The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts- More Super Bowls In Vegas! Purdy’s Postseason Problems, Brunson The Next Star In NYC, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: February 10, 2024

Colin argues that Las Vegas a perfect host city for the Super Bowl and that the NFL should only host the game in 2 or 3 warm weather cities built to handle the big crowds (1:45) John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” joins Colin to dive into Brock Purdy’s subpar postseason play and the best way for the Chiefs to shut him down on Sunday (5:30) Jason Timpf, host of “Hoops Tonight” stops by to break down the breakout of Jalen Brunson for the Knicks and why he’s poised to become the best Knick since Patrick Ewing (17:30). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Super Bowl! 27:00 - Take the under? 29:00 - Take Chiefs +2? 49ers defense overrated 33:30 - The “Mahomes effect” on opponents 35:00 - Brock Purdy over/under 247 passing yards 43:0 - 3-leg parlays (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. This week on Prime Cuts, John Middlakov on Brock Purdy's postseason struggles. Chad Millman, Sharper Square, and my top takes of the week, Vegas should get more Super Bowls. Let's all agree on that. All right, welcome in. We're going to have Chad Milman, Sharper Square.

You know him from the CCO Action Network, All Odds provided by Draft King. So I spent when Wednesday night flew in, flew back for the volume party. And the overriding theme, now this is from just advertisers and friends, media colleagues, a couple of players, was that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in Las Vegas? For years and years, this was a big stigma. Remember years ago, Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy football league and the NFL wouldn't allow it? It was always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA warned them about Tim Donegie. They don't want a stigma around gambling. It's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States. So there's been a lot of gambling controversies. Very few have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers. So finally they put hockey in there and now football.

It's all crushing. And there's no problem with the Raiders. Players make so much money now. I worry more about collegiate players and that stuff and officials and that stuff. And even, you know, that's why I always felt the NFL should, you know, make officials full-time employees because it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not that they don't feel accountable, but, you know, it's the difference between being in a company and being a consultant. There's a different responsibility, a different level. And I think you always have to have your eye out for stuff.

We saw the college football player at LSU. You know, college kids, they're trying to make ends meet. They're stars in college. Pre-N-I-L, I always felt there was probably a player or two on every roster that was taking more than a ham sandwich than a 20. but you just don't know, and so you can't speculate in individual players or teams. But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect Phoenix, nothing against it, but you got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there, downtown Phoenix, they cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather. New Orleans is fine, although New Orleans, to spend a week in New Orleans, you kind of run out of things to do besides drink and eat.

And I think Las Vegas, I mean, you can golf. The golf is stunning. You can gamble. you can shop. I mean, if you wanted to a couple of days, go to Los Angeles, it's a 40-minute flight. So I think Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma with legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those of us that I've been talking about gambling on the air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I know gambles. I gamble. Everybody I know. And I gamble responsibly. I think 99% of people do. Do people eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly? Do they always drive responsibly?

There's always going to be people that are irresponsible. But I think Vegas works. and especially having a covered stadium. You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter. And Miami does not. It rains, but it doesn't get terribly cold. So if, you know, this idea that you have to mix it up around the country, no, you don't. We hold Marty Gras in one place, you know, rock and Eve in one place.

A lot of Hollywood awards are in one place. You don't have to. Super Bowl would be two or three places? I'd be totally okay with it. And I just think from the people I talk to, I talked to about four former players, about three current players, members of the media, advertisers, and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America.

There's great restaurants everywhere. There's multiple things to do. I remember going to a Super Bowl in Jacksonville where they literally had one hotel. And they had to bring in cruise ships, and they ended up with a Super Bowl. I never bought into this. Well, you've got to share the Super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's too cold in February.

Let's put the best players in the world under a dome in cold weather or in warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome. The weather, bad weather, always punishes the greater quarterbacks. You don't want to reduce the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady in their prime. It's December games happen, but if you can avoid it with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards. All right, John Midlakov, his podcast at the volume, is three and out. a former NFL scout. All right, let's talk about a little bit about the Super Bowl,

but I really want to dial in on Brock Purdy. So I saw a stat that was interesting. I don't think you deny this. Five of the eight playoff quarters for Brock Purdy have not been good, and they've been a favorite, and they've been at home. So Brock Pretty's rate of negatively graded dropbacks in the playoffs has been 23%. So that's bad.

