The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Best Cowboys Team In Years, Nick Wright On Harbaugh Scandal, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: December 2, 2023

Colin’s best takes of the week! He explains why Mike McCarthy has been underrated as a coach and why this is the best Cowboys team we’ve seen in years (2:00). He points to Frank Reich’s firing as the best example of ridiculously rich NFL owners having the financial resources to be impatient with coaches, and who it hurts the most (5:50) He also applaus Sean McVay for coaching the Rams to an impressive, overachieving season (10:00). Nick Wright, host of “First Things First” on FS1 drops in to weigh in on the severity (or lack thereof) of the Michigan cheating scandal and Jim Harbaugh’s future (15:00) John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” joins Colin to break down the sloppy play from the Bills and why they’ve wasted their window with Josh Allen. They also weigh in on Philly always finding a way to win (25:40). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 13 NFL slate!  30:00 - Chargers vs Pats 32:00 - Eagles vs 49ers 34:20 - Lions vs Saints 36:00 - Broncos vs Texans 37:45 - Packers vs Chiefs (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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you get your podcasts. The volume. This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman Sharper Square, Nick Wright on if Jim Harbaugh makes the leap back to the NFL in my top takes of the week. So the knock on the Cowboys was going into this game, they'd beaten the Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England, Carolina, a beat up Rams team in the Chargers. Well, Rams are now pretty good. Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent.

Washington's always in most games. They're a nine and three football team. I don't think they're as talented as San Francisco, but I do think they present some things where you can argue they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia. And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven blowout wins. And over the last decade, nine of ten Super Bowl teams have averaged seven. eight blowout wins. Dallas has seven. Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia would love to

blow people out, but they can't. They're back end of their defense is weak. Offensively, Jaylon Hertz is terrific, but he has become a very good second half quarterback and can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their last four games at half. So I think if you're a Dallas cowboy fan, I've always had kind of the same feeling about the Cowboys for the last 25 years. I always say Tony Romo was pretty good. The Cowboys are pretty good. Jason Garrett was pretty good. Mike McCarthy's pretty good. Dach's pretty good. And I'm always right. They always win about nine or ten games, maybe 11, 12. But I never feel that our Super Bowl team. I do believe if C.D. Lamb stays healthy and Tyron Smith, the left tackle stay healthy.

Because Dak's having a good year. And McCarthy's obviously elevating Dak. That if they can stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's, you know, productive, and C.D. Lamb, they can win shootouts. And they're good enough defensively. They'll be a good team playing with a lead because of the pass rush. I do wish they went and acquired like a Derek Henry at the trade deadline. I think what they really miss is they have a lead in the game and I just want to eat the clock. They want to power run it. And they're not really, that's not what they're built to do. They can score. They can score quickly. They can score a lot. But I don't feel like they miss sort of that power offense where they could just hand it off to a Derek Henry and just say six-minute drive, let's pick up first downs, never drop back to throw.

And I think San Francisco can do that. Philadelphia can do that. The better teams Baltimore can do that. The better teams in the league can do it. And I don't think Dallas can. But we have to be honest about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair and reasonable. And Mike McCarthy. has taken Dak Prescott, you know, a couple years ago, pretty ugly injury. Michael Gallup's never been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody promised he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz. They couldn't afford him, Amari Cooper. And you look up today, Dallas is a good football team. And I've been calling them pretty good for 25 years.

I think they're very good. I think they're a very good football team. And I haven't gone pretty good to very good on Dallas many times. But you can't get too caught up. on the fact that their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen, it's the NFL. It's a college football. D.K. Metcalf was a huge matchup problem.

Seattle's got Lockett, their rookie receiver, no offense, a huge body. DJ Metcalf. And I thought their offensive line tonight, you know, created some holes already, especially on the ground. Seattle's got a lot of talent. They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're not going to throw shutouts, right? The defensive rules don't allow it. You're not keeping talented teams and veteran coaching staffs to 17 points every week.

It happens. But I think I'm going to go from pretty good to very good for the Cowboys, and I have not done that much. And Mike McCarthy deserves credit, and I've been critical. But Decks, 29 of 41, 300 yards, 3 DTs, no picks. That's Big Boy Football. How about them Cowboys? David Tepper firing Frank Reich.

