The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - OBJ, Judge, Kyrie and  Crypto Bros Takes, Joe Burrow on LSU > Bama, Old Tweets + Week 10 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 12, 2022

This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Top Takes, including a super cut on why the Cowboys should roll the dice and sign OBJ, why the Dodgers should do whatever it takes to steal Aaron Judge from the Yankees, stats that prove Kyrie isn't even worth it on the court for the Nets, and why Colin has zero sympathy for the “Crypto Bros.” Then, Bengals Quarterback Joe Burrow on heading into his bye week off a convincing win over the Panthers, how he first started playing QB as a kid, what he has planned for the bye week, his biggest improvement as an NFL QB in year 3, his thoughts on some of his random old tweets, why it's been so hard to get the run game going until Joe Mixon’s 5 TD explosion, his take on LSU taking down Nick Saban and Bama, why he’s planning to catch the new Black Panther and why he’s a true Marvel fan. Finally, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 10 picks are "sharp" or "square" for, Seahawks/Bucs, Lions/Bears, Vikings/Bills, Chargers/Niners, Saints/Steelers, Cowboys/Packers, and Jags/Chiefs. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. Colin Coward Podcasts presented by FanDual Sportsbook.

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Fandul-Sportsbook app, sign up. All right, prime cuts, baby. A lot of different rants, a lot of different opinions. Joe Burrow stopped by. Chad Millman stopped by with our sharper square. I got a lot of things to talk about this week. I think you should download this stuff. You're going to get smarter.

Colin Coward podcast right here. I thought one of the more interesting things was the Jerry Jones comment about OBJ. So players over the course of a career, there are different places that are attractive at different times. I always think it's like I always understand a player wanting to make money early, especially a basketball player. make your money early. But eventually over six or seven years, Kevin Love wanted to win a title. Chris Bosch wanted to win a title.

I always thought Bosch and Kevin Love, I'd vote him into the Hall of Fame because they basically took away 10, eight points off their average going to play with LeBron in Miami or Cleveland. Great, great bigs, great shooters, high IQ. I always think of Bosch and Kevin Love as guys who were at losing organizations,

decided to basically go win titles, chase rings. after they made a bunch of money. Now, in football, it's a little different because of the shortness of a career based on violence and football. But OBJ to the Cowboys at this point in his career. The only place he's been a disaster was in Cleveland. LSU football, huge brand, home run. New York Giants Early.

Huge brand, home run. L.A. Rams. He was a big hit. Cleveland, it didn't work. It just didn't. He's too. at this point in his career, OBJ is a star

and Dallas is a star brand. And I really think it works. It works from a personnel standpoint. But OBJ is not the kind of guy anybody can build around anymore. He's just, he's too fragile. You can't build around OBJ. But if I'm his agent, this is the piece.

Because I think most cowboy fans that are realistic, and that may be half, realized, they just need more. juice offensively. I don't know if Michael Gallup is a two. C.D. Lambs are one. Doesn't have an injury history. I think OBJ fits.

He fits the brand. He's just one of those guys at this point in his career that where he lands matters. I love OBJ to the Cowboys. Last three years finish his career. I think it completely fits his personality and who he is at this point in his career. which is a playmaker and a number two receiver.

A perfect illustration of why the Cowboys should go for it with OBJ is Matt Stafford and the Rams. So Matt Stafford is on the market. He said he was unhappy. And three or four or six or seven teams make a run at him. And the Rams land him. Okay. But even with Stafford, he had some hot and cold Sundays.

So they go and make a move for OBJ in season. They make a move for Vaughn Miller in season. And those two were key essential pieces. No question, because they're both gone now and the Rams aren't the same team. They were essential pieces to win a Super Bowl. So think about that. Even if the Rams acquired Matt Stafford, had they not also aggressively landed Von Miller and OBJ,

This morning, they're a team without a Super Bowl and a quarterback in Stafford that had a bad year and is entering concussion protocol. That would be no better than Jared Gough. In fact, Gough at least stayed mostly healthy. So the Rams, there's no point in going almost all in. Stafford is going almost all in. but they identified they needed more juice beyond Cooper Cup and Van Jefferson. They identified Aaron Donald with double teams. Let's add an edge rusher.

