The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - NFL Takeaways Through 5 Weeks, Jets Problem is UPSTAIRS, Mahomes Looks Like The Michael Jordan Of Football

Episode Date: October 12, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! He begins by explaining why you can’t overreact to after 2 weeks of the NFL season (3:00), why the Seattle Seahawks need to shake things up at QB (5:45), why the Jet...s will struggle to upgrade at head coach after firing Robert Salah (9:30) and why Patrick Mahomes reminds him of Michael Jordan (14:00) Then, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to discuss the Bears and Caleb Williams showing week over week progress (22:00) and the New York Giants potentially being…good (27:30)? They, also debate whether the Denver Broncos could make the playoffs (31:30). Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 6 of the NFL plus the marquee Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Oregon. 42:45 - Jets vs Bills 45:45 - Broncos vs Chargers 47:15  - Bears vs Jags 51:15 - Packers vs Cardinals 54:15 - Commanders vs Ravens 58:00 - Bengals vs Giants 59:45 - Lions vs Cowboys 01:02:00 - Oregon vs Ohio State (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.
Starting point is 00:00:42 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:01:37 I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.
Starting point is 00:02:00 Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:02:17 Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill. on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:02:41 The volume. Football seasons here, there's only one place to go for tickets, and that is Game Time. You know I love Game Time. They have a new feature called Game Time Picks, makes getting tickets for your favorite live events easier. It filters out the fluff to show you. only incredible deals on great seats, so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. You want to go to a football game or a concert. Just click on the event. You want to attend, and game time gives you a seat preview and offers you the super deal. So I get the best bang for
Starting point is 00:03:10 my buck, and that's what I'm looking for. Game time also has the lowest price guarantee, or they'll credit you 110% of the difference. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game time, right? Download the GameTime app. Doesn't take long. Create an account. Use my code, the Redeem code, Colin, C-O-L-I-N for $20 off your first purchase. C-O-L-I-N. Terms Apply. Download game time today. What time is it? Game time. I don't think there are a lot of teams now that I look at and don't at least have a feel for them. I mean, I think one of the harder teams for me to get my arms around is the Arizona Cardinals. Yesterday, I thought they would be really tough on San Francisco when they were. But I thought they would be really tough at home against
Starting point is 00:03:58 Washington and we're not competitive. Arizona to me, and I think this is a lot of Kyler Murray's personality, boy, they can be really tough. Beat themselves inconsistent, but man, Arizona, week to week can be really tough. Buffalo has a little bit of that feel where I just, I'm not quite sure what I'm getting. A lot of it depends on who's healthy and who's not. Buffalo and Arizona, and I think Buffalo is a better team, better organization top to bottom. Those two teams, I sit and watch, and I get a feel for him by the end of the first quarter. What am I going to get? Josh Allen wasn't his day.
Starting point is 00:04:33 You could sense it. Didn't have a slot receiver. It was off. It was on the road. Got banged up later. Buffalo, I think,'s the best team. I picked them to win their division. In fact, in the AFC, right now I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Houston, and Baltimore winning their
Starting point is 00:04:50 division, so I'm right there. Atlanta is good. Denver's the surprise team, I think. We got that right. Washington, I thought would be one of the surprise teams. I have no feel for the NFC West at all. I think the Rams are injury plagued. San Francisco's peaked.
Starting point is 00:05:07 Seattle's got a good roster, but it's Gino Smith. I think Arizona week to week can be just a scintillating team. I had a chance to win at Buffalo, gave them fits early, beat San Francisco. They're one of the few teams. I can't track. I'm not sure. But I also think we talked about this. A few years ago, there was a very good quarterback class that had Jalen Hertz and Joe Burrow and Herbert and two.
Starting point is 00:05:33 They hit in a lot of guys. I think this quarterback class, Caleb and Jaden Daniels and Bo Nicks all look like they can play. Now, New England's offensive line is so bad and they're so inept offensively. Do you play Drake May? Do you not? I'm okay with either. I don't have a strong feeling. Michael Pennix, I think, will be good.
Starting point is 00:05:53 but it does look like Bo, Jaden Daniels, and Caleb Williams can play. That's three hits. And I think Pennix will eventually. He may not play until next year. He may not play for two years, but I think he can play if he stays healthy. And J.J. McCarthy, across your fingers, if he can beat out Sam Darnold. But the more of these guys that hit, the better football is. Because you're watching New Orleans tonight.
Starting point is 00:06:17 I mean, Kansas City made that game watchable. How's Miami without Tua? It's hard to watch. Seattle has all that talent. They're a tough watch depending on the weekend. You know, Gino Smith is now 0 and 5. I went and looked it up tonight, 0 and 5 officially against San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:06:35 He never plays particularly well. No, he didn't have a run game tonight, whereas Brock Purdy did have a run game. But he's been sacked 15 times, four touchdowns, five picks, mid-80s passeretting against San Francisco. And that's a real deal, is that, you know, you can, I mean, it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses
Starting point is 00:06:53 to Kansas City. Everybody's losing to Kansas City in Mahomes and Andy Reed. But you got to beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the AFC East, Big Ben for years, owned Cincinnati and Cleveland. And Gino just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right now you have Brock Purdy's better than Gino, Kyler Murray's better than Gino, and Matt Stafford in divisions better than Gino Smith. Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in division. Listen, the Darnold story, the Baker story, the Gino story of redemption. I love. But, and Baker better than Gino. He's number three on that list. So I thought Seattle should have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I would have gone after Michael Pennock's, local kid,
Starting point is 00:07:33 and had his offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the O.C. of the Seahawks. But Atlanta gets him. So, and I also think they have to consider moving maybe a D.K. Metcalfe. I just, I don't know. It doesn't. I thought Al Michaels hit on it tonight, or maybe it was Kirkhurt Street. DK sometimes doesn't feel engaged, catching the ball with his body. I just, you get the occasional slash plays, but I just don't feel like he's always engaged. And, you know, sometimes players just get tired of teams and environments. And I don't know, there's a lot of receivers on an annual basis from college to pro. I think DK is a really good player explosive.
