The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Burrow + Lamar Put On “QB Clinic”, Cowboys Are BAD, Bears Are A Hot Mess, Sharp Or Square - NFL Week 10 Betting Advice!

Episode Date: November 9, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! He starts with his reaction to an incredible Thursday Night Football game in which the Ravens beat the Bengals 35-34 and the quarterbacking “clinic” put on by Joe ...Burrow and Lamar Jackson (3:00). Then he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down the week 9 Sunday action. They start with Saquon Barkley’s impact on the Eagles and why he’s transformed their offense (21:00) but have reservations about the Eagles in the postseason. They move on to why the Cowboys are a “bad football team” without many good players (25:00) and try to make sense of the mess that is the Chicago Bears (30:30) Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 10 of the NFL slate. 43:15 - Bucs vs 49ers 46:00 - Cardinals vs Jets 48:30 - Broncos vs Chiefs 51:30 - Texans vs Lions 54:00 - Titans vs Chargers 56:15 - Rams vs Dolphins 59:15 - Bills vs Colts 01:00:45 - Steelers vs Commanders 01:05:30 - Saints vs Falcons   (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:00:38 Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:04 And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I put on 10. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Starting point is 00:01:33 Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:02:10 On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.
Starting point is 00:02:27 Before it was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. All right, basketball season is here, and there's only one place to go for tickets, and you know where that is. Game Time. They have a new feature called Game Time Picks.
Starting point is 00:02:52 Filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats, so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. When I want to go to a basketball game, football game, concert, comedy show, just click on the event. You want to attend. Game Time gives me a seat preview, offers me a great deal. I get the best bang for my buck. Game Time also has the lowest prices guaranteed, or they will credit you 110% the difference. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time picks. Download their app, GameTime app, 90 seconds, create an account. Use the code, Colin. That's me, C-O-L-I-N, 20 bucks off your first purchase. Again, terms apply. Redeem Coates, Collins, C-O-L-I-N, 20 bucks off.
Starting point is 00:03:30 Download game time today. What time is it? Game time. Instant reaction on the Baltimore win over Cincinnati, 35 to 34. Another great Thursday night football game. One of the best games of the year. I had the Bengals plus six tonight for this very reason. These are great rivals, two of the best quarterbacks on display.
Starting point is 00:03:57 Defense is, you know, this is why Kansas City should be favored to win the AFC. Those defenses need a ton of work. In fact, let's talk about going for two. I would have gone for two. Baltimore had scored on four straight drives. Defenses, you know, if you have an average defense, Cincinnati's defense, first half, a lot of energy, guys are feeling great. They've got momentum. But eventually, a bad defense gets more tired.
Starting point is 00:04:25 It gets more beat up. You'll lose a couple players who get banged up. And by the end of the game, you know, Cincinnati's defense was gassed. and they get exposed. A lot of defenses have a really good first quarter. A lot of defenses, you know, when they've got great energy, they're aggressive, offenses and big games can be a little tight, restrictive, conservative, but over the course of a game, these are not great defenses, and both Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson just lit the defenses up. I would have gone for it. First of all, I think aggressive wins. I'm usually a go for it. teams that go to overtime generally historically don't play well the next week, the extra 15 snaps or whatever it is. So I think Zach Taylor made the right call. But, you know, I want to talk about something is one of the things the media does that really frustrates me that they don't consider how society adapts. They overreact to things.
Starting point is 00:05:23 I could give you multiple examples. I was listening to a podcast recently. And the guy was talking about, you know, 100 years ago or more. you know, people thought we were going to run out of food. But, you know, things happen. Fertilization, society adapts, technology adapts. And now more people die of obesity than starvation, right? You know, I remember when I was a kid back in the late 80s, 87, 88, rural roads allowed you to go from 55 to 65 miles an hour. And now it's, it can be faster than that. But there was this, you know, sense from the media, it was car desks. were going to explode, and they did increase initially on rural roads. But over the course of time,
Starting point is 00:06:07 there's technology advances, and manufacturers make better cars and sturdier cars, and society adapts. And the media has to do a better job, in my opinion, of constantly overreacting to stuff. I'll give you another example. During COVID, college football media is like myocarditis. you can get an infection through a virus. It's going to kill college football players. Well, first of all, on average, it's treatable. And on average, the person that gets myocarditis is in their mid-40s, not 19, to 20 years old, in elite shape. So again, it's the overreaction to things that either somebody writes a story in the media and then everybody jumps on board and copies it out of just apathy or laziness.
Starting point is 00:06:56 or they don't do their homework, or they're just overreacting and not considering there's just a lot of smart people out there, whether it's on the processing of food, the creation of food, whether it's manufacturing better cars, whether it's safety measures and vaccines during COVID. People figure stuff out. And the reason I bring this up, we had another great Thursday night game. We've had multiple great Thursday night games. This is one of the best games of the year. Minnesota and the Rams was a good Thursday night game. San Francisco and Seattle. Tampa Bay, Atlanta went to overtime. Fantastic game. As good as an NFC South game can get, Baker, Mayfield, and Kirk Cousin is showing off. I remember about four years ago, and the media was going through a weird time. There were some cultural changes. It's when the word woke started being used a lot. And, you know, it can be overused and was overused, but it does exist. And the media was just on this thing that Thursday night football is. It was unfair to players.
Starting point is 00:07:54 And it was like, I talked to NFL players, and they liked Thursday night football. You didn't hit that week. It was a real light week of practice. And then, you know, you're off after the game until, like, the following Wednesday or Tuesday. So a lot of guys, it's like a second buy. A lot of guys on the West Coast would go to Hawaii or Mexico. A lot of guys in the East Coast would go to the Bahamas. They treated it as a second buy week.
Starting point is 00:08:18 And so this idea that it was too much for NFL players, these are. These are 25-year-old world-class athletes that spend six and seven figures on their bodies. They've got great training staffs around them. They're going to be okay. And I think, again, today, did these teams look fatigued and tired? Did they look overwhelmed by playing a Thursday night football game? Of course not. And again, it's just – and I'm part of the media, and I've overreacted before.
