The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Niners/Seahawks TNF, Purdy Good, Week 15 Sharp or Square

Episode Date: December 16, 2022

First, Colin reacts to the Niners TNF road win over the Seahawks, and another impressive performance by rookie 7th rounder Brock Purdy. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 15 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Rams/Packers (13:00),Cowboys/Jags (14:00), Titans/Chargers (19:00), Patriots/Raiders (21:00),Giants/Commanders (22:00), Eagles/Bears (23:00) Dolphins/Bills (25:00), and Colts/Vikings (26:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

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Same game parlayers are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandul app today. All right, a little instant reaction as the Niners hold on to beat the Seahawks on Thursday night football. It looked a lot like all these 49er wins this year, right? An unblockable defensive line. Take a lead somewhere first half and then kind of grind it out. Christian McCaffrey carries, eat the clock. So let's talk a little about Brock Purdy.

The offense is pretty much the same, with the exception they can move the pocket more because of Brock Purdy's feet. You know, if you look at San Francisco, half the league is undrafted. So just take the Niners as you look at Brock Pretty being the final player taken in the seventh round. Well, two of his targets, George Kittle was drafted in the fifth round out of Iowa. George Kittle was a late bloomer. Do you realize he only had 48 catches total at Iowa? He didn't have 800 yards receiving at Iowa, a program that puts out a lot of talented tight ends.

Juan Jennings, a wider receiver for the Niners. He was a seventh round pick. So, you know, there's so many good skill players now. So many guys can catch the ball, run. the NFL is furnished about 25 good receivers a year out of college football. So it's not shocking. Again, Ryan Fitzpatrick was a seventh round quarterback and threw for 35,000 yards, and is now on the Amazon broadcast.

And it's interesting if you look at Brock Purdy. So we went to high school in Arizona. He ended up being the Gatorade Player of the Year in the state of Arizona. So, you know, if you're a Gatorade Player of the Year, in the state I grew up in Washington State. You usually end up going and starting and being a star at college. And oftentimes, Brock Heward's a prime example. You go play in the NFL.

He was in Puyallup High School. He's now at Fox, former Husky and Colt quarterback. So Brock Purdy was the Gatorade Player of the Year. That's his final year in Arizona. But he started as a sophomore in high school in a really tough division. And then he goes to Iowa State and he ends up playing seven or eight games as a freshman. And here he is as a rookie playing. So what do we get high school college and pro?

Brock Purdy is a guy that steps right in with a lot of confidence, self-awareness. He obviously is a bright kid. He learns the playbook quickly. So, you know, he starts as a sophomore in high school, a freshman in college and now a rookie in the NFL. And remember, they were very comfortable when, Tray Lance got hurt and they moved Garoppolo in, they were very comfortable, Brock Prudy being the number two. There was no doubt about it. He'd played in the preseason and they liked him. So it's just, I think sometimes you look at the final round, the seventh round, and the NFL, and there's players everywhere

in this league. So why didn't, you know, Brock Prudy get drafted higher? He's not huge. He's about 6-1, 21-21, 6-1-1-5. That's on the small side for a pocket quarterback. Also played in the Big 12 where a lot of quarterbacks have failed. And, you know, you get run-and-shoot scores. You get, you know, 54, 45 in the conference. So there's a lot of offense. And therefore, in the NFL, there's a little bit, you know, before Patrick Mahomes

and that run of Heisman winners at Oklahoma, there was a real feel. You know, Big 12 football quarterbacks were, you know, busts high scoring, no defense in the conference. Sage Rosenfeld's is a former NFL quarterback who played at Iowa State. You know, Brock Pretty was a really, really, really strong college quarterback. I mean, think about this. He was all Big 12 in that wild conference where there's a lot of points. He was all Big 12 twice. and then he was second team all Big 12 as a sophomore.

So this is the Gatorade player of the year in Arizona, two time, actually a three-time, first or second team all-conference college guy who Alabama had in for a visit. It's a really talented guy. But, you know, a little on the small side. And also, he can be a little streaky. I went and looked at his scouting profile from Lance Zerline,

a guy I respect, whose dad was a coach in the NFL for years and he's a sportscaster in Houston and does some stuff for, I think, the NFL network. And that was the knock on Brock Purdy. He could be a little bit streaky. He can get out of rhythm, a little squirly, high completion percentage. I'm not shocked by it.

