The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Defending McDaniels, NBA Decline, Matt Mosley on Dak Blame, ‘Dak or the Field’ + Week 11 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 19, 2022

This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Top Takes, including if Jon Gruden’s next level incompetence should buy Josh McDaniels more time with the Raiders, and what the monster Week 10 Packers/Cowboys rating says about the decline of the NBA’s popularity. Then, longtime Dallas Cowboys writer - and host of The Doomsday Podcast - Matt Mosley joins Colin to discuss Dak Prescott’s share of the blame for the disappointing loss to the Packers, if the honeymoon is over with Dallas fans,’Dak or the Field’ where Colin and Mosley pick Prescott or other top NFL starters, and why Jerry Jones is still so influential despite a mediocre past two decades. Finally, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 11 picks are "sharp" or "square" for Commanders/Texans, Chiefs/Chargers, Eagles/Colts, Cowboys/Vikings, Jets/Patriots, Raiders/Broncos, Bears/Falcons, Bengals/Steelers. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action, and visit Cuts for the latest Fall fits! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. Colin Coward Podcasts presented by FanDual Sportsbook.

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Fandul Sportsbook app, sign up. This is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward podcast. A lot of rants this week. Matt Mosley hopped on talking about Dak, who's been terrible on certain downs. also Chad Millman, Action Network, another edition of Sharp or Square. A lot of things to talk about this week. One of the things that always amuses me about social media is that social media simplifies everything. It takes new out.

One of the things about social media that always amuses me is that it simplifies everything. That success is easy. It's just simple. Success is not easy in any industry. Law, medicine, media, entertainment, agriculture, manufacturing, sales. Success is hard. I bring this up because I hear all these people that want Josh McDaniels fired as head coach of the Raiders. On Twitter, coaching the Raiders is so easy.

Do you realize the organization he inherited, Gruden fired, Mayok fired, Henry Ruggs killed a civilian, another first round pick on Instagram showing guns, got rid of him. Of their first round picks in the last five, six years, four are busts. One's still around, but is a bust. Yeah, four were cut. One's a bust around. The other one, Josh Jacobs, last year of his contract, they probably won't resign him. And then Josh McDaniels had to give up a first and a second round pick to make a big swing to get Devante Adams at wide receiver.

So he inherited a franchise with most of the talent on one side of the ball because of the draft whiffs offense. And then two of the best players got hurt. Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller. That said, the Raiders have only been blown out once. They lost close to the Chargers, overtime to the Cardinals, 2422 to the Titans, 3029 lost to the Chiefs at Kansas City, lost close to the Colts and Jags. Oh and six and one possession games. Those things tend to be kind of random.

My point is, Twitter makes everything seem so simple. It's not. Success doing anything takes work, right? The Raiders are a poorly run organization that Josh McDaniel inherited in chaos. Six close losses, not terrible. That's not fireable. take a deep breath before you claim running a bad company in six months from taking it over is easy. I don't spend a lot of time talking about ratings.

It's kind of an inside the industry discussion, but the Cowboys Packers got 29 million people on average watching that game. That is three times the average of an NBA finals game. And I thought about that because I like the NBA. When I get off this podcast, I will jump on the treadmill and I will watch half of an East Coast NBA game. Four or five times a week, I watch half of an NBA game. I like the league. I have since I was a kid. In fact, it may have been the first sport.

Baseball was the first sport I fell in love with. Basketball was the first one. I started collecting cards, believe it or not. Football is the one I've graduated to. but as much as I like the NBA, I've always felt the media covers it more than it's probably earned. The NBA finals will get a third of a regular season Cowboy Packer game. Packers aren't even good.

Cowboys aren't really a Super Bowl bubble team. It's interesting, right? I like the NBA a lot, but TNT's CEO the other day said, you know, we can live without the NBA. You would never say that about the NFL. In Canada, you would never say that about hockey. In Europe, you would never say that about the English Premier League, right? Right?

