The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Michigan vs. Washington In Championship, Committee Got It Right, Lamar Jackson’s MVP Season, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: January 6, 2024

Colin’s best takes of the week!   He reacts to his beloved Washington Huskies getting to the title game (2:00) and marvels at the play of Michael Penix Jr (5:00). He explains why Michigan’s “cheating scandal” had absolutely nothing to do with their success this season(6:30 and gives a heartfelt thanks to the committee for selecting the four BEST teams and not the four most “deserving” (9:15). John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” joins Colin to break down the Raven’s win over the Dolphins and Lamar Jackson’s play, and why Lamar is a much better quarterback now than during his dazzling 2019 MVP season (14:30). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the final week of the NFL regular season and the CFP championship!  26:30 - Texans vs. Colts 29:30 - Patriots vs. Jets 31:45- Bills vs. Dolphins 34:30 - Michigan vs. Washington 37:15 - Giants vs. Eagles   (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. The volume.

This week on Prime Cuts, Chad Millman Sharper Square, John Middlethoff on Lamar Jackson, playing the best football of his career and my top takes of the week. Okay, you know I'm from the Pacific Northwest, so this one feels special. My favorite team as a kid growing up was the Washington Huskies. They beat the Longhorns 37 to 31. I think I felt the entire game.

I bet a money line on draft kings today. I just kept saying Texas has better players. Texas has better players. And then over the last 24 hours, I'm like, what am I doing? Washington's receivers and quarterback are a huge mismatch edge over the secondary for the longhorns. And I like Sark. I love Kaelin DeBore as a coach. And the time. I mean, their execution until the final minute of the game was the cleanest of the four teams that played in the playoffs. And they have the fewest four and five star recruit. So this staff develops and coaches, it's butt off. By the way, when you put in four really good football teams instead of three really good teams and one that's deserving whatever that means, Florida State, this is what it looks like. that was the best day of college football, the best playoff day of college football in its history.

Because nobody got caught up on deserving. It was just four really good teams with big-time quarterbacks and big-time coaches, most important position, healthy, and ready to roll. Florida State would have dragged this entire thing down. So bigger argument is Georgia getting in, but let's not waste any time talking about that. they didn't. So 37 to 31. I think Washington will probably be a three to a four point underdog against Michigan. I'll take Washington in the points, although I'm not sure they'll win. I think the game, Michigan's got much better defensive backs than Texas and are a handful. I mean,

Washington just went through a battle with a big, strong Texas team. And here we go. One week from now, it's Michigan. So that's going to be an all-time classic. Let's start with Washington. This is how they play. So all their games look like this. It's exhausting. I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, been a Husky fan forever. This has been, I mean, in the history of college football, the team that wins the national championship looks like it in about week four or five, and they usually have six to seven blowouts. Even in the NFL, over the last decade, all but one team in the last decade. One Super Bowl champ has had fewer than six blowouts, and that's in pro football. The margins are very tight. In college football, your national championship team usually has

seven or eight blowouts. That's what, you know, like Michigan had this year. That's what Texas had. Washington doesn't blow anybody. I mean, the Apple Cup against Washington State was close. Oregon State and the rain was close. Arizona State was close. Washington plays close football games. They don't have a loaded four and five-star roster. They don't play downhill. What they do is have the ability, if they play poorly, to score quickly and score late because of Michael Penix. And let's talk about Pennix. I think he throws the best football since maybe Joe Burrow in college.

You know, it's interesting. So Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud at Oregon and Ohio State, in their last college game, their coaches let him run. Did you notice tonight, Pennix doesn't run? He was a running quarterback to some degree at Indiana, had a couple of surgeries, ACL. So they make him a pocket quarterback. But Washington's coaches had a couple of quarterback draws drawn up tonight, and they're going to let him run. They will let him run against Michigan. And it is a weapon.

So J.J. McCarthy and Michael Pennix will be moving in that game. Their final college game for Pennix, who's a more pure thrower of the football than J.J. McCarthy. again, Washington is the kind of team. They're really built for these kind of playoff games because even if Washington would have been outplayed tonight, and they weren't, they outplayed Texas. They're just built the comeback and score two touchdowns in two minutes, three minutes, four minutes. So Washington's never out of a football game because they get very good past protection. Penix was only sacked 11 times all year. That's insane for a guy that just sits in the pocket.