When I watched them in the preseason, I thought, it's pretty good. I'll say it again. He's Taylor Heineke, but more accurate. And Taylor Heineke is winning games for the Washington commanders. We also have a culture now. where there's just more quarterbacks who can play. High school, college, and pro.

This is not 1998. It's not 2008. The game now is absolutely offensive. You can go to a high school football game where I live in Southern California. You got teams throwing it 45 times a game. All right in these big leagues. So good for Brock Purdy. And I think the Niners feel like to me,

maybe the only other team in the NFC, very capable of going to Philadelphia and playing the Eagles and sitting in the center of the ring and exchanging blows. I think they're that good. And I think they're basically more athletic than they were with Jimmy Garoppolo. Let's talk about the Seahawks. Regression to the bean. You know, whenever I get too hot with my blazing five picks,

I'll eventually go one for four. I think Gino Smith, Seattle has two first round picks. They have Denver's. So right now it's the second or the third pick. I think it's the third. you're going to take a quarterback. Bryce Young is probably not available. Houston with the number one pick will probably take Bryce Young.

So you can take CJ Stroud out of Ohio State. I don't know. I've seen them lose twice to Michigan. I don't know. Or Will Levis from Kentucky, who got a real arm. Sean Payton told me of all the quarterbacks, he thought he was really, really interesting. Will Levis.

So, you know, his college stats don't blow you away. but kid that can really spin it. And, you know, Seattle's got a few other needs. Interior defensive line. Interior offensive line. I still think they need another receiver, another back behind Kenneth Walker. A few more bigs on the defensive front. But Gino Smith is, as we've talked about Tua,

there was no real history as a guy who's a bust and then goes on to be a Pro Bowl quarterback. That kind of stuff just doesn't happen. in the NFL. And so now we're post Thanksgiving. Weather's colder. Guys get banged up. People have more film. And you're kind of getting on Gino Smith what you think. He's a big guy who can, he's got a good arm. He really does. He has a really, really nice arm. You can certainly win games with him. But we all know when you start looking at Vegas odds, who's going to win the Super Bowl. It's the same thing with Tua. Now it gets cold. Now it gets windy. Now you don't have all your receivers. Now your left tackle is out. That's when Joe Burrow wins and Mahomes wins and Herbert wins.

And Tua and Gino Smith, you know, things level out. The one thing I will say about Seattle is that, you know, Pete Carroll I often refer to him as, you know, like he's a 70-year-old head coach. His energy is like nothing I've ever seen. I don't know really how to explain Pete Carroll. He wears that gum out. he's got a lot of power in that organization. I don't see him going anywhere. And I think Seattle's going to be too good for the next several years, too competitive.

They're not going to get in the top five at quarterback again. So even if they need interior defensive linemen, this draft has a lot in the top 10, top 12. They're going to have to take a quarterback. They're not going to be in that top two, three spot again. And so my guess, it's going to be Will Levis or C.J. for Seattle, I would take Levis from Kentucky. San Francisco. If Brock Purdy hoists the Lombardi trophy, I know it sounds ridiculous.

But doesn't this kind of sound ridiculous? Think about this. Jalen Hertz, who basically had to leave Alabama because the greatest college football coach of all time Nick Saban said, yeah, it's not working here. Goes to Oklahoma, second in the Heisman, second round pick for Philadelphia. they've already got, you know, like Carson Wentz. And all of a sudden, not long after that, Jalen Hertz, who had to transfer in college,

who we thought was a runner over a thrower, is starting for the Eagles, gets him to the playoffs in year two, and then in year three is up for MVP. That sounds totally improbable. So that's who Brock Purdy could eventually be playing in the NFC championship in Philadelphia. And I think it's a go-either-way game.

It'll probably be a low-scoring, highly physical, wild game. Debo Samuel, back by that time. You know, that's a 2017 game either way. Don't count it out. Let's welcome in Chad Millman's CCO Action Network, all of our odds provided by a fan duel. So it's a weird week. I've shifted some bets.

I don't like favorites much. but I'm going to start with two because I don't like them. Monday night football. Everybody loves Baker Mayfield. Packers get a little extra rest. Minus six and a half. It's a much better team. Let's not kid ourselves.