Starting point is 00:08:14 Somebody would be interested. But that just feels like you could move off it. and garner a good draft pick. And that draft pick you could use to move up. Because Seattle's going to win some games this year. As soon as their defensive line gets healthy, they're going to win some games. They won't be a top seven or eight drafting team. So if you have to move up, you have to give up, you know, a couple of seconds,
Starting point is 00:08:34 a couple of thirds, whatever you've got to do to move up. But I think Seattle needs to go get a quarterback. You cannot have the fourth best quarterback in the division. Right now, Gino, again tonight, a couple of picks, 30 of 51. he's a better story than he is a quarterback. Darnold this year is a great story, and so is Baker, but they're also really good quarterbacks currently. Last two weeks, Seattle's been dominated time of possession.
Starting point is 00:08:59 So, you know, and you fall into these big holes, they really weren't competitive, even though I had it tied at 10 against the Giants. If you watch the game, they were dominated. Their offense was rarely on the field. Tonight, again, you're losing time of possession. And some of that's just the defense with Mike McDonald. They're all banged up.
Starting point is 00:09:16 They can't make stops. But you can talk yourself into a lot of different things. You've got to have the first or second best quarterback in your division. Right now in the AFC, who leads the AFC East, the best quarterback in the division, Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson leads the AFC North. He's playing the best in the division. C.J. Stroud and Patrick Malmes. Okay.
Starting point is 00:09:35 And Kirk Cousins, you know, he's over there in the NFC, South, best quarterback in that division. So, yep, I think Seattle has to have a big offseason. I like John Snyder, the GM. I think he's sharp. He and Pete Carroll didn't see eye to eye. And it was a little bit of a power struggle near the end. But go get a quarterback. Go accumulate some draft picks.
Starting point is 00:09:59 Take a big swing on this. I think it's a better quarterback college draft than we thought six months ago. You know, you start watching these kids play. They all improve. I'd make the move. I'm not a huge fan of the Robert Solof firing because I think what happens. is that you end up with an interim coach and everybody plays inspired football for the interim coach and you kind of get stuck because the players all like him. A lot of times you get stuck
Starting point is 00:10:23 higher on the interim coach. But I was texting a couple of coaches, one former coach and another coach tonight. And last year, there was one really good job available because of the quarterback. The Chargers and Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, the number one candidate, swooped it up. This is going to be a rare year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Cincinnati potentially could all have coaching openings. Now, Chicago's playing well, and I think Iber Fluse at least knows his side of the ball, Matt Eber Fluse, but you could potentially have Jalen Hertz, Dak, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, or Joe Burrow available. So this is one of those years for the New York Jets. Aaron Rogers, 40, hasn't really been a great quarterback in his last 20 starts, prickly,
Starting point is 00:11:19 kind of expensive. You know, the Jets, by firing Sala, not only do you get into that interim head coach dilemma where the players love the interim head coach and play inspired football, and you kind of lose the locker room potentially if you don't hire him, because he's a guy's guy, he's an alpha, he's a former player. He's well, very well liked, according to all the people. in New York and the media, very well liked. But also, this is going to be, the Jets are not going to be the first choice.
Starting point is 00:11:52 I mean, Philadelphia's got a better quarterback in Jalen Hertz. I take him over Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime. It's a better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think Dallas has a better quarterback in DAC and a better owner. You know, Chicago and Jacksonville, I mean, I get Caleb Williams on a rookie contract in Cincinnati. Again, Burrough or Aaron Rogers at 41 years old. And don't forget, Buffalo, Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:12:21 I like Sean McDermott. But that has been a noisy coaching staff. Game management again this year is a topic of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo bill opening. And if the Giants, I think this would be a catastrophic mistake. if they moved off Brian Dable, Buffalo, in my opinion, would swoop him up in five minutes. I don't think the Giants are going to make that mistake. But add Buffalo, that's the best job available.
Starting point is 00:12:59 Good roster, solid GM, non-caotic ownership, Josh Allen. Those jobs just don't open up. That's like Matt Lefleur and Green Bay job, where Aaron was closer to his prime. Those jobs just don't become available. So if the Jets are, the Jets want to get into a sweepstakes for the best coach, they may end up with a fourth or fifth best choice. Look at these quarterbacks that could need coaches. Hertz, Allen, Burrow, Caleb, Dak. Aaron is way, way past his prime and continues to be a little, in my opinion, subversive.
Starting point is 00:13:36 He says one thing to the media. Well, you're not buying, right? You're not buying that that Woody Johnson phone call, they were just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving, right? You don't buy it, I don't buy it. Nobody buys that. So I was talking to a coach tonight, and he said, it's a good year to be looking for a job. So that's the dilemma when you sort of bumrush Robert Sala, is that the top candidates look at that, and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be available for a job, they kind of look at how you treated the last guy.
Starting point is 00:14:16 And the last guy was actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert Sala. So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the same teams in the top 10 in the draft. And we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's really, it's the guys upstairs. I remember years ago, I was with a friend. I was watching the Phoenix Sun-Chicago Bulls finals, Barclay against Jordan.
