The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Prime Cuts: Bengals HC Zac Taylor on Burrow, Deshaun Watson Trade Talk with Mike Silver, NFL Week 8 Bets

Episode Date: October 30, 2021

It's the best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast! First Colin's top takes of the week on why the media is terrified to criticize Patrick Mahomes, what Baker Mayfield has in common with Zoom and Bitcoin, and what message Bill Belichick was sending by running up the score on the Jets (3:00). Then, Bengals HC Zac Taylor and Colin discuss the first time he saw Joe Burrow and how they’ve developed their relationship (11:00), and what sold them on taking superstar rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase with the 5th overall pick in the draft (18:00). Longtime NFL writer Mike Silver and Colin look at which teams should seriously consider acquiring Deshaun Watson (23:00), and why the Raiders are thriving following Jon Gruden's ugly exit (27:00). And finally, The Action Network CCO Chad Millman tells Colin if his Cowboys/Vikings and Bucs/Saints NFL Week 8 picks are "sharp" or "square". Colin also discusses his zoom call with Tom Brady and why heavy NFL favorites are covering more (32:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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been easier to play fantasy on fan duel, whether you love basketball, golf, soccer, or any fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan. Fan duel. More ways to win. Hey, this is Prime Cuts. The Best of the Colin Coward podcast. More, more good stuff this week. Longtime NFL writer Mike Silver discussing Deshawn Watson trade rumors. Bingles head coach Zach Taylor opened up about what makes Joe Burrow tick. My guy Chad Millman tells me, my picks, sharps, or squares? And we Okay, first, my top takes of the week.

In my business, I notice this a lot. And I don't want to call out anybody individually, but I call it safetyism. You never get pushback if you're a sportscaster, if you play it safe. You never have a contrarian take. You always go to Twitter and, oh, my homes is great. Of course, you're going to get no pushback. I take great pride in the fact that I can do a simulcast. In fact, we're the only one in the country still doing it.

I get a number on TV and radio and podcast and digital and Facebook. And the reason is that we're willing to say things and get shit for it. And I said this a couple of weeks ago. It's very easy to criticize those who criticize Baker Mayfield. But you and I all know this, all the safe takers out there. You and I know this. They today would not give him an extension. You know it and I know it and I've been saying it for three years and getting shit for it.

But a prime example is Mahomes. Everybody is petrified of criticizing Mahomes on social media because you get pushback. But he's loose. He's getting looser. He is not the easiest quarterback to coach. Andy Reid's lovable. It's good ownership. I think a smart GM.

But right now, Kansas City is trying to throw haymakers. And they don't do a lot of things well. And it's a very thin, roster where they pay five or six players top dollar. And some of this, not all of it, not a majority of it. But right now, Derek Carr is playing as well or better than virtually every quarterback in the league. It's okay to say it.

And Mahomes isn't perfect. People forget this. He's been in the Super Bowl twice. In seven of the eight quarters, seven of the eight, he's been outplayed by Jimmy Garapolo and a 44-year-old Tom Brady. I like Mahomes. I do not think Kansas City is a special team this year. I think they're bad defensively.

The offensive line is a little hit and miss. They've also had injuries. But sometimes I roll my eyes. It's okay to criticize Patrick Mahomes. He's not played as well. He's made some really bad throws. In the last 15 games, the Chiefs are three and 12 against the spread. What does that tell you?

The media has become the fans. They're overvaluing Kansas City. They have not played particularly well in, I don't know, you saw the Super Bowl. You've watched all these preseason games. You've watched these regular season games. When a team is 3 and 12 against the spread, they're being wildly overvalued. A lot of that is the fans. A lot of that is the media.

Just because you like Andy Reid, and because Patrick Mahomes can throw it with his left hand, doesn't mean they're not fallible. It's okay. you'll get a little pushback on social media. Eye roll. That's part of the business. If you're not getting pushback, you're not really doing your job. There's a lot of different things to talk about.