I have talked about this and about the low hit rate on quarterbacks in the NFL. And I think a lot of it is the business side of the NFL. All these owners are now billionaires. So they look at a coaching contract where they owe a coach $70 million, $60 million, $50 million. It's a rounding error. It wasn't when owners were making, you know, $25 million a year and had a net worth of $400 million. They would not just write off a coach after 12 games, 13 games. But now these guys are all worth $6 billion.

dollars, $14 billion, $20 billion. David Tepper is, I think, first or second, third richest owner. He's just going to write it off. And so what happens is Bryce Young now gets another coordinator, another staff, another system, and that will stunt the growth of Bryce Young. And I think part of why all these young quarterbacks, Tom Brady talked about the league, football's not as good as it was years ago because there was more stability. It's hard enough to be a quarterback in this league. I mean, Bryce Young, he got a new coach, new system, new coordinator, new

quarterback coach. He's not even through year one. They already got rid of their guy. And so I think when something is hard to do, franchise quarterback play in the NFL, and then you add chaos and change to it makes it twice as tough. So, you know, Tom and Tom and Tom, Brady said, you know, quality of play in the NFL's worse, ownership is richer, more impatient, more meddling, more impulsive, more willing to make radical and quick changes, which makes it harder to quarterback. It doesn't make it harder to be a good running back or a good corner or a talented left tackle. The quarterback is all about coaching and system and momentum and protection and chemistry and choreography. And if you're constantly changing coordinators,

I've said this about Justin Herbert. He's on his third coordinator and his second head coach. What is he in year five? There's a lot of change. And it just makes it really difficult. So I don't think, I think there's a direct correlation to quality of quarterback play and quality of football. You know, in a great example, I mean, I think a really great example of this is C.J. Stroud. Nobody wanted to watch the Texans the last seven or eight years, six or seven years.

C.J. Stroud, now, they play Jacksonville this weekend? Highly entertaining. Highly entertaining. I mean, Russell Wilson gets the right coach. I like watch the Denver Broncos now. Young, tough defense. They can throw the ball. They run.

They power run it. They've got Mims. They've got Jerry Judy. They got Cortland Sutton. They have capable tight ends. I like their running backs. Denver all of a sudden, same roster as last year. But the quality of quarterback efficiency has gone up.

Broncos are now a fun watch. Broncos are like, okay, they can move the chains. They've won five straight. It's all the same players. six weeks ago. It's all the same players last year, except the left tackles here and healthy. But I don't think the quality of plays worse in the NFL.

I think the impatience of owners and the constant influx of change has made it harder to be a franchise quarterback as a young quarterback. And that's what it looks like. Drek, uneven, inefficient. It's not good. But when you get good quarterback play,

Jalen hurts Josh Allen. It's great television. It's fantastic television. You know, I went to watch Bonix, Oregon, play Michael Pennix, Washington. It's one of the best college games I've ever been to. I watched Matt Leiner at USC play Vince Young, Texas years ago, years and years and years ago. It's one of the best college games I've ever seen. So, you know, you can have the world's greatest athletes. New England with Brady, defensive culture, couldn't turn them off. Mac Jones, Bailey, Zappy, unwatchable. Simple as that. Football's not worse. Impatience is. is at an all-time high, top-down. Put pressure on the coach, the quarterback, the coordinators. It's not good, Carolina.

Embarrassing, not good. The Rams right now, believe it or not, are in a dog fight for a wildcard spot in the NFC. And so this was a team Vegas had their over under at about five. And I had said in the offseason, I had to talk myself out of putting them in the plan. because I said if you have a really smart offensive coach and a really talented quarterback and at least one big time weapon, Sean McVeigh, Matt Stafford, Cooford Cup, you know, they had a couple offensive linemen I liked and could tie down. Tyler Higby, you had a couple touchdowns today against Arizona.

I'm like, that's a team battling for the playoffs. But because they had so many young players defensively, you know, my takeaway was they probably won't, they won't stop people. Well, Rahim Morris has been a great defensive coordinator for them. But it's really, the Rams kind of ironically have become the opposite of the chargers. Where the chargers are constantly underachieving, the Rams are the opposite. I mean, if you really look at what this year was outside of Aaron Donald, it is a bunch of kids. There is no money on the defensive side at all.

