The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Next NFL Genius HC, Joe Burrow on Brady Week, Best Super Power + Week 15 NFL Best Bets
Episode Date: December 17, 2022This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Colin explains why Dolphins Coach Mike McDaniel is the next ‘genius’ NFL head coach. Then, Bengals Quarterback Joe Burrow on how h...e finally got his first career win over the Browns, if there’s any added significance to facing Tom Brady in Week 15, his thoughts on Baker Mayfield’s emergency Rams debut win, how he adjusts his play as the weather gets colder, how he and Zac Taylor’s communication has improved in their 3rd year together, if he practices unorthodox Patrick Mahomes-type throws, and which super power he would take over all the others. Then, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 15 picks are "sharp" or "square" for Rams/Packers, Cowboys/Jags, Titans/Chargers, Patriots/Raiders, Giants/Commanders, Eagles/Bears, Dolphins/Bills, and Colts/Vikings, Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action, and visit Cuts for the latest Fall fits! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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This is Prime Cuts, the best of the Colin Coward podcast. Birthday boy Joe Burrow stopped by
Beat the Browns preparing for Tom Brady.
Chad Millman Action Network, Sharper Square week 14 best bets, get smarter.
You know, something I talk about pretty regularly on the show is I think football is getting smarter.
And it doesn't really matter what business you're in.
Things change, right?
You know, I'm in the cable TV business and we have something called cord cutting.
where a lot of young people are just getting rid of their cable and they're moving to streaming or YouTube TV.
And you have to adapt constantly.
Even now among streaming companies, your Hulus, your Netflix, your Disney's, they're losing billions of dollars.
Now it's very, very hyper competitive.
And people are starting to say, my streaming bill costs more than my cable bill and I get more sports on cable.
And, you know, I look at the NFL right now.
and how do you tell if you've got a really, really great coach?
Because offense is obviously the key to this thing.
70% of coaches now, head coaches are offensive coaches,
and they're having a lot more success than defensive coaches.
How do you know if you have a great coach?
And the National Football League, my answer would be,
when they make you think for an extended period of time
that an incredibly average player is really special.
And that's why I think Mike McDaniel of Miami may be our next genius coach.
He comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree.
That it is remarkable that Tua, when he has to play trailing against San Francisco,
trailing against the Chargers with a fairly decent pass rush,
not only how ordinary he looks, he looks like a third-string quarterback.
You could argue he looks like a college quarterback not physically good enough to be in the NFL.
I mean, I've never heard of a quarterback starting a game like three for 17.
I've never heard of that from a backup.
But Mike McDaniel still has Tua, despite his last two starts, disaster.
completing 66% of his throws, 275 yards a game, 22 TDs and five picks.
I mean, we think in New York, Brian Daibble is a really good coach.
He took Josh Allen to another level from, is this guy going to make the league to an MVP level player.
But even he is limited with Daniel Jones.
after about six starts, Daniel Jones has an absolute ceiling.
When I look at the Tua story, it's really a Mike McDaniel story.
Can you imagine how good Miami would be with this coach if they had Herbert, Burrow?
I mean, last two weeks, Tua isn't an NFL quarterback.
Small, unathletic, brittle, overwhelmed.
we're very lucky. Football is giving us, I think Lincoln Riley at the college level similarly, is just smarter than almost anything we've ever seen offensively at the college level.
And where did Mike McDaniel come from? San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan. Look at what he's doing with Brock Purdy. He got Garoppolo to a Super Bowl. I like Jimmy more than most people, but he has a clear ceiling. They don't throw the ball up the sideline with Garapolo.
When you look at Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, they're going to humiliate a lot of defensive coaches going forward.
We have coaches now who are completely next level.
And a lot of this is just due to safety.
I mean, Nick Saban acknowledges now.
He can't keep people in the 20s if you have an NFL quarterback.
Saban can't.
College level can't.
But I look at this to a Mike McDaniel story.
And we have ourselves a borderline offensive genius in Miami.
This coach is really, really special.
All right, it's Joe Burrow, our weekly visit.
This is an embarrassing question.
