The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Chiefs ALWAYS Find A Way To Win, Bears’ Offense Is Broken, Steelers Renaissance With Russ, Betting NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 16, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week!   Colin declares Saquon Barkley as the Eagles “savior” and explains why the devaluing of the running back position was never going to last (4:00). Then, he argues... that Jayden Daniels may have hit the “rookie wall” after a blistering start to the season (11:30). Then, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to break down the Sunday action.  They begin by breaking down the surge in offensive production for the Steelers with Russell Wilson at quarterback (23:45), debate whether the Bears should fire Matt Eberflus mid-season after another disastrous outing by Caleb Williams (26:30) and declare the Broncos have finally found their franchise quarterback in Bo Nix despite the Chiefs somehow finding a way to win (33:00). Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 11 of the NFL slate. 45:30 - Steelers vs Ravens 47:47 - Packers vs Bears 50:30 - Colts vs Jets 52:45 - Rams vs Pats 56:00 - Bills vs Chiefs 01:05:00 - Chargers vs Bengals 01:08:15 - Falcons vs Broncos 01:09:45 - Saints vs Browns  01:11:15 - Seahawks vs 49ers (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
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Starting point is 00:00:42 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.
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Starting point is 00:01:37 I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.
Starting point is 00:02:00 Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English.
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Starting point is 00:03:43 Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Boyden, Ontario. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.com slash B-Ball. All right, Chad Millman is going to stop on by in about 10 minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday night football, 2618. Philadelphia played like crap in the first half and came back to win.
Starting point is 00:04:13 Let's be honest, behind Sequin Barclay. Philadelphia is such a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look like, you're getting into week 10, week 11, it's a short week. Philadelphia looked tired. Philadelphia looked beat up. They look tired. And, you know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical. I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington, couldn't get anything going in the first half.
Starting point is 00:04:43 You know, it wasn't until the last final drives when, you know, they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to be a better football team than that. Eagles are 6 and 0 when Saquan Barkley rushes for 100 plus yards, so he's completely changed the offense. Jalen Hertz, there were times tonight in the first half when J.L. Hurtz missed A.J. Brown badly on like a 12, 15-yard out. And, you know, he's just the savior of the offense. I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL loves to trade to their rivals. It's sort of a no-no. You know, to me, as long as you're not trading like your best player. It is unbelievable. The New York Giants allowed. And it was the most predictable thing in the world. Seekwan Barkley, their best player, by and. a lot to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean, that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if the Giants are going to clean house, but that's the kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barclay's a remarkable player. You know, it really cracks me up. The media overreacts to everything. A lot of it is the media is much younger than it used to be, is that the media,
Starting point is 00:05:51 you know, companies now don't have the money, especially traditional media. You know, they're going to get young and cheap in the media. So a lot of times the media is 31 years old, 28 years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's never happened before, but that's their life. You know, I've been doing this so long now. And believe me, that's not a humble brag. You know, it's sometimes I look at the media and I think, guys, this is, it's everything's cyclical. I mean, virtually politics is cyclical. Everything is cyclical. Tech, the industry's not very old, but it feels cyclical. You get ups and downs. Everybody overreacts to everything. And earlier this year, you know, or was it last year, the off season, there was this big
Starting point is 00:06:38 complaint that running backs are not getting paid? And it's like, take a deep breath. Safeties have never been paid. You know, tight ends have always been underpaid. Interior offensive linemen don't get paid unless you're the L.A. Rams, they pay theirs. running backs are always going to be valuable because a running back is essential for a young quarterback, for instance. All quarterbacks are better. I mean, Jaylon Hertz is not a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better with the good running back. Well, quarterback's the most essential piece in the league. Secondly, running backs, weather gets harsh, weather gets colder.
Starting point is 00:07:19 It gets windier, November, December, January. running games become more essential. Not to mention, you know, our running back is such a great piece, not just to set the tempo of a team, but when you lead and good teams lead. And so a lot of times a running back, it eats up the clock. So good teams are always going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia is a good team, excellent running back. Isaiah Pacheco when he comes back will be so valuable to the Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has changed everything.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Derek Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league, let Joe Mixen go. Bingles would die for a 12-play drive, nine runs with Joe Mixon to keep their awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were going to, you know, disappear into the ether, the reports, I said this on FS1, I set up multiple times, take a deep breath. There was always going to be a market for Austin Echler. You know, Washington's like, hey, we need you. You don't have to get 30 carries, but we need you.
Starting point is 00:08:29 So there's excellent young running backs in the league, and Saquan Barclay is so valuable. This is a team that's good. They often play with the league. And he was like a closer tonight. Like he was just so dependable late in the football game. I will say if these are two of the best teams in the NFC, then the AMC is still superior to the NFC. But I also think Jalen Hertz allows, Sequin Barclay, excuse me, allows Jalen Hertz to throw less.
Starting point is 00:08:59 In his six-game winning streak, he's only had two turnovers. So Jalen Hertz can throw 22 times. He doesn't have to throw 34 times. So, and it frustrates me sometimes. And I see this in the political media, you know, to the Trump election. It's, listen, the election was decided by a million, six votes or something like that in a country of 350 million people. And you can see from the appointees, you know, Trump is always going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president. You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team.
Starting point is 00:09:33 You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House, things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever. So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think, you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember, it was the small ball league. and everybody got small. And then here comes Yokic. And here comes Yonis.
Starting point is 00:09:54 And, you know, the Boston Celtics are like, let's get a big. Let's get poor Zingas. And now, you know, with the emergence of some of these young stars like a Wembe, you just have to have size. You just, in the NBA, you're just not going to win a championship. I mean, Julius Randall, see ya, we'll take Carl Anthony Towns. We need more size if we want to match up with Janus and Bede and Porzengis in the East. I mean, it's amazing how many.
Starting point is 00:10:20 true big man. Anthony Davis is the best player on the Lakers. Janice on Milwaukee, Yokic, Gwembe, there's all sorts of good players. Cheap Holmgren is such a good player for O.KC. He's not as good as SGA, but a great player. So, I mean, one team, Minnesota, I mean, has been kind of reboot as a franchise before Carl Anthony Town got traded because they went and got Rudy Gober and Carl Anthony Towns. They went and got two centers. Everything, everything over time, either re-evolve. emerges, emerges, regresses to the mean, take a deep breath. It's all going to be okay. I also think what's happening last weekend was a great weekend for underdogs.
