The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - Stafford Best QB In NFC, Jets Lack Juice, Caleb’s Shaky Debut, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: September 14, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! He starts with the Detroit Lions beating the LA Rams on SNF football and why the Rams still have a Super Bowl window with Matt Stafford at quarterback (4:00). THe also recaps the 49ers beatdown of the Jets on Monday Night Football and why the Jets lack the juice to compete with the AFC’s best (9:30). Then, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to discuss the absolute disaster that DeShaun Watson has become for the Browns (23:30), Caleb Williams struggling in his debut (26:30) and why the Seahawks could be flying unde the radar (34:30). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice week two of the NFL season! 44:00 - Raiders vs. Ravens 46:00 - 49ers vs. Vikings 48:30  - Jets vs. Titans 52:00 - Broncos vs. Steelers 55:00 - Lions vs. Bucs 58:00 - Cowboys vs. Saints 59:00 - Packers vs. Colts (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.

Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wampas on the ice planet, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show.

This is a place for raw, unfilts of coverage. conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The volume. With so many tools and tabs and never enough time, growing a business can feel pretty overwhelming between your email, marketing system, your payment software, your CRM, your content tools, your email tools. keeping track of everything gets out of control really fast.

You end up spending more time organizing documents and data than actually connecting with prospects and customers. That's where HubSpot steps in. It's the all-in-one customer platform for growing better. With HubSpot, marketers generate better leads. Sales builds tighter relationships with customers and closes more deals. Simple as that. And service support your customers at scale with tools like HubSpot's AI chatbot

and knowledge base. Plus, with built-in AI to answer common customers, questions, brainstorm and write marketing content and more so your teams can say goodbye to busy work, meaning your marketers, sales reps, and service teams actually have time to do what they were hired to do. And when they grow, the sky's the limit. Grow better, faster with HubSpot's all-in-one customer platform. Visit HubSpot.com to get started today. All right, let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games are insane. I mean, you had over 700 yards of offense tonight.

Over 500 passing yards between the Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Gough. About five and a half yards of play, if you average the two teams. Let's see, 46 first downs. And no fumbles, each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession was even. First of all, Sean McVeigh and Matt Stafford and Cooper Cup, no Pooka Nakuwa. he got hurt. Both your offensive tackles are out. Make shift offensive line to go into Detroit, Sunday night football against the Super Bowl level team in Detroit. And really, I thought they had the game

won in regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper Cup, and Sean McVeigh, who's a rock star. In the end, though, I felt like Detroit, when it went to overtime, I'm like, okay, now it's Detroit's game. The Rams look tired. Sometimes, and Chris Collinsworth made a great point. You're not really built in week one to go to overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just only so much. I don't know who, I don't have the betting lines next week, but I mean, the Rams and the Lions, if they were a little off next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is the Rams, I mean, I wrote these numbers down at one point. They had a 28 to 12 first down advantage. On the road, 400 yards, 300 passing yards, dominating time of possession, and a 78 to 45 total

play advantage at one point in this game. But credit, a very deep, now experienced Lions team. Like, they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay is still young. Rams are actually pretty young. San Francisco's older. But the Detroit's got a veteran club here. And now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a team. Like the Rams gave it everything they had. But they looked really shot in overtime. And to the Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them. They didn't F around at all. They went right at the Rams interior D-line, and it worked. You know, I think one of the things I'm always taken by is how good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good. But I've said this before. If Matt Stafford and the Rams, and remember, what you saw from the Rams tonight's impressive, Pooka and a cool will be back. They'll have both their offensive tackles. Their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side. I mean, they got two. rookies starting on that defensive front, give those guys 12, 15 games. This Ram team, by the end of the

year, you don't want any part of. This is a really good team. The difference is the Lions are supposed to be good now, and they got outplayed for big chunks of this football game. One of the things I worry about with the Lions is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth. So they got to keep Amaran St. Brown healthy. They don't have a lot of depth there. And the Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're a better team in the back end, Rams, and maybe it's just the Rams. Cooper Cup can do that. Rams kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that football game.

