The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Rodgers Trade Buzz, Matt Mosley on Cowboys Disappointment, Dak Debacle + AFC/NFC Championship Bets

Episode Date: January 28, 2023

This is Prime Cuts! The best of The Colin Cowherd Podcast. First, Colin’s top takes on the biggest reason for another Cowboys playoff disappointment, why now is the time for the Packers to trade Aaron Rodgers, and why he likes the Panthers hiring of fired former Colts HC Frank Reich. Next, longtime Dallas Cowboys writer - and host of The Doomsday Podcast - Matt Mosley on if Jerry Jones skipping a post-playoff loss radio hit is a big deal, why Sean Payton isn’t an option, if Mike McCarthy or Kellen Moore deserves the blame for the Cowboys comically bad final play, if Dallas can improve their roster with limited cap space, why the Cowboys Twitter account would apparently rip Dak, and if the Dak/Cowboys window is closed. Finally, Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Wild Card Weekend picks are "sharp" or "square" for Niners/Eagles, Bengals/Chiefs. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the test content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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First, though, my top takes of the week. 46 million viewers watch the Cowboys and the 49ers on Fox. It's one of the most watched divisional round games of all time. When gambling, sports gambling was legalized, I said, my only really concern of it is now the constant belief by degenerates who have to validate their betting losses is, oh, the games are rigged. Folks, if baseball was rigged, the Yankees would end up in every world series. If the NBA was rigged, the Knicks and Lakers wouldn't be a mess for now a decade straight. And if football was rigged, the Dallas Cowboys would not be as inept as they are as a playoff team. The Cowboys are automatic ratings.

46 million viewers. popular NBA teams in the conference championships or as they call them in the NBA, the conference finals, get like six million viewers, one fifth of that. The Cowboys don't win playoff games

because the Niners have a better roster. And the reason the Niners have the better roster is because they pay the right players. They have a better left tackle. They have deeper wide receivers. They have better line. They have two legitimate corners. They're better at safety. The Cowboys tend to pay too much, pay too early, and pay the wrong people. They paid linebacker Jalen Smith. A year later, they had to get rid of him.

They overpaid for a running back, Zeke. They paid Dak more than he's worth. If you start looking at the Cowboys' biggest salaries, running back, linebacker, that's not what the best teams do. Dallas has some individual star players, but they don't have a single great unit. The Niners have several. The Eagles have several. The Chiefs have a couple. The Bengals have a few. The Dallas Cowboys are out because they have often paid the wrong positions and players

more than their worth. And next year it's worse. Dalton Schultz, free agent, Zeke Dak, massive cap hit. Zeeke next year will be the number two running back cap hit in the league. He is not a top 10 running back. Dak will be the number two quarterback cap pit. He's not a top 10 quarterback. Come on.

He's not. So the games aren't rigged and the cowboys are where they are for a reason. Dove Clyman, he is a reporter, NFL reporter, is saying the Packers are now exploring trades for Aaron Rogers to the, the AFC. Makes sense they don't want to have to face him. I get it. It'd be humiliating to face him in a playoff game.

This way, if you do face him, it's probably in a Super Bowl. I think it's really smart by Green Bay to consider this for a lot of reasons. Number one, Aaron would not get to a Super Bowl in the AFC. It's too crowded. Too many good teams. Number two, this roster is capable in the NFC North of winning. without Aaron if Jordan loves a B to a B minus quarterback. Consider the additions needed for Green Bay.

So it's pretty good roster. They could use an edge rusher, a receiver, and a tight end. And maybe an offensive tackle at some point, though they address the offensive line in last draft. If you get an additional one and a two for Aaron Rogers, you can literally, and Green Bay has a history of drafting pretty well and developing exceptionally well. Green Bay in the first two rounds can essentially wrap up their needs in the draft.

Yes, Aaron's a dead cap hit, but Jordan Love doesn't cost anything. So it's a wash. I just think it's time. I think when people ask for concessions in any job, if they're an elite performer, I think companies will adjust. Aaron now is not giving you the offseason commitment. He's not getting you playoff Ws. He's now really expensive and not terribly flexible in terms of his willingness to work with a new offense, new schemes, new players. I just think it's time.

I don't even think it's a big risk. Remember, when they moved off FARV for Aaron Rogers, Farrv was arguably the most beloved player in the NFL along with maybe Peyton Manning. Aaron's not. There are a lot of people in Green Bay that are over, over Aaron Rogers. I think a lot of people feel like he's held them a little bit hostage last couple of years. Now, Jordan loves not as good as Aaron Rogers, but don't forget, Aaron's first year, he won six games as a starter. So it was bumpy.

And also, Farve within a year was winning a lot of games for Minnesota. If you ship Aaron to the AFC, there's not a lot of open divisions now that Jacksonville is a real team. Not a lot of wide open divisions. Where would Aaron go in the AFC if you're fearful of facing him again? He wouldn't be favored in the division with Belichick and Josh Allen, Mahomes' division. He wouldn't be, to me, favored in the Joe Burrow division. and I don't think he'd be favored, honestly, against Jacksonville. Jacksonville's going to shore up that offensive line.

They've got more weapons. They've got a highly capable offensive coach in a league that's pivoted in that direction. So I think moving Aaron to the AFC, and what do you need? Give me a first this year, a second next year, a third the following year. I'm good. Aaron's 38, about to be 39. He's not playing forever. That's the other thing.