I thought it was interesting that Bill Belichick not only beat the Jets, but rubbed it in. They were throwing the ball. Play action passes with three minutes left in a 30-point lead. Why? We all know he doesn't like the Jets, but he also has a deep respect for football history. and win or lose, Belichick has always done it by respecting the game. Well, he was pouring it on the jets. And my theory is this.

He wants to make sure that everybody knows that the Mac Jones, the quarterback, he liked the rookie, is a lot better than Zach Wilson. He wants to make sure you know that. Secondly, they are no longer the kings, not only of the AFC, but the AFC East. He is now competing potentially with the DHS. dolphins and the Jets for free agents, for coaches. This is no longer Bill is at a certain level, everybody's at a different level. He's in a dog fight with the Jets and the Dolphins to get that wild card birth and he wants to make an imprint around the league is we're good, we're getting

better. If you're a free agent, if you're a top coach, keep your eyes on us. I think you'll see this the rest of the year from Belichick. If he has a chance, if he smells blood, he's absolutely going to pour it on. That's not the Belichick we knew with Brady. They had a lot of games with a lead in seven minutes to go, and they were running the ball, eating the clock, and going to bed and getting out of town. But I thought it was really interesting to see how he not only won,

but poured it on the jets to make it known there is a gap still between the Patriots and the Jets. We may not win this division, but there's still a monster gap between these two. franchises. Not that I'm cynical, but I tend to look at what things can't do before what they can do. And I'll give you an example. When Zoom came out, right, we go into a pandemic and everybody loves Zoom. And I bought some early stock and then I sold it. And I don't even know what the stock price is. And everybody looked at it and thought, oh, my God, I can work remotely. I don't have to

leave the house. And my takeaway is, yeah, but it can't give me perfect audio like having coffee at Starbucks. It's impersonal. It goes in and out. You become very tech dependent. And the other thing is about Zoom is, I like to leave the house. People gain weight during the pandemic because they didn't leave the house. When I go to work every day at Fox, I'm moving around, I'm walking between breaks, I'm going to the bathroom, I'm grabbing a coffee, I'm moving, I'm walking upstairs. Like Zoom culture is not terribly healthy, and it can be maddeningly frustrating. Same thing with Bitcoin. People look, oh, what it can do, make me rich.

I look at it and say what it can't do, buy me a car tomorrow. I'll put a little money in Bitcoin, and I think cryptocurrency has a future. But what it can't do is buy me things tomorrow. And so I'm not interested right now. I've always said this about Baker Mayfield. It's what he can't do that limits Kevin Stefansky. You can't give him 45 to 50 throws a day. He's got poor judgment.

He plays with a cockiness that can be detrimental. You can't have a average to below average offensive line and win with him. So far, he can't work well with OBJ. I know he can throw, but what he can't do, is why I could never give him the bag. I just think too often we look at the cans without realizing the cants are what limit people,

limit companies, limit quarterbacks. All right, Zach Taylor, third year as a head coach, first place in the AFC North, which is just crazy. I picked him for last. What do I know?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing. So, Zach, when was the first time you saw Joe Burrow and what was your initial impression? Probably the first time I heard the name was he was considering going to Cincinnati, the University of Cincinnati before he went to LSU. That's probably the first time the name popped up. I've known his dad for a long time.

I knew Dan and Jamie Burrow, his two brothers that played in Nebraska. I didn't know that there was a Joe Burrow that existed, you know, until really he transferred LSU and then he became part of the draft process. And that was really the first time he ever came on my radar. But I've known his family because they're all Nebraska alums and they went to Nebraska. and his brother graduated right before me. So I've known the borough family for a long time. Yeah, my daughter sat next to him in Baltimore this weekend. She went to the game.