So you finally beat the Browns.
I should know this year from Ohio.
This is embarrassing.
This is an embarrassing moment.
I've never asked you this.
Did you grow up a Browns or a Bengals fan?
I wasn't really a fan of the NFL growing up.
I was more of a college football fan.
I didn't watch.
I like Drew Breed.
I like the Saints.
But I didn't, you know, I moved around a lot when I was really little.
Yep.
And my whole life and my whole family was just college football.
Yeah.
So I was more of a cornhusker fan.
Yeah.
You know, Urban Meyer told me that one time before he took the Jags job, he said, I watch film on Sunday.
I don't even watch the NFL.
Yeah.
I warned him.
I said, I'm not sure if that's a thing.
You should make public urban before you take an NFL job.
It's kind of a complicated competitive.
competitive league.
So it was your 26th birthday.
Is that today?
It was Saturday.
Okay.
I think.
So like in season, did you even get cake?
Or is that some sort of a sugar-free zone thing?
I got a pumpkin pie.
Pumpkin comes from the earth.
It's healthy?
Yeah.
There you go.
That's what my wife says.
If the shit comes from the ground, you can eat it.
Yeah.
So this was, for whatever reason, mostly Miles Garrett,
this had been a really tough matchup, a divisional rival, Ohio.
This had just been, you had a breakthrough moment.
What was it?
Well, our defense played great the entire game.
We were able to get stops and get up the field while we figured it out on offense.
You know, the first quarter was a struggle.
But after that, we started to move the ball really well and moved the ball down the field
and hit explosive plays.
And so our defense really kept us in it until our offense started clicking.
You're going to face Brady this week.
Does it mean anything?
Just the next game.
Just the next game.
That's a Tom answer.
That is such a way.
Well, I think if you get to, you know, something I was really focused on coming into the league is if you get to like, oh, I grew up watching this guy or, you know, I really.
liked him growing up.
I think you lose your competitive advantage when you're out on the field.
And so I really tried to limit that when I was able to come into the league.
And I think it's served me well.
You think you just coming into the league, you literally had made a decision.
You're not going to be a fan, boy.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I'm a fan of people that played the game really well.
but as far as me personally,
I think I can stack myself up with just about any one of them.
So Zach Taylor, there's an article in The Athletic.
They were talking about,
Zach took some of your LSU offense and moved it to the Bengals.
I mean, we're seeing Russell Wilson's struggle, new coach, new system.
If I, you know, I don't sit there and peruse playbook.
But if I said, okay, tell me two or three things that if you could have them the rest of your career offensively, that just make it easier.
I have really good players alongside me, guys like Jamar and TB and T and Joe Mixon in the offensive line that we have.
That's what makes it the easiest on quarterbacks when you can go out there and know exactly what your guys are going to do every play.
They know they're going to play really, really hard.
And then you have some of the best guys in the league on the outside and go make plays for you.
It makes my job easy.
There was a moment last week.
I thought it was really impressive where Baker Mayfield was literally in Los Angeles 48 hours and went out and played pretty good football.
And as good as you are, you came off an injury.
The first couple of weeks, it's just not right.
It's hard.
I said on the air, it felt like a remote.
Markable achievement.
Did you see it?
And what did you make of it?
I watched the first half of it.
And then I got a little too tired and had to head to sleep.
But it's always that when somebody gets on a new team very quickly and comes into the game,
has to figure out how to operate.
And then when a backup, when a starting quarterback gets hurt in the middle of the game
and a backup has to go in and play really well, those are two very similar.
situations, I think. And whenever somebody can go on and play really well in that kind of situation,
I have a lot of admiration for that because they, you know, they're not getting the reps in practice.
And in Baker's situation, he didn't get any reps with him. He probably threw 25, 30 balls to
Rams guys when he got there and I asked to go out and play like that on national TV. I had a lot of
respect for what he did. Are national TV games different? Timeouts longer? Do you feel
Timeouts long, yeah.
You feel like you got to keep yourself warm.
There's a lot more TV timeouts.
Keep yourself engaged.
It just feels like a longer game.