If it takes Aaron a year to kind of get up to speed with Vrabel's offense or Robert Salas' offense, Titans' jets, respectively, Aaron's only got about three years left. So it makes a ton of sense to me. I don't think it's a scary proposition. The Vikings are not going 11-0 next year in one-score games. The Bears are a wreck offensively. Don't even know if they have the right coach. and the Lions haven't won the division since 1993.

Now's the time. It's really the perfect time. You can still get several top picks for Aaron Rogers. And this roster in Green Bay should have made the playoffs anyway if Aaron would have committed to the off season and the rookie receivers. So I want to touch on something that I think kind of runs counterintuitive to what a lot of people think. Good people get fired all the time.

Mark Cuban was fired. Howard Stern was fired. There are cuts in staffing. You know, I see stories where tech companies are laying off 10,000 people. Those are good employees. When I started the volume, one of the first breaks I got was that COVID had decimated many of these large. media companies. And some of my employees, many of them here at the volume of our 27, 28 employees, worked at ESPN, DeZone, NBC Sports, CBS Sports. Very, very talented people. Just companies had to make

budgets. There were some financial shortfalls, expectations. You know how it works at big companies. So we start with that. And this is true in sports. is that take coaching. The Kansas City Chiefs fired Marv Levy. He went on to get to four Super Bowls with the bills. Many of you may remember this. The Jags fired Tom Coughlin. He went on to beat Belichick and Brady and out-coach them in two Super Bowls.

So this happens. Ty Lou got fired by the Cavs. He got after like an 0-and-6 start. Ty-Loo is a top 7-8 coach in the NBA, easily, maybe top four or five. So when Frank Reich was fired by the Colts, it was a mistake by the organization. And I'll give you a little background on that. So we would all admit that about 70, 75% of the NFL right now is coach quarterback. That's good.

You can have flaws in other places. So Andrew Luck with Frank Reich, he had him for a year. How did Frank do with Andrew? Andrew Luck had missed the previous season due to a injury. His first and last year with Frank Reich, Andrew Luck had his career best in completion percentage, passer rating, 39 TDs, 15 picks,

comeback player of the year and made the Pro Bowl. He had his most efficient year, Andrew Luck did, with Frank Reich. Philip Rivers, from the previous year with the Chargers, went 5 and 11, with Frank Wright won 11 and 5. His passer rating went from 88 to 97. His interceptions, always an issue with Rivers, went from 20 to 11. Philip Rivers had his most efficient year in the last several with Frank Reich. Let's go to Carson Wentz. Now you roll your eyes at Carson Wentz.

but the one year that Frank Reich had Carson Wins. He went from 3-8-1 with the Eagles as a starter to 9-and-8. He went from a 16-touchdown 15-pick ratio to 27 TDs and 7 picks. His passer rating jumped from 72 to 94.6. So three different quarterbacks. Andrew Luck, Phil Affirmers, and Carson Wentz had significant upgrades in efficiency completion percentage and turnovers dropped. And the Colts fired him.

The Jacks fired Tom Coughlin. The Cowboys moved off Jimmy Johnson. The Browns slash Ravens moved off Bill Belichick. Marve Levy got bounced by the chiefs. Frank Reich is a really big. good coach. Carolina got a good one. They have an excellent defense specifically in the front seven with talented young corners in the back end. DJ Moore is a nice receiver. They got to rebuild the old line a little, not terrible, get themselves a quarterback. I think Carolina stole the Indianapolis

Colts mistake. And this all goes back to the meddling of Jim Ursay. If I said to you, meddling owners in the NFL, the last. decade. Four jump out to me. The old Al Davis, Dan Snyder, Jerry Jones, and recently in the last year, Jim Mersey. The NFL conference championships this Sunday, you can enjoy more thrills than a two-minute drill with a no sweat, same game parlay from Fandul, America's number one sports book. Doesn't matter if you're new to Fandul or already have an account. You'll get free bets back if your NFL same game parlay doesn't hit. Same game parlayes are the perfect way to combine your bets,

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Visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Matt Mosley co-host the Doomsday Podcast with a feisty edwarder, long-time Fox Sports ESPN writer. Okay. Jerry Jones canceled his weekly radio hit. Matt, that's something. He's not prone to do that. That's something, right?

Did he not want to defend Dak Prescott? You know, I do think this is uncommon most of the time. He will sort of go into hiding at times right after the season. And he's been known to kind of stay in hiding. and last year he did something similar, and he kind of left Mike McCarthy twisting in the wind. And that allowed him to eventually be able to keep Dan Quinn. I don't think this is the reason this time around

for him not showing up for his weekly hit. And I think Jerry, what he does is he goes on like a geese hunt, and there's a place in Arkansas, and he and the family, they hole up, and he likes to get away. and kind of think of the next moves and everything. And he's just not ready to talk about this anymore. He defended Dak after the game. He said McCarthy's fine.

So in a sense, I think in his mind, he's already done that. And now he can take some time and get away for a little bit. And there could be changes because Kellyn Moore's interviewing with the Panthers, despite Steve Smith saying after that last play, why would you ever interview Kellyn Moore, cancel the interview? but Steve Smith is not in charge of that interview process. So, I mean, there's a chance that Jerry could be losing both coordinators. And so you and I always end up talking about McCarthy.

This literally could become all about Mike McCarthy. To the point, could Mike McCarthy, could Jerry make a decision to say, Mike, sink or swim? There's a lot of moving parts here. The one thing I could tell you probably for sure is, I don't think Jerry's entertaining the idea of Sean Payton. I think we can probably rule that one out. Yeah, Sean wants control. Bill Parcells did.