In England, the UK. Sometimes I think the media lacks a little self-awareness. I'm sure I'm guilty of this. We cover what we like more often than what the first. fans like. And NBA regular season basketball simply doesn't get a number.

I watch it. I do my homework. I enjoy it. But if you go look at the NBA over the last five years, they've lost big chunks of their fan base.

And right now, there is only one player in the league. Believe it or not, one. Steph Curry. that consistently moves the television needle. LeBron no longer does. Laker games don't get big ratings, even in Los Angeles. Kevin Durant doesn't.

Nets games don't get big ratings in Brooklyn. In fact, last year, the second highest-rated NBA team in a local market was the Cleveland Cavaliers, mostly starless, unless you count Evan Mobley as a big star. Steph Curry's it. One guy moves the needles.

Flashy, three-point artist on a great team, leader of a dynasty. That's it. I watch the coverage of the NBA. And I like it and I'm guilty. But it far exceeds, in my opinion, the interest of the NBA. I think the warriors are very, very interesting. I think there's four or five franchises, Boston, Golden State at the top of that list that are interesting. But when you see that number for an NFL regular season game and it's not even a good packer team. I mean, they're a losing streak entering that game. It tells you what the consumers truly interested in.

My buddy Matt Mosley co-host of the Doomsday podcast with Ed Werder, long time writer. Now he's at Fox Sports. We use them at the volume all the time. Matt, you and Ed Wurter do this podcast, very popular with the kids. The kids love it. And you text me from time to time and you said this one was a doozy, the Doomsday podcast. So what was the, after you lose to the Packers, what was the most intense subject? Because I think you're a common sense guy.

The fourth down Mike McCarthy moved didn't bother me. Didn't love the play call, but it didn't bother me. Was there anything in that game that you and Wurter agreed with that really deeply bothered you about McCarthy, DAC or the performance? I would say that Dax, much like Tony Romo before him, is always the biggest. lightning rod. And I think there are people, boy, if you criticize him at all, some people label you a hater. We've been huge

DAC supporters over the years. Ed and I really liked him, even coming out of college and all that kind of thing. But, well, when you put that kind of performance out there, and then you watch Rogers, who's been down this year, and he's got his own thumb injury and how efficient he was,

and you throw a guy, you know, you need a quarterback to take you to a different level, and maybe help you win that game and he throws 46 times, two picks. We can blame that on some of the receivers or whatever, but I mean, you can't be late. You can't be throwing in the middle of the end zone. So I would say always the quarterback is the biggest point of contention when it comes to the Cowboys.

They're really anywhere in the league. But this particular quarterback, and you've seen it in talking about that, the fact that you're not the biggest DAC. It's not that you can't, don't like the guy or think he's a good player, but the fact that you don't have him as a top 10 quarterback, some people label, well, he's a DAC Hader kind of deal.

So this was the game where they really needed to win. I mean, they would be right there with the Eagles now looking back with the Eagles losing. So I would think that's the, that was what kind of brought the most reaction. And also the fact that Ed

found some kind of nugget that showed these numbers so far this year on third and fourth down for DAC or Tim Tebow-esque. I mean, his completion percentage on third and fourth down, the most crucial downs are somewhere in the neighborhood of 43% completion percentage. And it's embarrassing. And we've got to bring back a guy who is known for being wildly inaccurate to have a comparison. And again, people react and they get angry in Dax defense. And that's what Jerry was doing today. Jerry went on one of his radio shows and was immediately saying, this is the biggest reason we have to win the Super Bowl.

I hear echoes of even the Romo era. When they decide to pay somebody huge money, they have to dig in and always go on the defensive. I promise you, behind closed doors, Jerry is sitting there like, Oh, my gosh. I mean, I can't believe we had that kind of performance. Now, it wasn't all on DAC, but again, he wasn't special. He wasn't great on a day it would have helped if he was really good.

Well, I was just saying this, that college football remarkably, the average is won a year. College football in the 2020 draft gave us four franchise quarterbacks, Jalen Hertz, Burrow, Herbert, and Tua. 2021 draft Matt gave us fields. Mack Jones has already made the playoffs and Trevor Lawrence. That's seven guys that look like they can be franchise quarterbacks in two drafts. And so I think the talent at quarterback, these kids are better now. They've got 10,000 throws by the time they're in ninth grade.

