The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - The Packers Secret To Success, The Bears Need A House Cleaning, Betting NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 28, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! He starts by extending his sympathy to Caleb Williams who has obvious talent but can’t overcome the disaster that is the Chicago Bears franchise (3:45). He also argues that the NBA needs to make major changes in order to win back fans in an era of declining ratings (10:15). Then he dives into the unique advantage the Green Bay Packers have by not having an owner and why that’s resulted in long term success and good decision making (11:15). Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 17 of the NFL slate, plus the College Football Playoff 26:00- Blowouts in first round of College Football Playoff 28:15 - Broncos vs Bengals 30:30 - Saints vs Raiders 28:00 - Falcons vs Commanders 34:30 - Bills vs Jets 36:45 - Panthers vs Buccaneers  39:00 - Ohio State vs Oregon 50:45 - Cardinals vs Rams 53:45 - Chad’s Biggest Whif/Hit Of The Year 57:15 - Chargers vs Patriots (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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over the Chicago Bears. You know, first of all, just a broad comment. Caleb Williams has thrown for over 300 yards four times this season. That's more than Patrick Mahomes. That's remarkable. And tonight he had an interception for the first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this team and this season. I mean, they're using a basically their third different person is sort of assembling the game plan this year. It's just a circus.

It is an absolute circus. He's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC. He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really nice throws tonight. I mean, Gino Smith is, I mean, just a Hammondegger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent. But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise. There's nothing I like about it.

Like even bad franchises, let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets. They had Robert Sala for years, an excellent defensive coach. Joe Douglas whiffed on a quarterback in a COVID year, but that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks. It's very good. He also went and got Devante Adams before he got fired, and Devante and Aaron are connecting. Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers.

They went out and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic, accurate starter. There's nothing about the Bears outside of Caleb Williams. I mean, it's, I don't trust the ownership. You know, Kevin Warren, the president has a reputation as more politician than football expert. Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen, keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think he's done a terrible job.

Last year, four picks, he took a punter. That's not what I would have done. They could have, you know, made more moves. Iber flus, the staff, it's a mess. I mean, there's just nothing that's redeemable about the franchise outside of, Caleb Williams and a couple of players, Montez Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know, they've got a couple of players I like, but everybody in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just nobody could have succeeded here.

You know, tonight it was an unwashable mess and all the fears that Caleb Williams had privately going to Chicago. I mean, I reported this last year. I got pushback on it, but people in his camp were worried. This franchise. I mean, look at Chicago sports right now. White Sox, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears. I don't have any ability to decipher why. Not great ownership is a place to start.

But I feel sad for the kid because, and you can see the talent. I mean, you would have to be trying to make an argument to say you can't see his talent. I mean, last night or tonight was the first interception he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween. And that's why this idea that you can just go out and get some, you know, Ben Johnson and he's going to change the world. You know, that guy's never been a head coach at the high school level. There are so many hurdles to overcome in this organization. I don't think there's a good job right now in the NFL.

I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs are good. And if I was Mike Frable, I'd sit it out for a year because I think next year you could possibly have the Cowboys. Bingles and Joe Burrow would be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a good coach could be in trouble. So those are really good opportunities.

And there's only been three great coaching opportunities in the last eight years. Green Bay, Matt LaFleur, I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas. and getting Justin Herbert with a Chargers, those are really high-end coaching opportunities. I wouldn't want this Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is.

My other takeaway in this game, it's funny, the number one position in the NFL over the last 20 years that has been the biggest bust rate in the first round is wide receiver. And obviously, you know, wide receivers can make dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have,

Smith and Jigba first rounder, D.K. Metcalf, second rounder, a good tight end and Noah Fant, excellent running back, Charbonnet, who's their second back, but very quality. Gino Smith can't play. You're 8, 9, 9, and 8 with Gino Smith. That's just what it is. You know, Roma Dunzee, what can you do? They've been better off going out and getting an available offensive tackle. Instead, they went in later rounds and got some prospect, I think, from Yale. And, you know, can he play? We'll see. You look at the chargers who are going to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver.

They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs. They have two of the best young tackles, offensive tackles in the NFL. Yeah, I was just watching it tonight. And I'm looking all these first round wide receiver talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzee and D.K. Metcalfe second round. Smith and Jigbin, what's it matter?

If you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you have a mediocre quarterback. And I like John Snyder as general manager for the Seahawks. He's mostly not a good job. But I think he made a major mistake last year and the year before not drafting a quarterback. And I said it at the time, I'm not looking through the rearview mirror here. I said it last year. Seattle's roster is really solid, D-line solid, skill positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just mediocre at quarterback.