Again, the Rams had a 78 to 45 play advantage at one point and were dominating time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit, I didn't think played particularly well in the second half, and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant, a heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on the road, a great team on Sunday night football,

and you lose, that's a long, flight back to L.A. But I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams. Two teams that could meet again in the NFC championship wouldn't be surprised in the least, would not be surprised in the least. You know, the other thing the Rams, and I wouldn't call this a problem, but it's fascinating. So there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford? Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight. He went 34 for 49 for 317 yards and a touchdown, a pass rush in his face. In the second half, he went 18 at 23 for 200 yards. And again, he's under duress. Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket. And I'm sitting there

watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the Rams for the next couple of years in the draft, why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are you going to get in the draft that's as good as this guy? I know he's older. But when I watched him tonight on the road pass rush. I mean, it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higby, his top tight end. He's banged up. He didn't have Pooka Nakua. He didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic. You're not going to face many pass rushes. Certainly tonight, you're not going to face many environments in this league harder than that. And this guy's 18 for 23 in the second half. So, you know, I was sitting as I watched the game and I'm thinking, well,

I mean, he's never been a big mover. He moves well enough in the pocket. His arm's great. I mean, he's clearly going a thousand miles an hour cognitively upstairs. He's got an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Pooka Nakuwa. Now they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in. Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off. I think he was in Tampa at one point.

He had a huge plate tonight. And I'm just thinking, I'm looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young. Stafford's the old guy. but I don't know if I draft a quarterback if I'm the Rams. I would definitely draft a tackle. Robin Havenstein didn't play tonight right tackle. He's getting up there. And I would get another wide receiver.

But I mean, last year, five of their six top picks or defense. So there's no reason, you know, they are very close. I think they could get to the Super Bowl. I don't know if they're as good as Kansas City. I don't know if there's as good as Baltimore. I don't know. But they're certainly in a group of four or five teams that could get there, five or six teams maybe.

So I just, you're watching Stafford, I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't look close to retirement. He doesn't look close. Only one team in the AFC East did not win the New York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing. And I understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one year. The Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball at will on the Steelers defense.

It was a complete blowout. You know, you face the Andy Reid's and, And you're, you know, I mean, look at what Sean McVeigh and Stafford did in a losing effort, missing multiple starters. Like, these offensive coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face. But, I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was on the field was 38 minutes to 19.

That's embarrassing. That's what Will Levis would produce. The first downs when Aaron was on the field, Jets had a 25 to 11 deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense. This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you can trust. And Breece Hall.

I thought the O line was fine. Aaron only stacked one time. They were fine. This wasn't Aaron Rogers running for his life. You know, let's just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not in his prime. He's not as big, strong, and athletic as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He doesn't move like a Kyler Murray, Lamar, or Patrick Mahomes.

And I watched them tonight, and I think we have overvalued how good Aaron Rogers is. Now, it's going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They face Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Jacoby Brissette and New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the Jets defense is not going to face this team. But I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws a really pretty ball. Aesthetically, it's fun to watch.

It's like that first big drive was great. But the only other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when the Niners' safeties were playing catch-up because they paused. Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL. There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go into detail. But I always feel like he loves the free ball because even if he throws a pick, it doesn't count.

So he gets really hyper-aggressive on the free ball. And more aggressive than he is normally, loves to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's reluctant to do, in my opinion, in other parts of the game. So I just, I look at that offense and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine. But it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend plays like he used to. They've got one receiver I like. Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the first half.

The tight ends are irrelevant. And Breece Hall's good. But this is not a high-powered offense. You've got a defensive head coach, a quarterback past his prime, and Nat Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up. Miami's offense is going to be better all year because of Josh Allen, Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's the third best offense in the division. Let's be totally, it's not Houston.

It's not Kansas City. I don't think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So, and that's just, it's not the Rams or the Niners on the other side. I don't think it's the Lions. I don't think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense.

It's not Dallas after week one. You know, it's not a top 10 offense. So you're going to have to rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to the defense. They got pushed around. Jesus. Jordan Mason, they had 180 yards rushing. I mean, they had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to.

Now, again, it's Shanahan. It's the opener. But the San Francisco 49ers offensive line is the weakness of the team. And with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp, that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring. I thought this was going to be played between the 30s. I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean, it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to. It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could run it with Debo or Jordan Mason, it was Kiddell, it was Ayuk.

I mean, he dropped a touchdown. They did whatever they wanted to for most of this game. And again, now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissette, Bo Nix. It's not the same. I mean, the Jets defense. In fact, you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped the following week because the Niners are so physical. I think the Jets coming back.

were kind of physically humiliated in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think it would look like that. I didn't think it would look like that. I thought this thing had 2320 written all over it. I cannot believe what the Niners' offensive line did. It was chunk plays, 6-8-11, 6-8-11. It was easy. It was just, and they weren't doing a lot of tricks.

You know, I mean, the Rams and the Niners use a lot of motion. I never felt Miami does as well. I didn't feel it was terribly deceptive tonight. I thought the Niners just kind of rear back, ran to the perimeter, and did whatever they wanted to outside the tackles. It was easy stuff. Brock Purdy, I mean, he wasn't squeezing the ball into tight windows. Jennings, Debo, people were open. So this wasn't a very resilient effort by the Jets.