Starting point is 00:14:41 And I was talking to a friend of mine. She was a really good women's basketball player. And we were talking about Jordan. And Jordan was 6-6. Wasn't the best shooter or ball handler as a guard in the NBA. But he just made things look so easy. And that's what great players do. I mean, you watch Shohei Otani,
Starting point is 00:15:01 and it just, everything looks kind of easy. And you never see them strained. watching Derek Carr struggle mightily. Just everything seems hard. Troy Aitman at one point was being very kind as he under threw another deep ball saying, well, he threw it as far as he could. Everything with Mahomes is just, it's kind of, it's effortless.
Starting point is 00:15:26 You know, mechanics are solid. You would think watching him that he's a little loose because Aaron Rogers can be a little loose. He's really not. His mechanics are excellent. He's always got his feet and his hips right. It's just easy. And that's part of when you're watching a college athlete,
Starting point is 00:15:45 Shadur Sanders has this Colorado where he's effortlessly accurate. He can be moving left, right, forward, back, just any platform. Shadur Sanders is just, it's easy. Movement's easy. Accuracy's easy. I mean, to me, Quinn Newers now, Texas has been heard a couple times. that worries me. Carson Beck, Cam Ward's good but small. You know, you watch Shadour Sanders, and you're like, it's just, you know, he just moves and throws without great effort. And that's
Starting point is 00:16:18 what Mahomes does. And it was a great contrast to watch Mahomes effortlessly and Derek Carr straining on anything that was more than 10 yards for Derek Carr seemed like it was hard. The roller coaster of an NFL season is moving right along, and it promises to be a month. month full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. And Draft King Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns. Running it in from the one or an 80-yard bomb, we don't care how they score them. We want to bet them.
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Starting point is 00:17:50 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this plan is.
Starting point is 00:18:35 platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes
Starting point is 00:18:51 of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me
Starting point is 00:19:08 or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan,
Starting point is 00:19:27 so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Starting point is 00:19:57 Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got? to do a little kill. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.
Starting point is 00:20:14 Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes.
Starting point is 00:20:39 I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade. of my own experience in the middle health field
Starting point is 00:21:03 and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough.
Starting point is 00:21:21 Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross. Because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person? because you're afraid. Because that's two different intentions, bro.
Starting point is 00:21:34 Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app.
Starting point is 00:21:50 Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. John Middlecough, as we do every Sunday, former NFL Scout with the Philadelphia Eagles, three and outs his podcast. He joins me every Sunday night. All right, let's talk Chicago Bears 36, Carolina Panthers 10. It's an early window game. So Caleb Williams, again, every week looks a little more secure.
Starting point is 00:22:19 20 at 29, 300 yards, a couple of TDs. They jumped out to a 27-7 lead. Swift had a couple of really nice runs. The run game was okay, but Swift does give you, he gives you a pop. He'll hit on a couple of big runs, and so you have to be honest. DJ Moore, again. The game. Revenge game. Revenge game. And my take watching Caleb is, and I said this before the season, I said, I don't know if they'll win more than seven games, which is what Justin Fields won, because I do believe Minnesota and Detroit and Green Bay, the division's better. Young teams all good. But I said, you'll feel better about the seven wins. And I think today, because Carolina was playing pretty damn good football, two things today. Once again, we have to give Matt Eber, some credit. He does. He knows what he's doing on his side of the ball. Secondly, this team
Starting point is 00:23:15 was playing well, Carolina, and I thought, I think they, I think I was thinking about this. When you have somebody that's limited, Bow Nix has some limitations. It makes it easier on Sean Payton. When you have Caleb and you have fewer limitations, it may take you several weeks to figure out, okay, what am I comfortable with? What am I not comfortable with? Now, Cliff Kingsbury, who's Washington's O.C. has had several players like Jaden Daniels. So they got symmetry in camp. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:46 But you're looking at Waldron. You know, he, you're looking at his career. He never had anything like Caleb. So it feels like it's just taken the Bears coordinator and staff. Okay, we're not going to do this. We're going to do this. But I thought, I thought Caleb, I looked around today and I'm like, okay. I mean, one time he was running around.
Starting point is 00:24:05 It was almost comical. It looked like a high school. thing and he didn't get anything out of it. But if I was a Bears fan today and they only win seven, I feel like I have a franchise quarterback. Yeah, to me, you see moments like today, if they can get him more consistent throwing the ball down the field, they're going to be a lot more competitive.
Starting point is 00:24:22 Because when you have a really good defense, you're going to be in games. I just pulled out their schedule because I was thinking, like, they haven't played it in three teams in their division. They play them all late in the season. Yeah. The Vikings, the Packers. They don't play the Packers until week 11.
Starting point is 00:24:34 Yeah. And so, you could argue in the Lions, you could say, well, it's going to be a really tough stretch, but they also could benefit because think how much experience he gets to have, you know, kind of under his belt, you know, up to like Thanksgiving or whenever they start, they also play the Niners in there.
Starting point is 00:24:52 Like, if their offense can hit and he can be explosive down the field and they can run the ball, like they could be a competitive frisky team that competes in the wild card. Absolutely. They had no chance early on with him overthrowing and not having much confidence in their passing game. But if they can run the ball and he can add the explosive play element,
Starting point is 00:25:12 because their defense is when the dust settles, if they stay healthy, they're going to be a top five-ish defense in the NFL. And when you have a great defense, you see this with the Broncos, you see this obviously with the Bears. Like, your quarterback doesn't have to have a great game. Like, they could carry you
Starting point is 00:25:26 and all of a sudden it's, you know, 10-10 in the fourth quarter. You just have to make a play or two. That's always the Niners, got away with a lot of that over the year, especially with Jimmy Garoppel. Well, they were just being a 13-10 game. then one big run, you win 20 to 10.
