The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Lakers + Belichick Downturn , Mike Silver on Brady Reporting Outrage, Robert Saleh’s Colin Pushback + NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 24, 2022

This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Colin’s top takes on why the sale of the Suns shows the decline of the Lakers’ brand, and why Bill Belichick rebuilding the Patriots into a contender is no sure thing. Then, longtime NFL writer - and host of the Open Mike podcast - Mike Silver on Robert Saleh’s backchanneling pushback against Colin’s criticism, how much more time Trey Lance gets to prove himself with the Niners, Silver’s response to Tom Brady refuting his report that Brady changed some Bucs game planning independent of the coaching staff, and if the Raiders will move Derek Carr in the offseason. Then, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 16 picks are "sharp" or "square" for Commanders/Niners, Lions/Panthers, Bills/Bears, Packers/Dolphins, Raiders/Steelers, Patriots/Bengals, and Eagles/Cowboys. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action, and visit Cuts for the latest Fall fits! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer,

Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. The volume. Colin Coward Podcasts presented by Fandual Sportsbook. No better place to bet the action than on Fandual Sportsbook during the football season. There's a lot of reasons. It's America's number one sports book, incredibly easy to use, super safe, totally secure, super fast payouts, in as quick as two hours, you're not going to get that anywhere. Also, same game parlay bets, live betting.

It's the best. Hey, if you're new, just download the Fandul Sportsbook app. I did it in 15 seconds. Get started now. Sign up. Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-I-N. Fandul-Sports book app, sign up.

This is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward podcast, the holidays, meaningful football, most wonderful time of the year. A esteemed NFL insider and volume host, Mike Silver. Filled me in on some back channel pushback Jet head coach Robert Salah had about me. Also filled us in inside the Niners and a couple of fascinating topics. And the avalanche of outrage from his article about Tom Brady's game planning habits. Also, week 16, Sharper Square with the Action Network's Chad Millman. First, my top takes of the week.

So generally speaking, California teams are wealthy in the context of comparing them to other sports franchises. Stan Cronky owns the Rams. He's the first or second richest NFL owner. The Dodgers have the biggest payroll in baseball. Could be 50 million annually more than any other team. But there are exceptions. Robert Sarver was forced to sell the Phoenix Suns. Do you know who now is the poorest NBA owner? Take a second. Jeannie Bus. Lakers. The poorest NBA owner.

Now, this has been one of my concerns all along. It's gone from a global brand to a national brand to now the Lakers are just an L.A. brand. The truth is, they're not even the most popular NBA team in terms of NBA. ratings. In California, the Warriors are. The Lakers organization is friends and family. It is an incredibly insular brand now instead of creative and innovative and progressive. It's not the most popular basketball brand in the state of California. The Warriors are. In fact, I would argue it's not the most popular sports brand in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are.

The Dodgers draw 10,000 more fans per game than the second best attendance team in Major League Baseball, which I think is the Yankees. So when Stan Cronky or wealthier owners, the Dodgers, can go past a tax threshold because they just want to win, it's a huge advantage. The Lakers, they just don't have the net worth as an ownership group. And this is something I've harped on for a long time. LeBron has an international brand. His brand right now is better perceived than the Lakers brand.

Now, he left the Cavaliers. They have no brand outside of Ohio. But isn't that interesting that in Los Angeles, all things considered, the Dodger owners among the richest, the Rams owners among the richest. Steve Balmer Clippers owner Among the richest. He may be the richest. Jeannie Bus, smallest net worth among all NBA owners.

This feels like a corner store, and it was the world's biggest basketball brand 15, 20 years ago. The Celtics and the Lakers were two big brands. The Celtics have kept up their end of the deal. Still wildly popular, still move a television rating, lots of young ascending players. Go look at the Lakers last 10 years. Take out the bubble year,

which was a complete outlier for sports. Take out the bubble year. Last 10 years, what are the Lakers? A bottom five win percentage NBA franchise. There are people in Los Angeles that think I'm picking on them. I'm not. But they just literally don't know what they were doing. I was having a conversation with an NBA scout

and he was talking about to me, the Lakers roster. And he's like, Colin, there are people on that roster that we, the team he worked for, used to work for. He said, we wouldn't even give a tryout to. Would not give a tryout to. So Sean McVeigh, after another loss on Monday Night Football, it was quoted saying this year has really been, quote, humbling. Listen, this isn't college football. The better you are, the worse your draft pick.

the better you are, you in a Super Bowl, everybody wants to raise. Vaughn Miller wants more money. OBJ wants more money. Players leave. Here's all you have to know. Patrick Mahomes has never repeated as a Super Bowl champion. It's okay. It's okay.

The one thing the Rams have, Sean McVeigh is a great recruiter, and Stan Cronkey is a very wealthy owner, and Los Angeles is very wealthy owner. and Los Angeles is very attractive to free agents. That's why Lincoln Riley can pitch and turn around USC so quickly. It's a great place. If you've got the guy willing to give you the sales pitch, Lincoln, Riley, Sean McVeigh, you're going to be fine.

