The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Eagles Find Identity, Niners Defense, Lamar Jackson, Sharp or Square
Episode Date: October 28, 2023Colin’s top takes of the week! He points out that the Eagles finally found their identity against the Dolphins, identifies a missing piece that’s caused the 49ers defense to take a step back, and ...explains why Dana White partnering with a controversial sponsor is selfish… and why that’s a GOOD thing. John Middlekauff, host of “3 And Out” drops in to talk about Lamar Jackson’s MVP level play and why USC has completely become dependant on heroics from Caleb Williams. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 8 NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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A win is a win.
I don't care what I'm saying.
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The volume.
This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman, Sharper Square.
We've both been pretty hot recently,
John Middilcoff on Lamar Jackson,
Jordan Love, and Caleb Williams.
And my top takes of the week.
You know, my first takeaway on Philadelphia's resounding,
win. In the second half, you know, they just leaned on them.
It's so much of Miami, I've been calling them the speedboat of the NFL.
You know, the fake Gucci shoes, loafers, the fake gold watch, the speedboat.
You know, it's really fast and really flashy and really fun, but this team's not built
for November, December, January football.
And that's why the Kansas City Chiefs are the current dynasty.
They can do both.
They can play real defense and dominate the line of scrimmage and be flashy and fun.
Miami has yet to prove they can just do the flashy fun stuff, which flourishes in September and October and early November, and then it doesn't.
So the two teams that have faced them, Buffalo and Philadelphia that are physical teams, have pushed them all over the ring.
But let me talk about Philadelphia first, that, you know, I don't like the aesthetics, the optics of the brotherly shove, the tush push, whatever you want to call it.
And I do think you have to worry about, I mean, the NFL is a TV show.
It is.
Baseball has never understood this.
Networks have helped them a little over the last few years,
but the NFL's always understood,
we make our money in TV.
We're a TV show.
It's not good TV.
It's why the NFL's cut back on preseason games,
empty seats, looks bad.
It's why the NFL got rid of the no-catch rule.
It looked bad.
It's really smart.
You're a TV show.
That's where all the money comes from.
So I don't think it looks very good,
and I don't think you want everybody in the league doing it.
But I was thinking about this tonight.
Why does the Tushcheon,
push, the Broad Ortee vogue worked for Philadelphia. Well, two reasons. They have the best center,
Jason Kelsey, probably in over a decade in the NFL, top five center ever. And Jalen Hertz,
a small, powerful, 600-pound bench-press quarterback, was built for it. Well, that's just the coach
identifying the talent of his players. Innovative, ingenuity,
Don't we want to reward that in all businesses?
It's not like the Eagles have a passive owner.
You know, Jeffrey Lurie owns it,
and they have this guy that owns 5%
and he's a shoe designer and he created a cleat that he put a patent on
that he won't let anybody else build.
And the cleat has an ability to have some sort of physical advantage
over other shoes in the NFL and nobody else can buy it or use it.
No, that feels like the Houston.
and Astros. This is a coaching staff saying hurts, his strength, Jason Kelsey, and they designed a play
that people are trying to duplicate. And they can't. It's a business model. Nobody can duplicate.
And for that reason, because I'm all for trying new stuff, I kind of respect the hell out of it.
It's not good to look at. I wouldn't want to see, you know, when the Wildcat started, thank God it didn't
work very long. Do you really want the NFL hiking the ball to a tailback? It's not, it doesn't look good.
And this stuff matters. I mean, the commissioners that understand the television dynamic and baseball,
you know, Bud Seleague didn't. He was, he was leaning into seamheads and traditionalists.
They're not paying the bills. TV is. So I don't love the look of it. I don't love the look of it.
I think it, you know, some teams are trying to duplicate it.
it was six-five quarterbacks and six-six quarterbacks and skinny quarterbacks.
It doesn't work.
But it is innovative.
There's a genius to it.
It's a coaching staff identifying it.
Kind of like it.
Learning to like it.
So it was an upset weekend in the NFL as the Vikings who played several levels above themselves beat the 49ers 22 to 17 at home.
Surprising for a lot of reasons, the Vikings weren't very good this season.
The Niners were excellent.
and that Kirk Cousins historically shrinks in primetime games.
He has a bad record on Monday night football and against playoff teams in his career
and was about, after that first interception, was about as good as I think I've ever seen
Kurt Cousins play.
We also saw the Bill's big favorites get beat by the BB gun offense of the New England Patriots,
a couple of small upsets, but four one-win teams went on to win this weekend.
And it happens in the NFL.
margins are much closer. It's why the NFL is so much more popular than college football. It's because
you go into a college football weekend. And, you know, if you get two upsets, it feels really special.
In the NFL, you get weekends like this when teams that are going nowhere beat teams with a
really good shot to make the Super Bowl. You know, again, I said this today on FS1. I don't think
less of the Detroit Lions getting clobbered by the Ravens. NFC teams are one in 16 against Lamar
Jackson, right? Like if you've never played against Lamar Jackson live, it's a shock to the system.
You get avalanched. The way to beat a Lamar Jackson, a team like that is, you know, you play them
repeatedly and can figure out the Rubik's cube a little on how to slow down Lamar Jackson.
So, you know, I don't think anything less of the 49ers. I think the 49ers, when they have
Trent Williams back and Debo Samuel, and I have a complete unit, they won't be playing, there's a good chance.
will be playing a playoff game or two at home.