So you don't do those moves. You got Stafford who's all banged up, having a disappointing season, and you still don't have first round picks. So the Cowboys are close. This is something the Packers have always thought they're good enough. that's why they have one Super Bowl with Aaron Rogers. The Cowboys are good enough to win playoff games. I think they're probably good enough to win two.

But remember, they're a wild card team. That's what they're going to be as of today. You go on that road, just need some extra juice. And, you know, this is a team that has been historically pretty aggressive, trades, acquisitions, free agent market, maybe all started by Jerry Jones. But if Phillies makes a move, they did, Minnesota makes a move they did, Niners make a move, Buffalo makes a move, Kansas City makes a move. If you truly believe you're in that class. Those teams, Buffalo's favored to win the Super Bowl.

Kansas City is favored. Philadelphia is favored to win the NFC today on the betting markets. And they're still making moves. So the Rams are a great example. that people thought Stafford's going all in. No, Stafford gets you right on the door. It was Vaughn Miller and OBJ that is all in. Dallas has to spend whatever it takes to get OBJ.

He is just the kind of player that can make a handful of plays, just a handful, to win you that second or third playoff game. You know, I don't talk a lot of baseball in the offseason, but I think the Aaron Judge market is fascinating. It's down to the Yankees, Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants. And something I've noticed in my profession, radio, podcasting, television, and you see it in movies, that there's a reason, like Disney now wants to make eight to ten movies a year. Either they make a billion or we're not interested in making the movie.

there's only a handful of players, non-pitchers in baseball, that can actually lead you on winning streaks, lead you to playoff wins. Bryce Harper, we saw it in Philadelphia. He led them to the World Series. Now, in the end, the great pitching, Houston beats great hitting Philadelphia.

But what you're seeing all over these platforms, The top 1% pay whatever it takes. Everything else floats. Everything else is movable. Everything else is transactional. The Dodgers draw over 10,000 more fans per game than the second best drawing team in Major League Baseball. That probably gains them 81 games, 75, 80 bucks per person into Dodger Stadium.

10,000 on average more a night, about $8 million a year, maybe $10 depending on beer prices, parking, $10 million a year. That's Aaron Judge money. You just add that over the course of four or five years. That number is going to go up. So the Dodgers led baseball last year in attendance by $10,000 per game, probably 12 to $13,000 per game, better than second place with Aaron Judge. He's the kind of guy that's going to get people to a stadium on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,

Thursday night. Friday night, Saturday night for the Dodgers, those crowds are always great. When Arod went to the Yankees, I remember hearing a Yankee executive talk about this. He put people in the stands on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night. Aaron Judge has a Paul Bunyan quality. There's nobody like him in the sport. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, really great players. But baseball has like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, That's it in terms of putting butts in seats during the week. You have to go for it. These big movie studios now, you make us a billion or we're moving off you.

Yeah, the independent film, actors, raise your own funds. Big boy studios aren't paying for that. So there's an interesting app called StatMuse. and they have sort of a cartoon drawing of people, and they give you really interesting stats. And one of them the other day, I look at it every day. I like data. I like numbers. And it was really interesting.

Regardless of your opinion on Kyrie Irving, and I have a very low opinion of him, I said last year, multiple times, he's the only star I can ever remember in my life that I would trade for rotation. pieces. I think he's a coach killer, a culture killer. But it's interesting. If you look at the Brooklyn Nets this season, according to Stapmuse, in the eight games with Kyrie, they won two times and had the 29th best defense. In the four games without him, they had three wins and were first in defense. And by the way, with him, 18th in offense, without him, seventh in offense. It's interesting, right? we view him as such a magical offensive presence. But one of the things that's always been really off-putting to me about Kyrie,

he's not a good distributor. Steph Curry is, Chris Paul is, is that Kyrie is that guy we've all played with at the YMCA. You give it to him on the wing and you never get the ball back. Is that Kyrie, to me, is not a winning player. He's just a really gifted player. And, you know, if you told me I get Kyrie or Westbrook as a player, I'd take Kyrie because it's more of a shooter's league. But Kyrie is so poor defensively.

