The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Eagles Lack Identity, Brock Purdy, Derek Carr, PAC-12 Powerhouses

Episode Date: October 21, 2023

Colin’s top takes of the week! Colin explains why the Eagles have lost their offensive identity after losing Shane Steichen and that Brock Purdy showed he was up to the task in crunch time. He presents his evidence for why Derek Carr is not the franchise quarterback the Saints were looking for and recaps his experience at the Oregon v Washington game. Longtime Dallas Cowboys writer Matt Mosley joins Colin and talks about why the Cowboys need to continue to find ways to get Dak Prescott out of the pocket.  Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 7 NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Matt Mosley and I talk about the Dallas Cowboys future and their win over the Chargers. Chad Millman, Sharper Square, but first my top takes of the week. Let's talk about the Jets upset of the Philadelphia Eagles. Well, Philadelphia, as the saying goes, had been playing with their food for the last four or five weeks, not putting people away, struggling. I do think they miss Shane Stike and the offensive coordinator from last year, who is now the head coach of the Colts.

We all recognize that coordinators matter. I don't think the Niners defense is quite as good as last year. D'Amico Ryans is now the head coach of the Houston Texans who won another game with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. So I just think the Eagles are a really good team struggling to find an identity. And four turnovers, Jets didn't have any. And I also think Robert Sala and his staff deserve credit. This is a team that has one real playmaker on the outside, Garrett Wilson. Nice running back.

O line is suboptimal. Tremendous defense. They're playing into Zach Wilson's strengths. They kind of limit the places he can go and get into trouble. Didn't love all their play calling. if you looked at the box score outside of the turnovers, you would have thought the Eagles won. Well, if you look at the box score, USC Notre Dame, you would have thought USC won. It doesn't matter. Limit turnovers, limit the trouble. Zach Wilson can get you in, play great defense, take the ball away.

You know, when I watch Philadelphia, and I think Julian Edelman was on my show about four or five days ago, three or four days ago at Fox. And he said every September, you know, Bill Belichick's worst month of his career was September. He said every single team, even Super Bowl winning teams the next September, if you had 90% same roster, he goes, every team had a different identity. And Bill believed the first four to five weeks of the season, you found your identity. Philadelphia can't find one, but they're really, really talented. And so the quest is, can we figure out exactly what we are? Obviously, Jalen Hertz made some mistakes today.

Also makes, you know, Philadelphia usually is a very good big moment team with this roster. But it's not a surprise. Matt Ryan had an MVP with Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan leaves slowly. He's not the same quarterback. Philadelphia is a, you can be two things. Very good and lacking a true identity. For years, Michigan under Harbaal was really good.

But it wasn't until about two, three years ago, they found that true Michigan identity. We're going to physically, at the point of attack, dominate you. Ohio State may have better players. Last couple years, they feel like they've kind of lacked a little identity compared to Michigan. So I think that's where Philadelphia is. I think they'll be fine eventually. They've got a playmaker, a quarterback, AJ Brown's remarkable. They have so many talented guys in that front seven defensively. But good for the Jets. I think they've kind of figured out and come to terms with what Zach can do and what he can't. I think Zach's playing with more confidence now. He's put game after game after game three in a row where he's played pretty well.

First it's Kansas City, then it's Denver, Philadelphia, did the best of his opportunities. You don't have to win Pretty. You just got to win. Good for the Jets. There's been this discussion about San Francisco having the best roster, but Brock Purdy's excellence is due to the roster and the coach. And I thought there was a moment at the end of the game that proved what Brock Pretty is, which I've claimed is good. I don't know if he's pretty good. I don't think he's very good, but he's good. So last drive of the game against Cleveland's defense, and that is a big boy Cleveland Brown defense, top five in the league. It's fast, it's got size, it's relentless. It doesn't have Christian McCaffrey, most of the game, doesn't have Debo Samuel, last drive.

On the road, marches down and gets the team into field goal range and the kicker misses, the rookie kicker misses. He did his job. If Tom Brady was missing Gronk and Edelman against this defense, drove down, got the field goal kicker in range, and the field goal kicker missed, you'd be crushing the kicker. You want to root against Brock Purdy. You wanted to acknowledge Brady was the goat. Depends on where you come from. Purdy's good.

Not great, I don't think. But he's good. That was a tough environment. Pressure on every pass attempt of that final drive, on everyone. A couple of big plays by Brandon Ayyuk sits in the pocket. He recognizes who's open and accurately delivered. delivers the ball. And that's what really good franchise quarterbacks do. 90% of the people who play this position are dependent on those around them, their protection, their weaponry, their head coach.

