The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Nick Wright on Deion Sanders & Caleb Williams, Week 4 NFL Bets, Lions beat Packers

Episode Date: September 30, 2023

Prime Cuts. The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast.  First, Colin talks with Nick Wright about Caleb Williams and if he is already a Top 5 Most Valuable QB in the world already. Nick & Colin discuss the USC-Colorado game and their predictions for Coach Prime as a home dog vs the Trojans. Colin is joined by CCO of The Action Network, Chad Millman, and the two play Sharp or Square for Week 4 of the NFL. Colin tells Chad which NFL bets he's considering for his Blazin' 5 and Chad tells him whether the bets are "sharp" (good) or "square" (not-so-good). Colin gives his takes on Jared Goff and the Lions beating Jordan Love and the Packers on TNF. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. We're back with another week of football, and Draft King's Sportsbook is keeping us in on all the NFL action. Great offers every single game. New customers can bet $5 and get $200 instantly in bonus bets. Throw five down on any of the week's epic matchups, walk away

in Instant Witter. Draft Kings is not stopping there. All customers take advantage of two new offers every game this September. Football's more fun when you're in and the action. No question about it. Download the app now. Sign up code Colin. That's me, C-O-L-L-I-N. New customers bet just $500 instantly and bonus bets only on Draft King Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL with the code Colin. The crowd is yours. This week on Prime Cuts, Nick Wright and I on USC Colorado. And if Caleb Williams, frankly, is already a top five quarterback talent in the world, Chad Millman Sharper Square, and my top takes of the week. I was saying this. Yesterday I was talking, I think it was Jason McIntyre. I said it on the air and I text him yesterday. It's the strongest

quarterback class ever. Arizona is not the worst team. Chicago probably is. And you'd obviously take Caleb Williams over Justin Fields and start over. That's not even a discussion. Arizona. is going to win three or four games and they're just not going to be there. And there's also other quarterbacks, but I would not take Drake May over Kyler Murray. I would take Caleb over everybody not named Mahomes, Josh Allen. You and I are the only people saying this. People thought I was out of my mind. I said that Caleb is one of the five most valuable quarterbacks alive right now.

Totally agree. If every NFL player and college player were available, Mahomes goes one, there's some debate about who goes to, and Caleb goes before everyone other than maybe three people. Yeah, Josh Allen goes before him. I would take Burrell before him, although Burrell's injuries now are mounting. He can't get through a preseason. He's hurt again. It does worry you.

And I would have said Trevor three weeks ago, but I thought Trevor's been a little disappointing, but he's on the short list, but that's it, man. He goes before, this is not disrespectful. He goes in a heartbeat before hurts. Before Lamar, before Tuah, before De, he just does. Caleb goes before all those guys. Totally agree. I wouldn't take it before Mahomes, Alan, Herbert.

I think he's better potentially than Trevor Lawrence, but you've kind of, he's a Southern kid. It's a Southern city. I think you go with him. And then I think it gets, then I. That might be the list. That could be the list. And I would take him over Herbert. And I would take him over Herbert.

And I, I wouldn't because I think. Herbert has been undercoached. I mean, they're on their second or third coordinator, their second coach. Sure. That's fair. I think if he had a reasonable offensive coach, his numbers, I mean, I watched him Sunday. He is. He threw 400 yards. I mean, he did play pretty well.

He played pretty well. And without Austin Eckler, Mike Williams late. It's just on the road. Can I ask you a college football question? This is kind of a media question as well as college football. Oh, by the way, I think there's nothing. and I like Dan Lannning. I like him a lot.

Dan Lining is a Kansas City guy, used to listen to my radio show, called in to my buddy's radio show in Kansas City, the church of Laslo. I like Dan. But I got a little bit of a chuckle. The coach of the Oregon Ducks, also known as the Nike Marketing University of football,

being like, they're in it for the clicks. We're hard notes. We play these games with the lights, Like, huh? Don't you guys have neon yellow jerseys? They have 300 uniforms. Give me a break.