They're in summer camp, seven on seven drills. The quality of the quarterback play in this league is getting better, faster. And I look at Dak. I said this today on my show. Younger, cheaper, healthier, DAC was better than this DAC because that DAC you could surround him with better players. Now, DAC is older, expensive, and more brittle. He hit his ceiling.

He's Kirk Cousins, but more popular. He hit his ceiling in mid-year-two. Dak never had a huge ceiling. His strength was leadership, toughness, guile, mobility, winning. He hit that middle of second evening. The more expensive Dak gets, the less you can support him with, I think the less you get from Dak. He's the rare quarterback. Kirk Cousins is this. The more expensive he is. You think you're getting a better version. The longer he's in the league, now Kirk's having a good year, Matt.

But the more you pay Kirk or Dak, the less you surround them with and you get arguably a worse version of them. Now again, Cousins is having a very good year. But I look at Dack now and I'm like, well, because of what they pay him and Zique, they can't get him a second and third great receiver. And Dack is left to sort of carry the offense. And he's limited. I think Romo is a far more talented thrower of the football than Dack. Is that an outrageous thought? No. No. I think Dack just has uncommon leadership traits. Yes. And if this was about making speeches and talking after games and representing the franchise,

and there is some of that component. But it's a quarterback that right now doesn't, like, when he has to go into a cold weather situation, doesn't perform particularly well. Is that true? Yeah. Yeah. I think if you go back,

And you look at some of his performances over the last few years. And you look at this one. It's about 25 or 30. He looks very uncomfortable. There are times people will rally and tell you, well, it's ankle or whatever injuries he's had in the past. Now, you know, we'll find out if he's brittle. The Cowboys push back heavily against that. But some of the things that made him really good early on was the fact that you could run him.

Now, there were some moments in this game even where, like, in short-yarded situations where you could, he did use that girth. I mean, he's a big, strong guy. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And if you can use him, every once in a while, they'll put some RPO stuff in, and it looks really nice. There are some throws he can make.

But, boy, late across the middle. I mean, think about that. CD ended up having a great game. 10-11 catches for 150 yards, best game in a while. But, I mean, you look at Jefferson with a five. Vikings, they're getting ready to play the Vikings. He's already had in three years like 20 times, 100 yards or more. Cowboys had their first 100 yard wide receiver in like a year. I mean, it's been forever. And part of that has to go on the quarterback. Okay? I sure. I mean, it's, we, everybody talks about Amari. And they do kind of miss him around here. But let's not act like he was just over and over and over 100 yard days. Some of these wide receivers, like the guy we just saw with the Vikings, what they did of Buffalo are going to get you, no matter if you think Cousins is the greatest quarterback or not.

This receiver is going to, they're going to elevate each other. He's going to make Cousins look great because Cousins can throw it up there and this guy will make phenomenal catches. You know, CD kind of wanders around sometimes. And again, you'll see these quarterbacks and you know it. And Tony used to do it himself when they go back over there

and they've got their hands up and boy, you did. And both the announcers are quick to say, bad route. Oh, bad route there by CD. But at some point, quarterback's got to take ownership for that. And he is a tremendous leader. I don't know if I would agree with you that he's brittle. And I still think, you know, again, the best thing you can say about the Cowboys right now is this NFC doesn't look that great. Eagles kind of got exposed a little bit. I don't know if the Vikings are, that great. There's a team that could break through here that's really not that awesome.

And that's the greatest hope the Cowboys have right now is that a kind of watered down to NFC. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fandulul America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets. back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin.

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official sports book partner of the National Football League. 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. Permitted perishes only. Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. First online, real money wager only. Refundit refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.Fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1-800, next step, or text next step to 533, 42, Arizona, 1888-8-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7.7. Or visit catt. Connecticut, 100, gambler, or visit Fandul.com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey and Virginia.