Starting point is 00:25:40 When your defense, like today with the Bengals and the Ravens, both those teams, I would imagine on Monday, we should never go to overtime when we score 38 points. We should win the game by 17 points when the clock hits a double zero. That was a wildly entertaining game, but there's no defense. That was insane, but the bears don't play like that. They can rush the past or their stout up front, and their DBs are really good.
Starting point is 00:26:02 I was texting with a coach who played them early in the season, an assistant coach. She's like, their defensive backs are good. So if you have good defensive backs in 2024, that's the Broncos. They have really good defensive backs. Well, half the teams are obsessed with passing. Watch the Packers, what do they want to do? Throw the ball.
Starting point is 00:26:19 Obviously, the Vikings want to throw the ball. And we know the Lions like throwing the ball. So if you can, you know, defend the pass with DBEs and you have a good pass rush, you're going to be a serious, serious problem. And to me, Caleb, you know, Purdy's kind of was doing this today, that hero ball. Yeah. Sometimes it's just a couple steps to get rid of the ball. And if nothing's there, just throw it out of bounds.
Starting point is 00:26:38 You know, not everything has to be. Lamar can get away with it, but some of these guys that start doing the 360s, I mean, that used to be a Russell Wilson thing. And I think players, you know, on the offensive line would have been like, just get rid of the ball. Right. What are we doing? Because every sweet play you hit, three or four of them screw up and you get sacked
Starting point is 00:26:56 or maybe you throw a pick or. So, yeah, I think the Bears, the Panthers kind of came back to Earth today. Yeah. But part of that was the Bears defense. So I, yeah. Nice little win. So the New York Giants controlled the Seahawks all day, even when it was 10-10. And they go on to beat Seattle 29-20, blocking a kick up in the Pacific Northwest.
Starting point is 00:27:15 So this was, this is the one game I've lost so far. But as we do this, I thought Seattle, no Malik neighbors, singletary was banged up. But I will tell you, when you watch the Giants, their O-lines and D-lines, they've committed to those in the draft and in acquisitions. I mean, Daniel Jones, 23 of 34, two touchdowns, 257. He rushed 11 times or carried 11 times. I thought that is as good as Dan. And that's without Malik neighbors, John.
Starting point is 00:27:49 Like, I watched that today, and I'm not surprised by much. Bandy beating Bama, you know, USC losing. Yeah, yeah, USC losing the way they did. The Giants, that was 2920. It felt like they were the better team. And you've got to give this team credit. They have an offensive coach unlike the Jets. Their defensive lines, excellent.
Starting point is 00:28:12 When I watch the Giants, I think they're well coached. I think they're limited. But Daniel Jones, he moves. He's big. He's healthy now. What did you make of that win? It's something. Yeah, well, let's just acknowledge this.
Starting point is 00:28:27 You removed week one when they played Minnesota and got embarrassed. Dan Jones has been pretty good this season. He really has. He's made a lot of plays. I mean, he made a bunch of plays against Washington in the game when they didn't have a kicker. Yeah. And Malik neighbors, that kind of got his to start going. I didn't think he was that bad against the Cowboys.
Starting point is 00:28:45 He underthrow some deep balls, but no one ever, like, he's not Josh Allen or Mahomes. He's not a deep ball thrower. But he's not turning the ball over. There was one time I looked up and he would lower his shoulder. So, I mean, I think he's playing just pretty solid. Now, you know, are they good enough? Like, what does that mean? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:29:05 I mean, Seattle think about, played Monday night in Detroit. I don't, what's that flight? Four and a half hours. You lose, you get back. Kind of your classic. Come out the gates, not playing that hard. New York off a long week because they had just played Thursday. Look like the fresher team.
Starting point is 00:29:22 Yes. But New York is not, I don't know, they're more likely in my mind to win six or seven than nine or ten. But they are a tough, you know, operation to play right now. They are not some joke frame. This is not, you know, I don't know, think of the worst team in the Miami Patriot game. They remind me of Denver. They're squeezing every ounce out of their team. And that to me is coaching.
Starting point is 00:29:46 I mean, I watched them today. And I'm like, I thought I'm like, neighbors, Singletary. How the hell do they move the ball? Now, again, Seattle is dinged up on the D line. But when I'm watching Daniel Jones, it's one of those things. It's just the Hostetler. It's Phil Sims. it's Eli. Even when they have the right quarterback in New York, it's never dynamic and pretty. And I love Phil Sims and Eli. But there's a hostile quality to Daniel Jones. And years ago, when I worked at the other place, I used to call them the accounting firm of the NFL. Even when they have a great earnings report, it's boring. They're a boring team. But I don't think you can deny. We have to be totally honest about this. Brian Daybull, and in New York, it's just harder to coach. I mean, if he was going through what does, he,
Starting point is 00:30:33 Peterson's going through the last two months, he'd be done. He'd be out with a Trevor Lawrence. He'd be fired. When I watch that offense, again, I'm watching Sean Payton scored 34th day with Bo Necks. They're just squeezing every ounce. Then I watch Josh Allen have a terrible day. So I look at the Giants and I'm like, they have what kind of the Jets don't, which is a really good offensive coach. They get the most out of their talent. There's really no drama. The HBO series didn't help, but there's not a lot of drama around him. They're boring. I don't love Daniel Jones, but I will say this. He'd have a market because of what Brian Dable's done. He'd have a market. Denver hammered the Raiders 3418. They now have a better record than the Jets at 3 and 2 with a rookie
Starting point is 00:31:23 quarterback and a roster. This was one of my takes this offseason. The best overbet was Denver, because I think their roster's okay, not great. But they are generating a pass rush without a Pro Bowl guy up front. And I watched Bo Nix had a touchdown pass drop today. And this is the difference between defense. It was a great throw, too. Great throw. Is I watch Bo Nix. Now, Jaden Daniels is different. I feel like I'm watching Lamar Jackson light. That's what I feel like Jaden Daniels. I don't know what Bo Nix's comp is. And I was going to ask you about this as a former scout. I do think there's a ceiling. He is smaller. He doesn't have a big D. arm. It's a little Derek Carr. I think Derek Carr right now is a better deep arm than Bo Nex does.