I take copious notes. You know, at 1.23 to 7, Aaron gets picked. It's 26 to 7. the free play, but, you know, Aaron's a master at that. I guess the best news for the Jets, the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably. But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would be great tonight. Flying cross-country, Bosa against an old Tyron Smith, like I thought it would be choppy.

The Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Redick's absence. That was a weak effort. That was a non-competitive effort. Jesus, 38 to 19 minutes time of possession when Aaron Rogers were on the field. That's an ass kicking. That's like you're not competitive. You're not extending drives at all. I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it without Christian McCaffrey,

who is the engine to this offense. 180 plus rushing yards with no Christian McCaffrey, wide open receivers, 25 to 11 first down edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had eight straight scoring drives. IU. and Trent Williams held out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives.

That's like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean, it's week one. It's not like you have a litany of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives. Like Robert Sala, that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is your culture. This is your team.

I mean, would you have guessed that? I mean, McCaffer, once you heard McCaffrey wasn't going to play, if I said, yeah, they'll score an eight straight scoring drives. You would have said, oh, come on, you're an Aaron Rogers hater. That's bad. TD, Tuddy, taking it to the house. House, in for six, whatever you call a touchdown, one thing's for sure. TDs matter more at Draft King's Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL.

On the ground, in the air, special teams or defense, they don't care how you score them. They want to bet on touchdowns. You want to bet on touchdowns. Draft King's Sportsbook number one place to bet on TDs. Ready to place your first NFL bet, bet in something simple, like a player scoring a touchdown. Go to Draft King's Sportsbook app. Make your bet today. Ready to do a touchdown dance of your own.

New Draft King's customers bet five bucks. and get 250 in bonus bets instantly and one month of NFL plus premium. Download the Draft King Sportsbook app, the code's Colin. Again, new customers bet five bucks and get 250 in bonus bets and one month of NFL plus premium only on Draft Kings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. In New York, call 8778-8-Hop-N-Y or text Hope-N-Y 467369.

In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-78-9-7777 or visit ccpg.org. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas, 21 and over, age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in New Hampshire, Oregon and Ontario. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.co slash FT Ball. NFL Plus premium offer available only to new and former NFL plus subscribers. Additional NFL plus premium terms at NFL.com slash terms.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clipper Taylor, the podcast. forth. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told,

and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan,

so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your point. Podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.

and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid?

Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast.

Learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. All right, former NFL Scout, three and out podcaster, John Middlkoff of the volume. Week 1 reaction presented by Uber Eats. Get almost, almost anything for game day. All right, let's start with Tom Brady's debut. Good God.

Cleveland's a disaster. You know, I was sitting there thinking as I'm watching that game, if you're going to sign a contract to a quarterback to a guaranteed contract, which you know, Kirk Cousin's got. one and Deshawn Watson. I not only want a great player. I want a great leader. I want great health.

I want an ascending player. He's virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland. What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better quarterback today. John than Deshawn Watson. I mean, Baker was a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like, we know it's not Stefanski.

We know he's a really bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I don't even know what. Deshawn Watson is. I mean, changing uniforms. He's a, he's a bottom 10 quarterback. You know, as funny as I had on the Redskins or the Commander's game on a little TV, and I wrote down about 10 minutes before we jumped on, Baker's in a different universe, not just as a thrower, his touch. I mean, Deshawn's throwing balls into the stands constantly, but his swag, the way he carries himself, the way his teammates. And even as a playmaker, I mean, it's not like Baker some elite athlete, but moving around.

Deshawn Watson, Dak Prescott signed the same contract, essentially $230 million guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has character question marks and who has a short resume? I mean, I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has to go down immediately as one of the worst deals. In the history of pro sports, you look at Dak, has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player, super smart guy. High character leader, everyone that knows him like him. Deshawn Watson, I was out on him last year.

Today, what an embarrassment. Where's the playmaking, Colin? He doesn't make any plays. And he was never a hyper athletic, or he was never a hyper-accurate thrower. That was always the beat on him. I can remember his first year. Everybody liked him. He would skip throws.

He's not a pretty thrower. He's not an easy thrower. Everything looks like it's a struggle downfield. You know, he was a wildly dynamic athlete. You take that out. And, I mean, he's no more athletic today than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of a B athlete and a B arm. But I was watching Daxon.