And his assist totals are so low. This has been one of my knocks on Kauai Leonard. Kauai Leonard gets you a bucket and gets you a stop. But he's not readily available to play. He doesn't elevate others. He doesn't pass the ball. And I think the greatest gift, that LeBron has ever given us

is his ability to elevate everybody he's ever played with. Kyrie, and the stat news has it right, Kyrie elevates Kyrie. Kevin Durant gives you an effort on the defense event. Kevin Durant, willing to distribute. Kevin Durant, a great closer. But the difference between Kevin Durant and Kyrie

isn't just they're both offensively gifted or the size. It's just to make the NBA, even defensive specialists in college to the NBA can score. Bruce Bowen was a good college score. You can't give up 26 on the defensive end. And Stapmuse, it's a very interesting sight that Brooklyn is better offensively and significantly better defensively when Kyrie's not on the floor. We fall in love with talent in basketball. You know, in football, we don't. We just fall in love with wins. Like, if a player doesn't help you win, fans don't want him.

Media doesn't want him. Coaches don't want him. But there is this sort of mythology with Kyrie is that, boy, Kyrie's a winning player. He's really a losing player who's really talented. For the record, I never root against anybody in any investment they make. I've been investing for 25 years. I love it. had some big misses, a couple of hits, mostly doubles. But FTX went insolvent. A cryptocurrency.

Ads all over the Super Bowl. Belly up. I never had a problem if somebody put money in Bitcoin. But for those of us over 40 who have invested in, say, Wall Street, real estate, bonds, those work. My question about cryptocurrency has always been, what does it give me that I don't have? My credit card works. My cash works.

The reason my iPhone is so valuable, it gives me something urgent information I can't get anywhere else. So I always looked at cryptocurrency as basically unregulated, no real need for it, and mostly 20 and 30 somethings with time on their hands. hands and not much net worth rolling the dice. It felt like a fast way to get rich. And there is no fast way to get rich outside of Powerball. NFTs, a little bit of a lark, metaverse is basically crushing Mark Zuckerberg's billion-dollar empire. Here's a rule. A lot of stuff that works financially and in life has worked since I was born and it's going to continue to work.

I know, I know, I know. You really do believe there's quick, easy ways to get rich. Not really. Even the average age of a founder on Silicon Valley in tech is in the 40s. If a 20-year-old is telling you about this new way to get rich quick, run. If you do find a way or a new platform to get rich to get rich, The truth is, you wouldn't waste a lot of your time telling anybody else about it. You'd gobble up all the resources and the wealth.

That's the thing that's always been fishy about NFT and Bitcoin. Why are you so insistent that I have to be part of it? You go invest your money in it. I'm not investing mine in it. Why are you so insistent and so bothered if I don't buy in? to your investment. I'm not telling you what stocks to invest in or what apartment complexes to buy.

Don't tell me what to do with cryptocurrency. Deep down, there was always a psychological factor. If you truly believe in something, you don't have to have it approved by other people. If you don't want to invest in Wall Street, don't. I do. I don't care. If you don't want to invest in real estate, don't. What do I care?

Bitcoin NFT guys outraged if you didn't share their optimism. Why? Because deep down, they had this fear, this insecurity. It was all a bubble and bullshit. And now you're seeing it. The angrier somebody gets at you not investing in what they love,

the greater their insecurity is about the investment. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fandul, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin. FanDuel has tons of betting options. I like the same game parlay.

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1877-7-7-1-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-coured. encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. I don't care what you'll say. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.

It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. So Joe Burrow and the Bengals, first complete game of the year is what he said.

They baked Carolina. The run game was unbelievable. I said this on the air on Fox. I said if their run game, if that's what their run game is, nobody including the chiefs is beating them. When you're in a game like that and you're just handing the ball to Joe Mixon and watching him fly down the field, it's just a whole different ball. Tell the audience basically how it changes your afternoon. Yeah, it makes my life a lot easier. That I didn't have to do a lot that game.

I was efficient. But Joe, I mean, that was offensive line was blocking great in the run game. Joe was hitting the holes. He looked like, I mean, he was as fast as I've ever seen him. And so he was running hard. He was making protection pickups. He played great. You don't get games like that in the NFL.