Now, Chip Kelly, who's a really smart coach, isn't much of a recruiter, isn't a sales pitch guy. Even he landed the nation's second best high school quarterback this week. So California, a wealthy owner, and somebody that can pitch the franchise, you're going to be fine. I mean, that's what I wonder about New England. When New England comes out and says their quarterback, Mac Jones can't throw a Hail Mary, doesn't have the arm to do it. When they throw 40% of their passes, no more than five yards down the field, the message you're sending to the National Football League, the top receivers, the top tight ends, we don't respect or trust our quarterback. And Belichick's not exactly Zieg Ziegler as a salesman.

My concern for the Patriots is that whereas the Rams and New England are struggling, the Rams have a quarterback in Matt Stafford that has proven he can win not only playoff games but road playoff games. And a coach that's willing to pitch all the high qualities of Los Angeles, of California, of the ownership, of SoFi of the roster. Belichick views that as beneath him. Players don't want to play in cold weather anyway. They'll go to New England or Buffalo if they can get paid more. But when I look at the Patriots mess,

the messaging to the rest of the league in free agents, and this is why it's important. Free agents matter to New England because they can't draft and develop skill players. They can't do it 10 years. Gronks the last offensive Pro Bowl, or they drafted and developed. So they've got to go to free agents. What's the sales pitch?

We don't love our quarterback. You'll have to take a pay cut because we won't go top of the market. It's culture and defense over offense. I never worry about USC or an Alabama when you hire a Sabin or a Brian Kelly at LSU or a Lincoln Riley or a Jim Harbaugh. Those guys can make a pitch. You tell me in New England right now, I'm a wide receiver. and they have a terrible wide receiver room.

You tell me, what is the pitch? Mack Jones? You don't trust him. Matt Patricia is your offensive coordinator? Bill Belichick culture over paycheck? Give me the coach that is willing to sell a program, college or pro. You can turn it around quickly. Belichick, that is not his vibe.

And players want to see the love. They want to be recruited. Even guys that are already, 50 million plus net worth in the NFL NBA. They want to be loved. You've got to show them the love. All right, Mike Silver, host of Open Mike on the volume, wearing the volume merch.

Haven't talked to Mike at a long time. I'm all fired up for this. And we've got to start with this. One of your interviews, I love this so much. I can't, I've got to talk about this. So one of your great interviews was Robert Sala. Very, you know, just dynamic, good looking, big energy. energy, really authentic at the mic.

Not a BS or just going to come up. So I was pretty harsh on him. And I've never known if he's going to make it or not because I do worry about defensive coach with young quarterbacks. Matt Eber flues, Justin Fields. I worry about it. I see Doug Peterson, who I was begging to get a job in Jacksonville with Trevor. And Trevor pops, like explodes. I do think we're living in a time where if you can choose, if you have to flip a coin,

take the offensive guy with a young quarterback. Be that as it may. I'm not a fan of Zach Wilson. I've said before. I don't know if Salah's going to make it. But I didn't like when he blamed the media for being instant coffee, you know, overreactionary. And impatient was Zach Wilson. My favorite part, though, is he's your guy and he reached out to you.

You don't have to read all of it. But this is funny. This is why I love doing what I do. And he said to you what? Well, he wanted me to pass along some messages to you. One is that he loves, he longtime listener, big fan, thinks you're very insightful. He said judgmental, but insightful. But yeah, he just wants you to know, I think I'll paraphrase.

He doesn't want you to believe that he's some giant meathead. He and he has some offensive background. He played offense through college. He started his coaching career on the offensive side. I will say this, Colin. So he brought Mike LaFleur with him from the 49ers. And basically Mike LaFleur and Mike McDaniel were there. Kyle was going to let him take one.

Now, normally when you have the second overall pick in a draft and you pick a quarterback, you sink or swim with that guy, right? Like if Zach Wilson turns out to pop and be good, then he and Joe Douglas will be great. And if he doesn't, it's a tough road, right? What I'm trying to wrap my head around is that it's very possible that Kyle Shannon and John Lynch will have traded three ones, possibly talked himself, talked himself, Kyle out of the guy he wanted. That's a whole other story.

And we've had that conversation. But whatever, traded three ones and arrived at Tray Lance. It might be a bust and they might get away with it because Ron Purdy is here bawling. And if that happens, when has it ever happened that? Because that's the kind of thing that you trade three ones and miss at three. You get fired. It sets the franchise back years. They're just cruising.

Well, they have one advantage. They have so many elite players. I mean, they have two elite linebackers, two elite safeties. They could move one and regain some draft capital. Everybody's looking for pass rushers and, you know what I mean? So, you know, they could go get a bunch of, you know, they could say, listen, Hufunga's hitting it out of the park. We could move Jimmy Ward.

So they do have the ability outside of the right side of their offensive line, center right, not a lot of weaknesses with this franchise. They're even at wide receiver. Jennings is a seventh round pick. Elijah Mitchell at six. They've had so many home runs. So my takeaway on the Tray Lance thing is you have to. give it another camp in preseason.