But needless to say, this just happens in the NFL.
And I do think there's one thing to worry about after the 49ers.
So they've been kind of injury plagued, not ravaged, but injury plagued for several years.
It's becoming an older team, Trent Williams and Kittle.
Boas has got some, you know, a lot of physicality and miles on those tires.
There's a lot of, you know, the linebackers.
They've been in the league for a while.
And so as you get older, you have more injuries.
You just hope collectively everybody's ready to go by the playoffs.
But last year, the defensive coordinator was D'Amico Ryans.
So he is a former player, very good.
He was a quick rising star as a coach.
The Niners named him as like a defensive coach, linebacker coach, coordinator, head coach, Texans.
I mean, it was four or five year period.
he flew through the organization of the 49ers.
And I can remember his third year, people saying,
oh, this guy's going to be a head coach.
And you're like, he was just playing years ago.
He didn't go to the college level.
He didn't bounce around the league.
He coached for one team, the Niners, quality control on defense,
linebacker, defensive coordinator, gone.
And he's been excellent so far with the Houston, Texas.
Steve Wilkes, college head coach for a year losing record.
NFL head coach for a year.
Disaster was fired.
Then went to Carolina interim.
But Steve Wilkes bounced around college and pro coaching forever.
A lot of jobs, a lot of cities.
It was not a rising star.
And like we've all had, most of us have had, like one boss that's just exceptional.
I mean, I've been in this business 30 years.
I've worked with some really good people.
Haven't had, you know, only a couple of like, wow.
And they usually are in and out of the building quickly, right?
It's rare for anybody in any business.
You know, you see sometimes you have a co-worker or a boss and you're like, wow, they're a visionary.
That person, she's great.
He's great.
They just, and that was D'Meiko Ryans, flew through the Niners organization.
First team he coached with, and he was gone, head coach.
And so I think they're just not as good.
I noted this several times on FS1.
They're not as good in the red zone defensively as they have been in pretty.
previous years. And it's, I think that's a coaching thing. You know, we always talk about offensive
coordinators, but we rarely talk about big leaps with defensive coordinators. Dan Quinn for the
Cowboys has certainly been excellent. But I mean, if you look at the Vikings tonight, I mean,
Kirk Cousins in that offense, 452 yards with an average O line, no Justin Jefferson,
they moved off Delvin Cook, and they passed for almost 380 yards, 6.5.5.5.5.5.5.5.5
eight yards of play, 24 first downs, eight for 13 on third down, you know, you lose to Miko
Ryan's, they've lost their edge. They're not, the Niners are not as good situationally coaching
on defense. Brock Purdy was, you know, now we've seen Brock Purdy last couple of weeks playing
from behind. And, you know, it's not quite as special, as I've said many times. I think
Brock Pretty's good. And I thought tonight you saw Troy Aikman pointed this out, Brock Pretty six to seven
times throws the ball down the field, higher risk throws, and throws it accurately a lot.
Now, he had a couple of picks, one a bad pick, could have been on the receiver.
But I've said this about Jordan Love.
He just can't throw the ball down the field.
He's completing 38% of his throws, 10 plus yards.
Like Green Bay's got a problem at quarterback.
Brock Purdy moves well enough, throws the ball aggressively down the field, and for the most
part, very accurately.
But there's a big difference in this league playing with a league.
and a run game at home and trailing the entire game on the road.
And Brian Flores is bringing heat with every snap,
sometimes do his detriment like that Christian McCaffrey touchdown.
But that's a different ballgame playing from behind.
You've got to throw.
Everybody knows it.
Brian Flores tends to be hyper-aggressive, just a different ballgame.
And so there's very few quarterbacks in my life that you can't distinguish a difference
between their playing with elite or trailing.
I think Brady was one of them.
Elway was one of them. Patrick Malholmes is one of them, and I can't think of a fourth.
Another topic I had today is I thought it was a gutsy move. One of my favorite things about
Dana White and the UFC is sort of this quality that he is willing to put himself out there
and be completely vulnerable and be hated. During COVID, you know, a lot of people, the media
was really pushing back when Dana White went and leased an island. And he just said, I don't give a rip.
I don't think my fighters are in peril, in danger.
I'm going to go to an island.
And he was right.
35-year-old athletes were not in danger.
Kids were not in danger, despite what the media wanted to claim.
And so Dana, again, took a big swing recently with Bud Light.
So Bud Light, real men of genius, very popular beer.
And then they had a marketing pivot to something that I thought was for a lot of people.
It was just, it was too much too quickly.
But I wasn't outraged by it because I don't know if I've ever had above light.
I'm not a full outrage guy.
And one of the things I thought about is the UFC fans have pushed back on Dana,
and Dana's pushed back on them,
is that one of the things I've always appreciated about Dana,
and Dana and I have gone back and forth on stuff,
whether Dana and I agree on things,
he's totally up front with me.
I try to be totally upfront with him.
He's confrontational.
I can be.
We've resolved any,
brief issues we've had. And we don't already have many because I think I really respect him and
he's always been good to me. But one of the things that happened, so I went to three UFC cards this
summer. And I knew Donald Trump was going to be at one or two of them. I knew that beforehand.
But I wasn't going to let Trump, who I think is a buffoon and a narcissist get in the way of my
fun. And the reason being is there's an old adage, be less selfish. I don't believe in it.