Starting point is 00:32:09 Do you have a comp for, because clearly, I mean, Sean is doing a Brian Dable. He's squeezing every ounce out of this roster. What is Bo Neck's ceiling? Who is he to you? I think before quarterback inflation, he fell under that Derrickard, Jimmy Garoppel. You know, historically, he would have been a second round pick. Okay. Now, he's a better athlete, and I'm talking about. I'm talking and the Jimmy when he was decent for the 49ers. And Derek, you know, people love to bag on him. He's had some pretty good years. Yes.
Starting point is 00:32:40 For a team that, let's face it, no one wins with in the Raiders. So, and I actually kind of, you know, the Saints, I think they're going to have a good season. And he's been playing well this season. So I think he's under that mold. Now, he's a better athlete than both those two guys. Yes. Derek, you know, when Derek was young, he had some pretty good pop in his arm. I would say he's got more arm strength than bow.
Starting point is 00:33:04 Yeah. But he'd never had a coach of Sean's, you know, level. He's had a lot of defense and coaches. Yeah. So I think that I think he can be a really good player if you build up the team. And one thing Sean Payton has done, really the last couple years of Drew Brees, when he brought in Dennis Allen, they became good on defense. I'm watching him today. We know Certain.
Starting point is 00:33:25 I mean, he's been a highly recruited guy since he was like 15 years old. But they have other DBs flying all over the. The field. I didn't have the volume on. A couple guys made plays. I had to look up their names. Like, who are these D.Bs? Because they are.
Starting point is 00:33:40 I get it. They're playing the Raiders and Minchew and O'Connell. But that was, okay, you removed that Brock Bowers play early in the game. Once they got to the second quarter, they took control and they came out of half time. And that was, they curb stomped them. I mean, they absolutely throttled them in the second half. And they're offensively, Mims looks like a good pick. Giovante Williams are running back.
Starting point is 00:34:03 He could catch it and he can run it. I think I've always liked Cortland Sutton. They like the Oregon wide receiver that dropped the ball Franklin. Franklin. And it's kind of the knock on him right as the hands, but he's got speed. And they played together in college. So I kind of look at Denver and... Are they a playoff team?
Starting point is 00:34:24 John, I look at them like I look at Chicago. You watch their defense and you're like, okay. So I have a Super Bowl trophy coach. Their defense is much better than people think. It's faster than people think, like Chicago, and have a rookie quarterback. The difference is the NFC North may be the best division in football probably is, whereas the Raiders are a mess. The chargers, you cross their fingers, they get healthy. The chiefs are vulnerable, though they're on a heater.
Starting point is 00:34:55 They're vulnerable. In fact, I like the points in the Saints tomorrow. They're just not beating anybody. Denver is... I mean, it's 3418 and they dropped a touchdown. I think they're personnel. You know, I like this GM Patton. I didn't love the Russell Wilson move, but in fairness, I liked it when they made it.
Starting point is 00:35:14 I didn't know Russell was going to drop off the cliff. I kind of like Denver's players. Well, to me, when you look at the landscape of the AFC, right, the Chiefs, the Texans, you know, are going to be there. Obviously, the bills are going to be there. Right now, the Chargers are the seventh seed. and just based on injuries, you just know they're going to have so many. It's going to be hard to overcome. If their quarterback's banged up, they'd just be screwed.
Starting point is 00:35:38 But it turns out Miami sucks. The Jets are, I mean, a complete wild card at any moment. I mean, there's been multiple times this season when Rogers went down and you're like, is he going to get back up? I mean, that happened the day when he got bent over. You thought, is this season over? And even if his season, he plays in all 17 games, but they are by no means no lock to win nine games.
Starting point is 00:35:58 the Browns, a playoff team from last year, is an absolute train wreck right now. I mean, has the worst quarterback situation slash vibes going on right now because of the negativity surrounding that situation. So I think you just look at the landscape of the AFC, Cincinnati, who obviously is pretty good. I mean, they got a pretty special offense, but you start playing a numbers game. All of a sudden, you're two and five. How do you ever get back? You can't, you're not able to win enough games in a row when you have that big of a flaw as a defense. a football team.
Starting point is 00:36:30 That's what's crazy about the Ravens is like, where do their defense go? But Cincinnati, like that has, like, they're not good on defense. And it's hard. I don't care if you got Joe Burrow, Jamar, Jason T. Higgins, who all look fantastic. If your defense is that bad, well, the Broncos are like, hey, we're going to have some games when the kid throws for 75 yards. And you know what? We'll win the fucking thing, 16 to 13. We got no problem to it.
