talking about the best American players the guy I left out who's ascending there and would be the hope because of his age is Anthony Edwards yes like could Anthony Edwards get there where we're talking about but from a pure strategic or popularity standpoint I don't think it's great for the league if all of the I think it's really good for the league if some of the best players earn an I don't think it's great for the league if all of the best players are international players. And so, and obviously people believe Wimby is going to be on that track. Now, he's, that's to me less about like the international game and more about the fact the guy's

7-5. You know what I mean? And has, and is skilled. And so I don't know the answer as to why. I think AAU too often gets used as a boogeyman. you know, my son played high, high level amateur basketball. They had really good experiences with it. The kid who I think is a really nice role player for the Knicks, I've talked to you about this,

Quentin Grimes. He was my son's teammate one summer. Those practices were good. That was a good team. They were good kids. So I think sometimes AAU basketball gets a bad name. But there is something going on where there is a different stylistic. approach to basketball from many of them.

I mean, Shingoon is clearly like an international style of player. Now, he's not a star, but he might be an all star this year. And so I don't know the answer. And I does also feel like Shea almost should count as an American. Like he's not, you know what I mean? He's from Canada. It's just kind of bad luck. Yeah, exactly.

But yeah, so I don't know what the solution. I don't know if there is a solution. I don't know what the answer to it is. But it's undeniable that it's trending in that direction. And it happened fast. Yeah. 20 years ago, European player meant soft. And it was like, wow.

No question. It was like. Tony Kukov. A hundred percent. And it was, and it was basically, okay, aside from Akeem Olajuwon, who by the way, went to college in America, you know what I mean? Yeah. you had an American experience.

Aside from him, if you're best players, an international guy, you got no shot whatsoever. And it switched really fast, really, really fast. I mean, 10 years ago, it was just Dirk and Akeem as far as the like, no doubt all-time legend. And Dirk was considered kind of a soft, offensive only player. Yep, exactly right. And so it changed fast on us. and I don't I also there is I'm not sure that somebody should maybe somebody has and I just haven't read it either written uh this is like a darrell mori sloan conference type of paper or maybe a book because the other thing is this the international guys again aside from she who's Canadian but the European stars they're all six eight or taller yeah it's big skilled guys yeah you know luca's a guard but he's big we're not getting a bunch of of like six two wizards with the basketball from Europe.

It's all like Janice is this point forward and bead. Yokic was such a unique player. So I don't know what it is, but it's clearly, it's clearly happening. For good or for bad, it's happening. Yeah, and let's just acknowledge that 18 months from now, Wembe will be in that discussion. So it's not stopping. So I was thinking about this.

and I want to continue on with the MBA. And I have said this is that people show you who they are very early. One of the things when I started the volume, I said, be careful about hiring people that could be difficult to fire. Meaning they're temperamental. They are grudge holding. They're petty. They're on Twitter for the wrong reasons. We'll try to burn you down on the way out the door.

So we've had three or four people that we, we always. have discussed hiring and I said, what if you had to let that person go? They didn't drive revenue. They were difficult. I said, you know, be careful about that. So people show you who they are very early and very early in Jason Tatum's career. I like him a lot. I don't love him. I like him a lot. But very early in his career, he showed you something that Michael never illustrated. Kobe didn't. LeBron didn't. D. Wade didn't. is that he lacked confidence in big spots. You almost had to push him into taking shots.

