The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - OBJ to Cowboys + Judge to Dodgers Cases, Week 10  ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

First, Colin explains why the Cowboys should roll the dice and sign OBJ, why the Dodgers should do whatever it takes to steal Aaron Judge from the Yankees, and which stats show Kyrie isn't worth it on the court for the Nets. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 8 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Seahawks/Bucs (17:00), Lions/Bears (19:00), Vikings/Bills (21:00), Chargers/Niners (23:00), Saints/Steelers (25:00), Cowboys/Packers (26:00), and Jags/Chiefs (28:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

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Hi, everybody. Welcome in Friday morning. Time to play sharper square in 10 minutes with Chad Millman. So I was thinking about this with OBJ and the Cowboys, which I talked about this week. A perfect illustration of why the Cowboys should go for it with OBJ is Matt Stafford in the Rams. So Matt Stafford is on the most. market. He said he was unhappy. And three or four or six or seven teams make a run at him. And the Rams land him. Okay. But even with Stafford, he had some hot and cold Sundays. So they go and make a move

for OBJ in season. They make a move for Vaughn Miller in season. And those two were key essential pieces. No question. Because they're both gone now and the Rams aren't the same team. They were essential to win a Super Bowl. So think about that. Even if the Rams acquired Matt Stafford, had they not also aggressively landed Von Miller and OBJ? This morning, they're a team without a Super Bowl and a quarterback in Stafford that had a bad year

and is entering concussion protocol. That would be no better than Jared Gough. In fact, Gough at least stayed mostly healthy. So the Rams, there's no point in going almost all in. Stafford is going almost all in. But they identified they needed more juice beyond Cooper Cup and Van Jefferson. They identified Aaron Donald with double teams. Let's add an edge rusher.

So you don't do those moves. You got Stafford who's all banged up, having a disappointing season, and you still don't have first round picks. So the Cowboys are close. This is something the Packers have always thought they're good enough. That's why they have won Super Bowl with Aaron Rogers. The Cowboys are good enough to win playoff games. I think they're probably good enough to win two.

But remember, they're a wild card team. That's what they're going to be as of today. You go on that road, just need some extra. juice. And, you know, this is a team that has been historically pretty aggressive, trades, acquisitions, free agent market, maybe all started by Jerry Jones. But if Phillies makes a move, they did, Minnesota makes a move they did, Niners make a move, Buffalo makes a move, Kansas City makes a move. If you truly believe you're in that class, those teams, Buffalo's favored to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City's favored. Philadelphia's favored.

to win the NFC today on the betting markets. And they're still making moves. So the Rams are a great example that people thought Stafford's going all in. No, Stafford gets you right on the door. It was Vaughn Miller and OBJ that is all in. Dallas has to spend whatever it takes to get OBJ. He is just the kind of player that can make a handful of plays,

just a handful, to win you that second. or third playoff game. You know, I don't talk a lot of baseball in the offseason, but I think the Aaron Judge market is fascinating. It's down to the Yankees, Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants. And something I've noticed in my profession, radio, podcasting, television, and you see it in movies, that there's a reason, like Disney now wants to make eight to ten movies a year.

either they make a billion or we're not interested in making the movie. There's only a handful of players, non-pitchers in baseball, that can actually lead you on winning streaks, lead you to playoff wins. Bryce Harper, we saw it in Philadelphia. He led them to the World Series. Now, in the end, the great pitching, Houston beats great hitting Philadelphia. But what you're seeing all over these platforms, forms. The top 1% pay whatever it takes. Everything else floats. Everything else is movable.

Everything else is transactional. The Dodgers draw over 10,000 more fans per game than the second best drawing team in Major League Baseball. That probably gains them 81 games, 75, 80 bucks per person into Dodger stadium, $10,000 on average more a night, about $8 million a year, maybe $10 depending on beer prices, parking, $10 million a year. That's Aaron Judge money. You just add that over the course of four or five years. That number is going to go up. So the Dodgers led baseball last year in attendance by $10,000 per game, probably 12 to $13,000

per game better than second place with Aaron Judge. He's the kind of guy that's going to get people to a stadium on Monday, Tuesday. Wednesday, Thursday night. Friday night, Saturday night for the Dodgers, those crowds are always great. When Arod went to the Yankees, I remember hearing a Yankee executive talk about this. He put people in the stands on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night.

Aaron Judge has a Paul Bunyan quality. There's nobody like him in the sport. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, really great players. But baseball has like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge. That's it in terms of putting butts in seats during the week. You have to go for it.