And they're playing very well. Now, they were physically controlled by the Philadelphia Eagles, a stacked, often veteran roster. Outside of that, they have been in every game this year and have beaten teams swept Seattle and it's just coaching. McVey owns Pete Carroll. Stafford's better than Gino Smith. But the Rams, I mean, even if you go back to their Super Bowl year, it took Matt Stafford. You know, they were struggling a couple of blowout losses. You know, they had Cam Acres who they liked but didn't love. He had a bit of a fumble problem. They almost blew that game in Tampa because of Cam Acre fumbles. You know, it was a team that had Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, but Jalen Ramsey would

bite and get burned over the top a lot. That was a team that was trying to kind of figure and find its way, and they eventually did for a Super Bowl. But I would say for a majority of the year, we did not look at that Rams team as a Super Bowl team. They had some ugly, ugly loss. and they just kind of find ways to win with Sean McVey. Now, he struggles in the regular season against Kyle Shanhan of the 49ers. They just don't match up particularly well with them. But outside of that matchup, I'm watching the Rams this year. The play calling, now, Arizona's not a great team.

Nobody thinks they are. The play calling today, though, I mean, Cooper Cup is not 100%. If you watch the game today, he is his first catch of the game. He's limping. They got Williams backed. Kyron Williams are very nice running back, very shifty, very clever. And that gives them kind of a one-two punch at running back and wide receiver. But this is a team that I would argue doesn't have a single great player in their prime. Aaron Donald's not, Cooper Cup is not. Matt Stafford's not. Rob Havenstein is a good, good right tackle. But he's not in his prime. They don't have a single great player in their prime. Now, go to the Philadelphia Eagles in contrast. Jalen Hertz, great player in his prime. A.J. Brown, great receiver in his prime.

Devonte Smith, excellent player in his prime. Their left tackle, young player, PFF, top-graded left tackle in his prime. That's just on the offensive side. So Philadelphia is stacked and we'll probably win the Super Bowl. If you go to the 49ers. Fred Warner, I think, is in his prime, late prime. But, you know, Bosa in his prime. Debo, in his prime.

Brandon Ayyuk, just moving into his prime. Rams don't have one. So this is a team. There are certain teams in this league, the charges being one, Buffalo another, that kind of find ways to lose. You know, the Rams being a viable playoff team with this roster is, I mean, they've been moving offensive line pieces around, going to get running backs off the street,

needed Pooka Nukuah the fifth round wide receiver early, when Cooper Cup was out to produce offense on the perimeter. 2-2 Atwell was a bust seemingly a wide receiver. He's now semi-viable big play receiver. They are just coaching and drafting and development. And, I mean, in the same building, you've got a team that finds ways to lose and a team that finds ways to win.

There's no way the Rams should be a more viable playoff team this year than the Chargers. Again, Chargers, Justin Herbert and his prime, left tackle Slater in his prime. Those are great players. Derwin James in his prime. Bosa, in his prime. You know, several high-end players. Rams don't have one. They have good players, no great players, though, in the middle, in the meat of their career. You know, I've said before, we're all morally flexible. Okay, we're all morally flexible. We all speed. I drove about 80 getting to my house today, though I don't have a speeding ticket. Um,

you know, if I'd gone through a school district, I wouldn't, but it was all like, you know, just freeways and stuff. And it is interesting the position that I, and you're not a big college football fan, but it's beyond that. That I know Jim Harbaugh's program did something that appears to be deceptive, but it doesn't bother me. And the reason it doesn't bother me is because, and it's probably two or three different reasons. one, it's like taxes. If I write off a bottle of wine, I'm not the first and I'm kind of a sucker if I don't, right? Like at some point, you're like, yeah. And the other thing about it is, I feel deep down, because this has been sourced multiple times, there's been so much cheating going on. And I don't think Harbaugh and Michigan's history indicates they ever bought players or skirted the system. But I sort of feel, like a lot of people that are pissed off are Southern College football fans

who now acknowledge you know, Michigan and everybody can buy players too and now the NIL and transfer portal it's even the playing field out and I think that combined with Harbaugh's unique personality I'm rooting for Jim to not be punished too severely.