Starting point is 00:08:48 But I thought what you saw tonight, well, these Thursday night games, they like to get these divisional rival games that are close. They don't have to travel too far on a Thursday. They want the game to be regional or divisional. And this was a perfect Thursday night game. Great quarterback play. Two teams that know each other. Two, you know, I mean, I think Zach Tater is a smart, clever offensive coach. And I think John Harbaugh is great. And the teams, you know, clearly Baltimore looked a little off early. But, you know, they adapt. They're pro athletes. I thought it was a classic illustration of basically Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow having to overcome a terrible defense. And I mean, Baltimore isn't great either, but through the years it has been pretty consistently
Starting point is 00:09:36 solid. Now, the Ravens have really poured more money into their offense. Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, they just went and got Deontay Johnson. So they're pouring more of the money in offense, which is where NFL teams should spend their money. But I never worry about Baltimore or being cheap or trying to save a nickel here or Cincinnati, that's the Brown family's history. So I just feel like, you know, Joe Burrow, this is not the NBA, he's not going to demand a trade, but I do think he's been perpetually pissed this year because he's putting up numbers like tonight. I mean, Jamar Chase had 250 yards and three touchdowns. I mean, they did everything they could possibly do.
Starting point is 00:10:14 I thought there was a penalty, obviously in the two-pointed version that was uncalled, not called, which is unfortunate. And I, you know, I'm not going to blame that. Listen, when you give up the points and the yards that Cincinnati did tonight, you were hardly perfect. Officials can miss calls. And I've always thought in the NBA or in the NFL, at the end of games, officials are best served swallowing the whistle.
Starting point is 00:10:43 I mean, one of the things I noticed in the NFL, and I'm sure you've noticed this, is over the course of the last eight to 10 to 12 years, the amount of contact that is allowed on the perimeter is insane. You could call pass interference on every play. And I think maybe it's the Belichickian influence on the sport where, you know, the Patriots just, they were physical, they grabbed, they touched, they'd wear the same color gloves as the team they were playing's uniform. And they were just, it was constant conflict and touching. You're not going to call pass interference in every play. And so the reality over time, it's been normalized on the, edges that you just, you get a grab. Now, you can't put your arm around a guy, but you can call
Starting point is 00:11:24 pass interference constantly in this league. And Baltimore was flagged for it tonight several times, personal fouls and pass interference. On a play like that, good luck on the road getting that call. And again, it's not like Cincinnati played flawless football. Their defense was a mess. Their tackling was bad. I do love this about Lamar Jackson. And I've said this before and I'll say it again. The guy was 290 yards, four touchdowns, trailed by 14 and the third. One of the things I love about Lamar, and this is certainly the case with a Josh Allen and a Patrick Mahomes, you just don't know when they're trailing. If you watch them play, they don't play any different when they're trailing and when they're leading. And I've always thought the line in this league,
Starting point is 00:12:03 the difference between the haves and the have-nots in quarterback play is the average quarterbacks in this league press when they're behind, when you know they have to throw, Gino Smith, good player, but they don't feel the same. You're watching Lamar Jackson, down by 14 at half, in the third quarter, excuse me, it doesn't matter. You can't tell. He doesn't care. Totally unaffected. Doesn't change his body language, his composure, his aggressiveness. He's just such a special all-time athlete. And this nonsense that he's not a pocket quarterback, which thankfully, people have moved away from that. He's exceptional. He does a really good job, too. he's got a little bit of a different throwing style.
Starting point is 00:12:44 So did Philip Rivers. You know, some guys just have a little bit of a different, you know, Justin Herbert looks like he could be the NFL logo. He's got that perfect stance. You know how like Jerry West was the NBA logo, the late Jerry West. Justin Herbert, if the NFL ever did a player logo, it would be a quarterback. And Justin Herbert literally could be the logo. He's got the perfect long stride.
Starting point is 00:13:03 But a lot of these guys have kind of different deliveries. Aaron Rogers sometimes throws off his, he's not even on the ground. So Lamar's got a little bit of a different style. It's a little bit more of a flip. I think Kyler Murray's got one of the prettiest throws, throwing motions in the league. But it just works. And he has an ability,
Starting point is 00:13:22 Lamar has an ability to, I think it's body confidence that he can stare all over the field and then just in a quarter second, suddenly look over to the sideline where they camp a guy and make a beautiful throw of eight to 12 yards. He's just, he's really got a sense of composure and self-awareness
Starting point is 00:13:40 accuracy. And, you know, he and Joe Pearl, Joe Burrell put on a clinic tonight. It was an absolute clinic from both quarterbacks. And again, these Thursday night football games, they're just fantastic. And the only thing I don't like about Thursday night football, two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL won't play Sunday. And that's the downside to, you know, if you do Thursday night football and you do Monday night football. So, you know, Monday night, Tua and Matt Stafford are playing. And Thursday night, it's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrell. So four of probably the 12 best quarterbacks in the league are not playing Sunday. You know, so, you know, I can only take so much Will Levis.
Starting point is 00:14:19 Sorry, that's the only knock to me on these Thursday night football games. Seven years ago, these games, six years ago, the games were awful. I mean, it was like you felt like you were getting Jacksonville and Steelers were wearing bumblebee uniforms. Now they, you know, they're putting up an almost every Thursday night football game this year. I think it's the best Thursday night schedule. You've got a star quarterback. Tonight you had two.
Starting point is 00:14:39 And if you didn't enjoy that, I don't, you know, I like defense occasionally, but if you didn't enjoy that, like, it's not your, it's not your sport. That was just great. Great. Also, had Cincinnati plus six. Didn't know if I was going to win that at one point, but I don't think less of Baltimore because it's close. These division rival games, you get, you get four, five, six points. If you have a capable quarterback in a division rivalry game, take the points. Joe Burrow is one of the, I think he's 5 and 0 this year as an underdog against the spread on the road. This year, Joe Burrow. He's a great, he's now 17 and 3 as Joe Burrow as a three-point or more underdog as an NFL quarterback. 17 and 3 now. The Emirates NBA Cup is here. You can win big getting in on the action at Draft King Sportsbook.