These big movie studios now, you make us a billion or we're moving off you. Yeah, the independent film, actors, raise your own funds. Big Boy Studios aren't paying for that. So there's an interesting app called StatMuse. And they have sort of a cartoon drawing of people, and they give you really interesting stats. And one of them the other day, I look at it every day. I like data.

I like numbers. And it was really interesting. Regardless of your opinion on Kyrie Irving, and I have a very low opinion of him, I said last year multiple times, he's the only star I can ever remember in my life that I would trade for rotational pieces. I think he's a coach killer, a culture killer. But it's interesting. If you look at the Brooklyn Nets this season, according to Stat Mews, in the eight games with Kyrie, they won two times and had the 29th best defense. In the four games without him, they had three wins and were first in defense.

And by the way, with him, 18th in offense, without him, seventh in offense. It's interesting, right? We view him as such a magical offensive presence. But one of the things that's always been really off-putting to me about Kyrie, he's not a good distributor. Steph Curry is, Chris Paul is, is that Kyrie is that guy we've all played with at the YMCA. you give it to him on the wing and you never get the ball back. Is that Kyrie, to me, is not a winning player.

He's just a really gifted player. And, you know, if you told me I get Kyrie or Westbrook as a player, I'd take Kyrie because it's more of a shooter's league. But Kyrie is so poor defensively, and his assist totals are so low. This has been one of my knocks on Kauai Leonard. Kauai Leonard gets you a bucket and gets you a stop. but he's not readily available to play. He doesn't elevate others.

He doesn't pass the ball. And I think the greatest gift that LeBron has ever given us is his ability to elevate everybody he's ever played with. Kyrie, and the stat news has it right, Kyrie elevates Kyrie. Kevin Durant gives you an effort on the defense event. Kevin Durant, willing to distribute. Kevin Durant, a great closer.

But the difference between Kevin Durant and Kyrie isn't just they're both offensively gifted or the size. It's just to make the NBA, even defensive specialists in college to the NBA can score. Bruce Bowen was a good college score. You can't give up 26 on the defensive end. And Stapmuse, it's a very interesting site that Brooklyn is better offensively and significantly better. defensively when Kyrie's not on the floor. We fall in love with talent in basketball. You know, in football, we don't.

We just fall in love with wins. Like if a player doesn't help you win, fans don't want him. Media doesn't want him. Coaches don't want him. But there is this sort of mythology with Kyrie is that, boy, Kyrie's a winning player. He's really a losing player who's really talented.

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and Colorado, Indiana, Indiana, 7-7-70 stop in Louisiana. 1-800-2707-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but in encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. All right, time for sharp or square with Chad Millman. All odds provided by Fandul.

I had a losing week. Two pushes. One win. Two losses. I went with all underdogs. I like underdogs again. I'll give you my favorite picks of the week. I have two favorites and a lot of dogs.

I think my favorite pick of the week is Seattle plus two and a half and here's why. Brady has been awful in Tampa when he plays an awful. off-schedule games. Very much a creature of habit. Seattle is a young team. Young teams travel well, playing great defensively. Defenses travel well with a great run game. Run games travel well. I like Seattle to win. I don't think Vegas has figured out Seattle yet. They had Arizona twice as favorites over them. I watched eight quarters. Seattle was significantly better in seven of eight quarters. I think Seattle may blow out the Buccaneer sharper square. Totally a sharp play. This line opened at three. It's moved to two and a half. It's a neutral

field game. Professional betters basically think this should be pick-em. There should not be sort of the cardiac inflation that is coming Tom Brady's way because of how he won against the Rams last week, which everybody is seeing. If you look at the Seahawks, they are fourth overall in DVOA. Their offense is fourth in DVOA. The last five weeks, their defense is fourth in DVOA. DVOA, for those who don't know, just a very fancy way of combining all the metrics that matter to betters and putting them in one specific metric. What's really interesting about the Seattle team is they're on this long winning streak, right? The two games they've lost over the past seven weeks. Atlanta, New Orleans, those were in the final minutes of the game. This is a team that is very good.

it is very fundamentally sound, like you said, great defense, incredible running game now with Kenneth Walker. The challenge that everyone is thinking about is, have we reached peak Seahawks? When you're in the business of investing, you want to get out of the market before it peaks. Is this the peak of the market for the Seahawks? I don't think so. The wise guys don't think so. But start looking for that if those Seahawks do actually cover or win this game. All right. My second favorite, favorite pick of the week, Bears minus three at home. Here's why. The splits are obvious. Jared Goff, comfortable in a dome, has been very effective. Jared Goff, discomfort on the road, awful. Chicago has found the magic sauce with Justin Fields over the last three to four games.

