The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Baker’s Rams Arrival, Joe Montana and Joe Burrow on Similarities, Clutch Mindset + Week 14 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 10, 2022

This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Colin explains why Baker Mayfield leading a 98-yard final drive in his Rams debut to beat the Raiders was the most impressive win of his career. Then, Bengals Quarterback Joe Burrow and 4-time Super Bowl Champ Joe Montana discuss their similarities, what separates them in high pressure moments, how he would have handled playing the social media era, the similarities between Jerry Rice and Ja’Marr Chase, and how they're joining forces with Guinness to help serve local communities across the country. Then, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 14 picks are "sharp" or "square" for Dolphins/Chargers, Browns/Bengals, Panthers/Seahawks, Vikings/Lions , Jets/Bills, Jags/Titans, and Chiefs/Broncos. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action, and visit Cuts for the latest Fall fits!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-I-N. Fandul Sportsbook app, sign up. This is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward podcast. Two Cool Joe's, Joe Burrow and Joe Montana, Clutch DNA, Big Time number one wide receiver. What makes them so similar? Also, Chad Millman Action Network, Sharper, Square Week 14, but first my top takes of the week.

I was absolutely rooting for Baker Mayfield to drive at 98 yards for a winning touchdown. I'm in the story business. It's a great story. And, you know, everybody knows my history with Baker Mayfield. I think that's, honestly, the most impressive win of his career, and I'm dead serious. He won a playoff game. go back and look at that Cleveland roster. The O-line was like number two in the league, Nick Chubb, David Injoku, good receivers,

Miles Garrett. That was a really, really good roster. And they beat kind of an old Big Ben, you know, kind of a wobbly Steeler team. This was impressive. Ben Scoronic was his go-to receiver tonight, a second-year pro who was fourth or fifth on the depth chart.

Missing multiple offensive linemen. That's impressive. To walk into a city. New playbook, new coach, new system, new teammates. I mean, nobody really knows Baker. Fist bumped a few guys. I mean, Kirk Hurstreet said, I've been in town. He goes, I got here Tuesday for a speaking engagement.

I've been in town longer than Baker Mayfield. to walk in and kind of, you could tell throughout the course of the game, Baker Mayfield was just getting the information from Sean McVeigh and instantly relaying it to his team. And I imagine as Baker moved to the line of scrimmage, McVe was telling him kind of what the play was going to precisely look like. Raiders had, because of Max Crosby, a decent pass rush. It's not a great defense.

but that loss, even by Raiders standards, worst of the year for them. They're now probably on the outside looking in for the playoffs because they end the year with the Niners and the Chiefs. So they really, really needed this win. But that was really impressive by Baker Mayfield. The other thing is you don't really, I mean, what makes sports is the stories. I mean, everybody loves their home team. and everybody dislikes the rival to the home team.

But the reason we watch games beyond our favorite team or the team we grew up with is the drama, the chance for upsets. I mean, the Raiders were hot, the Raiders were healthier, the fact the Raiders could not pick up a first down on third and one, you don't deserve to be a playoff team. You don't deserve to win that game. But what made tonight special for Baker is,

great story. A lot of his faults and problems are his. I mean, let's be honest. He couldn't step to the podium for his weekly press conference in Cleveland without pissing somebody off, right? Like, he just wasn't quite ready to be the face of a franchise. He had more commercials than touchdown passes seemingly. He didn't have great judgment. It was my knock of coming out of college. And in the end, he just ticked off too many people, Andrew Barry, the coach, teammates, and it unraveled. And then he goes to, you know, Carolina and, you know, they want to see Sam Darnold play. But you had to root for Baker Mayfield tonight. Come on.

I mean, the reason we watch this stuff is upsets and drama and stories outside of our favorite teams we grew up with. That was a great story. And not only was it a great story, because of the multiple holding calls on the Rams tonight, Baker was 22 of 35, 230 yards, a touchdown, no interception. I'm not exactly sure. He had at least two, but I think three other really nice completions that were negated due to holding calls. And Baker's always throwing a pretty good ball when he can set his feet, clean pocket.