Starting point is 00:11:02 And I thought tonight, you know, Washington, you couldn't figure the first half out. I mean, you looked at the stats. Washington never had the football. They had the football 11 minutes and they led. And it was one of these football games. You're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia is so much better. Jacksonville, Minnesota last weekend. Minnesota was so much better. Sanford. and just go in Tampa last week. I mean, go look at the box score in that game. So what you're finding is a lot of these superior football teams, they're injured, they're beat up, they're playing some backups, they're tired.
Starting point is 00:11:31 You know, a lot of the better football teams in the NFL, they have older players, players just out of their prime. Week 10, week 11, week 12. Listen, I like Jaden Daniels. And let's talk about this. But he's hit a bit of a rookie wall. And last year, C.J. Stroud had a three-game stretch, and we all like him, where he completed 57% of his throws. So Jaden Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson feel. Nobody has any film. Nobody has any NFL film.
Starting point is 00:12:00 I mean, you're just kind of, okay, you go back and look at the LSU film. I mean, you don't, you don't know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with Jaden Daniels brand new. So you get four, five weeks, and you're like, oh, then, you know, then they lose to a Baltimore. And they play Pittsburgh a couple of weeks there. And they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now they lose to a Pittsburgh. and now they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams, Washington I had as a wildcard team coming into the season, some teams, it takes a while to figure them out. And I think more than any team in the NFL, that's Washington. They come in with a fastball, nobody's seen it.
Starting point is 00:12:32 Kingsbury's got a new offense and a new quarterback, and everybody's kind of just, you just, you need more film. And then all of a sudden you kind of figure out what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line, you know, into the season, going into the season, said about the commanders. Don't know if I like the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early, some smoking mirrors. I mean, they're just picking up seven yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they really don't have good enough, you know, I like their running backs, but I mean, Terry McLaurin in the first half, didn't even see a target. You know, so people take Terry McLaren out,
Starting point is 00:13:06 and it's a pretty weak, wide receding crew, and it's a pretty average offensive line. And now everybody's got all the tape. And so I think he's going to be, I think, I think Jane Daniels has been a home run, you know, rookie of the year, all that stuff. But this is the reality. C.J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had some games where, you know, the game speeds up. The other thing is what happens is, like, a young quarterback maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies, you know, more on a running back, and then people start getting dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven. And now, you know, a Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components he needs. And so, you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has certain things he's not
Starting point is 00:13:53 going to run, certain plays, certain sets. So, you know, on insert day, you know, and this is a short week anyway, you know, you're limited on what you have. And I think that's what you're seeing. I think you're seeing a young quarterback. And it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps. No, Bo Nick started slowly, but he has an offensive head coach and one of the great one's in Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the element of surprise, what the heck is Jane Daniels? And you're guessing. And he's so electric and so athletic. He was just picking up yards with his feet. Nothing quite like him. Looks a little like Lamar and the NFC. And now we're seeing people, people have a track. Doesn't mean, it's like a little bit like
Starting point is 00:14:40 Lamar Jackson. I mean, Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he would have trouble in some division games as teams in his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late, week 11. He beats the Chargers. Then he has to face him again in the playoffs. And he loses the Chargers. I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the Chargers at the time. And he said, you know, first time you face him, I mean, you just don't. You can watch all the film you want. You have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is, how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. and then the second time you face him, okay, we're going to take away this,
Starting point is 00:15:19 that's his fastball. We're taking away that. Force him to go to his second and his third receiver. And then you, he's still tough to beat. But you can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career. I don't think he's had a great record against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin, they always have a good defense.
Starting point is 00:15:35 They see him multiple times a year. They know all the tricks. And so I think Jaden Daniels will be a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him, lot. But for a Philadelphia that's well-run, good pieces that sees him twice a year, you know, he may have, through the years, he may have trouble with the Eagles, but still love him. That's a pretty good quarterback class. A few years ago, we had the class with Jalen Hertz and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. This quarterback class, J.J. McCarthy looked really, really good
Starting point is 00:16:07 in the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo Nix looks good. And Jaden Daniels looks good. And I do believe Caleb Williams will eventually get it right or closer to what he's going to be. He had a good three-game stretch earlier this season. Caleb Williams was 74% completion percentage in three games. But again, now people are getting tape. Now they see what Caleb can't do. Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver that's stinged up.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Just steps. Just a process. Jaden's going to be great. I let Philadelphia tonight just, they just looked. They were a little tired, a little beat up. But they came back to be an inferior roster, 26 to 18. Nick Sariani,
Starting point is 00:16:48 I still cannot get over. I don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year. Offensive coach, Sequin Barclay, Jalen Hertz, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, good O line. That's just odd to me. Just, Philadelphia is such a unique franchise.
Starting point is 00:17:07 And maybe I'm loopy because this game put me to sleep. But they're the only franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite. in love of the coach. And yet I think it's a top five organization in the NFL. Everybody else, like Kansas City feels so stable. Baltimore feels so stable. Philadelphia is a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators have they had? I mean, they're on their third offensive coordinator in three years. They're constantly
Starting point is 00:17:37 rotating through coordinators, coaches, a few years back, quarterbacks. But yet I don't see them like the New York Jets, the New York Giants as reactionary. I tend to think they're proactive. Smart owner, smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly. But at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a winning record. But you know what? We found out in San Francisco, Chip's more of a college guy than a pro guy.
Starting point is 00:18:03 So they knew something in the building that we didn't, even though they went 10 and 6, 10 in 6 first two years with pretty average quarterback play. They knew something. They saw something. Carson Wentz, they signed him to a big deal. And then they, you know, they kind of moved off. him and you're thinking, what are you doing here? You just sign them to a big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they know things in the building. They keep it to themselves, and they react proactively, very strongly. And so, Philadelphia, once again, I mean, this offense with Jalen
Starting point is 00:18:31 Hertz has been one of two things. Turnover prone and awful, or when Nick Seriani moves back and lets his OC run things, excellent. There's nothing in between. It's either been, you know, like right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a great O line at Sequin Barclay. Six and O are the Eagles when Sequin rushes for a hundred or more, completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's some interesting things. Tonight, Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, Saturday, John Jones, UFC fight. Good weekend, good. Anytime you can get a fight on a Friday and a Saturday, into a big football weekend, excellent. Chad Millman's next.