You may get one a year. Like you literally take a commanding lead. So again, the film, I mean, that's a team that shocked Brady. Well, on film, did you think, oh, we could have a big day running or some of it surprising. Yeah, you know, they were, in my opinion, one of the best defenses in the league. Yep. Leading up to that, you know, watching tape, they were flying around making plays and something clicked for us that game. We were kind of doing whatever we want, moving the ball up and down the field.

our play action game got going. Run game was great. So that makes it a lot easier when you jump out to a lead like that. It opens up your whole playbook. You know, Joe said you're not a quarterback. He said you have the personality of a linebacker. Your dad, I read a story that everybody in your family was a defensive guy. So when you decided I want to be an offensive guy, was it like, oh, Joe's soft.

Pretty boy. Joe is soft, pretty boy guy. Because in your family, it's all defensive dudes. Yeah, well, it was decided for me. I wanted to be a running back my first year playing football. And so they made me be the quarterback against my own wishes. Really? Yeah.

Boy, you made a – that was a good choice. Your parents were smart. Yeah. I owe that youth – Coach Sam. Coach Sam was our youth coach. He made me be the quarterback. So I owe Sam some money, I think. By the way, were you the taller kid?

I'm not at that point in my life. Not really. Oh, okay. because I was quarterback because I was tall. I came from a rural school. I was like six to in high school. The best athletes were like five, seven. So I think I just won it because genetics.

My dad was tall. So here we are halfway through. You go to a bi-week now, right? Yes. Oh, my God. So you literally, that game is over. I saw a smile on your face on like seven videos. I'm thinking, you're thinking, oh, I could just, I could.

I mean, like for you, this is the only, time for four months. You're going to sit in the couch and watch Netflix. Yeah, and it's the, you know, the bi-week feeling is a lot different feeling when you go in with a win, when you go on with a loss. So coming out of that game with a win, the way we did it, you know, is critical for everybody so we can kind of take a step back and relax and get away from football for the week.

And you will just hang out with friends. Yeah, I'll just, you know, go out to dinner maybe a couple times. but just relax. I'm not going to go anywhere. So over the course of now, this is your third season. First year, hurt, second year, Super Bowl this third year. So what is something midway point third year that you are absolutely better than, that literally this Joe Burrow would look at the first year Joe Burrow and go,

good Lord, you're way off. Stop, slow down. Like, where are you the most dramatically better? I would say just finding completions on every play. There's usually a completion to be had. It might not always get you 10, 12 yards. It can get you one yard, two yards, three yards. But I'm just better at finding the back quickly if I need to rather than trying to hold on to it and make a big play.

Is it peripheral or just tape study? I think it's just more time in the offense. And you have to have a certain kind of chemistry with the running back, too, not just the receivers knowing how he might escape the pocket to get to his checkdown. It's not always going to be like it's drawn up. They're doing a good job of finding little pockets in the zone where I can find them. When was the light comes on moment? Most quarterbacks, by the way, Joe, say year three at some point,

like the game kind of just comes down a little. Was there a week or a moment or a series or a half that happened to you? I would say second half of last season. After the by week, it started to really slow down for me and click. And again, it was just knowing teammates? Yeah, for the most part. You're just playing more football and seeing more defense. and know how different defenses can take away certain plays.

There's more reps of doing what you're doing. So, you know, my staff always looks up stuff. We have one thing in common. I went back and looked at some of your old tweets because you're not on social. And back in 2013, this is nine years ago. You said something, and I love this. It was 10.58 p.m. So your mom was probably, you probably should have been in bed.

You said, I really like magic. And I thought, okay. So I've gone to see like 20 magicians. Yeah. So have you ever gone to Vegas and seen a magician? Not in person, no. Okay. It's unbelievable. I've seen Copperfield, Chris Angel. The best magician I ever saw was Hans Clock. He's Swedish. and he literally took a dance pole, tape, a chair, and a beautiful woman. I'm not joking when I tell you this. You can look up Hans' clock on Google today.

So this woman is tied with tape on a pole sitting in a chair, beautiful woman. He has an assistant and they put up a drape over her. He's on one side, the other. He literally throws the drape up. It comes down. he's in the chair taped up in one second. I'm not shitting you. My son looked at me and said, let's get out.