Even Mahomes benefits from Kelsey and Andy Reed. So I thought that drive, even though it was in a losing effort, was an example of what brought Purdy is. Not intimidated, doesn't panic, can handle a pass rush, got it to the right people. McCaffrey, Debo, not available, right? McAfree wasn't available most of the game. Debo not available at the end. Got it to the right people, move the ball up the field, and put them in a position to win. And he did his job. The Patriots dynasty was built on do your job. The kicker didn't do his job. Okay. And San Francisco got some heat for drafting the kicker where they drafted him. And to this point, you know, the Trey Lance thing didn't work. The kicker thing has had its ups and downs.

They've done a very good job to build a roster. But this was going to be a really hard day for San Francisco. They come off this dominating national TV performance over Dallas. We know in the NFL, one of the things I've always done is bet against the team who has this dominating performance the previous week and bet on the team if they have a capable quarterback who gets blown out the previous week. So it was one of those circle games. You know, the line changed dramatically because of the quarterback play. But I thought, you know, Cleveland moved the ball enough, deserved a win. But to me, the story was, another example of Purdy is more than capable of at home or on the road against an elite defense without all of his pieces moving the chains and getting you in position to win the game. So, you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback?

Tonight, Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week. Bad knee. Facing a better defense, Saints, than defensive. Derek Carr faces in the Jacks. He's on the road. One of the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the big mistake, doesn't have a pick six.

A very tidy, 20 for 29, 204 yards, 60 yards rushing, and a touchdown. On the road against the better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's not having to play great. It's just making enough plays to win a road game when you don't practice all week. Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara arguably the best player in the game. Alave.

Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's line. A less efficient, 33 of 55, a pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara, 17 carries and 12 catches. Think about that. 29 times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs, the life of a running back. I am not anti-Darick Carr.

But when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he was almost a sympathetic figure, right? Weird ownership, cookey organization, Al Davis, into his son. And so when you watched him, team had to move to Vegas. When you watched Derek Carr, he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know, if he could only get a good defense, a star back, a couple of great weapons,

a functional, stable ownership group, a weaker conference, oh wait, a weaker division, oh wait, he got all of them with the saints. And it feels like he's standing in the way. of success. Weaker division. Noamah Holmes, Herbert twice a year. Weaker conference, better defense, more functional ownership, one of the top GMs, Mickey Loomis in the league, two-star receivers, starback, and at least a good run-blocking line. I don't know if they're good past blocking line, the Saints, but a pretty good run-blocking line. And he's at home, facing a quarterback who didn't practice and loses.

And years ago, Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about the 12th best quarterback in the league. He's around that Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just out of it. And the league's gotten better at quarterback. There's just five or six guys that weren't around five years ago.

And if you right now look at the top 10 quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Stafford, Hertz, Trevor Lawrence, Goff, Aaron Rogers, I'll put in there too. Those are 10. I would take Kyler Murray, DAC, and Tua above Derek Carr, and I watched him play against C.J. Stroud last week, and I thought C.J. Stroud was a better distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played with more confidence. So now he's the 15th best quarterback Derek Carr. the league and he got the bag, which is going to limit for the next couple of years what the Saints can do in free agency. And I was talking about this on FS1 today. If you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannahill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, ask yourself this, would at least half the league and preferably over half the league make a call on them? No forget. Garoppolo, Tannahill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek Carr had a market of about three teams.

That's it. So I spent a Saturday in Seattle watching the Huskies beat Oregon. They'll play again, I think, for the Pac-12 championship. And I think Washington has a better quarterback and wide receiver talent. And they're more of a big playoff offense. I think Oregon's got a better roster. I think Texas, Oklahoma will play again. Texas has the better roster.

Oklahoma had a really good afternoon and beat Texas. You know, one of the things I thought about, though, is as I watch Colorado and USC sort of collapse here in the last couple of weeks, and clearly there's some regression on both programs, that when I went to Washington and Oregon, though both have a first round quarterback and a really, really good young head coach, and these are both very proud, you know, Huskies have a national championship, have had several really elite teams. Oregon obviously is a top 10 program, Phil Knight, the visionary behind it, despite both of them having NFL players all over the roster, first round quarterback talent, Bo Nix, Michael Pennix. The star is the program. At Colorado and USC, the star is the coach and the quarterback. And I think when I watch USC, if you looked at the box score, you would have thought they won. But if you watched the game, which I did, they are completely dependent on Lincoln Riley's play calling and Caleb Williams making magic happen. What else do they do well? Not much.