So it was a tough watch tonight. And, you know, I just, Chicago fans, Al Michaels touched on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and all their sports. And to come out tonight and pack that stadium is, you know, it's a tip of the cap to one of a great American cities and sports cities because fans in that city are getting ripped off. The quality is awful. It's always been a very political city and it feels like, you know, The same with the Bears. It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So, again, I think my first choice would be Brable. I don't know if he'd accept it.

I have real reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators. A year ago, Bobby Sloick, Houston OC, was a genius. Houston can't score this year. C.J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know, Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he struggled as a head coach, college and pro. You got to be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Gino Smith.

Shane Waldron, you know, I don't even know where he's at now. He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think when a franchise is broken, you've got to get a culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit, Harbaugh, Mike Frable, that's what it feels like to me. It's a mess. I've said before that I'm willing to change

my mind if I get new information. And I was thinking about watching the Packers tonight. About, I'll give you an example of something I radically changed my mind on. So I would say 40 years ago, I liked the Olympics far more than the World Cup. And the reason was is that 40 and 45 years ago, when I'm, you know, 15 years old, 20 years old, college student, high school student, and as somebody that absolutely loves sports, you didn't get three straight weeks of sports. You didn't have this proliferation of regional networks. and local networks. You know, when I was a kid growing up 15 years old, you got an NBC baseball game of the week. You know, I lived in around Seattle. I couldn't get Mariner games except on radio.

You couldn't watch Mariner games. And I, you know, I was a kid from divorced. We didn't have the money to go to Mariner games. It was a two and a half hour drive. I lived on the beach in Westport, Washington. So, you know, like once every five years, I'd go to a Mariner game. So the Olympics, you know, for a sports obsessed 15 and 20-year-old, was three straight weeks of sports. It didn't matter that I didn't care about the sports. At that point, I'd never skied. It didn't matter.

I'd watch the Winter Olympics. I wasn't in track. I didn't care. I'd watch the Summer Olympics. It didn't matter. I still don't care about Olympic sports, most of them. But it was three straight weeks of sports. And then you have over the course of the last 40, 45 years, this proliferation of cable and, again,

all these networks. I can turn on my television any day of the week and get 20 games. I mean, you can fish around on, on, you know, a Tuesday and get, you know, during the baseball season, I can watch every baseball team. So the Olympics now today don't feel as special to me because I didn't care about the sports in the Olympics then or now, but the fact that you got three straight weeks of sports was really unique. Now it's not.

And so now you could have the Olympics. I'll watch the opening ceremonies, maybe a couple events. I just don't care, but I love the World Cup. Some of that is I worked at two networks with World Cup and soccer analysts and experts. So I'm around more soccer people. And frankly, you know, every four years, you know, it's something new. It's something fresh. I mean, how many NBA games?

How many football games can I watch? The quality of soccer is great. I know more about soccer. It doesn't matter if it was the other place or Fox. I'll watch more soccer. A lot of my adult friends have given up baseball and they're more soccer fans. On a Saturday morning, they'll watch English Premier League. And I have a lot of friends like that.

I've also gone to Europe more in my life. So I'm just more into the World Cup than soccer. I've totally changed my opinion on that. And this is where I get back to the Packers. I always thought not having an owner was a disadvantage to the Packers is that having a Stan Cronkey who can literally, as he's on the tarmac, true story. of flying out of the country can tell Sean McVeigh, all right, go for it. Go get Matt Stafford. Like, you know, it's going to be expensive. I'm going to pay for Jared Goff in Detroit and Stafford in

L.A. Let's go for it. Big advantage. But I'm watching the Packers tonight and think about this. 10 of 32 teams in the NFL, 31 percent of the NFL, has five wins or fewer with a couple weeks to go. So the Saints have five, and they'll lose tonight. Carolina, the Jets, and Chicago have four, four and eleven. Vegas, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and New England are three and twelve, and the Giants are two and thirteen. So that's ten of 32 teams. That was only five last year. It's doubled. That is a really, really large, bottom and unwatchable part of the NFL. Feels very much like the NBA. It really does. I mean, 30% of the NBA or more is unwatchable. And I think there are two reasons for that. Number one, more and more because of rule changes and culture,

quarterback just means more. I mean, there's only one great quarterback in the NFL that's not going to make the playoffs, Joe Burrow, cheapest owner in the league, terrible defense, shaky O line. And he's still fighting for a playoff. spot. They may make it, statistically very little chance, but they may make it. He's the only great quarterback that won't make the playoffs. If you have one, you're in. If you have a good rookie quarterback, Jaden Daniels, Bo Nix, you're in. Michael Pennix, my guess now, is going to win the remaining games for Atlanta, they'll be in. If you just have a competent rookie quarterback, a PennX down the stretch, Bo Nicks, Jaden Daniels, you're in. So quarterback's more important

than ever. And number two is billionaire owners now, the poorest owner is a billionaire. And it wasn't like that 10 years ago. And billionaire owners are less patient. Firing a staff and having to pay $45 million is more of a rounding error. And so you have more chaos among coaching staffs and more chaos in the coaching community. So between it's more quarterback-centric and more impulsive owners, you just have more hot messes in the NFL. And I'm watching tonight. I mean, I'm one of these guys that can sit down and watch almost any NFL team. Giants, unwatchable.

Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas, hard to watch. Carolina with Bryce Young, I can watch a little. Jets Aaron Rogers, I'll watch. Chicago, I'll watch. Saints tonight, unwatchable. So it's just interesting. It's something I've really changed my mind on, is that having an owner, I always thought was a huge advantage. But I think Green Bay going forward, having no owner, because I now believe because of the impulsive nature of billionaires, richer owners, less patient, more impulsive, there's only about four to five great owners.

I think the Hunt family in Kansas City is excellent. Stan Cronky with the Rams is really excellent. You know, Robert Kraft, people will argue he's frugal, but a pretty solid owner. But there's a lot of average to below average owners right now. There's more good quarterbacks and good coaches in the NFL than great owners. And I think going forward, you're allowed to be much more patient. I mean, you're allowed to sit Aaron Rogers on the bench for three years and grow. You couldn't do that if you had an owner. No way.

You could have a first round quarterback and not rush him onto the feet. The owner would be herping every year. There's no way you could have Jordan Love sit for three years as Aaron was getting prickly and high maintenance and passive aggressive. An owner would have stepped in and said, ship him, let's play the kid. Just why do you think Green Bay, more than any NFL franchise, can keep using this formula, drafting, you know, high-end quarterbacks first round and not playing them for three years? You could not do that. Even with a good owner, you couldn't do it.

there'd be too much pressure. I mean, I think you'd be surprised how often owners listen to sports talk and listen to fans. GMs are too busy to listen. So are coaches. Players don't really care. Billionaire owners who have people under them want to get the temperature of fans in the media. And, I mean, there's no question that New York media is influenced. Woody Johnson influenced by the New York media, firing Robert Sala.

You know, nobody, everybody was banging on him. And if Woody Johnson's not listening, his kids are listening, we've heard stories about Woody Johnson's kids having influence. So I think it's a real advantage for Green Bay going forward. And I do not. I believe strongly in this. And I never used to think it is that as the wealth and the net worth has gone up 10 times for owners. You don't have to worry about Brian Gudenkoontz, Mark Murphy, who are they answering

to? The Packers Board. And it's, you know, not a lot of power there. So, you know, I'm Washington Green Bay, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they have been able with the last two star quarterbacks to just let them sit for three years. No way in the world could you do that with an owner, even a good owner. So tip of the cap to the Packers. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in all the basketball, football, hockey action at Draft King Sportsbook. It's the season of giving, so we're being gifted college football and basketball, pro football, basketball, pro hockey to almost 24-7. It's an absolutely great time of the year. So a lot of games every day, so many opportunities to place your first

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And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast for people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funny. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying,

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in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we can. get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch life becomes about wins and losses steve burns dustin ross because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're afraid because that's two different intentions bro absolutely and that that's two different levels of trust

i want you to just really be a good person join me keir games is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness.

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Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, here we go. Another edition of Sharper Square, Chad Millman Cows, to the favorites. I will have a couple of college games in here as well because I think some of the lines are working our favor. By the way, I enjoy the college football playoff. You know, first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect going forward the second round will be receded.

That would be my guess. It will expand to 14 or 16 teams. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the tournament. What say you? Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this. One, the first point you just made, every year in March Madness, the first round has, you know, 16, 14 blowouts in two great games.

And then like, but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand the field. And then all of a sudden you're going to expand the field and there's going to be a MAC team that ends up upsetting a Big Ten team, a 12-5 scenario. You're going to have that in college football one day. I don't worry about it. Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana, and after SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State,

I was in a text chain with a bunch of IU buddies, right? And I was saying, you can guarantee right now next year over correction for SEC and strength schedule. Right. You get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big Ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get who cares out of the Big 12. And you'll get Boise State, right? Because you won't get the at-large team. You won't get the third Big Ten team because now the committee is too scared because of all these blowouts. So now you're going to get just the SEC. And when those teams are blown out in the first round, then you expand and you're like, ah, we're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we get some upset sometime down the road.

That's my take. All right. So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start with the NFL. Broncos plus three and a half. Head coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious.