Starting point is 00:19:17 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Starting point is 00:19:41 Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,
Starting point is 00:19:58 or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
Starting point is 00:20:17 One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Cliverts show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or we're you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network
Starting point is 00:20:47 on TikTok. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30. You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing, in your mental health. These are real honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of
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Starting point is 00:21:37 And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen, to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Georgia accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King,
Starting point is 00:22:13 recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise, the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment.
Starting point is 00:22:36 To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What would you eat if you had to start over? Real simple, poor man's, poor woman's food. Black beans, chicken, rice, plantains. Yeah. That's all. That's poor people's food, man. But being Nigerian, that's, come on, a go-to.
Starting point is 00:23:01 On the podcast eating while broke, I sit down with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and creators as they revisit the meals. they once relied on and the moments that shaped their journey. Named Best Food Podcasts at the 2006 IHeart Podcast Awards. This show is all about real conversations on money, growth, and what it really takes to make it. It was times where me and Lex were like definitely getting into it because we're not making any money. Like I need to start making money. Like why are we doing this? But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:23:29 I think we just always knew that we had something really good and eventually people were going to catch on. And so we just thugged it out. The full season is available to binge right now. Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. So I went today and I said, and I watched Russell. So the Steelers are 3 and O with Russell Wilson, averaging about 30 a game. It's the first time in several years they have the offense moving. And I went back and I took Russell Wilson with Pete Carolyn Seattle, Russell Wilson, the one year.
Starting point is 00:24:11 with Sean Payton and Russell Wilson with Mike Tomlin, the three times he's had competent coaches. And you know what he gives you? He moves. Sixty-four percent completion percentage, a pass-a-rating over a hundred. He doesn't miss any starts. He's not great from the pocket, but he throws a really nice deep ball. And when I watch what he's done to Pittsburgh, he has brought, it's a little big Ben. He's a totally different player. He's brought the deep ball back to the Steelers. So now you have have veteran, just say it out loud. Veteran coach, great defense, tough at home, solid run game, good deep ball offense. That's pretty good football team. That's a pretty good team. Yeah, to me, that that stat that they show that they were averaging 20 points with fields and they're
Starting point is 00:25:01 averaging over 30 points with him. I mean, that's a pretty big difference. That's a pretty, and what do they get a game winning touchdown on? The deep ball throw to Mike Williams. Yeah. What do, what are their three best? wide receivers now, adding Mike Williams with pickings and their tight end. Big guys, throw them up, give them 50, 50, 50 balls because they're not 50, 50 balls with those guys, right there. 75, 25 balls with those guys. So I thought at times a day, like, this is where you got to be careful about writing your takes down at halftime, like the gap, Jaden looked way better, their offense was rolling. But Russell, there is something to be said. I think he can be kind of corny and
Starting point is 00:25:36 kind of just stupid the way that he comes off like a politician at times. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But he is very steady Eddie. You know, he doesn't go into the tank when it looks, it just looked off early. That's right. He also can make the throw, that lob touch throw that won them the game, that a handful of bet, the average to below average quarterbacks can't make. It was a problem with Trubisky forever. You know, Fields is a more talented Trubisky, but cannot make that layered kind of lollipop throw. And at this point in time, that is Russell's go-to throw. And even back when he was better wined his game, like when he got D.K. Metcalf. So you give him these big targets, Sutton, like they had some plays in Denver, right? Throw it up, let them go make a play.
Starting point is 00:26:21 That was a big win for Pittsburgh, Colin. Because I thought, I was thoroughly impressed with Washington. I'm like, this is going to be a great win. And then Russell drives him right down the field, even his calmness, there is something to be said on that game winning drive that he led them on. When those guys look at him in the huddle, like, this ain't his first rodeo. That's right. Say what you want about him. He's not near the same guy. But like, you look at him in the huddle, you go, this guy has been in this moment, you know, 50 plus times in this career. Let's talk a game that wasn't nearly as captivating, but it made a statement. New England 19, Chicago 3, 21 straight drives for the Bears without a touchdown. Third straight game,
Starting point is 00:27:01 no offensive identity. Caleb, under 54% completion rate, third straight game. He's lost. One for 14 on third down, pitiful. At Drake May, again, seven different targets. They didn't ask him to do much. You know, they averaged five and a half yards of play without, you know, much to work with. But I think the story here is, and I've said this, poorly coached teams, Brandon Staley last year, start the year. Remember that Brandon? I think it was last year.
Starting point is 00:27:31 They almost beat Miami to start to wild, crazy game. And then about week six, you're like, man, they're not well-coached. And then by like week 12, the players have quit. A poorly run business can fool people three or four or five weeks. I mean, that Tennessee win, I mean, they were outplayed by the Titans at home in week one. It was a Will Levis mistake, because that's an L. I think what you look at this team now is you look at a poorly coach team. There's a lack of belief.
Starting point is 00:27:59 There's absolutely no identity offensively. They averaged 2.4 yards of play. Ryan Pohl said last week, we're not making coach. changes. This is not Jacksonville. Chicago is a loud media. Do you fire Matt Iber Fluse during the season? I mean, I think there's a decent chance by the time, you know, we wake up or before lunch on Monday, he's relieved of his duties. You can't go back-to-back games like they have just had when they were a play away from looking like, is this team about to win 10 or 11 games? And it now feels like if I told you they win one more game the rest of the season, we've talked about their skis. schedule there in shambles.
Starting point is 00:28:39 Their coaching staff's an embarrassment right now, and it's going to get absolutely destroyed by every Bears fan and rightfully so. But I also think that like Ryan Poles bears responsibility, he drafted Roma Dunezay, who we all like their offensive line is pitiful. And there were countless offensive linemen on the board at Pick 9 that would have, who's Jim Harbaugh take? He takes an offensive lineman. Where it's like, take a receiver?