18777-7-7-1-1-7-1-7-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. In Louisiana, 800-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games, and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions,

my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, This platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment.

And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Okay, let's play a game with Dak. Because he's been a bad, you know, you said it. On third and fourth down, he's been in these high leverage situations, he's been poor.

So let me ask you. We judge quarterbacks a lot of ways. But Matt, is it fair if I said two minutes to go in the game against a reasonably solid defense with reasonably solid receivers? So I'm going to ask you, I'm going to put quarterbacks out and you tell me if you like that quarterback or DAC. There's two minutes to go in a game. All these quarterbacks, this isn't baseball. We don't care about staff. We care about winning games, high leverage situations, moving the chains, getting into the end zone, and winning games.

That's what Brady does. That's what Mahomes does. So I'm going to put, and let's say they all have even talent. Okay. So Mahomes DAC is an easy one, right? Mm-hmm. I'm taking K. Burrow DAC to me is an easy one.

Yeah. Yeah. Recent struggles aside, Josh Allen, Dak, who would you choose? Alan. Okay, so let's get those three are easy ones. Those are easy. Okay, we saw it Sunday. Aaron Rogers or Dak.

He has to go with Rogers. Brady or Dak. Brady. Okay. We're at five. I'm going slow. I don't want to rush the audience or you mostly. No, no.

So we're at five. down we would take for sure. Justin Herbert or Dack. That was close. I'd probably take Herbert. Okay. We're at six. Okay.

Lamar Jackson or Dack. Lamar. Okay. So now we start getting into an interesting territory. Kirk Cousins or Dack. I think I'd almost say that's a pick-em, but I would, I would, I would go with DAC.

Okay, I would go with Kirk, who I think is simply a more accurate thrower consistently over his career. He's a more accurate distributor of the ball. So I'm at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, you're at 7. So at best you would have DAC. Now I'm trying to think of who am I missing here.

Jalen Hertz or Dak? That's a difficult one. Based on how he's played for much of this season, I'd probably lean Jalen right now. Tua or DAC. I'm going to go with DAC. I'm going to go Tua simply because I think he's a more accurate distributor of the football. Okay.

So you're 8 of 10. I'm 10 of 10. Okay. Now it gets dicey. Now I'm going to press you a little bit here. Okay. Deshawn Watson when he comes back or Dak? I'm going to go with with watching.

Okay. You're 9 of 11. I'm 11 of 11. Ryan Tannahill or DAC. Yeah, I would take Dak. Okay, so that's my first DAC. So I am 11 of 12. of 12

not DAC. Tanna Hill, DAC, I take DAC. You're closer to 9 of 12 DAC. Yes. And by the way,

you paused on Tua. You paused on Kirk Cousins. I like him simply because they're really high percentage, completion percentage. Guys, let me throw one more at you. Jimmy Garapolo. Jimmy Garoppolo or Dak.

Jimmy Garoppel or Dap. We kind of saw this. Last year in the playoffs, this is this is a tough one, but I would probably, I'd probably go with Garoppolo just honestly. Yes. Been in bigger games and he's done it. He's made it happen in bigger games. Yep. I'm 12 of 13.

So I guess my point in this exercise was this. We love the leadership of DAC, but this league, this is not baseball, where we romanticized numbers or basketball where flare and style matter. two minutes left, maybe one time out, reasonably solid defense, equal weapons. Dax, Dax's like the 12th best quarterback in the league. 12, 13. He's paid like he's top five. That to me is the rub. That's the problem.

And it's interesting because Romo, we knock him for not winning more, not winning more playoff games. Yet if compared to the people of his day, I think Romo, would have fared much better. Now, if the exercise became like kind of what Jerry likes to bring up, who am I starting my team with or who am I trying to start the season with or who could I build around? I might answer it differently than just the two-minute question.

I mean, he does have, it's remarkable, the intangibles. But they're now having to retreat and go back to trying to win with him. to the era where you're talking about. Actually, his rookie season. They're trying to take a 28, 29-year-old quarterback and go back and recapture what he was at 22.