That's never been his problem. You know, he gets a little squirly sometimes when he's moving or he rushes things, his judgment. But if he can set and throw, I mean, you know, he was a number one pick for a reason. set and throw, let it rip. He can be accurate. But, you know, there's sometimes, is this ever true for you? Sometimes the more I get into golf, start taking lessons, or I start playing more, my golf gets worse.

I'm overthinking. And then I'll take like six months off. I'll go golf for the first time in the summer. It happened this year in Rhode Island. I played the best round of golf I've played like four years. I just went out and played. I didn't overthink it. Baker was playing tonight on adrenaline.

a little anxiety, a lot of nerves, didn't overthink it. McVeigh it, relay it, step back and let it rip. And it's impressive. I'm serious. That's about as impressive a moment that Baker Mayfield's had. I mean, listen, we all know the playoff win in Cleveland for people in Ohio is going to go down as a very memorable day. That's a really good team. That was a really good O line.

That was a really good roster. this ram offense is I mean Baker Mayfield made the Rams watchable you know we saw this a couple nights ago I was thinking about this with Brady struggled

and then his last two drives you know the defense goes into a little pre-vent the defense is on the field you start giving up you know seven 10 12 yards defense on the field end of a game defense gets tired

suddenly the defense, you know, the Saints against Brady, the Raiders against Baker gets a little more vulnerable, a little more gassed. You're asking, you know, you're asking these big guys to be on the field, those last two drives after three and a half hours. Brady and Baker Mayfield, when's the last time they were mentioned in the same sentence? But you had to root for Baker tonight.

I mean, that was fun. It really was a lot like that Buccaneer Saints game with Brady. Just drag until the final two drives. It really was. I think from this point forward, anytime you mention Baker, you should also simultaneously mention Tom Brady. That's the new rule in broadcasting. Tom Brady, Baker, Baker, Mayfield. Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady. Where'd you go, Baker. You know, we live in the same hometown now. Could you invite him on the volume. If you're an excellent guest, not sure he accepted. He's going to be. busy actually learning the playbook. Isn't that amazing? I mean, think about, speaking of Brady,

when Brady moved to Tampa, he literally held secret practices that were taped by a helicopter, like 10 frantically trying to learn the playbook with a loaded roster. And 12 games in, all those practices, Brady was seven and five, the protection was bad. He was screaming at teammates. Baker Mayfield is in town with a bad roster. He doesn't know. He can't spell Ben Scoronic. His best receiver, he doesn't know where he went to college. He's never seen him play. They've probably never run, you know, they've never run in-game routes, obviously.

And Baker Mayfield was pretty accurate tonight. When he had reasonable time to throw, he's pretty accurate. And Raider fans, I've supported you all year, you earned that L. You absolutely earned every inch of that L. that was bad. And I've been on the Raiders bandwagon all year. That was awful. That was just awful.

Tip of the cap to Baker Mayfield. So the guy we're going to bring on who has the same first name, the same nickname, and many believe the same style. Joe Montana was also a guy who was always more athletic than people gave him credit for. So other Joe When you were in the league Maybe it was because there were L ways People never understood I remember hearing Bill Walsh talk about this

You were way more athletic Than you got credit for Bill Walsh just didn't necessarily want you Run it around But did you ever think to yourself I can dunk a basketball I can do it three Did you ever think you never got credit for it?

Well you know what's so funny is like It's like a catch-22 sometimes. And I'm sure, Joe, I don't know if you've had the same problems, but when you move around a little too much, your linemen start complaining. They go, he's supposed to be right over here so I can protect him. But next thing, I know he's over there. I go, well, you know what?

It might be your block and your guy that somebody else, I think, had a little mishap. And then when things take a little bit longer, you just try to buy time. You get out of the pocket if you can do it and guys who can do it, just try to find, you know, I'm not trying to run.

I'm not a runner, but I was trying to find ways to get the ball to somebody else as fast as I could do it. Do you, Phil Sim said last week, he said, Burrow is Montana with a better arm. I thought Joe Montana had a good arm.

