The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Kyrie, Elon Twitter Takes, Joe Burrow on Panthers Bounceback, Chase Injury + Week 9 Best Bets
Episode Date: November 5, 2022This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Top Takes, including why Steve Nash had enough of Kyrie Irving’s nonsense with the Nets, why he’s confused by constant rumors abou...t Sean McVay retiring from coaching, and why he rolls his eyes at media bellyaching over Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover. Then, Bengals Quarterback Joe Burrow on what went wrong in the rough Monday Night Football loss to the Browns, the similarities between last year and this year's Bengals, talking football with Peyton Manning, how his point guard style reflects his QB style, his plans for the Week 10 bye week, the mood in an NFL locker room at the trade deadline, and how his approach changes playing the Panthers on short week without an injured Ja’Marr Chase. Finally, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 9 picks are "sharp" or "square" for Chargers/Falcons, Vikings/Commanders, Packers/Lions, Dolphins/Bears, Ravens/Saints, Colts/Patriots, Raiders/Jags, and Seahawks/Cardinals. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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This is Prime Cuts.
Best of the Colin Coward podcast.
I'm going to be honest.
I was damn good this week.
Joe Burrow, Chad Millman, I got a lot of takes.
There were a lot of frothy takes out there.
Also, I want to thank you.
But the only way you,
you can hear me thank you is to go to the prime cuts.
It's called a tease, baby.
Let me start by saying this.
A couple times a year, I know that, you know, I'm on all these platforms and I don't reach out a lot.
But I also think it's important to thank you from time to time.
So a couple times a year I want to come out and just say, hey, thank you very much for our support.
So I got some information yesterday on a lot of different things at the volume.
and premier radio, I Heart Radio, my radio show.
We had over 30 million downloads, podcast downloads,
just on my radio show for October.
Shattered every record we had.
Well over 30 million.
And I just want to say thank you for that support.
There's a million choices out there.
I added Jason McIntyre to the show,
and I think he's funny.
and I can pitch him shit.
He pitches it back.
You know, anytime you bring on somebody new to the show, it's a new show.
And so I think he's done a really nice job to ingratiate himself to the staff, to come in.
He loves his gambling.
He really is a well-connected guy.
So he's been terrific.
And it makes me really happy because I've known Jason for over a decade.
He's a total grinder.
He's my kind of guy.
And he's just having great success.
The audience is responding.
and it makes me really, really happy.
He's a great guy, works hard, family man.
And so again, thank you for your support.
Three things I want to talk about.
Number one.
So Steve Nash mutually parted ways with the Brooklyn Nets.
I think Steve Nash wanted out because I don't know Steve Nash well,
but I know him.
And I know a couple of people who know him well.
And Steve Nash had said in the offseason that, you know, he was he was at Wits End.
He missed Manhattan Beach, the lifestyle, the volleyball, the casual nature of it, the quality of life, that, you know, the NBA is a hard league to coach in.
Our basketball cultures in America and our football cultures in America are very different.
And the football culture is the coach has ultimate power.
you can be cut in professional football.
Even Tom Brady could be cut.
You don't get the guaranteed long contracts.
Players have shorter careers due to a regular level of violence.
Players have to go to college for three or four years where they are just part of a collective.
The biggest stars in college football, you know, it's often the coach.
Nick Sabin's bigger than any Alabama player.
And so players walk into the NFL.
even the stars, they're humble, they're hungry.
The football culture, the football media is tougher on players.
So they've got thick skins, most of them, developed through high school and college football.
And the reality of NFL football, where your careers are short, you're being tackled, the physical nature of it.
And coaches have control.
NBA basketball as a whole, that culture is different.
Spot talent at 12 and 13 years old.
and then coddle it. Tell it how smart it is, how great it is. I mean, the NBA, you couldn't have
even voted for Donald Trump. And I'm no Trump fan. If that got out, you'd be ostracized in the league.
You know, there's one way to vote, one way to think. And players tend to be, you know, one year of
college, shoe deals, big money early, can't be cut, and they have more power.
I have no problem with basketball players in America having more power because the
rosters are smaller and individual players can have more of an impact on the outcome.
So it doesn't bother me.
But when Adam Silver said, you know, my players are miserable, that's because pro basketball
is the first time anybody's told them no or has ridiculed them or criticized them.
You don't hear football players complaining about the internet.
You don't hear Roger Goodell saying, my players are miserable.
If you're miserable making $30 million a year for shooting a basketball and making $20 million selling shoes, you know, maybe it's not criticism on Twitter or social media.
Maybe it's you.
And, you know, Kyrie Irving is part of the basketball culture that you don't see it with a lot of players.
but Kyrie Irving has been told how great he is that he has no interest in being part of a culture, being coached.
He mocks.
He rolls his eyes at being coached.
Remember what he said before he got to Brooklyn or when he got to Brooklyn?