Is that in these big fourth quarter moments, his second, third, fourth year, we were all like, oh, love his body, can put it on the floor, good teammate, plays real defense, can kind of let Jalen Brown take control. Sometimes Marcus Smart, a defensive player. Yeah, turn into the pseudo-alpha. Yep. And I watch the Celtics, and I still don't trust him years later. He is at least 60, 70 percent. It's his game. But there are moments still with Jason Tatum. This is never a Luca issue. It's not a Janus issue. No, and it's weird. I mean, this is spot on. Am I wrong? And by the way, and it's a weird thing to say because he had 50 in a game seven. We saw him have that amazing game six against Janice a few years ago. So it's in there. We saw him as a rookie.

dunk on LeBron and seem fully confident. Peak 2018 LeBron. We've seen all these things. And Celtics fans will get very, you know, parochial and territorial and defensive. But I think deep down, everybody knows that the Celtics, it's not they can't win the title, but they have to win the title like the 04 Pistons,

meaning it's got to be a collective effort. Yep. And that is the hardest title to win. The reason we always go to the 04 Pistons is because every other champion from 1980 to now has had a top 20 all-time player. So it's not like an indictment to say Tatum's not that because it's only been like 16 guys in 40 years to be the best player on a champion. The only other guy other than the 04 Pistons, you would say is Kauai's championships,

but he was a guy who was trending towards that and injuries kind of under, you know what I mean undercut the player he was going to be. Every other team literally had a legend. And I don't think anyone looks at Jason Tatum and says he's going to be a legend. That's right. We say his ceiling is MVP candidate. Yeah. All the other guys, the ceiling was how many MVP's?

Okay. And that's the difference. Okay. So I threw this out last week. It's my favorite comp I think I've ever done in the last year. Wow. Wow. Andy Murray tennis player, Great Britain.

So there's Fedder is better than him. And he's like, okay. And then Federer's getting old. And then Federer passed his prime. And Andy Murray has this little window. Oh, crap. Here comes the Joker. And his window was about a year.

Okay. Okay. Tatum, LeBron, staff. He just doesn't have that savvy, that game. It's like, oh, he's so close. And he gets a little window. Finals against the Warriors doesn't win. And here comes Yokic and Luca and Janus.

He's the Andy Murray of the NBA. That his window was a sliver. He was there at home. And the and. And it's that close. And Federer beat him in the final set. And it's just like, oh, okay. That, right.

And that might be it. And that might, and so that's why I give the Celtics credit because they have built a team that if healthy is so well-rounded and has so many top 50 players on it. You know, of today's game. You know what I mean? Like they, their worst starter is still a really good player. Yes. You have Derek White, Drew Holiday, Tatum Brown, and Porzingis. Excellent starting five.

It's a great starting five. they are banking on that again, that's the O four Pistons. The O four pistons, you have Rip Hamilton, you have Tashon Prince, you have Rashid Wallace, you have Ben Wallace, you have Chauncey Billups. Yeah. Those are five excellent players, but no, nobody that is, oh, holy shit. Yeah. And that's where, and I think Tatum's probably right now better than any of those five guys.

Yeah, so do I. But that is, that's just the truth. Yeah. That's why the NBA is so unique. Like when I, and I want to make it clear to the audience, when I say 1980 to now, like, and I'll just do the like my own personal like off the top of my head rankings. I did that list, the 50 best players last 50 years. So Kareem to now. And if you go through the champions from 80 to now, you have the Lakers who had Kareem and Magic, who are two and four.

You had the Sixers who had Dr. J. and Moses who are 12 and 13. You had the Celtics who had Larry Bird, who's seven or eight. You had the pistons who had Isaiah, who's right around 15. And then you had the Bulls who had MJ, the Rockets who had Akeem, and then the Spurs who have Tim Duncan, the Lakers with Kobe and Shaq, the O4 Pistons, and then you have the Heat who have De Wade, who's right on the fringes, but Shaq, who's firmly in it. Obviously, then the Lakers again with just Kobe.

And then, oh, the other team, you know what's funny, I left this out. The other team they're trying to be like is the 08 Celtics, who again, they had Garnett, who is, Garnett's better than Tatum, but he was, you know, so, but it's the same type of thing. So I shouldn't have left them out, but Garnett's on the fringes of it. And then since then, we know who it is. It's LeBron, it's Steph, it's Dirk, who's right there. It's Yonis, it's Yokic, it's Duran, it's Kauai. And it's not an indict.