I never thought. It's not hard to have a better arm than I had. But, you know, Phil knows because we played him enough times he saw. He was used to seeing it. Do you see yourself and Joe be? I never really look at things that way. I just enjoy, I mean, I enjoy watching. I mean, the things that he does and the way that he carries himself

and the excitement that he brings to the game and, you know, the throws that he makes like he made last week, And congratulations, by the way. You sit there and you watch and you go, you know, you to play the game at that level, you have to be that accurate. And, you know, you can do all the things. You can make the right decisions. But if you can't throw the ball where you want to throw it,

it doesn't really matter. Like, you'll see a lot of guys throwing the ball. It's just a little behind and the ball gets knocked down. And it's understanding throws, too, that I think that he has. is that, you know, you got guys running across the field and the guy's right on his back. Now, that guy in the NFL, he's open. Now, if I throw the ball hard on the line, the DB has a chance to knock it down. But if I throw it soft out in front of him, he runs into it, different story.

You can still get to completion. And I see him do those types of things. And a lot of the quarterbacks today, it's always about how strong their arms are and how hard they can throw it. They throw the same pass every town. And then they wonder why balls getting knocked down. down because, you know, those guys over there get paid to be close to your receivers. And, you know, I always would say, like, you get in high school, you know, you guys three, four yards open, right?

In college, it's down there, like, two feet behind and they consider a guy open. And you get in the NFL, guys are running right next to each other. That guy's open. It's up to the quarterback to figure out how to get involved. And that's what the difference in guys like Joe. I want to go back to Joe Burrow. What I noticed, because I'm in my 50s, is the accuracy and the size are very similar. But there's also, and this is really rare, even the great Peyton Manning, I would watch his feet.

He was called a teeth clencher. Peyton could get really intense. Your John Candy story is legendary, is that Joe B. has a real, I have a sense that it's like a race car driver and his heart rate lowers in the turn. And I think a lot of that's innate. I don't think you can teach that. Some people are anxious. Some people are not.

You're both called Joe Cool. So I want to go to you, Joe B. Is that a, do you develop that? Because I see it as a TV viewer. Your feet don't change. I almost think you're more accurate. But was it like that in high school? Yeah, I've kind of just always relished the moment of, you know,

whether whatever sport it was playing growing up, whether it was basketball, baseball, or football, I just kind of like being in that moment and having the game come down to put the bat in my hand or taking the final shot or, you know, two minute drill. I just always felt like I gave us a good chance to win. when I was at that point in the game with that opportunity. Well, no, that's perfect. It's perfect, though. And when you hear everybody talk, it's in the position he's in,

it wouldn't no matter what sport, if you don't want the ball or you don't want to be up to bat, your chances of success are not very good. And just example of his throw at the end of the game, not only was it into a tight hole, but there was a guy right here, and you, when he's behind you,

you can feel him, but you can't see him, but when he's here, you can feel him and see him and know you're going to get hit, but that's what makes the difference between the good players and the great players that can stand there,

no one he's going to take that hit and deliver the ball that he delivered accurately, like he did, to win, you know, put them in the, to be able to kneel down. And those, those things you just, that's what makes a difference in the quarterback to me. And that throw right there said everything.

And I think it really, it really starts with, you know, the preparation throughout the week and the preparation throughout the off season, not just film watching and practice, but, you know, in off season, getting your workouts in, not missing any days, all in your routine, to a T. And that gives you the confidence in yourself to go out and be able to, make the plays in those situations. You're not worried about what coverage it is or my feet going to be right. You just fall back to the level of your training.

Joe Montana, you didn't have social media to deal with. But nonetheless, outside of maybe Joe Namath, you were as big a star in your playing days as a quarterback could be. And you didn't have social media. Joe B, who I talk to regularly, I'm like, oh, what are you doing this weekend in your biweek? he's like watching TV and eating at home. I'm like, man, that's discipline.

