The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Harbaugh Lands With Chargers, Belichick Passed Over By Falcons, Nick Wright On Andy Reid Becoming The GOAT, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: January 27, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! He gives his reaction to Jim Harbaugh taking the Chargers job and predicts an instant turnaround for the team. He weighs in on Bill Belichick being passed up for the Falcons job (7:30) and why Bill’s insistence on control over personnel and lack of acumen for offense could make the future Hall of Famer a tough candidate to hire. John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” joins Colin to weigh in on a devastating loss for the Bills and why they can’t rely on Josh Allen putting on the Superman cape if they’re ever going to make a Super Bowl run (19:00) Nick Wright, host of “First Things First” on FS1 stops by to debate whether Andy Reid could surpass Bill Belichick as the greatest NFL coach of all time (24:30) Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the AFC and NFC Championship games plus the effect of Jim Harbaugh on the Chargers 2024 win total! 32:30 - Chiefs @ Ravens 35:45 - Lions @ 49ers 39:30 - Harbaugh’s effect on Chargers win total 42:30 - Betting the better QB vs the better team (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman Sharper Square, Nick Wright on what else. Andy Reed, my homes and the cheeps and my top takes of the week. It is official. They worked late last night and early this morning. Agents involved.

Hurdles finally crossed and eclipsed. Jim Harbaugh is the coach of the LA Chargers. It is easily the best current job available in the NFL because you have Justin Herbert. Now, I talked about this recently. Next year, Josh Allen, Aaron Rogers, Trevor Lawrence, DAC, Jalen Hertz, Caleb Williams, Derek Carr potentially could all need a coach. This year, 7-8 openings, won elite quarterback Justin Herbert, who again, as a rookie with the 36th, 32nd ranked offensive line with the Chargers, his rookie year.

He broke all the touchdown records for a quarterback. So since then, he has been undercoached and under-supported. This was the right choice. It is the best current job available. And you very rarely, I mean, when's the last candidate that eventually became a coach that was a sure thing? I mean, Matt LaFleur was respected as a coordinator. There was no sure thing replacing Mike McCarthy. I mean, Mike McCarthy going to the Cowboys.

He had a Super Bowl, but that was not a sure thing dealing with Jerry Jones, and it hasn't been a sure thing. Jim Harbaugh is about as sure thing as you get. I mean, even Belichick, if he went to Atlanta tomorrow, there's no sure thing. You don't have a quarterback. Vrable's a great coach. Goes to Washington. What if they pick the wrong quarterback? This is a sure thing. Harbaugh's worked everywhere and immediately, and this is not a terribly

heavy lift. Sean Payton at Denver is a big lift. They have some cap issues, and they also have, you know, one of the top picks, which they don't need a quarterback or a left tackle or an edge rusher. And that's what is all over the top 20 picks on this draft. They could use a tight end. Brock Bowers will be available to them. They could probably move down two or three spots. and still land Brock Bowers and get a second or a third round pick. What they need to do is hit on some draft picks beyond the first round. It's a very strong draft. So the first 15 to 18 picks are really good players.

After that, you know, the percentages go down. But Harbaugh's ability to know personnel because of the last decade at Michigan is going to be incredibly beneficial. This is not a big lift. That you've got to move off probably a Khalil Mack. You get more for Bosa, but they'll probably, he's a little fragile, but they'll probably keep both, I would guess, move off Khalil Mack. You know, they may move off a Derwin James, not sure what they do with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. But what they need, they have what the draft is furnishing at the very top.

So they have the ability to move down several spots and accumulate more picks. And Harbaal will crush it with his picks. The other thing is they don't really have a situation where Dean Spanos is not a meddler. He's really not. Now, you could argue in San Diego, they had a small staff, they didn't spend enough money, you can argue they were cheap. I don't view them similarly in Los Angeles, and he's not a meddler. Their Spanos kids are in the building. But again, on the operational side, Tom Telesco had free reign to do what he wanted to do. Tom's a good friend, never badmouthed the Chargers, loved his job,

wishes he wouldn't have missed on J.C. Jackson, but he furnished Harbaugh with a lot of good players, and now they've got a really good pick. So this is really a point. perfect situation and a very easy lift hit on some draft picks. This is not Tennessee or Atlanta or Washington or New England or even Denver. We had a quarterback with a massive cap hit. Herbert's still a year away from being a punitive cap hit. They are about 45 million over, but again, you can circumvent some of that stuff by hitting on draft picks and moving out a couple of players. I think Harbaugh is just very unique personality. I've said this before. Both Harbaugh is you can't pigeonhole. John Harbaugh knows offense. Jim Harbaugh knows defense. When Harbaugh was in San Francisco, they had four top