He's not hyper-mobile anymore. Although he's mobile, he's not hyper-mobile. J.J. McCarthy's probably more mobile. He was stacked 11 times. And the Pact 12 had the best conference it had in years. So he faced Oregon's defensive front twice. And Texas couldn't get to him. One of the things about Michigan is that, and I talked about this on FS1,

whatever makes you sleep better at night, go ahead. But the Patriots and Brady were better after SpyGate. and they were better after deflategate. Brady's numbers went up after deflate gate. The Colts were bitter because New England was dominating the series, and so they turned the Patriots in for deflategate. Brady's numbers went up once there was no extra additive air to the ball or less air in the mall. Conor's stallions, it wasn't most 1% for Michigan. They've played, if they beat Washington, and their favor to beat Washington, they will have beaten Washington. Alabama, and Ohio State in order, with no, quote, cheating.

This team is about hardball, their O-line, D-line, their lack of penalties, their NFL bodies, their upperclassmen, their discipline and intelligence. Whatever makes you sleep better at night, Spygate, Deflategate, Conor Stalions, but now we know they're not, quote, cheating. If they beat Washington, once the last time Washington lost a football game, they beat in Oregon, and Texas twice in those four games. The last time they've played Texas twice, two bowl games, beat them both. Texas, Texas who hammered Alabama, overwhelmed them in Tuscaloosa, physically pushed them around. So they're going to have beaten Washington, Ohio states, a juggernaut, and Alabama,

without the Conner Stallion's advantage. This team is about so many things. If you think it's cheating signals, there's no reason, like I said before, I'm not going to argue. certain things. Like the vaccines absolutely saved millions of lives, especially for older people. They weren't needed for kids. I'm not a fan of mandates. They saved a lot of lives. I know six or seven people that didn't get them. They were stubborn or they don't like needles. They got sick as hell. My family, me, friends, lots of a, we took the vaccines. We had COVID. Boom. Two days. Fine. Right. So I'm just not going to argue with you. You go ahead and live in your conspiracy theory. I don't care. And you can go ahead and convince yourself that, you know,

Connor Stallions is the reason they won. Yeah, I'm going to go with no. They're going to give Washington's offense problems and virtually nobody gives Washington's offense problems. And you're going to watch Monday night and go, geez, Washington's a little patient, a little pressure. Washington seems to be off. And you're going to look up and realize this has never been about an iPhone's shaky video and hand signals. This Michigan team is one great college receiver away from being an all-timer. This is a really good football team. Thank you to the committee for not bending a knee for a team that's deserving on a third quarterback. Let them play somewhere else. Let's get, what does deserving mean? Remember, there's only four playoff spots. There's five conferences plus

Notre Dame. The structure of this playoff was always, we could have six undefeated teams and four spots. Aesthetics matter. Optics matter. Always have. The very foundation of college football's playoff is four spots, five conferences plus Notre Dame. It's how you look, especially at the end of the season. And these teams looked really good. You know, Texas losing, what it told you was, the SEC team was the weakest team in it. So Michigan and Washington win and Texas thumped Alabama in Tuscaloosa. So how about that? The SEC not only is not in the championship, they had the weakest. And I do believe that. Their offense is one-dimensional with Jalen Milro. Bama, SEC had the weakest team in the playoff. Wow. What a day. What a night. And I've said this. I didn't grow up in Texas, but I've always had an affinity. for Sark and the Longhorns.

Great program. They'll be back. Their NIL, their collective is raises a lot of money. Sark's a good coach. The SEC is a different ball game. Nobody's going to go undefeated in the SEC anymore. And nobody's going undefeated in the Big Ten. I don't care how good Michigan is.