And this was why I didn't believe in the Nuggets. because it was the same map. I just underrated Yokic. The math was, okay, Yokic is really good. He's not a legend. And I was wrong. It's like, oh, shit, he's pretty legendary. He's pretty great.

And so I guess maybe it's self-fulfilling in that if the Celtics get there, we'll look at Tatum like that, but I don't think we will. If the Celtics get there, I think it'll be like, wow, that was an awesome team they put together. And so it is why it's hard to, it's also why the heat haven't gotten over the, quite over the home. Yeah. Because the heat have tried the same thing.

They've got an awesome player in Jimmy, an awesome starting five, a much better coach than Boston has, obviously. But it's so hard. Yeah. When you get in the finals for the heat, when they've done it, you got in the finals, you got your team, all of it, and LeBron is sitting there. And even old ass LeBron was like, for two weeks, I can kick your ass. Then you get in the finals again, and Yokic is like, yeah, I can kick your ass too.

It's just hard when that guy's on the other side. And for the Celtics, what's going to be the tough thing is this. And the NBA doesn't always come down to this, but man, it's hard to overcome in one series, much less three in a row. I would argue the Celtics to win a title are probably going to have to win three consecutive series, the second round the conference finals and the finals were the best player on the courts on the other team. Yep. That's fucking hard, man.

You know what I mean? Because Embed in the playoffs isn't the same. But still, Janice, any of those guys, Jimmy Butler is proven in the playoffs, and then whoever you face off in the finals, that you might have the better two, three, four, five, but the best player is going to be on the other team. It's going to be hard. Can we, I'm not trying to hijack your podcast,

but can we talk about Philly, for a second. The Eagles. Oh, you're not hijacking it. Philadelphia. So much I love about them, but I have a feeling Nick Seriani is closer to the opening press conference than the Super Bowl. Okay. So, so here's the thing there.

So Wilds did an interesting thing on the TV show, which was he made the point that if the Patriots fired Bill Belichick and then surveyed this was before Grable got fired. and surveyed the landscape. They're like, okay, who's the best coach available? They'd land on Bill Belichick. The idea, you know what I mean?

He said it was the same thing as the moment the Raiders cut Derek Carr. They're like, okay, we need a quarterback. Who should we sign that someone would come in and be like, well, here's this guy and it'd be Derek Carr. That the guy you're getting rid of the best available. So the opposite of that thought exercise is this. It's about to be, what, half a dozen job open, jobs open. If Nick Siriani were fired.

Would anyone hire him to be their head coach? If the answer to that is no, then you have to ask yourself, should he be ours? And I know that sounds harsh, and I know that sounds too much. But I would remind people in Philadelphia, Andy Reid 14 years, five conference championship games, a Super Bowl appearance, nine playoff appearances, eight double-digit win seasons, one bad year gone. B and C quarterbacks mostly. One bad year gone. replaced by Chip Kelly.

Chip Kelly, 10 and 6, 10 and 6. The next year didn't make it to the end of year three after back-to-back 10-win seasons. Doug Peterson wins a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback. The next year wins a playoff game with a backup quarterback. The next year makes the playoffs. The next year, a bad season gone. So this idea that Siriani's untouchable, Gary Kubiak, I looked it up today, was 46 and 18 with the Broncos, Went to the division round four times, went to a Super Bowl, and they fired him.

They were like, you know what? You're out of here. So if the Eagles lose six of seven down the stretch, and the losses are the Niners by a million, when that game, I'm going to go through it because think about it, that Niners game, the Niners had three losses, the Eagles had one, that would have locked up the one seed with six weeks to go. you'd be four games up with five games left. You know what I mean? The Niners would have then had four losses and the tiebreaker would have been to you.