The Rams aren't good. This feels like Packers by a touchdown, Sharper Square. I got to tell you, this one is really interesting. Not a ton of activity on this game in conversation from a sharp perspective. I think you're on the right side at less than a touchdown. There's too much enthusiasm from the market when you were looking at a Baker Mayfield quarterback team. This is not a guy who wins games, right? We've seen that over and over again.

I think with the Packers, obviously there's a lot of trepidation here. But like the numbers on this one, the Rams getting. the majority of the tickets, and that's why you've seen it come down a little bit. The money's heading in the Packers direction. So if you can get them at six and a half, I would take it. Here's another one. I bet against the Jaguars earlier this year off a big win. They're a young team.

They come home. They see the Cowboys in their sights off one of their best games in a decade. Dallas humiliated but won against Houston. Cowboys are getting healthier. It's one of those middle numbers, like a five. In that case, I just think Dallas is a significantly better team. Sharper Square, I'm taking the Cowboys. Oh, my God.

You're living in the middle of the square. Like, you don't even have any sort of room to wiggle on this one. Trevor Lawrence, past nine weeks, past six weeks, top two quarterback in the NFL. according to pro football focus. Ten touchdowns, zero picks. All these early season issues he had in the red zone, throwing passes that were too flat, didn't have any touch,

not building chemistry with Doug Peterson. They've been a very good team in the past few weeks. We've seen that. We've seen them getting better. I'm not phased by sort of the blowout of the Titans on the road, especially against the Cowboys Pass Rush. That is the strength of their deep.

defense, but it's also the strength of the Jags offensive line. They are fifth in protecting Trevor Lawrence against the pass rush in the NFL. And the other thing I'll say is that the Cowboys secondary, they are injured. And that's one of the reasons why they struggled against the Texans. So Trevor Lawrence, who's becoming a better quarterback, is going to have a good opportunity to light them up. Most professional betters have this game power rated at three. Listen, these days, every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business, right? The margins have never been tighter. You want to be 100% certain you have access to the best qualified candidates and fast.

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Go there right now. Post your job for free. LinkedIn.com slash Colin. LinkedIn. dot com slash Colin. Terms and conditions apply. Imagine an Olympics

where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes

for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fanduil America's number one sports book.

Right now, new customers get a no-sweat, first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin. FanDuel has tons of betting options. I like the same game parlay. Bet a little, win a lot. Fandul's app is safe, secure, easy to use, and you get paid your winnings really fast. The no sweat first bet up to $1,000, promo code Colin, make every moment more this season with Fandul, official sports book partner of the National Football League.

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Jersey and Virginia. 1877-7-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. 1877 H-H-E-N-Y or text H-O-P-E-E-N-E-N-E-S-S-S-S-S-S-7-3-6-6-9-6-9 in New York, Tennessee, redline. 1,800-89-9, Tennessee, visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, let's go to the underdogs. Titans getting three at the Chargers. Tennessee off a humiliating loss.

Yes, they're banged up. But again, let's not go crazy with the Chargers. Their defense set the tone against Miami. Titans have the better defense, the better coach, the better run game consistently, can stop the run. I like Tennessee and the point sharper square. Total number game, very sharp. If this gets to two and a half, you're going to see people come in on the Chargers.

Right now, at three, majority of the money coming in on the Titans, the Chargers are not a team that anybody wants to play when they're favorites. They are great as an underdog because their variance plays to wide sort of disparities and what you can expect. And they do things that allow you as a better on an Underdog Chargers team to stay in the game. Meanwhile, as favorites, they're just not very good. The Titans, however, as underdogs with Mike Vrable, are very good. You've got a coaching advantage with the Titans.

You've got them in a spot that favors them. And then with the Chargers, you kind of don't know what you're getting yet defensively. Joey Bosa is supposed to come back. But this has been a team that is at a hard time as a defense. So it's very hard to bet on them as a favorite. Patriots Raiders, I like New England comfortably. I think although Belichick's former coaches do okay against him, this sort of ball control offense by New England on display against Arizona,

I still think the Raiders are a team that plays really hard, but there are some holes they can't overcome. And Belichick, this is what he does. if you've got holes, he'll find them. I think it's a boring, quick game with a lot of run involved. I'm talking 80 carries. But if it's a pick-um or close, which is where the numbers at, Raiders minus one. I take the Patriots to win here, Sharper Square.