It's a very strange thing. It doesn't happen with most quarterbacks because that was when Zeke was great, and that was when DAC, you know, came in and they managed them extremely well. And boy, Garrett, that was the zenith of his time with the Cowboys. And so it's a very, very strange thing.

You ask a guy who doesn't like being in charge of run-based offenses in Mike McCarthy to try to reverse time and take a quarterback back to who he was as a rookie. But that speaks to your point of, well, Dak was at his best. Now, I wouldn't, I leave the ceiling open to him still doing something big with the Cowboys. And part of that is because nobody's great. everybody's great this year and it's kind of like, well, why not, why not the Cowboys? Why couldn't they get on a roll? Cowboys were always on, I mean, it's like this thing could spiral.

They could lose to the Vikings. They've got to play immediately. And before you know it, they're sitting there six and five, are they going to be in the, are they going to be in the playoffs? Or they win Sunday, turn around and win again. And you look up in their eight and three, they're great. They're chasing the Eagles down. and then they go into Eagles land with a chance to truly get back in the division race.

I mean, this is the ultimate boomer bus team in the NFL right now. And there are probably several that we can identify. But, I mean, I don't know that either to end. And so McCarthy is either going to get an extension or get fired. There's just no in between at all. And there's a chance. There's a chance this team makes it the NFC title game. You know what people would do around here if they made it the NFC title game?

They would treat it like the Super Bowl because it's been 26 years since they've been to an NFC title game. Like it wouldn't people sometimes go, Cowboys are measured by Super Bowls. They aren't anymore. They aren't anymore. Like an NFC title just qualified. You know how we beat up Aaron Rogers? Oh, he can't do it. Right.

Only won one Super Bowl. If you could give Romo or DAC, Roger's playoff record or Rogers' accomplishments in terms of getting to NFC title games. I mean, every Cowboys fan would trade with them in a heartbeat. Because you know what he does? He gets you there over and over and over again, and there's something to be said for that. Is Jerry Jones popular in Dallas? How's he viewed?

Well, yeah, he's popular everywhere. I mean, it's kind of like we've got these most popular owners in all the professional sports. They're all down here. I mean, Cubans the same way. But Cubans love, Cubans well liked, I believe. I guess. I mean, there's some, there's Mavericks fans who would push back on that. He's more beloved outside than he, Jerry is just sort of like everybody just has learned that they've got to put up with him.

It's never going to change. dynamic the family dynamic is never going to change and although he just turned 80 i think everybody understands that he'll be doing this till he's 96 or 97 years old he's not i mean this thought of like oh jerry's going to die someday no we don't i don't i don't buy into that i guess he has to at some point but i don't think so i think people um there's a jerry is the perfect kind of Texan, you know, and being a guy from Arkansas, he just fits in beautifully because people like kind of hucksters and funny, and he has all that. And so he just fits in beautifully with all the oil and all that stuff. So at this point, people are just like, it's never going to change.

I mean, that doesn't mean people don't constantly, year after year, bring in somebody, let somebody else make the decisions. But so, yeah, he's, I just, think he's, I mean, he's beloved by the media. Maybe more than he is. Maybe that's the way to say it. Maybe more than he is actually from the fandom. The media, there's no relationship in all the professional sports like the one Jerry enjoys with local media here. And he furnishes you guys with good content.

Correct. It's constant. And it bothers. I should put this out, it bothers certain head coaches. Even though McCarthy doesn't have a huge ego, he notes it. I've watched this happen after college games. He will watch and see who's late getting to his press conference because they've been out talking to Jerry.

And he'll even note it. He'll say it. And he kind of does it in a little bit of a joking way. But he's serious about it. Because I think an old school Pittsburgh guy like him thinks, can you believe that people would be hanging out out there talking to Jerry instead of in here talking to the head coach? But you go where the best quote is.