And I'm like, oh, Dax's a much, much better player than Dishon Watson. And the thing about Dack, Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults, you do feel like he is the soul of the organization. He's the soul for sure. Dishon Watson, if you went through that locker room and a half has the guy. half the guys. And you could move off the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I want to talk about the Bears game. First of all, the fact that they won a game and pass for 64 yards. So it was interesting. Belichick said something last week.

I took the Titans to win that game. And basically, I was on the right side. I felt for almost entire game. But Belichick said something this week, and I took it to heart. Belichick said I wasn't impressed. He was like 10 for 20. And I went back and I text somebody who is, I know, who's in the NFL, who's been critical of him. And the big question with Caleb is high school and college, he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy. He can really get into the high grass. And if you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in his first three. years. And then Andy would pull him back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done that in his career, where it's so easy for Mahomes and Stafford. They start sidearming two out of three

throws. The mechanics get sloppy. And I thought with Caleb, he's got a defensive coach. So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at one point had an offensive coordinator. He really connected it with. Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on the fairway? Because I thought, I thought today he struggled at times to see things. You know, I thought his decision making late in the game and not making mistakes and taking what was given for him was fine. But it, I mean, all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good as anybody and he threw two picks. What did you make of Caleb overall today? Well, I think if you go back to Bill's comments, he's like,

listen, I'm not being a hater, but I don't put anything into preseason. And when you're inaccurate it in the preseason. Do you know what hit me today watching about 10 games in the morning on different TVs and screens? You know how the NBA, once the playoffs start? You're like, what we just witnessed for the last six months doesn't even look like the same sport. That's kind of the preseason. I mean, the first 10 minutes of like 10 a.m. to like 10.30, you're watching the Steeler game, the Houston indie games. Guys are flying around. I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right. So the defensive game plans, all these defensive of coordinators, even the average ones, are making $1.5.2 million. They're paid a lot of money

to do this. The physicality of the game ramps up. The question on Caleb, he is going to be able to make spectacular throws, though he wasn't doing that today. I think he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot. But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket? Whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw, and it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on him fast. now. Jeffrey Simmons is probably one of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know that much about because he plays for the Titans. You put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something, he'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass hard and he was thrown off. And Will Levis bailed their team out. Because if Will Levis doesn't self-inplode, the Titans not only easily should have covered, they should win the game.

I mean, he looked like Daniel Jones there. But Caleb, he was, he was atrocious today. I mean, he really was, which is fair because this is what Bill and Bill, and Bill, is an old school guy, Sean Payton's, all these guys that come from the 80s, the 90s, the Bill Parcells, they hate hype. You know, you and I, I like some hype. Yeah. I enjoy it. Those guys do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once you kick off week one. And that, like all that hype was meaningless today if on third and 70s skipping a ball. And he was and it unraveled fast. The arm strength, all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said, it gets back to Jaden Daniels. Like beside his running didn't look great. Bo Nix, who has. as an offensive play caller. Now, he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot of the time. It's hard. This is really, this is why I've said pump the brakes, especially on Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright picked him to win the Super Bowl.

A lot of people are high, you know, he threw that out. I don't know if he actually picked, but my point is he could make serious strides as the year goes on and they could win seven games. This is really, look at Sam Darnel. He's been the league for like seven years. It's taking him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no. It's not easy.

No, I said this. I did a piece for Fox Sunday, and I said, be careful on Caleb Williams. This is one of the best divisions. This is a franchise that ran Trubisky out of town, and he made the playoffs twice with Aaron Rogers and Stafford in their prime. This media is rough. The weather gets rough by Thanksgiving. If they win eight games and he gets better, take it. If you could take that thing and say he's significantly better, we win at games. We finish things. We finish. Third, take it. Because what success looks like to DAC is not what success looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew up, the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now, that's still really hard. Yeah. It's still really hard. But quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a run-centric league.

It's a 60-40, 62-38 passing league. And I mean, it's even Gino's... Smith, a veteran today. His best play was a run. Like, this stuff is hard. And I think we just have to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I thought Bo Nix had a little rhythm at one point in the game where he felt like, I felt like Bo was seeing the game. He wasn't doing much, but he was seeing the game. He was seeing the field. And he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all 24 points today were scored by defense and special teams will love us to me is done. He's baked. I don't think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't see the field.

Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to be fine. But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And I think the other thing is, if you opened up on the road, it's different. Dude, he opened up in Chicago. The weather was perfect. I had a buddy at the game. Like, there was a lot of freaking heat on Caleb today. Like a lot of pressure on Caleb. Well, that's where if you, you know, if you take Bo Nex and you take Caleb, Bo Nix is in Seattle where the place is really loud and he can barely hear himself think. Caleb gets a pretty BP fastball of 12 o'clock kickoff in Chicago. I'm a huge believer in two things. For young people, whether you're a professional athlete or just a normal person in society,

confidence can be lost really quickly and it can be hard to gain, I would say, you know, in your early 20s. And when you are, everyone's looking at you and you start losing confidence, it can spiral. And the only thing you ever have to go back on is your experience. But as a young player, you don't have any experience. Like Gino today, you're watching early on. You're like, God, Seattle looks weird.

He's been through it. Dach today. All these guys have so much experience that they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak out over a bad quarter. And you just watch Caleb, you just felt it snowballing. And what does he have to go back on? That's right. Nothing.

And it's not like he can look over there and Bill Walsh is on the sideline. Be like, listen, I've been doing this for 30 years. Won a couple Super Bowls. I'm going to call three plays, get you a couple layups. And they were just, they were very scattered. Yes. They felt very, I mean, there was one point in time in that game before Will Levis just pooped down his own leg where you're like, are they going to lose 28 to 10? Yeah.

And just be the number one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think. Because that, and I really think that you can defensive turnovers, like if they're playing a top, If they're playing just Baker Mayfield or Gino. Oh, they got blown out. They get killed. Yeah. So, I mean, they get killed. And I'm not jumping on Caleb here, which I would imagine is going to happen a lot this week.

I just think everyone, this is so much more difficult at the NFL level than college, even if you're playing at a high level of college. And Caleb was playing a lot of good teams in college. But the level of athlete, the level of speed, he just did the rhythm. I mean, it was just, it was glaring. I want to talk about the Broncos and Seahawks because, again, I thought Bo had his moments. I'm watching Seattle, and I say this respectively to Pete Carroll, I think Seattle has elite talent. I just don't think people know the players.

But Walker, their wide receivers, they have tremendous young corners. They got a consistent pass rush. They got the Murphy kid in the draft, the top defensive tackle. A fan left today. Gino is what he is. He's a really solid. He's a great story. He is what he is.

He's not going to lose you a lot of games. He's not going to win you a lot of games. But I'm watching that game today, and Sean Peyton coached his ass off for a half. He got them. I mean, a lot of this was Seattle, do it getting safeties, and it was quirky.

And then all of a sudden, by the second half, you're like, okay, now we're off script. And now Bo Nix is a rookie quarterback. And he just, you know, that's the difference between a veteran, and Dak in the second half and Bo Nix in the second half. Bo's like, okay, now they adjust it.

So I got everything on the script I figured out. Now it's all off script. And I'm watching that Seattle team, John. And I think you called them one of the surprised teams. I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore. I think they are really talented. They fly around the field defensively.

I actually was kind of on the other side, but their talent. my issue with them is they've been they were poorly coached but they've been winning nine games. You know, it's not like they've been winning five. And a good division. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. So how do they go from,

do you think they could win 11? I still think their offensive line has some question mark. It did today. Safety's because they got punked. Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker, there's a chance at the end of the year.

He's a top five running back. Yeah. How about the catch locket made to seal the game? He's their third wide receiver. And he's been there. Jesus, for 10 years. He's got to be one of the more underappreciated players of his generation. Might not even be close. I think I could play for my team any day. Now, if their defense is better,

they still might be a nine-ish win team, but could they beat the 49ers in a game? Because they haven't beat the 49ers in five games. Not with Gino. They played him two years ago in the playoffs. Not would you. So if they can play at a more physical brand, my question marks, you never know with a coordinator going to a head coach. He's young. I think he's 37 years old. and their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who was DeBor's right hand, had never coached in the NFL. They showed his resume today. He was at Sioux Falls not that long ago.

That's a pretty quick jump. Now, he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their coaching staff might just be better. I saw a watch John Snyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You can tell he thinks they got something. He knows their team is down, but he thinks the coaching staff is pretty good. So, like, can they beat McVeigh and Kyle? Can they split?

Can they go two and two? Because if they can, then maybe they're not 9 and 8, they're 10 and 7, and they're like the 6 or 7 seed. I would say that's possible. Not going to overreact to play in Denver, who it's just, you could tell they're a little talent deficient still with the rookie quarterback. But, yeah, I mean, it's hard not to, he's an easy guy to root for. Gino's an easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday night, Monday night games, and Tom Brady calling it, if you're both 4 and 1 or however the schedule, and you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners.

I'm not picking Gino Smith, home or away. Yeah. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered. conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wampas on the Ice Planet Hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s.

To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.

And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely.