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Starting point is 00:16:49 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:17:11 I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.
Starting point is 00:17:30 This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Cliverts Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.
Starting point is 00:18:01 Listen to the Cliverts Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or we're wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:18:39 or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:18:58 Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line.
Starting point is 00:19:21 We also have AIDS on the table right now, so... Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.
Starting point is 00:19:58 Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, We get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Starting point is 00:20:22 Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keir Gaines, as we have. have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. All right, John Middilkoff, it's time for our hour plus on a Sunday. He is the former NFL scout
Starting point is 00:20:54 for the Philadelphia Eagles, three and out podcast. Let's start with a team you're near and dear to the Philadelphia Eagles. So they did it on the ground in the air. They beat the Jags 2823, although Jacksonville with a massive late-game comeback. Trevor Lawrence, one got a little loose on him. He threw a pick in the end zone. You know, my takeaway on this is, I'll go back to saying this. Jalen's not making the mistakes, and Barclay, Sequin Barclay's absolute, with Christian McCaffrey not playing yet,
Starting point is 00:21:24 Berkeley's the best running back in the league. And I think what Jalen hurts as they win today, my take is they've gotten him out of the position where I don't feel like he's ad-libbing or out of control. Like I thought Jordan Love today for the Packers was out of control multiple times. I kind of think Philadelphia's figured out kind of the way to use, Jalen. What do you see? Well, I think Sequan's definitely changed their team.
Starting point is 00:21:48 I mean, he's been him and Derek Henry. You talk about additions this offseason, those two guys. I mean, Derek Henry was probably a Hall of Fame player before this. Now he cemented himself. I mean, there's no one's ever questioned Seekwant's talent. I mean, what would Penn State do to have that guy right now on their team? I mean, they would have an offensive weapon. But to me, I mean, the only reason that game was close was Siriani and Kellyn.
Starting point is 00:22:09 I'm not quite sure what was going on there with some of the play calling. Yeah. They, instead of kicking a field goal, they didn't get that. Decided not to do the tush push, and they roll him out, and he's got nowhere to go. Like right now, their offense, I mean, A.J. Brown, which is a pretty big deal, not maybe in this game, but I guess they play the Cowboys next week. So not in that game either, but in two weeks against Washington, his presence for them to beat really good teams is a must have. but when you're playing a team like today Devante Smith, what a draft pick. I mean, I thought, wait, this guy's going to be 175 pounds.
Starting point is 00:22:39 I didn't think he would last in this league. How about his one-handed touchdown catch in the back of the end zone? So you add Sequin to him, I mean, the guy that had the game-winning interception to Kobe Dean. I mean, they have a lot of young defensive players. The last couple weeks, Nolan Smith has been all over the quarterback. Like, I trust Vic Fangio. To me, it just gets down to Siriani,
Starting point is 00:23:01 who, if they had lost today, Colin, to Doug Peterson and the Jags who they had fired, do you know, I mean, M. B'd would have been let off the hook because it would have been a Syria, you cannot lose that game. And it got weird. Obviously, the freak Sequin Fumble, but that's a little too close for comfort given how well their top guys were playing. Oh, yeah, I mean, Barclay was great. Jalen went like 18 to 24, 230 yards, no, you know, no interceptions. The receivers that were on the field. were excellent. They actually, I mean, they had 450 plus yards of offense, 6.5 yards per play. They were great on third down. They dominate time of possession. And you look up and you're like, you're at home and it's 28, 23. It's- Well, they were up 22-0, right? It looked like they were going to blow them out 40 to 10 or something. Yeah, I just, I just feel like, I kind of feel like this is the rare instance. And I felt this a couple of years ago with Detroit, but I've come to terms with Ben Johnson, the coordinator for the Lions, I didn't trust. I really didn't trust Dan Campbell. I do now. I think he has grown. I think he's a little less emotional now.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I also think he realizes he's no longer hunting. He's being hunted. They're the favorite. I think like today, they got a lead. They got real smart. They got real conservative. It was really, really smart Lions football. I feel like Suryani's like Dan Campbell a couple years ago, he's still trying to prove himself. I want to show you guys how smart I am. And then when you make mistakes, like yelling at the crowd and get your hand slapped by the owners, then you kind of double down on, I want to show how smart I am. And I just think with Dan Campbell, I've seen growth. I do think he's a better, more mature coach today. And with Siriani, I think they're going to get to the playoffs. And I think they're going to have all these weapons and outplay people. And I think they're
Starting point is 00:24:55 going to lose to a really smart, efficient team. Atlanta beats the Cowboys, 20, to 21. So if you didn't watch this game, I could sum it up with the multiple false starts, the nine penalties for Dallas, too many men on the field on a fourth down. Atlanta basically got out rushed,
Starting point is 00:25:15 out past, but Dallas was so bad on fourth down, so many pedilies, so inefficient. And Kirk Cousins just go out, goes out, 19 to 24, doesn't make any big mistakes. Like, Atlanta's not physically impressive, but Atlanta's really
Starting point is 00:25:31 efficient because they brought Kirk Cousins in, who just doesn't make a lot of mistakes. He gets you in and out of plays. When I watched Dallas today, Mike McCarthy's frustration with, I mean, when you have Dak Prescott, and you're a veteran team, you can't have false starts, illegal motions. Like, I feels like to me that is so much on the quarterback. Now, he left and Cooper Rush came in. But I, you know, I had said before the year, this was one of my, I guess I'm actually wrong on this. I said Dallas won't make the playoffs. It'll be Philadelphia and Washington in that
Starting point is 00:26:04 division. It will begin a slight regression. John, they may be a bottom four team in the league, and I'm dead serious. They're better than the Raiders because of DAC, hell and Cooper Rush. I think they're better than Carolina, probably better than New Orleans now. They weren't in week two. Dallas is a bad football team without a lot of good players. Yeah, I thought coming into this week, we were going to learn, like, are they just going to end up sucking all season and being a five or six win team? Or are they going to have a little heart in battle and, you know, at the end of the year, B8 and 9, but have shown some metal throughout the year, I think they're headed toward five or six wins now.