But here's what worries me. By the time next season starts, he's played four games in three years. Mike, it's unprecedented. That's not enough games. Yeah, and juxtaposed against

the guy who they took him at 262, so let's not go pretending like they thought he was the second coming of Tom Brady, but Brock Purdy to them had played a lot of games, right? Became a starter his freshman year

at Iowa State. And that showed in trading cap as Tray Lance was struggling with accuracy and maybe struggling with the weight of the situation. And Jimmy Garapolo was off on his side field, you know, as a spectacle, just throwing, waiting to get traded, it seemed. Brock Purdy was out there

going against what's clearly the best defensive football with some swag to him. And, you know, the confidence jumped out at people. And I think that's one reason, along with how he's looked, that it's worked so well since he's come in. But he was experienced in a way that Trey Lanz wasn't. So, yeah, I wrote a column for the San Francisco Chronicle recently about what's going to happen next year. Brady had just come to town. And, you know, there are really four people I was talking about. And that was Jimmy Giroopolo, who almost certainly will get paid and go elsewhere and has the power to pick

his next spot because they can't tag him, nor would they, I don't think. Trey Lats, who will still be under the rookie deal and you have so much invested in. Brock Purdy, obviously, a cheap second year of a rookie deal, and, you know, we'll see if he levels off, but has looked apart early on. And then possibly Tom Brady, who will be a free agent if he wants to keep playing, if they are interested in him as a bridge quarterback and he's interested, you could really keep Purdy and Lance around while you have Brady.

And so I could see that. I could also see a situation where if it goes as well as it seems to be going with Purdy, where they say, look, we're keeping the two young guys. We're going to have a competition in camp, but I would be shocked if Brock Purdy doesn't win that competition. No, this is not a knock on tray.

if you look at what Kyle wants, he wanted Mac Jones accurate. He liked Kirk Cousins accurate. Matt Schaub. He liked Matt Schaub. He doesn't like guys that run out of his play. In fact, my knock on him, my only knock on Kyle Shanahan, and this may be unfair, he can become beholden to his play sheet, is that he, I mean, he is so focused, like, there are times I'm like, could you let Garapolo let it rip a little?

I want to talk about Brady because Brady refuted your report that he changed Buckingier game plans. I've known you for a long time. One of the reasons I hired you, you're unbelievably connected and you don't bullshit. So I do think Brady's fascinating because you won't take, because you're not paying pretty or really Tray Lance anything. And Tom won't take a max deal with this roster. There's just not a lot of money. Yeah. So I do.

If I said to you, let's before we get to refuting your report on Brady, I think it feels as his parents' age, 40, 60, 50, 50. I mean, where do you land on Brady and the Niners? I believe from talking to people there that he wants to come back at this point, although you never know, and I believe he's open to other situations. We'll see if Sean Payton gets a job. There was that talk last year. But, you know, I know there was a real pull for him three years ago.

And Kyle ultimately decided, you know what, I'm going to ride with Jimmy. We just got to the Super Bowl. Kyle has essentially admitted publicly that, well, you know, knowing what we know now about Brady, you know, we were crazy. And so was anyone else who didn't try to get him. But they hadn't loved his tape from 2019. You know, and now, you know, he's had a couple bad games now, including against them. But we just have this, you know, we've suspended disbelief. And we just believe he's always going to be at this level until he's 100, right?

Which is not going to happen. But, you know, there is some allure there, I think, on both sides. And, you know, first of all, the one part of my report about Brady that we haven't talked about that I know he's not refuting because we have the conversation very vividly is that he didn't shower after that game. He's back in front of family and friends. It rains. He plays a big, long game. and he gets out of his jersey slowly and puts on his Tom Brady boxers and gets dressed and seemingly boards a cross-country flight. That's crazy rock star stuff.

Like that to me, I told him, I go, I think that's probably your most legendary thing in the last five years, maybe other than the Rams come back, you know, winning a Super Bowl. So I was kind of obsessed with that. As far as the other thing, so I kind of put in late in my... like call him as a throwaway, that Brady has a meeting with the skill players on Saturdays, just him and them, no coaches. And he kind of goes over the coach's, you know, script. And, okay, you know, on this one, maybe you do this and just tweaks it some. And everybody, the skill players, though, and the coaches kind of find out on game day.

I was just, when I put it in, I was trying to illustrate just how much he has. on his plate. And I did not discuss that with him in the time we had together after the game. Partly, honestly, because I was so obsessed with the shower thing. And partly because I just hadn't regarded it as a super significant thing when I heard it. But I think what happened is when it came out, it got

taken by everyone as this incendiary thing. And I think Todd Bowles and Byron Lefich, who also refuted it, probably thought, It looks like we don't really coach and Tom is the guy running things. And Tom maybe took it as it looks like I'm going rogue. I didn't get the feeling that anybody was upset about this, that this is, you know, and imagine if Peyton Manning were still playing at a high level and he were the same age as Tom or that age. Would you let Peyton Manning be heavily involved in tweaking the plays and telling play?

Of course you would. So I didn't think, you know, the way it was portrayed to me is like, this is a good thing. We have Tom Brady. He's giving heavy input and we're all on the same page. So look, I stand by what I reported, but I do regret that I didn't get a chance to explicitly ask Tom about it. That's on me. Yeah. And by the way, I think what you said there is your takeaway was look at how much Tom has on his plate.