Bizarre. I actually said it to Joe because I DM him once in a while to wish him well. And in the process of drafting him, when you're sitting down there with your general manager and the Brown family, what could you share with them about the family before meeting Joe to say, Like you have to draft this guy. Well, you know, I didn't know Joe as well, obviously. So I had a hard time speaking to him.

But just son of a coach, you know, and so you do your research. Okay, what does that mean? Does that mean he's a football junkie? He grew up. He understands the game. And he's got that edge to him, you know, that you need to have. And those are some of the qualities that he did have once we got to know him. So, you know, just, just it's a tremendous family.

You can see why Joe is the way he is. And we're really lucky to have him. Yeah, he has kind of a Brady and comparing anybody to Brady is not great. But there is, you know, Jay Glazer always said there's a little bit of an unhealthy obsession with successful people, whether it be if I'm a broadcaster, you're in tech or you're a football player, that I was talking to Mark Sanchez today and he goes, oh God, Joe loves football. Joe loves football. He likes the process. He likes practice. in your years of coaching players, that's not true with everybody.

Some guys don't love it as much, Zach. I mean, if I said to you, Joe loves it. What percentage of players in your coaching experience live for it like a Joe? He's a little bit different that way. He's got the right edge to him. And a lot of people do just love what football brings to their life. They don't necessarily love everything. They're talented and it's what's expected of them and they're good at it

and they love the things that brings. Joe, from my time around, and he's obsessed with the process, you know, every little detail. And, you know, it's never perfect for him, which is great. That's what you want from your starting quarterback. And it just trickles down to the entirety of the team.

Everyone's got so much confidence in them. They don't want to let him down because he's going to put himself to be in a position to be ready. And in his teammates, you can just get that sense. They don't want to let him down. And that's the standard that we're looking for. Can you get in his ear during a game? You know, you'll hear these legendary stories. Hey, we drew it up in the same.

or we did a little wiggle, we'd never practiced. Are you comfortable now occasionally going to a space like that? We're in a game situationally. You're like, try this, or he offers his opinion to you similarly to do a little wiggle maybe that it's off script. Absolutely. You know, we just have to make sure it's sound. There's probably been times over the two years where we've gotten to him.

And I just, hey, are you comfortable with this? If we did this, can you see it? Do you feel good about it? And that's one thing that I do admire about Joey's. He's very honest. And he's not one of those guys are just going to yes or you to death because you think that's the answer you want. He'll be very honest. I don't understand.

I don't want to do that. I don't like that. Please do this. And that's the communication I want. He's an extension of our coaching staff. It is different when you're talking to a quarterback at times. You want that clear and honest feedback. And Joe's not afraid to give it to you.

And I appreciate that. Yeah, that to me is a fascinating relationship. I mean, that you, I've seen it without. quarterback comes over, coach is like, you tell me what you see. A lot of quarterbacks, due to the hash marks,

college to pro, it takes them a while to see the entire field. Could you tell that Joe could see it from his film at LSU? Or did it take him time at practice? Because take me and the people listening to this, I think a lot of people, they just don't realize that's not a natural innate thing to be able to have somebody running it.

you. And you can see four different receivers. Give me the process for Joe on that when he saw it, why he's so good at it, when you first recognized it. Well, I think for Joe, whether it's naturally or it came about it in high school, he's just got such a high football IQ. It makes sense to him. Just seeing something for the first time makes sense on why it's happening. And so Joe, playing in college, you know, the system they were in, Joe Brady came from the Saints. There was a lot of NFL concepts. So there was a lot of full field progress. You needed to understand the coverage and then understand how the concept attacked it. And so you could see that on tape how quickly it was going to translate to what we do

because there's a lot of crossover there with the West Coast offense. And so we had a good feeling just from watching his tape, watching his 16 games or whatever he played, and then interviewing him, you could tell, hey, this guy's got it. He'll quickly pick it up. Our first training camp, you know, is the COVID training camp where he had no offseason. And he hit the ground running when we put the pads on. And you could just tell this guy's going to be special right from the get-go.