Hold on. Speech was for his players to get them fired up. But I saw that. I'm like, this isn't exactly Texas A&M out here being like, give me a break. All right. So there's my question. I think USC is going to score 70 points on Colorado. I think it's in play.

I mean, I think Oregon has a better defense. than USC. Yeah. USC is a better offense. USC is going to score every time you've got to the ball. If Colorado gets annihilated again, does the country stop caring about them for this year? I think, yeah, I think it, I think it, I think Colorado, because they're humiliated, is probably more competitive at home and USC's defense is better than last year, but not great.

So I think it's more of a 45 to 21 game. I think it's, I don't think it's that close. USC is clearly better. they may score in the 50s. I think what Dion is done, he has not moved college football fans to his channel. He's brought in people that didn't like college football, pro fans, Dion fans, Cowboy fans.

If you look at the numbers, he's not moving people from Georgia to Colorado. No. He found like three million people. He's got it. Yeah. And listen, it's not, it's not poor form to say it because it's facts. he is there are massive amounts of black people that were not watching college football that are now

not that black people don't watch college football but when you look at the act our guy michael mulva hill at fox has all the data and tweets and out deion what dion is done for the for the black audience of college football and that's i mean it's it's it's it's historic it's it's unprecedented he added 35 to 40 percent viewers that don't watch the sport Correct. And that's not obviously all black people, but that is disproportionately a black audience. And so I just wonder, I think this, there was the other, like the idea, there were some after Colorado got their teeth kicked in. There were some pushback. They were like, oh, maybe now the media will stop pushing this down our throats. Guys, there were 10 million people watching a Colorado, Colorado state game at two in the morning Eastern.

Yeah. If you go to draft kings, volume more of the draft kings, right? If you go to draft kings, they have a tab. It's like the end, you want to bet the NBA, the NFL, college football, Colorado, and the tennis.

Like, that's true. Go look at it. It's, I mean, it is, this was not. Certain things are media creations. The interest in Colorado was not. People were into it. Yeah. And I think they still are.

If they lose by 40 next week, I think it dissipates. Yeah, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelsey is very much media generated. It's fun. It was a blowout. The game was over. Let's put it up. I'm fascinated in Dion Sanders. I don't think it will be as, you know, intergalactic ratings bonanza, comets through the sky.

But I'll still watch. I mean, I said before, I'm not rooting former against him. I root for interesting. Dion's interesting. The cowboy hat, the shade. the attitude. Colorado's been a, I mean, you don't even remember this. I knew Colorado sports because of Robbie Benson, a movie in the 70s called One-on-One. You could Google it. It was an iconic movie. Like, nobody cared about Colorado sports. The first memory I have at Colorado sports, I was never a

Missouri football fan, but I'm from Kansas City, Missouri is the fifth down play. I don't know if you meant Missouri was playing Colorado at the end of a big eight season one year. And the down guy's screwed up and Colorado got to fit down. But so, all right, here's my last Colorado thing. This is their schedule the rest of the way. Home for USC. Loss. They're going to get, yeah, at Arizona State.

Win. They can win that. Okay. Home for Stanford. Win. At UCLA. Win. Okay. Well, then they're fine. Home for Oregon State is probably a loss. Go either way, game.

Home for Arizona. Win. and then at Wazoo and at Utah, lost, loss. They'll definitely lose at Utah. That would they'll lose. Utah's home. Utah's just big,

if you put, took Chidor and Colorado's best skill guys, and give him to Utah. And gave him to Utah. You'd have the best team in the country. I mean, because Utah has all the, when Dion's talking, I need seven or eight people,

he means offensive and defensive line. He needs big people. So you think they can go seven and five, eight, and four? Absolutely. Yeah. That would be an amazing season. Yeah, I think it's wonderful. He is brought, and when I say he's brought people in that didn't watch the sport,

he's brought NFL fans in, Niner fans, Cowboy fans. He's brought people that didn't really like, they're Dion fans. And by the way, if Dion walked through a mall, it's not just, it's, it's, it's, he's, he's Dion Sanders. He's had all sorts of fans forever. Wilds asked this, and it was a very interesting question. It wasn't even on TV. He's asked me, he said, is Dion the most famous person to ever coach college football? And it's like, I mean, I don't, well, Bear Bryant is famous because he coached college football. Yes, I think he's the most famous person that is coach college football. And like right now, if Nick Saban and Dion, Sanders are walking on separate sides of the mall, first of all, there are parts of the country where Nick Saban would not be bothered. And even in Alabama, everyone knows Dion. They might be more excited about Nick, but everyone, nobody doesn't know him.