That good-looking kids going to stay home and watch reruns on television. And I want to ask, Joe, when you look at what Joe Burrow deals with, Twitter, social, talk radio, would you have handled it as well as him? Well, I think one of the things that was great about Bill Walsh was he helped you handle the little things that we have. I had to deal with. And, you know, he helps steer you through that. I don't know if his coaches are doing that for him. But I'm sure Bill would have taken the reins,

just like he did at some point after we won our first Super Bowl. And he finally, he called me in one day and just said, you know what? I understand, you know, you're trying to take advantage of the success we had. He goes, well, I just want to remind you what got us here. And I want to be sure you're doing the same thing. and prepare in the same way because preparation was a big thing for Bill, especially for the quarterback position.

So I agree with what Joe just said is that when you go into a game prepared, you know, your confidence level was up. You're not worried about like your feet. Your feet will take care of themselves because of the training that you've been through. And Bill probably would have had something to do with social media. He would have found somebody if you didn't find it yourself to go handle it for you. and take the pressure off of you having to look at it and be on it and do it. What am I going to do?

And taking photos and trying to be somewhere that it's just like everybody was saying, well, I got involved in venture after the venture community after I retired. I probably missed a lot of opportunities while I was there because I didn't pay attention to it. I was playing a stupid game that I loved and played all my life. and I was getting paid for it. And I didn't want anything to take that away from me. And so I didn't deal with a lot of that. And, you know, I don't know how Joe's handling,

but obviously he's doing a pretty good job of it because, you know, it can get in your way easily. Oh, yeah. You can say one little thing wrong or be in the wrong spot. And, you know, and then it becomes a nightmare on top of it. And you don't want that distraction while you're playing. Joe Burrow, do you ever feel, as Joe said, that you're probably missing out on millions by not embracing it?

Yeah, you could always do more. But, I mean, I think if you want to play at the level that I want to play at, you have to be just about as singularly focused as you possibly can be, especially during the season, you can't have any outside distractions. And what's great about my family and friends is that they understand that. And that's how I want to be and that's how I am during the season. And so my family really helps take care of, you know, tickets and parking and all that stuff. So I don't have to deal with that.

And I can just be singularly focused on the performance on Sundays. The similarities you guys have are really striking to me. You're about the same size. Joe Cool, the nickname. The tempo and the style, stylistically, optically, look the same. You also both have a dominant number one receiver. It's crazy that Joe B played with Jamar in college, you know, told the front office, I know he need an offensive line, but get me, Jamar Chase.

Joe, I want to go back to Joe Montana, though. Jerry Rice, none of us saw him play in college. It was like Mississippi Valley State. Nobody had heard of him. So Joe, bro, you knew instantly how good Jamar was. Other Joe, how long did it take with Jerry Rice? Small college, none of us saw him play. Before, was it a practice when you went, oh, Lord, oh, Lord.

It became a work ethic thing, which is, You know, we had already won two Super Bowls and you think you have a pretty good work ethic. And, you know, Bill was talking about this wide receiver he found and he brings him in. And, you know, the first day or two of practice, I mean, seriously, balls are hitting him in the face, bouncing off his shoulder pads. He's dropping. But he catches a first pass and it's like 60 yards to the end zone. He sprints 60 yards and scores a touchdown. And so you sit there and everybody's going, oh, jeez.

because, you know, when you're in practice, throw the ball to the wide receiver, they're caught to make that move and go up the field, 10 yards or so and come back. Jerry, every time he touched the ball, he'd scored a touchdown. He didn't care for it was 9 yards, 90 yards. And then so it became a habit in the game.

All of a sudden, now he's scoring touchdowns. And you say, is it a coincidence that he's the NFL's all-time touchdown reception leader by a big margin still. And you say, no, that's what he did every day of practice. And here we are thinking we had pretty good at work ethic until we saw Jerry. And then Jerry, you know, becomes it becomes catchy and on goes to John Taylor. He's throwing the ball to John Taylor and he's doing the same thing.

And then, you know, the sad thing for me is John Taylor could have been Jerry Rice if we didn't have Jerry Rice. I mean, here's a guy that went two times 90 plus in the same game. Only two people have ever done that in the NFL. And you drop back and you go, oh, Jared, uh, John Taylor, John Taylor. Oh, Jerry Rice. We look over there. John, I think he's wide open. And he going, I'm sorry, John.