There's a fine line, and I see it with Burrow. There's a fun, I don't know if the word cockiness, but it's really likable. Like, I like him. I think that means something. I'm not going to mention names, but there have been quarterbacks who are cocky. And I just, I'm like, I don't, I don't know if I like them. I watched Brady and Peyton Manning and Eli last night on TV, give each other crap. All of them I found incredibly likable.

I mean, like, even in there, as Peyton was digging into Tom. I'm laughing. It's like a comedy actor. There's something about Joe to me. I don't want to reach here, but there's a likability about him. And I don't know what that means or how it manifests itself on the field. But I see it in all of his interviews. What am I seeing?

You're seeing a guy that really doesn't care what other people think. And so he doesn't feel like he's got to put on an act to impress people just because he's in the spotlight. He's just a Joe. And that's just his personality. he's confident because he puts in the work. And he doesn't run from that. Yeah, he's got the right edge to him. But I just think the most important thing is he's not out there to impress people.

He just wants to be one of the guys. He's a guy that works hard. He plays ball on the field. And he's just himself. And, you know, that's a cool thing to be around. You guys went and got a wide receiver, not an offensive lineman. And it was, you know, it was a mixed reaction. I mean, I love the draft, but there's no right answers.

The greatest coaches of whiffed on first round picks. It's hard. It's not science here at all. Take me back to the discussions because it was obviously a great move and Jamar's amazing. Joe was vocal about it, verbal about it. This guy's unbelievable. Was it a long decision? Was it something you went back and forth on that?

I mean, take me to the process of that. There was a lot of discussions. You know, you only had to pick five players because we were picking fifth. So you didn't need to have a conversation about 30, guys. You know, you knew it was going to be one of the five, and there was a couple of quarterbacks that were going to come off the board. So we took our time. There was no need to make a decision before April hit. You know, we were going to use all three months of it. But the most important thing is we need to be more explosive.

You know, the relationship with him and Joe weighed into it a little bit. That wasn't the deciding factor. We need to be more explosive. Having a great explosive receiver helps your offensive line as well. So not only does help your quarterback, it always does help your offense line, always help your defense because you can score more points and take some of the pressure off of the end. And so at the end of the day, you look at a lot of championship offenses that have had stellar quarterbacks, and a lot of them had three really good receivers, and defenses couldn't hone in on them.

And so that's our point of attack. It's put a lot of weapons out there. And, I mean, you look at Jamar Chase's 80-year touchdown there. The other day was a slant route. That's a quick game. The linemen don't have to protect very long. And I don't have to call any extravagant play. I called a slant flat for 80 yards.

You know, it doesn't get much easier than that. And so, you know, we're obviously very happy with the decision. Hey, the NFL season is approaching the halfway point. Fandul Sportsbook has a little something different to offer for the Sunday night matchup between Dallas and Minnesota. Listen up. Fandul's given new customers 25 to 1 odds on any touchdown scored in the game. What does that mean? It means you can end the NFL Sunday night by winning $125 on a $5 bet.

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Tennessee, and Virginia, or West Virginia refi... Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey, from basketball to college football or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a lot. a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people

who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've just that's correct. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the

most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kier Games. And in recognition of mental

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Shopify.com slash C-O-L-I-N. And we're live here outside the Perez family home just waiting for the... And there they go. Almost on time this morning. Mom is coming out the front door strong with a double-armed kid carry. Looks like dad has the bags.

Daughter is bringing up the rear. Oh, but the diaper bag wasn't closed. Dipers and toys are everywhere. Ooh, but Mom is just... Nailed the perfect car seat buckle for the toddler. And now the eldest daughter, who looks to be about nine or ten, has secured herself in the booster seat. Dad zips the bag closed, and they're off.