10 defenses with the Niners. No top 10 offenses. They were a mess. I don't think they'd had a winning season in eight years previous to Harbaugh. And he turned that thing around in year one, Michigan, year one. Stanford, I think, took a couple of years, but he had some upset wins in the first year. So this is not a big lift. Boy, what a division. Andy Reed, Sean Payton, Jim Harbaugh. Those are really, really good football coaches. But the thing about the Chargers is some businesses just need a new boss. Some need a culture changer. Washington commanders need a culture changer and a coach. The Chargers need a culture changer and a coach. I think Atlanta just needs a coach. I think they have a good owner, Rich McKay, really nice pieces offensively. They just need a quarterback and the right coach. I don't think

they're a lousy culture. Washington and the Chargers, just too many missteps. The staley thing was a bit of a mess. It just feels like they have to kind of write the ship, a strong, this L.A. market's crowded, man. It's a crowded market. People get distracted. If you're not good, people have options. The beach, the mountains, Vegas is a 40-minute flight away. Rams, Dodgers, USC, UCLA, Clippers, Lakers, it's distracted. You've got to win. And so I think Harbaugh is going to win his first year. I think he's going to win a lot. I think they're going to be a high-end playoff team immediately. And I can't wait for it. Falcons did not hire Bill Belichick, who I thought if he wanted personnel control was one of the weaker candidates. I'm not interested in that. They hired Rahim Morris.

So Rahim was a coach and Tampa didn't work. It was a great assistant after Brandon Staley left for the Rams became McVey's best friend on the staff and did very, very well with a really young defense. Morris is one of those guys like D'Amico Ryan's or Sean McVeigh, very impressive in person, kind of, you know, just a guy eye contact, really smart, point of view. So Rahim interviews very well. I've been told that in numerous occasions. Probably I would have gone after maybe a Mike Vrable. Again, defensive coach. They don't have a quarterback. But I think This is what Belichick is falling into, is that it's really funny that Bill doesn't really have any vulnerability. Like, Bill's going to do what Bill wants to do.

That's why he's got his kids on the staff, and he hires coaches who are, he had a very weak staff, he got multiple fired guys in New England. So, you know, Bill wants more control than Arthur Blank and Rich McKay are willing to give. And had Bill read the room, he would have known that Arthur Blank has never hired a big time head coach. He's always given it to up-and-coming coaches who don't feel like they have to own the room. Blank's a brilliant businessman. Rich McKay is excellent with operations and certainly knows talent. Terry Fontenow from the Saints is a well, smart guy that's well thought of around the league.

I mean, he's not, you know, we don't look at him quite as a less Sneed maybe yet or a Mickey Loomis in New Orleans yet or a Howie Roseman. or a Brett Veach, but he is well thought of. But I think Belichick, the thing that worries you if you're Atlanta, he's a milestone guy. Is he really care about Atlanta? Never, never coached, really. I mean, head coach in Cleveland. Then in New England, he didn't know much about the NFC South. He has drafted 15 quarterbacks, one star Brady, one starter Garapolo, two to three capable backups, and 10 misses.

So I think Bill was going up against recent history in Atlanta where they're going to take a Dan Quinn. They're going to take a Rahim Morris. They're going to take a young up-and-coming assistant that's not going to need to dominate personnel. And I'll be honest with you, the Seahawks' last two drafts have been much stronger when John Snyder was empowered by ownership and controlled the drafts. Pete, in a vacuum in Seattle, when Paul Allen died, had a lot of power. It frustrated John Snyder, who went and sought the Detroit Lions job, got a raise. They brought him back to Seattle, and there were some assurances that he would have more control in the draft. I have it on two different sources who I trust implicitly is that Pete would sometimes have a very

strong opinion, and it would sway the Seahawks' drafts. And for years and years, I was told this for years by people in the league I respected that Seahawks drafts were unpredictable. Now, Pete's were very good when he came out of college, out of USC, at a two or three-year run where they're excellent. But like most pro coaches, he's not sitting around watching college football all Saturday. He's looking at NFL stuff and NFL personnel and film. And I thought Seattle's drafts got much better in the last couple of years when John Snyder exerted more power. I think Belichick's last seven drafts have mostly been absolutely abysmal. Why? Once again, I have it sourced for multiple people that as he started stacking rings and networked, and power. He was more difficult for Brady to deal with. And he told mid-January, the draft department, the scouts, I got it from here. It's hard to find any hits in the last seven drafts on the