Right. It wasn't an indictment of the character or work. work ethic of the coaches, it was an illustration of this thing's been a little bit of a tire fire and Tom's having to take control of it. I've done that in my career where I say something or I tell a story and people take it to be harsh when I'm just trying to illuminate something. So I mean, I get it. But it's happened to be more than once. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fandulul America's number one sports book. Now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000.

That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin. Fandul has tons of betting options. I like the same game parlay. Bet a little, win a lot. Fandle's app is safe, secure, easy to use, and you get paid your winnings really fast. The no sweat first bet up to $1,000. Bucks, promo code

Colin, make every moment more this season with Fandul official sports book partner of the National Football League. 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. Permitted parishes only. Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. First online,

Real Money Wager only, refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. Seat terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1,800 next step, or text next step to 533, 42, Arizona, 1888, 7,000. 189777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat. Connecticut, 1,800, gambler, or visit Fandul.com slash RG

and Colorado, Indiana, Indiana, Indiana, stop in Louisiana, 1,800 270-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You know, so many things are interesting with the 49ers. somebody was saying them to me recently, and I apologize for anybody listening to the podcast. We were talking about this.

It may have been Jason McIntyre said this on the show. Only thing worse than making a draft mistake is doubling down on it. And what's interesting about Trey Lance is because of his lack of playing and aesthetically, he has struggled with accuracy. I know this because I was told the Niners literally went and called a quarterback coach last year in preseason, I won't give his name away, and said, all hands on deck, we got an issue here. So it was a real issue. Then we watched him play twice and we're like, oh, it is an issue.

It's a little Zach Wilson. He's missing layups. He's missing the easy stuff. And I don't think the Niners ask a ton of their quarterbacks. They really don't. It's kind of a Chris Paul. Get the ball to the shooter. Get the ball in the lane, right?

You're not asking them to be Steph Curry. and hit 32 footers off balance. Like sometimes Kansas City or the Chargers or the bills ask their quarterback to be Superman. Right. So the question with Trey is, Pertie's accurate. Trey's not.

And what if they go to camp? Yeah, there are times where Trey was accurate. It's that he wasn't consistently accurate. And when it looked bad. Fair. It looked really bad. So here's what I would say on Trey. One thing that seems to me to be the case,

and this is from talking to some people on the inside, too. That athleticism that they believed they saw, you know, when you're running circles around Montana State, that's cool, but it's not necessarily the same thing as doing it in the SEC, right? I think they thought he could get outside a little bit more than what they encounter. And he's not. Like Josh Allen could do it. Lamar, heaven knows that Justin Fields could do it, right?

There are some people who can do it. And Josh played at a lower level, Wyoming, which is still higher than North Dakota State. So people were like, why was Kyle running him inside when he got hurt? Why didn't he keep running him inside? I think he was running him inside because he couldn't get outside. And so if that's the case, that's not on trade. That's a failure in the scouting process.

I've always clung to the fact that he's very, very intelligent. And what Kyle does ask, what Kyle does ask is understand this very high concept thing we're doing and know how to get it to the right person. So that's always been exciting to me. But if you have accuracy that's not there and you don't have crazy athleticism, they were excited about the deep ball. That's kind of gone away. but, you know, not with Trey, but I mean, with Jimmy and Brock Purdy, it's less of a part of their offense than they intended.

And they drafted a guy, Danny Gray, who really hasn't been on the field. But, you know, look, your depiction of what they're doing is very accurate. And Robert Saul and I actually have had the conversation about how many elite players they have at many positions. and that allows you a lot of leeway in that situation. What I haven't seen from Purdy yet, I did see him go on the road. I did see him deal with a loud crowd in Seattle. I did see him play hurt on a short week. So all that's really uplifting.

What I need to see decks from Purdy is you're down 14 points in the fourth quarter or you need to really do something special with the ball, you know, on a deep, out or something and that the game hinges on that. Yes. And will he, you know, no quarterback's perfect. And, you know, look, Jimmy Garapolo was playing at a pretty high level. If Jimmy Garapolo got down by 14 points in the playoffs this year, had he not gotten hurt, and then through a pick, you know what would have happened.

The world would say, he's not good enough. You can only go so far with him. He can't win the big one. It's very possible that that could happen to Brock Purdy. And given where we are in the season, it's possible. that could happen in Philadelphia or in the Super Bowl or, you know, when Tom Brady beats Dallas in the playoffs and then comes back to Levi's and rips out their souls and, you know, whatever it is. Well, the greatest come from behind quarterback ever statistically is Patrick Mahomes,

and he's the best quarterback. The great quarterbacks can do two things. Score is irrelevant. Even with Aaron Rogers, top 10 quarterback ever, score is relevant. he's not as good from behind. Mahomes wins over 55% of the games he's trailed by 10 points. That's historically makes no sense. The second thing great quarterbacks do is beat great teams.