You go where the best story is. And the coach is only going to be here for a short time. We know that Jerry's going to be here forever. That's well put mostly. All right. I didn't have the best week, but I felt most of my games were go-either-way games. I mean, I lost that Bears game,

but I still thought I was on the right side. Chad Milman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Fandil. So it's a bounceback week. Didn't love all the lines. There's a lot of plus three or minus three, and I think the numbers are right. So as we venture into Sharper Square on a Friday morning,

I'll start with one of those games. Texans getting three or three and a half. The Texans have been in most of their games. Washington short week comes off a highly emotional win. where they played nearly perfect football. We tend to get a little hyperbolic if a team looks great on a standalone game. Texans at home getting a field goal or more, I'd take that side. Go look at their results.

They've been in game, sharp or square? Sharp, 100% sharp. This was immediately bet. I bet it at plus three. Unfortunately, I bet it too early. It went up to three and a half. the wise guys have now come back and taking it down back to three. There might be a couple three and a halves out there.

If you can find a three and a half, take it. Three is still the right side for me. It's a huge pros Joe's game about 80% of the money coming in on the Texans and about 58% of the money coming in on the commanders. The Texans, you mentioned it, they outplayed the Giants. Look, they average six yards per play against the Giants. They completely outplayed them. There's massive Washington inflation after beating Philly on Monday night.

This was the first game that I bet. Tuesday morning, looked at the lines, saw the Texans at plus three. I was worried it was going to go to two and a half. I was worried the wise guys would nail it. Through week 10, the Texans have been the unluckiest NFL team per our luck rankings, which quantifies a lot of different metrics that basically say, this team will regress back to the mean, they have been incredibly unlucky against the Giants. Two red zone turnovers, two red zone field goals did them in. You're getting a couple of points of value based on the

perception right now. Take the Texans. Another game that jumped out to me later today, Chargers plus five and a half at home. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should both play. Offensive lines in better shape. You know, the Chiefs have not necessarily been a great cover team. They win. They don't necessarily cover. It feels like a make or break game for the Chargers. This one feels obvious to me, five and a half chargers, sharper square. Yeah.

So this one opened at seven. And this one, again, you know, we do that segment, Sharp calls on the favorites. Me and my BFF, Simon Hunter, where the wise guys will call us in the middle of the week. After hearing the first episode of the week, we get to the second episode. They're telling us what they liked and what they didn't like about what we said.

We love the. chargers in our first episode on Tuesday a plus seven. By late Thursday, it was at five and a half. I still like the chargers at five and a half. I like them a little bit less just because you're not getting the best of the number and you want to get the best of the number in these scenarios. The key here is that Patrick Mahomes historically does really well as a favorite of less than three and a half is under 500 as a favorite of more than three and a half. It's hard to go on the road. the chiefs have not been winning by big numbers. And even against the Jags, I like the Jags last week plus nine and a half.

They missed two field goals, right? So even then, the score is not indicative of what happened on the field. The Chargers are going to be the right side here. I'm going to take the Eagles minus six and a half at the Colts. So I think we're overplaying the emotional elevation of the Colts for Jeff Saturday. Dan Campbell, briefly, was Mr. Magic in Miami. Philadelphia is a good team that played like crap and could not get the ball back in the first half. They're a much better team.

We still have an MVP candidate quarterback, better O-line and D-line play. You see the Eagles picked up some interior D-Linman this week. I think the Colts are a bad team. I know they're a favorite, but I like the Eagles to blow them out, Sharper Square. There's a reason why the Eagles had to pick up defensive line help. There's a reason why the commanders controlled the line of scrimmage for something like 40 minutes. It's because the Eagles defensive line is missing Jordan Davis. And Fletcher Cox had to play 70 plays.

And he was admitting in the middle of the week, he was feeling it a little bit. In comes in Dama Khan Sioux, who really, who hasn't played this. year. So now you're signing a guy off the street who's kind of got some tread on him and is past his prime, way past his prime, and plugging him in, hoping that you're going to play better against an offensive line that can be equal to what Washington just did with a significantly better running back who's finally healthy. So I wasn't playing the emotional resonance of Jeff Saturday coming in.