offensive side. They've had two pro bowlers, one's a punter. So I don't think coach, I remember when Mike Holmgren was in Seattle years ago, great coach. He had a little bit too much power when he first started in Seattle. He struggled with a couple of early drafts. You're asking, drafting is hard enough for great jams. Howie Roseman has had huge whiffs and how he's brilliant and completely dedicated. So the idea that Bill Belichick, any of these coaches want over 50% power, John Gruden, by the way, with the Raiders, had the final say with Mike Mayock. I know that because it's sourced. Go look at the Raiders' first round picks. In later rounds, Gruden would let Mayock have more control. But in that first round,

round. There's first second round. John thought he was the television, John Gruden, and exerted too much power and control, and they had multiple major whiffs. Gruden, Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick, Mike Holmgren. Those are just four examples. The best way to do it is Les Sneed and the Rams and Sean McVeigh, where McVeigh has absolute say, but they really work collaboratively. They really worked together very, very well. Sean, if he does have the final say, is very respectful about it, but they're really committed to the process from beginning to end. And last year, they had a sensational draft outside of Stetson Bennett, who had struggled, I think, with some things personally, and they're not sure if that's going to work. He was a fourth-round pick, but they nailed their

second-round pick, two-thirds, multiple-fifths. It was a great draft for them. Even picked up some guys late in the sixth and seventh round. So, you know, Belichick has got to read the room. His drafting record is atrocious. And though Rahim Morris, I probably would have gone to the offensive side, they just had an offensive coach. And it didn't work. So there is a history in this league. Demico Ryan's is the latest. If you have a top defensive coach and a star quarterback and C.J. Stroud certainly emerged. Looks like a star top six, seven quarterback. You can hoist trophies. I don't think defensive coaches are as good with marginal quarterback talent. I don't think they're good when they have a disruption at quarterback, a backup, like a Gardner Minshue or a Joe Flacco.

Shane Steichen and Kevin Stifansky hit it out of the park. But if you have a Lamar Jackson or a Josh Allen or a C.J. Stroud or Brady in his prime or Big Ben in his prime, I'm okay with defensive coaches. So if they nail, if they draft the third of the fourth quarterback and nail it, Rahim Morris be a fine coach. If they draft somebody and it doesn't hit and they're marginal, he'll probably struggle. It is a weak division. But Belichick didn't get it. He didn't get the Chargers. Reportedly, Ben Johnson is a slam dunk in Washington. To me, those were the three best jobs. Carolina, nope, that's taken two by a young coach. So, and when you get older, Belichick, a year off is not an advantage. That's not necessarily an advantage.

Sean Payton was seen closer to his prime. Mike Vrable seen as closer to his prime. Belichick is, and his draft record shows it. Allergic to offense, tone-deaf offensively, not building great staffs. He is not only past his prime, he's well past it. Just say that. Draft King Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL is bringing you, yes, an offer that will help you when

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by jurisdiction, void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. See sportsbook.draftkings.com slash basketball terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

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Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow apps. at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics

from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the eye-heartedly. Art Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. John Middlakov, former NFL Scout, host a podcast on the volume 3 and out. I thought if Buffalo won, they were in big trouble against Baltimore. I bet two healthy linebackers going to Boston.

I think Kansas City, so the line is Baltimore minus three. I thought Kansas City has a real shot to win that game. I felt like Buffalo, they were just falling apart physically. And I think that thing that's frustrating, if you're a building, fan is that it just becomes so Josh Allen dependent. You can't count on the defense. You can't count on health. Now you can't count on the kicker. McDermott's fake punt. I can't count on the coach. It just always feels like Josh puts the cape on. And when they lose, you're like, he's not the issue. And it just feels like, you know, in previous years, there was no run game. Now they have a run game.

In previous years, there was weakness in the conference. It's, it's, this is, this is, This was the year for Buffalo, John. Kansas City doesn't have a number two receiver. They have some undependable Hardman, Tony, some players. Now, Tony didn't play today, right? No, yeah. But they have these players all year long, and you saw it today with a fumble at the goal line. Kansas City opens the door to beat them multiple times a game now.

They never did in the previous five years. And Buffalo at home still can't. can't put them away. Yeah, to me, this is the worst loss. I just don't see how you shake this if you're that franchise, because like you said, you're playing this team that kind of comes limping in relative to what they've been. Who made big play after big play today was Valdez Scantling. He hasn't caught a cold all season long. He had multiple huge catches. Yeah. I think when you're a player or two away, like Buffalo was banned, like the 49ers have been, like the Chiefs, and you buy a big free agent, you need that guy to hit. So look at the 49ers, right?