You've got to go out to Seattle, Eugene, L.A., Columbus. Nobody's going undefeated in these conferences anymore. And that's okay. You'll be able to lose now if you're a Big Ten or an SEC. team. You could lose two games and still get into the tournament if they're the right two games. You lose on the road close to an Oregon or an LSU. But I, you know, undefeated, boy, that seems highly unlikely. Highly unlikely. God, I love college. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing

human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on

the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations,

stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye They said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed correct. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Now you're finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple, podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Former NFL Scout John Middlough, who has a lot of the NFL scout, who has a lot of, the podcast, the very popular podcast at the volume three and out. Let's start with Miami, Baltimore for a lot of reasons. You know, you add an extra week into the regular season of the NFL. I was not a fan of it. I have defended Thursday night football, though I don't think a lot of veteran players are ready to go. But here we are. Teams falling apart. Miami, Chubb probably out for the playoffs, two a banged up.

Howard, the defensive back banged up. You know, here, you go to last weekend, you're feeling pretty good. You know, Baltimore's a little like San Francisco. They pound you. You come out of these games against the Niners or the Ravens, and I look at what is Miami today? They're going to be a wild card team, a real possibility of that. What to you, because I got thoughts on Dallas, just isn't close.

close to the team that I thought they should have lost to Detroit. What's Miami to you today? Well, to me, I think they're a one and done team in the playoffs, you know, assuming they lose to Buffalo, which I'm sure you, and I know I'm going to take Buffalo next week. Yes. And that's a team that's, you know, obviously trending in the right direction. You know what sucks for Miami is they were having an awesome season for them? They're not like some powerhouse franchise over the last couple decades. And now it all comes unravel. And here's the thing. What has been their downfall when they've played good teams? They did take care of business last week against Dallas, right?

After Dak let them on that drive, they drove and they won the game. But today they were manhandled. That was a difference in class. And here's the thing with not winning the division. Do you like this team on the road in Kansas City? Do you like this team on the road in Buffalo? Like, this is not even an indictment on McDaniel and to it. It's the history of the franchise.

They don't play well in weather. Like, listen, Kansas City's comfortable playing these 25, 20 games. They'll do it all day long. And say, come on into Arrowhead, you're not going to beat us. Because that's got the 3-6 written all over it, right? Or however the seating breaks down. Now, maybe, I guess, depending on how it breaks, could they, I guess if they lost next week, they wouldn't even be the five.

They'd be the six seed. So you'd be looking at going. on the road in Kansas City. And I don't think there's a soul that's going to pick them. And they would be, you know, a one and done team, which sucks because they really did make some good strides. I do think big picture, you got Fangio, you keep improving the roster. They're not going away. But like physicality is a huge part of this league. And the Niners, who were clearly one of the more physical teams got shoved around by the Ravens. Today was, did that look like Alabama playing Cal Poly or something today? You know what? John, think about this.

In the last 20 years, who has dominated the NFL? New England, cold weather team. Baltimore has been a great team, cold weather outdoor team. San Francisco. It's the Bay Area, but it's chilly. You get some in the late, near it's windy and chilly. You don't see. Think about the warm weather teams.

Brady goes down to Tampa quickly. But there is an argument that the Philadelphia's and the Baltimore's and the New England's. You know, it's, and I'm not saying warm weather dome teams can't be really, really good. But we've watched Buffalo, Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, you know, and I, and Baltimore and the AFC. And the Steelers have underperformed the last 10 years. They've still been viable. So I do think there is something.

I mean, John, there's no question. I live in California. when I go on the road a 47 degree day, I'm like, get me out of here. What is going on? When you play in Miami, it's not a criticism. It's a reality. I just don't trust them on the road in January. Well, think about two of the better organizations with Drew Brees and the Saints

and Peyton Manning and the Colts over the last couple decades were not great outdoor teams, you know, in the playoffs. Right? They had to be in a confined environment to have their best opportunity. And they had Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, right? Just because the culture. of your franchise, offensive cultures, both those two teams, right? Look at Miami. And today was less about Miami. I didn't think they were going to win. Was much more to me about Baltimore, who now checks all the boxes of a Super Bowl level team. They have a Super Bowl winning coach.

They have a quarterback who's going to win the MVP and is playing the best football of his career. I texted with a buddy who's on the staff after they kicked the Niners' ass, and he's like, I don't think people quite understand how good this defensive coordinator is. He's like a boy genius. He's pretty special. And so they have incredible coaching, great talent, nailed some draft picks. I mean, Zay Flowers looks like Tyreek Jr. The personnel department has always been top-notch. What happened last year?