Jimmy Johnson did. I've always felt that Jerry likes to be necessary. And he feels more necessary with Mike McCarthy than he would Sean Payton. Sean Payton, Parcells, Jimmy, don't make you necessary. They're not people that need your business acumen or your business acumen or are drafting acumen. You know, and this is, I think Jerry feels necessary. He saved Mike McCarthy.

Mike McCarthy wasn't getting interviews. He was being blamed for the Aaron Rogers divorce. Jason Garrett didn't get many interviews. He's on NBC. He felt like he was a son. He was saving him. I think Jerry's had always had that feeling. I think that's why he sometimes overpays for players.

He feels an importance in their life journey. Sean Payton doesn't make Jerry feel necessary. No, and he loves Sean, but Jerry doesn't respect coaches is really the bottom line. He doesn't pay the kind of money. He will pay, I mean, and fine money, but the bottom line is the thought of trading draft picks for a head coach makes him laugh. Like in his mind, that would be a baffling thing to do. And I do think you're on to something when Jerry likes comfortable hires, Wade Phillips, Mike McCarthy, and he just kind of likes people that'll kind of do their thing.

Let Jerry be Jerry. And Sean, Sean would be okay managing Jerry because he knows him so well. In fact, Sean would be better at that than Bill. And Bill really wasn't that bad at it when he was here. Jerry just kind of went away. And that was a weird thing. And I don't think he wants to go back to a place like that. But I do think you're right.

I think it's a good way to put it. That Jerry does need to feel necessary. But also Jerry fills the knee. And when I say he doesn't respect coaches. Well, you saw it. You go back to Jimmy Johnson. and his famous statement that I could find 500 coaches with his talent to do what Jimmy did. It's an infamous statement.

But somewhere in the back of his mind, he still kind of thinks like that. And again, that's how you end up with a Mike McCarthy. Someone who has championship skins on the wall with winning a world title. But so he knew it was a, it was an okay, it was a defensible hire. But it wasn't a knock it out of the park hire. Jimmy Johnson tweeted the final play of the game was dumb. It was ill-advised and poorly constructed. Does Jimmy still hold weight?

I mean, that's in Dallas. I mean, when Jimmy says that, what's the reaction? Well, I mean, he still has everybody's ear, and we all love to see what he says. but I don't think it really, nothing, you know, really bothers Jerry. Jerry ignores him to the point of leaving him out of the Ring of Honor. And so there's just a, you know, there's just usually a large disconnect there. And Jimmy loves getting the sharp stick out and taking it to Jerry.

And then he's been doing it for 25 years or whatever, or, you know, 28 years since whenever he left. So, no, I do think people are interested and, you know, what it did is it just, it just, it goes into the sort of the lack of credibility. When you do something like that, it's just, again, it's not the end-all, be-all. Like, I don't think you fire a head coach off of the last play that had no chance in the first place. It's just, it just looks silly. and it makes you look sort of a Mickey Mouse, you know, when you line up and try to do something like that and get your poor running back, you got it.

It was a good snap. I think Zinc's got to anchor better. He's got to learn how to anchor better at center. But again, what does it remind you of? All those old bloopers reels we used to love. And I don't know, you know, the NFL Follies or whatever we called that. That's what that looked like. So it kind of eats away at the credibility of Kellyn and Mike, you know, in the whole gang. But I think what they'll do,

when they say make Dak friendly, they're going to put a new voice in his year. And I think that'll be interesting to see who that ends up be. And it might be, it could be Mike McCarthy. He would never admit this. But if Kellan Moore got another job, job. I think deep down, Mike McCarthy would be happy and he would make a move and try to convince Jerry, let me do this. Dan Quinn's a good coach, certainly done a good job hiring a defensive coach in this day and age. Seven of the last eight coaches left in football were offensive coaches. Sean McDermott was the last defensive coach standing and laid an absolute freaking egg. that was maybe the most ill-conceived offensive game plan with a great quarterback I've seen in the playoffs in years.

It's one thing if Daniel Jones struggles. It's another one. Josh Allen is three and out at his first drive, and they have deep balls up the sideline in a snowstorm is not a game plan. It's winging it. It's calling plays. So I think Dan Quinn will be around at least for another year. You know, they're in a really weird situation where Dalton Schultz contest the market. Tony Pollard contests the market. Zeke is wildly overpaid.

I said this in the preamble to you is that, you know, when you look at why the Cowboys are the Cowboys, they've often paid too early or too often for average players. They paid Zeke too early, DAC too much. Jalen Smith too early and too much. You don't pay linebackers in this day and age. Safeties, linebackers. You know, Seattle's finding that out when they have too high-priced safeties. Buffalo's finding it out.

Buffalo's offensive lines of disaster, but they've got great linebackers and safeties. Is that it's going to be an interesting offseason. If they need another receiver, Dalton Schultz could be gone. Gallup has proven to be a three, and at times, I'm not sure he's that. What do you think personnel-wise, franchise tag-wise, what does the off-season look like? Well, I think it's going to be an old Romo-friendly type deal.