Colorado's got a really talented quarterback and a really inspiring coach. What else do they do well? Is that college sports is different. Even with NIL, not everybody gets paid. It is about the program. When Alabama was dominating college football, it was about Nick Sabin's suffocating defenses. Sabin was a well-known coach and the architect, but they didn't have star quarterbacks, even when they have good quarterbacks like Tua.

he's not the star of the program. It's the program. Ohio State, it's the program. Washington and Oregon were a testament to that. It felt like a college game, not a pro game. It wasn't about the NIL, even though we know Oregon is very well capitalized in the NIL space. It was a really refreshing game. And it was, I think those are both top five or six teams in the country. I do think Oregon's got a little better talent. But I think Michael Pennix is a really special. player and Washington may have the best receiving core in the country. Their number two receiver didn't even play. And Oregon's corners who are good, gut beat on several occasions. But it was refreshing. USC has always been, you know, Pete Carroll was a bit of a rock star when he was here, and so was Reggie Bush. But the difference, if you look at New England's dynasty through the years, it was about Tom Brady taking pay cuts. It was do your job. It wasn't about the star quarterback. And there's nothing wrong with having a great quarterback. Tom Brady is the goat, Mahomes is.

But when I think about Kansas City, I think about Andy Reid's play design. I think about Brett Veach, the general manager. I think about them managing the cap, managing Mahomes' salary. I think about Travis Kelsey. I think about Spags, the defensive coordinator who's been around forever. Chris Jones, it's a collective with a great quarterback. I feel like USC football is about the quarterback. They don't do anything else well.

And Washington and Oregon do a lot of things well. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

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So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok. Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. The Dallas Cowboys, Dak played about as well as he has played in the last 10 games, certainly against the talented Chargers defense.

Not a good one, not a well-coached one, but a talented one. And so Dak throws for about 240 yards, a touchdown. Couple of big throws on that final drive. Brandon Cooks delivered tonight. And Matt Mosley, Of course, you know, Matt's been a friend of the volume for a long time. There's so many different areas to go, but let's start with Dak.

He had better protection most of the night. I thought he and Gallup don't work. It's clearly C.D. Lamb and Brandon Cooks tonight felt like he sort of arrived in this offense. But I thought Dak played pretty well. That fair? I think it's fair. I mean, I think had it gone the other direction, we'd be talking about that throw to Pollard. I mean, that Will route with Pollard was wide open.

And I know Troy was trying to make the argument. Maybe Murray did something there. I don't really think there was much there. So he misses a wide open throw to kind of end the game there. But for the most part, you're right. I mean, I would still say this offense looks weird because the only time it really works is when he escapes. So he makes the huge play to Pollard. They have a mistackle.

Pollard makes a nice play and goes for 60. but in terms of like the timing of this so-called Texas coast offense, there's no real timing. Like, DAC kind of has to go make plays for it to happen. Now, the good news is he made him. I mean, he looked awful the week before, all the interceptions and everything. He ran. I think he plays so much better when they get him running the football.

And on that RPO where he keeps it for the 18-yard touchdown, Like, that's huge for his confidence, the team. Everybody kind of feeds off that. Yeah, I think Dak knows what he is more than we give him credit for. Dak is not a brilliant pocket passer. And I think Dak knows it. Dax at his best. I thought the Cowboys were hyper-aggressive and ran him in the first half, first couple series.

They went out of their way to say, and Aikman said this in the pregame. He said, I think you're going to like what you see from the Cowboys tonight. He'd obviously had some intel. I think they made a mission tonight. We're going to run DAC. We're going to have Dak run more. And I think he's more successful that way. There are people that are natural runners, Lamar, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts.

And then there are people that are just what I would call they run to escape. But they're like Russell, Wilson, and Dak kind of run to escape. But at times I think they're more effective out of the puck. I think Lamar is a better thrower in the pocket that people give him credit for. I think Josh is great in the pocket. I think Jalen Hertz is better in the pocket. I think Dak and Russell Wilson are okay guys in the pocket. I just think they're okay.

So I think, I think, Dak, to your point, it is interesting. If I said to you, the game featured two teams with no chance to win a Super Bowl for the same reason. 20 total penalties, 11 on Dallas, nine on the Chargers, neither one of the, teams looks well coached. That was my takeaway tonight. Third down defense for the Chargers, oh, as a whole, basic off sides of the Cowboys, motion penalties.