We don't really need a coach here.
He thinks that.
He believes that.
Like Steve Kerr, Popovich, Eric Spolstra, Ty Lou have no value.
Can you imagine not only thinking that, but saying it out loud that every football player knows coaches matter.
So basketball players have this ultimate power very early in pro basketball.
And if you were told yes, your entire life, if you got everything you wanted all the time,
you'd think you were pretty special.
I mean, Kauai Leonard, I don't feel like playing.
Ben Simmons, I don't feel like shooting.
Kyrie, I don't feel like being coached.
It feels like you get a lot of that in professional basketball.
I don't feel like I get a lot of that in pro football.
I mean, you occasionally get a player that goes off the rails like Antonio Brown,
but it's very, very rare.
And most of your star players are coachable.
You know, like just feel like you can coach them hard.
They play hard.
They show up.
They can take criticism, even if it's social media.
The basketball coacher in America, I mean, I love basketball.
But Kyrie has come to the point where he doesn't elevate teammates.
He doesn't want to be coached.
I mean, if you're ever quoting or agreeing with Alex Jones ever once, like the line between
winner and loser in America isn't how much money you made.
make. It isn't your educational background. If you've ever agreed with Alex Jones on anything,
you're a loser. There's no debate on that. He is the biggest L on the internet. And if you've
ever once agreed with him or quoted him, you're in the L side. There's the winner's side and the
loser side. The half side and the have not side. Ever quote or agree with Alex Jones, that's the line.
And I think Steve Nash listened to some of these Kyrie Irving comments and anti-Semitic nonsense and agreeing with Alex Jones.
I just think Steve Nash was disgusted.
And I think Steve Nash had enough.
Sean McVeigh has intimated like two or three times in the last six months that he's going to retire early.
You know, he's 36 years old, going to retire early.
And I laugh at this.
Pete Carroll is 70 years old.
Have you ever seen him on the sideline?
Does he look miserable?
You know who's miserable?
Old guys walking around with their wives at a mall at 74 years old.
They don't want to be doing that.
They got nothing to do.
Go to any mall in America at 10 in the morning.
See guys with those tennis shoes on, 75-year-old men, you know, the kind of you Velcro.
And they're sitting over there wearing their dockers, walking around.
around and they're fucking miserable.
Absolutely miserable.
They can't wait to be able to have their first gin and tonic at a 12, 15 in the afternoon.
They want to be sauce by the time Matlock comes on.
Sean McVeigh will never find anything that makes him happier.
And I'm not talking like wife, kid, obviously.
That's the happiest I ever am or you are.
But this idea of this race to retire.
Come on, man.
Folks, many of you hate me.
here's the bad news.
I'm going to die on the air.
I'm going to be 88 years old giving sports takes.
My teeth are going to fall out of my mouth on the air.
And then the Dodgers will be a world series.
Cuckalunk.
My teeth will fall out, my dentures.
I talk sports.
These guys coach football.
Talking sports keeps me young.
Coaching football.
Coaching 27-year-olds keeps you young.
race to retire. I get it if you work at a lug nut factory. Don't get me wrong. I get it if you lift stuff.
Totally get it. You know, there's some manufacturing jobs that are really tough on people.
Don't get me wrong. That's a different life. But when I hear coaches and broadcasters and politicians,
I mean, there's a reason the people running for president are in their late 70s because you don't
lift anything. How about new rule? If you don't lift stuff,
Work as long as you can.
But Andy Reid, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, I'm sorry.
They don't look miserable to me.
They look engaged.
They look like they're in the game.
I know.
Some of you hate me.
Gonna have to live with it.
I'm in my 50s now.
I got 30 years of sports takes.
And you know what?
They're just going to get better and better.
So it's a weird thing happening in society.
Elon Musk is going to change Twitter and, you know, who knows what's going to happen.
I am a believer that any time you create a barrier to entry, you clean up a place.
I used to do radio remotes when I was just a radio guy and you'd let anybody come.
It was free.
And, I mean, it looked like the canteen is seen from Star Wars.
I mean, if you gave people a free keychain, it was brutal.
And it's just like, let's do remotes.
Let's have some barrier to entry here.
Come on.
So if Twitter charges $8 a month to get verified or to be verified people, you're going to clean some bots up and clean the bigotry and the bots and these people that just attack women.
It's just gross.
I think a smaller Twitter is a better Twitter.
But we do live in a funny world now that adults have become children and children are forced to become adults.
Remember all you adults out there?
I'll never watch the NFL because of Cap or Nick.
A year later, the ratings were up.
You're watching it.
Even though their hearts in the right place,
I'll never watch the Browns with Deshawn Watson.
Yeah, I think he's gross too.
But I bet if you check in in two or three years,
Browns fans will have watched the Cleveland Browns.
Your heart's in the right place with that one,
but you'll watch it.
I'm not going to join Twitter for $8.