Ah, but looks like mom doesn't realize her coffee cup is still on the roof of the car. And there it goes! Oh, that's a shame. That mug was a fam favorite. Don't sweat the small stuff. Just nail the big stuff. Like making sure your kids are buckled correctly in the right seat for their age and size. Learn more at nhtsa.gov slash the right seat. Visit nhtsa.gov slash the right seat.

Brought to you by Netsa and the Ad Council. What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too. Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this,

we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. Let's bring on my buddy Mike Silver. All right, Mike, love having you on. Let's start. So the Miami situation now, Jake Glazer joined the reporting that Deshawn Watson,

they're working on making a move. Tua has completed 75% of his throws in the last two weeks. He had two god-awful picks, though, against Atlanta. And, you know, they've made their decision. teammates didn't name him captain. He was bench three times. He was hurt. I mean, they've made their decisions.

They see practice stuff. We don't. He's not the guy. There's not a lot of it there. Is there anybody else with your labyrinth of sources? I got to believe Philadelphia has to consider it. Washington has to consider it. Regardless of my personal opinion on Deshawn Watson in the story,

let's just talk from football operations. Is Miami the only team involved here? You know, I think Carolina comes back in a play. And I know Matt Wool has tried to go out of his way to say, hey, I'm all in on Matt or on Sam Darnold, but he benched Sam Darnold, you know, today. So, yeah, I, you know, it's a, it's a complicated equation. I don't think the Eagles will ultimately do it because I think at the highest levels of that organization, they will ultimately say, you know, there's just too much we don't know. There are the overtones of what he's accused of doing. There is the possibility of

league discipline and also legal discipline potentially that could factor in. And you're really, really giving up a lot. And yeah, that doesn't mean they won't. But really, this is an ownership decision, right, ultimately. Right, right. And so what I don't know that Jeffrey Lurie ultimately, when he sees that equation, he got a Super Bowl, his holy grail a few years ago. He knows they're trying to build it back up.

Does he think if they give up all that for Deshawn Watson, and they're back right now, I don't know. And then you don't know if you have them. David Tepper, the Panthers owner, clearly just wants to take home run swings, right? And he'll handle the blowback. He's like, look, man, you had an owner who was accused of stuff, and we got rid of him. So, you know, don't worry about the Deshaun Watson thing. I'll handle that.

So I think that's a possibility. And Miami, you have an older owner, Stephen Ross. and you have now a coach, Brian Flores, who all of a sudden feels pressure. And I don't think it's as much Chris Greer, the GM. He's did a great job of getting them the ammunition to build it. But I think it's more of a Brian Flores call as to who gets actually picked. And, you know, my friend and former colleague Jeff Darlington, VSP,

brought up a really good point a week ago, which is Brian Flores seems to be in that same pattern. we've seen many dolphin coaches in the Ross era have, which is early on, whoa, like Tony Spirado. Wow, hey, they won the division. Look at that. Adam Gates. Hey, got up to the playoffs.

Like, look at what's going on here. And last year, Brian Flores, you know, some big wins and nearly going to the playoffs. So now you look at Brian Flores and you're like, what is the plan? What's going on? And then the last thing, and you and I have talked about this a lot, It's one thing if you tried it, you picked Tua that high and it's not going great early. But you can't help but look to your left and to your right. And that's Joe Burrow went one.

Okay, he went one, but that's a home run right there. And then Justin Herbert went right after Tua, and that's maybe a grand slam. And so you have to view the Tua pick through that prison. Yeah, the aesthetics are really bad because fans keep score. the draft now. It's not like a hockey draft. It's not like a baseball draft. It gets bigger ratings than NBA playoff games. So we, everybody watches it. You know, these are guys from Oregon and LSU and Alabama. We all know these guys and we know, you know, the standings on the dolphins and where they chose. So Raiders, post-Gruden, they're playing with an incredible energy. I'm not, I'm, you know, we know that interim coaches, that's often the case. New conspiracy theory. The Raiders leaked the emails because they wanted rich besotia. No, I'm kidding.