And so, like, that is a real power. It is a level of, like, fame and celebrity we've never had in college football. When you, when you have a nickname and people in your nickname, doesn't have anything to do with your name. Like Mamba, Kobe. Yeah. That's famous. Prime.

Dion Sanders. Like usually, you know, it's connected to your name. Correct. There's very few people, music or otherwise, that have a nickname where their name's not included in it. And universally, everybody knows who you're talking about. And it's another word on its own. You know what? Like, it's not like, like, it was shackies with you, but it's a,

Another word on its own. Prime means its own thing. But right now, if someone says prime, you think of Colorado football, that's pretty goddamn powerful. Yeah. No, I think it's great for this. I love college football. I think he's brought some NFL fans that are Sunday viewers that don't watch Saturday football. There's certainly, as you noted, an African-American component. But I think a big chunk of it is he brought Sunday people to Saturday TV. And it's great. Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's absolutely right. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok. Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast.

Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, everybody, it's time for Sharper Square. Chad Millman, the CCO of Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. I went three, one, and one on my blazing five picks. Rams was a push, even though I thought they outplayed the Bengals for the first two quarters, maybe two and a half, but that's the way gambling works.

All right, let's start with some favorites. As you know, I'm not a huge fan of favorites. I usually take three to four underdogs, but I think it's interesting. Miami goes on the road again. They have struggled to stop Josh Allen again and again. And here's what concerns me, is that Buffalo can create pressure bringing just four. That's the way to slow down Miami, New England. You don't need sacks. You need to create a little chaos and pressure. So I think Buffalo minus two and a half is one of my favorite bets of the week. At minus three, I still lean Buffalo, but teams that score 70, they feel themselves a little, pull back a little,

another flight to the Northeast. What say you, Sharper Square Shad? Dude, it's like you are reading from the Sharp script. No joke. Everything you just said is why the wise guys are on Buffalo at minus two and a half. So, A, they tend to like a divisional game if they, they tend to like a divisional game if they can get the favorite under a field goal. So there is a slight lean there. B, what you said about the pressure is key. Sean McDermott has had Tua's number, right? Tua has been incredibly good against every other team,

and he's been much less good against Sean McDermott. And now Sean McDermott has what you just said. He has film of what the Patriots did, and the Patriots did a really good job against Tua. Now, look, they have Christian Gonzalez, who is turning into an eight. A plus graphic and a dominant cover corner. But what they basically did with that umbrella coverage was they did not blitz very much.

And if you talk about Buffalo, which you just said as well, Buffalo has 12 sacks leading the NFL, right? But they are the third lowest in pressure from blitzing. So they are not doing it because they are sending a lot of players. They're doing it because their front four is getting to the quarterback. And then look, those are all the on the. field stats. Let's look at it from a betting point of view. You want to fade the team that just scored 70 points. There's not a lot of data about how teams that score 70 points do against the

spread the following week. But I can tell you, when a team scores 70, generally, you want to go against that team. There is so much public sentiment for this team. And look, this is a game that is kind of vexing the wise guys a little bit. If you look at the data, 70% of the money is on Buffalo. So when you get money on one side, that generally means professional betters like it. But the tickets are kind of split 50-50. And what's that saying is that people aren't like the wise guys who might like Miami aren't rushing in because they really don't know what to do with this game. They don't know what to do with this team. Miami, one wise guy described them to me as a little bit like the Matrix full of cheat codes. And so they're either betting Buffalo or they're passing.