They get Charvarius, Ward, and Hargrave. Immediately those guys are pro bowlers. Right? The Chiefs, they signed Justin Reed a couple years ago. You feel them all over the field. They went all in on Vaughn Miller. Now, he tore his ACL, but it was an older player, and that was a disaster. And when you are paying a lot of guys money and you go all in on one player, then he gets injured and he's clearly a shell of himself now,

you feel that. Like, where are their impact players beside, like you said? They're built like a basketball team right now. And they have a superstar player. and when he's, you know, incredible like he was today, making plays left and right, but your margin for error is still so tiny. And like you said, they had guys dropping like flies. The injuries were starting to mount up.

And some of those guys that got hurt came back in the game. You're like, thank God, I don't know who he would have thrown to. But man, to miss that kick, I mean, this is a franchise that does feel a little snake-bitten. And who knows? I mean, listen, Shaw McDermott going forward on that punt. They got bailed out, obviously, by the fumble a couple of plays later. but that was a questionable move. You're playing a team that's offense.

The entire season has struggled. Like you just punt, and I get your punters hurt. That was a huge part of this game, right? Their punters hurt, he could barely punt. So to lose that game at home as the favor, that's something it's hard to shake. Nick Wright, I want to throw this set. Yeah, I thought about this.

I really do think Andy Reid has an argument as in that Bill Walsh vein is, I think he really is one of the three or four seminal great coaches in my lifetime. He's aged so gracefully in terms of his intellect. And he takes, it's almost a joyful experience. He'll text me in the offseason plays. He'll go, he'll send me a piece of video. He goes, I'm running this. I'm not telling you when, but I'm running it.

I mean, he's like a kid. So nobody's ever, of all the 30 for 30s that haven't been made, the one, I think I've told you this before that's never been made that I would love to see it. Michael Jordan, the wizard years. What a disaster it was. The players hated him. Nobody's ever made it. People forget what a mess it was, but I imagine Jordan has the ability to stop it and talk about it and others won't badmouth them. But those years disappear into the ether. REM was a band that I loved. And then they went off the rails, in my opinion, and started sounding different. And I never listened to them again. But I still love REM. I don't hold it against them. The greatest actors have been in terrible movies. Marlon Brando was in, you know, six or seven classics and six or seven awful movies.

It's never held against him. Yet with Belichick, I cannot unsee the last four years in New England. He is completely tone deaf. He can't draft. It's as if he has no understanding of offense. He can't draft it. He can't develop it. He can't hire.

it. And it really, it's making, I can't get rid of it. I can get rid of Jordan, bad movies. I don't punish actors, directors, stars. I can't unsee what I've seen from Belichick in four years. I can't keep him in the Walsh vein. And I'm, and if Andy reels off a couple more, so that, so this is something you said, you said this for the first time before the Chiefs won last year. I remember. It was before, it was. It was. It was when it looked like they really could, but they hadn't yet won. I think it was maybe the week leading up to the Super Bowl, but you started to, I think, kind of soft-launched the idea of could Andy Reid become the greatest coach of all time?

And when you first said it, I think everyone's immediate reaction is that's ridiculous. Like, no. But what I don't think people recognize, and I'm just going to pull it up real quick, NFL head coaches wins Wiki. I don't think people understand where he is right now on the wins list because it is way higher than you think. So he has regular season and postseason combined. So he's 24 plus 258. So he is at 282 total wins. He is fourth all time on that list.

All right. He is probably not going to catch Bill, but he is got a real chance of finishing third all time and passing George Howells, right? On just playoff wins, he could absolutely catch Bill. Bill's at 31. Andy is at 24. Isn't that incredible? That's it. It doesn't.

It's incredible. And so it's like, wait a minute. Then the other thing, because I had this graphic for first things first, we never used it. But it was Pete Carroll, who's obviously in a different class. But Pete Carroll's record with Russell Wilson, without Russell Wilson. And it's like really, really, pardon me, really, really good, not good at all. Belichick with Brady, without Brady. Unbelievable.

And then below 500. Andy with Mahomes, without Mahomes. And it's unbelievable. And then it's really damn good. Yes. So it is. And Donovan McNabb was good, not great. He was good.

Mike Vic, post prison. What I love Michael was good. He had one great year, but how much of that was because of Andy? Was that, you know what I mean? Andy put his arms around him. Andy helped him. Oh, Michael Vic acknowledges it was because of Andy. Absolutely. Alex Smith, the only section of his career that was highly successful was with Andy.