Trade for Roquan Smith, leading tackler in the NFL. They have guys on that defense on their front four that aren't sexy, huge, T.J. Watt, J.J. Watt, Nick Bosa. You don't even, besides Clownie, they're not famous group, they dominate. So, and that's always kind of been their thing up front, physicality. We know they can run the ball. now Lamar's throwing like this. I think the pressure, listen, I think the two one seats is Super Bowl or bust.

Anything less than a Super Bowl championship for the Niners or the Ravens is going to feel like a letdown. Now, you would say in the AFC, just playing Kansas City who has championship medal. Buffalo, if they win with Josh Allen, they're going to be a tough out. It's still, to me, a little harder in the AFC than it will be for San Francisco. But I think Baltimore is clearly the heavy favorite right now. Yeah, you know, and I got to be honest with you, whenever I see this on the internet, and I don't mind when fans do this. Not that my standard for fans, fan is short for fanatics. So when fans want to get all fiery, I have no problem with it.

But when I see the media do this stuff, you know, if I want Baltimore, I'm really happy for Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, I had real doubts. He was skinny and ran too much. And my takeaway was, I don't know if this is going to work in the pros. if there was a secret to successful quarterbacks, then 77% of drafted quarterbacks round one through seven wouldn't fail. Like nobody knows. I mean, outside of Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence,

Joe Burrow, Elway, Marino, it's like, you don't know, but I will say this. I think one of the things I really, and I can explain it with Lamar, he was so magnificent stylistically and so unique that people just don't know what to do with players like that. I grew up with a player named George Gervin in the NBA. There's never been a player that played like him.

The guy weighed, I swear to God, he weighed 150, he was 6'7. Everything was a finger roll. He was an all-star for years. But he never got listed among the greats because nobody played like George Gervin. He was this 6-7 wiry, small school, odd game. And Alex English led the 80s in the NBA in scoring. didn't jump, angle, angle jump shooter. He didn't make the top 75 team.

He led the 80s in scoring. So when you get these players that are so unique, we don't know what to, we don't know what to do with Lamar. But we have to acknowledge this. He just keeps getting better. He's clearly coachable. And he is the soul of that team. Those, he's the opposite of Russ. His teammates love him.

I mean, they love him. He, to me, you know, for a guy now who's worth $200 million, still has a humility around him, and there's a connectivity to him clearly in the locker room that I think Jalen showed last year that you can't fake that. You either got it or you don't. It comes naturally to you. And like you said, this is why you draft on character,

work ethic, and love of football, because that's how you improve. You don't improve, you know, what happens to six months when you're not practicing in the offseason? He's gotten dramatically better. The other conversation on the internet is laughable is like, I can't believe no one went after him. It's like, the Ravens were never letting him go. Never.

It's one of those things like in the NBA with restrictive free agency. Why did no one make Austin Reeves an offer? Because the Lakers were going to match it. The Ravens weren't trading you Lamar Jackson, right? And clearly, you know, here's the other thing. Young people, situations financially impact, you know, mentally we get impacted by all sorts of things. And clearly last year threw them off the contract. This is a business, though.

And I'm sure we'll talk about Sean Payton and Russell. Like, we're talking a lot of money. So sometimes they get kind of contentious. Last year was weird. They figured it out. Everything's good. And not only this year, don't you feel just for the next several years? He's kind of come into his own a lot like Mahomes did several years ago, Josh Allen.

I mean, he's one of the best players in recent memory. I remember when Aaron Rogers was in his prime and Vegas said he was worth 11 points a game. If you look at the Ravens with Lamar, 28 a game, without him, 17. So he's worth 11 points. He is Aaron Rogers in his prime. And what I like about him, whereas Aaron's sort of a finesse player. You know, he throws it off his feet, throws it away if he doesn't like to play. Lamar has a weird physicality about him.

Like, he kind of likes to get hit. He's kind of physical. And I think players feed off it. I think he is so much better than he was when he won the MVP and kind of took the league by storm. He's so much under control. You know, for a running quarterback, he feels much more poised now when he's scrambling around because he's scrambling looking to throw. I also think he's always kind of had a knack. When I was in Philly, Michael Vick, was kind of reckless.