At the volume, I believe our motto should be, be more selfish. Because,
more selfish means happy and less fake outrage. You don't, you don't really care what the marketing
campaign for Bud Light is. He just needed something to be outraged by. Remember years ago, people outraged
by the Dixie Chicks. Let's be honest, you didn't love their music. That's okay. Wasn't my cup of tea
either. Is that when you're selfish, and by the way, you loved Michael Jordan, he was selfish.
All you MJ fans, MJ didn't pass. Punch the teammate. People, people,
called him an ass, difficult. You don't like LeBron. LeBron passes and elevates others. You love Kobe and
MJ. Tom Brady didn't let his backup have snaps. He wanted Garoppolo out of town, selfish. I'm on Team
Tom. Garoppolo shouldn't get snaps. Brady should get all of them. Do you want to win Super Bowls?
Garoppolo's not the guy. Brady was. Do you want to want titles? Don't pass to Matthew Delvedova.
Take the shot, LeBron. Michael Jordan. Take more.
more shots. Kobe, take more shots. People look at selfish as mean. I look at selfish as often
realistic and happy. I care about my wife and my children, my business, my employees, and a small
group of friends. I go to UFC cards even if Trump is there. Why would I let Trump get in the way of
my happiness? I'm going to be selfish and have fun. I took my cousin Matt, and then my friend Eric
and his kids. I didn't care if Trump was there. I would never vote for Trump.
I'm not going to let Trump dissuade my plans, getting the way of my happiness.
The athletes that we truly love are selfish.
Brady, M.J., Kobe, Shaq.
I mean, how many commercials does Shaq have?
600.
You think he's worried about you?
He's worried about his commercials and his bank.
Good for Shaq.
Shaq takes care of Shaq.
Oh, for the record, Travis Kelsey, who's dating Taylor Swift, who's worth like $4 billion?
He did a Pfizer commercial and a Bud-like commercial.
He's not pretending he's outraged.
He's taking care of Travis Kelsey and his business.
I don't have to agree with it, but he's not faking outrage.
He's being sort of selfish.
And I love the Chiefs.
And I'm going to keep watching them because they're usually the most entertaining team in the league on Sunday.
Am I not going to watch the Chiefs and Travis Kelsey?
I can't watch that whole Pfizer thing.
You don't want to get a vaccine, don't get one.
What do I care?
But I want to watch Travis Kelsey is that when I see all this outrage and I can't believe this
politician and this band and this beer company, I don't care.
I just want to have fun and be happy.
I have people occasionally say, you know, Colin, you have a great job.
I'm like, yeah, I get up.
I get to talk about sports.
It's just, I'm happy.
When I first met my wife, she said, you just really, you live your best life.
I'm like, yeah, I'd love you to be part of it.
But I don't have a lot of time to be unhappy.
Jerry Jones always says this.
I don't have a lot of time for a bad time.
You view selfish as mean.
I view it as happy.
Dana White said, they want to pay us $100 million.
We had multiple Bieler sponsors interested.
I'm going to go and get Bud Light's money and do a business deal with Bud Light.
If you don't want to watch UFC, don't.
I'll take your seats.
I'll take your seats.
But I don't let people get in the way of my fun,
politicians, beer companies, ad campaigns, musicians, Hollywood.
What do I care what a Hollywood writer votes?
If the show's funny, I watch.
I figure everybody that works for Netflix who writes and acts is probably left-leaning.
I probably disagree with them that 90% of their political views.
Who do I care?
If the show's funny, I'm watching.
Netflix's and chill.
Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.
It's the enhanced games.
Some call it grotesque.
say it's unleashing human potential.
Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win.
A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying.
Yep, that's me.
Clipper Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits.
the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,
or my career in sports media.
Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.
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Do you remember when Diana Ross
double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Or when Kanye said that you're
George Bush didn't like black people.
I know what you're thinking.
What the hell does George Bush
got to do a little kill?
Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.
I'm Sam J.
And I'm Alex English.
Each episode, we pick it here,
unpack what went down,
and try to make sense of how we survived it.
Including a recent episode
with Mark Lamont Hill
waxing all about crack in the 80s.
To be clear, 84 is big to me,
not just because of crack.
I'm down to talk about crack all day,
but just so y'all know.
I mean, at this point,
Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed correct.
So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.
We also have AIDS on the table right now.
Thank you for finishing that sentence.
I don't think there's a more important year for black people.
Really?
Yeah.
For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.
Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
John Middlekoff, former NFL Scout, 3 and Out at the volume.
So I had said on this podcast,
podcast and on FS1 multiple times that I had heard from a source I trust who had been around the Packers during the Jordan Love years. There was just no special. It wasn't bad game manager. We saw how cautiously they coached him in the preseason. We know they give their quarterback protection. They've got excellent backs, young but emerging tied in wide receivers. Today, Jordan Love, again, if you didn't watch the game, you're like, well, one interception, a couple of touchdown passes. You know, he was like 20 for 20.
Well, one of the touchdown passes was a deflection.
The other one could have easily been intercepted.
It was a jump ball.
And one of his biggest plays of the day was a dump off to a running back, and the Broncos' defense surrendered 30 yards.
Is that it really becomes dumped down stuff.
I don't see him accurately, consistently throw the ball down the field.
I mean, now, Russell Wilson's lost confidence.
He missed on a four-yard swing pass that he threw too low.