My son freaked out. He's like, that's real magic. I'm like, I don't get it. It's pretty incredible what some of those guys do. Oh, it's incredible. And there's a guy named, there's another, some of these magicians,

Fox Sports hires these people for Christmas parties. I want to go through a couple other tweets because they are funny. You're not on social. I want, you to explain this. 8.43 at night, 10 years ago. Movie I can't get enough of. Dot, dot, dot, dot, Rocky 4.

Yeah. That sounds like the point of my life where I had found the Rocky movies and was watching them all at the same time. Okay. A couple nights later. What's up with Denzel Washington and train movies? He had a lot of them. He did.

Now this, now you're really connecting. Nine years ago. Noon. When in doubt, dot, dot, dot, watch SpongeBob. Sounds like some good advice for me. Okay. Oh, I like this. This is just six, seven years ago.

Richard Sherman, part of the volume, is a genius in terms of expanding his brand. He was. He really is. He's intense. One more. Okay, this is, I don't even know what these are. So I'm going to need the Midwest and you to explain this.

June 11th, 2014th, 202 p.m. I miss chicken fries. I don't know what that is. I guess I don't know about that one either. Got me. Chicken fries? So prior to this week, you guys were struggling in the run game.

It happens. A lot of times, like the Rams have struggled, it's just depletion of people. There's been like cluster injuries. Explain it to me as much as you can. When a run game struggles, is it missed assignments? If the run game struggles for four or five or six weeks, it's not just we're being overpowered.

Can you explain like why one game works and why another doesn't? Yeah, it's tough. A lot of it has to do with the defenses that you're playing. Some teams are really, really good up front and they're tough to move and they have good scheme. Other times, you know, sometimes it's on the offense, just not executing. It's, you'd love for it to be consistent, but it's never really that way. It's tough to get that going.

The defense is in this league. you're really, really good at what they do. And, you know, it all starts with stopping the run. That's what the defense has always preach. And it's tough to get it going sometimes. So Saturday night for you, I'm a huge college football fan. So LSU Bama was about as good as it gets for me. I think football at its best was designed to end games like that where a coach has to make a decision.

So in a situation like that, there's the presumption. Like I wanted LSU to go for it. My takeaway is, Frick, it's your first game against Sabin. You're at home. Yeah. Totally go for it. I mean, your takeaway on,

it's the first time I think Brian Kelly's face Saving with equal players. And I thought Brian, and what do I know? I thought Brian kind of out coach, Nick. I thought schematically it was pretty clever. Your takeaway on that game and what you've heard about Brian Kelly?

Well, I think, the decision to go for the two points, I think comes down to whether or not you feel really good about your two-point plays that you have in that week. Right. If you feel good about them, yeah, go and make it happen

and execute it, and that's what they did. But it seems like they're playing really hard for them. You know, there were a lot of points in that game. I felt like where a team could kind of tone the towel and quit. Right. And they didn't. And that's what you love to see from first year coach, my opinion.

Yeah, Jaden Daniels, I watch them a lot at Arizona State. Brian obviously knows what he's doing because he's like, he's the best version of Jaden Daniels. I love that pick play, by the way. You're not going to, at home, they're not going to call that on you. That's almost impossible to defend. Like when they called it, I'm like, you can just see it. It's like, okay, there's nothing you can do about that.

In fact, I think Bama lost a national title to Clemson on that same. Yeah. Deshawn wants to know out right yeah yeah you can't defend it when you say you have confidence in your two point plays so if you go into a game like ls u bama or in the nfl would you have four would you have like four plays and would they be rotated like could you take them week to week or do you go back six or seven weeks to hide them like there's only so many four yard plays you can do right yeah i mean that's every week you have a that's part of the reds don't break down, you have your three to one passes or three to one two point plays that you feel good about. And it's just part of your game plan. So if you have a ball between that line and it's first and 10, you're going to call one of those plays.

And certainly, you know, you feel really good about four, five, six of them. And if you hadn't called any of them and you get into that spot, you know, you might as well go do it. As a quarterback, your emotions on a play like that to win the game. First of all, very few people, even if you were a good baseball player, have ever hit a walk-off home run. You just don't get those opportunities. How many winner-lose moments in your football life have you had like that? It's tough to count now.