He didn't know how to slide. He went into a lot of contact and got Maliwap. Lamar's pretty good at like kind of hitting the ground on some runs. He's not trying to be a hero. And no one questions that. Like it's like Lamar, we've got to pick your spots. You're too valuable. And he's just come into his own with his talent.

He's going to have a lot of pressure, though, in the playoffs because it's now home games. He hasn't had much, you know, postseason success. This team's built to win big. It's a tough place to play. You know, they kind of get two weeks now. This game doesn't mean anything next week. You get the two-week rest a lot like the 49ers. And it's just, it's everyone's looking at them.

Like, if you're not in the Super Bowl, it's going to be a major, major disappointment. All right. Time for Sharper Square. Chad Millman, CCO, the Action Network, all odds provided by Dress. I'm not prone to brag, but I am on a little bit of a heater. Don't talk about it. Don't say it. You're going to turn yourself into a cooler, man.

I know. So, listen, there's only two games all year that have made me bitter and losing. I lost a doink on the Saints game because they hit the crossbar and a kick. And that Colts Raiders game, you told me to stay away. I still contend this morning. The Colts was aside. Whatever. Whatever. You know what, though? Here's the good news. Here's the good news. You and I were texting,

and I was begging you to bet the Cardinals to be my betting buddy. And you did. And it felt good, right? It felt great. But you know what's funny? I really, I, Greg Kosell comes on my show, and I told Greg today, I said, Greg, I watch him play, and I'm like, there's not three of him on the planet. I like Kyler Murray. I don't care about his video games. I watch him. I'm like, I wouldn't want to. to tackle him. He's just great. He's just like, if you were in a school yard and you're like, who's the guy that nobody can tackle? You'd be like that guy, him and Lamar. Like, I just like him.

So, all right, let's start. Let's start with this because it's a weird week. It's a bad week. You don't have starters. Who really cares? One of the things a sports gambler told me years ago, he loved betting March Madness. He goes, because everybody's in. There's no like, oh, you know, it's a long road trip like the NBA. He goes, NBA, you've got to pick your spots. March Madness, all games are true. This is the most. true week of the NFL season. Like, who cares? So I would take the Texans minus one and a half against the Colts because basically you're saying to yourself, who do you trust? Yes. I think C.J. Stroud is better than we think. And I think we all think he's good. I'm going to take the Texans.

I think C.J. Stroud, I watch him play. I love his, I love his setup. I love his arm strength. I love his accuracy. I think he's sensational. Yeah. I had no idea. His comp was Jared Goff. I didn't know he would be slightly better than Jared his first year. I thought comp is like he'll become. I'm like he's Jared golf with more of a power arm that moves better. So I like the Texans here, Sharper Square. Well, look, we discussed this exact game today. And for those who are listening for the first time on my podcast of favorites, we will do this segment where we do something

called sharp calls. And we get calls, me and my co-host, Simon Hunter, we'll get calls from professional betters throughout the week who listen to our show on Tuesday and then on Thursday,

by Thursday they've got opinions and they will call us over the 48 hours between Tuesday and Thursday and give us their opinions. This game was completely divided. So the Texans opened as one and a half point

underdogs in this game, Sunday night. I will tell you right now, it was the first game that I bet the Texans plus one and a half. The wise guys bet it too. They bet it at one, then they bet it at pick, then they bet it at Texans minus one. Now it's minus one and a half. So I agree the Texans are still the right side. I think C.J. Strav... Remember last week, I told you, I think they're going to clobber the Titans. They're a better team. 100%, right? They are a better team. Gardner Minshu plays with fire every week. He has the fourth most turnover worthy throws of anybody in the NFL behind Josh Jobs, Desmond Ritter, Daniel Jones.

Okay. Shane Steichen just keeps him out of trouble. But when Gardner Minshew has to come back or potentially is in trouble, that's when there's trouble, right? And so you're kind of betting on C.J. Stroud to be better than Gardner Minshew in a close game where every possession is going to matter. on the field, that's what you're doing.

Totally sharp. Here's why the wise guys might not be on your side, and this is why this game was split and such a good debate today, when you start betting on a team that goes from being an underdog to being a favorite, historically, the percentages work against you in terms of covering. So that's why wise guys, when it's at one and a half, Texans minus one and a half, they start to walk away and start to think about the Colts. The second game is Bill Belichick is nothing, if not a grudge holder.