Starting point is 00:29:05 He's like, no. Who would Andy Reed have taken it? in that spot, he would have taken a guard or a tackle because you have to protect that guy. And they took a wide receiver when they already got multiple wide receivers. And let's face it, they got a problem on their hands because DJ Moore, who for like a five straight year stretch, everyone in the NFL is like, listen, I don't know, this guy, it doesn't matter what quarterback he's playing with. This guy's a stud.
Starting point is 00:29:27 People liked him, who's high character. He does not like Caleb. Like they have an issue. They have an issue. And they just extended him. Now, obviously, it's not like if you have to pick one or the other, they have have no choice. They're all in on Caleb Williams, but that is a problem for them. And I saw this with the 49ers, and I'm not comparing Caleb to Trey Lance. He's obviously a much better player,
Starting point is 00:29:47 but they never believed in Trey Lance. Not the coaching staff, not the front office, the players, why they wanted Jimmy, why they had no problem going to Purdy, because they see every day in practice. I think we were talking before you jumped on about like, I think Nick Wright had a take about like, just go with Trey Lance right now, because maybe you get something and best case, he just sucks and you lose. You know why you can't do that? Because Micah Parsons and C.D. Lamb would be like, what the fuck are we doing? Right.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Because they see practice. And I think you have this Caleb Williams situation. Everyone's going to point to Shane Waldron, who I actually always kind of liked, but clearly this is not going well for him. And Iber Fluss over his head is going to get fired. But there are plays to be made for Caleb, and he doesn't look remotely close. Like even if you are a Caleb supporter, which I, with you, like most people, I would have drafted him number one overall. But like the draft happened. Now we're 10 games in. There are
Starting point is 00:30:39 plays. It's not all his fault. But I think we also have to acknowledge like Drake May plays in an organization that's in turmoil. The former head coach, who's one of the most legendary sports figures of all times, ripping Gerard Mayo like three weeks ago. Everyone's ripping the owner. The coaching staff's more than questionable. There's not that much talent. You watch Drake May. You're like, God, he was the best quarterback by a wide margin on the field. No question. And the other thing, Colin, is like, let's use Jared Goff as an example. Remember that rookie season, it felt like, is this guy, this guy, even an NFL player? But the one thing you knew Jared Goff could do in college was like he was a pocket quarterback.
Starting point is 00:31:18 So he was never going to have to run. He's a pocket. If you could protect him, he could play in the pocket. There is just a question with Caleb, like, can he play within the pocket? That was a question coming out. Like, it's not something he's comfortable doing. You don't just get to freelance all the time in the NFL. So it's like, one, two, three, get rid of the first.
Starting point is 00:31:33 rid of the ball. Now, are his receivers not getting open all the time? Obviously, some plays. But I do think there's a legit question of like, what offense to make this guy successful? Like, I watched Drake May. It's like, I think that guy could fit in a lot of offenses. Yeah. You know, I thought Jaden was like, I think he's going to have to play in like more of a Lamar style. I'm watching, like, what Lamar is now, what Lamar was when he was really young, not the version now. And you watch Jaden right now, it's like, this guy's awesome in the pocket. So I just think there's question marks on Caleb that you look at this job. Like, this is why I'm like Mike Vrable.
Starting point is 00:32:05 Like, I'm not looking for Caleb to throw 40 touchdowns anymore. Maybe that's not his game. Let's just kind of go what Pete Carroll did in 13 and 14. Like, hey, we're going to run the ball. We're going to have a tough defense. You're going to play within my system. That's what we're taking the cooking utensils away from your hands. That's what Philadelphia has done with Jalen Hertz.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Jalen Hurts today is throwing 24 times. And it's very effective. He throws a good deep ball. They're not letting Jailen Hurst. And by the way, outside of a Mahomes or a Josh Allen, I don't want my guys throwing 42 times. I don't want my offensive linemen backing up 42. I want him going forward 42 times. It's interesting because...
Starting point is 00:32:41 Jayland's a little less herky jerky, though. Caleb, I think he's a little shorter area. I think Jaylon's a better runner, but a little more quick twitch. And to me, his herky jerkiness throws everything off. And part of it's young. He's kind of seeing ghosts. But it's just, I don't know if we've seen something this, like this go. back to like Sam Darnold Jets.
Starting point is 00:33:00 Like this is a train wreck calling offensively. I want to talk about another game. Let's go back to an interesting game. Kansas City beats Denver 16 to 14. And I just, I wrote, what Kansas City's become is a great moments team. Two for two on fourth down. Block to kick. Great on third down.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Only three penalties. They're still trying to figure out what the hell they are a little bit offensively. Like they don't, you know, they, they're this, Colin. is this ugly? Just keep us in the game and we'll just try to win it with five minutes left. But when you have the best coach, the best quarterback, arguably the best defense, the best third down offense, that's enough. I was thinking about this about two weeks ago. About every six years, I went back and looked at it. It was about every six to seven years, a great team wins the Super Bowl. But mostly, it's a really good team with no huge hole that coaches can pick on you. In a two-week layoff for the Super Bowl, when Mahomes' team.
Starting point is 00:33:58 didn't have both tackles, he gets routed. If he'd had one, it would have been a game. Kansas City's not terrible at anything. They're beat up. They're trying to figure out the receiving core. But because Mahomes is so good and Andy Reid is so clever, it's functional. It makes plays when you have to. I thought this was the game.
Starting point is 00:34:18 This was the game I did not pick in Blazing Five. It was my last pick. I thought Denver had a chance to win today. Same. But the takeaway I had beyond Kansas City doing that. Bo Nix, that final drive, 13 plays, a little bit like Brock Purdy. You're like, I mean, he had eight different receivers today, 22 or 30, 245 yards, a couple of touchdowns, great final drive. I think all those college starts.
Starting point is 00:34:44 Like, I think he may have a lower ceiling, but I think Denver is a five drafted players away and maybe a free agent signing from being a pain in the ass to people. I think Denver's pretty interesting. Yeah, I thought this game was way more about Denver than Kansas City. I mean, Kansas City just does this every week. They're going to go 15 and 2 or 16 and 1 and everyone's going to go how the hell they do it. Well, they do it because like you said, it's the organizational competitive character, their know-how, their experience. I mean, they're missing. The best receiver who tore his ACL. They're starting running back. Like Karim Hunt's been an awesome story. There's a big drop off between Pacheco and him. Huge. So, I mean, you get him back, hopefully in December. It's a broken leg. So, you know, that'll be a big boost for them. Because they're going to win like this, right? 21 to 17.