You used to hear that terminology, and I think they're going to bring that one back to make this thing DAC friendly. This season got away from Dak. He got in a bad way. He says all the right things. He's a great podium guy. as you've talked about, but he didn't get it done. And so this offseason will be about putting DAC back together and finding, okay, why did this happen? Why did a guy that was sort of known for managing games and taking care of the ball,

all of a sudden have a huge turnover problem? So a lot of that's going to be about that. Now, when I say DAC friendly, I think that it's going to be, they're going to try to, to bring in more talent around him. Gallup didn't, you know, that didn't work out this season. They had to go to Ty Wight Hilton. CD was all they had.

Schultz is probably gone. We don't know about Pollard because of the injury. There are people that are going to put in their face right now. They're already doing it. You know, why did you, you didn't get anything for Amari. You had two stud wide receivers and you didn't get anything for them. You got a fifth round pick for Amari Cooper. So that's what you're going to hear this offseason is how do we make this thing

Dak friendly and who can we bring in to build him up and to add more firepower? Because at the end of the season, here's what they're going to do. They're going to look back at these interceptions. What they're going to tell you this offseason is a lot of it wasn't Dak's fault. I don't believe that. I mean, did you see the look in Dak's eye after those two picks the other day? Did you see that kind of deer in headlights? Like, I don't know what's happening.

I don't know how this happened. But because they pay him so much and because he's their franchise quarterback, it's just like with Tony, they're going to have to, they're going to have to make it not his problem. It's we didn't do enough to help DAC. We've got to do enough to help Dak get over the hump. And so that's what this whole thing is going to become about. So the Cowboy Twitter account,

and this is very rare, took a shot at DAC. Now, I saw a story today that suggested Jerry okayed that. How's that playing in Dallas? What's the rumor in Dallas about that? Because you don't see team Twitter accounts ripping star players, even after bad games. First of all, the idea that somebody went to Jerry with a headline is ludicrous. Okay, I mean, I've been in newspapers my whole life and websites and all that kind of stuff. That's a joke.

Like anybody who says, well, Jerry's fine with that. Now, the thing I could defend him on, if you kind of see, it's like a link to a story. The story is probably has more nuance, and it's not some kind of attack on deck, but it just looks strange. And it is kind of funny that even after all this blowback and people are like, what are the Cowboys doing, they just kind of left it up there. So I don't think, I would say this, though, Dak is kind of going to go away for a while.

We won't hear from him, but he was made very aware of it. I assure you that, that Dak's people and anybody has said, boy, Dak, look how the Cowboys took care of you after the game by leaving this tweet up there. Now, again, from a journalist standpoint, the tweet, the headline was sort of attached to a story. And like, whoever wrote that story didn't write the headline. Somebody from the Cowboys put that out there. And then suddenly, what surprises me, Colin, is that somebody, and I know all the people in charge over there, they're good people.

Like, somebody just didn't delete it. Go, this is causing a firestorm. But maybe we should admire them for saying, you know what? I mean, we make fun of people when they delete something, right? They just left it out there. And who knows? But the thought of Jerry having any say or are caring in the least about what the website tweets out is beyond crazy. I kind of feel like the Buffalo Bills and the Dallas Cowboys, this was kind of the spot.

Buffalo because Mahomes is hurt. Josh Allen's big salary kicks in. Buffalo's defense is going to have to probably get rid of a safety, a linebacker. This was the best of the Buffalo Bills roster. It may not look as Josh Allen's contract kicks in. It may not look this nice. Remember, Kansas City had to get rid of Tyree Kill. Cheverius wore the corner.

I mean, once the big money kicks in, Cowboys had to let go of, Amari Cooper, the Titans with Tanale, had to get let go of A.J. Brown. So I feel like Buffalo, this was the best the roster was going to be. Now it's going to have to be leaner. And I look at Dallas and I say to myself, okay, they can't get out of this Zeeck thing. They can't get out of this DAC contract. Dalton Schultz is leaving. Tyron Smith is expensive and old.

Is there an argument this is the best of the roster? Well, this was the best year to break through. I don't know. I think they might be able to do some things to help the offense. I don't know. I mean, in a weird sort of way, the injury to Pollard may help them. My Pollard's a great player. How do you, he was going to get huge money on the open market for a running back, obviously.

Right. The value for a running back is not what it is in other positions. But there were people. Yeah, there are people that were going to be very interested in it. him. Well, on the open market, it might have been even more than that. I mean, he might have got 10 to 12. But now nobody knows what to make of this injury. And this is where Jerry's really good. Jerry can come in and go, Tony. We brought you in here. We've given you this platform. And Jerry loves to make that argument to players. If you're if you retire a cowboy, you know, you're going to have a job the rest of your life because you were a cowboy and all this kind of stuff. Zeeks probably gone. I mean, are you really going to keep paying Zeeke to be a short yardage running back? I mean, there's just really, there's really no great place for him.

I mean, there's no, there's no great fit. There's also not a market for Zique, is there? I don't, I don't think so. I mean, they're trapped. He's, he's so valuable to them just from, Dak loves him, this sort of leadership. I don't really think that transcend. That wouldn't translate to some of these other places.

I'm trying to think of where some people that have coached him have gone on to. But no, no. He's just, I mean, there's no more tread on the tire. Just look at the numbers. He was averaging 2.1 yards per carry. Pollard was their home run hitter. Now, Pollard, as our taping, just in the past hour or so, he had this surgery. The fibula, that's going to heal on its own.

As I understand it, The ankle, they had to do some surgery on, he's going to be ready by training cap next year. So, but again, we don't know what he's going to look like. Is he going to have the same burst? Is it going to take him a while to get back up to speed? This is the killer for the Cowboys is you've got a rookie quarterback on the other sideline in San Francisco. You hold them to 19 points. He's good.