My favorite bet of the week is Minnesota minus for against Carolina at Carolina. Here's why. Carolina has a problem. There is nobody to throw to. Mingo may not be a bust. He doesn't separate. He's a more talented, Nikiel Harry. He doesn't separate.

Young quarterbacks need people who separate. That's why actually C.J. Stroud's having a little success. His low-round mid-round draft picks, they got some guys that can play. So, Minnesota, wouldn't you think of them differently? if that last pass was a touchdown and not tipped for a pick. So they're a little undervalued. Four is the middle of nowhere. Minnesota could have easily won that game probably should have.

And Minnesota's got a veteran quarterback, an elite weapon. They're not running the football well. They matched up pretty well, I think, against the Chargers, a fairly stacked roster. I'm going to lay the four. I'm good with it. I really like the Vikings minus four, Sharper Square. kind of a eh like there's no real consensus on this game it's not a game that folks are pining to bet

you're not finding an advantage it's as we like to say as you and i like to say it's a corner tv game right someone's going to bet it so it'll be on in the sports book but the truth is there's no numbers edge right and the wise guys don't love minnesota they don't love the coaching they don't love the way they've been playing they don't love that defense at all they don't like Carolina. They don't like Bryce Young. They don't want to bet on Andy Dalton. They agree with you about the weapons on the edge. This game opened at three and a half. It's been bet up to four. I would have felt like if there was some kind of consensus, it would have been on a home underdog. And that, that column, that's sort of the indicator, right? If you're ever looking for signals

about who you want to bet on or what wise guys might like, if you see a home dog and the number moves in the direction of the favorite, then you know the wise guys are staying away from it, because wise guys tend to jump on home underdogs. All right. You know I like underdogs. Let me give you three that are tasty. Listen, Sam Howell was overwhelmed, completely overwhelmed. Philadelphia is struggling offensively.

It may just be a Shane Steichen issue. They're not the same offense. They'll win the interior line play here, but the Washington D line can play. When you get humiliated, I'll take the eight. It's a division rival. Again, young quarterbacks are hot and cold. I don't care if it's C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young. Sam Hal was awful.

The week before he was pretty interesting. I think Sam Hal, little course correct. I'll take the eight division rival short week for Philadelphia, sharper square. Totally sharp. The wise guys actually are buyers on Sam Howell. They were buyers last week on Sam Howell when he went up against Buffalo. They've been really encouraged by what they've seen and the way he's been able to handle himself in the pocket. There were some throws he had against the Broncos two weeks ago that made them sort of stand up and take notice.

He made a sideline throw that was a big throw. Great. And he had a play where he stepped up in the pocket, hit Terry McLaurin deep when he was double covered, but he put the ball in play and gave him a chance to catch it. So the wise guys have looked at Sam Howell and said, okay, we think he's better than, maybe we were judging. And look, the Eagles, I bet the, I bet the, the commanders at plus eight and a half. The number actually moved down to eight. It went back up to eight and a half.

There are some places where you can get it at better than eight and a half right now. So I'm with you on this game and the wise guys are with you on this game. I think there's one thing. It's why betters might want to wait and see where they can get the best of the number. I think the public is going to love Philadelphia. I think when a team wins in a prime time game and they looked good and the Eagles did look good in the second half, especially like Jalen Hertz has started to figure it out with his new offensive coordinator. There's going to be a huge public backing of the Eagles in this game. But I don't like that in huge favorites in a divisional game.