I'm playing the fact the coach just have a better. better offensive line and have a running game that I think can beat up on the Eagles defensively. So you got to take the Colts here. And this line's been coming down. Like it was at eight and a eight. It was seven and a half. It was seven. I took it at seven. I waited a little bit too long. It's getting a little bit lower. Like you're alone on this one, Colin. Otherwise guys like the Colts. I like the Cowboys minus one and a half at the Vikings. An exhausting wildly emotional. game against Buffalo. Dallas had opportunity after opportunity to beat Green Bay. They were controlling them at Lambo in the third quarter. Also, the left tackle for the Vikings, who's been

fantastic, could be hurt. Michael Parsons off his worst game of the year. I take Dallas straight up to beat Viking Sharper Square. Totally sharp. The wise guys are in love, in love with this game. And this is like one of the biggest pros Joe's disparities that we have on the board this week. When I'm talking about pros Joe's, I talk about tickets are the Joe's. The number of betting tickets, $10, $15, $20 coming in on one side. And the money, those are the pros coming in on the other side, huge disparity in this game. Look, everyone says it. The Vikings have been one of the luckiest teams this year.

They're winning in less than one score of games. We saw it again this past week. This past week, their collective win probability in the game makes them the second luckiest winners in the NFL since 2014. Number one, by the way, Miami Dolphins against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year. This is a mediocre team in every single respect. This is a mediocre team in the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the DVOA.

Cowboys are fourth. Minnesota is 17th. Estimated wins. So if you take away sort of the one score elements and you just look at the overall stats, Dallas should have 7.7 wins. Minnesota should have 4.5 wins. Yars per play on offense. Minnesota's 16th.

Yards per play allowed. They're 28th. This is Dallas. Every single wise guy will tell you Dallas should be favored by three in this game. Okay. Another game I liked. The Jets were able to get. get a rush with four people.

If you look at Mack Jones' numbers, they are regressing badly. He is now no better than Zach Wilson on six or seven vital stats. If the numbers three and a half and what I think will be a very low scoring game between two very good defensive coaches, that's just too much. The weather could be choppy. New England just doesn't score a lot and the jets don't allow you to score a lot. They discombobulated the Packers at Lambo. If I get three and a half, I would take the jets.

That just seems, again, low scoring, Jets front, real pressure on Mack Jones, who is acknowledged this year has been a struggle for him with no offensive coordinator. Jets plus three and a half, sharper square. The flip side is that, what is it, three weeks ago, the Jets and the Patriots played in New York, New Jersey. The Patriots were three-point favorites in that game. they ended up winning by five. So three weeks later, after a big Jets win against the Bills, the Patriots now go home and they are three-point favorites again. So you're telling me in those three weeks with one win that is dynamic against a Jets team, a Bills team that might not be as good as we thought it was, the Patriots are all of a sudden still just three-point favorites.

So that three-point edge that you get by playing at home is washed away in three weeks, that is a massive. weeks. That is a massive, massive adjustment. The Patriots are the Wise Guys side here. The Patriots have been betting the Wise guys have been betting the Patriots. They bet them at three. It's wide going up to three and a half. I would still take it at three and a half. I might even take it at four. I think the Patriots, Mack Jones might be complaining, but their running game is doing really well. And I am not actually as big a hater on Matt Patricia running that offense as other people. have been, I think he's kind of figured something out. So of the wise guys.

They like the Patriots. All right, I'm going to take the Raiders plus two and a half at Denver off a buy. Denver is awful. Could not get into the Red Zone. The Raiders are in six one possession losses. They're in games. They have a legitimate quarterback. They have a functional coach.

I can't, Denver can't be a favorite over anybody. Can you imagine coming in off a buy week and you can't get into the red zone? against the Titan team missing five starters. The Raiders are the better team. This goes to my Arizona-Seattle situation where twice Seattle got points. Seattle is a better team. The Raiders are the better team than Denver.