It depends down to the final play. Maybe two or three or four. Not a ton. Two-minute situations to win the game, you know, 15 or 20 maybe. so they're few and far between. So when you get those opportunities, you've got to go and make it happen and execute because that's what ends up winning games.

Anxiety, nerves, urgency, how do you feel? When those kind of spots pop up, that's when your heart rate slows down and all the crowd noise kind of muffled out and you just get into your zone. It's a different feeling. Okay, by the way, I've been told the Marvel movie, the Black Panther sequel, Wakanda Forever comes out this weekend. You're a Marvel guy, so are you in on that?

Very much, though. Yeah. My son said that was the best Marvel movie ever. It was pretty good. Is it? Very good. I think the original Iron Man's Iron Men would, those are my favorite, I would say. Those three of those, right?

Yeah, the first two. Is Avengers Marvel or now or DC? Avengers Marvel. Okay. I'm not, I don't really. That's like all the Avengers movies were all the movies for like 10 years, like culminating into one big two movie moment. Yes, I went to that. Yeah, no, I watched that with my son.

That was a dad son moment. First time anything, hold off, first time anything had ever been done like that in movies, it was awesome. Big Marvel guy. So you know this stuff. Were you a comic kid? Not really. I just like the movies. Yeah, I'm saying here.

Comics bored me. I was out playing wiffle ball. Okay, so you're going to take three or four days. How many days total do you have off? Nine? So we had practice today. We were in meetings yesterday, and now we're off until Monday morning.

So how many days that is seven, eight? Yeah. Finally, you very rarely get that. to sit home and watch a rival play generally, right? You're either flying somewhere, flying home. Did you see Lamar Jackson Monday? I did. They looked good.

Holy shit. Sometimes with him, it is kind of amazing, right? Like, I mean, I watch him and I'm just like, sometimes with him, I turn the sound down. I just want to watch him. I don't want to be distracted. Nobody moves like him. He just moves different than everybody else. He's more, he's faster.

He's more efficient. He's more agile. There's just something about it that it's just unique. All right. Time for Sharp or Square with Chad Millman. All odds provided by Fandul. I had a losing week. Two pushes.

One win. Two losses. I went with all underdogs. I like underdogs again. I'll give you my favorite picks of the week. I have two favorites and a lot of dogs. I think my favorite pick of the week is Seattle plus two and a half and here's why. Brady has been awful in Tampa when he plays

an off-schedule games, very much a creature of habit. Seattle is a young team. Young teams travel well, playing great defensively. Defenses travel well with a great run game. Run games travel well. I like Seattle to win. I don't think Vegas has figured out Seattle yet. They had Arizona twice as favorites over them. I watched eight quarters. Seattle was significantly better in seven of eight quarters. I think Seattle may blow out the Buccaneer Sharper Square. Totally a sharp play. This line opened at three. It's moved at two and a half. It's a neutral field game. Professional betters basically think this should be pick-em. There should not be sort of the cardiac inflation that is coming Tom Brady's way because of how he won against the Rams last week, which

everybody is seeing. If you look at the Seahawks, they are fourth overall in DVOA. Their offense is fourth in DVOA. The last five weeks, their defense is fourth in DVOA. DVOA, for those who don't know, just a very fancy way of combining all the metrics that matter to betters and putting them in one specific metric. What's really interesting about the Seattle team is they're on this long winning streak, right? The two games they've lost over the past seven weeks, Atlanta, New Orleans. Those were in the final minutes of the game. This is a team that is very good.

It is very fundamentally sound. Like you said, great defense, incredible running game now with Kenneth Walker. The challenge that everyone is thinking about is, have we reached peak Seahawks? When you're in the business of investing, you want to get out of the market before it peaks. Is this the peak of the market for the Seahawks? I don't think so. the wise guys don't think so, but start looking for that if those Seahawks do actually cover or win this game. All right, my second favorite pick of the week, Bears minus three at home. Here's why. The splits are obvious. Jared Goff, comfortable in a dome, has been very effective.