Well, I listen, I agree with all almost all of that. And so a few things. one is it's also bad for college football if he's punished super severely because it makes it more likely he leaves college football and Jim Harbaugh is good for college football nobody benefits from Jim Harbaugh going to coach the Bears other than potentially the Bears and so he's good for college football I also don't think there's a lot of people actually outraged by this I think there are people that either at an axe to grind or have their own

purposes served by Michigan being dinged that are acting like they are deeply morally outraged. I'm not acting like there aren't moral outrages in sports. There are sometimes it almost always, to me, involves off-field violence, particularly off-field violence towards people that can't really defend themselves. And I'm not, I've never been one that's, I'm not that outraged by when pre-NIL guys paid for players, I wasn't that outrage. I'm not that outraged by a pro athlete getting in a bar fight. There are different things, though, and everybody knows what they are, where you're like,

no, that's beyond the pale, and it makes me feel kind of scummy rooting for this guy or this team. But this was not a hard one for me. It did not seem like, now there are, and so we all have different lines. If the scandal was, and maybe people will say, Nick, you're just drawing totally arbitrary lines, so be it. If this was the allegation at Michigan, stadium at the big house, they would systematically cut off the ability for the opposing team to communicate, coach to quarterback in key moments. I would think that is a massive violation.

That is to me, and again, I don't know why that is in one category. In 1994, when they set the rule, there were camcorders. It would have been very difficult to get those tickets. It would have taken you a week. And camcorders set up in a room, in an office, people, this is C geek iPhone. It just isn't the same. Exactly right. And it also

didn't, it felt like whenever there is a system that is built around the assumption, there is some level of cheating. That cheating existing doesn't bother me that much. And by that, I mean, the reason college football has

four guys' faces on a placard as a sign, and then they change it up or all these things is because there is the assumption as some of our signs might be stolen at some point. Nobody thinks that's not happening ever. So this one didn't,

I agree with you on this. This one didn't rise to the level of felony. Now, with that said, what did, I don't want to say bother me, but at least I found a little irritating, was Michigan acting like they are this persecuted, you know, totally innocent,

in the woods and Michigan, I understand in sports, but the Michigan versus everybody and this idea that they have been wronged. I don't think Michigan has been wronged. I don't think they're the victim, but I also don't think they victimized anyone on any substantial level. And I think this, I think they're the best college football team in the country. You're right. I don't watch nearly as much as you do, but I watch the biggest games and I'm very familiar with the teams that in the argument for the best college football team in the country. And I know Georgia fans are going to be like we haven't lost in three years. Maybe it should be us.

I get that. I think Michigan has just can beat you in almost every way. I don't think they're going to beat you 4945. I understand that. But their defense is too good, in my opinion, to let a game get to 49.45. And so I just, I'm really impressed by them. I'm really impressed by them. And I'll be surprised if Iowa scores seven points.

I know that games on Fox. Everyone should watch it. But I'll be surprised if I was going seven points. Our judicial system, our judicial system has layers of crimes, like levels of crimes. And this is like speeding. Yes, Jim went too fast and probably flipped the burden of Maserati going 92. At 80 in an Acura, it wouldn't have been outrageous. But it was kind of in your face over the top, if it's true, right?

It was a little, but it's still speeding. It's not, it's not burglary. It's, it, it, this, yeah, no, correct. This is, this is at worse, to use the judicial analogy, the most severe misdemeanor. It does not qualify as like the least severe felony. This is at most like walking out of the supermarket and with something in your, or, you know, doing the self-checkout and being like, oh, I forgot the stuff at the bottom of my cart. I'm sorry.

Like, yeah, they might even give you a court date for it. But it's not really, you probably don't need to hire an attorney. Like, that's to me the level that it was at. And also, that's why your, since your show does your pod and your show does a substantial mind on the college football, you guys talked about it. We, on my pod and on my TV show, we haven't talked about it once. like yeah like it's just not our like i don't think but if it was a true scandal it was we would we don't talk a ton of baseball yeah when the astros thing was going on we at least talked about that and what

it meant and again that felt different maybe this is me sounding like an old man but it felt different because they're the allegation of using of course like high level technology felt like it was different than you know what i mean my my guy at second base can see the sign the catcher giving and we've got a little system built in. It just felt different. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble

stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app, podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

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and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, John Middlekoff, former NFL Scout on the Three and Out podcast for the volume. Let's Start Philadelphia plays about as poorly as they can possibly play. This is the team you used to scout for. They have made sort of an art form out of sluggish wins. It's probably why I think I'd make them the favorite. to win the Super Bowl this year.

I thought they were so, in fact, it was my draft king's bet of the week. I thought Buffalo and four and a half was a great bet. Did you have your doubts in this one? Because it was so sloppy early. Well, I mean, felt like a lock Buffalo win when it was 24 to 14 and they were in complete control. And then it went touchdown, Josh Allen interception, touchdown. And then they got the lead.