So I'm with you on the commanders. And so are the wise guys. So all the odds are provided by draft kings. I swear I saw the Patriots getting seven. Maybe I'm wrong. It's now six and a half. still like it. This feels ugly and low scoring. The best corner in this game three weeks ago was Trayvon Diggs. Now it's Christian Gonzalez. The best pass rusher still Micah, but Judon's having

another great year. The best coach, let's not get into it. It's an obvious slam dunk coaching edge. And I really, I believe this. I think New England's actually a pretty good team. I don't think they're explosive. I think they miss what we all see, a number one receiver. But JuJew, Kendrick Bourne, Devonte Parker, running game with great coach. coaching. I'm taking the six and a half. This thing feels like 2017, 2320. That's what it feels like to me, sharper square. Look, the wise guys have bet the Patriots. That's why it moved from seven down to six and a half. I think it's six and a half, you're kind of playing with fire, right? Because this is a game where it could easily end up as a touchdown. And at least at seven, it's a key

number. You're getting a push. The debate that's going on about this Patriots team, team is fascinating. And you know, you're always trying to drive a wedge between me and my BFF and co-host Simon Hunter on the favorites. But this has been a game that we had a fierce debate about today. I actually think this is a huge get right spot for the Cowboys. Their red zone against Arizona was terrible. This is an opportunity for them to come back and fix it. DAC in these spots as a favorite at home, as a bigger favorite, has performed well. The problem is, everything you said about the Patriots is true, and it's why the wise guys have bet the Patriots down to six and a half.

Mack Jones might be terrible, and we can say all we want about he played in a monsoon or he's played really good defenses. He has had plenty of opportunities to put the Patriots in good positions with one key throw that were available, and he didn't do it. So it's a very good chance that he's just not very good, and you're betting on a guy who's not very good on the road against a team that could have a really dynamic offense.

It's not my favorite that. I'm going to say that. I have kind of a belief now that once the schedule was extended to 17 games, people were playing starters in the preseason even less. And so week one is absurdly unpredictable. The bills were bad. The Jets look good. That's not truth.

Take out week one for Seattle, where they had no idea what McVeigh was doing with a new offense. they go to Detroit and beat the Lions, they hammer Carolina, and now they get points at New York, and New York's kind of beat up. I think they're the better team. I think the Rams,

nobody had a clue what offense they were going to run. Element of surprise. What? They dominated that game. Since then, Seattle's pretty good. Seattle's a good football team that I picked against the playoffs that made the playoffs last year. Their young players are better.

I'm going to take the points with Seattle, Sharper Square. An interesting choice. It's a sharp play, but not like, oh, my God, I'm seeing so much value. It's a sharp play because it's a short number is what you just said about the Giants. Like, they're kind of beat up. There could be regression there. Seattle, actually, like you just said, has played better in the following weeks.

And I think for some reason, there's sort of a hangover with Gino when he doesn't play well. People tend to think, oh, Gino's terrible. Whereas if he bounces back, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way other quarterbacks would, right? Right now, Trevor Lawrence has looked terrible. If Trevor Lawrence plays great this weekend in London, everyone's going to be like, oh, he's back. No one's going to think, oh, Trevor Lawrence is still bad.

He just had one good game. But everyone thinks that about Gino until he has six straight games that are really good. So I can't disagree with you on this, but definitely not one of my favorites. Okay. So then we play the game. Oh, I have one more before we play the game. Let's hear it. So Cleveland minus two and a half at home against Baltimore.

I think Cleveland has the best defense in the league. Baltimore's left tackle may play not 100%. Same with their center. This is Baltimore. They're beat up. In division game, I usually take points. I don't think we like Cleveland because of their quarterback and their history. This defense is Niners.

It's Steelers. It's insane. Baltimore remains some new. perimeter weapons, new coordinator, still figuring themselves out, still players coming back on 100%. I'd swallow the two and a half. I'll take Cleveland minus two and a half, sharper square. Totally sharp, but it has to be two and a half. At three, nobody's buying. But at two and a half, everyone's buying from a professional perspective what you're saying. Like this defense is just, it's sick. Like all the film breakdown you can do, you've probably had Cosell on to talk about

this. Like Miles Garrett is playing at a defensive player of the year level. From the front forward to the back line, they are just stacked and playing incredibly well. Look, I think they've had, there have been 30 something possessions against the Browns. There's been one trip to the red zone against them. Like the Steelers, they didn't get into the red zone. It was all defensive touchdowns like this defense is insane and Jim Schwartz might have who has had had great careers as a defensive coordinator might have the best level of talent that matches his philosophy that he's ever had. I agree with everything you said about Baltimore. What's tricky about Baltimore and this is one of those things again, are you betting what you're seeing on the field? Are you betting what