Two is a great example. Five and O against non-playoff teams dragged against three playoff teams. Now he'll go home against Green Bay and he'll win a game because they're probably won't make the playoffs. So I think with Pertie, your concerns are very real. he's playing with a lead and he's beating meh so as the when you get to the playoffs you're at Philadelphia you trail that that's I remember saying this about Baker Mayfield Baker Mayfield when he had Nick Chubb and throwing on second and four Baker Mayfield was really effective sure

trailing totally different cornerback and like it's interesting talking about the 49ers I'm really torn because I know how good they are and I see how they're rolling and get got got in gotten healthier. And I feel that vibe. And I look at the NFC and I'm thinking they should win that conference, in my opinion, not a given, but that's there. But then if you really break it down, they've beaten two teams that currently have winning records. That's the Dolphins who are eight and six and the Chargers who are eight and six, beat the Seahawks who are seven and seven twice. They've lost to one team that currently has a winning record. That's the Kansas City Chiefs. And it was not close. They got rolled. Now, McCaffrey had just gotten there. They had some health issues.

Traverius Ward wasn't right. But that was not a, if that was a Super Bowl preview, we hope it wasn't because the Chiefs were way better that day. So, you know, I want to make sure I don't get too ahead of myself on it, but I saw your tweet the other night when I was working in Seattle with Brock Purdy and the, you know, and I'm thinking, yeah, he might. Now, I think the, I think the counterpoint to that would be even if Brock Pruddy gets the Super Bowl, get ready for Hurdy versus Burrow, Hurdy versus Ellen,

Purdy versus Mahomes, Bertie versus Lamar. Like, it's probably going to be one of those like, whoa. Doesn't mean he can't win with that team. So, finally, we've taken enough of your time. I said this the other day.

It doesn't matter. You're employed by multiple people. Metal Arc Media, me, Bally, San Francisco Chronicle, you have four employers. So you could have more. And one boss who's down the hall over there. She's getting ready for Christmas. We all have that boss. Yes, yeah.

So I've always said, your value is ultimately decided on an open market. The media critics can like you or not like you. You're on the open market. And I said this about the Raiders and Derek Carr. It may be time. I think you can make a valid argument. that the Raiders can move off him because they've got some holes, and I think you can get a first and a fifth or a first and a fourth for him.

Maybe it's a second and a fourth. I don't know. But I also think Derek would have a very dynamic market. I think if you put him in New York with that defense and Breece Hall, hello. That's a playoff team. So it's interesting. You can be two things at once.

Have an excellent market, and the Raiders need to rebuild. He's not a dead cap hit. Will Levis has a big arm. Josh McDaniels, look what he did to Mac Jones year one. Look what's happened to him since he left. What do you make of Carr, the Raiders? Because I can see, Mike, them saying, we like him. But if we can get a second one and a second three,

because I think they already have two five, multiple sixes, what do you make of the Raiders situation? Yeah, that's a great point. And I'm going to see them in a couple weeks, and I'll have a stronger opinion. but, you know, I think here's why that makes sense. Number one, the owner was, the owner had the wandering guy for years on Carrey Wanner Russell Wilson.

You know, he was, he was just kind of like, hey, can we get a superstar for the move to Vegas? I think they paid enough guys around him that you could benefit from a situation where your quarterback is on a rookie deal at first, right? Because you paid Waller, you paid Redfro, you paid Devante now. Devante came there because of Derek Carr. So you've got to deal with the politics of that. But you paid Crosby, as you should.

You know, you paid Chandler Jones. Maybe you wish you hadn't. Although you do now after that one play. But yeah. So I think that's it. And I do think Derek Carr would have a big market. And by the way, Maropolo is a bridge quarterback would be on the table for Josh,

depending how he feels about him. I think this is what I would say about Derek Carr. He's very intelligent. You know, you can definitely win with him. He's not going to elevate you the way Mahomes does. Who can? But the sneaky thing about Derek Carr that people don't really talk about is his clutch performance metrics are,

and maybe I know this. more because I covered a lot of Raider games when he was in Oakland. He's got a lot of comfort behind victories. Clutch wins, fourth quarter. Like, it's not an anomaly. His numbers are very, very close to the top since he's been in the league. And I have to go look that up again. There's different ways to measure it.

But he's a guy who can take you back when you're down at the end and lead that game winning drive. So, yeah, I think he'd have a real market. you know, some new guys are going to come into the league and Jimmy's out there. But really, it's not like we have this crazy abundance of, you know, frontline quarterbacks. And he would probably be the most attractive free agent on the market other than, you know, in recent years, other than Russell who was kind of an anomaly.

That's right. And Brady, who was an anomaly, he'd probably be the guy that got the most interest. Well, this year. Kirk Cousins has seven fourth quarter wins, like come from behind. Why? Because when you get to year eight and nine, Brady talked about this years ago. He's like, I've seen every defense. Derek Carr and Kurt Cousins have trailed in a lot of games late.

Yeah. You know, situation, Mike. Cars numbers have always, it's weird. Like if you look back, even when they're not good, the teams he's on, his, a lot of his wins were come from behind in the fourth quarter. I kind of wish I had the numbers in front of me. But yeah, no, you're right. And he's in a stage where he's seen it. And he's, you know, nobody is going to ever say Derek Carr doesn't process it fast or Derek

car doesn't have a grasp of the game. And also, you know, he talking about franchise quarterbacks. Like, he's going to take it really seriously. He's not going to, he's not going to screw that. Time for Chad Millman. C-C-O Action Network. odds provided by fan duel. So it's interesting. Sometimes I'll look at the numbers. You peruse the numbers and I just see a bunch of things I don't like. There's always one game that jumps out to me.