He was like pushing the ball.
That's a quarterback who's lost confidence.
But I watched Jordan Love and you're a former NFL scout.
Like you can't, I don't see it.
I don't see it at all.
It's game managing four years in.
Yeah, today was ugly.
Obviously Denver's terrible on defense.
We've seen all season long.
And like you said, the only plays they could really mustered up to get any flow in their
offense, I mean, early on their offense was pretty embarrassing.
where screen passes were schemeed up kind of wide receiver screen.
Yes.
To me, the two touchdowns, like you said, if you just go to the box score,
you're like, oh, he threw two touchdowns.
I think Sir Tann picks that off 70% of the time, the one, the jump ball,
and the other pick.
But the majority of time, that ball's tip,
it always lands into defender's hands,
and he takes it 100 yards the other way.
I know.
I'll get the Packers credit on this one, though.
And we've seen teams be in position where they pick up the fifth-year option
when they shouldn't or they don't pick up a fifth year option.
They just let it play out like the Giants.
They extended this guy on basically a backup quarterback contract.
Remember, they gave him like $11 million over two years.
They are going to be in position.
They have some young pieces, right?
You can still get a quarterback.
You could easily put him back to the backup spot.
Financially didn't screw yourself.
You took a calculated risk.
But clearly the contract told you what they kind of believed in them.
They're like, we're not picking up the fifth year option.
We're not giving you some extension here.
give you $11 million going right for a backup quarterback, $3, $4, $5 million a year, nothing crazy.
If he's a backup quarterback has to play an individual game, not terrible.
But I think with every snap that plays out, probably pretty clear that they don't have their next Aaron Rogers on their hand.
Yeah.
And so right now they're probably going to draft in the, you know, somewhere between 12 and 16.
They're not very good, Colin.
I mean, the more you watch them, you're like, ah, this team, five wins?
Yeah.
And so let's say they draft 11.
You could get, I don't think Bo Nix rises to that.
You could get Pennix potentially.
You're not going to get Caleb or Drake May, but you could get the third or fourth best quarterback.
And I think, you know, I will say this because I think they hit on receivers and tight ends in the last couple drafts.
I like all of them.
Then they got the Reed kid from Michigan State, I think he's from.
Yeah.
They added another piece with Watson and Romeo Dobbs.
So they have good young receivers.
If you go get another quarterback, you can bring a veteran in, spend some money and bring a,
Bring a veteran in now because you've got a bunch of young kids at Tide-in wide receiver,
probably got to draft your next David Boktiari.
But they don't have a lot of huge holes.
So they usually go defense, Green Bay does in the first round.
Probably time to go get another quarterback.
Remember, if you hit on one of two, that's better than the league average.
And the other thing, if you're a Packer fan, which probably feels because you're not used to this,
it's going to be a long season.
Look at the NFC big picture, right?
Besides like the Niners and the Eagles, obviously the Lions are,
got exposed a little bit today, a lot today.
It's not like you are playing in a conference with seven-star young
quarterbacks.
So if you can, within a year, turn the thing over a little bit and just get to nine wins,
you can compete to be a wildcard.
Rams, Seattle, you watch some of these teams.
You know, they are not.
The drop-off after the top two teams roster-wise in the NFC is not like the
AFC.
Because, let's face, we talk about the Chargers.
They get the right coach.
All of a sudden, they're an 11-win team next year, right?
right hey brock purdy right now and uh gino smith those are playoff quarterbacks right like so the nfc
is very watered down i want to talk about uh the early game of the day and it was my kind of favorite
pick i really like the ravens at home against detroit now detroit's not the detroit of the
last three years where golf last two years where golf can only win at home only on the dome
only a certain way it's a different team it's a great old line they can run i thought it was a bit of
snake pit. I did not like this matchup for Detroit. Baltimore's a tough place to play. And I said,
I think I told you this last week, I thought Baltimore's first half in London against Tennessee was
the best half of football I've seen any team play in the league. I think Lamar right now is playing
easily the best football. And for all the things the Ravens do well, they haven't in the last six,
seven years, been a great wide receiver organization, the opposite of the Steelers. But Zay Flowers,
Odell. I think Lamar is healthy. He's got a contract. He feels buoyed by that. I mean, I think he's playing with a ton of confidence. He's very happy now. That's not hanging over him. A guy that runs a lot and gets hurt. Is he going to get paid? He's paid. He's happy. I don't think less of Detroit today. I think San Francisco and the Ravens today. And then Kansas City, after what I saw, but I'm tempering it because it was the Chargers defense. I think Baltimore.
Moore is a great football team right now.
I don't think Harbaugh is a special teams guy, the defense top five, the offense top five,
and Lamar, you know, contracts do different things to different people.
I think Lamar, it's really helped him because there was that, now he can play full speed.
Now he play, listen, man, if you run around, you've been banged up and you're staring at
$300 million.
And I'd be like, you know, if I was staring at $300 million.
At 26 years old.
Right.
you'd be like, I'm going to run out of bounds on this one.
He's playing with like, hey, I got my money.
I'm just going to go win games.
I think Lamar right now, I'm not serious.
There are a lot of Sundays.
He's the second best player in the league to Mahomes.
I think he is so good right now.
Well, two things.
Knowing some people there, I know last year when it got weird,
they never thought it was that weird because they really trusted the guy.