Starting point is 00:36:48 Cincinnati doesn't even have that capability. Harbaugh, in theory, would. But Joey Bose is already sitting in a suite. You know, the injuries have kind of unraveled. And, you know, you got Herbert Lynn. limping around. This team just, the speed of Denver's defense. I got to do more of a deep dive on their defensive roster.
Starting point is 00:37:05 I don't even know some of their players besides For Tane, who is, I mean, what does he look like right now? Like Charles Woodson meets Rod Woodson in his prime? How good does he look? Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Starting point is 00:37:26 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and we're with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying.
Starting point is 00:37:49 Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this play. platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,
Starting point is 00:38:19 and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app,
Starting point is 00:38:40 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away,
Starting point is 00:39:03 such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Boar Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do that?
Starting point is 00:39:28 do a little kill. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s.
Starting point is 00:39:45 To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have on the table right now.
Starting point is 00:40:01 Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.
Starting point is 00:40:24 And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience. in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.
Starting point is 00:40:43 And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross. Because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Starting point is 00:40:58 Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keer Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. All right, time for another edition of Sharp or Square with my buddy Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, All Odds provided by Draft King.
Starting point is 00:41:32 So last year, I had a rough first month, then I caught fire. And one of the reasons I caught fire is I started noticing a trend in my picks, is that I was overthinking the room. And as this league has become more quarterback-centric, when all else fails, the best quarterback is winning the games regardless of the spread. And that Monday night's a great example, as everything told you, oh, those unlucky saints. And then two plays in, you're like, I'm Benny against Patrick Mahomes over,
Starting point is 00:42:02 Derek Carr. So a great example of that to me this week, I'm going to inverse it. Aaron Rogers, since December of 2022, has had one 300-yard game. In that time, Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay. Desmond Ritter has had more than one is that because he's a pretty passer and we tend to embrace pretty longer, the aging supermodel. We grow up with them. We can't let Pateen Manning was great, but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient quarterback. So Josh Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This is a team that's gone through a chaotic week, they're still banged up on the offensive line.
Starting point is 00:43:03 Josh Allen is significantly better than Aaron Rogers. I am swallowing the two and a half points. I'm going against the high energy of a interim coach. Let's go backwards, sharper square. I mean, it's square, as square as can be. You're going to take a road favorite in the division. That is a trend that will work against you over time. You are going to buy a team, well, the bills obviously aren't a two-game losing streak.
Starting point is 00:43:37 You're going against a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets playing at home because they're going through a coaching change and because there has been all this chaos in their organization for the past month. So you're really playing against into what the public wants. The public, by the way, are betting the bills at about a 85 to 90% clip. And that's another time when you want to fade the public. So it's square. This line is moved in the bill's direction. All the money is coming. The bets are on the bills. The wise guys have bet this down to two. It goes back up to two and a half. They take it again. It goes back down to two. Wise guys are on the JETs.
Starting point is 00:44:29 I do not believe, although I said the Denver Broncos, would be significantly better. They were my choice. Last year, I said the Rams are not a six-win team. This year, I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not a five-win team. They're going to win eight or nine, probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three-game heater. That said, Bo Nicks against Justin Herbert, who's healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off a buy.
Starting point is 00:44:55 Chargers minus two and a half at Denver. Again, I'll take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatch at quarterback. I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four-game winning streak team. I am selling them at a high point, sharper square. Dude, there's a couple games this week where there is zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides. And this is one of those games. I will say that I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:45:25 My favorites co-host Simon Hunter Professional Better is with you. This line was at three, got bet down to two and a half, then it goes back up to three, then it gets bet down. What that is telling you is that when the game is at two and a half professionals, a certain section of professionals love the charters. And when the game is at three, a different group likes the Broncos. and they are basically just playing each other right now. They are just betting back and forth, back and forth. And like, what's interesting about these games? And we've talked a little bit about this.
Starting point is 00:45:59 When it comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and also people like Dan Campbell, they are building from the inside out. They are building from the line of scrimmage. And with Harbaugh and Campbell both, it's really been about the offensive line. So Joe Al, coming back, hopefully Rashon Slater, coming back for the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:46:19 That will mitigate the Broncos' greatest strength, which is their pass rush, which this year is top five in pressure rate. And it's really the reason why the Broncos have been staying in the games they're staying. So to me, I like the chargers here because I think that they have the better quarterback. And I don't believe in Bo Nicks yet. I think they've won with some smoke and mirrors right now. But it is, you are not going to find a sharp side over there. or a square side on this. I will say the Broncos are a very public dog.
Starting point is 00:46:57 Because they've been winning, the public is coming in. So if you're looking for how to fade, you do want to fade the Broncos. Let's go to London. I think Caleb Williams and his offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not a Pop Warner team. Give us more.
Starting point is 00:47:19 Since that time, Caleb Williams is completing 71% of his throws and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out of a long losing streak and almost gave that game away. Whereas the Bears, I can look at them and go, excellent defensive coaching. And I can look at Caleb Williams and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about the Jaguars. I can definitively say I like. the bears are starting to add to the things I like. We know that Iber Flus can coach defense.
Starting point is 00:47:55 That's inarguable. It's like Robert Sala. You don't have to love him. He knew defense. I'm going to take the Bears minus one and a half in London. Favorites do well overseas, Sharper Square. Favorites are, I think, 35 and 10. I don't know why.
Starting point is 00:48:10 Right? And, by the way, I think it's something like 30, 14, and won against the spread, including this past week, Minnesota beating up on the Jets, right? So the wise guys have been betting the Jags in this spot. They're not fully bought in on the Bears. They feel like the Bears have beaten bad teams. And until the Panthers, you know, they didn't look that great, beaten the Colts. They didn't look that great, beating the Rams.