That would have been the worst in the end. NFL of any quarterback with 200 plus dropbacks. He's been bad in the playoffs. He's had a couple of great late drives. Mahomes, who had a much, much lower, a very good negative dropback rate, right? Very few. It's been even better in the playoffs. It's like 6% to Purdy's 23%. And he's gone on the road twice against, you know, Green Bay's defense and Detroit's defense. I mean, one's crap, the other one's average, Buffalo's defense and the Baltimore defenses, especially Baltimore, much better than Green Bay and Detroit. So, Mal Holmes against much better defenses, on the road has almost no negative dropbacks, almost none. Purdy at home against bad defenses has an egregiously bad

negative dropback rate. So my take is, I think this Kansas City's defense is elite. Most people just don't know anybody outside of maybe Sneed and Chris Jones, but they can freaking move. If Purdy struggles, and I like the under is my favorite bet in this game, I think it's low-scoring. If Purdy struggles, I mean, really coughs it up. Could you argue, Kyle goes, he got outplayed for three quarters by love, outplayed by two and a half quarters by lousy in the Super Bowl, that Sam Darnold would go into camp battling Purdy and whoever. played better would win that job. Well, I think that is a big swing guy for him because I was texted with some people. Sam just signed a one-year contract, and the 49ers love him, but so does

Adam Peters, who's now in Washington. And, you know, maybe depending on who you draft, you bring him, you pay him a little bit more money, you kind of make him the bridge quarterback. You let that guy kind of ease into his NFL career. So that is a team to watch when it comes to Sam Donald. I do think the 49ers are very, very loyal to this guy. They really like him. Like one, thing happened when Trey Lance was pretty bad for them in his starts. The team never really gravitated toward them. And when I say the team, I mean they're star core players. That group, like, he's beloved in the locker room, Brock Purdy. And that buys you a lot of juice with this team. Trent Williams, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayyuk. I mean,

these guys are not going anywhere, and they're some of the best players in the league. The other thing is Kyle is, even in the struggles, when you can run his offense, that was the problem with Trey. He like had to change his offense and he's like my whole thing is my offense. So that's why they loved Purdy. And I'm sure you saw the story. Jed York told him that Kyle in 2022 in training camp said, hey, I think the best, this is like two weeks in the best quarterback on the roster, this guy we just drafted in the seventh round. And they're like, what? And he was, he wasn't making that up. Now, I was going to those practices. It's hard to tell because he's running with the threes. But they kept him on the roster for a reason, like the coach really liked him.

The rain situation in Green Bay, he was really bad. I do think the second half against Detroit, like, I thought their defense really let him down. The 49ers are an offensive team. When you go back to the last Super Bowl, these two teams played, the Niners were a defensive team, and the Chiefs were an unreal offensive team. Well, look at this this year. The Niners are the third scoring offense. They're very dependent on Brock playing well in scoring a lot of points because their defense

the last couple weeks. It's really been leaking oil for a while. And the Chiefs are the number two overall scoring defense. So this is actually a clash between the 49ers offense and the Chiefs defense, but their offense goes as Brock play. So when he's a little off, their defense is no longer dominant. So yeah, it's not. For them to win the Super Bowl, to me, he's got to be way better than he was

because I don't have as much faith on the defense. John Lynch was just, their defensive coordinator was saying they were embarrassed by the effort in the NFC championship game. So the defense is going through some stuff. Now, when Debo's healthy, they just have so many options. and you can run the ball with Christian McCaffrey. They throw a lot of quick screens. They just need Brock not to turn it over.

And that's the one thing. He's had a lot of turnover worthy plays. And when he was really humming throughout the season, when they were beating the shit out of Dallas and Philly, he was not doing that. So it just depends what guy you get. And this gets back to, you and I'm sure when the draft gets close

and when the draft happens, the character of these guys, the mindset of these guys, Brock's a pretty serious dude. So, like, he's gone through, like, it's been a rough little stretch for, But I think they like where he's at mentally. And I have actually more faith in him, the guy and the wiring than I do sometimes the physical attributes.