This week I actually saw several I liked. Now at this point, I'm not getting the best number. Commanders getting a touchdown at the Niners looked very interesting to me because I thought largely they outplayed the Giants. I think they have a talented roster. I can see the 49ers looking ahead. I also think you're going to get a little pushback or a little pullback on Purdy. There's now multiple games on Brock Purdy.

There's limitations. Ron Revere has been in this league as a defensive guy for a long time. My gut feeling is it's a little ugly, low scoring. I'd rather get seven and a half. I'll take seven sharper square. Oh, my God. You are coming in high.

The holiday season has you prepped to be very, very sharp. And personally, I feel like this is a gift to me. I feel like all of the teachings are coming back to me tenfold right now. Totally sharp. The wise guys love this game. You mentioned a lot to break down here. And it's worth sort of spending the time on it because it's a really interesting game because it features a commander's team that a lot of people feel like they

saw get beat in prime time against a Brock Purdy-led Niners team that is the hottest team in the NFL with a quarterback who people are now making all the regular comparisons you make when you've got a guy who comes out of nowhere to do something great. That commander's team should have won that game the other night. They outplayed the Giants. We do this thing at Action Network called the Luck rankings. And it categorized, it takes a lot of different sort of factors. from the game, puts them all into one bucket, it basically says these teams outperformed expectations, these teams underperformed expectations based on the plays that defy expectations. Red zone failures, random turnovers, penalty calls, right?

The Giants and the commanders had all of those at opposite ends. The commanders, if you play the game out according to the stats, should have won that game. Meanwhile, they're going on the road. They're playing the hottest team in the NFL. The inflation in this game is massive, right? And Kyle Shannon in this spot tends to play more conservative. He's terrible as a huge favorite. His decision-making changes.

And you know who Brock Purdy could be? Taylor Heineke, meaning he came in. He's a baller. He makes the right decisions. And then all of a sudden you get film on the guy and you're like, should we go back to Carson Wentz? Do we wish we had Jimmy G? So yeah, there is a lot of sentiment that loves the commanders.

And one more thing to think about strictly from a bookmaker point of view, they are begging you to bet the commanders. When you have low totals like this and the total is about 38 in this game, the bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game. That's what they're telling you. Low scoring games with pretty big numbers in terms of the spread tend to play to the underdog. The bookmakers are giving you a couple of points here because they want. they want you to bet on the commanders because all the tickets, all the squares, they're coming in on the Niners.

Great call, Colin, great call. I wish the number was three, similarly to the commanders. The number's not ideal. But I think it's pullback time for the Lions. The Panthers defensive front is pretty interesting. Darnold's always been better when he's pretty comfortable. Sam on the road, Sam and Badweather, get out of here. But this feels low scoring.

You're getting to the point with the Lions now that the casuals, that the squares are jumping in on the Lions. To this point, they're a better story than a team. Carolina is a way better team than a story. I'm going to take the home team plus two and a half, sharper square. Oh my God, Colin. It's like you're in my head. you've been in my notes that I've been sort of collecting all day. The first thing you said is the

most important thing. You like it better at three. If you can find this number at three, what I would recommend to people is you wait because as you noted, the public is coming in hard on the lions. Very possible come Sunday, this line gets back up to three. But the wise guys do like the Panthers here. The Panthers since Sam Darnold has been playing have just been a better, more consistent, more predictable team. They're sixth against the pass in DVOA since week 10. Their sack rate over the past six weeks has improved. You've got Jared Goff who struggles against pressure, struggles away from home when he's

outside. You look at that Jets game, it's another one similar to the commander's game. The Jets should have won that game. And if not for that fourth and inches passed to a backup tight end who scores a touchdown from 55 yards away. the Lions struggle to score six points on offense. So you're completely on the right side here. See if you want to get, see if you can get the three on Sunday or Saturday, Amy.

Okay, I like the Bears last week. I like them again, plus eight and a half with the bills. Bills come off a highly emotional divisional game. It could be minus 15 degrees in Chicago. I think the Bears can match up in the trenches where the Bills O line outside of center, is not great. And their defensive lineman, Ed Oliver, pushed around against Miami.

They ran for almost 190 yards. Bills probably win. I think the Bears are playing hard. A lot of young players, stuff's being put on film. New GM, new coach. They're still being graded. I would take the Bears plus

eight and a half on an ugly game, sharper square. Totally sharp. This game opened at nine and a half. It got bet down to nine. Got bet down. to eight and a half. The wise guys still like it. We've talked about this, I'd say, the past three weeks, almost a month, we talked about taking the Rams as big dogs. We talked about taking, I think it was against Seattle, it was like eight and a half. We talked about taking the Broncos

as big dogs against the chiefs that covered. Last week, we talked about taking the bears as big dogs against Philly. Forget about what you're seeing on the field. All your analysis is right. This is about betting, right? And sometimes betting is not about the field. It's about the number. And we've talked about this stat.