Jared Goff, discomfort on the road, awful. Chicago has found the magic sauce with Justin Fields over the last three to four games. I think Chicago wins handle. they've got some momentum. I think there's real belief in the building coaching staff through the roster in Justin Fields. I don't think Goff has that. I think you're going to see some lions start bailing here fairly quickly with a couple more losses. I like Chicago comfortably, even though they're a favorite minus three, sharper square. Totally the right side. Wise guys don't love it, mainly because they feel like this is a public play right now.

And if you look at the splits, about 85% of the tickets are covered. coming in on the Bears. But, but look, there are some spots where you can get this game at two and a half. And if you can find a two and a half, take it. I still like it at three. The Bears' rushing offense is dominant. And I don't just mean in the number of yards they are gaining game to game. I mean in every category that gamblers care about.

Yards per carry. Explosive plays of 20 plus yards. Explosive plays of 40 plus yards. First downs by the run. Touchdowns by the run. And what that means is that on first and second downs, they are moving the ball and not putting Justin Fields in bad situations, but you mentioned the play calling. The last three weeks, Justin Fields has had 21 design runs. In the first 16

games he started, he had 26 the last few weeks against the Blitz, 23 of 28 for more of the 200 yards, five touchdowns, only three sacks. Justin Fields is getting better. They are calling better plays for him. They're putting him in a better position to succeed. And by the way, those rush stats I mentioned for the Bears, the Lions defense, bottom two in the category of every single one of those categories. So the Bears short home favorites, you take it. Depending on the line, all of our odds presented by a Fanduil, I would take the Vikings plus four and a half as they transition in Buffalo, probably to a backup. This offense is completely Josh Allen reliant.

They have no running game. and they won't have the deep ball because the Vikings pass rush, like the Jets, will get to that five-step drop quarterback spot. T.J. Hawkinson is a much bigger addition than people think. This is not a prime time game, or I'd stay away from it with Kirk Cousins. It's an early game. It's your 1 o'clock East Coast game. This is a team now.

Kirk tends to be a little bit of a checkdown guy. Remember, he's had, you know, Stefan Diggs complained that he wasn't getting the ball enough. You give him a great tight end. He had nine catches the first time Kirk had T.J. Hawkinson. This is going to be a huge, huge. If you play fantasy football and I don't, this kid's going to get eight to ten catches a week. I'm going to take the points in Minnesota Sharper Square. Yeah, of course you're going to take the points here. I would say that the more it moves down, this gets to three and a half or three by Sunday, you kind of want to pass on this game. Josh Allen, you mentioned him, accounts for 81% of the offense for the Buffalo Bills.

They do not have a running game. The challenge with the Vikings, they have been outplayed by every single opponent. They're one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. It happened again this past weekend against the commanders. And they didn't cover, by the way, the spread in that open to three and a half. I was telling everybody, take the commanders to three and a half. The Vikings get lucky in every game. Is this the week where they can actually outplay someone because Josh Allen will either be hurt and not playing or be hurt and limited?

You take the Vikings right now, but it's a scarier play. It's not one of the five I would play. So here's a favorite, a big favorite, and I like them. The most concerning part about Brandon Staley is this. His side of the ball has gotten worse. There are reports that he's losing veteran players. Justin Herbert now is regressing. The Niners healthier with extra time at home.

run the ball. The Chargers are dreadful against the run. Herbert's going to watch the game. He's barely going to be on the field. With McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell, I think this is a time of possession nightmare for the Chargers. I'm going to take San Francisco minus 7 at home, Sharper Square. So it's interesting, right?

As you know, me and my BFF Simon Hunter, we have a segment on the Favorites podcast, on the Volume podcast network. where we will get professional betters that call us. We'll do the podcast twice a week on Tuesday and on Thursday. On Wednesday, we get calls from professional betters to give us feedback on the games that we had talked about on Tuesday that we then can talk about in the podcast on Thursday.

Number one conversation point was the Niners Chargers, because Simon and I liked the Chargers at Plus 7. The Wise guys have come in on the Niners for a pretty significant amount of of money. So you're right here. I disagree. I think because of the time of possession you just mentioned, I think that seven points with a team like the chargers in which decision making yields such high variance, you never know if they're going to be able to backdoor cover. And it's too big of a number to put yourself out there on the Niners at minus seven when they're going to mainly want to run the ball with Debo Samuel back and now Christian McCaffrey.