Obviously, he's a pretty good runner. But his arm, you know, can be a little hit or miss sometimes. Yeah. I always said, Dak Prescott's intangibles are an A. His tangibles are like a C plus B minus. Like he moves up. I mean, he really throws an average ball. You know, I think the other thing with Brock Purdy, if I was a Niner fan, I'd be a little concerned is Andy Reed and Spaggs two weeks.

is that pretty rain struggled, road not as good. Big games, he's been a tad tight. People also, John, they have more film. You got a lot on Brock now. Whereas with Garoppolo, we knew his limitations. That's why I think Brock pretty moving is essential. Because it doesn't matter how much film you have. If you can move, you can move.

You don't know when it's coming. But I think I do think Spaggs, and I think the chiefs have the best corners in the league, I think if they can generate a pass rush, you know, if I was facing Purdy, my takeaway would be crowd Debo, take out the bubble screens, be prepared for him. Don't let them run. Brock on play action stuff. Stop the run. Take your chances with Ayuk over the top. If he beats you, he beat you. But take away, take those bubble screens away from Debo or he's a train downhill. I don't know. I don't think San Francisco is going to just. generate a ton of offense.

You've acknowledged that San Francisco's pass rush is really, it's kind of hit and miss outside of Bosa. I think ideally Kyle Shanahan, at his core, is wired like a guy from the 80s or the 90s like his dad. He wants to run the ball. And they run the ball to do two things, establish just a physical, you know, set the tone physically and prove that we're tougher than you. And then their entire passing game is off that. all the play action stuff that leads to a lot of easy completions. It's why when they're successful running the ball with McCaffrey, their offense can look pretty easy because guys get wide open

because you're biting on the run and then guys, they have so much talent with their offensive weapons. When you can slow down the run, it throws them off a little bit. So to me, it kind of starts with Christian McCaffrey. It's why a lot of people are saying he was the MVP threat to you, because he is. He's one of the best players in the league. They said something on the AFC championship game.

It was either Nance or Romo that the chiefs led the league. league this year and batted passes at the line of scrimmage, like their defensive line. Well, what happened a couple times against the Lions? Hutchinson's like six foot seven batted a couple balls down. Do they bat four balls down? Well, if you only get 28, 30 pass attempts, or, you know, Kyle ideally would be 25, that's four wasted passes, right? Or does it happen once? Because sometimes Kyle's schemed pass is why it's going to work, either as a big first down or an explosive play. If you tip that ball, and you can with Brock, because he's a shorter player, it can throw you off.

That's a little thing to keep an eye on because they batting a lot of balls, and Brock has some balls to get batted. So do they try? I don't ever understand why Kyle doesn't move it. Now, his offense is not a drop-back passing game where they do sprint options, but I would try to get him on the move a little bit more, but they just, that's not really part of the Shanahan operation. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

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this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

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I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, we haven't talked to Jason Timp for a long time. Jason is one of those gems we found, hunting through podcast after podcast, hoops tonight host. He's done just a remarkable job for us. His growth has been exponential. So I watched the entire game, Lakers Knicks. Now, OG didn't play in Randall. But, I mean, the Lakers beat the Celtics without LeBron and AD. So Julius Randall shouldn't be the difference. I think Grimes was out. But my takeaway on the Knicks is this. First of all,

I always thought Jalen Brunson was a 1A. Maybe he's a 1. 27 a game. I love his leadership, his IQ, his toughness. I think he's the best Nick sent Ewing. It was never a huge Carmelo fan. Didn't give you anything on the second, on the defensive end. And a little bit selfish, wouldn't step back and hit threes for years.

He just got stubborn on the twos. So if Brunson's an A, I do believe you need a very strong two. I think OG and Randall are threes, good threes. And at the end of that game, if Brunson's not hitting, forget Randall. Because Randall would be slowed down by AD. He's not getting any cheap points. Adi is the best low post defender in the game. And I look at the Knicks.

And what I've seen Jason in the last three years with them is patience. And part of me is like, just go get a two. And then part of me is like, no, that's the Knicks. You've been desperate, Amari Stadamire. You always reach on people. Is there a player in the league? If not this trade deadline, next trade deadline, because I think they need a two. So address if you think the Knicks do, if Brunson's not hitting late like he wasn't against the Lakers, boy, they go dry fast.

I mean, they go drive fast. Now, Randall didn't play, but I don't think OG or Randall are elite scores per se. The patience is the perfect way to put it because they could have jumped on Donovan Mitchell. I was kind of in that for a while. It's one of those things where it's at the time of the trade, we didn't read. realize Brunson was this good. So, like, maybe internally they were like Brunson's our guy, and maybe that was some of the reasoning behind it.