He never said a word about it. I don't say a word. Yeah. Yeah. It's, um, it took a little bit. And then all of a sudden that he had a really weird way of getting behind you. He had a long stride, upright. but and I don't know what it was.

Whether people misunderstood his speed, but man, he'd get to the post in a heartbeat. And so. What's interesting, Jamar Chase had drops in his first camp. Remember Joe B.

And if I recall, people questioned Jamar's speed, did they not? Well, I mean, just hearing him talk about Jerry Rice and how he's talking about how he just had a way of getting behind people. I mean, it's just

is so similar to how Jamar plays. I mean, he just has a way of getting on your toes and getting behind you on a go ball. It's, I don't know. I've never really seen it before. It's just uncanny the way that he does it.

Okay, Joe, I want to tee you up. The Guinness gives back program and Joe Burrow is joining the program. Tell our audience, if you could, exactly what this is. Well, just one thing about Guinness, and I've been with Guinness for a number of years now, and that wherever we go, whatever community they're in, I mean, I think they're 260 years old. They've always tried to be a part of that community and find ways to give back. And the sunglasses that I put on, they created and have those available for people.

You can get on the website and figure out how you can earn a pair of those glasses. They wanted their, the initiative is to pledge a million hours of service to the communities around the country. And, you know, you can get on the website, givesback.ginnis.com and find out more about it. But they want to, they're trying to find ways to engage everyone around. You know, turn on the news. What it's, I don't even want to turn it on. It's sad. And you ask people, how can you help?

How can they help? Everybody in their mind is either walking by something or looking at something somewhere going, well, that's, I wish, you know, that doesn't look very good. Maybe someone should do something about that. Well, if you're thinking about it, go do it. That's all. You know, it's pretty simple. And just give it back to the community that you're living in.

And, you know, there's plenty of people out there that need food and clothes and help and whatever it might be. And we do a lot of things for children's charities, which is big for us. us and the whole family. Jennifer keeps everybody going in that direction, which has been great. And so we're just out there. And they had this great idea of bringing some youth into the mix. And Joe's a perfect fit. And they came up with the campaign and sounded great to me. And obviously, Joe, because he's now a part of that Guinness family. And he'll soon find out, you know how close they are. Joe B, any thoughts?

Well, one of the biggest reasons I wanted to join this was because they were, you know, they made a sizable donation to my foundation to help jumpstart it. And, you know, they've done a lot of work with food insecurity, which is obviously very close to my heart, talked about it in my Hizmann speech. And it affects the area where I'm from. and so it was really a no-brainer for me. They donated $250,000 to help my foundation that I think will help a lot of people. And so it was a perfect fit in my mind.

If you'd like to make a pledge, go to givesback.ginnis.com. Givesback. Dot ginnis.com. Well, both of you, absolute pleasure. Joe Burrell, congratulations. You beat the Chiefs. Do you remember Joe Montana? Do you remember, give me a memory of your Kansas City days?

Because most young people know Joe Montana, 49er, the rings, the championships. Do you have fond memories at Casey? Oh, you would love there. The people, you know, we lived around, the people in the community. And I still remember the first time you run it on the field as a chief. and we were getting ready to play our first home game. And Marty Schottenheimer comes up to me and says, oh, man, way do you run out on the field?

You know, in this stadium. And I'm going, come on, Marty, seriously? I mean, we won four Super Bowls that ran out on the field. You know, he goes, no, I'm serious. But there was something about the electricity in that stadium as a home field participant. And you win this, when the whole stadium at the end, end of the national anthem and it says end the home of brave the whole stadium says and when they end the home

of they all say chiefs as loud as they can't it gives you goosebumps still to this day just thinking back of those days it's a fun place to play uh i don't know if it's a fun place to play as an opponent it's just pretty it's pretty loud and you know what the heck barbecue is pretty good too yeah the Midwest fans really appreciate their football. These LA fans, if it's windy and 62, they stay home. You know that. I know that, yep. Been there. All right. Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.

Yeah, thank you. Good luck, Joe. Thanks, Joe. Appreciate it. See you so. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

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stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fandulul America's number one sports. book right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always common.