The past six years, when you've got teams that have a really high winning percentage, playing teams that would have a really low winning percentage, the team with a low winning percentage covers about 60% of the time. And the reason is because of basic gambling math. Bookmakers set a number that is really, really high. high for the team that has been playing really, really well all season long because they know the public is going to come in and bet it no matter what. They don't care what's happening on the other side. They'll move the number a little bit. Only if the wise guys come in so hard, they feel like

they have to move the number because they see that they set it a little bit too high. It's going to cost them a little bit of cash. But the wise guys are on the bears here. I'm going to tell you a favorite it I really like. So I believe extra time with good coaches matters a lot. Bowl games, off a buy in the NFL. I think we have ourselves a borderline football genius in Mike McDaniel, who completely out-game planned and out-schemed Sean McDermott. Time of possession.

Shut down Stefan Diggs. Had 190 yards rushing. One time of possession. They outplayed the bills. Two days extra prep. Packers on Monday night. The Dolphins were 5 and O against non-playoff teams, 0 and 3 against playoff teams on the road.

They come back home for a non-playoff team. Green Bay is not beating Miami, Minnesota, and Detroit. This is a team that can't stop the run at all. I get the sharpest young coach in the game. Two are now comfortable with a disappointing season. and long pass rush. I'm taking Miami. And in fact, I never do this on Blazing 5. 30 to 17, they went by two touchdowns. I know it's square, but it's fun anyway, sharper square. All right. So I know you like to ski. I know you like to get out into the wilderness.

You're skiing over your tips on this one. Okay. I'm going 30 to 17. calling out a number. What are you doing? Why would you give more than you have to? The wise guys love the Packers, okay? This game opened to five and a half, got bet down to five, got bet down to four and a half, got bet down to four,

got bet down to three and a half. I will tell you, three and a half seems to be the floor for this game. When it gets to three and a half, the professionals come back in, immediately got bet up to four. So this is about a number situation, not what's happening on the field. The reason they like the Packers is because five and a half is a really big number for this

Miami team that has struggled of late. And we talked about this probably a month ago. We saw Miami was going to have to go on the road. They were going to have to play San Francisco. They're going to have to play Los Angeles. They're going to have to play Buffalo. And I think what a lot of wise guys feel is that those teams showed a blueprint for beating Mike McDaniels.

You're jamming the Dolphins receivers, trying not to let them get ahead of steam and get downfield. The Packers' defense is not very good, especially against the run. So what they are good at is in their defensive backfield, defending against the pass, Zaire Alexander made the Pro Bowl. That is a huge advantage for the Packers.

That's why the Wise guys start to like this team. I also feel like the Packers have not been a complete offensive team this year, and you're starting to get comfortable with Watson, Romeo Dobbs coming back. Fair. I think that they feel this is their opportunity to get to the playoffs. I think you'll get a competitive game.

I don't think it'll be a 13-point win for the Dolphins. The wise guys like the number at anything four and above. Okay, so now I always close with two things. First of all, there's a game I'm on, I can be pushed in or out of. And it's Raiders plus three at Pittsburgh, the number on Fandul, minus two and a half three.

I've said this for weeks. I think Josh McDaniel's going to get it right. I like him. There are a lot of one possession games. My knock on him is he gets conservative sometimes with a lead. But I just don't think Pittsburgh is good enough to swallow three points. You tell me where I should go. I'm interested in what you, what side you would take.

So the line has moved to two. And when I was at three, it was a pass. At two, I kind of, like the Steelers. I think their defense is really, really good. And that's been what's keeping them alive in the second half of the season. I'm a big Kenny Pickett fan. I felt like he was a complete gamer when he came in for Mitch Trubisky and got them close in games against the Jets team. Let's look at that first game. He played against that Jets team. He almost had them win that game against the that we clearly think is much better than we thought, right? So that's number one. Number two,

he had that by week and came back and was significantly better than he had been prior to the buy. So all of a sudden he's getting comfortable. He was making plays for this team just as an athlete. So now he's coming back. With this defense in this weather, an emotional weekend in Pittsburgh 50th anniversary of Immaculate Reception. Franco Harris dying this week. That is a town

that gets behind this team. I would like to be a short home favorite against the Raiders and be the Steelers this weekend. Finally, a game that may be gross,

I haven't mentioned, but you have a strong opinion at the action network on it. Not really. These are always grotesque. And by the way, I bet some of these

and I've done pretty well. It works out. How about the New England Patriots at plus three and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals? Gross. It's gross. And listen, I have loved the Bengals all season long, loved them even more. Not since Joe Burrow started to get more comfortable and sort of play out of the rust,

but really since DJ Reader came back, that team has just been consistently better. And I've been betting them often in spots where you normally wouldn't want to bet them. This week, the pads are at the lowest point you're going to get them. And the Bengals are at the highest point you're going to get them. And we talk about what the wise guys look at isn't so much the final score of a game. They look at the yards per play in a game. They look at the randomness in a game. I mentioned the luck rankings earlier, right?

The Bucks were dominating that game against the Bengals. they had four turnovers. They were up 17-0-0 in the first half. You're right. In course of the game, the Buccaneers had more yards per play, and that's a key metric. That's not gross yards, right? Gross-yards really indicates a team could be coming back. They gained 500 yards because they were passing every play, and the other team was running it and playing out the clock, right?