But the point is, is waiting ended up being smart because then Jalen Brunson popped. And now they can kind of be more patient in terms of waiting for who that next guy is. I thought the OG and Anobie trade was genius because it didn't waste any sort of super legitimate asset in terms of their pursuit of an eventual star. I think one of the reasons why that Laker game looked the way it did is the Nix, are very much like a physically imposing team. Like they are very much like a power

beat you up for 48 minutes classic Tom Thibito type of team, right? And when you take OG and Julius out, they just become small really fast especially with Mitchell Robinson out of the lineup because he's been injured, although he might come back before the end. But I mean, this won't come as any secret to anybody who's

listened to you and me talk about this before, but we're both really high on Jalen Brunson. And I think like, I think Jalen Brunson has entered into that conversation with the best guards the league. I think he's just on that tier. We're on an extended stretch now where he, not only that, he's improving. And like, to take it even a step further, look at the playoffs last year. He straight up outplayed Donovan Mitchell head to head and won a series. And he went, to, I think he is too. I think, frankly, Jason, I think he's a better player than Donovan

Mitchell. He's not quite, I don't think he's quite, I shouldn't even say this anymore. I got to, I got to get over this. I think he's a better leader. I think he plays. I think he plays. with a very steady temperament. I know exactly what I get from Jalen Brunson. Every game I watch him. Donovan, I get stretches where he just like forgets his teammates. I think Brunson is a top. You can name it, but I think he, New York, loud, he's classic Villanova.

Toons out the noise. To Donovan Mitchell's credit, he's having the best season of his career as well. The Cavs are literally the two seats. He's having the best defensive season he's had of his career. So I want to give Donovan Mitchell some credit, but I agree with you. Jalen Brunson is a better basketball player than him. But then he also went toe to toe with Jimmy Butler. The reason why they couldn't beat the heat last year was Julius Randall was a complete non-factor in that postseason run.

Now, in his defense, he was hurt. He had hurt his ankle right before the playoffs and was pretty beat up throughout that playoff run. But to your point, the Knicks have already shown us they can make some noise with just Jalen Brunson. So you can imagine what a number two would do for them. Now, the question is who? The guy that I know that they've been waiting on is Joel Embed, but I do get somewhat concerned about with his injury history now. Like, here we are again with him, with his knee struggling to make it through a regular season.

But I think Joel Embed is a guy they've had their eyes on. I think if the Lakers just absolutely like floundered this year, like just an absolute disaster end of the season, I put like a like a 5% chance that someone like LeBron could potentially either opt out of his deal this summer and sign there on like a mid-level exception or opt in and do the James Hardin where basically you opt in and ask for a trade and then try to do that because I look at LeBron James is basically even at this phase of his career just a way better version of Julius Randall which kind of is a shoe in fit to that

position you know what I mean so like but I think I think when it comes to with to the next patience has been the name of the game Jalen Brunson has bought them the ability to be good while they wait for the right guy but at the end of the day there's no reason to jump at anything unless it is the, I wouldn't trade for a single guy unless he was better than Jalen Brunson. It literally is that simple. That's right to me. Yeah, I think Brunson's the future of the Knicks. And, you know, there's a lot of people that are, you know, you hear this. I think it was said about Jalen Brunson. He's a little guy. You don't win championships with little guys. And the NBA is getting bigger. I mean, there's a certain recent formula size in the league.

But I got to tell you, as the league gets younger, I think there's an increasing value in maturity and leadership as the league gets younger. It's why LeBron is so valuable. And I think Tatum in New York, you can get lost to that city. I mean, that should, that city eats guys up. I'm like, if you're not, I mean, I remember guys like Jeremy Scha. I mean, that's why the great, Jeremy Shockey was a great New York giant, just not ready for the city quite, right? If you go to the history of New York, go look at their stars. Jeter, Aaron Judge, Eli Manning.

What's the theme? Go home, all about the sport, grownups with the media, good background, adult, you know, relationships with family. It's funny. Jeter, close to his family, Eli Manning, Brunson's dad in the NBA, Aaron Judge. A lot of times they're small town guys. If you come to New York as a star, A-Rod, you're a big free agent. And you get all this expectation it eats you up. Jalen's the opposite.