history has told you? Lamar Jackson is a favorite. Terrible. We saw it against the Colts last weekend. Jackson as an underdog, almost unbeatable. John Harbaugh as an underdog, one of the best coaches of the past 20 years. A road division underdog at three, you kind of got a pass or take the dog. At two and a half, you're going to take the favorite. All right, now we play the game. I give you a game that I want to be talked into and then a game that I totally missed. Los Angeles, Rams, element of surprise game that looked great. Since then, the offense is over. Okay, another road game. Indianapolis gets Anthony Richardson back. Shane Steichen's excellent. Their D-line and O-line combos, actually pretty good. I think Indie's going to be a roller coaster team.

But Anthony Richardson actually is a young quarterback, takes some time off, watches the game, extra time to prep with a great OC. I think I would take Indianapolis minus one and a half the Rams. Another road trip, short week. home, come back. Think I would take Indy here, Sharper Square. I think you want to rethink that. You're going to want to take the Rams. That's the sharp side. It's actually a big, big favorite of the wise guys this week. They're all buyers on Matthew Stafford. He's actually having a really good year. And if you look at that game against the Bengals, there's a couple of plays that stand out that went against them. You know, we've talked about this on the show. We do this thing.

at Action Network called the Luck Rankings, which basically takes all of the unpredictable plays and puts them into a formula with the predictable plays and tells you if everything was even, what should the score of that game been? And the Rams would have won that game. And the biggest differential between teams that have gotten lucky this far in the season and the teams that have gotten unlucky this far in the season is between the Rams and the Colts in this game. So to me, if I just see that, I'm automatically going to play the Rams. But the numbers also stack up too. Stafford is a better quarterback. This Rams defense is playing better than people expect. Anthony Richardson, huge fan. Like, it's Bijon, it's Anthony Richardson, and it's CJ

Stroud, if you're talking about offensive rookie of the year. But again, it'll be his first game back after a concussion. It's not like he's whipping the ball downfield. It's six yards per attempt, right? So he's not blowing it up. I think he's a really good player, but I think the Rams is short dogs as the player. Well, that's why I call the game to talk me into. All right, what did I miss? What's a sometimes an ugly one? I did think about Jacksonville. My guess, I thought Jacksonville's the side against Atlanta. That's what it felt. That's the one of the ones I didn't put in, but I thought that's an ugly one. My guess is Jacksonville overseas. There's a little pressure on them and they're not really up for it.

I almost love them playing overseas and like, you know what? We're going to get out of this country. Go do what we do. And we got really good players. Am I right? Am I guessing right here? No, no, you're totally right. Like Jacksonville is the side. It's the side the wise guys like. It's sitting there at minus three. But, you know, there's a lot of history to tell you that in these London games, you want to take the favorites. There's a lot in the field to tell you that you want to take the Jags here.

Look, I think in the first two games, Atlanta surprised a lot of people and made people think twice because they were able to come back. They were able to maintain. And then what you saw last week against Detroit where a lot of wise guys were on the Falcons. Desmond Ritter just was terrible. And so without a quarterback, this is a get right spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags.

So the wise guys are going to be playing Jacksonville. But I will give you a game that we didn't discuss. Okay. I'm a little surprised you didn't bring it up. Because this is a perfect spot for you. The Cincinnati Bengals on the road at the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans opened a plus two and a half. It's gone back and forth.

It went down to two because the wise guys like the Titans. Then the public is coming in on the Bengals because they just won in prime time. Look, you've got a team whose value is deflated because they just got demolished by potentially an historically great defense in the Browns, right? So that's the Titans. And then a team in the Bengals that beat the Rams, the number. on that game had swung wildly. The Rams opened to six and a half point dogs, got that down all the way to two and a half point dogs because of the Burrow News. Burrow plays. He doesn't look great, but he wins. Jamar Chase has a breakout game. It's a prime time game. You're automatically

going to have the public come in on that team. Yeah. Right? And so all of a sudden, you've got a team that the public loves on the road against a Tennessee team that is one of the best coached teams in the NFL. They've got a really good defensive line. They've got a really smart quarterback. As much as people don't want to say they like Ryan Tannejo. He plays well when he's put in a position to succeed. He doesn't make the mistakes. And Mike Frable is a superstar as an underdog.