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Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. First online, real money wager only, refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.Fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1-800-800-9-700 next step or text next step to 5334-2-8-8-8-9-7-77. or visit ccpg.org slash chat, Connecticut, 1,800, gambler, or visit Fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, and Virginia. 18777-7-0-0-0-1-1-7.

In Louisiana, 1-800-2707-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. All-O-A-ROTES provided by Fandul. By the way, before we get into our picks, I think a really fascinating situation. I'm going to throw this at you. So I do mock drafts all day. life, right? And so in this league, often you will get really good players having a down year. They get hurt. Bad system. Rarely do you get average players having a great year, Gino Smith. I am betting against him next year, duplicating this, right? So you're Seattle,

you're the GM. They have two firsts, two seconds, a third, two, fourths. So those are seven high quality picks. Do you, would you give up a third for Jordan Love who will be 25

bigger than Bryce Young, more talented than C.J. Stroud and more season than all of them. I would give up a third for him still have two first, two seconds, two fourth. I wouldn't draft a quarterback.

Because I think, here's what I think, Chad. If you look at that roster, they have two needs. Nose tackle, their first pick, Georgia. Looks like the next Fletcher Cox. And then you can argue center or another receiver. It's a good center and wide receiver draft until about late second. I wouldn't draft a quarterback. I would go get Jordan Love with a third.

Been in the league, good coaching, behind a star. is he any less talented than C.J. Stroud? He's five inches, four inches bigger and heavier by 25 pounds than Bryce Jump. What would you do as GM? Quarterback is such an important position in the NFL. You have that much draft capital. I would be as aggressive as possible. Package Gino Smith. Maybe. Maybe. be in number one, maybe in number two, try to get as close to the top of the draft as possible and get a player at quarterback who you believe is going to be your generational talent. I would not do it with Jordan Love. I think there's enough tape on Jordan Love from practices and preseason games for GMs

to understand who he is at this point. and also know that Aaron Rogers, when they're resigning Aaron Rogers, they couldn't have believed in Jordan Love. Because if they did, the same way the Packers were like, we got to get Aaron Rogers start playing. We got to get rid of Brett Farve. If Jordan Love was that good, Aaron Rogers wouldn't be there anymore because he's a pain in the ass. So I disagree with you.

Remember, Seattle does have Denver's first pick. So they're going to have a top five pick without giving up anything. Then, by the way, I'd stand pat, there are multiple quarterbacks who could go top five right now that you believe could be of that kind of talent to be perennial pro bowlers. You don't need to go trade for a guy who's three years in that a lot of people don't think is the next guy. I wouldn't do it. All right. as they say you know

I'm pouring I'm pouring cold water on your hot take all right well I wouldn't be the first guy so I like I've been

very much an underdog guy all year I'm going to start with a favorite I like everybody now pouring cold water on the dolphin

No, no, no, no, no. Missing both tackles against the best defense in about six years in the league. The chargers are poorly coached, inconsistent O-line and receiver. Miami's a real team. We overreacted to that loss.

The fact they were competitive late is impressive. They were missing both tackles against the best defensive front in the sport. I think Miami is better coached. State out west bounces back as a favorite minus three. Really like the dolphin, sharper square. Not only do the wise guys disagree with you on this, on the favorites pod today, this was what we call our big balls better than week. You got to have balls if you want to bet the Angeles Chargers and a team that's been banged up with a really big coaching deficit, because

I agree the Dolphins are just much better coach than Los Angeles Chargers. But the Chargers' as dogs are different than the Chargers' favorites. The Chargers is dogs. There's so much variance in how they play, what their play calling is. There are complete wildcards in a game that probably can be a shootout because I do think that the dolphins are struggling with injuries. and the number's three and a half so you're getting the hook. Right now, this is a total pros Joe's game with the squares on the dolphins and the wise guys on the chargers. All right, let's go back to dogs, which I usually like. Deshawn Watson's going to be better in week two than week one.