So you're on the right side. Personally, it gives me a little bit of the hebie-jeebies. Finally, Steelers plus one and a half. Mike Tomlin, desperation. Kenny Pickett, I think for rookie quarterbacks, extra time is essential. Tomlin's a great underdog coach. Saints, bad loss, short time.

They're a mess at quarterback. None of it's working. Steelers feels like one of the more obvious plays of the week, Sharper Square. Totally sharp. This game opened at three. It's down to one and a half. Mike Tomlin is optimistic that T.J. Watt is going to come back this week. This team, this defense is top five defense when T.J. Watt is playing. It's a yard per play better as a defense when T.J. Watt is playing. Then you talk about Kenny Pickett. Look, he came in against the Jets, nearly won them that game. That performance looks a lot better now thinking about how good the Jets are. Then he held a close against Miami. He beat Tom Brady in the Buccaneers. He's had two weeks to get into the offense, has a buy week,

very enthusiastic about Kenny Pickett. He just looks like a gamer, right? He is not afraid. He's going to find ways to get out of the pocket. They're going to put him in a better position than they have been. But also, this is a Mike Tomlin, rah, rah, spot. Through his career, after week five, he is 71% against his spread when he is an underdog.

All right? This is when you play Mike Tomlin. Love it. Okay, we always close with two. First, a game, I'm not betting. You could talk me into it. My gut feeling is, you told me that five line is, it's a nowhere, no man's land line.

Five doesn't mean anything. So my takeaway is, okay, I'm just going to take the team. I think it's going to win. I would take Dallas over Green Bay. if it was a three, if it's a seven, it changes everything. It's a five. It doesn't matter. I think Dallas is much better.

Where would you go on this? Green Bay. Wise guys love Green Bay. If this game were three, it would be lined right. But there's about two points of value. Green Bay is very unlucky this season. And they are suffering in the red zone and they are suffering on fourth downs. Every other category, they're an average team.

It's highlighted because they're, They don't have a lot of players because players keep getting hurt because Aaron Rogers, everyone thinks he's burnt and all these kinds of things. But they're still in a very average team. And the way this game is being handicapped right now, the odds makers are saying they think the cowboys are the same team when healthy as the Buffalo Bills. Because remember, the bills just played the Packers about two weeks ago. They beat him by 10 points. The way the lines are matching up, they're essentially the same. The Cowboys are favored by the same as the bills were against the Packers when they were playing in Buffalo, right?

So what you're getting is a team that is inflated because they're playing against a Packers team that is undergoing so much controversy. So the wise guys are going to be all over the Packers. I am all over the Packers. Finally, a game you're betting that I missed on. It's so gross. Oh, not one of these. Yeah. You're going to look at me and be like, why do I even listen to you?

Why do I have you on the show you? Is it Broncos? Wise guys love the Broncos. This line has moved from three to two and a half. I will be betting on the Broncos. Jacksonville Jaguars plus nine and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. Come on. Come on, Colin.

Listen to me. Listen to me. The Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, in this situation, 12 and 17 is more than a touch. down favorite against the spread in his career. This season at home, they barely beat the Raiders. They barely beat the Chargers. They barely beat the Titans with Malik Willis, not even throwing not even not even not even throwing any to any route wide receivers. They lost to the bills. The Jags have been good all season. They like the Packers, like other teams, have had very bad luck in the worst possible spots. I think they found a little bit of a.

success last week with Travis A-T-N. They are starting to figure out who they are. Doug Peterson has said, we need to get Christian Crock the ball more. When they were really successful early in the year, they were doing it nine, ten times a day. Again, they went away from that, and then they went back to it last week. He had nine targets, eight catches.

I expect more of the same. Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars as heavy underdogs against the Chiefs. God, nine and a half points. It's a lot. Do it. I don't, you know, I'll say this, though. I don't mind watching the Jags because I'm into Trevor Lawrence, and they've got a nice offense.

I don't mind watching them. Fun team. They're not Houston. They're not Indy. All right. Sharper Square, Chad Millman appears to be at some fancy resort in the southwest part of the country. The Volume.

Make sure to check out the Dremont Green show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy Mee, McGready, make sure download the Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network.

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