They get blown out. Okay, that sucks. The next week, they could have locked up the NFC East against Dallas. They would have swept Dallas. Dallas would have five losses. They get blown out. The next week, Drew Laugh has the only relevant moment of his NFL career, 92 yards, to win the game. You then, you know, escape against Tommy DeVito.

then Kyler drives the field on you, hanging 35. Yeah. And then Tyrod Taylor is up 24-0 at halftime on your starters. If then you lose to Baker, oh boy. Like, it is, it is rough. And there are real, real questions about what is this team? Right now, aside from a play that is likely going to be banned next year, what do you do well? and I don't know the answer.

Hey, look, I can argue it's become Brandon Staley. At the end with Brandon Staley, he argued, hey, we're losing close games. We're not getting blown out, his quote. Then they got blown out. And it's like, okay. So Siriani is like, hey, these are go either way games. And then you fall behind 24 nothing to the Giants. So not that it was a mutiny, but with Staley and Nick, by the way, you know who the Eagles

were going to hire, if not Nick Sariani, they liked Staley. So they were looking for a young voice. And so when you start going from narrow, narrow loss, there's two or three things that I always think about. You go from narrow, narrow losses, okay, to ugly losses. And then you ask yourself, would the chargers at the end, Herbert before the injury had regressed. Jalen Hertz has regressed. There is nothing the chargers or the Eagles do well. Now, there's nothing.

Well, and so then the other problem is, it's like, well, let's not forget the year he just got last year out of Jalen Hertz. And then you ask yourself the really tough question of, you watch indie this year? And you watch what Shane Stuyken was able to cobble together with Gardner Menshoe. I understand the last play of the last game didn't go well. But they're a yard away from maybe being in the playoffs with that indie roster. and there's your big chess move was demoting your D coordinator and promoting Patricia and now your defense is worse than it was. Your quarterback has regressed.

You're not going to have more talent in the future. The best offensive line, seven first round draft picks on your defensive line, two stud receivers. So I and now, and folks, you know, all eight mile myself. here a bit. Folks think I don't like Siriani because you told Chiefs fans to fuck off after they won that game. That is not it. But that is a noteworthy

moment. Yeah. Because that is it was the same way, and I pointed out last year in the lead up to the postseason when they're blowing the Giants out in the playoff game and that little sky cam gets him and he does that mean mug like shaking his head, yes. And then in the Super Bowl, when they're going to get a challenge gone their way,

and he's kind of histrionically showing, like, pointing one way and Jalen Hertz has to stop him like, hey, man, what are you doing? He felt to me like a bit of a frontrunner. Yeah. Like a guy that is really good when things are going good. And in his defense, it was like, well, we don't know how he's going to respond when things are going poorly because they've never going poorly. Well, now they are. And it's going disastrously.

So I think it's at least a question. if Billy loses. Well, you know, here's another topic. First impressions matter. I've used the American Idol example a million times. I don't know anything about music other than I enjoy it. But I can listen. I can watch American Idol and say, that's a hack, that's a star.

That's an employable lounge singer. And I know nothing about music. That Dan Campbell has sort of a blue collar work ethos and a like a big. or the average fan who's bust on his ass for a living is going to love him. He's really a guy

a fan would like to have a beer with. Dan's opening press conference was embarrassing. Like, just like, novice, like, eat your kneecaps is bad.

And he was 419 and 1 to start. And then, you know, things start working out. He gets, I've said this before, the star of that franchise is not golf for Dan Campbell

or Ben Johnson. It's the front office. They've had like back-to-back back incredible drafts, like great drafts. And so then he gets a bunch of good players and they start winning a wonky division where Aaron Rogers leaves, the bears are a tire fire, and Kurt Cousins is, you know, sort of okay. And they win and they deserve credit for it. But now you're watching Dan Campbell and you're going, he's a little over his skis. He's a bit of

a meathead. Seriani had the worst press conference I've ever seen. Could not speak. acknowledged it, very turbulent like Dan Campbell early, Stuyken comes in, elevates the offense, he leaves, they stink. And in both instances, I ripped both. I said, you know, Dan came off as sort of a very limited meat head. And we've seen examples that he's sort of an, he's the overly aggressive guy. A little too emotional. Emotional. Listen, he's emotional. He's a fan. Yeah. And it's that Rihani looks completely over his head is that first impressions do matter.