I think Chicago wins handily. They've got some momentum. I think there's real belief in the building. Coaching staff through the roster in Justin Fields. I don't think God. has that. I think you're going to see some lions start bailing here fairly quickly with a couple more losses. I like Chicago comfortably, even though they're a favorite minus three, sharper square. Totally the right side. Wise guys don't love it, mainly because they feel like this is a public play right now. And if you look at the splits, about 85% of the tickets are coming in on the bears. But look, there are some spots where you can get this game at two and a half. And if you can find a two and a half, take it. still like it at three. The Bears' rushing offense is dominant. And I don't just mean in the number of yards they are gaining game to game. I mean in every category that gamblers care about. Yards per carry.

Explosive plays of 20 plus yards. Explosive plays of 40 plus yards. First downs by the run. Touchdowns by the run. And what that means is that on first and second downs, they are moving the ball and not putting Justin Fields in bad situations. But you mentioned the play calling. The last three weeks, Justin Fields has has 21 design runs. In the first 16 games he started, he had 26 the last few weeks against the Blitz. 23

of 28 for more of the 200 yards, five touchdowns, only three sacks. Justin Fields is getting better. They're calling better plays for him. They're putting him in a better position to succeed. And by the way, those rush stats I mentioned for the Bears, the Lions defense, bottom two in the category of every

single one of those categories. So the Bears short home favorites, you take depending on the line all of our odds presented by a fan duel i would take the vikings plus four and a half as they transition in buffalo probably to a backup um this offense is completely josh allen reliant they have no running game and they won't have the deep ball because the viking's pass rush like the jets will get to that five-step drop quarterback spot. T.J. Hawkinson is a much bigger addition than people think. This is not a prime time game, or I'd stay away from it with Kirk Cousins. It's an early game. It's your one o'clock East Coast game.

This is a team now. Kirk tends to be a little bit of a checkdown guy. Remember, he's had, you know, Stefan Diggs complained that he wasn't getting the ball enough. You give him a great tight end. He had nine catches the first time Kirk had T.J. Hawkinson. This is going to be a huge, huge. If you play fantasy football and I don't, this kid's going to get eight to ten catches a week. I'm going to take the points in Minnesota Sharper Square. Yeah, of course you're going to take the points here. I would say that the more it moves down, this gets to three and a half or three by Sunday, you kind of want to pass on this game. Josh Allen, you mentioned him, accounts for 81 percent. of the offense for the Buffalo Dills.

They do not have a running game. The challenge with the Vikings, they have been outplayed by every single opponent. They're one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. It happened again this past weekend against the commanders. And they didn't cover, by the way, the spread in that open at three and a half, I was telling everybody, take the commanders to three and a half.

The Vikings get lucky in every game. Is this the week where they can actually outplay someone because Josh Allen will either be hurt and not playing or be hurt and limited. You take the Vikings right now, but it's a scarier play. It's not one of the five I would play. So here's a favorite, a big favorite, and I like them. The most concerning part about Brandon Staley is this. His side of the ball has gotten worse.

There are reports that he's losing veteran players. Justin Herbert now is regressing. The Niners healthier with extra time at home. Run the ball. The Chargers are dreadful against the run. Herbert's going to watch the game. He's barely going to be on the field. With McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell,

I think this is a time of possession nightmare for the Chargers. I'm going to take San Francisco minus 7 at home, Sharper Square. So it's interesting, right? As you know, me and my BFF, Simon Hunter, we have a segment on the Favorites podcast on the Volume Podcast Network where we will get professional betters that call us. We'll do the podcast twice a week on Tuesday and on Thursday. On Wednesday, we get calls from professional betters to give us feedback on the games that

we had talked about on Tuesday that we then can talk about in the podcast on Thursday. number one conversation point was the Niners Chargers. Because Simon and I liked the Chargers at plus seven. The wise guys have come in on the Niners for a pretty significant amount of money. So you're right here. I disagree. I think because of the time of possession you just mentioned, I think that seven points with a team like the Chargers in which decisions,