So now you're getting into a time where you've played your best football.
Now we're getting into December.
Everybody has tape on you.
Not all your teammates are healthy.
Compare first year, mid-year.
December to now compare last year.
Is it starting to feel bubble up like last year's role?
Yeah, we're starting to just, you know, down the stretch last year, we just found ways to win
games.
It wasn't always pretty.
Some games we had, you know, high scoring affairs, but, you know, we just found ways
to win games.
And we're starting to do that now.
We're being able to win games a lot of different ways, whether it's with our defense and
in a running game or throwing the football, scoring a lot of points.
We're just adapting to the situation at hand very quickly on Sundays and figuring out ways to get it done.
So this sounds odd, but in the college game, Joe, you play in mostly the same weather.
You played in the South.
It was either domed or warm.
In the NFL, you can go from Tampa one week to Foxborough the next to Buffalo.
Yeah.
It is different, right?
Does it change for you?
Yeah, you have to play the game slightly differently, whether it's your operation on the sideline to keep your body warm to be able to go out and do your job or whether it's, you know, maybe trying to push a ball into a window that on a non-windy day you would try, but maybe if it's really windy day, you might not try it.
So the weather does affect both how you play and your operation throughout the week.
So you guys have been a very good second half team.
It's funny how this season works.
Early in the year, you were getting third and 11s.
You were getting behind the chains.
It was something that was driving you crazy.
You were trailing in games.
You've become a better starting team.
You're also a very good finishing team.
Obviously, if it was simple, everybody would start.
start quickly.
So I'm not sure if I've asked you this.
Do you like to come into a game and have like 12 scripted plays?
Take our listeners to this.
Do you come in and kind of know the first series, what you're going to run in order?
Yeah.
Every team has, I think it's usually, you know, 10 to 15 plays that are scripted.
And then you have your your first third and short, third and medium, third and long.
So you know kind of what's going to come up in certain situations.
You have your first red zone calls that you like.
So when you get down there, you kind of know what to expect as far as defense-wise,
play-wise, what you're going to see.
And that's where the preparation comes in.
Will you run those plays again at a later moment in the game?
Sometimes you do.
Sometimes you don't.
You know, some of them are one and done's.
and some of them are base plays that you just run all the time.
So it just depends.
Are you at a point now with Zach?
Take me to where your in-game communication is in terms of,
I want to run this play now?
You know, it kind of depends.
Some games, there's a look that I see that I think a certain play would be really good against.
And I think what is great about Zach is that he trusts.
me enough and trust what I'm seeing on the field enough to, you know, give that play a shot
or if it, if he doesn't want to call it, he, you know, explains why and in what situation
maybe he would rather have that play. And so communication between and me and our coaches is
exactly what you want as a quarterback. It just gives you a lot of trust that your, that
your coaching staff is, you know, doing all the work that they,
can and will do to put you in the best position to succeed.
I've heard it said that early a quarterback plays the game,
later he manipulates it.
Do you feel now you are more manipulating the game?
Yeah, you start off every game pretty similar.
You're trying to get a feel for, you know,
because you can watch tape, but it's really different once you're out there.
So you're trying to get a feel for guys speed,
guys drop angles, leverage, how much time you're going to have in the pocket,
and all that kind of plays into how you end up playing the game later on.
So this week, Mahomes had a ridiculous play
where it looked like he was throwing a grenade out of a foxhole.
Yeah.
And I'm like, the hell was that?
Do you think he practiced that?
Yeah, I'm sure he has at some point.
I'm sure he just didn't throw it out there.
I'm sure he practices a lot of that stuff
that you see on some days that really nobody else is doing
whether he's just like mess around and having fun
before practice
and I'm sure he tries all that stuff beforehand.
So you've done something at practice that you haven't done in a game, right?
Yeah, yeah.
I think that's how you grow as a player
is you try things out in practice.
that you think might work
and then you find out, okay, this needs a little more work
before I deploy it or I'm feeling really comfortable
in this technique to go and deploy it in this situation
on game day.
And so you practice all that stuff to whatever situation
you might be in, you can pull it out if you need it.