These teams did not look well coached to me tonight. No, Cowboys continue to be undisciplined, you know, on both sides, on the defensive line. You're right, where they line up. You know, back to Dak a little bit. Your point about the pocket is interesting. He was kind of still in the pocket. Like his best throw of the night might have been when he was backing up, which generally it is, it's interesting.

You don't like want your quarterback like going back there other than like Mahomes or Josh Allen or somebody and throwing kind of off their back foot. And yet the best touch he put on a ball was that throw to Cooks in the end zone where he's backing up and he's going and he puts he puts a gorgeous ball on that. So he has the ability. I agree. I mean, I think, first of all, you still have, wasn't that interesting that you had Kellynne Moore on the other sideline, and you had both teams bogging down, got down there in the red zone, didn't really have a great plan for what they were going to do, to which I was like, both Dallas, you know, both Dallas's offenses look pretty bad in the red zone. Right. You know, it's interesting. When I look at this game overall, I thought my biggest takeaway was the Dallas defensive front basically manipulated the Chargers O line.

I think the Chargers had six holding calls. Herbert almost never had a clean pocket. Therefore, he rushed it by the second quarter, missing open throws. Justin Herbert's a very good quarterback. But I think what happens in game sometimes is that when you get hit early, even if you don't get sat and you have to rush the throws, you start doing that automatically. You just hurry things up. And I thought they got Herbert out of rhythm by their pressure. I mean, he was running for his life for the first half. They settled down a little in the second.

But I think my big picture in the entire takeaway is the Chargers on occasion elected to block. Micah one-on-one, dumb, ineffective, huge trouble. But overall, if I'm flying back to Dallas tonight, the Cowboys, I feel like our defensive front, not McCarthy, our defensive front, really controlled the football game. I think that's right. I thought a digizua played brilliantly. I thought he controlled, and I think Kellan Moore thought, I've got to go with the run. I've got to keep.

I cannot abandon the run game at all. And it really wasn't there. and then to your point, like 77 over on the left side. I mean, that was interesting what they said about Micah. He's like, well, he respects Slater. So he's not going to line up there the whole night. He's going to go to the other side. And think about how badly do you have to be holding to get called on one of those quick running plays.

They run Echler over the left side and 77 gets caught in there because it was so incredibly obvious because he has a wrestling move where he took the guy to the ground. And boy, we had our Leon Lett moment in this game. where the Cowboys player inexplicably, I guess thought the ball was touched by his teammates and slides in there at the last minute, Jalen Tolbert and lived to tell about it. I mean, that really was Cowboys do some boneheaded things, but there's a, what, second-year player that decides to come diving in after a football and hands it back to the Chargers. I mean, the Cowboys tried to give them that game. Oh, no, question.

And the Chargers, yeah, the Dallas was the better team tonight and tried to give it away. The Chargers have, they really do have some good players. But when you live in Los Angeles, and I know they're not a national team, they're barely a popular regional team or a Los Angeles team. But with Brandon Staley being a defensive coordinator, like Matt Eber Fluson, Chicago, you're like, well, Why is the defense so bad? The Chargers have more money on the defensive side than any team in the league. Kalee, Mack and Bosa, Derwin James. They whiffed on a cornerback acquisition, but they have active linebackers.

The Chargers spent a ton on defense, two elite rush ends, have a defensive coach, and are as bad on fourth and third and long as any defense in the league. So at least Dallas can say, hey, we have an offensive coach. Dak had one of his best games. Brandon Cooks was involved. I mean, I look at Dallas and I thought their O-line play, by and large, DAC had a more comfortable pocket. Dak had a good game.

They had a game plan. They moved DAC early. I felt like there was a plan by Dallas. Meanwhile, the Chargers are off a buy week. No trick plays. I didn't, what was the game plan? Maybe the Cowboys D-Line blew it up, but I didn't see anything. Can we talk about what McCarthy was doing at the end of the first half?

Like when even the clock operator thought, well, most any coach ever will stop the clock here with a timeout and take a shot at the end zone with eight seconds left. And McCarthy's over there. No, no, I didn't call a timeout. Wind this clock down for me. and they come back from a break. The broadcasters, everybody doing the game was like completely confused. They're like, did we miss a play?