I'm out.
I guarantee you not a single blue checkmark of note is out.
You know how long I've been hearing this?
I'm quitting this.
I won't do that.
I won't do that.
I'm never coming back.
Bye.
Bye.
See you.
Everybody was going to move to Canada or Europe because this conservative is elected
or this Republicans elected.
Bye-bye.
You don't have to announce it.
It's not an airport.
You don't have to announce.
you're leaving. You know, you don't have to, there's no, no flight you have to give us a heads up on.
Just go. And yet kids now are forced to sometimes be the adults in the family. Hey, dad, I don't think
you should go to the Capitol on January 6th. Hey, mom and dad, I think you're losing your identity
in your mind going MAGA. Like, I'm an independent. All right. So I'm a socially left-leaning,
you know, independent. I don't really care.
But, I mean, I care, but I'll go either way on this stuff.
But we are forcing kids all over America to have to engage with their parents and tell them to grow up and act like adults.
And adults are becoming children.
You give them that little phone and they're, I'm not going to do this and I'm not going to watch this.
And I'm not going to go.
Yeah, you are.
Folks, if these threats mattered, I'd have no audience.
If these threats mattered, I would have absolutely no audience.
I had a petition once at ESPN over 16,000 signatures to get rid of me.
My bosses loved it.
They said, that's the price of relevance.
You're becoming something.
People are making threats constantly in our society.
Don't buy it.
I won't do this.
I won't do this.
I'll never come back.
The fact, I always look at it this way.
If you are so viscerally connected to my show,
that you reach out to yell or scream at me.
You're a fan.
Now, some of my fans hate me, some like me, but you're a fan.
And that's all I'm trying to do.
Connect with people emotionally.
I hope I'm mostly right.
Sometimes I'm wrong.
I'm good with it.
I'm a public figure.
Take your shots.
Take your swings.
But just maybe next time you make a big threat.
I won't watch the NFL because of cap or naked.
I won't pay $8.
Go hug your kids.
They're now the adults in the family.
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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.
It's the enhanced games.
Some call it grotesque.
Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Within probably 10 days I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.
Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.
Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.
And now I'm bringing all of that excitement
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This is a place for raw,
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One week, I'll take you behind the scenes
of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,
and the next we'll talk about life,
mental health, purpose, and even music.
The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.
It's a space for honest conversations,
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and for people who are chasing something bigger.
So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.
Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
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So Joe Burrow didn't have to show up today.
We called his reps and said, listen, he played last night.
His time is going to be shrinking.
Generally, Joe plays Sunday, Sunday afternoon.
We do this on Tuesday.
But Joe Burrow and his rep said, nope, we want to talk right now.
And that's after a pretty rough Monday night football game, which I had set on the air on Fox on Monday.
That had a snake pit feel to it.
Monday night game on the road, divisional rival.
Listen, Joe, you guys had kind of turned the corner on first halves.
When did you kind of get a sense in that that you were like, oh, crap, this is, we're having protection issues?
Well, you know, the first drive, we moved it right down the field.
House Garrett ended up making a great play, tipping a ball on an RPO and it fell right in the hands of their corner.
And so after that, you know, we just weren't quite able to get our momentum back after that.
Our defense had two big turnovers we weren't able to capitalize on.
And then after that, it kind of went all downhill.
It's a match-up league.
The Jags have given the Colts problems.
It's just the way it's always been.
Chargers, to me, have always matched up well with Mahomes, Andy Reed, and the Chult.
Chiefs.
I can remember Justin Herbert's first start in the pros against Mahomes.
You're like, wow, they match up.
Could it be argued that Cleveland, because of their corners, because of Miles,
they're a tough matchup personnel-wise?
Yeah, they're really good pass rushers.
You always, I mean, they've made giant plays, big impact plays against us.
Every time we've played them and their corners are some of the best in the league.
Denzel didn't play last night.
but their guys stepped up and made big plays for them.
So you always got to give them credit,
but we also didn't play as well as we should have.
You're four and four.
You're essentially halfway through the season.
Give me something you're really happy with.
Well, apart from last night,
we've responded to all the adversity that we've gone through so far,
and that's the credit to the character of the guys in the locker room.
and this is just like all the other times.
It's not a panic mode by any means.
We were five and four going into the buy last week.
We have a chance to go out and get a win this week
and go five and four into the buy,
just like we did last year.
So we're not panicking about where we're at.
There's still a lot of football to be played.
The, you know, I was saying this morning on Fox on Tuesday,
I said, you know, it's a year-by-year league.
The Rams and the Bengals.
This is why teams,
like Philadelphia gets Robert Quinn or the Niners get McCaffrey or the Ravens get Roquan Smith is
when you're in that Super Bowl bubble and there's a great player out there, go get him.
Minnesota gets T.J. Hawkinson, a terrific tight end from Iowa.
And go back to last year at week eight for you guys.