I like Brock Purdy, but he didn't. It's not like he was just unbelievable in that game. he made a couple of really good throws, but you hold them to 19 points, and your huge money quarterback goes out there, the first half is just like he's walking in the, I mean, just in the woods or something, like, hey, man, what's going on here?

Oh, man, Santa Clara is nice. And he's just, he's throwing picks. And he could have thrown two more. I mean, that's just demoralizing to a organization. That's why Trayvon Diggs, J.R.R. curse. DeMarcus Lawrence, you could sort of watch their body language after that game. That's not a, we're all in this together.

That body language, even Dan Quinn, he's got to be thinking, we did everything we could. And we were knocking on the door. And the sad things for Cowboys fans and the people who cover them and everything, we all think it was nine to nine. Colin, there might have been a moment in your mind where you thought, hmm, maybe the Cowboys win this single, the NEOC title game. I would say 80 to 90% of all Cowboys fans of the people who cover them were just sitting there like, okay, how did they lose this game? Now, which direction is it going to?

Is it going to be another interception? It's going to be a long drive. How are they going to lose it? There's nobody that truly felt like they were going to break through. And it was nine to nine. I mean, it was right there for the taking. So I think you can improve the roster. But the problem is, I don't know if you ever have a better shot.

I mean, San Francisco's loaded, but they don't have the right. I mean, they've got a third string quarterback. Are we all going to sit here and jump? Now, he may go on to win the Super Bowl and we'll go, all right, Brock Purdy, he's going to be their quarterback in the next five, ten years. I'm not ready to say that. Well, here's the Cowboys dilemma is both the Niners. they don't pay that quarterback for three more years so they can keep their players.

They'll probably move Trey Lance and the Eagles aren't moving. They're not moving any of their players because they don't pay Jalen Hertz yet. So Dallas is going to face those two stacked rosters again next year. And my takeaway is Dallas will be less talented next year. Now, if Dallas, you know, they're a playoff team,

so they're not going to be in a great draft position. And most of your NFL GMs have told me for years, You run out of first run players somewhere between the 15th and the 18th pick. So Dallas, if you're at the end of the first round, you know, it's kind of no man's land. But I do think there's tight ends and wide receivers in the first two picks for Dallas that can absolutely elevate the offense. But the Tony Pollard situation's rough because I think they, you can't let Dolton Schultz walk and not go get a tight end. You can't. And you got to get an inexpensive tight end.

Well, the first and second round have about four. And, you know, tight ends have historically dropped in the draft. George Kittle was a fifth round pick. So I think Dallas is in a weird spot where they've really got to hit some home runs in the first three picks offensively. They also need a second corner. Now, you can get that in later rounds. Seattle did this year. They got a corner in the fifth and the six round starters.

But I do feel like this was the year. I mean, Brock Purdy by next year, Matt, he's going to have multiple starts. This was the chance to get him. And by the way, they did. The defense did get him. It's not like they went out there and raced up and down the field. They got 19 points. And the Cowboys go out there and just, you know, and put up 12 points.

So you're right. It was this game, this was so getable. and it just kind of makes you think that as it's currently constructed with this head coach, now, there are people who still think Jerry could make a change at head coach. I mean, he loves to shake things up and make people uncomfortable. So I do think Jerry might enjoy the shakeup of two new coordinators. I don't think he's going to do anything to Mike McCarthy. but it's it really is uh i i i think he's hold up thinking of a way and thinking of a plan

and he's the ultimate salesman so he's thinking of a mantra or what can we roll out there now the old romo friendly maybe he'll go with the dack friendly or whatever but this will be about the redemption of dac this is our guy he's totally fine he's a great quarterback, and he just had a bad season. And maybe it was, he was rusty after missing the five games. But the thing is, he missed five games. He still threw 17 interceptions. And people say, oh, mad, not all these things were his fault. That's true. That's true. But there were a lot of pick sixes, three pick sixes since week 15. They've got a quarterback problem. And there's no easy fix. I mean, everybody here wants a new quarterback, new headcount.

No, none of that's happening. I mean, you can't move off that contract, so all you can do is try to build around him. But you know, you know Jerry. Jerry right now is, he's putting together before he can actually go do some things in free agency, he has to put a marketing plan together. And before he shows up in his comfortable meeting with everybody at the owner's meetings or wherever the next, the combine, wherever he speaks next. Because he will sometimes go into hiding for a little while.

He's going to come out with a whole new thing. And it's going to be about how close they were. Maybe he can use this powered injury or something. But what you're about to see is a circling of the wagons around deck like you can't even believe. And that's because they have no other alternative. What are they going to do? Rip them. I mean, it's just they're going to put everything in DAC.

You can fire your head coach, but right now you can't do anything about your quarterback. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite

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I guess I got the Jags to late cover, which is what we predicted. But let's start 49ers at Eagles. I'll throw out kind of the two things that jump out to me. Greg CoSell, who's my favorite guest maybe ever on the show, says the last two starts are starting to show some tendencies with Brock Pruty. They're now on film. He's scrambling backwards. He now goes consistently to his left.

He has been incapable of delivering on some really nice, schemed and scripted plays. There are now, we are seeing limitations, and the Eagles are seeing them. Philadelphia has got 17 players who are either Pro Bowl starters or alternatives. At home, significantly more dynamic quarterback. You know, rookies in this spot have been disastrous. McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, missing practice. I'd probably swallow the points and take Philadelphia, sharper square. I would say generally sharp.