And then he just went, well, this is the Philadelphia team we've seen all year. Because I don't think there's any player in the NFL who has looked as poorly in their parts of games and then turn the switch. It looked like an MVP again. And maybe it's, you know, Romo, they had talked about that whatever it is, the deep thigh bruise or the injury that he's dealing with. It's not something that, you know, you just, you got a pain tolerance. Maybe as the game goes on, he gets a little looser. Yeah. Because early on in games, there is no elite player who plays his crappy in the first half as Jalen.

You look up at a bit of stats early on in the first half. He barely had over, he had under 40 yards passing. Yes. And then all of a sudden you look at the end of the game, you're like, I thought the guy was awesome. You know, he's been a crazy roller coaster ride. And it goes back, you know, Josh Allen can't play much better. I mean, John Elway meets Cam Newton today. But, you know, the bills just find ways to lose games this year.

I mean, they had 10 first half penalties. Yeah. I counted two drops. Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, and I'll get into this later. When you watch, like I watch what Sean Payton's doing in Denver, and they just don't make many mistakes. I don't think they're gifted. I think they have some really good players.

Buffalo, I mean, I've compared them to Mike Tyson. Like, they don't, you know, Tyson at the end didn't have a jab, you know, left himself wide open, but he had this vicious power. And so, you know, he swung from the heels. It was a little bit like Tiger coming out of his shoes as a golfer. It just made up if the iron. And I look at Buffalo and I think, listen, you're not going to, there's not going to be a game this year that Philadelphia probably won't play that poorly for a half. I mean, they may, there can be sluggish. And to me, if Buffalo can't win this game, I mean, right now, John, Denver is the hottest team in the league.

Buffalo's, if if the Chargers win tonight, does Buffalo feel like a playoff team to you? They don't because they can't win the games that they have to win. And tonight was a great example of their quarterback can't play any better. Their quarterback really this year, besides some of the primetime games, has been good. You know, statistically, he's top five in every metric. Some would argue he's been a top two or three quarterback. But today's a great example. Their defense let him down.

To me, the final drive that led to the 60-yard field goal and then the final drive that led to the touchdown in overtime, I don't understand why you completely just let them get. easy completions. When all game long, you have been playing normal defense. If they beat it, they beat it. It's a rainstorm. That field is slippery. Okay, if they make, hit some miraculous play, you tip your hat. But to just play, you know, whatever, eight, 10, 12 yards off and give them completion after completion after completion with this offense, they're too potent once they get close. You saw on the final touchdown with Jalen Hertz at any moment he can run it. And obviously they just got in field goal range. And honestly, if it wasn't for a Hall of Fame center,

and making a couple shitty weird plays, you know, the pre-snap that cost them a couple yards, they would have had a 50-yard field goal drove the field pretty easily. So, yeah, I do not think Buffalo is a playoff team. I'm with you, Denver is playing much better on defense, and there's a belief. I don't see how you lose this game if you're Buffalo and have any belief. You know, that's, I think this, you start looking around, you go, what else can we do? Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. I did not do Thanksgiving picks.

I think I would have been about two, two, two, and a lot. I didn't think Dallas would cover the spread, missed on the Lions, but had a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week. I've been taking more favorites, I think is the season ebbs, better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries can overcome banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus five and a half at New England. I do not believe the Patriots want to win.

I believe they want the third pick. How do I know this? because of some of the moves they've made in the secondary with players deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want to beat the Giants. They play. They don't announce the quarterback. I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five and a half, sharp or square.

Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you wouldn't have gone two, two, and one. You would have gone five and up. That's just the way it goes. Number two, on this one, the wise guys are against you. The line was at six. It's moved down to five and a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're not finding wise guys who are saying,

boy, I'm really excited to bet on Bailey Zappy, and I think this team is really primed to do something great. It's fading the chargers. You say this team is, this coaching staff is fighting for its lives. I think it's already over. I think the wise guys think it's over. It's not a team that's in playoff contention. It's not a team that's going to make the playoffs.

It's a team with an incredible amount of talent that continues to not be able to execute. There's no reason for this team to be a six point, now five and a half point favorite on the road. It's not good enough defensively. They haven't proven to be good enough offensively in terms of executing. Keenan Allen has 97 receptions. He's second in the league in receiving yardage. It's the quietest, most irrelevant combination of great stats you're going to see from a wide receiver on a team that doesn't matter. It's not the best number.