Starting point is 00:35:33 But to me, Denver went in there, as they should have. Short week, Kansas City, a little gas. And they came in ready to win. And Bo Nix hit Sutton on the beautiful touchdown pass. You're like, it's going to be the game. I thought, like, you know, it's finally the Chiefs just lose 28 to 15 or something. And they just find a way because defensively they're good. obviously the home crowd is pretty special.
Starting point is 00:35:55 But I think Denver, this was probably one of their more impressive weeks of the year, even counting their wins, just because we'll have to see how it breaks out. Like that's seven seed when you look, like obviously the Jets are done, Colts are in major trouble. You know, when you look at the AFC playoff, the Bengals are screwed. You basically have the Steelers and Ravens. You know, one team's going to win the division, one team's going to be in. Well, Steelers charge the Chiefs and the Chargers are in.
Starting point is 00:36:19 Yeah, Steelers. I think Denver could get the seven seats. So do I. I think the top is very good. Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City. And then I think the wild card feels like. Do you throw Pittsburgh in there too, though? I do. I think, let's say Pittsburgh become. We'll find out when they play each other this week. Yeah. And Baltimore at their best is better than Pittsburgh at their best. Agreed. So I think the wild card teams, and they don't feel quite as good. Chargers, not a ton of juice offensively, but a good team. Denver, rookie quarterback. and Pittsburgh.
Starting point is 00:36:53 You have some limitations, I think, on, you know, I think Russell from the pocket, there's limitations if he was trailing in a game and he put big heat on him. But I will say with Denver, I mean, Mahomes last two games, no picks, first seven games, nine picks. So what Kansas City has basically done, they've gotten those ugly, remember the start of the year? We're like, Jesus, Mahomes has like one or two, just horrible pick. They've gotten out of that space. the win for Kansas City is harder than you think because of the short week. But I think to your point, I think you look at Sean Payton and Bo Nix,
Starting point is 00:37:28 and I think we could both say he found his Drew Brees. He found his guy. I don't know if he's as good as him, but he found his guy. Yeah, well, I mean, he's definitely made strides because it was early. I think I didn't put as much stock into some of the early games in the fourth quarter when he played well because it's like, I don't, the context of that, the defense gave up. but I do think the last couple weeks you feel a lot better about it. And let's face it, like there are some rookie quarterbacks playing.
Starting point is 00:37:56 And obviously, Jaden Daniels, it couldn't have gotten much better. It's one of the great, like, I mean, we saw one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time last year with C.J. Stroud, I would put Jaden Daniels right there toe to toe of like, geez, it can't be this good, can it? And then you have like Drake May, who's on a team that's so shitty. But you're watching me go, well, there's something there. Oh, yeah. I would take that guy. And then you watch Bo, who doesn't have Drake's physical characteristics, who's not as talented, why one guy goes three, the other guy.
Starting point is 00:38:22 Most people thought was overdrafted, but you go with this coach, with this infrastructure, their defense. I mean, that's the one thing. Like, if Sean Payton has a defense, as he did in New Orleans, which rebrees, they were elite, right? So if you just give a defense, like, he'll figure out the office. Most teams are not Kansas City. To me, I think they get to nine wins and they would be the seventh seat. Now, the difference, though, is, you know, depending on who they play, right? If you're the seventh seed, you're playing the two seats.
Starting point is 00:38:45 So you're playing Baltimore or Buffalo. Like no one's betting on Denver. I would say no one's going to want to see the Chargers as the six-seed. Like if you're Baltimore, Pittsburgh, that will be a team that like, wow, they're a five-point underdog. Like who I think Harbaugh would be a team that people would believe in. Or Denver, there's nothing wrong with it, one and done team in the playoffs, probably like the commanders. And you tip your hat to it. You feel good.
Starting point is 00:39:09 Yeah. If you look at their schedule, John, Denver now hosts the Falcons. Dome team, cold weather. Then they get, they face the Raiders, then they face the Browns at home, then they get the Colts at home, and then they go to the Chargers. I think they match up, it's very close. So to your point here is, you know, preseason we're like, oh, you know, you look at some of these teams.
Starting point is 00:39:35 Then the Broncos end with the Bengals. And by the way, they host the Chiefs in the last week, week 18. Kansas City could be resting guys at that point. They could be just sitting. And I'm looking at it right. now, technically at 5 and 5, they are in the seventh spot, trailed by Indianapolis, who, let's face it, I don't blame them. I think they did the right thing, but the Flacco, Anthony Richards thing's all out of whack.
Starting point is 00:39:56 Now, Flacco looks terrible. Terrible. And the Bengals who have this quarterback who can't play any better, and Jamar Chase, who looks like Jerry Rice in his prime, cannot win games. So, you know, you don't feel very. And just because of the division they're in, it's just a lot harder when you got to play Pittsburgh and Baltimore, right? then they don't get the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:40:14 Even Cleveland now, throwing in Jamis is a real team with real players. I would much rather play the Raiders than the Browns. So that was a pretty devastating loss for the Bengals the other night, and that could be the difference why Denver gets the seven seed and the Bengals end up eight and nine. I mean, it could just be the different. One team's nine and eight, the other team's eight and nine.
Starting point is 00:40:33 That's it. It's that big of a difference. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4th.
Starting point is 00:41:12 You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, personal health, personal health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.
Starting point is 00:41:46 It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:42:03 And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body, On the podcast cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30. You shouldn't have to share room with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health.
Starting point is 00:42:33 These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas.
Starting point is 00:42:55 They're practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Orsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues.
Starting point is 00:43:24 I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real House Wise franchise, The drama, the alliances, and the T, everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game.