A couple weeks ago, you were pushed out of the pocket to your left.
I forget what game it was.
And I watched it and I thought, I wonder,
and the defender was on your hip.
And I thought, I wonder if Joe's ever considered just switching the ball to his left hand and throwing it out of bounds.
Have you?
We have practiced that before in case that situation does come up.
Wow.
Yeah.
So you never know what you might need.
I haven't needed to, but I practiced it in case I do.
So you can throw a left-handed spiral for some distance?
No.
No, I can get it out of bounds.
I'm sure if he had a hold of my right arm.
but I'm not throwing a 10 yard out or anything like that.
So you've said before you got compared to Batman last week.
You were a big superhero fan.
So my only knock is that it was mostly his gadgets.
He didn't have a huge physique.
You know, he was wealthy and he was almost like a trust fund kid with a bat signal.
It was a lot of, whereas I always felt like everybody else.
had something speed, strength.
But there was a peculiar fascination with Batman because I thought he was the funniest.
He was kind of weird and funny and I kind of liked Batman.
Of the superheroes, I've had this discussion with my son.
If you had, this is weird, but I've said if you had one superhero trait, what would it be?
Now, a lot of people say, oh, I'd be invisible.
And I tell my son, the problem is you'd hear people talk about you and they would say awful things and it would ruin your self-esteem.
And then people say, well, what if you could fly?
And I say, yeah, but if you could fly, then you'd be the boy in the neighborhood that could fly and you'd be like weird and like you couldn't go out.
That's my reasoning.
If I could give you one superhero quality, what would it be?
teleportation
Explain
Well wouldn't it
If you want to go to the grocery store
You just
Pop up in the grocery store
And grab your stuff
And then pop right back home
You want to go on a cross-country road trip
Just pop over to California real quick
And then pop right back
See my son talks about stuff like that
Do you think that's a
In your lifetime
Well you believe that will happen
No
Okay.
No.
Okay.
That'd be sick, though.
It would be sick.
I always, when people say we could live on Mars in our lifetime, my takeaway is always, I don't like heights.
Like, why would I want to go to Mars?
I don't even like being in the space needle.
I'm from Seattle.
I get sick.
I'd go up in space.
That'd be pretty cool.
You would?
Yeah.
That'd be a really cool experience.
Oh.
All right.
Finally.
So it is a weird time of the year where.
It gets really intense.
Like, I'm watching the World Cup and it's really intense.
Like, I'm watching Mack Jones scream at his coach.
And football in December is like the weather sucks.
Your teammates are hurt.
Can you get, can you extract a little joy at this time of the year?
Or is it, do you feel like, okay, this stuff is, this is do or die stuff?
Yeah, wins are still wins.
You know, those post-game locker rooms after wins.
or why you play the game and they're so incredible.
But also, I think why we're so good as a team is we know when to lock in,
but we also know when to have fun, both on the field and off.
You know, I really enjoy going to practice every day.
And we know when we need to lock in and get our work in, you know,
in team periods and group install periods and stuff like that.
But, you know, we also have a lot of fun in stretching, you know, individual, all that stuff.
And so we really make it fun to come to work every day.
Yeah.
When you fly into Tampa, say, what do you do on Saturday night?
What does the team do?
We usually watch college games in the dining room, you know, eat together.
Some guys will find a restaurant in the area in order to takeout and bring it back to the hotel.
Some guys will go to dinner.
And, you know, those are fun.
Those are fun nights.
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A win is a win.
I don't care what you're saying.
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Let's welcome in Chad Milman's CCO Action Network, all of our odds provided by a fan duel.
So it's a weird week.
I've shifted some bets.
I don't like favorites much, but I'm going to start with two because I don't like them.
Monday night football.
Everybody loves Baker Mayfield.
Packers get a little extra rest.
Minus six and a half.
It's a much better team.
Let's not kid ourselves.
The Rams aren't good.
This feels like Packers by a touchdown, sharper square.
I got to tell you, this one is really interesting.
Not a ton of activity on this game in conversation from a sharp perspective.