All the people that have been around him the whole time,
his character, everything that he stood for,
they understood that the contract situation was kind of its own little thing and it was throwing him off.
But they always, when football, like football came first for Lamar, obviously this year,
think about that division, two contracts, Deshawn Watson, that thing's been weird nonstop.
Shoulder injury, today injury, it just feels, and their team, talent-wise, is every bit as good as these top teams.
But the Deshaun Watson situation is all just out of whack.
When you look at the Ravens Day, they showed up like Mike Tyson in his prime.
that thing was over in the first quarter.
It was a knockout blow.
To me, if I was doing a little herd hierarchy,
AFC, I would still have the Chiefs won.
They've earned it.
Like, they're just the resume of all those guys and their coach.
I would have the Ravens, too, in the AFC, though.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
And like we talked about earlier,
if somehow, if I'm the Ravens, like, getting those home games,
I do not want to go to Kansas City.
Obviously, they have won less lost than you right now,
but, you know, Kansas City's probably a 14 and 3 team.
You got to keep stacking these wins because I do think the home field advantage for a team that, and let's face it, the other elephant in the room is Lamar hasn't had that much, really hasn't had any postseason success.
So that's an element to going to Kansas City.
I got to do everything humanly possible to try to get that one seat because I'm with you.
Lamar, is he the MVP right now?
I mean, based in the end of October.
I think he is.
And I think, again, he's playing with great confidence.
Money can ruin players.
It's made him a better player.
Yeah.
And by the way, this team, this receiving group, they're only going to get better.
They've only played six games together, right?
Like Odell's new.
Last year, Lamar's not healthy.
Now they got the rookie wide receiver.
It's like, oh, they're good now.
We also said this.
That's the fastest team in the league right now.
He doesn't get enough credit.
Mahomes didn't save Kansas City.
He just elevated them, right?
The Ravens were dead before Lamar.
John Harbaugh's career was heading in the wrong direction in Baltimore.
tomorrow. He would have got a job somewhere else.
But the flacco situation that the team was just kind of, it just felt like it had run
his course. They had lacked juice. And he came and he's not just resurrected that franchise,
turned them into perennial power. And it does feel, like you said, adding Jose
flowers, Mark Andrews's playing really well. The scheme with Todd Monkin, like I was nervous
that they were going to try to get away from what they do well, right? But they've kind of
integrated a more explosive passing offense, yet he's still very active.
as a mover, right? I wouldn't call him running like he did in 2019, 2020, but his his activity level as an athlete is still there and it throws you. He had a touchdown in the day. I think to go up 20 when nothing kind of scrambled around. It was just, I don't know who else had that in the bag in the NFL.
Well, it's almost like Jamie Fox was so naturally funny. You forgot how good of an actor he was, right? Like you're like, he can sing too.
Yeah, but he was so naturally funny and good-looking and funny that you forget like,
oh, you ever watch his movies?
Lamar was so gifted running.
I don't think we've ever given him credit shit in the pocket.
But for the record, he's the other guy in the league, sidearms it.
Running left can throw it, can go the deep ball, can run right.
Like a lot of guys when they move, Mahomes and Lamar, when they move, their accuracy doesn't dip, which is hard, right?
Think about it. Think about you're moving. You're going up and down. Lamar moving. His feet are good. I just, when I watch that game today, it's one of those. Detroit's better than that. If they played Detroit, it would be better. But Detroit looked a little plotting. Baltimore looked like a track team.
USC close lost. Once again, the defense couldn't make a stop. So I think the defensive side, I think you can shore up a lot of what they do with a new defensive coordinator, with the new defensive coordinator, with.
Alex Grinch losing, you know, moving on. I do think Bear Alexander will play in the pros.
I think they have a linebacker who's a probe. I think they've got a safety that's a pro.
They don't have Michigan talent. They don't have Bama, Georgia talent. But if you went to like Team 6 to Team 16 in the
college football world, their talent is somewhat comparable. I mean, Washington doesn't have
great talent. They have a good edge rusher. What here's something, let me throw at you. What's really
regressed has been their offensive line. And you're like, they got a couple NFL guys there.
They absolutely upgraded with transfers. They actually have some depth on the interior due to
recruiting. What's happened? As I watched them, I think Caleb is just ad-libbing a lot more
than he was last year. Between the confidence, the Heisman, the power, the NIL money,
he's sort of doing his own thing. And it's a little bit of.
Josh Allen that when you're, we always say the Bill's O line is terrible. It's not. They've got a
pro bowler, but Josh at times, he's a little more this year, I think he's a little more defined or
refined. But when Josh is out there running, it's hard as an offensive lineman. You're kind of at the
whim of what Josh Allen wanted to do. And when I watch USC, because their O line looks terrible,
but it's not terrible.
Their personnel's not terrible.
I wonder if Caleb now is sort of like, hey, I'm out of the Natty picture.
I got my NIL money.
I'm going to do what I want to do.
You think that could be possible?
Do you remember when the division and really some of the animosity started in Seattle?
You know, probably around 17, 18, everyone started shitting on their offensive line
and saying Russell Wilson was running for his life and a lot of former offensive linemen said,
well, he's taken off early and he would make hero ball plays. Now, he would make them. So it kind of
bandated, well, look at what he did. But the result was you should have just stayed in the pocket.