Colin, there is one coach the past 20 years who is over 500 straight up as an underdog. not covering the spread. I mean straight up. He wins as an underdog. It's Mike Vrable. He's the most profitable coach against the spread as an underdog the past 20 years. You know, I didn't pick that game because for the first time this year, Burrow is playing without a calf restraint. Like, he's now playing.

He's practicing. He's back. And I don't like betting against Joe when he's back. And they have to win this game. That was a game that J. Mack and I had discussed off air this week. And I'm like, and now Burroughs not wearing any calf restraints. He's 100% healthy. And by the way, I thought he played better in the second half against the Rams.

Calf loosened up a little bit. I'm like, into that game, it was like, is pretty interesting. All right, that's an interesting one. So I don't know. Betting means doing bad things, Colin. Sometimes you got to do things that's scary. Listen, I like Minnesota minus four a lot. you think it's a nothing burger.

I like it a lot. I think Minnesota had that tip pass gone in their favor. We would think of them differently. It's a play. It's one play. And by like, Carolina is beat up. What do they have? They have one of the leading passers in the NFL,

one of the leading receivers in the NFL, and yet they could very much go down as one of those teams like the Jeff George led Atlanta Falcons with Andre Reisen, right? Where they run up these huge, huge numbers They never scare anybody. Nobody cares about them because it's just, it's a sugar rush. It's empty calories. You want to do something scary, Colin.

You want to know the number that was just moving today. It's been sitting for, say, five days since Sunday. And today, the wise guy started pounding it. Are you ready? Are you ready? I am. New York Jets, home underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. I'll tell you right now.

I'll tell you right now. I bet this is the Jets plus 10. It had been in nine and a half for most of the week. It bumped up to 10 yesterday. I grabbed it, went back down to nine and a half. I'm not saying I moved the number back. I'm just saying after I grabbed the 10, it went down to nine and a half.

And today it's been steaming in the Jets direction below nine. So you want to talk about a game that wise guys are on? It's the New York Jets. Can't do it. Cannot do it. Won't do it? Prudent. Not going to do it.

Not going to do it. Not going to do it. Chad Millman, CCO, Action Network. Good seeing you, buddy. All right, brother. Good luck this week. Some thoughts watching the Packers. Well, you know, if you're a Packer fan and you're rooting for Jordan Love, your takeaway could be,

hey, last couple of weeks, he's been very solid in the second half. He's been a gamer playing from behind. I like his fight. he doesn't quit he's got good mobility got in the end zone and threw a left-handed pass out of the end zone if you're not a packer fan and you have questions about him you could say last two weeks he has buried himself in the franchise getting into a big hole huge deficit playing from behind when opposing defenses let's be honest you know derrick car got hurt lions go into a more conservative mode, time clock eating offense,

maybe play a little less aggressive, prevent defense. It depends on your perspective. I, as I've said before, I'm going to give him to Thanksgiving, and then I'll have a definitive opinion on Jordan Love. My takeaway now is he's up and down. I don't see a ton of special, although I think he moves really well. he's not overwhelmed. He gets out of trouble.

He escapes. He doesn't panic. He's more than competent. Again, in this day and age, he moves well, good size, nice arm. All the elements are there. Tonight, the Detroit lines are a better football team. Jared Goff's a better quarterback. He was drafted number one.

He was a better high school, college, and so far pro quarterback than Jordan Love. They controlled the game. They have a better offensive line. I don't want to hear Packers were injured. You get to week four, five, six in the NFL. Everybody's hurt. You know, everybody's banged up. Detroit's a better football team.