Of course I'm taking points, sharper square. So, yeah, the Raiders are the better team. The wise guys will be betting the Raiders. It's a really interesting game. Because when these two teams met earlier in the season, you had almost an entirely different lineup for the Denver Broncos. You won't have Randy Gregory in this game. You had him in that game.

You won't have Bradley Chubb in this game. You had them in that game. You're not going to have KJ. Hamler. You had them in that game. Jerry Judy potentially injured. You have a lot of injuries on the offensive line. And as we know, this offense is terrible, right? The last time a team was last in scoring offense and first in scoring defense,

1946. I think everyone saw the stat this week. If the Broncos had scored more than 17 points in any of their games this year, they'd be 8 and 1. So I think you're getting the right side in the Raiders. All right, we always finish with two things. I ask you about a game that I'm not going to bet.

You can potentially talk me into it. Bears plus three at the Falcons Chicago would have been my side. I thought they outplayed Detroit. But Atlanta can take the ball away from you with a run game and Justin Fields, who's a little heavy legged now because they're depending on them a lot. How would you play it? So I like the bears in this game, but I'm waiting to see if it gets back to three and a half. It was at three and a half.

I think if it can get there, I'd probably play the Bears. At a field goal, it's a pass for me. But honestly, the Bears, the last few weeks, have been offensive juggernauts, right? And this is the one thing that Justin Fields has shown other than his legs is when he's not being pressured. He's a pretty good passer. And right now, the Falcons can't get any pressure on the quarterback. The league's worst pressure rate. And their secondary is still shorthanded.

Meanwhile, their offense has been fading a little bit. Mark's Mariotta is sort of becoming who we thought he would be. And so are the Falcons going to be able to score enough to keep up with the Bears? They're both incredibly bad defenses. The Bears' offense to me is a little more potent. And I think Justin Fields is a better quarterback. So I'm just hoping that the number, as we get closer to the game, gets back up to three and a half. Finally in Sharper Square, Chad Millman, give me a game I haven't brought up that you think is a gem.

Well, look, you brought up the chargers, which I was surprised and pleasantly surprised that you brought them up. you threw the Broncos at me, which we hadn't even talked about and sort of when I start to get word of what you might be interested in. So the other game that is interesting to me, let me see if I can convince you with this. Because last week, we talked about the Niners and the Chargers. And I told you I was making an executive decision. The Wise guys were really all over the Niners. I loved the Chargers in the spot, right?

I'm going to do the same thing this week. the Steelers and the Bengals. The wise guys love the Steelers. They love that TJ Watt is back. They love Mike Tomlin as a home dog. They are impressed by their performance last week. So are we. We both love the Steelers last week.

This line has moved from five and a half down to five to four and a half to four to three and a half. I'm taking the Bengals. I think I've got the better quarterback. I've got the better team. I've got a team that won last week coming off the by with a new quarterback. They're a little bit lower emotionally. I feel like this is a really good spot for the Bengals to take into the leap forward in their quest to get back to the playoffs. Also, the Steelers off a by beat the Saints in a short week.

So Kenny Pickett had extra days to prepare. Now, Kenny is the quarterback with fewer days to prepare against the significantly better quarterback. So Burrow does. At three, I would take them. These divisional rivalry games are close. But Pickett now goes from having that advantage of extra prep to facing a significantly better quarterback that has the advantage over him. It does feel like the Bengals are the side.

It does feel like the Bengals are the side. I will tell you, I don't know that it's going to get to three. I hope it does. I took it at three and a half because I'm starting to see numbers out there where it could go back to four, before it goes back down to three. So I took it at three and a half. I might have rushed.

I got a little antsy. I don't know. Sometimes I get impatient. But it'll be interesting. Look, when we do the podcast, when we do the favorites, when Simon and I do the favorites, we will have one bet every week that we call our big balls bet of the week. It's the bet that nobody else is making that feels kind of ugly. And we were debating this week between the chargers and the bangles.

And we ultimately went with the bangles. All right. good stuff. I'm trying to bounce back this week. As always, all odds provided by Fandul. Thanks, buddy. Good to see you, man. Make sure to check out the Dremont Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network.

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