Cast off for Dallas. All he has to do is prove stuff like Villanova. He is your classic. I mean, Eli Manning went to Ole Miss. Jeter struggled in the minor leagues. Who's Aaron Judge? He's from Fresno. New York has a prototype.

You're a little overlooked, undervalued, good background, family college. I think that's so, the league's getting so young. that these older players that can bring maturity to me, Jason, I mean, it's just, it's like, it's like I say about LeBron. It's like LeBron, it could be, you know, he's like a coach general manager star on the floor. He's thinking about who am I, who should I have relationships with, who can I elevate, who should be on the floor with me.

I mean, he's thinking through every possession and every game. To his credit, too, like he signed up for this. Like the MAPS, and I think he was New York. It was a little different in the annual value, but the core contract value that the MAVs offered him was pretty close to what the Knicks offered him. He straight up said, I want it. I want the pressure. He signed up for what New York brought to the table, and he's not just thrived in that environment. He's completely exceeded expectations.

We have a couple of big Knicks fans that helped produce hoops tonight, and I talk with them about this behind the scenes. And it's crazy how that one singular signing transformed the entire landscape. of the Knicks future. Because they got, like, think about Jalen Brown just signed a deal where in the final year he's going to make like 70 million. Okay. And Jaylen Brunson's making in the 20s and he's giving you superstar production. Like, it's crazy what that one move has done for that franchise.

Let's bring in Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, All Od is provided by Draft Kings. I actually think this is an intriguing Super Bowl. So the Niners last time here were a stacked defensive roster limitations offensively. Now they're historically gifted. A top five running back ever, CMC. Top left tackle five ever. A top 10 tight end ever. Debo is one of the top multi-usage players I can ever remember.

I mean, they win 70% of the games with him, 47% without him. And then you have Brandon Ayyuk who has really surged this year to become an elite top seven, eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great deep ball. Quarterback's not great if the weather is bad. But I think Kansas City's defense, generally great defenses, we think of them Ray Lewis. We can name the players. You know, Bosa, Buckkiss, Richard Dent.

You can name great players from great defenses, right? Kansas City are like, well, I like Chris Jones. best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers, multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners, 26 more pressures. I think this is an all-time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under 47 and a half. I think there's going to be yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of touchdowns.

What do you think? I think you've hit on all of the things that make this such an interesting game to analyze for betters. Take this game, put it in week five, make the Niners two-point favorites. No one's betting it. It'd be like, yeah, it seems about all right. I don't really see an edge. But because it's the Super Bowl, people feel like they need to figure out what side they want to be on, and they are ignoring the total. I will tell you right now, professional betters have been coming in on the under in this game

for 10 days at this point. And it's really interesting. The over up until about 48 hours ago was getting 57, 58, 59% of the tickets, meaning that's what the squares, the public are doing. And the under was getting about 60% of the money. That's professional betters. In the last 48 hours, the under is now also getting the majority of the. the tickets, and the under is getting the majority of the money. So I do think you'll see this number go down a little bit. I bet the under. I will probably end up being heavier on the under

than I will on the side. I like Kansas City Plus 2, the Mahomes Factor and Andy Reed with extra time. But I do think there's something that's fairly obvious is that in five of eight quarters in the playoffs, and I judge that against average defenses, Detroit Green Bay, at home. Brock Pretty was incredibly pedestrian. Mahomes at Buffalo, at Baltimore, minus 27 degrees. Didn't have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my brain around. Brock Pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses at home.

He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight, given the history. This defense is, you know, they allowed, 17 points a game in a league that has pivoted, in a conference with all the best quarterbacks, in a league that's pivoted to offense, and if you go look at who the chiefs faced, it was a, it was Goff, it was Trevor Lawrence, it was Jalen Hertz, it was Josh Allen, regular, and post. They never allowed over 30 points. The Niners did three times, and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Locke, like, I think the gap in defense,

You just know some of the Niner players. I don't think it's a great defense. Do you? No, and I think you're hitting the nail on the head and why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I actually bet them at plus two and a half when this opened 10 days ago. This Chief's defense,

you just mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second lowest scoring defense in the NFL just behind by fractions of a point, the Baltimore Ravens. In the playoffs, against three of the most vaunted high-powered offenses through the entire season. Two on the road, the bills, the Ravens, allowed an average of four points per game in the second half.