And clearly the coaching staff, everyone just kind of started button heads. I think Caleb's talent is
extraordinary. His arm strength, his athleticism, his ability to throw moving left or right, especially
across his body, Mahom style. He had to throw last night, cross his body to the left side that was
Only five guys on this planet can do that.
But he definitely has this hero ball syndrome, which might not be all his fault.
The program is in somewhat disarray.
I do think, and I get this a lot because they're like, oh, your boy, he's hyping Caleb up again.
And listen, I'm guilty of this too.
We kind of annoyed players as generational talents or all.
He has generational capabilities from an arm standpoint.
But as a prospect, like if you go,
Luck or Elway or Manning.
He's short relative to those guys.
Like the great prospects have all been six four to six five.
Right.
And he's, I talked to a guy who's been around them, thinks he's a shade under six foot one.
But he's built like a tank.
He knows that.
He's very thick and powerful.
I do think the all-time great prospect stuff, he's a really good prospect who is going
to go 95% number one overall and worst case scenario go number two overall.
But I think we see some flaws.
I mean, we see some of the numbers now.
against better teams.
Notre Dame and especially Utah,
high-end defensive players,
well-coached guys that are going to be playing on Sunday.
And he doesn't look like he did against Arizona in some of these games.
Now,
listen,
the program,
I think banning the reporter,
not allowing NFL scouts in there for a month and a half,
not having the players talk.
Like,
to me,
some of their priorities,
it's like,
is Nick Sabin obsessed with that bullshit?
Of course not.
Like,
what is Lincoln?
I think some of their priorities, and I think sometimes, I remember when the 49ers drafted
Hufunga and Drake Jackson.
And they said, obviously, the SC was in shambles then with Clay Hilton.
And they said, you know, Drake Jackson got a bad rap, but so do most players when coaches
are getting fired and things are in disarray.
Hufunga was the rare guy that even people that are getting fired, getting tarnished coaches,
they all had good things to say about them.
And that's a very, very small percentage of humans that are able to kind of rise above it.
And I don't know, Caleb, I've never heard bad things, but it does feel like he's kind of in the middle right now of the weirdness.
And I got to start with the blame.
You pay a guy $120 million.
It does start with the head coach.
And it feels like he's lost control a little bit of just some of the basic details of a high-end program.
All right, time for another edition of Sharp or Square.
Chad was super sharp.
I was kind of sharp.
I was three and two last week.
All of our odds provided by Draft Kings.
Chad, of course, the CCO, the Action Network.
I'll tell you, I have taken more favorites than any other year because I think there's becoming a gap offensively between the halves, the quarterbacks that are good, and the have-nots.
And so Monday, I made a huge mistake.
I took Brock Purdy over Kirk Cousins at home, and Cousins was great.
So I'm going to throw you a game, and it's very number dependent.
I don't like it at three and a half, but at three, it's interesting.
I don't think we're paying attention to how good the Texans are.
And just hear me out.
destroyed Pittsburgh. They destroyed Jacksonville. Okay, this is a team that is a playaway.
They should have beaten the Falcons, although the Falcons was the right side.
This team has taken quality teams, playoff teams, high seeds potentially, and destroyed them.
Carolina, we laud them for keeping it close in the first half against Miami. They are in
complete, utter rebuild. At minus three, I love Houston. At three and
a half on a square. But let's say the number drifts back to Texans minus three, which I'd take is that
sharper square. Totally sharp. The wise guys have been on C.J. Stroud from the beginning. And when I
say from the beginning, I mean, March. There's nobody in the professional betting community
who spent a lot of time looking at a tape and spent a lot of money betting on the NFL draft who thought,
oh yeah, I like Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud. It's pretty well known within sort of the
inner circle of NFL executivedom that Bryce Young was an owner's pick and that the player
most people wanted was C.J. Stroud. He went to the Texans. He's been by far the best
rookie quarterback and not just sort of making good plays and then not making mistakes, but he's
made Robert Woods look good. He's made Nico Collins look good. He gets one of his targets back this
week, too, by the way. I think tanks back this. Yeah. That's right. You know, his worst game,
he still ended up leading the team to a touchdown drive in the final two minutes, and then they
ended up losing because the defense couldn't stop anybody. But look, this guy off a buy,
the wise guys like the Texans at minus three, which is why it's gone up to three and a half.
All right. The Steeders have been outgained in every game. And in fact, they've often been awful for large chunks of the game offensively, but they found ways to win. I think that ends this week. Jacksonville's a better team at two and a half. Jacksonville, I think, has a real shot. I mean, what's interesting about Jacksonville, three games on a very short period, on the road for two games. We were worried how they play against Indy. They keep kind of busting up these trends because they're
probably pretty good. Outside of Kansas City last year, where they felt a little overwhelmed.
They kind of stack up with everybody when I watch them play.
Minus two and a half they're the side to me over the Steelers.
Don't care about home and a way, whether it's not a factor yet, sharp or square.
No, it's the Steelers are the sharp side.
It all may come undone one day for the Steelers.
But Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach in the NFL against the spread the past 20
years. Mike Tomlin against teams that are over 60% winning percentage regularly wins at home as an
underdog. Mike Tomlin as an underdog at home, 16 and 9 straight up. Forget about against the
spread. We saw it last week. We've seen it against the Ravens. This team is really weird because
they play terribly in the first half,
and then in the second half,
the defense starts to grind down the offense a little bit.