And I think people kind of forget that the magic ride started later.
Where were you last year at this time?
We were, I mean, this time last year, we had just lost the jets on the road after a promising start of the season.
And then going into the buy, we played the same Browns team that ended up kicking our ass again last year at the same time.
So things are playing out very similarly to how they did early last year.
And so hopefully we can get a win this week into the buy and kind of ride that momentum.
Take me to the game last year where you were.
walked off the field. And Joe, you felt like, all right, we've got, because remember, now we know
you as winners. But at that time, in the history of the Bengals, where's the game you're walking
into a tunnel, home or away? And you're like, it feels different. Like we are, we have crossed a
threshold. You know, after we played the Raiders on the road last year was our first game after the
buy, you know, it was a dirty, physical, ugly game that we ended up making the plays at the end to
pull it out and then we go into Denver, I think, the week later and pull out another one just like it.
And we kind of figured out how to win those kind of games.
Right. You know, this year we haven't won those kind of games.
We haven't made those plays at the end early on to put us in that position.
So we've got some stuff to figure out, but nobody's panicking.
We're excited about the guys we have in the locker room, we're going to put in another good week of practice.
go out there and put out on a good performance on Sunday.
So you had a Peyton Manning meeting.
He talked about that.
I don't know if he was one of your idols.
Obviously, he's like, I always look at Montana, the one word I would say is cool.
He was always cool.
Manning to me, I would say academic.
Like I think Peyton made everybody have to be smarter.
Like, not that, I mean, when I was growing up, I don't remember talking
about, you know, you had to be brilliant to be a quarterback.
And like, Peyton, like, raised the bar.
Like, you have to go to the line with three plays.
That's how I view him.
How did you view Peyton Manning before you met him and Dernet?
Well, I mean, he was one of the guys that I utilized growing up.
And then since I've come into the league, you can tell he really cares about the game of football.
And he's trying to impart the wisdom that he had and has on the game to,
people like me and people across the league who are, you know, trying to do exactly what he did.
And he really cares about furthering the game and making it a better product for the fans and for us on the field.
You know, it's interesting. Aaron Rogers reportedly and Peyton Manning did not love a lot of motion behind them during a play.
They wanted to see the defense. How was it set go? So even, you know, you think to yourself, oh, all these quarter as smart as Peyton is, oh, they want all of them.
motion and all, not necessarily.
But when I think about that, for you, if somebody said, oh, Joe is really likes this and that,
like how, when you look at a defense, if you were constructing your game plan, what do you
like and what don't you?
I mean, what do you really feel comfortable with?
How much pre-snap motion do you like?
Yeah, it just depends on the defense.
Certain defenses really give you a lot of tells when you do a change of passing strength,
motion or you bring a tight end into the core or you start running back out and empty and you're
bringing back in. Certain teams have tails like that and certain teams don't. So I think it really just
depends on the defense that you're playing and the scouting report based off those motions.
Boomer Asiason said recently that when he heard you were like an all state point guard,
he's like, oh, he's going to be a great quarterback. And I think there is value in that. I really do
because not just the distribution of it,
but, I mean, you're kind of a coach.
Like, what kind of point guard were you?
I like to score points.
I was definitely a score.
You're Westbrook.
That's exactly right.
Maybe slightly less athletic.
Slightly.
But you'd bring it up looking to score.
Yeah, I would, six,
great, I would bring it up
cross half court and I'm shooting it if it's open.
Wow.
So you never played with Clay Thompson.
Did you ever have a two guard say, bro,
the way the game was built to be played,
your supposed to pass into the wings.
No, I usually was able to score some points,
so nobody said too much.
As you go halfway through a season,
when the NFL expanded the season to 17 games,
I said, it wouldn't bother me at all.
if a lot of players said,
listen, I'm going to take a second buy.
That wouldn't bother me at all.
A quarterback is a little different.
But do you find now, Joe, this is the second year with it,
do you kind of find the sensibility, the psychology to us,
even though it's only a game, but that's for alignment,
that's 58 more collisions.
Do you think, have you noticed the Bengals changing things,
players talking about that?
You're in your second year.
of this marathon, adding a game.
Yeah, you know, for me coming into the league, my rookie year was the only 16 game season,
I didn't even make it through it.
So all I know for a full season is 17 games and it's definitely a grind.
It's a long season.
And I would think if you were to add a second buy, you'd probably go to 18 games.
So you would add a game and add it by.
Right now, I think we're in a good spot, the 17th game.
you know, gives more opportunities for tiebreakers as far as record goes,
just because it's an odd number of games.
So I think I like the 17 games.
If you were to add another game, then you would think you would have to go to two buys.
Do you already know what you're going to do in your by week?
You're just going to sit and watch TV?
Yeah, that's the plan.
Just sit on the couch and not get my workouts in and just relax at home.
Do you escape from football?