Obviously, I'm speaking in Jess. But you know, you're right. They're playing really, really well at a time when they could have easily, you know, started moping and been discombobulated. Yeah. It also points to the fact that, and this goes back to sort of a cultural reality. This is a quarterback league more than ever. Derek Carr's good. He's got, you know, seven to eight legitimate weapons with Darren Waller healthy or not.

And the truth is, it overcomes a lot of shortcomings. I said this last week. Tua can win games. But what you're looking for, Tua is not the problem, but he's not the solution. The solution in the NFL is a great quarterback. He minimizes all your problems. Injuries, bad free agent signings, draft picks. Right.

And we all struggle with Derek Carr because he came from Fresno State. He wasn't a first rounder. The team was bad initially. Do we have to come to the point where we just go, shit? Derek's a top 10 quarterback. By the way, I've come to terms with that with Dak Prescott. He throws a better ball today than two years ago. I think Derek's one of those.

He's good. Well, here, I'll give you both sides on Derek. You know, what you said is what they think. He might not be the difference. you know, put us over the top, but we can definitely win with him. Now, so some things have changed, right? The defense is better with Gus Bradley, with the guys they brought in. That's a big deal.

Greg Olson has called two really good games with John Gruden gone. Let's give offensive coordinator Greg Olson some credit. He is stepping up to this challenge. So we look at Rich Pescia, but we also look at, you know, John Gruden's been replaced as a play caller too, and that's gone well. they don't believe Derek always is the, you know, toughest, you know, guy, you know, and I know he's been physically tough. I just think they think there are times where he isn't your classic.

Yeah, but I, the pro Derek Carr, and I've been saying this for years, look at this guy's comeback record. Look at, start looking at the numbers of how many times Derek Carr, because I've been in a lot of these games where he brought them. back in clutch situations and one, if I was a player on that team, I would believe in Derek Carr just off that. He is really, really clutch. So it's exciting what's going on with the Raiders. John Gruden, you know, when he first struck me the first time around, he did something transformative. They had an organization that was paranoid, the world's against us, kind of moopy

when things got down. And he came in and just said, shut up, we're going to play hard. And they Remember they beat the Chiefs his first or second year at the end of the year when they were out of it and the Chiefs needed a win on the road? And I was like, what has gone on with the Raiders? Well, he built them into what ultimately would be a Super Bowl team, although in his absence and then he beat them. But maybe that's his legacy this time around for all the horrific overtones of his exit. that maybe with Rich Missatia and Greg Olson and Gus Bradley and those players, they're not open in the wake of John Gruden's departure the way Mark Davis seemed to be, by the way. Ask the NFL, they have all the answers, you know, at a time when it called for bold statements and leadership.

And, you know, Al Davis's sense of equality and inclusion and social justice. And hearing me defend Al Davis is going to make a lot of people laugh, our history. But Al Davis was phenomenal at that stuff. So Mark Davis kind of came off terrible. Like the whole world's against us. Late was better the second time.

But give credit to those players, those coaches. They put their heads down and played hard. Yeah. All right, Chad Millman, my buddy, Chief Content Officer Action Network. So let me start with this week. I like the Cowboys minus one and a half at the Vikings. One of the reasons is in

standalone games, Kurt Cubs. cousins historically shrinks. I also think the calf injury for Dak Prescott is an advantage. The Cowboys are at their best when they run the football about 55 to 57% of the time. Because of the calf injury, they will. Zeke and Tony Pollard will get lots of work. They're healthy up front. I think the Cowboys, this is the only team that's covered the spread. Why? They're still undervalued. I like him to beat the Vikings sharper square, Millman. square. And the reason you went two and three last week is because you probably didn't listen