And T.J. when he's on the field,
it's just a different team, right?
He tilts the field in the direction of the Steelers.
We saw last week, the first play in the second half,
interception runs it back to the three-yard line.
It catapulted them to a win.
I think the Steelers are better with Deonté Johnson back.
It frees up George Pickens to be more of a threat downfield
that makes Kenny Pickett more comfortable.
It's just a better offense.
that's set.
The Jags are an interesting team,
so I'm a little bit nervous about it.
Like there have been times this year,
Steelers against the Ravens,
bet it, didn't even think about it.
Steelers against the Rams last week,
bet it, didn't even think about it.
I don't know why I'm a little more nervous about the Jags,
but I'm still taking the Steelers,
and that's the sharp side.
All right, another game, which I'm undecided now,
but off a by, offensive coach Joe Burrow,
against a San Francisco team, now in a backup quarterback with no Trent Williams or Debo.
Sam Darnold is built for Kyle Shanahan, perhaps, but I'm not sure if he's built to be inserted
missing a left tackle in one of their specialty players. If I get four, it feels like a slam dunk
Cincinnati at three and a half probably still is. I'm undecided on it, but I've gone back and
forth. Jay Mack and I talked about this on the air and off on FS1. I would think Bingles,
anything over three, would be the side, sharper square.
Yeah, I think that's right.
And you're nailing it at the number, similarly to the Texans conversation.
You get minus three, you're probably going to take the Niners.
If you can get the hook at three and a half, and get it at four, then you're going to take the Bengals.
I think before this game, a lot of consensus was going to be on the Niners.
They've had some bad luck.
They missed a field goal.
That cost them against the Browns.
They missed a field goal, has three strange, uncharacteristic turnovers.
Turns out two of them might have come after Brock Purdy was concussed and through interceptions.
And they gave up a weird touchdown at the end of that first half against the Vikings on an all-out blitz that is just rare for Steve Wilkes to call.
And so this team was coming back home as a five-and-half-point favorite in a game where I think a lot of wise guys thought, okay, the Niners are going to get right.
now purdy's out, but I think the consensus is going to be, if they're a short favorite,
they're still going to back them. If the wise guys can get the hook, they'll take the bangles.
People are not that convinced Joe Burroughs back. And he did not look great in the second half of that
game they had right before the buy. He's still having trouble getting the ball downfield, not great
percentage-wise throwing the ball downfield. So there's a lot of mixed feelings about this. This is
entirely about the number. Okay, I think Patriots plus nine and a half at Miami feels right,
not because they beat Buffalo. Injuries on the O-line, I think it's very clear that Miami has not
beaten a playoff team since week three of last year, or what we consider a top-end team.
It's a lot of fake Gucci loafers and leasing a speedboat. It's fun to look at, but when you
dig deeper, don't have much of a chin. Offensive lines bad. Translation, New England will
get pressure. They do usually even against DeSino lines. They're running the ball a little better.
Mack Jones with confidence, a Belichick buoyed by that contract that's public. The team played with a
certain swagger. It's not just the Buffalo number. It's a division game, nine and a halfs a ton.
I do think weather cools. You're not going down to Miami in the swamp in the second week of September.
It's not going to be a factor. I think I would have to take New England on the points,
sharper square. Yeah, that's the sharp side. And it's fun. It's funny.
you say sort of the fake Gucci's and speedboats, right?
Like, look, Miami's reflection of the city is playing in right now,
and they have not beaten good teams.
And we've talked about this last week.
My biggest bet at the season was the Eagles at two and a half over the dolphins, right?
And what we're going to see,
what we started to see with the Patriots against the bills,
Bill O'Brien, a lot more with Mack Jones under center,
a lot more short passives, that defense,
which had lost Matthew Judan, had lost Christian Gonzalez,
started to figure out, okay, how are we going to play?
How are we going to rush the passer?
The dolphins without key players on the offensive line.
I do think Tyree killed practice today.
So very good chance that he plays on Sunday.
But the wise guys, they pushed this number from 10,
down to nine and a half, down to nine.
Divisional games, the underdogs in divisional games,
The last decade, 60 games above 500 against the spread.
And we got a few of those games this week.
All right.
We finish with two things.
The first is, talk me into a game.
I often give it to you, and it's the Rams plus six to six and a half against Dallas.
So against Philadelphia and against San Francisco, they were clearly outclassed.
But the fact that they hung around Pittsburgh, they are in a rebuild.
one Rams player, one high-end Rams player.
They have one that's in his prime, Ernest Brown.
Cooper, Stafford, Havenstein, Donald, they're out of their prime.
Pittsburgh's probably got nine guys in their prime.
They're young.
That game was go either way entering the fourth, and it was a Pittsburgh Steeler crowd.
So I think McVeigh is doing a remarkable job with an old Aaron Donald, and mostly
rookies and six-round, fourth-round.
picks. I like the coaching here. It's a lot of points. I think the Rams will stay close.
They're fairly healthy. I think I'd like the Rams plus the points, but Vegas is so smart.
Draft Kings. It's seven. I think it's such a great bet for the Rams. It's six and a half.
I don't know. You tell me. Talk me into it. So it's interesting you bring this up.