Divisional game plus six. They've had their number. Bengals off a wildly crucial watch, disgust game over the Chiefs. Pull back a little. Browns plus six or five and a half. sharper square. Great number, totally sharp play, divisional game, playing against with the Browns, a team that did horribly against a team that is even worse in the Texans. This game probably should be lined around four, but there's inflation on the Bengals because they are now the public

darling. And what they did to the chiefs, which we talked about, love the bangles as two and a half point home underdogs. It's exactly what we thought they would do. But now the market is so overinflated on the Bengals. You have to take the Browns in this, another one where there's a huge discrepancy. You've got a lot of tickets. Tickets are usually indication of the squares of the public coming in. They're all coming in on the Bengals. But the money, coming in on the Browns. I think my favorite bet of the week as a dog is the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks. I think this team plays hard.

I think they like Sam Darnold. I think Seattle struggled to put away what is currently an awful Rams team. I think Seattle is a better story than a team. People buy into sometimes stories and narratives. This game to me is last second. not shocked if Carolina wins. For the record, Brian Burns, rookie offensive tackle, watch out.

I like Carolina plus the point sharper square. Totally sharp. Complete agreement on this. Seattle's really been struggling the past few games. Kenneth Walker, he looked like the odds on favorite. He was the odds on favorite to win offensive rookie of the year. Last three games, that running game has been struggling. He's injured, did not practice on Wednesday.

His backup is injured, did not practice as well. They're in a lot more third and long situations, which does not play to Gino's strength. And you're right about the Panthers. When Baker Mayfield isn't the quarterback for this team, they're a mediocre to decent team. Defensively, they're really good on explosive plays, defending explosive plays. and J.C. Horn, he's had 361 coverage snaps this year. He's allowed 138 yards. He's great.

So he's great. So if you look at like the other side of it, we just said the Seahawks need to run the ball, but they're going to have a hard time doing it. So then you've got a lockdown corner who can take away D.K. Metcalfe or Tyler Lockett. So now you've basically eliminated all the things that the Seahawks can do. I think the wise guys agree that this is a good number and they expect it to be a close game. Vikings getting a point and a half, all odds provided by a fan duel, still a better team, more balanced than Detroit. Detroit off a big win feeling themselves. It is still an absolutely awful back end of the defense, even if they outplay Minnesota. Minnesota's got that veteran quarterback, lots of weapons.

This is a classic, I just don't trust Detroit as a favorite. I'll take more stability, at least a defense that can occasionally situationally make some stops, sharper square, I'll take the Vikings and the points. You are playing pretty square on that one. I don't agree that you can say the Vikings are a better team than the Lions. In fact, if you look at the numbers, look at the advanced metrics, which is what wise guys like to do. They don't do total yards on offense, total yards on defense.

They like to look at the next level. They look to look at the metrics that tell you the story of the game regardless of what the final score is. So one of those metrics is called DVOA, right? Lions 13th overall in DVOA, Vikings 20th. Lions ninth in offense on DVOA, Vikings 18th. Defense, Lions 19th, Vikes 18th. And by the way, since the Lions came out of the buy, and since they fired their defensive backs coach,

this is a team that statistically, offensively and defensively, is pretty much the Cincinnati Bengals. And everyone thinks the Cincinnati Bengals are now going to the Super Bowl. So the reason why you have a team that has a much worse record that is favored at home against the team that is leaving their division

by many, many games, is because the professionals feel like the Lions are probably a better team than the Vikings. And the fact you're getting it at one and a half is a really good number, I recommend you take it. Sometimes I don't understand numbers and I stay away. But I actually think when Mike White's at quarterback,

it's a reasonably capable offense. They're now getting 10. Revenge is overrated in divisional games. I think Buffalo's a good team. 10 against the Jets defense seems awfully optimistic. I would take the points with the Jets. I think they're a real football team, Sharper Square. Believe it or not, it's square.

So right now, the number of tickets, the Jets are the public underdog in this game. So you mentioned the numbers at 10. It was at 9. The tickets are coming in on the Jets. But the money, the professionals, are on the bills. And so we've had what's called the reverse line move. That's when the preponderance of tickets are on one side, but the money is on the other side, and it moves in the direction of the money, not in the direction of the tickets.