Starting point is 00:26:42 Yeah. And today, didn't it symbolize before the game even kicked off, they left Zeke back at home? Yeah. All I had heard from Cowboys people is, listen, we know he doesn't have as much, but the leadership, the camaraderie, the camaraderie, him and Dak are close. And then these stories about he never shows up on time. he's disgruntled, it's like, well, then why is he on the team? And is that a little, I'm not putting this all on DAC, but isn't that DAC's one of his best friends? Like, so what,
Starting point is 00:27:09 what do we got going on there? And then as the game goes on today, it was a reflection of they don't have that much talent. Oh, no. I mean, how often today, even on like just random innocuous plays, Bejohn and Space out in the flat and three guys would whiff and he'd get eight yards that should have been one. Listen, John, on a fourth and one, they have so little talent in the backfield. On a fourth and one, they had to use deception on a quick, on a, like a jet sweep to CD Lamb. Now it worked. Yeah. It worked about 20 minutes later, same play. But on fourth and one, with a very strong quarterback, Zach Martin, one of the great guards ever, they had to get clever and tricky. They have no run game. One of the easiest
Starting point is 00:27:51 predictions anybody could have made going into this season, that Dallas would have the worst running back room in the league. I mean, we watch Zeeke in New England. He can't, he's done. He's done. it's over. They made no moves. They, they, they, it's, it's, it's remarkable. Now, I'm not saying Derek Henry would be as good as we've talked about in Dallas as Baltimore. You start looking at, I said before the season, if C.D. Lamb twisted an ankle, this is the worst offense in the league. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, I watched them today and I'm like, they, they, it was just all a cotton candy yards. I mean, Atlanta was so much smarter, more efficient, good on third down. I was playing golf the other day with a diehard cowboy fan.
Starting point is 00:28:33 This guy has been to countless games over the last 30 years. And I asked him, do you think Dak Prescott's better than Tony Romo? And you were always one of Tony's biggest defenders. Yeah. And he said, you know, I would have told you four or five years ago, yes. But at this point in time, you can't watch these games. Up until Tony's back went, he was a more dynamic playmate. Absolutely. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:28:53 And in 21, 22, and even last year, those teams, were so good. I mean, in 21 and 22, the Cowboys were really good. I mean, they had a home playoff game. They were toe to toe with the Niners in the second round. And there, I mean, Dak didn't just have one bad play. Like, he was atrocious through most of those games. So I think, listen, this is not his fault. You know, in terms of the pie chart, 100% if they go six or seven or maybe five wins. But he has kind of crumbled. Like, he has not been an elevator. Talk about trailers and tractors, clear where he falls. And honestly, today was just an embarrassing day for the organization.
Starting point is 00:29:33 Yeah. I mean, I think Mike's hands were on it, Jerry's hands were on it. Because the Zeke thing to me symbolizes, I thought that moment, I thought the bears benching the guy for like two series. Like, this is not Little League or high school. We're not teaching life lessons. You either leave him at home and make him inactive to show like this will never be tolerated or you just started.
Starting point is 00:29:53 Like, this is a business. You know, we're trying to win or lose. I would have made him inactive to show everyone, just like the Cowboys did. Zeke, you're not showing up. But there's no middle ground. This isn't high school football where it's like, you're going to sit out the first series or two. Like, that to me is so dumb.
Starting point is 00:30:09 I mean, that's embarrassing at the highest level. It's just that's why, you know, certain teams lose and obviously the same teams consistently win over and over. A game today that I thought was important and symbolic, Arizona crushes the Bears 29 to Kyler Murray barely had to throw. There was a lot of, I mean, they led 29, 21 to 9 at half. I think the bigger story is Caleb Williams was ineffective. The offensive line was overwhelmed.
Starting point is 00:30:41 The offensive line, I've talked about this so many times, John, defensive coaches, and offensive lines are a problem. The Bears, Caleb's been outplayed badly by Kyler Murray. and Jaden Daniels the last two weeks. He's dancing around in the back, getting sacked by Arizona. Offensive lines gotten worse. And I watched today, there was a safety on the Bears at one point as they lost 29 to 9. There wasn't once we got to the second quarter, there wasn't a minute I thought Chicago could win. I think Caleb is clearly, even though Bow Nicks got rolled today, Baltimore at home,
Starting point is 00:31:25 much better. That was one of the easiest bets of the year, taking the Ravens minus eight, nine. Bo Nix looks like he's got it in our control. I mean, there's, I think he really looks like for the personnel they have, obviously, Jayne. He actually, he actually didn't play terribly today. No, no, he wasn't. He just, I mean, they don't have seven guys who would start for the Ravens. They have Patrick Sertan, maybe a safety, that's about it. But when I look at Caleb right now, they average three point four yards of play. It is screaming to get rid of Matt Eber Fluse. I mean, I just thought, whole game I'm like, this, it just doesn't work. He doesn't have the right coordinator. It's a mess in Chicago now. Well, if I had told you by the middle of the season that if the bears called up the
Starting point is 00:32:07 Washington commanders and said, before the season, and said, would you trade Jaden Daniels straight up for Caleb Williams and the commanders would laugh at them and hang up the phone, you would have said the bears have serious issues because two things can be true. Today was an embarrassing day for Eberfluse, but so was last week. And so was this offseason when it was pretty clear. You're putting this guy into a lame duck situation. This is not a McCarthy that at least, listen, I know he's under his last year, but he has a long resume of success. And he coaches the quarterback who you're going to pay $200 million to. This is a head coach. He's a good defensive coach, never won anything. And you have no faith that he's going to do it. And now you have to fire him a year in. But I think the bigger picture, you see it with Trevor Lawrence. I mean, they brought in Doug. And this. is just not going well for them. Relative the hype, these things can snowball and get out of hand fast. And you invested, actually you didn't because you made the trade, but you got this player. You chose them over these other players, specifically Jaden, who, again, long way to go.