And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. person. Join me, Keir Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app, search Learn the Hardway, and listen now. All right, time for Sharper Square. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, All odds provided by Draft Kings. So I was a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two, and one, so I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean, I was wrong on the Carolina side, but other than that, I felt pretty good about it.

I could go in an order of importance, but I was thinking about this. I am above going in order. I just give you my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start with a team that is this close to beating Kansas City Arrowhead, and I think the chiefs are a better version of last year's Super Bowl champ, Baltimore. I think the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly well-coached. I mean, the fact that the only way they'll win is physicality, and the chargers were more physical.

They beat them at their only game. I think Baltimore's really good. I don't think Lamar will run 16 times on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him. It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think Baltimore's pissed. I'm going to swallow the eight and a half, sharper square.

So it's square. But you're not going to find a ton of guys who, when they're doing it. this are excited about betting the Raiders. You mentioned Carolina, right? I was on Carolina last week, too. The Wise guys will be on Carolina again this week as six and a half point underdogs in the same way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started at nine and a half, got up to 10, and then was bet down to nine and a half, then nine and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer to a number that I think at some point the Wise guys will come back in on Baltimore, but at this big of a number, they're just betting the number. And this early in the season, everything tells you

that you are playing against the overreaction, right? Everyone saw the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive game against the chief's team that looks like it can break every rule of betting that exists in the universe, right? Right. The Raiders, people were high on, they got crushed and they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Pierce made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the athletic that that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory. It was the first time a coach had been down and in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls that has been made in the past eight years. And you could see him on camera. There's videos of him saying,

should I be going for this right now? So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to be on the Raiders. So let me take an underdog, Minnesota at home against the 49ers. San Francisco on a short week, played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as good as the Niners, that's very hard to do back-to-back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home. Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're great at left tackle. They're also good at running back, tight-end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat. I think Minnesota's actually, I said this before the season, if they finish fourth, they

will be the greatest fourth place team in the history of the league. They've got a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach. Really, really sharp guy. It reminds me a Kevin Stefanski before he started winning coach of the year. He's just, he's operating at a different level. This was at six at one point, I think. I take the Vikings five and a half sharper square. Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half. They took them at six. They still like the Vikings. I got to tell you, I was leaning Niners in this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanhan is so good. You and I have talked about this. He does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It actually, I think, inspires him to be more creative.

And he's also been very good on short weeks on the road. Eight and two during his career, one of the four best coaches the past five years on short weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said, I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him. You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck for rookie of the year coaching. They both had teams that were excellent in one score games. They played each other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota. Brian Dayball wins coach of the year. He's getting more credit as the best coach, right? And Kevin O'Connell had a similar year, and then last year did wonders when Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Dayball's team is cratering.

When their top quarterback goes down, then we see what happens. last week, a bad quarterback for the Giants, a historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a Cinderella-like first half, 10 for 10 on his first 10 passes with a touchdown, a 99-yard touchdown drive that ends with a fourth down pass, like touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach, and I think that's another reason why the wise guys are in the Vikings. So there's two things that I look at with the Jets and the Titans.

When you play a standalone game and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, like the Jets were pushed around the field, eight straight scoring drives by San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially one of the worst offenses in a league. For a quarterback, I don't think can play. I don't think Will Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough.

I think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw in the S&A. That's the first part. The second part is San Francisco makes everybody, so does Andy Reid and McVeigh. They make a lot of people look bad in week one. I think the Jets are actually a pretty good football team.

When this number got up to four, now I sound like such a square on this, but four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four. I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want to create fours. They'd rather you'd be three to three and a half. When the market has to go to four,

they're signaling, It is just a better team. This started it for the jets for a better team. They're pissed. I don't think Will Levis can play. Homefield's never met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take the Jets minus three and a half.

Well, the wise guys like the Titans. And they're kind of holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play. And that number four is really important. And I'm glad you bring it up. And we'll do that in the last part of my soliloquy here. The Jets had were physically dominated. Totally.

Not just that. Their defense, which is supposed to be their strength, as you noted, eight straight scoring drives, their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get to Purdy who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Bill Callahan showed last week that he can do something really interesting with this Titans' offensive line from a running perspective. you know, Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach,

left the Browns this past season to go work with his son, revamp the Titans' offensive line. The Titans' defense did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right? Like, the Bears were scoring on special teams, and they were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said, is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the number here. The four is key. teams that open at four or higher at home in weeks one and two, 60% against the spread the last 20 years.