What happened here? And McCarthy, because they stopped the clock, they had to get it down to three because McCarthy didn't want to take a shot at the end zone. I mean, like, imagine that being a play caller, an offensive guy, and you've got so little confidence in your guy or your offense that you're like, I do not want to see a ball go in the end zone from what? to like the 18 yard line, wherever they were, they're going to take a rip at the end zone. And he's like, no, I would rather, I've got C.D. Lamb. I got all these folks. I'd rather just kick this thing and make sure we go in 10-7. I mean, you kind of, you have one young head coach is kind of trying.

It's probably lucky to still have a job. And then you have one coach who's kind of trying to extend his career. And they both did some baffling things. But Mike wants to be Mr. Go for it on fourth down, but then he wants to get down there and not even take a shot and settle for the field goal. So, I mean, you've got some, you've got some weird, weird stuff going on in that game. All right. Time for another edition, Sharper Square. It's the CCO of the Action Network, Chad Millman, my buddy, all odds provided by Draft King. So Warren Sharp sent me something over the week that was really fascinating. Underdogs are not doing well this year. And Warren Sharp not only theorizes.

but indicates that the holding calls defensively have gone down sharply. And so when you look at the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's just understood. It was not three years ago. That was, we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now you can do it while the ball's in the air if it's not, you know, lurching at the player and disrupting him. And so what does that mean? My theory is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below average quarterbacks.

Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month. So the Tanna Hills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap between starters and stars and backups, Tanna Hill and Mahomes now, five years ago, you could be competitive. The gap now between Daniel Jones and Mahomes, it's like. junior varsity varsity. Underdogs are not covering. The best quarterback, if Baker is better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads already, leads in seven divisions. The exception is Brock Purdy. He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than Arizona's backup and arguably better than Gino Smith. So my point being is, I've always been a fan of underdogs. But increasingly this year,

my winning bets are on superior quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing. Now, this is really hurting. Scoring's down, but there are more blowouts in two years than we've ever had. And the scoring is declining even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look at my bets this week and I think I wouldn't have made these bets a year ago. But I'll throw one at you. Ravens minus three at home against the Lions. So I watched Baltimore.

I thought their first half against Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season by a quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular. Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak. They've won on the road. This is a whole different ball game. Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I still think the Ravens, I told you last week, it was my favorite bet, are undervalued. So again, plus three Detroit.

Hot would have been my pick. I'm going to go Baltimore minus three, sharp or square. So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of, I think Warren's sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting. But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs aren't covering not because there's holding calls, but because quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend. How many downfield throws that could have made. made a difference did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have made a huge difference did Justin Herbert miss? I think there's a combination of a lot of things that are impacting some of these games.

Some of them are sort of factors that are not repeatable. Some of them are regression. Some of them are things that are going to be patterns. Certainly offense is down considerably. And sacks are up, by the way. So O-line players. So medios or quarterbacks. With pressure and holding defensive holding, like the sacks are way up.

So if you can escape it, you're okay. This year, I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards per completion is something like 10.6. It's amongst the lowest in the modern era of the NFL. So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are leveling out, which probably means when the competition committee meets in the spring, They will figure out a way to make it easier for offenses to score the football, you know. But to your point about the Ravens, yeah, it's the sharp side. The line opened at two and a half. Everybody believes the lions are way overvalued.

You're talking about a team that was 11 to 1 to win the NFC before the season began. They're now down to 6 to 1, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take a look for a second at who the Lions have beaten, right? the Panthers, the Bucks, they have not beaten very good teams, the Packers. And meanwhile, the Ravens, A, they scored 28 points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on. Like, they've been red zone inefficient in certain games.

That game against the Steelers, they should have won. We talked about this last week. A lot of drop passes that would have made the difference and put the game away. He's actually playing really well. And Lamar, when he is a short favorite, is actually. is actually very, very good against the spread. Bigger favorite, not so much, short favorite. I like it.

Wise guys like it. You're sharp. Eagles minus two and a half another favorite hosting Miami. I think Miami I've got a pretty good read. They're a heavyweight with a glass chin. If you punch them back, can get a rush with four. They fold pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play.

That's a more comfortable quarterback. Against a less comfortable quarterback, Miami will score. But if you look at their defensive front for Miami in the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays. This could be ball control dominant. I'm going to take, for the record, Philadelphia, night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately? Like, it's just different.

I'm going to take Eagles minus two and a half sharper square. Totally sharp. The truth is, this line opened at one and a half and moved up to two. Now it's a two and a half. It is a pros Joe's game, right? The wise guys are 100% on the Eagles. the Joes, the amateurs, the squares, they're on the dolphins. And you mentioned a couple, you mentioned two things that are really important here.