Yeah, you got to get away from it for two or three days, yeah.
The season is so long.
I mean, it's a six-month season, and then if you make the Super Bowl, it ends up being seven months.
So you got to, at some point throughout that, you've got to take a break and get your mind off and come back refreshed.
It's interesting because, like in college basketball, you play 36 games, NBA, it's 82, minimum.
College football, you're now, like in LSU, it's a 13 or 14 game season.
NFL's closer. It's like 16-17. But when you made that playoff run last year, you got hit a lot.
I mean, when that season was over last year, I mean, did you feel physically and mentally
gassed, exhausted? More mentally than physically, my body is feeling good. Towards the end of the
year is the best I felt. But mentally, the season takes a toll. When you get into the playoffs and you
get down the stretch towards the end of the year, it's kind of different because every game is.
is such a must win that it's so intense.
You're not even looking forward to the next week.
It's like this is a one week season.
And so it doesn't really feel once you get down to the nitty gritty.
It doesn't feel it goes by a lot faster.
You play chess at your locker.
I'm a backgammon guy.
Nobody ever, I know how to play chess, or at least I did.
But backgammon was always my thing.
what does it do?
Where does it take you?
What does it do?
I don't know.
I like to play on game days before the game, maybe now and then.
If it's an afternoon game or night game, kind of get your mind firing a little bit.
And you're not thinking about other stuff.
You're not focusing on the anxiety of game day.
And you're getting away from it, but your mind is still firing, getting ready for the day.
So the trade deadline.
came and college has a transfer portal.
But the one thing I've said where I don't think media or fans get this.
If I was traded tomorrow to another company, I would be like, my company didn't like me.
And then if I saw I was traded for like a fifth round draft pick, I'd be like,
the hell is that mean?
I'm not better than a fifth round draft pick.
I've always thought we underappreciate the psychology players have to deal.
with being shipped. I mean, you literally take your daughter to school and, hey, we're moving to
Miami. Like on trading deadline, and I, you know, Chase Claypool, Rollquan Smith, T.J. Hawkinson,
a couple days before or a week before, Christian McCaffrey. That part of the business, you've seen
players already moved by the Bengals. Yeah. Like, could you take me there to, I think it's not
dehumanizing, but it's really humbling. And I don't think we, I don't think we, I don't think we
appreciate it. Yeah, it's definitely different from anything you've ever experienced just because
every now and then you're with a guy for, you know, half a season and then he gets moved and you don't,
there's no time to say bye or anything. He's cleaning out as lock and he's gone. You don't have
see him. So it's pretty, like you said, humbling and it's part of the business. And, you know,
guys' livelihoods are on the line.
This is how people make money and provide for their family.
And so it's always, you know, it always makes you think about it.
So Jamar Chase is out.
Thank God you don't go to the internet.
You know, people are saying, you know, without Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow,
and I'm like, oh, people, stop.
Do you think to yourself, more looks for tea, more looks,
do you kind of in your mind math it out or, or, I mean, listen,
Jamar is a once a decade.
He's a generational talent.
I can remember when he was at LSU.
I can remember going on the air saying he's a pro football player playing at LSU.
Like he's better than 99%.
Is there a situation, Joe, without Jamar last night,
not that he's a crutch, but he is so valuable to you.
You trust him so implicitly.
How much harder is it not playing with like your ally?
Yeah, whenever you have a guy like that,
to, it's going to be out.
It's going to, your offense will look different.
He's too elite of a player to think that you're just going to go out there
and offense is going to look exactly the same.
It's not.
So you have to find ways to enhance the, what your other guys do well.
And, you know, last night, we didn't make enough plays to win the game.
But T and TB are, in my opinion, pro bowl caliber receivers.
and a lot of our guys, the other three guys that play last night,
they're going to have to step up too.
They made plays in the game last night.
But overall, collectively as a unit,
we got to pick up the slack from Jamar not being out there.
Do you think Cleveland, knowing Jamar Chase, wasn't out there,
defended you, Joe Burrow differently?
It's tough to say.
They were doing a lot of similar stuff that they were doing to us last year.
So I would say maybe they change it slightly if Jamar is out there, but I think mostly they do the same.
When you going at half in a hole, what does Zach say?
There's not a lot of time to sit there and talk about it.
It's just got to come back out and do our jobs.
And we've never, for the most part, we always fight our way and claw our way back into games.
Last night we weren't able to make the players to do that.
But it's more just talking game plan and what you're going to do in the second half based off
the looks you've seen.
Yeah.
That was the first scoreless half you've had,
and I believe like 41 games.
Was it weird walking off?
And when you walked out, were you pissed?
Were you, I mean,
what was your feeling when you walked off at half?
Motivated to come out on the second half
and try to make some plays
and put us back into it.
Weren't able to do that.
We started making plays, you know,
at the end,
but it was too little too late.
Yeah.
So short week.