He wants to win this game so much because his career, I mean, there's like multiple stories out of the Boston Herald. Belichick's out. He's told his staff. He wants to screw up their draft. He's going to walk out of here, get the Washington job. He cares so deeply about winning. You think he wants to hand them Michael Pennix or Drake May?

You want them fifth. I'm just going to say they, if you watch them the last three weeks, I mean, it gets Buffalo, you're like, oh, they're really competing. Oh, yeah. They're really competing. I'm going to take the Patriots minus two and a half at home to beat a listless Jets team. Yeah, it's totally square. You're stepping in it. Look, it's not a game that anybody wants to bet.

This all of a sudden is the corner TV game, right? because you're getting a short home favorite in which the bookmakers are saying to the squares, come on, I dare you. Take the short home favorite. Take the team that has been competitive the past few weeks at less than a field goal. That's what we want you to do. And if the bookmakers are telling you they want you to do something, then you want to do something else. So the wise guys are going to be on the Jets here. But this is not one of those games where everyone's like, oh, yeah, I got to take. There is huge edge in the Jets or the Patriots in this game.

I will tell you one other thing, and it's interesting for this week because it's applicable for every game. Home teams in division games, the past five years, 47% against the spread. That's weird. Yeah. It is. That's weird. It is.

But then you got to look, look, Colin, there's a million stats and trends that you could sort of layer onto this, right? You got to think about it. And it's not applicable in this game, but it will be in others. Like, you can't take every trend and just say, okay, I'm going to do it. Trends are the handrail on the roller coaster. If you've got an opinion, they might make you feel a little more secure. It can make you feel like you're making a better decision.

It should not be what you base your decision on. All right. A game I like Bills Miner's 3 at Miami. Now Chubb and Phillips are out. No pass rush against Josh Allen. I think the bills are a better team. I think they were looking ahead to Miami when they played New England. I thought the dolphins were awful defensively.

I think the reality has hit Miami. They now, their defense had a pass rush and not much else, and now it doesn't have a pass rush. Buffalo is a better team. Josh Allen has eaten against Miami. Like Brian Flores couldn't stop him. Mike McDon't. They just don't have the personnel. I'm going to take Buffalo to win by a lot.

touchdown minus three sharper square. Most interesting game on the board. I'll tell you right now it's square, but I will also tell you, you and I and our best friend, Simon, we're making an executive decision on this. We're going to be in the foxhole together. We like the bills in this spot.

Let me give you some interesting stats. Tyreek Hill, by the way, house burns down midweek. Look, you mentioned... You tell me that's not disruptive. Listen, you mentioned Chubb, you mentioned the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, Tyree Kill has been playing injured.

Waddle has been playing injured. I do think I am not a guy who believes that there are emotional storylines that can be hindrances because these guys are professionals. But look, Tyree Kill, there was video from practice. He did not look like it looked like he was taking this as he should, which is scary and something that can be a distraction, right? I agree with you in every respect on this game. Here's something cool. October 2nd. So on October 2nd, Buffalo was minus 140 to win the AFC East.

Miami was plus 138. On December 3rd, two months later, Buffalo plus, oh, let me get my glasses on here because I want to make sure I read it right. I didn't know you were going to ask me this question. So it just happens to be Buffalo plus $1,500 to win the AFC East. Miami minus 400. Okay? So basically for those listening, you don't know. Buffalo was such a long shot that they were not even a consideration to win the AFC East.

Miami was so much, was expected to win so easily that you had to spend so much money if you wanted to bet on them. Right now, Buffalo has the shortest odds it's had all season, minus 165, to win the AFC East. It has been a roller coaster. What's amazing is Buffalo could end up being the best team in the NFL right now. And if they don't win this game, they might not make the playoffs. Okay, now, we do a dumpster dive, but since most of the schedules dumpster diving, I want to end this week with Michigan and Washington. So I took Washington money line against Texas, and I took Michigan against Bam. I went 2 and O.