making yields such high variance, you never know if they're going to be able to backdoor cover. And it's too big of a number to put yourself out there on the Niners at minus seven when they're going to mainly want to run the ball with Debo Samuel back and now Christian McCaffrey. So you're on the right side. Personally, it gives me a little bit of the hebie-jeebies. Finally, Steelers plus one and a half, Mike Tomlin, desperation, Kenny Pickett, I think for rookie quarterback's extra time is essential. Tomlin's a great underdog coach. Saints, bad loss, short time. They're a mess at quarterback. None of it's working. Steeders feels like one of the

more obvious plays of the week, Sharper Square. Totally sharp. This game opened at three. It's down to one and a half. Mike Tomlin is optimistic that TJ Watt is going to come back this week. This team, this defense is top five defense when T.J. Watt is playing. It's a yard per play better as a defense when T.J. Watt is playing. Then you talk about Kenny Pickett. Look, he came in against the Jets, nearly won them that game. That performance looks a lot better now thinking about how good the Jets are. Then he held it close against Miami. He beat Tom Brady in the Buccaneers. He's had two weeks to get into the offense, has a buy week, very enthusiastic about Kenny Pickett. He just looks like a gamer, right? He is not

afraid. He's going to find ways to get out of the pocket. They're going to put him in a better position than they have been. But also, this is a Mike Tomlin rah-rah spot. Through his career, after week five, he is 71% against the spread when he is an underdog. All right? This is when you play Mike Tomlin. Love it. Okay, we always close with two. First, a game, I'm not betting. You could talk me into it. My gut feeling is, you told me that five line is, it's a nowhere, man's land line. Five doesn't mean anything. So my takeaway is, okay, I'm just going to take the team. I think it's going to win. I would take Dallas over Green Bay. If it was a three, if it's a seven, it changes everything. It's a five. It doesn't matter. I think Dallas is much better.

Where would you go on this? Green Bay. Wise guys love Green Bay. If this game were three, it would be lined right. But there's about two points of value. Green Bay is very, very unlucky this season. And they are, they are suffering in the red zone and they are suffering on fourth downs. Every other category, they're an average team. It's highlighted because they don't have a lot of players, because players keep getting hurt, because Aaron Rogers, everyone thinks he's burnt and all these kinds of things. But they're still in a very average team. And the way this game is being handicapped right now, the odds makers are saying they think the cowboys are the same team when healthy as the Buffalo Bills. Because remember,

but the bills just played the Packers about two weeks ago. They beat them by 10 points. The way the lines are matching up, they're essentially the same. The Cowboys are favored by the same as the bills were against the Packers when they were playing in Buffalo, right? So what you're getting is a team that is inflated because they're playing against a Packers team that is undergoing so much controversy. So the Wise guys are going to be all over the Packers. I am all over the Packers. finally a game you're betting that I missed on it's so gross

it you're gonna look at me and be like why do I even listen to you why do I have you on the show you is it Broncos wise guys love the Broncos this line has moved from three to two and a half I will be betting on the Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars plus nine and a half against the Kansas City. Chiefs. Come on. Come on, Colin. Listen to me. Listen to me. The Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, in this situation, 12 and 17 is more than a touchdown favorite against a spread in his career. This season, at home, they barely beat the Raiders. They barely beat the Chargers. They barely beat the Titans with Malik Willis, not even throwing, not even throwing any to any wide receivers.

They lost to the bills. The Jags have been good all season. They, like the Packers, like other teams, have had very bad luck in the worst possible spots. I think they found a little bit of a success last week with Travis Ateen. They are starting to figure out who they are. Doug Peterson has said, we need to get Christian Croke the ball more. When they were really successful early in the year, they were doing it nine, ten times a day. Again, they went away from that.

And then they went back to it last week. He had nine targets, eight catches. I expect more of the same. Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars as heavy underdogs against the Chiefs. God, nine and a half points. It's a lot. Do it.

I don't, you know, I'll say this, though. I don't mind watching the Jags because I'm into Trevor Lawrence and they've got a nice offense. I don't mind watching them. Fun team. They're not Houston. Fun team.

They're not indie. All right. Sharper Square, Chad Millman appears to be at some fancy resort in the southwest part of the country. Not just that. You know what I just did? I'm co-opting a meeting room right now.

There's a conference going on. Nobody was in it. I wanted some quiet time for my time with you. Someone just opened the door. I think they own the conference room right now. I gave them one of these one finger and said, give me a minute. Yeah, big things going on here.

I'm talking to my friend Colin. Give me some time. All right, buddy. Good seeing you. See you, pal. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green show. I brought Dremont Green into the volume because one of the more

entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.