Starting point is 00:33:10 I mean, ideally, they both have 15-year careers. Right. Jayden Daniels is currently one of the best players in the NFL. No question. Like, he's one of the best players in the NFL. It looks totally under control. And Caleb looks like a mid-round pick, four-stained. to start because a quarterback got injured in the preseason.
Starting point is 00:33:26 He makes some plays, but he misses a lot of stuff that, listen, we saw making college, and this gets back to people that were questioning him. He can freelance and get a little willy-nilly. And that doesn't really work in the NFL. And you see him just get peppered. He's not comfortable in the pocket. The coaching staff's terrible. I do think that Tyreek Stevenson benching was just a joke.
Starting point is 00:33:48 And if I'm I'm ever-flus, I wouldn't want him inactive. I'd want to just start him. But if you're Ryan Poles, you're not going anywhere. You want to show all these other guys that, like, the standards are high. They're in no man's land, right? They really are. And I doubt they would fire. I mean, that's a fireable game.
Starting point is 00:34:04 I don't expect the bears to fire him. But, like, these last two weeks, I mean, they were thoroughly outplayed the week before, too, right? It was, you know, I know the Hail Mary, but they were worked that game. Like, we know before they even get to the tough stretch of their season, like, this ain't a playoff team. Like, this team, I mean, Arizona, to me, is like a. fringe wildcard team just beat the living piss out of them. I just can't take the bear seriously anymore. No, and this was supposed to be the two-game stretch, Arizona and New England next, where they had a shot, right, to make up some ground before they go into Detroit, Minnesota, San Francisco,
Starting point is 00:34:38 Green Bay. You know, I think there's, I've always said there's one or two things in football that are undervalued, and yet there are things we know are valuable. I think a great offensive coordinator or great offensive coach, you're better on third down. You're better on offensive line. You're better at drafting offensive personnel. I mean, the Rams just figure out ways to mix and match their offensive line. They're in a wild one with the Seahawks today, but they're still, you know, ham and egg in it in the interior or the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:35:11 These defensive coaches, Chicago's offensive line last year felt like an ascending group. You had your tackles, little soft in the middle. It is a mess with Caleb Williams mobility. It's a mess today. So I just think you get to a point where I don't think people understand the difference between a really smart offensive coach and an average defensive coach. It is a touchdown to 10 point difference a game. I do think to that moment last week on the Hail Mary was reflective of their head coach, right?
Starting point is 00:35:49 Because let's take a couple of top defensive coaches. right. Tomlin, John Harbaugh, special teams guy, but he also a DB guy. You could never envision that play with that player happening, taunting the crack. Like that just would never happen with the Ravens and Steelers in that moment. So to me, that reflected, let alone, like, he's been pretty good on defense. Today he loses his best defensive player. James Connor looks like Walter Payton against him. I mean, it was like, you guys are that dependent on one guy.
Starting point is 00:36:18 And offensively, I always talk about, like, defensive guys, nothing about offense. I mean, they know how to stop offenses, but they don't know, they're not calling the plays. They're not in their coaching. Brady, Brady made, Brady made fun of Belichick, not even understanding the terminology of offense. Yeah, it's just, it's so I, the bears, honestly, this goes back to what, 10 months ago, 11 months ago, when they knew and they tried to have their cake and eat it to and keep their fingers crossed. And now they're going to have to fire this guy and it sets the whole clock off when they could have just started at scratch. Maybe Ben Johnson would have been interested.
Starting point is 00:36:57 Maybe they could have hired Vrable and just had a fresh runway. Now you derail everything because one thing you would say is like, well, Iber flu is kind of good on defense. So now you get a new guy. It just, you know, upsets the Apple card, which needed upsetting in January. I mean, and today was, today was really bad because coming off that loss, I thought two teams had huge bounce. Like to me, the Ravens of last year.
Starting point is 00:37:21 year, blow the team out. And they did today. So it's like, okay, you know, the Browns game, weird outlier, James got hot, throw that away. The Ravens are the real deal. And the Bears, like, okay, if this is going to be a wildcar team, they come into Arizona, even if it's tight, Arizona's not easy, you win the game. I live out here. I would imagine that half the stadium was Bears fans. Yeah. So it's a big deal for them. And they got, like you said, that game was over before it even started. They got shalacked. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:37:56 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:38:20 A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,
Starting point is 00:38:46 creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:39:22 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:39:50 or wherever you get your point. podcast. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me. Not. just because of crack.
Starting point is 00:40:24 I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:43 For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get Your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month,
Starting point is 00:41:01 I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.
Starting point is 00:41:20 And we don't know when we've done enough Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:41:36 And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search learn the hard way and listen now.
Starting point is 00:42:00 All right. I am feeling good about my picks this week. I've had a couple of weeks I like. I've also three of the last four weeks had good college bets. By the way, we don't do those here. Chad Millman co-host of the favorites, all odds provided by draft kings. You don't get a freebie very often,
Starting point is 00:42:17 but I feel like I'm getting one this week. Tampa Bay, short week, all beat up against the Niners team. off a buy in a bad mood, Christian McCaffrey getting back. I mean, all the things you'd want. Short week, overtime, other team off a buy. This feels like the rare, thank you, draft kings. I'll make the deposit. I'll buy some jet skis tonight.
Starting point is 00:42:45 Sharper square. Totally sharp. The wise guys have loved this one. It was at five and a half, got up to six, got up to six and a half. Now it's settled in around six. I will not be surprised if this gets up to six and a half. What's interesting about this game is, you know, we talk all the time about the pro-Joe split, right? The professionals on one side, the amateurs on another.