The challenge with the playoffs, as you just noted, is someone's going to find a reason to like something. And so this line opened it around Pick on Sunday night. Literally that lasted less than five minutes. Got up to one and a half two. I bet Eagles minus two Sunday night. It's landed at two and a half. Most wise guys have this power rated at three.

So you're still getting a half point of value. What's troubling if you're an Eagles backer is you've seen the most. money come in on the Eagles, and it really hasn't hit the three, which means that professional money continues to come in on the Niners, enough that the books are wary of getting to the three because they'll just get pounded with money on the Niners. Schematically on the field, couldn't agree with you more personally. I think you're starting to see some, as Kosell pointed out, and I, agree. He's one of my favorite guests on your show. He has pointed out that Brock Purdy is starting

to show a little bit of why he might not be a Hall of Famer yet. And I think that you're taking a rookie playing his third game on the road in the NFC title game. And it's not Vegas that he's going to where one of his games were. It's not Seattle against Gino Smith in a defense that was really starting to struggle. It's Philadelphia. Like, it's Philadelphia with an historically great pass rush and historically great offensive line that is getting players downfield and they have tremendous amount of yards before contact numbers.

So how do you not take the Eagles here? It feels like exactly the right side. I love the Eagles in this. But maybe I've talked myself into it. I've heard a lot of people say they like the Niners. But the majority of wise guys are agreeing with you. Well, here's something else to remember. That cowboy team went into the second half without Tony Pollard,

a kicker who is in his head. And Dallas was on the road. And let's be honest, Michael Gallup, it's, I would submit to you, he's not a two. He's a three. So Mike McCarthy, I think,'s done mostly a very good job. But they didn't dust the Cowboys off. And Zeke at this point is a short yardage back. They had one home run hitter on offense and the Niners knew it, C.D. Lamb. It was a very, very limited offense they were facing. Yeah. It's a different game with Tony Pollard completely.

because they were playing it close in that game. And Dak Prescott was terrible. It was really bad. So now you're on the road. A.J. Brown. Smith. There's a conveyor belt of quality tight ends for Philadelphia. Sanders. Jalen Hertz.

It's very likely you will play now from behind. Also, if you look at Philadelphia, now this is my concern with Philadelphia. Let me throw this at you. Okay. So Kyle Shanahan is now 7 and 0 with his third string quarterback. That's pretty impressive. Oh, yeah.

Philadelphia's story to this point is GM Howie Roseman. Ceresariani doesn't get any credit for the roster build. And nor does he get a ton of credit for this fact. When Jalen Hertz was out and very capable backup, Gardner inch you more than capable, upper third of backups and win games. So the roster, that's Rosemary. Jalen Hertz when he's gone, that's when coaching really matters. You don't get the juice at Jalen, right?

Like Kyle Shanahan winning with Brock Purdy, that's not a Brock Purdy story as much as it is, a roster compilation and a Kyle Shanahan story. So you take out Jalen Hertz with this roster of. 17 Pro Bowl or alternates. They don't win with Gardner Minshu, a capable backup. So what I'm saying is, Kyle Shanahan and Nick Sariani, let's not elevate Nick,

who got crushed in the playoffs last year and beat a completely outman Giants team. I said today on the show, I like Nick. I was wrong on Nick. But if the second half of this game, Shanahan was playing chess to checkers, you wouldn't be shocked, right? Right? So that's where I'm a little like, I saw him without jail him.

It wasn't like he was a chess master, right? It's so interesting you look at it from that point of view. A couple things. One, I loved the video the other day of Nick Seriani on the sideline yelling it, I don't know who when he was going for two or lining up to go for two after one of the touchdowns yelling, I know what I'm fucking doing. I worry and I'm, you know, being a little silly, but I do worry when there's a coach who feels like he needs to be yelling that to someone on his sideline.

And that is getting that sort of uptight about being challenged, right? I don't get the sense that Sean McVey, A, responds that way, and B, has someone saying to him, what are you doing? Or Bill Belichick has someone's. So, like, I know it's like, it's a funny little clip, but I did look at that and be like, that was weird. Yeah. Like, I just, that was a, I don't know any leaders who do that, right?

And so I thought that was interesting. One, you will get no argument for me that Cal Shanahan is a, amongst the two, three best coaches in the NFL. I love the guy. I think that they are an automatic Super Bowl contender no matter what. And I think he has more fun scheming for second and third stringers on his team probably than any coach in the NFL. He is so creative and so good at it.

And we've seen it year after year. Name a team that consistently loses their quarterback, their starting left tackle, their best running back, their best receiver, their entire defense. And consistently every single year does as well as he does, as if it's like not even missing a beat, right? So I think the guy is brilliant. And I think he, love him as a coach. Don't disagree with you at all on this.

And I think some of what you're saying leads me to the next thing I would say about this game, which is a little bit against the market, but I like the over. And the reason I like the over is because we started to see some cracks in the 49 backline pass defense. And I do think that Jalen Hertz, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, Goddard, they are a serious quartet of weapons that can take advantage of some passing defense deficiencies. And that does not need great coaching. That needs good coordinating and it needs good talent.

And on the flip side, if there's anybody who can figure out how to scheme against a really good pass rush, it's Kyle Shanahan. So I do think there are opportunities for this game to play against type. So I did feel Philadelphia was the side. And I have all week. Bengals, Chiefs, we have the variable. So I talked about it today on the show. I've got video of Mahomes.