How does it change for you?
Yeah, everything is just going to be compressed.
You know, we have to, we're down basically two days playing on Monday night.
And so now we have to, you know, kind of condense days, third down red zone.
Maybe they're going to be the same day.
Base downs will be tomorrow, maybe a third down review, an extra one, extra walkthrough here or there.
So the short weeks are always tough, but, you know, we usually respond on these, on these situations.
We've played well in the short weeks in the past.
All right, Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, All Odds provided by Fanduel.
I had another winning week, thanks to the Cleveland Browns.
Didn't think it would be that ugly, but it was.
I have been on this belief that the NFL scoring's come down.
I'm taking more dogs than ever, and I've always preferred dogs,
but I'm taking like four out of five dogs a week.
When points come at a scarcity, I'll take them a lot.
And Chad Millman's joining us.
I'll tell you the first one that jumps out to me.
is the chargers are still banged up.
The Falcons are getting points at home.
I don't trust the chargers at all.
I don't know if they're well coached.
And I will say this.
I think there's real misgivings in that locker room with what's happening.
The play calling, continued injuries.
I don't love historically taking the Falcons,
but this looks like the play, sharp or square.
Totally sharp play right here for everything you just said.
real lack of trust from a better's point of view.
I'm not going to try to speculate what's happening in the locker room.
I don't know anyone there.
But I can tell you that from a betting point of view,
there's not a lot of faith in what the chargers are doing offensively.
They seem to have a pretty standard game plan in which the play is try to get some yardage first and second
and then have Justin Herbert try to bail them out on third down.
And what really matters here are two other things that you mentioned.
One, the coaching, two, the injuries.
Now, for the injuries, you don't know what you're going to be getting from the wide receiver
positions.
You know you're not going to have your best left tackle.
You know you're not going to have your best defensive end.
Justin Herbert hasn't been amazing in the clutch plays that he has been amazing at,
or at least made us think he was a potential Super Bowl contender in years past.
But a lot of this is about the coaching.
Betters continue to be impressed with Arthur Smith and what he is doing with the Falcons.
The run scheme they're developing.
The way they're able to plug anyone in there and they can consistently get yards on the ground and control the game.
And they like a home team getting three points.
It's a good spot for them.
I'll throw another one at you.
This is weird.
I don't even, I can't believe.
I'm saying this, commanders plus three against the Vikings.
Now, a couple weeks ago, when the Niners got Christian McCaffrey,
first of all, they spent a day trying to make the deal work,
and then they spent a lot of practice time trying to get him integrated into the offense.
Minnesota is going to do the same thing.
They're going to spend a lot of time on T.J. Hawkinson.
Those are rough weeks, right?
You're spending a little more time than you would.
There's a new player.
I'll say this about the commanders.
Taylor Heineke may not be Carson Wentz.
They play better with him.
They play better with him.
That's all I care about.
Said about Bailey Zappy.
I don't know if he's better than Mac, but sometimes I think they play better with him.
Sharper Square, I take the points and the commanders.
This is probably the sharpest bet on the board.
There's two bets that are really, really sharp right now.
Lines have moved a decent amount when we're talking about key numbers, three, four, et cetera.
This game opened to three and a half, got bet down to three.
I think there's a couple things going on here.
One, the perception is way, way off on how good the Vikings are and what the commanders have been.
And I think a lot of people are still thinking about the commanders as the Carson Wentz team, not the Taylor Heineckee team.
Tyler Heineke, we've talked about this.
QBR, same as Carson Wentz for his career.
Completion percentage, same as Carson Wentz.
And he's more mobile.
So you're getting a better playmaker who also, let's break it down by the game.
The Vikings are terrible guarding against the other team's number one receiver.
Taylor Heineke is going to the number one receiver, Terry McLaurin, more often than Carson Wentz did.
Right.
The Vikings have been incredibly lucky this year.
We do the luck rankings.
This is one of those games where the luck ranking discrepancy is so high between the Vikings and the commanders.
There's every single the past three weeks, the commanders are top 10 in expected points per play, right?
So they're measuring how many points would you expect to get on a particular play in a vacuum.
Commanders are playing exceptionally well.
Commanders on defense, 26% in pressure rate.
That's in the top five.
Kirk against pressure, 26 in the league is a passer.
So there's a lot of things that are lining up for the commanders to be the team that wise guys are backing.
This seems obvious, but I take a little pride in calling the Jets over the Packers' Weeks.
ago and I said, I just don't think Green Bay is very good. Detroit at home is pretty good. But if it's
at three and a half, a division rival, a Green Bay team, we have to be honest here. Everything is
underperforming. I take Detroit, Sharper Square. Yeah, you got to take Detroit and it is the sharp play.