I think you're on the right side at less than a touchdown.
There's too much enthusiasm from the market when you are looking at a Baker-Mayfield quarterback
team.
This is not a guy who wins games, right?
We've seen that over and over again.
I think with the Packers, obviously there's a lot of trepidation here.
But like the numbers on this one, the Rams getting the majority of the tickets.
And that's why you've seen it come down a little bit.
The money's heading in the Packers direction.
So if you can get him at six and a half, I would take it.
Here's another one.
I bet against the Jaguars earlier this year off a big win.
They're a young team.
They come home.
They see the cowboys in their sights off one of their best games in a decade.
Dallas humiliated but one against Houston.
Cowboys are getting healthier.
It's one of those middle numbers, like a five.
In that case, I just think Dallas is a significantly better team.
Sharper Square, I'm taking the Cowboys.
Oh, my God.
You're living in the middle of the square.
Like, you don't even have any sort of,
Room to wiggle on this one. Trevor Lawrence, past nine weeks, past six weeks, top two quarterback
in the NFL, according to pro football focus. Ten touchdowns, zero picks. All these early season
issues he had in the red zone, throwing passes that were too flat, didn't have any touch,
not building chemistry with Doug Peterson. They've been a very good team the past few weeks.
We've seen that. We've seen them getting better. I'm not.
not phased by sort of the blowout of the Titans on the road, especially against the Cowboys
pass rush.
That is the strength of their defense, but it's also the strength of the Jags offensive line.
They are fifth in protecting Trevor Lawrence against the pass rush in the NFL.
And the other thing I'll say is that the Cowboys secondary, they are injured.
And that's one of the reasons why they struggled against the Texans.
So Trevor Lawrence, who's becoming a better quarterback, is going to have a good opportunity to light them up.
Most professional betters have this game power rated at three.
All right.
Let's go to the underdogs.
Titans getting three at the Chargers.
Tennessee off a humiliating loss.
Yes, they're banged up.
But again, let's not go crazy with the Chargers.
Their defense set the tone against Miami.
Titans have the better defense, the better coach, the better run game consistently, can stop the run.
Tennessee and the point sharper square.
Total number game, very sharp.
If this gets to two and a half, you're going to see people come in on the Chargers.
Right now, at three, majority of the money coming in on the Titans, the Chargers are not a team
that anybody wants to play when they're favorites.
They are great as an underdog because their variance plays to wide sort of disparities
and what you can expect.
and they do things that allow you as a better on an underdog Chargers team to stay in the game.
Meanwhile, as favorites, they're just not very good.
The Titans, however, as underdogs with Mike Vrable, are very good.
You've got a coaching advantage with the Titans.
You've got them in a spot that favors them.
And then with the Chargers, you kind of don't know what you're getting yet defensively.
Joey Bosa is supposed to come back.
But this has been a team that is at a hard time as a defect.
so it's very hard to bet on them as a favorite.
Patriots Raiders, I like New England comfortably.
I think although Belichick's former coaches do okay against him,
this sort of ball control offense by New England on display against Arizona,
I still think the Raiders are a team that plays really hard,
but there are some holes they can't overcome.
And Belichick, this is what he does.
If you've got holes, he'll find them.
I think it's a boring, quick game with a lot of run involved.
I'm talking 80 carries.
But if it's a pickum or close, which is where the number's at,
Raiders minus one, I take the Patriots to win here, Sharper Square.
As square as square gets.
The wise guys love the Raiders.
in this spot. The Patriots have terrible skill players on offense as it is. And now the players
that they were depending on are injured. Damian Harris, Ramandre Stevenson, Devante Parker.
We don't know what we're getting in that group. The wise guys make the Raiders two-point
favorites. So when this game opened at Raiders plus one and a half, the wise guys started
hammering it. It's why the line has moved in the direction that it has. It's a team.
that as you noted still plays hard.
They are probably getting Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller back.
Both of them practiced this week.
They can still make the playoffs.
They're in every game.
The Raiders at home basically pick a very short favorite by the time the game kicks off.
That's going to be the wise guy said.