I do think Michigan matches up much better against Washington. They don't give up cheap over-the-top touchdowns. And I do worry, Kailen DeBore is a remarkable coach with extra. time. They don't have extra time. So now you've got to play back to back against a superior team. Washington heavily penalized. Michigan never penalized. The older team is Michigan. They're the better team. They have seven blowouts. Washington just keeps winning narrowly. I'm a husky. I'm bow down to Washington, but I think Michigan wins this game by a touchdown. I would swallow the four, four and a half, all odds provided by draft kings.

Harper Square. I don't have a strong opinion. I haven't gotten that much intel in the market of whether or not the wise guys are going to be on the Huskies or they're going to be on the Wolverines. I don't want to mislead you in any way with that. I don't disagree with your assessment. And look, I love this Washington team. I went to Indiana. I'm a huge fan of Michael Penix. Like the only time we've been relevant since I graduated college was when Michael Penix was playing quarterback for half of three seasons because he couldn't stay healthy. I think the guy got job, not getting the Heisman. You put someone with that record, those stats, the gauntlet of teams that he played in the SEC or the Big Ten or even the ACC, he's winning the Heisman hands down. I think he got robbed completely.

But I do agree with you. like this Michigan team, they are unafraid and they beat people up. And at the line of scrimmage, they are just so freaking physical. It is really daunting. And there is nothing like that in the Pact 12. And there is, that, that is something that Alabama was used to seeing. Like something, that combination of speed and physicality. That doesn't exist in the Pact 12.

So I do think that it'll be a quarter of, of, Washington being like, oh, even on film, we thought it was different, but it's different when you're playing it. So I can't give you a specific side, but I do like your analysis. All right, my man. You don't want to bet the Giants? You don't want to bet the Panthers? You don't want to bet the Titans? Oh, gross. I will say this. I took the Giants against the Rams. You know, I've said this before. I think Tyrod Taylor is the best backup in the league. That's my opinion. So what's the number this week?

The Giants were five, five and a half. I like the Giants. A buddy of mine, we were talking about Tyrod Taylor, and he used a great analogy. He said, Tyrod Taylor is like getting 19 at the blackjack table. You're not going to get excited about it. You got a pretty good chance at winning, but there's still a chance you can lose,

but you're comfortable with it. You feel like you've got to share. shot. I thought that was brilliant and I'm stealing it and I'm giving it to you and I want you to steal it. It is exactly who Tyrod Taylor is. So I think, look, the Giants are more competitive with him. They will want to win this game. They will blitz. The Eagles offensive line is in really struggling right now. Their play calling is struggling. A.J. Brown is struggling. There's something going on. We have seen it all year long with this locker room. So I'll be playing the Giants, and I will definitely be playing the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half.

I'm not even going to talk about that. I can't. They're unwatchable. You can talk about Arizona and Seattle? Yeah, but I love Kyler Murray. So I love watching them play. I love watching Kyler play. Love him.

I really do. Connor's great. They're running back. Kyler. I can watch them all day. Tennessee is like walking past the construction site. It's just loud, overbearing. I can't get out of it fast enough.

It's just gross, clanking. Nothing good about it. What about Minnesota Detroit? That's another one that's fascinating. I stay away. You know, again, it's what's Detroit playing for? I don't like those, I don't like these games where I wouldn't be shocked. Two series, Detroit lead seven nothing, and they sit all their starters.

They just wanted their guys to get practice. That's why you're taking Minnesota in that game. Ugh. Nick Mullins? Nick Mullins lit him up. Listen, Nick Mullins is the epitome of gambling. If Tyrae Taylor is, you know, comfortable 19, Nick Mullins is a 14. Nick Mullins is hidden on 16.

That is. Nick Mullins is hidden on 16 when the dealer is showing 20. Like, you are just going for it. Yeah, but you know what? A 16 is in Blackjack? You're embarrassed you're holding, but you know you have to. or the table disrespects you, but you literally feel like

I've lost all my testosterone. I mean, you literally, every time I have a 16, I'm like, you've got to hit a 16, but you can't because you're being judged at the table by all the smart people. And that's how Nick Mullen's plays. I think he's a 12 is what he is.

It's like you want to hit it, but not supposed to. Well, all right, fine. All right, buddy. All right, man. Talk to you later. The volume. Another podcast from something.

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I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

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