So it's not that he had nobody's a quarterback. I'm not saying that. But he was able to win divisions, win playoff games, go to conference championships, and go to a Super Bowl without a Hall of Fame quarterback. Did all of that. And then the moment he got the Hall of Fame quarterback instantly, it was the most prolific offense in the history of the league that first year. Yes. And so there is something to be set. And his dexterity, it's like the reason we look at Prince as one of the great musicians, his ability to, I mean, like classically play multiple instruments.

That's why he separates from other even great musicians. performers, his dexterity, Andy's ability, conference, division, quarterback to win everywhere. There is no way to separate Belichick's career other than Brady years, non-Bradie years. And those are increasingly not just mediocre. They're getting to be embarrassing, out of touch. Right. And so, and the other part of it that is just the truth of it. And every, some people don't like when I, someone makes this point or I make this point.

But the opposite of it, like, sometimes the best way to understand if an argument is a legitimate one is imagine if the exact opposite happened, what your feelings would be. Oh, that's good. If Tom Brady went to Tampa and they were three and 13 and the next year, four and 12, and then he retired, would that, be a plus or a minus for Bill's resume. That it would obviously be a plus. Now, it would be a little different because he was older. He'd be like, ah, you got old. But it would be a plus.

It would be like, hey, Tom left there. They had two years prior, won the Super Bowl. The previous year, they had won 11, 12 games and been in the playoffs. And then immediately fell, you know what I mean, fell apart. Instead, he left and immediately won the Super Bowl. And the next year, almost won league in. MVP and was in round two of the Super Bowl in a close in a tie game with a minute left. So, or round two of the plus, I should say.

So that obviously hurts Bill a bit. Maybe it's not fair, but it is what it is that Tom was able to leave and have the highest success one can have individually and team-wise. One of Super Bowl came in second and MVP voting. When Tom left, Bill's team, it went. for mediocre to downright awful in a very short period of time. And so that's a part, which is why I thought it was something, that it was going to be so important for Bill to go coach the Cowboys or the Eagles or the Bill's where he can then even the score to a degree.

Because it would then help Bill immensely. If the Cowboys haven't been able to get over the hump for 30 years, he gets there and they do, then it's like, oh, okay, you know, I mean, that was him. He just had problems drafting players the last few years. And so it is, it is a, at least an interesting idea. And here's the other thing that I would say. And this is why I think the Count the Rings stuff across sports,

this is not a LeBron argument, but it touches it, can be so foolish. Yes, yes. The Count the Rings thing demands that we simply say both Brady and Belichick are the greatest of all time. But those rings are so, you understand what I mean?

Like they both have a little Brady now is seven, but let's just say Brady retired right when the Patriots era ended, that he retired. And the Count the Rings thing demands that Phil and Michael and that these things. But that then, it almost creates an extra ring.

I know I'm not describing this properly, but the Brady and Belichick's rings are intertwined, yet they both get 100% credit when compared to other quarterbacks or other coaches. There's no shared credit. And so if we're just doing count the rings, then it has to be the, you know what I mean? They're both the greatest of all time when I don't really feel that way. All right, Chad Millman's CCO Action Network Sharper Square, all odds provided by a draft King. So had I bet last week, I would have gone three and one. I had the bills. Shame on me. Everything else. Everything else. I was on the right side. Come on. Come on. No, no, no, no. You don't get credit

for had I begged. You either did or you didn't. Well, gave my picks. There is no try. There is do or do not. You didn't do anything last week. You watched some football and maybe you were right about what you were thinking. Okay, so this week, I love the picks. I think the lines are wrong this week. First of all, we are overvaluing the Chiefs because they played a completely decimated Miami defense in minus 27 degrees with a quarterback

that can't throw the ball deep. And then they play an absolutely ravaged Bill's defense missing six starters. So we're overvaluing who they are. Baltimore is a team that wrecked San Francisco, dominated Miami, destroyed Detroit. You know my favorite number in this business, minus four. I think the Ravens roll.