It's one that wise guys are starting to hold their nose a little bit, whereas earlier in the
year, all of the wise guys loved the Lions. And the Lions, and the Lions,
were covering for them. And then there were a couple weeks where they got outplayed in New
England. They had a game against the Cowboys where they probably should have covered,
but the box score showed a different result than what actually happened sort of in the game
and what you could have expected. They were big on the Lions this past week against Miami and
ended up being a push. Yeah. Yeah, right? And it ended being a push, right? The Lions closed at four.
The game ended 3127. A lot of people were nervous about going back to back the Lions.
again, but the bookmakers are hanging the hook, right?
That half point is called a hook, three and a half.
And the fewest points the Lions have scored at home this season is 27 this past week.
They barely had DeAndre Swift playing.
Everyone expected him to play.
That's why they liked him so much, why they liked the Lions so much this past week.
The Packers, they can't even get to 27.
And the lines have been doing this against defenses that are much, much better than the Packers.
So they've got a real advantage here.
let's say it's a shootout, I think that's going to favor the lines.
And divisional home dogs, under six, the past four seasons, a sample size north of 100,
covered a 60% clip.
So precedent and what you're seeing on the field is playing to your favor.
Okay, I'm going to throw a favorite at you.
The weather in Chicago is going to be okay.
I looked it up.
Sloppy Saturday, fine Sunday.
I think we have to come to terms with Miami.
It's a pretty good football team.
Bradley Chubb will come in and,
just roughs a passer, four and a half's a lot.
But the weather is not a factor.
I think we're starting to doubt Tua a lot.
And they've given up now, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn.
Those are two of their best defensive players.
It's not as fearsome as it was defensively 10 days ago.
Now, I think Eber Luce is an excellent coach.
But those guys are really high-end players.
Those are difference makers.
I'm going to go with Miami here.
And also Chase Claypool, I think he'll be great.
I don't think he's great.
Sunday.
I'm going to take Miami a favorite here, Sharper Square.
Totally square.
This was the other game that we got the most feedback about this week on the favorites.
We'll do our shop calls segment.
The wise guys will call us after our early week podcast and then on the late week podcast.
We'll give listeners feedback on what they most talked about.
The two games they most talked about.
Washington, I mentioned that earlier, and the Bears.
And this game has moved from five and a half down to five to four and a half, even after
the Bradley Chubb trade, which you would expect, okay, the dolphins who people think is a
stronger team just got stronger.
It didn't move after the Chase Claypool trade.
It moved after the Bradley Chub trade in the direction of the Bears.
Here's what I think about what you just said regarding Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.
This defense was terrible, truly terrible.
It didn't matter if you had Rokane Smith,
didn't matter if you had Robert Quinn.
He hadn't done anything this year.
Roquant Smith was making all those tackles
because the bears have nobody else.
So he's the only guy in a position to do anything
and they still weren't very good.
What they have done now,
since they had that Thursday night meltdown
against Washington,
they have realized how to use Justin Fields.
They are putting them in more RPO's,
more design runs.
He is getting rid of the ball faster.
Now they've got,
him a weapon and chase Claypool. They're building this guy's confidence game to game. He had
his best game of the season last week against the Cowboys in a 20-point loss that really could
have been much closer. So the wise guys are starting to find some love for this Bears team.
And so they bet the Bears at plus five and a half, plus five, and it's down to four and a half.
Here's the last game I like. Ravens just lost a receiver for their game. Monday night in
New Orleans. That's one of the loudest crowds in the league. I think the Saints have really good
personnel. And I took them last week. I'm going to take them again. I think the Ravens are a team
that plays close games because there are absolute limitations down the field and now they've lost
another receiver. It's just too many points. And you know what, man, Superdome on Monday night.
Those people don't need a reason to party. They do. It is, I always believe it's like a five point
advantage. Monday night in New Orleans is not your typical three. It feels way closer to four to five.
I'm going to take the Saints sharper square.
That's a sharp play.
And look, the Reba's just got Rokon Smith.
That's not really going to matter when you're talking about the circumstances you just described,
which is the Saints at home in prime time are a different team.
And they are a different team that can pressure the quarterback without having the blitz.
They are a team that is starting to see Alvin Camara get much, much better.
And the key factor here for them is always going to,
be how does Andy Dalton avoid the mistakes? We've seen what happens when he avoids the mistakes.
We've seen what happens when he makes the mistakes. The wise guys are going to count on getting a
short home dog in a really get right spot in prime time against a team that hasn't been able to
close anybody out. So totally sharp, Colin. All right. Now we do the game that I thought about,
but I want your professional opinion. Then we do the game that I missed. So let's start with a game. I'm not going to bet,
but I want your professional opinion.
New England, I would have taken New England minus four and a half.
I do worry about their offense, but I have a history of Belichick and young quarterbacks,
and I saw it again last weekend.
He just literally undresses them.
Andy Reid off a buy, Belichick against the young quarterback.
I bet both a lot, and it's won me a lot.
But I worry about what New England has.