Teams that open at four or higher at home after losing their last game against the spread, which the techs with the Titans did, 64% since 2020. One more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated on Monday night. They now have a defense that was on the field for a ton of plays. Going back short week to be against another really physical team. That's what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than 25 minutes of possession in week one,

six and 25 against the spread in week two. That's 19%. Wow. Wow. That's the Jets. So look, I'm with you. Like, this isn't going to be one of my five best plays because I don't trust Will Levis. And it's becoming clear in this league,

there is such a delta between competent quarterback And really good quarterbacking and not. It's becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite all these numbers that go back, you're going to have to play the quarterback in some situations. And this to me is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.

I'm going to take Denver plus two and a half against the Steelers, and here's why. Thank God. I thought it was a really tough spot for Bownecks in the opener. Loud Stadium. You don't really know the defense. You have to go watch Baltimore, Mike McDonald. Also, Seattle's got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him to throw 42 times.

He had one terrible pick. He's more mobile, and anybody thinks. And I had another ex-player, who I respect tell me this week. He's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may not be the best year, year two, three, four. He's going to have the best year. the rest of them have defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here.

They've always been good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers as dogs, not his favorites. Denver plus the point, sharper square. 100%. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. Wise guys love the Broncos here.

Probably going to take a little piece of the Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for Bo Nix. I think the wise guys, they love Seattle. They're really impressed with Seattle's defense. They love Mike McDonald and what he can do with that team. And I think the wise guys were also really impressed with how much better the Broncos played last week as a team versus what they looked like a year ago. And defensively

true, but I think they were excited about Bo Nix. And if you watch the game back, and we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from professionals who all watch a lot of film, Bo Nix recognizes he missed some easy throws. And that's because he was still getting to know the pace of the game. They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.

Seattle was a six-point favorite. So there's a lot of sentiment that this is the right side. The line moved from three to two and a half. And I will say you said it about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest underdog coach, possibly in the history of the game. The past 20 years for sure. Not just great as an underdog.

Great as an underdog winning outright. He is just as bad when he is a favorite. 41, 28 and 1 against spread as a road dog in his career. 32, 40, and 2 as a road favorite. So it's almost completely flipped, right? And when he opens as a favorite of three or more on the road, 38% against the spread. So I would say you're on the right side.

Also, we've talked about this on the show. You know, we do this thing called the luck rankings at action that sort of takes the noise out of all the games and tells you what the expected score would have been based on the stats and if you didn't have the flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky in the Steelers and the Broncos.

So we like the Broncos here. Okay. A game every week, I want you to teach me in the audience a lesson. I don't get the number. So the lions go to overtime. That's not good. Generally, I stay away from teams that go to overtime. you know, seven, ten more plays.

The Lions, clearly, Baker played his best game as a pro. This line is seven and a half. I still think without Puka Nakua and three backup offensive linemen, the Rams moved the ball up and down the field in the second half, did everything they wanted to do. Blake Corum didn't even play. Tyler Higby, their tight end is out. It was just Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford, and McVeigh, and backups.

and they move up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers. I don't understand the number. To me, before, why? Explain how Detroit's a seven and a half. What's the side here? Well, look, the Lions, according to a lot of power ratings, should be bigger favorites. Like, I love the Lions in this spot.

And that is a massive number to bet. It is a massive quarterback in Baker. It is, well, here's a thing. I think that there's a couple things going on. Number one, on the buck side, they are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that opening game, right? But you were great against a rebuilding team and the expectations for the bucks for a lot of people were kind of low. And from a public point of view, they've now exceeded them and Baker looked unbeatable. But he played against a team with a defensive line that is basically starting from scratch

against a defense that doesn't have great defensive backs. So he could kind of have his way. The Rams are like their game plan, which they had five months to build coming off a playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were still losing 17 to 3. And they needed a couple penalties to get themselves back. a position. And yes, they were moving the ball up and down the field because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really passing the ball. And what they did, the Rams, was brilliant. Matthew Stafford, one step drop, first read throw. Aidan Hutchinson was in his grill every single

play, even when Matthew Stafford was throwing it after about a second and a half, right? Baker is not that kind of player. Baker is not as sort of efficient with when he drops back. and getting to his first receiver. And I think the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell is the best coach against the spread the past five years. Jared Goff, 26 and 9 against the spread indoors.

Like, this is a really good team. I think this is the second best roster in the NFC. You could argue the Niners are the best. The Lions showed something. They're a physically dominant team. It is not about the edges. It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce.