You ever watch Sean McVeigh's first press conference? Obama wasn't that slick. I mean, it was like it was on a prompter. I was like chest face forward, looking at the camera. I mean, I literally thought, I mean, God, I'd run through a who is this like 19-year-old? He was like 32. Yeah. I was just like, holy hell.

First impressions matter. McVeigh's first press conference, knocks your sock off. And that I think that if you go back to Suryani and Dan Campbell, there are qualities about both that are endearing. But man, if you can't get the opening presser right, I've said this. It's a real thing. Nobody wants to say this, but it does matter. We elect people based on, are they telling us? Are they good at the podium?

If you can't get through four and a half to eight minutes on a podium, by the way, you've flown in. You've thought about it. You know there's going to be tough quiet. You're preparing for it. Well, so that last part, I think, is the most interesting. Because I wonder if some of these guys would be better if they weren't for, if they didn't know it was that day, if it was off the cuff. like Siriani's thing to me. Campbell was a different story.

Campbell was, this guy's a former player. I think players are going to, I looked at that press conference and said, I totally get why motivationally he's going to be excellent, why players might relate to him. And that very moment I said, and I, listen, I get it. I'm a nerd. I didn't play. I understand.

But in that moment, I was like, my guess is he's not going to be great at the situational football. ball stuff. Now, he actually has been shockingly good at, he does follow the quote analytics, but it's just really what he's doing is he just wants to go for it every time. And the analytics support going for it. But like, and so like I think it's almost by accident that he's following it. It's like super aggressive, go, go, go. But you saw the cartoonish end result of that when he went for that two point convert from the seven yard line, which is one of the worst decisions. Exactly. He was an angry fan that was like, this is bullshit. I got screwed. I'm going to show you. So that's different. Siriani's thing was he seemed nervous. Like I bet Siriani if he had not been told there was a press conference coming. I think he was hurt by the fact he had thought about it all night. But that's a different type of concern. That means when things get tight, are you going to get tight? When that means, you know what I mean? When the pressure gets up, are you going to, you going to, respond or not.

So that was a different level of concern. So the reason I brought the whole Siriani thing up was I have a different kind of galaxy brain question for you, which is this. If they lose to Tampa and they fire him, isn't that the perfect spot for Belichick? You have all that talent on defense.

The offensive skill position guys are there. And they're already there. And your weakness is drafting Howie Roseman's an expert at it. exactly right. And it's like, hey, you've got, however limited Jalen Hertz might be, even if last year was an aberration, the best quarterback he will have had in a half decade.

He will look at Jalen Hertz like he is Patrick Mahomes 2.0 when he's been able of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappy and the last, you know, legs of Cam Newton. The offense is in place. The defense has all this blue chip talent up front. And Belichick's been getting the most out of secondary players and linebackers for 20 years. This Patriots defense doesn't have stars on it and they're awesome. Like the stars are hurt, Judon and Gonzalez. And that is why if I were Philly and I lose to Tampa, I wouldn't fire Siriani to fire Siriani.

But I sure shit would consider it if I got on good, you know, good intel. Bill Belichick, he wants to stay in the Northeast. Yeah. He wants to go with the blue chip. People are like, ah, maybe. Atlanta. I'm like Bill Belichick doesn't want to coach the Falcons being the set. Like you stay in a cold weather, northeastern city with a blue chip franchise, chance to break Shul's record, chance to get to the Super Bowl. That to me is a hand and glove fit that I would strongly consider