Tell me Sharper Square, where would I?
goal if I did bet it.
You totally bet on the Colts.
And everything you're saying about Belichick is true.
And what he did against the Jets is totally true.
But what was the final score of that game?
It was close.
It was close.
Yeah, it's close.
So do I really want to bet on the Patriots as nearly six point favorites, right?
When Shaq Leonard is probably off a snap count, this Colt defense is top.
top five, top six in the NFL and sort of all the advanced metrics, DVOA, rush success rate,
all the things that betters think about from the running side of the ball on defense,
that's what they're great at. That's the strength of the Patriots offense.
Mack Jones and this passing offense are bottom third in passing the ball downfield.
So you've got a limited Pat's offense giving a lot of points. They couldn't beat the
Jets by more than five.
And Zach Wilson is probably the worst quarterback in the NFL right now.
He is.
And Matt Jones is terrible against zone defense.
That's what the Colts do really well.
So I think the wise guys are looking at the number more than they're thinking about,
is it Sam Ellinger, is it Bill Belichick against a rookie?
They're thinking about a Patriots team that is pretty limited getting a relatively big number.
And let me give you one more stat.
Let me give you a stat.
All right.
Great stat.
underdogs this season between three and ten points.
So this game is at five and a half.
A 41 and 21 against the spread this season covering 66% of the time.
And by the way, those underdogs, 25, 36 and 1 straight up.
So if you're betting those underdogs on the money line, you're winning at your ROI is 26%.
Can I add this as America's honesty broker and a humble man?
Yes.
I appear to have been right on my Zach Wilson as Johnny Mansell with an arm take.
Go ahead, give it to me. Bring the heat.
Colin, as America's honesty broker and humble, you are genius.
And the Zach Wilson take is incredibly spot on.
And I will never understand why anybody thought this is the guy.
when everyone could say
he had an NFL offensive line at BYU
had a thousand years to throw the ball
and was playing against weakened competition.
It made no sense that all of a sudden
this was going to be the guy.
And I think you've seen it with Robert Sala, right?
He basically just decided,
this guy stinks.
I'm not banking my career on this guy.
He had a brief ball.
He was making sure Breeze Hall got the ball,
making sure his defense is going to win him some games.
And even against the Patriots
with a terrible quarterback,
they still kept it pretty close.
So you are 100% right.
The Jets already got to find a new quarterback.
Okay, the game I missed.
Can I guess?
Go ahead.
No, you don't like favorite.
I was going to say Raiders minus one and a half at Jacksonville.
Oh, God, no.
A thousand percent taking the jacks.
It's going to burn me every week, but I'm going to do it every single week.
This is a not very good a Raiders team that is planning
against a jack scene that is consistently unlucky.
And when I mean unlucky, like what are the parameters that go into being unlucky,
kind of those fluke turnover plays, those not converting.
God, they are.
They are converting.
Terrible.
It's terrible.
But there's still a team that is playing to more wins statistically than they have
in the standings.
And so I'm getting them as an underdog at home against a Raiders team.
that I just don't think is very good.
So why wouldn't I play the Jaguars?
All right.
Which game did I miss?
Seahawks at the Cardinals.
Why is the Seahawks?
I wanted to take that.
Damn, I wanted to take that game.
Okay, you may have talked me into that.
Do it.
I can't figure out why Arizona is favored here.
You have two defenses that statistically are relatively the same,
although you're starting to see the Seahawks defense the last couple weeks
trend more towards the upper team.
Getting a much better pass rush next last couple of weeks.
Yes.
They are getting much, much better.
And then you look at the offenses.
The Seahawks have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the NFL per every metric that anyone cares about.
And now their rushing game is getting so much better because of what's happening with Kenneth Walker.
So this is a very good team.
I'm not saying like they've gone from being a team everyone thought was going to be the worst in the NFC
to all of a sudden being a favorite to win the NFC.
But they're better than the Cardinals.
and that's where we're talking about the most important thing.
This is a coaching mismatch.
And not just like, okay, Pete Carroll's an underdog in his career is brilliant,
winning it more than a 60% clip.
Cliff Kingsbury, very small sample size, has won maybe half as many games as he's lost
as a favorite.
Think very specifically.
There's a metric called success rate, which basically means how well do you do in early
downs?
The cards ring 31st.
in play success rate, meaning they don't do very well in early downs, and then they depend on
Kyler Murray to bail them out. The Seahawks, third in success rate, meaning on the early
downs in a series, they are leading themselves into more successful drives and easier plays
for their quarterback. This team shouldn't be an underdog right now.
Make sure to check out the Dremont Green Show. I brought Dremont Green into the volume because
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unique perspective, understands behind the rope,
also chops up with guests like Gary Payton,
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Make sure download the Draymond Green Show
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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,
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Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
help make you funnier.
This week, my guest,
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help an a cappella band
with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends
on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
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