Mahomes is hard to blow out, but I don't think they'll have success running it with Pacheco. Here comes Marlon Humphrey back to guard Rishie Rice. I think the Ravens are one of the best playoff bets, believe it or not, at minus four, sharper square. so sharp that if you end up not betting it and then just thinking about betting it, you're doing yourself a disservice. It was sharp when it was minus three last Sunday. It was sharp when it was three and a half. It's still sharp at four. The wise guys love the Ravens in this game. It is a scary, scary bet. Not because of what the chiefs have done

the past two weeks, and you're using the right terminology. They're overvalued based on their season long results. But it's still Patrick Mahomes, man, and it's still Patrick Mahomes, who's 9-1-1 in his career as an underdog, who's 2-0 straight up in his career as an underdog, who's 8 and 3 straight up in his career as an underdog, who's eight and three straight up in his career as an underdog. The reason why this bet is scary is because the idea of betting against Patrick Mahomes late in the game and he is stepping up in the pocket against a really good pass rush and you don't know where the ball is going yet because you can't see it on TV and who's on the other end of it, you have no idea, but you're pretty sure it's going to be

completed and you're pretty sure it's going to be a long pass because someone was in single coverage and some receiver is wide open. That's the fear. So you're right. Sharps are on it. Sharps love it. Defense is dominating for Baltimore and their rush offense will destroy the Chiefs rush defense and the Chiefs, by the way, missing Joe Tuny, their offensive guard. Yep. Who was one of the highest rated pass blocking guards according to pro football focus. in every way. The Ravens should destroy the Chiefs, except the Chiefs have a cheat code in Patrick Mahomes.

So I will tell you what I've done, which is only slightly less untoward and cowardly than claiming credit for Beth you didn't make. I bet the Ravens minus two and a half first half. All right. Because I'm scared, because I'm afraid of Patrick Mahomes. But every other wise guy is piling in on the Ravens and agree with you 100%.

All right. I like the Lions plus seven and a half. So if you take, I do this with big games. I take the top 10 players and then the top 15. The Lions are stacked. I have eight seven lions, eight players to seven for the Niners. Now, if you go top five, McCaffrey, Bosa, Trent Williams,

but when you start extrapolating from the fourth best player, and it's Pena Soule, and it's Hutchison, and it's Homer on St. Brown, and it's Jared Goff's the better quarterback. The weather's not a factor. We know this is a team that doesn't play well in windy or cold weather. It's going to be 67 degrees. It's going to be dry. There's going to be no wind.

Jared Goff played plenty of outdoor games in the Bay Area. He's fine. This offensive lines better. The Niners' offensive line's center right is actually one of the weak spots on the team. Neither team has a great secondary. What concerns me about San Francisco, the names are bigger than the production up front defensively. Their rush has been hit and miss over the last six, seven weeks.

Bosa, absolutely. Chase Young, meh. You're not getting the names right now. It's like a hotel chain you went to when you're a kid. You go about 10 years later and you're like, it's kind of an average hotel. The name's bigger than the property, right? You've seen that with golf courses, hotels. I think right now I can't unsee the Ravens.

crushing them or the Packers out playing them, I think Detroit matches up, may not win. I think seven and a half. I think the number should be closer to six, five and a half. I'm taking the lion sharper square. So the wise guys have been on the Niners. It's one of the reasons why this number is moving.

In fact, it's a really interesting stat. The lions are a huge liability for the sports books this weekend. That's right. Not because there's so many people on the lions at plus seven and a half. there's 44% of the money according to our tracking on the lion's money line. Like people are just piling on the lions to win this game outright, more than they like the lions to actually cover the spread. But the wise guys have been on the Niners.

And there's a couple factors in play. You cannot discount how bad this lion's secondary is, right? Look at what they've given up to players like Nick Mullins, multiple 400 or near 400 yard games. Baker Mayfield more than 350. Matthew Stafford more than 350. Brock Purdy, there should be no bashing of Brock Purdy. All the guy is done in a season and a half is starting is lead his team to two different

NFC title games, lead the league in passing yards, and be as effective and efficient as any quarterback Kyle Shanahan has had. And he's the reason why he is closer to winning a Super Bowl than he has ever been. this is a much better team than the Lions across the board. And there's a real big factor, I think, for the Lions, their offensive line, Jonah Jackson isn't going to be playing in this game. When Jonah Jackson played this past week against a heavy blitz from the Buccaneers, zero pressures in any of his snaps.

He goes out at the end of the game, seven pressures and 18 snaps given up by his replacement. Jared Goff getting pressure up the middle when he cannot step up is not the same quarterback no matter what the conditions are. So wise guys are back in the Niners here. Also, the X factor. It's Debo Samuel. Look, when the Niners have Debo Samuel, 12 and 1 this year, winning games by an average of 18 points per game.

There's one game when they did not win by double digits that was week two on the road at the Rams, a division game. They only won by seven. Debo is a complete game changer. And I am checking Debo's availability. Because I already bet the Niners minus six and a half. I am checking his availability nonstop. And he's still 50-50 progress.