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Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I had a very good gambling year. So I was 09 and 1 to start. From that point forward, 14 of 11. 16 weeks. I was 500 or better. I was 64%. 60. That's a really good year. So I had a very,

unbelievable. That's unbelievable. I had a great, great blazing fire. I had a guy come up to me yesterday in the grocery store. He's like, man, you were cooking this year. Let me buy you blankety blank. And I'm like, I'm good. This is my job. Don't worry about it. And he was like, he goes, Colin, I've been following you for a lot of years. He goes, man, he goes, you had a year about 10 years ago like this, which I remember. And I said, yeah. Well, the year, 10 years ago or whenever it was right before you came to Fox Sports, that was a year you might have been on the record the best handicapper in the country. That was a year with a blazing five would change lines a bit. That was a historic run. And then I didn't know, you know what's funny. And this is now

I'm going to sound like a bitter man. This is, you know, the modern media. There was a lot of publicity, you know, publicity about your first two weeks, not nearly as much about the following 16 a lot. Coward didn't have to hit a bat in two weeks, just getting roasted. Well, by the way. Meanwhile, just went two and three every fucking week. I had my worst year in forever. Just, and it was just the same thing, two and three, three and two every week.

Well, by the way, Harbaugh had a losing record in COVID. I had a shit COVID year. My takeaway was, folks, Sunday morning, they'd be like, oh, yeah, these eight starters don't play. It's like, that doesn't count. You got to, but you know what's funny. When the media, and I don't care, because I literally am not on my phone. Like, just not.

Once Elon Musk took it over, I gave him about two months. It's a mess. I'm just not on it. I used it for promotion for my podcast, for the volume. I'm not on it. But it is interesting that the blogosphere, which claims shows like our clickbait, went over the moon on my own nine and one start. Nothing in 16 weeks of red hot. Nothing.

Yeah. But go ahead. Sorry. Well, of course. But I mean, you want to hear, you want to hear my theory this year? Yeah. So what I did every weekend, and it didn't know his work. Like this weekend, I said, Justin Fields is not as good as Jordan Love, but Justin Fields with that atrocious Green Bay defense will look better than love against the good defense.

It didn't happen. That's what I thought too. Yep. But what I really started to do by week three, I said, you're overthinking the room. When you can get the best quarterback in value, just bet him. And I started just betting four to my five picks. I bet a lot of Kyler Murray. It's like, I bet some Tyrod Taylor.

I'm like, Tyrod Taylor against Philadelphia's defense is going to move the bull. He's averaging 360 yards against better defenses. And I already started coming down to almost like I picked divisions. Who will be the better quarterbacks in these games? And it's amazing how simple. Like, for instance, Texans Colts this weekend, wise guys love the Colts. And I'm like, folks, it's a win you're in game. C.J. Stroud's better.

I would take C.J. Stroud. I talked myself out of it because J. Mack and Millman And they're like, no. But in the end, I watched it. And I went, first play of the game last drive. It was won by CJ Stroud. Yeah, 100%. All right.

Last thing. I don't know what the, and I might have said this to you on TV today. I don't remember. So I apologize if I'm in reruns. I said it to someone today. I don't know who's going, what the division. No, I didn't say this to you. What the division around matchups are going.

to be. I know what the best ones would be. The ideal outcomes are the Rams beating the lions because then you get the Rams playing the Niners. And that's a real scare for the Niners. Yeah. That is a real legitimate scare. And I love C.J. Stroud. I love that story. If we assume the Bills and Chiefs are going to win, which I think they both will, and that is a great round two. Chiefs having to go to Buffalo for the first time. Everyone, I am, as America's most noteworthy, you know, Buffalo antagonist, I'm rooting for the bills. I want to see Chief's bills in Buffalo. Let's get Mahomes Allen. So let's assume that's it. As much I like C.J. Stroud, I'm rooting for the Browns. Because Browns Ravens is another one. That is a shitty first

game for Baltimore. It's like, wait a minute. We got to play the only quarterback in the conference with deep playoff experience other than Mahomes in a first game in a divisional matchup with that defense and their hot coming off a win. And then I don't really care who wins Eagles bucks because I think either team's drawing dead. But it's probably better if the Eagles win, you get Cowboys Eagles. But Niners Rams, Chiefs, Bills, Browns Ravens would be an unbelievable divisional round weekend as far as where you could make a credible case for any of those six teams in those matchups. And you could make a credible case for any of those teams making the Super Bowl.