He's a full practice participant. There are three levels to high ankle sprains, including grade one, which is mild. He also played very. well, 108 passer rating in the game after the sprain. So I'm not overly concerned. Also, Will Blackman pointed out in the show today, sometimes when Mahomes gets in trouble, he's a little squirly when he extends plays. When you force him to sit in the pocket, it's pretty good.

And so I don't worry about that. Here's, though, why I like Cincinnati plus a point. And here's why. Over the last 20 games in the NFL, there's an argument to be made. Cincinnati's the best second half defense in the league, even better than San Francisco. They make adjustments like nobody else. The other, and by the way, against Kansas City as well, they have trailed Kansas City in their last three beatings of the chiefs, but have dominated late fourth or overtime. I believe Cincinnati's become something that doesn't get a lot of love, but it was what the Patriots with Belichick and Brady did.

They were the best situational football team for about 20 years. Cincinnati is remarkably good situationally, like even better than Kansas City. A lot of its borough's accuracy. So during the off season, remember Burroughs' first year and a half, once against the best, bears, he could be turnover prone. So in the offseason, Cincinnati said, you know what? We're going to peel back some of the deeper routes and do more intermediate closer. Now the bingles give you an upside with no turnovers.

This is what they did to Buffalo. So you have the most accurate passer completion percentage in League History Borough, a team that's no longer giving you turnovers. That was Mahomes' secret sauce early. the best adjusting defense in the league with absolutely no pressure. These are the Chiefs. This is Mahomes. This is Reed.

I think I like Cincinnati, sharp or square? Dude. This game is a roller coaster. You're not going to get a consensus. You're going to be sharp. You're going to be with a bunch of sharps. And there's also going to be sharp.

who like Kansas City. So let me give you the reasons why I think Kansas City at minus one is the play. And this isn't as much about betting and number shopping. And as we often talk about getting the best of the number as it is about the side. This game opened Cincinnati plus three on Sunday night. I bet it's Cincinnati plus three immediately. It got bet down to pick Cincinnati plus one, I mean Cincinnati minus one, KC plus one.

By Tuesday afternoon, it's Kansas City plus two and a half. I bet the Kansas City plus two and a half. By last night, it was back to Kansas City plus one this morning. We're recording this on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City is a one-point favorite because of what we saw with Mahomes. you will get wise guys telling you, I am back in Joe Burrow 100%. And then you will get wise guys telling you,

I'm playing my model. My model has Kansas City as a slight favorite to pick in this game, right? So, I'm sorry, Kansas City is a slight favorite to minus two in this game. So you're going to get both sides of it. it's really going to come down to how do you feel what's going to make you the least uncomfortable in this game. I wish I could give you a consensus. I can't. I can't in any good conscious. Like, we talked about this in the favorites today. We did sharp calls where the wise guys will call us over the 48 hours from Tuesday to Thursday between our two podcasts and tell us what they think of

what we're saying. And a lot of the wise guys were just like, I won't bet against Joe Burrow. the guy's 19 and 1 against the spread as less than a seven point underdog. So the majority of the money in here came in on the Bengals because of where the number was. And that's really what the wise guys did. After that, to anybody's guess. I'll tell you, four coaches left, all offensive. Final eight coaches, seven offensive. but I do think something is important here,

is that all four offenses to me have an identity. I still think one of my biggest takeaways of this playoff, Brandon Staley and Sean McDermott, feel like those offenses just call plays and that we are having a revolution in this sport, and I've been talking about this ad nauseum for two years, is that even with a third string quarterback, I absolutely believe the 49ers have an offensive identity.

Physicality, finding an extra blocker, using multiple weapons at multiple levels, always using motion with a third string quarterback. I felt Josh Allen was deep balls up the sideline in a snowstorm. I had somebody, I had a scouting buddy in this league say, In snowstorms, the hardest thing to catch is a deep ball up a sideline. A, it's hard to see what's in, what's not. B, you're asking players to look up into the snow.

Shorter routes are much easier. I'm staring at the quarterback. Don't ask receivers to look up in snow. He said that sounds ridiculous. Tom Brady says snow games are great as long as there's no wind. He goes because edge rushers, A, can't get their feet. And he goes, linebackers get to their positions quicker because they're sliding over the field. So they give away what they're doing with 12 seconds left before the snap.

So little tiny think. And then a scout says, you never want the sideline deep route snow flakes flying down. He goes, it's just hard for these guys. Cincinnati had an identity. Quick, precise, eight yards in. Move the clock. Take the first downs. and I thought Buffalo looked absolutely disoriented.

And so I guess my takeaway is you start ask yourself about your football team, even if it's flawed. In 2023, do you sense that you have an offensive identity, regardless if you have a great quarterback? It really matters because I could argue the chargers and the bills lost to teams where they had better personnel. I feel like I'll take it one step front. totally agree with your take, except I kind of don't. And I think that the bills do have an identity. I think they have the identity of their quarterback. And I think they have the identity of being immensely talented, incredibly high-strung.

And a roller coaster of emotions. When things are going well for Josh Allen, he shows it. When things are not going well, he's showing it, right? Pounding the turf, throwing tantrums, looking down. The Bengals, they ooze confidence. And it's not just Joe Burrow, right? It's Jamar Chase. It's Joe Mixon.