Yards per play is a really good indicator of which team sort of was more successful offensively. So you had that with the Bucks against the bangles. Now, Trey Henderson, he's got a broken wrist. even if he plays, he's going to be playing with the club. Sam Hubbard, also on the defensive line, is out. And the defensive line are the reasons why I've loved back in the Bengals the past few weeks. I think there's going to be a lot of wind in the game that potentially neutralizes the

Bengals passing attack. Wow, this is why you're a sharp. God, this is, how did I overlook this? This is why I'm a dullard, a dim bulb, a square. God, it's so obvious and just right over my head. it, this line moved from three and a half to three. And so I think where you got to hope for is that it goes back to three and a half because people are going to come in on the bangles.

Like this is a big pros Joe's game. So getting the hook here is really important because most wise guys have this power rated at three or less. And look, I know it feels like a half point doesn't mean anything. but to wise guys on a key number like three, it means everything. Look at the text. Look at the Chargers and Titans game last week. Like, the game landed on three.

If you had the Chargers minus two and a half, you were golden. If you had the Titans plus three and a half, you were golden. Like that, on key numbers like that, it kind of means everything. And, you know, like you pointed out for the Lions, Bengals are at the peak of the market. Peak, bro. Is it possible I could just buy my way into Brees? be in a sharp because I'm not going to be able to do it based on data and takes? You can.

It's called you buy the points every week. You just buy an extra half a point every single week and you're golden. Boy, that was a good one. For anybody listening, that was really good. That is why the favorites podcast is great. That New England take is your best of the year, honestly. Well, I can't believe everything you said. You were like a magician.

I was looking over to the left with the cards and you pulled a pigeon out of your suit. And I'm like, how the fuck can he do that? That was literally, I'm just, I'm in awe. You know a magician's good when you do it and you're like, oh, he totally got me. I can't believe I overlooked it. What? Listen, it is totally gross. Like, you see that we first talked about this on the favorites on Tuesday.

And we were having a conversation. And it all makes sense, but I was really uncomfortable with it. And then today, when we recorded the Thursday edition, we do this thing called Sharp Calls where the wise guys who were connected to will call us and react to the conversation we had. And all of them were talking about that Patriots Bengals game. Like that was the play that everybody, that game. And then Dallas and the other game we didn't talk about, which is interesting, obviously, is Dallas and Philadelphia.

Well, I would take Philadelphia. That would be the side. My concern is Greg Kosell told me on Thursday, he said, they're not going to run the same offense mostly with Gardner Minshu, and he worries about in a short week, do you just say, we're not changing our offense? We're going to kind of run what we run. Because I think Philadelphia is clearly the better team.

CoSell also said this. It was one of his gems of the year. He said when you watch film, C.D. Lam's, not a great one. Schultz is productive, not a great tight end. Gallup's not the same player. That Dallas is skill people because their Dallases are driven up in the market, but they really don't have a starting ace on the mound.

C.D. Lamb is like a great two or an average one. Dallas, by the way, Dallas is going to have to go to either San Francisco, bad, bad spot, or at Philadelphia. We all know how this is going to end, right? Now, I would take Philadelphia in the points. Is that a sharp side? It started as the sharp side. But there's been, it's like, talk about split.

When I say like there's no consensus on a game when we're talking about the Panthers, it's because it's like you take the plus three and when it's not plus three, maybe you take the plus two and a half, but you kind of wait until it gets back to plus three, but people aren't passionate about it. There's passion on the Cowboys and the Eagles right now.

And when this game was at six, people were buying the Eagles hard at plus six. You saw it get down to five and a half. And then when Jalen Hertz was officially announced he was out, wise guys all started talking about the Cowboys again. And I think part of it is they're looking at the injury reports, right? And who's practicing for the Eagles? And there's a lot of guys sitting out this week. And Gardner Minshu missed practice time because of Mike Leach's funeral. So I think that from a wise guy perspective, and maybe they're overthinking.

it, are the Eagles going to take this week off? If I think they're going to have to see the Cowboys in the playoffs like you just mentioned, do they not want to show anything special? Jalen Hertz isn't going to play. They're in pretty good position as it relates to the conference standings. Is this a game where they're not going to not show up, but this is a rest week? So I think that's why the wise guys started coming into the Cowboys. That said, I bet the Eagles are plus five and a half.

I'm not buying out of it. Meaning I'm not going to bet the Cowboys. I'm not going to hedge it in any way. So what's the number at now? I think it's back up to six. I think when sort of it became official with Minchu, it went back up to six because some wise guys started playing. They started playing the Cowboys. Let me scroll through here.

Six points I would take Philadelphia, even though I think your reasoning is right. Six is too many points for that defense. Interesting. It's now down to four and a half. So now Dallas is interesting. See, now Dallas is the side. Now it becomes interesting, Colin. And now, if it continues to move down, like, I've got it at five and a half.

The number's at four. I'd probably keep waiting. I would try to find a very thin middle if I can get it at three and a half. Like, does it continue to go down? For me, it's a wait and see. If you haven't bet it yet, take Dallas it for it. But that's where it gets interesting. The volume.

Make sure to check out the Dremont Green Show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get.

your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey,

or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

Listen to the Cliford Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast.

Guaranteed human.