This has been a laughing stop of a franchise for years, and it's very possible of golf stays in Detroit, or they draft another quarterback and get it right. They're going to be a very good team for several years. They have drafted well. They have very good players. They're not having to pay yet. Linebackers, tight-inge, edge rushers,

tackles. they've got some dudes. And for years and years, you know, you never really trusted the ownership in the front office. I really like the executive suite for the Lions. I like their drafts. They've taken some swings. Players that I watched a lot of in college,

Amaran St. Brown is a much better pro than I thought he would be. I watched every USC game of note that he played in. He's a better pro than I thought he would be. So I think Detroit is just a better team. I think they exhibited it again tonight. I think, you know, they lost it over time to Seattle. but they beat Kansas City and Arrowhead.

They dominate the Packers at Lambeau. It's a good football team. And they got really good players. So, you know, they played hard under Dan Campbell last year, but they were just missing a couple elements. They've shored up the defense. They're not a great defense, but they're a better defense. And I like what I see.

You know, I think Jordan loves fine to this point. Nothing you see. He doesn't feel overwhelmed like Zach Wilson. He's not regularly in. inaccurate like Justin Fields. There's nothing here that would mortify me. You know, some of this is just he needs snaps. He needs games.

He needs snaps. He's been uneven. Good half, bad half. Good half, bad half. That's the sign of a young quarterback. So you can sit on the bench for as long as you want. Aaron Rogers' first year, he was six and ten. And then things even out.

It's very rare when a young quarterback, Trevor Lawrence is a great talent. He has bad halves. bad quarters, bad games. So I think if you're a Packer optimist, you have to like what you see with Jordan Love. You look at the first half, the last two weeks, is better teams. Saints are a better team.

They have a better defense than Green Bay. I think the Lions have a better roster. All right. But nothing I see with Jordan Love would deeply concern me. I'm looking for some it, some special. Maybe that develops through confidence and wins. But I think in-house, I talked to Tyler Dunn, somebody who's covered the Packers now on his own platform used to work for the Milwaukee Journal.

And he said in-house, there's a feeling that they're a little ahead of schedule. They feel pretty good about it. Lions ran the ball well, better than the Packers did. More yards, more rushing yards. That helped a lot. Again, Packers are a little beat up. But, you know, I'm on a little bit of a lucky streak here. So far in the NFC, the teams I had making the playoffs, Philadelphia, Dallas.

Atlanta Saints, only the Lions in the NFC North, and Seattle and San Francisco right now would make the playoffs, 7 for 7. AFC, I'm waiting on Joe Burroughs calf to heal, and I don't know what's going on with the Jaguars. I had them as a possible number one seed. They're a mess. I do think they'll get healthy against Atlanta this weekend overseas. But all in all, better team one.

It's nice to see the Lions win. You know, I mean, like last year they were close, but you felt like, you know what? they have to win one way. They have to outscore people. Tonight they scored, but didn't necessarily have to outscore people. I thought they had a couple of calls go against them in the game. Then the Packers had that weird call on special teams on the field goal go against them.

All evens out. But, you know, you go to bed tonight, you wake up tomorrow and you think about Jordan Love, all right, we got something here. We're okay. We're fine. Doesn't mean you don't draft a quarterback in this draft. I wouldn't draft in the first round. the Packers don't have huge needs.

I really do like their tight ends and the receivers. I really think Green Bay is well positioned. But this is the youngest team in the NFL. So I think you have to come in with, you know, Jordan loves an experienced, incredibly young roster. You got to temper your expectations this year. Right now, Detroit's on like the second, third year of this group. I think they're ahead of Green Bay.

I think this team needs the age. And I think they'll age pretty well. So I like the journey. I like watching Jordan well. It's fun. there's no indignity losing to a really good underrated quarterback in Jared Goff. I don't get it. You can't tell me there's 12 guys in the NFL better than Jared Goff.

I don't believe it. I think he throws one of the best balls in the league. They have a great O-line. Jared Goff's history is when he has time to throw. He's good. He made some really, really slick throws tonight. I like him. You know that I always have.

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