As square as Square gets, the wise guys love the Raiders in this spot. The Patriots have terrible skill players on offense. as it is. And now the players that they were depending on are injured. Damian Harris, Ramandre Stevenson, Devante Parker. We don't know what we're getting in that group. The wise guys make the Raiders two-point favorites. So when this game opened at Raiders plus one and a half, the wise guys started hammering it. It's why the line has moved in the direction that it has. It's a team that, as you noted, still plays hard. They are probably getting Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller back, both of them practiced this week. They can still make the playoffs. They're in every game. The Raiders at home

it basically pick a very short favorite by the time the game kicks off. That's going to be the wise guy said. Giants getting four and a half against the commanders. I had Taylor Heinecke on my show today, but if you look at his numbers, they're underwhelming. This is a Washington team that has more talent than New York, four and a half is a ton of points. Daniel Jones playing for his career. I'm going to go with the points, Giants, division rival, Sharper Square. Interesting game. The sharp side is definitely the Giants. There's no reason the commanders should be four and a half point favorites.

They just played two weeks ago. While the commanders are on the buy, the Giants in that game, even though it was a tie game, terribly ugly game. The Giants were ahead by a touchdown for most of the second half, and they missed a game-winning field goal. So now there's automatically inflation when a team like the Giants is coming off of a blowout loss, right? So that's why the number drifted up to four and a half. Nobody saw the commanders play terribly last week. They didn't play.

Meanwhile, teams coming off a blowout the past 20 years. So the Giants in this spot, they're covering at a 55% clip. This is Washington's biggest spread of the season against the team that was beating them two weeks ago. it's the sharp side but I will tell you I've had a couple guys say to me they love the commanders that are professional betters we talked about this on the favorites pod today I'm not saying you're wrong I'm just saying it's not always a consensus so be wary bears plus nine extra rest Philadelphia coming off a dominating win I always pull back the world likes right now the eagles I think they're in a position.

They could rest players getting healthy. Chicago, again, people playing for their jobs, people putting stuff on tape, young offensive line. I like the bears and the points here to keep it reasonably close, Sharper Square. Totally sharp. And remember we talked about this two weeks ago, the Rams,

eight and a half point underdogs against Seattle. Last week, the Broncos, nine point underdogs. the Broncos nine point underdogs against the chiefs. Same similar scenario here. The Bears plus nine against a high flying Eagles team. Huge amount of money on the Bears. This is exactly the side that the professionals want to be on a reminder. And I said this last week because it's still relevant, even more relevant.

When you get teams winning at a 65% clip over the course of the year playing against really bad teams like the Bears, the Delta we're talking about between the Eagles and the Bears this week. The dogs are covering at nearly 60%. So that's what happens when you get late in the year. You get inflation on these teams that are really good. All right. We always close with a game I could be talked into. I think Buffalo and bad weather could destroy the dolphins. What say you? Sharper Square. Tell me the side. I agree with you. The number has moved to seven. But there's not a ton of wise guy activity on this game because people are waiting to see how bad the weather really is. And I'll be honest with you, the side they're probably going to play in this game is the over

in totals, not necessarily taking the bills minus seven. I think they like the bills because the bills when they do win, they tend to cover big. And I think, and we talked about this a few weeks ago. If you were going to fade any team down the stretch, it was going to be Miami who three weeks ago, they had come off six straight really easy games at home or indoors, and they were heading into the end of the year where they were going to be on the road in really tough spots, including this game. So wise guys probably will bet the bills minus seven, but they love the over in this game because the snow tends to play to the offensive strength. Finally, a game I missed. Colts Vikings. How do we not talk about Colts Vikings? Oh, God. Come on. Come on. This is a great

bounce back spot for the Colts. When they've gotten killed this year, as they did two weeks ago, they've come back in one. Minnesota's defense is terrible. Forced two punts against the Lions, the week before, they gave up nearly 500 yards to the Jets. The Colts are actually outgaining their opponents. Minnesota is getting outgained by its opponents in our luck rankings that we do on Action Network.com, which basically are the best way to measure expected regression. So a team that is playing way outside of itself and is expected to come back down to Earth, a team playing a little bit below expectations should be playing better. There's the biggest delta of the week in this game.

Take the Colts. Every wise guy has taken the Colts. All right, you talk me into it. That's a good point. All right, buddy, good stuff. Appreciate it. I'm here for you. Make sure to check out the Dremont Green show.

I brought Dremont Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, Embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed Human.