to me and everything I was saying because I didn't go two and three last week. In my best five, I went three and two. And three and two over the course of the season, that's how you put money in your pocket. So this is a square pick, my friend. It's a square like in a Quentin Tarantino movie. It is square. The Vikings defense is top 10 across a variety of metrics. You mentioned Dak Prescott and the calf injury. Dak Prescott has not been pressured much this year. When he is pressured, he is not a very good quarterback. And the Vikings defense, while they haven't been forcing a lot of turnovers, they are able

to pressure the quarterback and do it effectively. That's going to be a challenge for a guy who has a calf injury. What's most impressive, though, about the Vikings defense is their top 10 in a variety of metrics without forcing a lot of turnovers, which is really all the cowboys have been doing on defense and it's sort of made everything else shine a little bit brighter. And so you're talking about a defense that is good, fundamentally good, not getting the value against a defense that is not so good, getting a lot of attention. That's why the line, even though the Cowboys are the team getting the majority of the bets here, it's moved in the opposite direction. You've got a reverse line move here.

So the Vikings are the right side in this game. A couple of the things, you know, some Mike Zimmer stats against a non-division opponent since 2003. He's 48, 26, and 1. It's about 65%. He's also about 60% against the spread at home. So most wise guys, they've got this power rated at closer to a coin flip. One other thing you have to think about.

Dallas is undefeated against the spread, 6 and 0, right? This has only happened six other times, this late in the season in the past 20 years. So you have to ask yourself, are the Cowboys due for aggression with a defense that commits a lot of, that forces a lot of turnovers, but isn't that great otherwise, or are they unbeatable? I'm going to take a Vikings team at home that performs well with a good defense, which one more thing.

One more thing I will say. Look at the Vikings losses right now. Two of them are against two teams that we now see as being two of the better teams of the NFL, the Cardinals and the Bengals, two games that they should have won. So it's a team that would they really be two point underdogs or one and a half point underdogs if they were five and one with wins over the bangles and the Cardinals? Probably not take the Vikings. Okay. I always ask you this. The Atlanta game to me was incredibly tasty, but I've been burned so many times. I'm a little scared. Is there a game that I have not discussed that you have a strong feeling about for our audience? Love, love, love, love the Saints. Love the Saints this week against the Bucks.

Numbers about five and a half. It's been going up. This is going to be another Pro Joe game. The pros are going to be on the Saints. The Joes are going to be on the Bucks. The Saints defense is just really, really good. And we've seen Tom Brady struggle more on the road. we've seen with the Saints

because of what they did against the Seahawks. They're a little bit deflated from a primetime game. You mentioned the Bucks, blowing out the Bears as huge favorites when a lot of people thought the Bears would be able to cover

in that game that we didn't know yet what the Bears were going to be. So you're getting a huge amount of inflation on the bucks. You're getting deflation on the Saints. You've got a really good defense. I think it's a great coaching matchup. I like taking the Saints in this spot.

So that's certainly a game that I'm thinking quite a bit about. So here's my call in theory of the week. So I had a question to Tom Brady this week. I was on some Zoom call and there was like 15 of us or 12 of us, you know, Jim Nance and Scott Van Pelt and Adam Schaefter, those kind of guys, right? And then somehow I snuck on. And I asked Tom if you could make one rule change in the NFL, what would it be? It could be CBA, offseason, rule change, whatever. a radical change in the league.

And he said, Colin, my good friend, he didn't say that. He said the NFL is becoming a skills competition. That if you have a good quarterback, it's virtually impossible to stop. He goes, my 600th touchdown to Mike Evans, I would not have thrown that ball five years ago.

But the safety can't hit anybody. And he said, and I noticed this two weeks ago, I told this to you. The best quarterback won 13 of 14 games. two weeks ago, if Josh Allen doesn't slip, it's 14 of 14. There are fewer upsets in the league. The margin of victory. These lines now are often Saturday lines.