Starting point is 00:43:12 Normally, what you get is the Joe's, the amateurs, like the big, fancy favorite. In this case, the Joes have liked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have actually been winning amateurs a lot of bets this season. And because they look so good in overtime against the chiefs and the Niners have struggled, the Joe's have been coming in on the box. And the wise guys, for your point, they like Christian McCaffrey coming back. They like the Niners coming off a buy. They like having to fade the box traveling back home in a short week after overtime to play a really physical and healthy San Francisco team. And there's a couple trends that are worth looking at and a couple of matchups that are
Starting point is 00:44:00 worth looking at. Number one, the past decade. Favorites on the road off of a buy, 60% against the spread. Favorites of five and a half or more off a buy on the road, 70% against the spread. What that tells you is that when a team is good and they're off the buy and they go on the road in their favorites, they tend to overperform. And then you got the matchup. Everyone loves this Bucks team, but they are terrible against the run.
Starting point is 00:44:27 And if Christian McCaffrey is back, all of a sudden you've got a much bigger advantage against the weakest part of the Bucks defense. Wise guys are with you, Simon. Simon. Wise guys are with you, Colin. I was thinking about my BFF Simon 100% on the Niners. Another game I like a lot is Arizona Cardinals plus one. Now, usually a star quarterback with extra time to prepare would put me on. in a good mood. But I think extra time helps for excellent coaching staffs, you know,
Starting point is 00:45:00 dynamic offenses in their prime. The Jets have an interim defensive coach. They're on their second play caller. There is no proof that extra time means anything to this team. And Arizona at home now getting a point, I think people, I know what you're thinking. People are getting really high on Arizona. This team beat San Francisco and Santa Clara. They got really good offensive players. And this is getting to the point in the year when defensive players, I mean, the Jets defense,
Starting point is 00:45:30 isn't that good. It's just not that good. I'm going to take Arizona plus one, sharper square. All right. Well, it's square. And let's not use the Niners win as a barometer of what this team is, right? Because the Niners in that game,
Starting point is 00:45:47 they didn't have a kicker. They literally could not kick a field goal. when they were in the red zone, they had to keep running it. And one of those times, even though they were ahead, their running back fumbled the ball and it sent the Cardinals
Starting point is 00:46:02 towards a win in which they had about a 5% chance of winning the game in that exact moment. The Cardinals have won three in a row. They're in first place in the AFC West, ahead of the Rams, ahead of the Seahawks,
Starting point is 00:46:16 ahead of the Niners. There is a lot of glow on this team right now. And it is a team, to its credit, it has come back from double-digit downs in a couple of games, and then it destroyed a Bears team, which you and I both know,
Starting point is 00:46:29 like, they were primed to be destroyed. I know I listened to your show. I know how you feel about Ibrough Fluse. I know the stat you've been drumming about him on the road. I agree with you as a Bears fan. Terrible coach. That was the exact spot for the Cardinals to look dominant, right? But the Jets, with a mini-buye, getting healthier, no pressure on Aaron Rogers.
Starting point is 00:46:54 I don't mean shoulders. I mean, the Cardinals cannot get any pressure. They are the worst in the league. That is tailor-made for Aaron Rogers to bring this team back down to Earth. The wise guys like the Jets. The line is moved. The Jets were underdogs. The Jets are now favorites.
Starting point is 00:47:12 Okay, you're not getting the best of the number. I like the Broncos, seven and a half, plus seven and a half. plus seven and a half against the chief. So Kansas City, short week overtime. Kansas City is not a team that blows people out. Denver, meanwhile, faced what teams do, and they realize it's a tsunami. Oh, let's go to Baltimore and play an Angry Ravens team. They hammered last year the Niners, the Lions, like teams that were healthy at the time.
Starting point is 00:47:39 Miami, going to Baltimore shouldn't even count. It'd be just like not any other place in the league. No team humiliates more teams than Baltimore in a bad mood at home. It doesn't matter. San Francisco. I mean, McVeigh lost last year. I thought it was this best coach game of the year when they lost at Baltimore. I thought that was when I bought the Rams.
Starting point is 00:48:00 It's like, oh, they didn't get crushed. Okay, so don't just wipe that away. Denver's not a terrible team. Kansas City is not a great team. Division rivals. One team's humiliated. one team on a short week in overtime. I thought it was a gift at nine.
Starting point is 00:48:17 I still liked Denver seven and a half, sharper square. It was a gift at nine. It was a gift at nine and a half at nine at eight and a half. At eight. Seven and a half, that's where you stop. Take it at seven and a half. Do not take it at seven. Of course, the wise guys are going to be on a huge, and in this case seven is huge.
Starting point is 00:48:38 Division, Road, Underdog. those tend to favor in terms of ROI playing the underdog. The Chiefs, when Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of three or more, he has a losing record against the spread. They're not that kind of team, and I know you've talked about this as well, they are not a blow-em-out team right now. Maybe they're going to get there with DeAndre Hopkins, with Travis Kelsey, getting more into the flow
Starting point is 00:49:05 and them understanding who they are offensively now. But they are not there yet. And in this 14-game win streak, they're beating teams by five or six points a game, right? So they are not the kind of team. And especially in the second half, they slow it down. They get leads in the first half, and then they slow it down in the second half. The Broncos have a great defense.
Starting point is 00:49:24 And you can say everything you just said about the Ravens, all the wise guys believe as well. They went on the road, they got throttled. The first play of the game, Bow Nix, throws an interception, off of a receiver's hands, and everything sort of went wrong for them the rest of the day. but this is a team that continues to grind and play to the whistle and play to the end of the game. I know there's cliches, but in this case they're true because Bo Nix is being treated as if he's a third or fourth year quarterback, not a first year quarterback. So the expectation is that the Broncos will stay in this game and keep the back door open and the chiefs will allow them to keep the back door open. Also, one thing I would say, past 20 years, teams that are off of a 20 plus blowout loss, which the Broncos are, 57% against spread.
Starting point is 00:50:12 So there are times when I just don't think teams are going to play perfect. I'm getting three and a half Texans at home against the Lions. And Detroit has, this is not a game that you have circled as a Lions fan. You have big games coming up against, you know, in. division teams. This is kind of one of those weird, hey, we got to go on the road and play the Texans. For the Texans, they look at Detroit and think, this is like playing the Chiefs. This is, we got to get right. Three and a half. I think you come out of a divisional game with Green Bay. You really are feeling it. I think Detroit's better, but the better team
Starting point is 00:50:51 doesn't know is when. Sometimes it's the home team where you feel like there's real urgency to make a statement. I like the Texans plus three and a half here, Sharper Square. Yeah, the numbers move from four and a half to three and a half. And I think that the wise guys are with you here, but three will be the tipping point. If it gets to three, the wise guys will come in on the Lions. And we've talked about this.