I thought the bet of the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles, but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense, not very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm still going to take the Niners. I think they could win by 7 to 10. By the way, Super Bowl champs dating back seven years, on average, have eight blowout wins. Philadelphia has two. We think they're a Super Bowl team because they're very good in these one possession games. So was Minnesota last year.

The Seahawks two three years ago. The Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They win here by seven points, sharper square. Totally sharp. as guys were on this, look, Sunday night, it was moving from two and a half before the Bill's game was over. It was down to San Francisco plus two and a half, San Francisco plus one.

Before the game was over, literally I was trying to make a bet on Sunday night, on the Niners at plus one. And before I could click done, the line move from plus one to minus one. Niners. And then it's gone up to two and a half. Every time it goes up to three, the wise guys take the Eagles a plus three, then the other wise guys take the Niners at minus two and a half. You said something really important. The Niners are blowing teams out. When Debo Samuel and Trent Williams are playing, this team is 8 and 0. They're winning by an average of 21 points.

The team has not played in 10 days. They're as healthy as they've ever been. The Eagles, as you noted, had a lot of snaps. They played 95 snaps in a real. bloody war against the bills in a rainy, rainy Sunday game. They have not had as much time to get healthy. And I was listening to other podcasts like NFL players that talk on these podcasts. They made one of those, Chris Long on his podcast made a really good point. Every hour counts when you are trying to recuperate for the next week. This is not a good spot for the

Eagles. This is why the wise guys have been all over the Niners. Not getting the best number at all. I like the Lions minus four, but I'll take him minus four and a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race for the worst coach in the league. I think they massively underachieve. Derek Carr, you know, I always saw him as a life preserver to the Raiders. Maybe he's just checked down Charlie and not very good. Lions have been beaten now, not feeling good about themselves. I don't think the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take him to cover not the best number sharper. square. Yeah, there's not a consensus on this game. The wise guys lean, saints, it's why the number has sort of stayed where it is because the majority of the action, the public action, is all coming in on the Lions. And we saw it like, and it's been at four basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming in on one side and the line really doesn't move, it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it in place, right? And so you know that the wise guys have been taking the Saints here.

It's not like it's going to be their biggest bet of the week. There are other games that the wise guys love a lot more, but they like the number here not because of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff hasn't played as well, right? And Dan Campbell, who's a brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line. and he's got two really good running backs.

And playing against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game, but it also means potentially less scoring. So it just might not be as big of the margin, which is why the wise guys like the Saints. A game I'm betting solely because of the number, I think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver plus three and a half. I worry about the regression of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in the last month. But they've also created many of those. The thing about Denver is their defense.

now is a story and their run game. They don't make mistakes. They keep it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. C.J. Stroud is still young. He will face pressure. I think it's a field goal game, but the hook, I'd take Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this point in the year, you take the hook if you feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities. Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more. Run game is very solid and both can also be active in the screen game. I'll take Denver in the point sharper square. The coaches you want to bet on the past 20 years, Colin, Mike Vrable, Mike Tomlin,

John Harbaugh, Sean Payton, and before the past couple years, Bill Belichick. Those guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way, Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this, 143 coaches the past 20 years. He's 142nd. as the least profitable coach. So one more reason why you might be right to bet the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're talking about, getting the hook, is the right side here. Wise guys have been a little bit all over this one.

Like, he bet it hard when it was a two and a half for the Texans. It's gotten a three and a half. They've come back a little bit on the Broncos. I think they are just playing the number. If it's below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's above three, they're playing the Broncos. Okay, the Packers are the side, I would imagine at plus five and a half, and the Holmes is a bad cover if it's over like four or five. I do think Kansas City found a little bit of their way in the second half. I think Rishi Rice is starting to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really, really bad. And Kansas City isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I know it's Square. Comment on it. Well, it's square.

It just is. But it's interesting. It's interesting because this is a game. The wise guys have sort of planted a flag in the sand on. And they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats, a lot of the advanced metrics you can look at EPA, things like that. They will tell you that Jordan Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks. And you can also look at what the chiefs have done and take last week against the Raiders with a grain of salt.

they have been terrible in the second half. Second half unders with the Chiefs this year, 11 and O. They are not a team scoring in the second half. So what the wise guys are banking on is an improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring in the second half and the opportunity to keep the game close when they are at home as a big underdog. And especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards the under. And so when you have a game that is going to be low scoring,

the bigger underdog tends to cover. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. Good to see anybody. Good to see you, too, man. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

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