Giants getting four and a half against the commanders.
I had Taylor Heineke on my show today, but if you look at his numbers, they're underwhelming.
This is a Washington team that has more talent than New York, four and a half is a ton of points.
Daniel Jones playing for his career.
I'm going to go with the points, Giants, division rival, Sharper Square.
Interesting game.
The Sharp side is definitely the Giants.
There's no reason the commanders should be four and a half point favorites.
They just played two weeks ago while the commanders are on the buy.
The Giants in that game, even though it was a tie game.
terribly ugly game.
The Giants were ahead by a touchdown for most of the second half, and they missed a game-winning
field goal.
So now there's automatically inflation when a team like the Giants is coming off of a blowout loss,
right?
So that's why the number drifted up to four and a half.
Nobody saw the commanders play terribly last week.
They didn't play.
Meanwhile, teams coming off a blowout, the past 20 years, so the Giants in this spot,
they're covering at a 55% clip.
This is Washington's biggest spread of the season against the team that was beating them two weeks ago.
It's the sharp side, but I will tell you, I've had a couple guys say to me, they love the commanders that are professional betters.
We talked about this on the favorites pod today.
I'm not saying you're wrong.
I'm just saying it's not always a consensus.
So be wary.
Bears plus nine, extra rest.
Philadelphia coming off a dominating win.
I always pull back.
The world likes right now.
The Eagles.
I think they're in a position.
They could rest players getting healthy.
Chicago.
Again, people playing for their jobs.
People putting stuff on tape.
Young offensive line.
I like the bears and the points here to keep it reasonably close,
Sharper Square.
Totally sharp.
And remember we talked about this two weeks ago,
the Rams, eight and a half point underdog.
against Seattle.
Last week, the Broncos,
nine-point underdogs,
the Broncos nine-point underdogs
against the Chiefs.
Same similar scenario here.
The Bears plus nine
against a high-flying Eagles team.
Huge amount of money on the Bears.
This is exactly the side
that the professionals want to be on.
A reminder.
And I said this last week,
because it's still relevant,
even more relevant.
When you get teams,
winning at a 65% clip over the course of the year playing against really bad teams like the
Bears, and that's the Delta we're talking about between the Eagles and the Bears this week.
The dogs are covered in nearly 60%. So that's what happens when you get late in the year.
You get inflation on these teams that are really good.
All right. We always close with a game I could be talked into. I think Buffalo and bad weather
could destroy the dolphins. What say you? Sharper Square. Tell me the side.
I agree with you.
The lumber has moved to seven, but there's not a ton of wise guy activity on this game
because people are waiting to see how bad the weather really is.
And I'll be honest with you, the side they're probably going to play in this game is the over in
totals, not necessarily taking the bills minus seven.
I think they like the bills because the bills when they do win, they tend to cover big.
And I think, and we talked about this a few weeks ago, if you were going to fade any team,
down the stretch, it was going to be Miami, who three weeks ago, they had come off six straight
really easy games at home or indoors, and they were heading into the end of the year where they
were going to be on the road in really tough spots, including this game. So wise guys probably
will bet the bills minus seven, but they love the over in this game because the snow tends to
play to the offensive strength.
finally a game I missed
Colts Vikings
how do we not talk about Colts Vikings
Oh God
come on
come on
this is a great
bounce back spot
for the Colts
they when they've
gotten killed this year
as they did two weeks ago
they've come back in one
Minnesota's defense
is terrible
forced two punts against the Lions. The week before, they gave up nearly 500 yards to the Jets.
The Colts are actually outgaining their opponents. Minnesota is getting outgained by its opponents
in our luck rankings that we do on Action Network.com, which basically are the best way to measure
expected regression. So a team that is playing way outside of itself and is expected to come back
down to Earth. A team playing a little bit below expectations should be playing better.
There's the biggest delta of the week in this game. Take the Colts. Every wise guy has taken the
Colts.
The volume. Make sure to check out the Dremont Green show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume
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Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite.
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Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel,
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We do some retirement home.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win.
A win is a win.
I don't care what I'm saying.
Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.
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