And they play with a physicality that is different than other teams. Jamar Chase is not the biggest guy in the world, but he runs through tacklers when he gets a screen pass, right? Joe Mixon, like, he is just bullying people. Joe Burrow is unflappable. And so I think there's a huge discrepancy in personality and teams take on the personality of their quarterback. And I think we saw that in complete relief in that Bill's Bengals game. So I do think there's personalities.

I just, I think that the bills don't have a good personality. And so I think that's their problem right now. Yeah. they came off as a little rigid as well. You know, McDermott comes from that, you know, a little bit of that old school play defense, punt, field position. I just think it's really hard. I was talking to Kyle Van Nuoy the other day for a Patriot player.

Now he's with a Chargers free agent. And he said, he goes, when I came into this league, guys didn't want to go over the middle. He goes, everybody wants to go over the middle now. And it's like, he goes, as a linebacker, it's just the tight ends are. more athletic and faster. They don't fear anybody. The receivers, backs. He said the game's changed in 10 years.

The middle of the field is just a paradise for offensive players. You and I grew up, there was a term called alligator arms. And if you had one receiver, Michael Irvin willing to go over the middle, that was it. I can remember Philadelphia having a receiver. I liked out of college. He didn't pan out, Freddie Mitchell. And I can remember a game specifically, and he dropped a pass. and the announcer at the time, whoever it was talked about,

he's not a guy that's comfortable going over the middle. And it just stuck in my head. That was a lot of players, a lot. The way to score quickly in the NFL was a deep ball up the sideline. That's how you did it. That's how the 70 Steelers did it, the swan over the top. You didn't have these seam routes, guys going through. It didn't exist.

It's just not what you did. And so I think these offensive coaches, they're playing chess. they can completely manipulate defenses. When Nick Saban years ago, in a New York Times piece, acknowledged, yeah, I can't, I can't really stop. If a quarterback can move and not a lot I can do, the rules have changed. There's just limitations on what I can do with receivers, quarterbacks, the middle of the field. When Saban's telling you that at the college level, when Tennessee's dropping 45 or 50 on Saban, at the college level where he has an athletic advantage, a personnel advantage,

NFL's the margins are small. So I think coaching matters more in the NFL than it ever has. Couldn't agree more. It's interesting you say that about Freddie Mitchell because I agree with you. And he was a high draft pick, I think out of UCLA. UCLA. I liked him a lot out of college. And he was supposed to be sort of the second coming of someone who was a great

downfield, glamorous receiver, couldn't go over the middle, kind of never really developed. But I'm pretty sure it was Freddie Mitchell who made that miraculous catch down the middle on like a third and 27 or a fourth and 27 from Donovan Nab during their run. I think it was what got them to the Super Bowl. In like late 90s, early 2000s, I got to look it up.

I'm almost positive it was, which is just ironic. Now you got guys like Debo Samuel, right? They live in the middle. Like as big as a linebacker. It's scarier for the linebacker or the safety to hit them than it is for them to go over the middle because they're bigger and stronger. And it's like when these linebackers and these safeties go into these guys and they're the ones who just fall down. Right. And like they and Debo will gain three or four more yards.

It's amazing to see. Yeah. A box safety now. Like a Jamal Adams can't cover. There's there's arguments that you can't pay safeties. And when you're, Jamal Adams more of a hybrid safety linebacker, what's the point? And he's a unbelievably gifted player. But I can remember growing up with Kenny Easley and, you know, Troy Polamalu, who were thumpers.

And that was celebrated and it was necessary. That guy can't cover in space now. That guy can't. You got to be Ed Reed or Earl Thomas. You got to go sideline to sideline. The thumper is a relic. Because the middle of the field now everybody with speed wants to go down in the middle of the field. The thumper, if I have, you know, Seattle gave up two firsts and a tight end and a third, I think, for Jamal Adams.

In retrospect, they got taken to the cleaners. Now, they took Denver to the cleaners on Russell, but that, in retrospect, they gave up way too much for a box safety. Penny Easley. Steve, Steve Atwater? What? You kidding me? Chuck Cecil. Oh, my God.

Or like, where I grew up in Chicago and it was Doug Plank. Yeah. They literally named the greatest defense in NFL history after a hard-hitting safety. Right? The 46. The greatest defense in NFL history, most dominant defense in NFL history, Doug Plank was number 46. You said something really interesting before.

The Bengals defense and their second half adjustments. This is not talked about enough. But I can tell you within the betting community of professional betters, you know, the Bengals have been on this incredible against the spread. streak. And for a lot of betters, when they really started to pile on the bangles and just decided it's bangles or bust, DJ Reader coming off the injured list, the second half of the year, this team became a much more dominant team. And you see it every week. He's pushing the pocket. He's knocking down balls. He's making the big stop on third and short against the opposing

running back. This defense, sixth overall in the NFL in yards per. in points per play allowed. Fifth in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. So if you're thinking about, I don't really know which thought I want to go here, professionals have bet the under. And it's been fascinating. This game opened about 51, 51.5. I bet it at 51.5.

Got down to 46.5. Since Mahomes came back, it's back up to 47.5. for those who are invested, 47 is a key number in totals, right? Key numbers are where games tend to land in 24, 23. 3, 7, 10, in totals,

47, 51, some other ones. If you can get under 47 and a half, that's where the wise guys, that is a, it's a, we talk about Proge Joe's all the time. All the bets are on the over, all the money is on the under. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green Show.

I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.