The best quarterback leads seven of eight divisions. The only exception is Mahomes, and it's not like Herbert and Derek Carr are slouches. Between the regulations and the lack of really good corner talent, Steve Kimes talked to me about this, the best quarterback now is just winning all the games. Like the Dallas Minnesota game to me comes down to, I like Dak more than Kirk Cousins. I'm having my worst year ever betting. I hit 57% almost every year for 15 years. Last year is a COVID year, no preseason, I threw it out.

I have friends who bet a lot. They can't hit. And I'm throwing a lot of stuff out. I've never bet big numbers. My betting theory was always take competent quarterbacks getting points. Well, competence is not good enough. anymore. And Brady went on to say, when he came into the league, even 10 years ago, he goes, you could win multiple ways. You can't anymore. You can win one way. We have a quarterback in weapons.

That's how you win. He goes, when I started with New England, when we played finesse teams, we won every time, highly skilled teams. But Pittsburgh would beat us. They weren't nearly as highly skilled, but they were physical. Well, when you take the physical out of it, it's just a seven-on-seven skills competition. And he goes, goes, even though I'm benefiting, I don't like where the league's headed. And so that's just kind of my theory on this. All the things I've always used aren't working. I mean, I've never bet 38% in my life.

I was at 57 my life. I can't get anything now. Your takeaway on this. Dude, there is so much to unpack there. I don't know if I want to talk about the Hall of Fame level of name dropping from Kimes to Van Pelt to Sheffey to Manx, to Brady. I can't believe like this call happened. And I'm just hearing about it now.

That's amazing. The Saturday lines, that's such a great inside baseball reference to like these lines looking like college football lines because every Saturday you'll see a 21 point spread. And in the NFL, you'd never see that. And last weekend we had the Cardinals as 20 point favorites. and they freaking covered. And you make an incredible point. I will bet every single weekend with my best friend growing up,

a huge fan of yours, by the way. And every year, the reason we bet together is because we do head-to-head and I crush him because I bet home dogs. I bet huge, I'd bet dogs that were huge underdogs against teams that look like they were world beaters. And he would do what the public does. He'd bet favorites. He didn't matter.

Whatever team was better, that's who he was going to bet. And this year, like, everything's been turned upside down. And it's been really challenging. The books are getting killed, right? Because the books love when the big underdogs win. And last week, like, you had the Lions. And that was it. The Cardinals killed the Texans.

The Bucks killed the Bears. The Packers killed the Washington football team. And the Tennessee Titans were, like, the one team that, that the public was backing that wasn't a huge favorite and they won. So it's been a really challenging year for a lot of people to bet. I think what you're talking about with the skills certainly has something to do with it. It's incredibly frustrating to watch football right now. Almost inevitably, there is going to be a holding call or a pass interference call in a series that is going your direction. It's incredibly challenging to bet. I feel terrible for you.

I feel terrible for a lot of people. The game is changing before our eyes, and we have to adjust on the fly. You know, like, for instance, Buffalo minus 13 and a half hosting the dolphins. Well, the dolphins are distracted with the two and nonsense. They have the worst pass blocking line in the league. The bills have the deepest defensive front in the league where they rotate eight to nine guys. I would have never considered that game.

And part of me is like, oh, yeah, a totally focused bills team is going to run them out of the stadium. Yeah. Seriously. I've had this conversation multiple times with professional betters this week. I've said, who do you like in this game? It's such a weird game. And they were like, oh, I like the bills. I'm like, really? You like the bills? And I'm like 13.5 point favorite against a team that like needs a win. It's overinflated. The bills are going to be the public side. And they're like, sometimes the public's right. And also the bills average like winning the beating the dolphins by 20 points during the McDermic career during the middermic era. So like it's changing. And sometimes the right side is the public side.

And we all got to get used to that. All right, buddy, good seeing you. See you, my friend. At the volume sports, YouTube channel, Twitter, Instagram, rate review, subscribe. We'll talk soon. The volume. gaming, stunning streams, unbelievable bandwidth. It's another lifestyles of giggillionaires.

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On the Look Back at a podcast. That was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

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