Starting point is 00:51:17 The beauty of the Lions is that their strength is in their offensive line. and for lack of a better term, physical travels in football, right? Running backs can have a bad game depending on the surface. Quarterbacks can play better outdoors than indoors. Offensive lines, all you're doing is lining up across the guy in front of you and beating him up. And the lions do that better than any offensive line in the league. I think that is why, you know, last week, all the professional. letters were all over the Packers against the Lions. They thought the Lions are going to be outside.
Starting point is 00:51:59 Jared Goff has a bulky ankle. This is the spot where you're going to fade a team that everybody had been making money on even as big favorites because they thought we thought we'd see the letdown spot in a really physical game. It didn't happen. Like the physical travel. So I do worry about the Texans being able to out physical the Lions, especially we don't know what's happening with Will Anderson. And in that Jets game against the Texans, when Will Anderson went out, the Texans were dominating. As soon as he's out, the Jets took that game over.
Starting point is 00:52:36 So it is, it's the right side. The wise guys are playing it. It's not my favorite, though. Here's a game where I understand the hook, and so people won't bet this side. But there are teams that I think get healthy or. get right and the market's not quite adjusted. I think the chargers are going to be a problem this point forward. When you looked at that receiving court last week and all of a sudden, you're like, oh, it's not a huge weakness now. It's actually okay with the development of
Starting point is 00:53:11 Quentin Johnson, Ladd-McConkey, Palmer, Disley, Hearst, J.K. Dobbins, you're like, oh, shit, they're kind of right now. I think they're going to start reading. stealing off some kind of punishing dominant wins. Herbert now is healthy. I think the Chargers, even at 7 and a half, are a little undervalued. I really do. I know it's not sharp. I would take the Chargers comfortably over the Titans for the record.
Starting point is 00:53:41 When we've seen the Titans play good teams, it's fools gold. Like they can hang with bad teams. I've seen them overwhelmed against well-coached teams. I know it's square, Chargers 7 and a half, what say you? Yeah, it's totally square. The only side to take here is the Titans. Either don't bet it or take the Titans. I'm not betting this game.
Starting point is 00:54:06 I'm a huge Chargers backer. Last week, everybody was saying the Browns are cresting. You got to get the Browns right now. James is back. And I looked at that game, and we talked about this on the favorites, several times because it made no sense to me. The Chargers were two-point favorites on the road. And if you break down that handicap,
Starting point is 00:54:30 chargers should have been two-point favorites on the road. They have the better quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. They have a really good physical offensive line. We just talked about the Lions. I see the Chargers built in the same mold as the Lions as we build the next 12, 24, 36 months with what Harbaugh is trying to do there. I love this Chargers team.
Starting point is 00:54:52 I think seven and a half points is too high. There's too much quirkiness that can come into play in these games when the number is that high. And there's a hook involved. Okay, here's a game. And I hate to do this because I really, really like the Rams and their young defense a lot. It was plus two and a half, and I really liked Miami at two and a half. Now it's down to one. So I think at one I would take the Rams,
Starting point is 00:55:25 but there's a game every week where I'm like, tell me what to bet. I really, I think the Rams are so talented defensively. They have not missed on a draft pick, a defensive draft pick in two years. One of their safeties is an undrafted rookie from Tennessee, the volunteers. He has four picks.
Starting point is 00:55:45 The other kid from Miami is a pick six kid. I mean, like, they're hitting on everybody, verse the two Florida State guys, young. I mean, everyone, they all, Kobe Turner from Wake Forest, they all are good. They're all better than their draft spot. I want to take the Rams so bad, but that number's moving around.
Starting point is 00:56:05 It tells me the Sharps were on Miami, right? The Wise guys have been all over Miami. And I'll tell you, you know, you and I, when we did our Sunday show at ESPN, we always had a pick where we went against the Wise. guys. And we called it the executive decision. And you just nailed the game that is the executive decision for me. I love the Rams. I feel like the Rams. I bet the Rams last week as favorites against the Seahawks, a miracle cover. But Matthew Stafford, there are quarterbacks in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:56:40 You think about, okay, it's the end of the game. I need this guy to get me the cover or I don't want to be against this guy if I bet against him. Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, those are the people that you don't want to be against. I don't want to be against Matthew Stafford ever. If I can get Matthew Stafford basically at pick at home when his team was won three in a row. You mentioned verse, Brandon Fisk, the other guy from Florida State. He had a great game last week. And don't forget, Sean McVeigh, who I think is brilliant, obviously, it's not like, you know, I'm revealing a secret. His offense, as magical as it is, as much as we talk about Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua and going downfield, it's a motion offense that is
Starting point is 00:57:34 basically predicated on the running game. And Kyron Williams is a brilliant running back, probably a top five all around running back in the league right now. And that Miami-Dolfe is, Miami Dolphins defense is not very good against the run. So I'm getting a physical team. The defense is up and coming. I love that defense. They've been lights out playmaking. I'm with you. I don't see it. I don't see why the wise guys are on the dolphins. If you want to exact decision, this, I'm with you 100%. Okay. You know I love the number four, bills minus four at the Colts. You know, if this is a division game, it's different. I do worry about this. quarterbacks off concussions,
Starting point is 00:58:15 Tua was better in the second game. Remember the first game was Arizona. We talked about this. Okay, better in the second game. Joe Flacco, first game, pretty ugly. Now it's the second game. So it tells me you're not, the people now look at Buffalo
Starting point is 00:58:32 and they look at the Colts and think, Flacco's old and washed. No, old quarterback coming in second game. I love minus fours. I take favorites. Something tells me the Colts is really, really one of the better sharp sides of the week, Sharper Square. Huge sharp side this week. It was at four and a half for a hot minute, went to four, a lot of three and a halfs out there now. The Wise guys have been piling in on the Colts. Two different scenarios here, both of which the wise guys like the Colts four. One, it's a buy low sell high.