And I think the real key... That's incredible! It's incredible. And I think the real key to this game, and it's also why people like the under. Andy Reid, this season, has played more conservatively in the second half. He is not because, not on purpose, but the offensive. game plan has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow. I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers, at least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not the kind of guy to

go forward and forth down. You are less likely to do it when you're facing Patrick Mahomes, when you believe in your defense like I think the Niners do. I think the key to this game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators adjust in the second half. And if the Chiefs get out to a lead. How is that going to spook Kyle Shanahan? How is that going to spook Brock Purdy? We've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the game make bad decisions when they fall behind against Patrick Mahon's. He is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for that in any of the handicapping. And a lot of the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been about how do you account for recency bias with what the chiefs have been doing,

and how do you account for what the Niners have done all season long? And I think that you have to consider is recency bias something that is a better indication of how the chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his game plan and to bring in full circle, how Steve Spagnola has made adjustments in the second half of every game this season, but especially in the last six weeks of the season, I think that'll be the key. We've seen it in every playoff game this year. And by the way, we didn't see Steve Wilkes do that.

That's right. The Lions lost that game because the Lions made bad plays, not because the Niners all of a sudden were playing so much better defensively. And I think when you've got a zone heavy scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have very big, average depths of target, you're sending your stuff to get sort of dink and dined until the chiefs are scoring.

And then you're behind the homes. And Mahomes has become more comfortable with that this season. Exactly. You know, I would say Andy Reed and Steve Spagnola are the best coaching duo in the league. I do think D'Amico Ryans and Bobby Sloick for Houston are the best young coaching combination in the league. But I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been a downgrade from D'Amico Ryans. They're not as good as in the red zone.

They're pass rush. They don't generate the pass rush outside. side of Bosa. So I think what we're looking at is, and I think you hit on something. There's two whammies that work in Kansas City's favorite. Mahomes screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more aggressive game because of Mahomes. Nobody's calling wacky plays because of Brock Purdy. Maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games in the Super Bowl. He had won. Does Andy Reed get into his head? Does it get into his head? I asked Drew Brees that today. I said, you know, you go to the Super Bowl, you didn't have this litany.

I mean, the Niners have been great for 30 years, mostly. They haven't won since 94. This team has been great for six years, right? That shit gets tight, right? Like, you can say whatever you want. This is going to be a loose Kansas City team with the best head coach and D.C. duo in the league playing with confidence. An underdog, I think if it's close laid, I think all the intangible. go to Kansas City.

I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy. And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player. We're talking about people who, we're talking about a guy who is at the top of his craft potentially beyond Tom Brady. And the path he will be on,

if he wins this game, is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season. And I think he's a game wrecker, as we said, because he can think beyond that, and he will not shrink in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan, to your point about Brock Purdy, and I don't think this is necessarily specific to them,

but in this case, it will be them. Mahomes makes you do things you wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on your back, because you haven't been able to close the deal in the Super Bowl and you're going against Patrick McHolmes. Let's remember, Patrick from the Holmes lost the Super Bowl against the box because he had no healthy offensive timeline. None.

Like, all of these things, you get clarity, looking back in history. So I do think that the context of Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know that's what he's playing for, beyond this season, I think that's an X factor. So one of the, I don't do a ton of props, but Brock Purdy over under 247 passing yards. So Brandon Ayuk is sensational, but you're talking about Sneeds in an elite corner that when he guards you, the quarterback has a 65 passer rating and a 52% completion rate. You can put Sneed.

McDuffie's also excellent. So I don't think they'll beat the chiefs over the top. they could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's a fairly obvious way to map this game out. I want to see Mahomes as little as possible. A lot of Debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey, and Debo in some running sets, which we know we can do. But it felt like he did more of that pre-contract than both.

I don't have the data to support that. But the way to win this game for them is, I'm not putting it on Brock Purdy's shoulders. and we're not going to get cheap yards over the top. This is a Debo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that San Francisco, and I can't figure it out because nobody's tied to their play sheet and more than Kyle Shanahan, they've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs. Green Bay outplayed him, Detroit out played them. So it's like you're not going to get major yards early.