Starting point is 00:48:42 I agree with you what you're seeing about Caleb Williams. He was definitely taking steps. and it's not like the Jags defense is anything that is lighting up the league or that people are afraid of. And to your point, like Doug Peterson, after that touchdown pass to Alec Pierce by Joe Flacco in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted to disappear into a hole. Like he was on the balls of his feet, his elbows on his knees, like he looked devastated. Like, I don't know what to do with this team anymore. So this is not a good team, but they're still betting the Jacks. And I'll be honest with you, it's all trend-based and model-based. There is nothing on the field that makes
Starting point is 00:49:24 any professional better. Look at this and say, oh, yeah, I got to take the Jags. This is where, by the way, your quarterback theory might play out because... Best quarterback wins. Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't think there's anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't ascendant and that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit plateaued or even regressing. right now. I think some of the things that the wise guys like, if it's anything, it's about the travel. There is a very significant trend and record
Starting point is 00:49:56 of the team that has played in London before performing better because it is so sort of dislocating for both teams that when you've had that experience, it plays to your strength. So I have this belief. When there's a line, most lines are three, three and a half, two and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and a half. But when the line's four and a half to five, what they're telling you is one team is clearly better. And that tells me that Green Bay minus five
Starting point is 00:50:28 is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe that young quarterbacks, Jordan Love still qualifies as that at home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy, but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice this week. I picked Green Bay to win the division. Jordan loves injury, slowed that down. I have seen now a half here or a half there where they look really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat. I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow the points five and take Green Bay Sharper Square. Totally sharp. It's the side. The Cardinals are one of those public teams.
Starting point is 00:51:14 We just talked about it with the Broncos. They're fun to watch. Yeah. Like they're really fun to watch. And look, they just had their Super Bowl, right? The Cardinals right now are in second place in their division
Starting point is 00:51:24 and the Niners are in third because they're both two and three and the Cardinals beat the Niners. The challenge with Kyler Murray is there's so much inconsistency and we liked what we saw, Trey McBride, but again, like, they won that game
Starting point is 00:51:41 because at the end of it, the Niners didn't have a kicker. And so they had to make really unorthodox decisions when they were in the red zone when otherwise they might have been kicking field goals. And if not for a fumble, the Cardinals don't get the ball back and they don't get a chance to drive
Starting point is 00:51:58 for the game winning kick, right? So we have to take some of this cardinal ascendancy with a little bit of a grain of salt. And I think I'm seeing the same thing that you are with the Packers. Number one, Matt LaFleure is a genius when it comes to scheming. He is clearly going to be a better coach
Starting point is 00:52:15 than Jonathan Gannon is going to be. And I also think the Packers' defense this year, their defensive backfield especially, very opportunistic. Already more interceptions this year through, that was before last week, than they had all of last year. So while there are still holes in their defense,
Starting point is 00:52:33 they're at least getting the turnover that they hadn't been getting in the past. And to me, I feel like we are three weeks into Jordan Love being back. this is the first game back where he's not going to be facing a really challenging defense at home, i.e. Brian Flores and the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:52:49 We saw what they did in the second half when they made the adjustments and were able to come back against the Vikings. I agree with you. Wise guys agree with you. Packers are the side. So commanders plus six and a half is my side. Here's why. Lamar Jackson eats the NFC
Starting point is 00:53:05 because you can't duplicate aesthetically, stylistically what he doesn't practice. except Washington can. They have Lamar Jackson Light. So they see Lamar Jackson Light in practice every day. I'm also a believer, until you prove otherwise, I'm going to believe what my eyes tell me.
Starting point is 00:53:26 Washington's really good. Way too good to give them six and a half. If they wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for a decade, you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else was playing this well for five weeks, Any other team, maybe outside of Carolina, there would be complete buy-in. There's utter skepticism. They're good.
Starting point is 00:53:49 They have Lamar Light. Washington's seen this at practice. I'm taking the point, sharper square. So it's square. But when you look at the numbers here, the betting tickets are on the commanders. They are the fly-high team that everybody loves right now. now, there's no doubt about it. But you can see the money is on the Ravens. And when you have a split between tickets and money, tickets represents the public, money represents the sharps, right?
Starting point is 00:54:23 And these guys have been looking to sell the commanders. So it's very possible. They will continue to be wrong. And you are right, right? Because they wanted to sell the commanders last week, and they lost. They wanted to sell the commanders the week before, and they lost. They are going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the commanders until they're eventually right. Matchup-wise, this does play to the Ravens strengths. They are a tremendous running team right now, one of the best in the league, and they are going against a terrible, terrible run defense, especially in early downs. Now, we've said this before. The Ravens last year in the AFC title game, if they had just run the ball, they win that game. Instead, they put it in Lamar's hand.
Starting point is 00:55:07 So you have to hope that they actually go with the game. game plan that will give them the best chance to win, historically, teams that are overachieving like the commanders. And when I say overachieving, meaning they are covering the point spread by about five points per game. Those teams going forward in every game thereafter until there is enough regression that it evens out, cover it about a 43% clip. This is what really worries Ravens betters, okay?
Starting point is 00:55:38 underdogs this year, six plus points, 11 and 8 straight up, 16, 2 and 1 against the spread. And this is one of those weeks. We got a few of these games. We got this one. We got the Patriots. We got the Browns. We got the Eagles. We got the Panthers and the Falcons.