Like, I think the Rams can make the Super Bowl. I'm not picking them to make the Super Bowl. But I think that it is, they've won seven of eight and the one losses to Baltimore and overtime. I mean, that's with Sean McVeigh and Matt Stafford, like, that's a real thing. And Baltimore's defense, I mean, sorry, Cleveland's defense, Baltimore, I don't know. I'm super excited. So that's what I'm hoping happens.

I don't know if it's what will happen. That's what I'm hoping. So it's interesting. I mentioned you at the end of the show today. I said, Nick Wright, two weeks in a row, said, you're going to bet the Rams over the lines. And I'm like, no, Contrera Monferre. That's not going to happen.

And today, I got my notepad out. Coach, quarterback, defense, Laporte is out. And I'm like, oh, shit. You got to take the Rams. You're going to take the Rams, certainly plus the points. I mean certainly with the points time out Dan Camel McVeigh that's a two and a half to three point advantage yeah Stafford golf two and a half to three points you have to take the points with the Rams you have to take the points you have to take the points with the Rams I I think that have to do is points with the

Rams I think that when the chiefs were did you see what the chief's line opened that two and a available one and it was available for 90 seconds. You know what I mean? Now four is a different story because, you know what I mean? Well, I think the dolphins might fold in the cold. The chiefs haven't blown anybody out in forever. You know what I mean? Like, that's not an obvious one.

I think the next best bet is Tampa getting points at home against an Eagles team that's falling apart. I don't think it's, I think the Kansas City, listen, you're going to. going to play poker when you're retired. I'm going to do a podcast a week with a volume and bet football. And so when you bet football professionally, I wouldn't be on the air. I would wait for the lines to come out and pounce on him. I would live in a state where I can gamble and I would just pounce. So, you know, like there are, the best lines of the week are always Sunday night, Monday. Those are the best lines always. Always. And the sharps jump on them. And I've always said if I hit 63% from weeks, you know, three to the end of the year, I'd hit 64 to 65%. But

if I could bet them if I did Blazing Five on Monday. I would get, it wouldn't be dramatically different, but you would get like six to seven games a year where you just get a team you like, because I lost several games. I pushed on like four games that the line just was, and I would say on the air Friday, this is not the best of the line, but I still like them.

But I will say is that these games are tough bets. I don't love any of them. I tend to think Philadelphia, I mean, I watched Baker last week. they were bad. I mean, that's true. And he's hurt. I mean, they scored nine points.

If you go look at this run, they got two wins over Carolina. Like that, that division is awful. That's true. That's true. So then if you take that out, the next one that I think is. I think Kansas City hosting a warm weather team that is depleted is a I would go up to four and a half. I think Kansas City, 28, 23. Kansas City healthy, which they are. Kansas City rested.

It's one thing for this Chief's team to not be the team that it was projected to be before the season, which is the Super Bowl favorite. It's another thing for them to fully healthy, lose a home wild card game. You know what I mean? The reason the line concerns me is even if I'm right that Kansas City controls the. game. Once you lay four, you're susceptible to being up 10 and that shitty backdoor cover at the end, you know what I mean? At the end that just guts you. I think the Cowboys are going to score 35 points on Green Bay. I do too. The question is can Green Bay score 30? That game feels like 33, 34 to 26. That's what it feels like. Right, right. The line is exactly right. That's the thing

Listen, the NFL in general, lines are never wrong. NFL playoffs. It's never like, oh my God, look at this bet. Like, no, I mean, that never is there. The only one is, I think the Rams are better than Detroit. I just flatly believe the Rams are better than Detroit. Well, they certainly have components. Without Leporta, it's, that's, Leporta is the rare tight end. I mean, Travis Kelsey has 16 touchdowns and 14 playoff games.