They're going to be fairly cautious, I would think, with Brock pretty early in the Super Bowl, right? Like they're not going explosion plays. you're not going to get cheap crap over the top because the Chief's pass rush is excellent and their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners in the game. I'm actually surprised. 247's a lot of yards

when you have Christian McCaffrey. Against the Chief's defense, Baltimore was reluctant to run. They could have. You know, Gus Edwards' first run was 15 yards. His second carry was in the second half. They could have run. So that number to me seems high.

Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over 40 and a half rushing yards. And when he ran for 15 yards on that first play, I'm like, I'm golden. Like, I'm watching in the action app. And I see like his percentage chance of covering that was like 80%. And then it was 70. And then it was 60. And then it was 50. And all of a sudden, he ran one more time the entire game.

And that, by the way, is indicative of how coaches and players change their game. plan and change their style when you're playing Patrick Mahomes. I think the Niners, I'm not trying to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion on Purdy. I would probably lean to the under. I think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge edge in Brock Purdy and his passing yardage. I think I do see Debo Samuel over his receiving yardage as a bonus because I think he's going to line up in the slot. I think that's a little bit of an advantage because you're not having to go against really good corners against the Chiefs, and you're going against smaller linebackers.

And so if they are going to find some success, that could be where it is. And I also agree with you, look, if the Niners are winning this game, they're doing it on the ground, thrashing a mediocre chief's run defense. I won't say terrible chief's run defense. It's mediocre.

It's a mediocre defense. So I think the advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Debo Samuel. What I say, you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage? I don't think so because I do think that the chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in Brock Purdy's hands than let McCaffrey beat him because he is so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props, I think, to bet. I will tell you one bet that I love that I think is underpriced right now. Christian McCaffrey first rush over three and a half yards happens 60 to 60.

55% at the time. And then the percentage increases with circumstances like we are looking at this week with the defense that isn't quite as good as what the Niners were always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a sneaky fun prop that'll be over quickly, you'll either know right away if you're going to win that one. But that's one that I like. By the way, I'm going to defend the Chiefs run defense a little, not overwhelmingly. but you don't play catch up with the chiefs like you used to.

So people simply run more against Kansas City. In previous years, the chief's defense was viewed. They don't allow many rushing yards because you're always trailing. This chief team has been trailing. So people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running and eating the clock because Mahomes is in your head. So people are much more willing to run.

against Kansas City. I don't think their run defense is bad. They're too athletic at linebacker for it to be bad. They really have good twitchy linebackers. Yeah. But this defense has the best corners an excellent pass rush. So people attack the run game more. And I think, again, I don't think it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore. But I think it's a little over discussed how poor it is based on if you knew you didn't have to get into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run. You'd want to run. run the damn clock so we'd get two less possessions. So people go into a week and say, we're going to commit to the run. Well, if you commit to the run, you run the ball more and you run the ball with more success. So I think people have gone into games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances, we got to score touchdowns, not field goals. That was forever. That's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and fourth down. You don't really have to do with this team. Run the ball. So I think the defense for

Kansas City is excellent against the pass, I think it's okay against the run. Good enough. Good enough. And I think that to bring a full circle that plays into why we like the under and the game script that we're expecting is going to be that both teams play some kind of ball control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year, right? These have not been explosive from a Niners perspective, not any, I mean a Chief's perspective, not an explosive offense. And the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more than

likely recognizing that their ability to win this game is going to be dependent on their ability to run the ball. So as long as they can be committed to that, I like our chances on the under. Do I think either side is a lock? Not really. I will say one thing you want to consider. When teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to win by a field. goal or more. So if you really like the Chiefs, another fun alternative bet to make, chiefs minus two and a half at plus 130, 135, because you're getting better odds. And if you think it's going to be a close game and the Chiefs are going to win, you might as well take the Chiefs at minus two and half, which is the limit of where you want to be. I'm sort of taking an alt line

here and getting a little bit of extra juice. Chad Millman, been great. My three-teamer is Chiefs plus two, under, and Brock, under 247 passing yards. Give me a three-teamer very quickly. I will take Chiefs Plus 2. I will take the under, and I will take Devo Samuel over 58 and a half receiving yards. I think you're right on that. You know, the earth thing with him, bubble screens. He gets cheap yards.

He turns four into nine, like three times a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff. With Trent Williams out in front of them, best linemen in football. Come on. Chad Milman, CCO Action Network. Good talking, buddy. See ya. The volume.

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