Starting point is 00:43:48 As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment. To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What would you eat if you had to start over? Real simple, poor man's, poor woman's food. Black beans, chicken, rice, plantains. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:16 That's poor people's food, man. But being Nigerian, that's, come on, a go-to. On the podcast eating while broke, I sit down with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and creators as they revisit the meals they once relied on in the moments that shaped their journey. Named Best Food Podcasts at the 2006 IHeart Podcast Awards, This show is all about real conversations on money, growth, and what it really takes to make it. It was times where me and Lex were, like, definitely getting into it. Because we're not making any money.
Starting point is 00:44:45 Like, I need to start making money. Like, why are we doing this? But I don't know. I think we just always knew that we had something really good. And eventually people were going to catch on. And so we just thugged it out. The full season is available to binge. Right now.
Starting point is 00:44:59 Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network. All of our odds are always provided by Drafking Sportsbook. All right, Chad Milman. There are certain games I just want to watch and not bet, but I would take the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens.
Starting point is 00:45:31 The number is three and a half. It's one of the bets of the weekend. At three, I still think I would take it. I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack. the Ravens weakness. Baltimore's one of those teams, and this is rare with a great team. They can outplay you
Starting point is 00:45:48 and then get beat by the Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams. They're so bad on the back end. And I think Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks light. Russell's not what he once was, but in this rivalry, even a field goal,
Starting point is 00:46:05 I'm taking the point, sharper square. Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a couple different directions. the matchup. The wise guy see it exactly the way you do. We've been watching it all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in the back door, right?
Starting point is 00:46:21 We saw it with the commanders. They were down a significant amount. They came back, they came back, and they were able to cover that game. We saw it with the Bengals who were up so much because they were able to attack the back end of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey
Starting point is 00:46:37 in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if not their best defender, and now that secondary is going to be even worse. The overarching theme here, and this is the reason why professionals are on it, don't forget, this game opened at three and a half, it is settled at three. The wise guys are still on it. But look, in the regular season, in this game, in this matchup, the past 20 years when the line is three or more, the underdog, 22, four, and three. underdog, 15, 2, and 1 since 2015. In the regular season when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, the underdog in this matchup,
Starting point is 00:47:19 23, 6, and 3. And then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable coach as an underdog in the past 20 years in the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh, when he's a favorite, is not nearly as good as when he's a dog in this matchup. So there is a matchup reason, and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers at plus three. You're sharp. You know I like the number four and five. So Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had influence over me. This was going to be a stayaway game, but Packers, offensive coach off a buy at Chicago.
Starting point is 00:47:55 And what Greg Cosell said, it's not a Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it. He is not able to see something, spot it, get the ball out quickly. Green Bay, I think, has its most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach. I think he's been a really nice fit for them. Under the radar, low-key, really knows his side of the ball.
Starting point is 00:48:24 It's five. I would take Green Bay. I know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization, coach. Jordan loves healthier, sharper square. So the wise guys have been on the Bears in this game. It's moved from six to five and a half to now five in some places. I agree with you for what it's worth. For me, this is a pass or it's the Packers.
Starting point is 00:48:49 I think there's so much dysfunction with the Bears. And the reason why the wise guys are taking them right now is because they believe this is bottomed out, right? It's gotten as bad as it can get in the locker room. It can't get any worse. whether you believe that the players were responsible for getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen, whether you believe that the system can now get a little bit less complex and easier for Caleb Williams, whether you believe that they're getting two defensive linemen back, which they are, and will make him feel more comfortable in the pocket,
Starting point is 00:49:22 this team has been full of chaos. And so the wise guys are betting literally that it cannot get any worse in a division game against their rival at home. The flip side is entirely about what the Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic. As a defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this is where Matt LaFleur has been a genius,
Starting point is 00:49:48 figure out how to best take advantage of what the bears are bad at on defense. The bears are not a very good rushing defense. We've seen what Matt LaFleur does with someone like Josh Jacobs, when he knows he doesn't have Jordan Love, he just figures out creative ways to get the running game in motion. He will likely do that against the Bears. Also, Matt LaFleur, 7 and 3 when favored by four points or more, over the past two decades, road favorites off of a buy,
Starting point is 00:50:16 covered a 60% clip. Road favorites of five and a half or more covered a 70% clip. So there's lots of reasons to like the Packers here. The wise guys think the right side is the Bears. So Journey had a song years ago, and one of the lyrics is, I can't stop loving you. And I feel that's like odds makers on the Jets. This is a bad team. How in God's name were they favored in Arizona?
Starting point is 00:50:43 It was never competitive. Colts getting over a field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his lesson. When he's healthy, he's kind of a fan.
Starting point is 00:50:58 fascinating player that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback. He's a huge tackle-breaking tornado of activity. That's not a great quarterback, but I'm taking the points here all day, Sharper Square. It's a 50-50 game right now. And I agree with you. You think about Journey. I think that same way when I think about offensive lines who are really, really physical. And the Colts offensive line, when it comes to run blocking, is super physical, best in the NFL. And we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last week against the bills at home.
Starting point is 00:51:41 And if not for Joe Flacco and three turnovers, and if not for getting sacked when it's fourth and inches, I know if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is, they ran the ball on the bills. They had more than 120 yards rushing, and Jonathan Taylor went for more than 100. And average five and a half yards per carry. So they were able to do exactly what they wanted to do against the bills. The Jets defense, from a rushing perspective,
Starting point is 00:52:10 is worse than the bill's rush defense. And the team overall is much worse than the bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson back, to your point, this is a better opportunity for Shane Stuyck. to let everybody run with the ball and dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week against the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is not a physical defense,
Starting point is 00:52:33 and they have gotten so much worse since Robert Sallow was fired. So the line moved down from four to three and a half, actually from four and a half to three and a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts. It's come back a little bit on the Jets, and so now it's settled at four. the majority of wise guys are with you and they will be on the Colts. Well, Rams minus four and a half, that key number of game at New England.
Starting point is 00:52:58 So very rarely is, have I ever seen a Sean McVeigh team out-coached. It felt like they were out-schemed early. It was like, I thought it was an embarrassing game for Sean McVeigh. And it was hard to digest because the Dolphins, a poor pass-rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches and good quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy. That was not the Rams.
Starting point is 00:53:27 They were playing very good. It's a short week. I think New England now are all binding to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now, Drake May is not Tua. He's not. They don't have those weapons. They're not going to.