It matters. He's better in the playoffs. He also, Colin, is the NFL's all-time leader in playoff yards per game, not amongst tight ends, amongst everyone, amongst receivers with at least 10 games. He's the all-time leader in playoff yards per game. So, yeah, I mean, and Kelsey, listen, Kelsey hasn't been right all year. But I also think if you look at his snap count, if you look at things, the Chiefs have been, despite the fact that they've needed these games. They've blown some games. They have been, to my eye, a team that has been holding certain things.

They have not broken the glass. They clearly have not yet felt we are in full emergency because Kelsey hadn't played 90% of the snaps in any games. You've only seen Mahomes run a lot. And you saw it for the first time in the Bengals game, which was to lock up the division and be able to rest in week 18. I still think Kansas City has a gear, just like you saw Buffalo here this last few months, all of a sudden Josh Allen is running all the time.

And you know why? Because they have to win. And it's like that is always their most dangerous play. Right. But they don't do it because it's dangerous for them. They can get the guy hurt no matter how big he is. I think I'm always leery of teams that I think might have an extra gear. I think Kansas City might have an extra year, and I do, the Kansas City stat that jumps out to me, or two of them.

One is, they are this year, they have one loss when they either tie, if they don't lose the turnover battle. And that one loss was the first game of the year, and their turnover, by the way, was a pick six the other way off a bobbled pass. everybody talks about all these issues they have the sneaky problem for Can't City is top five most turnovers bottom five fewest force turnovers they have the third worst plus minus in football

every other team in that bottom 10 is some shit team that is drafting early like you can't overcome that typically the chiefs have so maybe that kills them you know what I mean maybe in the playoffs they keep turning the ball over that kills them but if they don't They don't lose. And do I trust them a little bit more come to the playoffs?

I do. And so I think Kansas City is super dangerous. And I think the Rams are super dangerous. And if the Rams, man, if the Rams beat San Francisco, that then means Dallas doesn't have to leave home the whole playoffs. Yeah. And so like they are sneaky. I thought one of the most important moments of the weekend was San Francisco. or the Rams beating San Francisco. Yeah.

Because that made the Rams the 16th instead of the seven. Yeah. Because I think the Rams could have gone to Dallas and caused some real problems for the same reason they can go to Detroit and cause problems. So I don't know. I mean, a very sneaky MVP is Matt Stafford. Not going to win it. He has been on fire for about nine weeks. And I mean, arm angles.

I mean, he has been. It's amazing. One of the reasons the NFL is so great, a baseball draft or an NBA draft, you have to be patient. Puganaku has changed the receiving core. They got a left tackle who's great, two defensive linemen who have been excellent as rookies. It's like, they got like four players who are impactful in the draft and Stafford's healthy. And it's like, yeah, their roster's suddenly really interesting. The Rams draft this year is the Chiefs draft last year. It's like, oh, you got four guys that are helping you right now. Yes. You know what I mean? Like four guys that are right now,

making a difference, not like, oh, they're going to be good. It's like, no, they are good right now. When that happens, it changes the math on your team. It significantly changes the math on your team. Sorry, I took too long here. No, no, no, no, an hour or twice. It was good. Listen, you sit in the snow.

I got 62 degrees. Yeah, exactly. A shrimp salad. A shrimp salad. Oh, my goodness. Tell your wonderful wife, I say hello. And I will, I hope to say, see you in Los Angeles again soon.

I got to find a way because I still believe the chiefs are going to go to the Super Bowl. I got to find a way to go to the Super Bowl when the Chiefs are there going for back-to-back. And if that happens, maybe I can do my show from Los Angeles and I'll get to see you. But it's always great to talk to you. I'll talk to you, son. I'd write that in pencil, not pen. Okay. All right.

I'll talk to you later. Bye. See you. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only. only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and, at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. This is an I-Heart podcast, Guaranteed Human.