Starting point is 00:55:59 It's more big spreads than we've had at any point so far this season. But here is what's really scary. Ravens backers. You could see this game. Ravens are up by 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7. Any number like that and the back door is wide open
Starting point is 00:56:23 and the Ravens past defense is soft and Jaden Daniels will not quit. This commander's team will not quit. They might know they're not going to win the game, but they might score that back door. So it's it's going to be a sweat. It is not going to be a, oh, yeah, it's a blowout.
Starting point is 00:56:41 And by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens Betters feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show. Okay. One thing that almost guarantees consistency, college or pro football, is a really good offensive line. You kind of get the same Detroit team every weekend.
Starting point is 00:57:02 People just don't quite realize how good the New York Giants' offensive line is. That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field. Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Malik neighbors, without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage. They're not as good as Detroit. But Cincinnati can't stop anything.
Starting point is 00:57:32 And this very quietly, because it's been so bad for. many years. This giant's O line reminds me of the Giants D line. It controls most of the teams it plays. I'm taking the three and a half points, New York plus three and a half at home, sharper square. Totally sharp. I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because you truly are a maven of the media, a master of content and a man who understands where the audience is going and what they want to hear. But this just felt like the kind of game you'd want to ignore unless it's a prime time game. But you're 100% right.
Starting point is 00:58:17 The wise guys are on the Giants here. This line actually, it opened at three and a half. And like, you can see in the juice, the Vig, the commission, the way the bookmakers start to play with those things. Normally the numbers at minus 110. then when it starts to go up, minus 115, minus 120, that's basically them saying to you, all right, it's going to move or the other side plus 115 plus 120. This number is going to move to three. And that's because the wise guys are buying the hook, the half a point, for the Giants,
Starting point is 00:58:50 because they feel the same way you do. They think this team has been balling out lately. Daniel Jones has been playing much better. Brian Dayball has been calling great game plans the past. a couple of weeks. And look, like, go back, what was it? Three weeks ago, they're playing the commanders. They don't score any touchdowns. And like, that's why they lose that game. I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look, this team is better than you think. But one ball bounces a different way. And the commanders aren't even six and a half point underdogs. They're more. And no one's
Starting point is 00:59:28 saying, oh, the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the giant. They're saying the Giants should be any more than a field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's, that's an interesting pick by you. So let's go to the best offensive line in football Detroit. So this line was at three and a half. And I said on the air on FS1, if it comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple things. Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of the league. I'm not really sure what team I get. Just depends on the matchup and the mood. I get the same, and that's because Dallas has a very left tackle, revolving door, injuries. You don't know what they are with our offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team. Detroit is a completely consistent team.
Starting point is 01:00:14 Listen, they give up yards, they do, on the back end. I mean, Gino Smith had 38 first downs against them, and that worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle. the left tackle for Dallas? Yikes. I know it's a road favorite, but at three sharper square, I like Detroit. Well, it's not sharp, right?
Starting point is 01:00:37 Nobody in their right mind is going to say, as a professional better, yes, the right side here is the road favorite and the public side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is so on point And you talk about quarterbacks and bad quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision maker for you. For me, more and more it's becoming about who controls the line of scrimmage. Because to me, that is the most consistent and dependable way a team can define performance and live up to expectations, right?
Starting point is 01:01:18 There's going to be some matchup issue at some point on the edges. A running back may get hurt. a quarterback is having a bad game, but offensive line, defensive line consistency is pretty easy to mark. Lions, they're top five, top two dominant, not just as an offensive line, but as a defensive line,
Starting point is 01:01:41 but when you look at their offensive line across the board, like this is why this team is a top five overall offensive team right now. And to me, what's really fascinating is you look at the Jared Goff game. He went 18 for 18, but it wasn't Jared Goff going 35, 40 for 400 yards and four touchdowns, working outside of the offense because it was a, you know, a shootout. Jared Goff working within the confines of the offense, Ben Johnson calling a great game. Dan Campbell clearly has said, we're not ourselves, these first few games.
Starting point is 01:02:20 Let's get back to basics. Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent. So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can think of favors the lightens here. And every other metric when you look at the Cowboys and you shake it out, it basically says their defense, especially against the run is trash. I don't know if the wise guys will be with you. I know I will be. We're making an executive decision.
Starting point is 01:02:49 Colin, we're going with the Lions. The college game of the year is Oregon getting about a field goal. It was like four. Now it's down to three against Ohio State. I think they could meet in the playoff. I think Eugene, they've won 34 of 35 at home. Dylan Gabriel's completing almost 80% of his throws. They have their O line right. I think Ohio State's better. But I think putting kids, I mean, if you go look at Ohio State against top 10 teams, they've actually not been very good the last three years. I think I would take Oregon in the points, sharper square. I would too. I think that the quarterback play for Ohio State is, eh, you know, the reason why the receivers keep making so many fantastic catches is because the throws aren't always that good. And, you know, it's interesting. What did Nick Saban say on Game Day? He's like, you spend $20 million, it doesn't really matter.
Starting point is 01:03:39 You've got to spend the right 20 million on the right guys. And I think this is the beginning of a gauntlet for Ohio State. They spent that $20 million at probably right. before they're about to have the hardest schedule that they have had in years to get to a national championship contending position. I think we all believe they'll make the playoff, but it's no guarantee you got Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, 23, 4, like, that Big 10 now is brutal. So I agree with you. I like Oregon. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review.
Starting point is 01:04:22 Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 01:04:46 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 01:05:11 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.
Starting point is 01:05:34 Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me.
Starting point is 01:05:58 I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.
Starting point is 01:06:18 Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career
Starting point is 01:06:35 in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford Show on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.

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