This was the biggest debate that me and my BFF Simon Hunter had on our podcast. And I
I love the Cowboys in this spot. Simon wants to love the Cowboys, but can't quite find the exact
number. Like at 6, 6.5, it's basically lined right, like you just said. The bookmakers know what
they're doing. We cannot find sort of a consensus, wise guy opinion on this because the number is so
right. I'm all in on the Cowboys for a couple of reasons. I think they're much more talented. I think
I think Mike McCarthy is a terrible coach.
And I think he is putting his team at a disadvantage inside the red zone.
And I think over the course of his career, it has been proven that if any other coach was working with Aaron Rogers, he probably would have more Super Bowls.
Like, he's just not a very good play caller.
But the Cowboys defense is so good.
Their pressure from just four players on the front line is insane.
And the reason the Steelers beat the Rams last week is because of the pressure they got on a terrible, terrible Rams O line.
So the opportunity here is to put a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford.
And look, if he can beat the pressure and get the ball to Pukuuku, if he can get the ball to Cooper Cup, that changes it because the cowboys do have a lot of issues with their back line.
But we saw against Justin Herbert, the Cowboys had 33 pressures and hit Justin Herbert 26 times.
even though they barely sacked him.
Like the end of the game,
Micah Parsons got him once.
But that impacted him enough
that he was making bad throws,
rushing throws.
So I also like the Cowboys
off a by coming home.
Dak, when he's at home,
covers and he covers big.
Dak on the road as an underdog
in these games against teams
where they are playing opponents
who are usually better than them
in the high-profile spots
that we're used to seeing,
that's when he struggles.
And that's where you see
sort of the disadvantage
that he has with Mike McCarthy
as a coach. But at home, as a favorite, he's a frontrunner. That's a good spot to get healthy.
I like the cowboys in this spot. Finally, what did I miss? What's the stinkeruny that you want to talk
me into? There's two of them. There's two of whom we didn't talk about. Two ugly division.
Listen, I know Washington's one of them, right? I looked at that and I thought, you know what's
funny about them, half to half game to game. You have no idea what you're getting.
But I got to tell you this. There are moments when I watch Sam Hal, and I'm like, he's a mid-level
franchise quarterback. When you give him time to step and throw, it's pretty good, right?
Yeah, that's exactly it. Washington plus six and a half. Look, Denver opened at eight and a half,
got bet down to eight by the wise guys, got bet down to seven and a half by the wise guys.
Some places it's seven now.
Well, I've guys love in Denver in the past couple weeks.
First, when they played Kansas City, they thought, oh, was Mahomes just off in this game?
Is that why the defense was so good?
And then they played Green Bay.
And Matt LaFloire is really good at scheming his guys open.
And Denver did a good job of stopping the Packers.
Plus, Giovante Williams, six weeks into the season, seven weeks into the season,
much more explosive.
You're starting to see Sean Payton
give him the ball more.
It's why you've seen, again,
brother, division games,
big favorites,
the chief's not great at covering
over three and a half.
Chiefs are not a big cover,
big number team.
It's hard to cover big numbers
when you're always favored by a big number, right?
So there's a little bit of a,
like, self-fulfilling prophecy here
where you get Patchman Holmes
as a short favorite and underdog.
He's so good.
he's going to win in those games. But if every game you're favored by three and a half to
ten, it's hard to always cover in those games. So the wise guys like Denver and the wise guys
love Washington. They think it's a tough spot for the Eagles. They've got big games coming up.
So it was a little bit of a look ahead, a little bit of a trap game on the road. Is hurts hurt?
We don't know. Is Lane Johnson struggling? We don't know. That offense still isn't perfect.
so there's some money coming on the commanders.
I like them both.
I bet them both.
Be my buddy.
Be my buddy, Colin.
Be my bad game betting buddy.
I went four and one last week.
You went three and two.
I went four and one because I made the extra effort.
Okay?
I made the effort.
You know, the downside to having taste
is you won't go down.
down to the stinkerama game, the dumpster game.
Oh, is that what you're calling it?
Taste, is that how you're framing this?
That is a masterclass and narrative right there.
I like it.
Well done.
All dumpster dive and take Washington.
Why not?
You will?
Yeah, well, I kind of, they're all over the map,
but, I mean, Philadelphia comes off a big TV, emotional game,
late game, a little less prep time,
It's a division rival, big games ahead.
I do think it's the kind of game that you would say to yourself,
let's rest Lane Johnson.
You know what I mean?
This is a deep team.
And we know this, that Washington has moments.
We know this.
So I, and Philadelphia has,
I thought that Miami game was the first game.
I thought they really played well.
And at one point it was 17-17.
So, and Miami's really a team Philadelphia's built.
to beat. Washington's a team that's built to play Philadelphia close. Physical trenches can run it a
little. I don't think that's big dumpster diving. I looked at that game. You know, again,
the wise guys are smart. Like, you know, six and a half, three and a half. Like, I like San Francisco.
But you make, if three and a half four was Sam Darnold, then it's not as attractive. It's just not a good
bad. All right. We got to go. By the way, I like how this ended up being, you know what,
I like him.
It's no longer dumpster diving.
It's really, this is the fillet of home underdog.
I'm like, I'm like, right here.
I'm Cassanza.
I'm grabbing an E. Claire out of the garbage just quickly.
It was only there five seconds.
That's, that's why you are a, a multimedia mogul.
Yeah.
Those kind of references.
Quick.
Yeah.
All right, buddy.
See you.
All right, brother.
I'll see you later.
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I don't care what you're saying.
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