But in pain, he's a major, major factor for this game. So even without Debo, the wise guys have been betting the Niners with Debo, I think you'll see this number skyrocket. Yeah, by the way, he does get a break played on Saturday. Now this game's on Sunday. So you get another 24 hours. And we know with surgery or injuries, 24 hours is a long time. I want to ask you about Jim Harbaugh. So it was funny.

I was in Los Angeles. You know, they called the city of angels. I've heard that, yes. And Harbaugh is no angel. But it was nonstop wall-to-wall coverage of Harbaugh in Los Angeles, the second biggest city in the country. And I said to somebody that I know that's close to the Chargers, I said, you guys probably made about $6 million yesterday in coverage. It was, it was wall.

It led every newscast. I mean, it was the story in L.A. And then the Chargers have 51,000 season tickets. If they can get to about 57,5, which they could probably sell the stadium out now with Herbert and Harbaugh, but they don't want to because as a warm other city, they want the Denver's and Kansas cities to come in and to be able to elevate the prices based on how hot and how big the game is. So if they get to like 57, 58,000. season tickets, that extra 6,000 plus all the publicity you get, you kind of pay for Harbaot 20 million

bucks a year. So Harbaught, not that he's a bargain, but this feels like seven of the 12 losses for the Chargers were three or less significantly more than the league. So this is not a rebuild like Houston. This is like a five-win team that could win 11, and it feels totally reasonable. where would you put the over under if you had to if you I thought to myself am I nuts it's 10 am I nuts so it's funny you say that um A I love the way you're thinking about the economics of this deal it's not that dissimilar remember when ESPN went out and signed troy eggman and Joe Buck for eight figure yearly contracts everyone's like what are they doing meanwhile it puts them in better with the NFL they get better games the ad rates go up they

sell more commercial time. The ratings go up. Those deals were paid for in one game, right? You just made the same point with Harbaugh. It doesn't matter what they pay him. They were going to pay for it in some way, shape, or form by the publicity they were getting and the attention they were getting. And, oh, by the way, it's going to be such a better product on the field. He is a game-changing coach. He has been that way everywhere. He has gone. What he does is drive the people that he works for crazy. And that's when he ends up, you know, burning out his welcome. But he will have this team ready to be very competitive and be a contender in the AFC very, very quickly. When you were asking win total, my first instinct was nine. And you're saying 10. I could see it at 10 because bookmakers

might feel like they can take advantage of the public and set it a little bit higher. Yeah. Because they can say, all right, Jim Harbaugh is getting so much attention. We know they're going to want to bet the over no matter what it is. So let's set it at 10 and let's see what we can sort of get in terms of some sucker money. But I would not bet against Jim Harbaugh. I love the guy. Love the guy as a coach. I think he's amazing.

So the public could do very well if Detroit wins, but the public had a very good year betting. I want to circle back to one of my theories on this because I had a very good year betting. And it took me about four weeks to figure it out. But I was overthinking the room. and I've done this in the AFC playoffs, where I'm 5 and O basically picking the best quarterback. I took Stroud over Flacco, the sharps like Flacco, and I'm taking golf to cover against Purdy. In fact, I took love over Purdy and he outplayed him. Is that, do you believe now on a macro level that some, I mean, you'll tweak everything you do because you're a professional gambler, but there is a dynamic now that has to be considered.

the young quarterbacks that come in if they've got two years starting and all those camps and the new culture, it's a cottage industry quarterback. They're better, faster, the coaching's better. And increasingly, there's more offensive coaches. And that the best quarterback, it's harder than it's ever been to bet against them. Because I find myself a default. In fact, a prime example, I took Kyler Murray several times. I didn't think Arizona was better. But like against Philadelphia, I'm like, Jalen's struggling. He may bet better than Kyler, but Kyler's healthy, rested, I'm taking Kyler. Will you tweak over the course of a season seeing these trends, which appear to be substantial?