Starting point is 00:59:13 The bills are 7 and 2. They just came off of a huge high profile win, 61-yard field goal division rival. They basically have the AFC locked up the first week in November. Huge, huge sell-high situation. The Colts, big deal, Joe Flacco, starting for Anthony Richardson.
Starting point is 00:59:34 That gives us a better chance to win. They go into Minnesota in prime time. They can't even get past the 20. a yard line, right? They cannot score. So all of a sudden, you've got to buy low. So that's one scenario in which the wise guys feel like it's overinflated because of what happened in national television for the cult. And then you've got to look, the cults have a dominant run blocking unit. That is to the detriment of the bill's rush defense. So in a lot of different metrics, whether it's yards per play, yards or expected points on the rush,
Starting point is 01:00:12 total rushes of 10 plus yards, which is sort of an explosive metric. The Colts are top five. The bills are not very good defending against the run. So there is an advantage there. And the Colts rush defense has been getting much better. We saw that against the Vikings with Grover Stewart and Branson Buckner. So there is an opportunity here against what is the strength of the bill's defense or offense to stop them.
Starting point is 01:00:37 So the wise guys are huge, huge fans of the cults here. Every week, there's a game I miss. It's usually egregiously bad to watch. Chad Millman, co-host of the favorites, all odds provided by Draft Kings. What's the game I miss? Does it include Jacksonville? Well, it doesn't this week.
Starting point is 01:00:55 Normally it would, but with Mack Jones playing, I will say, like, the line jumped from about four to seven, seven and a half. I still don't think that's enough. That's how bad most people think Mack Jones is. So I'm not even going to ask you to do anything with that game. I will say the wise guys have been on the Giants against the Panthers in the game in Munich. I won't ask you to talk about that game.
Starting point is 01:01:19 I'm a little surprised. Like you brought up all the games that are most interesting to me. One game, there's two games we didn't discuss. One is a little high profile. I'm surprised you to bring it up, which is the Steelers and the commanders. Every week there's a game I want to watch. I just want to watch it. I think it's a fascinating game.
Starting point is 01:01:40 There's an argument to be made that Steelers have the best defense in the league. They've really figured out, by the way, how to use Russell Wilson. Like Greg Hossel told me today, I said, it reminds me a little of the Seattle Seahawks, power run, defensive culture, one, one, two good weapons, tough place to play at home. He goes, but that's exactly what the video tells you. It's a poor man Seahawks team. I kind of like Pittsburgh here, right? Getting points? Yes, you do.
Starting point is 01:02:09 What's scary is you can't get the three anymore, right? Because it was at three. When it got to three, the wise guys, they immediately bet the three. And it went down to two and a half. And it's just sort of sitting at two and a half. I would still play the two and a half. Two is a key number in the NFL now with all the extra points being missed or teams going for two more often. So I wouldn't be afraid of the two and a half.
Starting point is 01:02:33 half. But this is really the best defense you just noted that Jaden Daniels has faced from a, from two defense events who can really rush the passer. And because Alex Highsmith was out for most of October, their rush metrics are not as high as they normally are. But he's been back, and this is really a stellar defense. It's also a R-R-R-R-R-R-Might Mike Tomlin spot. You got Mike Tomlin. A great, he's the best underdog coach. Burroughs, Burroughs, the best underdog quarterback, I believe. And I believe Tomlin getting two and a half points here against Washington is the best underdog coach. Colin, the numbers back you up. Mike Tomlin, 61% against a spread as a dog on the road in his career. He is the most profitable
Starting point is 01:03:22 coach as an underdog against the spread this generation. In the history of data that we have tracking all this stuff, going back about 20 years, the most profitable coach. in this situation. Also, 25 and 5 straight up against rookie QBs. Everyone is looking for the moment to sell the commanders because they've been so extraordinarily good. The Steelers off a buy with these two defensive ends and Mike Tomlin as the coach might be the time to do it.
Starting point is 01:03:53 But I didn't give you the gross game. Can I interest you in the New Orleans Saints plus three and a half against the Atlanta Falcons? No, you can't at all. We are playing the dead cat bounce. We have a team that has a new coach that got rid of the guy who, by all accounts, and we've been hearing this for more than a year, they hated Dennis Allen. How many points are they getting out on Dennis Allen?
Starting point is 01:04:24 They're getting three and a half. Saints are getting three and a half. They were getting four. It's down to three and a half. So you know the wise guys are on them because the public is betting the Falcons. So we got a pro Joe split here. This team played so badly last week, their most popular player, Cam Jordan, apologized on Twitter.
Starting point is 01:04:45 And if you look at the games Derek Carr started, look, they've lost seven in a row. Four of those games were with Derek Carr. One of those games, Kansas City, they lost 2613. But it was closer than the score. The other three games, they were by three points, two points, and one point, including one of these games against Atlanta. So I know, like, the receivers are out. They just traded Latimore to the Marshawn Latimore, the cornerback to the commanders.
Starting point is 01:05:11 But this is the spot to back the Saints. You just got to hold your nose and do it. You might not bet them again the rest of the year. It's like, we bet the Panthers when Andy Dalton came in because you knew there'd be some kind of change. Derek Carr, second game back, new coach. This is it. This is a whole ball of wax. And this Atlanta team had generally been mediocre.
Starting point is 01:05:39 Like, they're not blowing teams out. They're getting really lucky. It's a situation where the number is a little bit inflated because the Falcons have been doing so well and the public sentiment on the Saints is so low. So the wise guys are on the Saints. And the Marcus Lattermore trade, he wasn't playing anyway. So it's not like they're pulling out a guy who's used like pro bowl level
Starting point is 01:06:02 corner. He's been struggling. He's got a hamstring issue. Yeah. Good stuff. Ride with it. Do it. Do it. Come on. The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.
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