One, Lane Johnson. If he plays, this is a significantly different team. When he doesn't, I think they're 10 and 22 without Lane Johnson. And when he plays, they're a Super Bowl caliber team. Two, Jalen Hertz, against pressure, not so good. Jalen hurts when he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him more than 40% of the time. I think he's 20 and 5 in his career. So you're talking about a Miami Dolphist team that is not great at pressuring the quarterback,

and you're talking about an Eagles team that is coming off a loss that they were headed for. You and I have talked about this. Like, the Eagles have been winning because they have a really good head coach. They have a really good quarterback. They have really good weapons on the edges. But they haven't been jelling offensively at all. And also, last week, Jalen Carter didn't play, right? he was resting. So this week he should be back on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like,

okay, we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets. We understand better now what we need to do. We're going to come back because that's who we are. The wise guys are on the Eagles. One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue. 49ers off a loss are a really good football team. Minnesota's not. I don't think it's a great locker room. I don't think they create pressure situations for offenses.

I think San Francisco will control the ball. At some point, if you do something five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky. It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think quietly in the building, they're moving off cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't think it's, I just don't, I don't love this team. I'm going to take the Niners minus six and a half sharper square.

You are who your record says you are. Didn't some brilliant coach say that one? Bill Parcells. And the Vikings are not a very good football team. They weren't very good last week against a terrible team. And the Bears, the only reason they won that game is because a second string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came in off the bench, fumbled, scoop and score. for the Vikings. That was the difference in the game. Otherwise, the bears with a backup quarterback win that game, right? And so this has been the sentiment on the Vikings all year. People were

fading the Vikings. They did not expect them to win at the rate they did last year. There was going to be regression because of how many one-score games they won. This line has moved up from six and a half. It's at seven. The wise guys are hesitant to come in on big road favorites. but in this case, they are aligned with you. I thought most of the lines, like I think Seattle hosting the Cardinals, I thought initially, if it was six and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people have figured out Arizona. So if Blazing Five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now the number is not good.

My question is, if it's seven, do you take Seattle? Seven and a half you don't. Seven, do you? No, no, no, I agree with you. And I think what happened with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella story where the shine has come off a little bit. We know what they are. Right. And honestly, the biggest challenge for them, they lost James Connor.

Like he was bull rushing over everybody, right? And he was really powering their offense. And without him, they really don't have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me, seven is a pass. If you could have gotten it at six and a half, you know, like you could still get San Francisco. If you can get it at six and a half, I think those are the two sort of. of bigger favorites. The other game that's really interesting.

And this one is like, remember for years, we've been doing segments like this together. And every year, I'm telling you, you got to take the Jags when they were terrible. They're plus 13 and a half on the road. You got to take the Jags. That's what the wise guys are going to do.

The New England Patriots have become the Jags. I can't. I told you, I can't. When I can't watch a team, I can't bet him. So you can watch the Green Bay Denver game? Fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. Fascinated.

And is Jordan Love going to make it or not? I mean, if Jordan Love is a lousy Sunday, we have to be honest here, sitting for three years, completing 55% of his throws with Matt LaFleur. If he can't move the ball, we got a white flag thing here. Like, you can't keep defending him. So that game's got a lot, like, we know Russell's not going to last. But if Jordan loves struggles, you cannot sit there. By the way, C.J. Stroud.

No offensive linemen can't run. Rookie play calmer. Rookie coach. Game one, good. You can't be in a place four years and complete 55% of your throws. I don't want to hear about Christian Watson's not available. Give me a break. So, I mean, I think that game is actually, whatever the word is, the French word for so ugly, it's attractive.

That's Green Bay, Denver. You know what's interesting. So I come from a startup culture with Action Network, right? You're building a really valuable, strong, incredible business with the volume. Yeah. If you're in a venture-backed business, one of the best phrases I ever heard, some of the folks who helped to, who bankrolled action when we started, is are you being intellectually honest about what you're looking at?

Meaning, can you look at the data? Can you make a decision not based. on what you want it to be, not based on what you think it could be if X factors had an impact of the numbers. It's like, can you look at the numbers? Can you say, okay, this is what's happening? And then can you make decisions about the business going forward based on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how you got to that point or if it's going against what you believed it should be? Same goes if it's going well. Like, can you be intellectually honest about examining what you see in front of you? Can the people? Can the people?

Packers be intellectually honest about Jordan Love, if he continues to be a 55% completion rate passer who misses open looks. As always, Chad Millman, it's good to seeing you. Always a pleasure, brother. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

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Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilts of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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