So I like the Lions here. I think they are going to blow this team away. Okay. I always ask you for a game I missed, a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable, egregiously bad television product, but I already gave you that with the Giants in Washington. So what say you? Well, look, I do like another favorite.

little chalky for me, but I do like the Cowboys against the Saints. I think, you know, Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott, they are juggernauts during the regular season. They are juggernauts as big favorites at home. I am not a fan of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina team and got in the exact right position. But Dak is a favorite at home 15 and 9 against the spread. Yeah, he's a good home fave. Yeah. The past three years as a favorite of six or more in his career, 31, 13 and 1, that's 71%. Right?

Like, he's just great in this spot. And so I like to, I am on the side of the Cowboys here. I think anything under seven, you're getting a good number. Here's the game that a lot of wise guys have been talking about and has had one of the biggest moves

and it makes me sick to my stomach, but we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers. Oh. What is Malik Willis? list plays. I know. I know. I don't know what to tell you, but like, that's, that's the game. Everybody is talking about, look, this game was at three and a half. It went down to three. Now there's some places where it's two and a half. That is not the squares coming in and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys coming in. And like, I think, I think there's a couple things. One,

the swing, the Packers were in what's called the look-ahead line, so the line that was set before last week's games, the Packers were four and a half-point favorites. With Malik Willis, they opened as three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight-point swing. Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread. And the way that guys figured it out is they take, how much better is he than his backup?

It's not just about what would the line be if he's not playing. It's what would the line be if his backup is playing, right? So, Jordan Love, as good as he is, is not an eight-point swing kind of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they think there was a little bit of inflation

in the way that they reopened the line from three and a half, which is why I got that down. But also there are some on-the-field elements. year. Number one, Malik Willis, if he knows anybody, it's the Colts, right? For the past couple of years, he's had to prepare for the Colts. Backup quarterbacks when they are playing in their first game, 57% against the spread the past three seasons. There is some sort of overreaction in the market that offers a little bit of value. And then just look on the field, like the Colts'

defensive secondary is in trouble. They were not great. past week against the Texans, they're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and their 25 points, or 25 minutes of possession. The other team that this applies to from the past week, the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at. Matt LaFleor, I just said Dan Campbell best coach past five years against spread. Matt LaFleur second best spread against the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are leading people to bet the Packers. to hold your nose, bet the number kind of thing. If you can get the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and a half.

Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. He's in Oxford, Mississippi now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson. So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what I am. Not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that? I can validate that.

I did have a bunch of bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of us were at Wright's house hanging out. And, you know, you've interviewed Wright.

He is the quintessential Southern personality, great voice, drips, accent, like, and he is a Mississippian and he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out

his house and starts with barbecue dinner and then it's a few drinks and then it's a few more drinks and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting in the same place

and it's beautiful. full outside and we're sipping on bourbons and I get back to my hotel. And you know how in hotels, like there's eight different lights and eight different lights switches? You're not used to like the layout, right? Maddening. And so when I take out my contacts, I'm legally blind. Like, I can't see anything. I need to feel the room. Yeah. And I realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned off all the lights. So I had to get like nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch for the light behind the TV, found the light switch for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the desk lights, the, you know, the side table

lights by the bed, could not find the light switch for the overhead light. Like I'm in the wall, cannot find it. I go back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them up and down, cannot find it. I had to do the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like, I know Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm not, I'm not so far gone. I'm going to forget this in the morning. I can't find the light switch from my overhead light. And he goes, okay, what do you want me to do? I'm like, do you have any idea where the light switches are in my room? He goes, what room are you in? I go 325. He goes, all right, let me think about it. He goes, nope, and I don't have anything down here that maps it. I was about to say to him, again, it's after midnight, there's only one guy in the desk.

He can't leave, but I'm about to say to him, any chance you can come up to my room and check out where the lights are. And then as I was about to say it, I'm like, that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say after midnight to a guy working the front desk. I put the, I said, you know what, I'll figure it out. I put the phone down. And I say to myself, I'm like, I'm just going to have to sleep with the light on. Like, I don't know what else to do. And then I gave myself a newt Rockney. I'm like, Millman, you're going to find this light switch.

You can find this light switch. Again, I'm hands on the wall, feeling it around, feeling it around. Finally, I get to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat. It looks like the thermostat. Found the light switch. Turn it off. Felt full relief.

Tripped on my way to the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody on the way. Yeah. If that would have been a woman at the front desk, that's a lawsuit. Yeah. I come up to my room. Could you?

Brother. By the way, Burns for it. Clearly it's so good. I cannot find the light switch. All right. I'm going to bounce back. Good seeing you, buddy.

Good seeing you too, brother. I'll see you later. The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review. Another podcast from some SNL

late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman, help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing huge. human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor.

It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to, listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple

podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. Eighty-four was big to me. I'm Sam Jay and I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.