And I think one, people believe Mike White is a better quarterback than Zapp Wilson. But now you're getting tape on Mike White. You've got six games of tape in the past couple of years. It's easier to figure out who this guy is. I think the wise guys feel like the bills will be able to. scheme against him differently. And I also think they believe the bills are getting healthy. And look, what they did against the Patriots 10 days ago was really impressive to beat a team that people thought was on the ascent in the Patriots and do it convincingly on the road in a

short week. That's not easy to do. You don't do that often in the NFL. So there's a lot of enthusiasm for what the bills can be right now. All right. Time for I'm not sure what to do with this game, I want to ask you, Jags plus three and a half at the Titans coming off a humiliating loss. Vrable off a humiliating loss. My guess is at home, they play or their arse off. But I didn't bet it. Tell me the side, sharper square. The sharp side is the Jaguars if there is a huge Trevor Lawrence question right now.

He injured his toe. Is he going to be playing? I think the expectation is that he will. will be playing. What you do by beating the Titans is you, by beating the Jags is by throwing the ball. The Titans don't have a downfield threat. Traylin Brooks is not expected to play because of the concussion protocols. And the Jags have a really good rush defense. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, let's say Trevor Lawrence does play. The Titans defense is crushed by injuries, especially in the secondary. They're just like, they're playing guys literally off the street right now.

So you're buying a little bit low on the jacks because what happened with the lines, they got completely blown out. And the Titans need to win by a margin. It's not like one or two points. They need to win by more than a field goal. That's actually when you fade ravele. So the wise guys, if they get Trevor Lawrence, are going to be in the jacks. Okay.

Now try to talk me into a game. For the record, last week, the minute the game started, I knew you were right. It was Denver. And I looked at them again this week at nine and a half. and I'm like, God, I hate it, but is that the game? Last week, I begged you. I begged you to bet the Broncos and I begged you to bet the Rams. I'm going to do it again.

Not with the Rams. I'm going to beg you, beg you, beg you to bet the Broncos. I will have more money on the Broncos this week than any other game. Forget about the teams. Let's just say you put your hand over the franchises. If you blindly bet, home underdogs are seven or more. The last 20 years, they cover 56% of the time. And by the way, when I give that number, it's not like, oh, they win six times out of 10.

That's a 400 plus game sample size. It is a lot of games, right? Take it one step further. You've got a team with a 65 plus percent winning percentage. That's Kansas State Chiefs against a team that is losing game, that is winning at 25% or less. Their winning percentage of 25% or less. Since 2016, those winning teams, the teams that win are covering at a 36% rate. Okay?

That's terrible. Let's take it one step further. And there's a reason for all this. Patrick Mahomes in November and December in his career is 32 and 5. against the spread 17, 18, and 2. The reason why all this happens is because when you get later in the year, you have bigger favorites. The bigger favorites are always the teams that have won for two straight months. They're the Kansas City Chiefs, right?

And so they're inflated. The public is going to come in on them. Bookmakers know that. So you are always getting extra value when you fade, that when you, when you, when you, when you bet against those teams because those teams are so beloved by the public. Monday night football, Patriots Cardinals. Be my betting buddy, Colin. I know it's hard.

I told you, I hate betting bad offenses. It's terrible. Betting is terrible. Patriots Cardinals, who would you take? I'd probably take the Cardinals. It's interesting. We've talked about this. Like when we do the podcasts, we do one on Tuesday.

We do one on Thursday. In those 48 hours, we get a lot of calls from professional betters who like to talk about the games that we were talking about and sort of give us their take. And we call it sharp calls. And there are a lot of sharp calls as we like in Arizona. It's a little bit because the paths seem to be in some offensive disarray. I think that we're talking. And we talked about this a couple weeks ago with the Cardinals prior to the body. I liked him as dogs against the Chargers and that covered.

It's because they were finally healthy. Like they got Hollywood Brown. They got DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been all worlds since he came back. You're just getting a better look at that offense. And the Pats, if they struggled with anything defensively, it's been with Russian quarterbacks. So I favor the Cardinals.

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