It may only be a half point to a point. But one of the teams I didn't bet this year that a lot of people did was the Colts, because I just couldn't buy in a gardener Minshew as much as I like Shane Steichen. your take-oh-am sort of my rambling here about this changing it feels like the league

is slightly changing for betting so there's there's three different things that I want to that I want to pick out of that number one great year for the public

favorites were winning at an unprecedented clip and if you're like me and you like to play underdogs and you find value in the underdogs and when you model these things you're playing on the idea that bookmakers are going to

overvalue favorites because that's where they can expect the public to come in, so they're going to give you an advantage. This year, it didn't matter as much, right? So that's number one. Do I think that's a trend? Do I think that there is going to be regression for that? My guess is there will be regression. There are some things that are irrefutable when it comes to betting. Regression is irrefutable, right? Number one. Number two, the quarterbacks, betting, and we've talked about this a lot, this week on my podcast because the chiefs and the Ravens are a perfect example of trying to figure out when you are betting how to ride the wave and then get off the wave before it crests. Historically, you look at Lamar Jackson, terrible as a favorite of more than three and a half or

more. Patrick Mahomes, amazing as an underdog of three or any number, right? So last week, we were betting on the Texans because we felt like Lamar Jackson hasn't proven it yet. We were betting on the Chiefs because we felt like we were betting against the Chiefs because we felt like at two and a half, the bills were the right side and Patrick Mahomes time has passed because this team isn't as good. Missed on both counts because the wave went one way and we were expecting it could go a different way with the Ravens and the wave was. went one way and we were expecting it to stay the same with the chiefs. And so this week, trying to thread that needle, are we betting on Lamar Jackson? Do we think he's over the hump on the stressful situations and choking in the playoffs?

Are we betting on Patrick Mahomes? Because what we've seen out of him, no matter what his team has been, has been so good so often. That is the biggest challenge. And adjusting that, it's really, really hard. And this is a game where you sort of measure it. The reason I'm taking Lamar over Mahomes, I consider Mahomes better. But as I told you circumstantially with Kyler Murray, I believe Lamar is at home with better protection and significantly better weapons.

So it's not just who's better. Circumstances, weather, where's the game, what are your weapons? I think with Marlon Humphrey's coming back, taking on Rishi Rice, you're not going to run much on Baltimore. I think Mahomes is going to be very frustrated in this game. at times. And I think Lamar, I think Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews back, I think Zay Flowers has been, I mean, just a seminal change in his career. I mean, Lamar has, he's got his, you know, Stafford is Cooper Cup. He's got his safety valve. He never had one. It was a tight end. So in that instance, I like Lamar because I think he'll be the better quarterback in this game.

I think Goff will have better protection, better protection. And I'm betting that Debo doesn't play much so that Goff will be the better quarterback in this game. May not win, but I don't think you're getting 48 snaps from Debo. I think you're getting 18. And therefore, I like the weaponry of Amoran-St. Brown, Leporta, Gibbs, Montgomery. So, and he'll have better protection. So in this instance, I believe I am taking, well, Goff is better than Purdy as a natural thrower, I'm taking the better quarterback circumstantially and what he's surrounded by. So that's why I'm taking my pick. So Again, this is the classic, I know that Malmes is better than Lamar. I don't think he's got great protection this year.

Now, he's not getting sacked much because he's very nimble. This Baltimore Front is the best linebacking crew in football. This Front 7 is really athletic and really twitchy for big athletes. And I think he's going to be under some duress. So to your point about the quarterbacks, it's a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yes, because the big. better quarterback is almost always on the better team. And so if you want to bet on the better quarterback, they're almost always going to be on the favorite. And this year, the favorites were winning

at a larger clip than they ever have before. So the real test of your theory, and this is what's interesting about betting, is you don't bet for the week. You bet for your life, right? And how did you do this year? How did you do the next year? How do you do the year after that? Does that trend continue to whole. That's why trends can be an interesting complement to anything you're doing when you're talking about betting. We're talking about what's happening on the field. That's really important. A trend is a good complement to anything you're thinking about on the field. It's not the reason you make the bet. So will the Colin Coward good quarterback theory hold up next year? That's when we start to know if that's really something that is sustainable. As for the game, I think what

you're saying about the Chiefs' Offensive line is critical. I think the middle of the field for the Chiefs in this game against the Ravens defense is critical. The Chiefs are not an explosive offense at all. If Marlon Humphrey is back, like you say, and he is locking up Rishie Rice, which is what the expectation is, the Ravens are not the bills who are starting A.J. Klein. They are not the dolphins who are decimated at every level of their defense. They are Patrick Queen. They are Roquan Smith defending the middle of the field who can do wonders when they're patrolling that middle of the field. And as we said before, Joe Tunney, offensive guard for the chiefs not to be playing, that also will make it difficult for Patrick Mahomes to step up into the

pocket. There's nothing scarier for a quarterback than not being able to step up, right? They like to roll out. They like to be able to step up against pressure that is coming in from the edges. I think that's going to be a real handicap for Patrick Mahomes in this game. So I completely agree with your theory on why you like the Ravens and why Lamar could be the better quarterback in this it. That's why the Sharps believe it too. The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review.

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