Starting point is 00:53:40 Listen, the Rams brought some people, and they got burned on third down because Tua is a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallow the four and a half here, take the Ram Sharper Square. So it's been square, and I got to tell you, we've talked about executive decisions before. I don't know why the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't make any sense to me at all. This is a by-low on the better team, sell high on the worst team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who are so high on life after beating up on the bears on the road, a franchise tying record,
Starting point is 00:54:20 nine sacks against Caleb Williams. And look, I watched that game, obviously the Rams and the Dolphins too. I looked at it a little differently. The Rams have five field goals. The Rams Red Zone this season has been atrocious. And to me, that was sort of the bottoming out, right? Every time they got close, it was a sack,
Starting point is 00:54:41 it was a botched snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake. And then there were a couple times defensively, You know, they had that third and 25 that they gave up, and they gave up a penalty on that one, too. They had another field goal. They made the field goal, five-yard illegal motion penalty. They moved back, and then all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So to me, it was just, it was a game full of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team.
Starting point is 00:55:05 You're getting the much better team in a bounce-back spot with a relatively low number. So I like that, by the way. teams who have been favorites at home and lost, and then our favorites the following week on the road, about 60% the past 20 years against the spread. And by the way, Sean McVeigh, short rest, 14 and 6 against the spread, 10-1 in his last 11 games with Matthew Stafford, 6-1 on short rest.
Starting point is 00:55:36 Like, I don't understand the move here. It doesn't make any sense to me. So, yeah, let's go with the ramps. Uh, Kansas City plus two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City, but now Coleman's not playing. And Amari Cooper's backed up. And Kincaid might not play. You're not beating them at half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable third in longs.
Starting point is 00:55:59 And it's a, and they're getting, by the way, they're getting Pacheco back. So that can be a difference maker for their run game, which has been pretty pedestrian. and Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out of the back field, but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore. This feels like an obvious one, Chiefs plus the points, even though it's not three sharper square. Yeah, so what's interesting about this is on Sunday night,
Starting point is 00:56:23 this line opened at Chiefs Plus One, and it started skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights, Monday mornings, that's when the wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines. So if there are a line moves in that first 24-hour window, that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas City plus one,
Starting point is 00:56:44 Kansas City plus one and a half, Kansas City plus two, Kansas City plus two and a half. And it made no sense. This is a little bit like the Steelers where you know what the precedent is. You know Mike Tomlin does this X percent amount of time that is what we call in the betting business,
Starting point is 00:57:04 a plus EV plus expected value return. on your investment, right? So you just bet it. Like, you might not love it. You might get burned on it four times out of 10, but six times out of 10, you're getting a win. The percentages with Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a favorite of less than three are so much higher than anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year. Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games. They should have lost to the 49ers. Maybe they should have lost to the Broncos. Like there have been spots, but look, 12-1-1 against the spread is Mahomes as an underdog.
Starting point is 00:57:46 Okay? His only against the spread loss was against the bills two years ago, two and a half-point underdogs, they lost by four. 25 and 10 straight up, 26, 8 and 1 in his career against the spread as a favorite of three or fewer points or as an, underdog. Like, I'm with you. You just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in the spot. If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl where he was a two and a half point underdog, if Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you want to be betting against him at the end of the game? Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No, nobody is. And to your point, Kean Coleman out, Amari Cooper out. King Cade, if he does play is playing with the cast,
Starting point is 00:58:33 They're a little banged up on the right side of their offensive line. Like, there are reasons to be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes. So, yes, this line has come down, by the way, to answer the original question. So it's starting to become sharp to bet on the chiefs. Are you struggling to find the right candidates? Well, good news. There's a place to go to get help. It's called ZipRecruiter.
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Starting point is 00:59:23 So see for yourself. All you have to do, do it for free. ZipRecruiter.com slash Colin. Right now, free. I mean, free. That's the same price as a perfect sunset. Try it. Free.
Starting point is 00:59:33 Exclusive web address. ZipRecruiter. dot com slash Colin C-O-L-I-N. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. Really is. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Starting point is 00:59:53 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.
Starting point is 01:00:15 I don't care where you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement
Starting point is 01:00:32 to my brand-new podcast. the Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health,
Starting point is 01:00:49 purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.
Starting point is 01:01:05 Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard.
Starting point is 01:01:29 I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud.
Starting point is 01:01:45 Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, we'll have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas.
Starting point is 01:02:02 Their practices. And this mental health awareness month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Gorsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the bougie style of Housewives show.
Starting point is 01:02:33 I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise, the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at the end of the day, when people are. at home, they want entertainment. To hear this and more,
Starting point is 01:03:05 listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What would you eat if you had to start over? Real simple, poor man's, poor woman's food. Black beans, chicken, rice, plantains. Yeah. That's poor people's food, man.
Starting point is 01:03:24 But being Nigerian, that's, come on, a go-to. On the podcast, eating while broke, I sit down with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and creators as they revisit the meals they once relied on and the moments that shaped their journey. Named Best Food Podcasts at the 2006 IHeart Podcast Awards. This show is all about real conversations on money, growth, and what it really takes to make it. It was times where me and Lex were like definitely getting into it because we're not making any money. Like I need to start making money.
Starting point is 01:03:53 Like why are we doing this? But I don't know. I think we just always knew that we had something really good and eventually people were going to catch on. And so we just bugged it out. The full season is available to binge. Right now, listen to Eating Wall Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right. The final one of my picks.
Starting point is 01:04:24 So the charges are only minus one and a half. And I looked at that number and thought, why? That's a funky number. No, it's not. The offense, I'm going to take the bingles plus the points here. Here's why. So they played on Thursday. now they get it. Not only do they get extra rest. They don't play until Monday. So it's a strange. It's really a lot of extra rest. As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow, and they're already humming. And the chargers, everybody loves the chargers. They don't have a ton of downfield weapons. They have very few.
Starting point is 01:05:05 plus 20-yard plays. So there's a way they have to play to win, long drives. Long drives are hard, penalties, fumbles. It's hard to create 9, 10, and 11 play drives. Bengals score quickly. They get freebies. I'm going to take the points that Bengals, the rest, sharper square.
Starting point is 01:05:27 Yeah, it's sharp. This number's moved. It opened a two and a half last Sunday. It moved down to about, got down to one, actually, and then bounced up a little bit with some charger money at one and a half. But it's definitely the sharp side. I agree with you. Like you want to be on the Bengals side here for the same reason you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 01:05:48 Do you want to be betting against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has an underdog, is second only to Patrick Mahomes and how well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks? You don't. The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor of the chargers right now, is because this has been a very strange gambling year. You know, to look macro here, you is a businessman as someone who has succeeded far beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks has been earning season for publicly traded companies, right?
Starting point is 01:06:23 That includes sports betting operators. The two major sports betting operators both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year because of what they have defined as customer-friendly outcomes, meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in reduced revenue because so many favorites are winning this year, so many more than expected, right? And what that means is that teams like the Chargers have been over-exceeding the expectation as favorites
Starting point is 01:06:52 because they do exactly what you want them to do. They don't make high-variance coaching decisions because Harbaugh is very consistent. You know what he's going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're really disciplined, so they don't have the stupid penalties that a lot of other teams of having.
Starting point is 01:07:09 And those things have been impacting the games in a much wider way than they have in previous years. So that's why people like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making people money. But the sharp side in this game are the Bengals. Always a game I want you to pick for me. I like Denver at home minus two and a half against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins, not 100%. Penix could play, and though he played it Indiana and
Starting point is 01:07:35 Washington, cold wet weather areas, it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a tremendous pass rush. I do worry that outplaying Kansas City and losing the way they did is an emotional gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there. But Bo Nicks and this Denver team, they know they're not a hoist a trophy team. Like, they know they're going to lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a thin roster. And I think there's value in playing close and outplaying the Super Bowl champs. I think they actually come out of that game thinking,
Starting point is 01:08:05 shit, Bo Necks out played Mahomes. I don't think this is a veteran team that really sags and thinks, you know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs again the following week, you're like, you really have a low-energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here. Tell me why I'm right or wrong.
Starting point is 01:08:23 Well, I actually cannot decide on this game. It's so interesting and you bring it up because early in the week, I loved Atlanta here. I thought to myself, Atlanta really shouldn't have lost that game against New Orleans. And you know I loved New Orleans last week.
Starting point is 01:08:40 I tried to get you to come along with me on New Orleans. You are not having it. You will not bet games that you don't want to watch. Totally get it. Respect the theory. But I felt like at the end of the game,
Starting point is 01:08:52 New Orleans scored three points in the second half. The Falcons missed multiple. field goals, including a field goal that could have tied the game with six minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great against the spread, great straight up, coming off a loss. I really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball. Bejohn has been a different level of player than he was in his rookie season.
Starting point is 01:09:21 He's showing all the things that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield, his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to run people over. I then thought about, okay, two and a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're overvaluing the Broncos and their ability to, and what they did against the Chiefs. And I, like you,
Starting point is 01:09:42 I felt like the Broncos would walk away of that that game against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened. I would not be crushed if I were them at all. I'd be going into thinking, wow, we can hang. Like, we are a really good team. And you and I have talked about this, what Sean Payton has done with Bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams, right?
Starting point is 01:10:02 Like, he is basically thrown the book at him and gotten him better and better and better every single week. And that Falcon's defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix is going to look at this and be like, are they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me because of the difference between how aggressive the chiefs are? So I'm having a hard time finding the winner in this one. I'm probably not going to bet it. I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't really have a strong opinion on this either.
Starting point is 01:10:32 They lean Denver, but you're not seeing people run under the window saying I got to get a ticket on the Broncos. Finally, what's the game I should be betting that I have overlooked? I mean, I can't believe I have to say it. But hello, Cleveland? Like, are you kidding me? We've got the Browns off a by with a healthier defense. What's the line? You look at their injury report.
Starting point is 01:11:03 There's nobody on it. So Kevin Stefansky builds a game plan where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning of the year, would have been a top five offensive line. and you've got a top five defensive line going against Derek Carr, who when he's not pressured, as we saw against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback. And when he is pressured,
Starting point is 01:11:32 basically becomes one of the most losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I not vetting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their Super Bowl? This was the game they had to win. I will not bet on the Saints again this year. That was a one-time thing. Now we'll bet the Browns. And by the way, the wise guys have been betting the Browns.
Starting point is 01:11:55 The line opened to two and a half, down to two, one and a half, one. Now it's a half. There are a lot of places where the Browns, it's going to flip, and they're going to be favorite. So if you want to get it, get it now. Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting. So disgusting. Not only that, you are betting on.
Starting point is 01:12:16 James in his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams a touchdown last year. Like, he is going to, Kevin Stefansky is going to have to do everything he can possibly do. To keep James from making terrible, terrible throws and putting him in bad positions. And then the 15 times that he asks him to throw in the game,
Starting point is 01:12:43 he's just got to cross his fingers and pray. Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half at San Francisco? Zero. Same. Same. I can't get a read. The Niners, can't get a read. You look at the box score, they should have beaten the Buccaneers by 900 points.
Starting point is 01:13:05 Believe me, it was my lock of the year, San Francisco. Yeah. It made no sense. And even like the Jake Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals, the last field goal, they still win by six and they cover the five and a half. So it makes no sense to me. The red zone struggles continue. You got to wonder how much does Brandon I, you not being there really make a difference?
Starting point is 01:13:30 Clearly, it's something. It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian McCaffrey in any injuries. I also wonder, look, Trent Williams, who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and one of the best in the NFL, he missed all the training camp, and he's old. So you've got to ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of an impact? They aren't as dominant an offensive line. They already weren't a great offensive line going into the season. And what Kyle Shanahan schemes usually masks that deficiency, less so this year.
Starting point is 01:14:02 So I don't have an opinion in this. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, like, they just waived their leading tackler. I think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively. I'm going to pass on this game. As always, Chad Millman, thanks, man. Good to see you, brother. The volume. Thanks so much for listening.
Starting point is 01:14:26 If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
Starting point is 01:14:51 Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all. in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 01:15:17 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy, far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot,
Starting point is 01:15:49 or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the look back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 01:16:08 Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 01:16:31 A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.
Starting point is 01:16:47 This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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