I think people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is. They can't stop people. Offensive coach, extra time. Listen, they outplayed the chargers for the first half. half. And, you know, then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over. This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half sharper square. So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow. The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game. Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and make brilliant plays like he's

Superman because he was going to get sacked. He's pirouetting into full-on dives and throw in touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad that he had no choice but to look like someone who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of holds the ball. That's kind of his MO. He wants to throw the ball down field. He wants to get it to Higgins. He wants to get it to Jamar Chase. I would want to do that too. So it's not entirely his fault. He's playing into what he thinks will get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they don't have Dorian Thompson Robinson,

who, by the way, almost got the Browns to cover that game. That's how bad the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some stats about Bo Nix that should make you feel more comfortable about this, because I bet it at three and a half. Bo Nix against bad defenses. So defense is below the 50% threshold across a variety of metrics in the NFL,

of which the Bengals are won. 7-0 straight up and against the spread, 29 points per game, 13 touchdowns, 2 interceptions. The Broncos are ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the board in all DVOA metrics. Like it's overinflation on the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals,

Joe Burrow, looking like a superhero, literally. Another game that jumped out to me, I don't like to bet, I don't like to bet bad teams, but the Saints, probably the worst humiliation in the league this year. A standalone Monday Night Football game didn't score, and it almost looked like they quit.

Now they're at home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team, Sharper Square. I don't even know what to say. Colin, in all the years we've been doing this, I will come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here, and try to get you to bet the ugliest team in the wrong.

worst game and you're like, no, not betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we came on the show and I was thinking, all right, what game am I going to get him to bet that he's like, I haven't asked about it? It was the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the fly and think of a new game. Of course we're betting the Saints here. Like, they're getting, they just got blown out in prime time. Humiliated. Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players. It doesn't matter who their quarterback is. They're at home. They're as a dog. They just got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play that team. On the other side,

the Raiders, look, they beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a 10-game losing streak, and the Jags kept turning the ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet on the Raiders as road favorites in this spot. Give me the Saints. Now I got to scramble and think of what my other game I'm going to try to get you to bet is. Well, I like the Falcons plus floor at the commanders, and the reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was a hero at the end, but he just tried to give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is really good. I think they have a good offensive line. We'll hold the commanders pass rush off.

Four points is a lot. I do not. I think the Falcons are going to be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title. All right. This is a big game for them. So this is not like the commander. And the commanders aren't going to get home field advantage.

The Falcons can win home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just seems to me again, it wasn't that they just beat the Giants. It's not just that. But Pennix's accuracy. Greg Kossel talked about it this week. This kid has an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like the Falcons plus four sharper square.

Totally sharp. boy, guys bet this down from four and a half to four. I'd be surprised if it isn't at three and a half or lower by the game. A lot of the reasons you just indicated. Michael Pennix had a lot of fans into the draft. A lot of professional bettors. Don't forget the draft has become a huge betting event. Professional bettors are digging into game film from college the same way they're digging

into game film on a week-to-week basis now because there's a money-making opportunity. There's a market, right? Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar from Jaden Daniels. Not dissimilar from Bo Nix. Not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams. A ton of film on the guy. He played a lot of college football.

And some of the reasons why these guys who are coming in and having success is because they played so many games, we saw how accurate he could be. I love watching Pennock's throw. Like, I think his ball was so pretty. And also, I don't think in a primetime game, he is someone who would be cowed by the lights the way other rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college football national championship.

That's a big game. I don't care if it's in college. Like that has huge stakes. So he's been in spots. He's older. I like it too. A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The bill slept walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England.

So you get those when you're a dominant team. The Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now you've got Aaron Rogers is not sure he's coming back. There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last six to eight weeks. But I think Buffalo is a significantly better team. Jets are a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson is unhappy with his targets.

I think Buffalo flexes here. I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs flex and play brilliantly as favorites. There's a separation. You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm going to take Buffalo minus eight and a half off a horrible winning performance sharper square. So it's a little square. The numbers moved. You know, it's moved in the Jets direction.

I can't fault you if you want to do this. Everything you just said are all the reasons why. I was on the bills last week. I thought they'd want to flex. I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson, throwing five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP.

It didn't happen, right? Drake May was running. He was throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario. I lean into the bills again, to be honest. I feel like everything you just said about the Jets is true. which is why I would want to back the bills. Aaron Rogers had been healthy for the past three weeks.

He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck. I was all over the Jets last week. Wise guys were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in the Jets because the decision making of Jeff Elbrick is so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to go forward and forth down,

situational play, clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal on fourth and four from the Rams 12-yard line last week, they're up 12-6, and that's the ball game. Like, the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went for it on fourth downs, and that's basically when the Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on the Jets because Jeff Albrecht is just so bad at this. One more NFL game.

This lines move back and forth. Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the Bucks. Tampa's the better team. But I'll make the argument in the last month. Bryce Young is playing like a number one pick and C.J. Strouds playing like a number two pick. The Panthers can move the ball. They've got a good coach. They can move the ball.

Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win. But division game, a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one. or square? Totally sharp. I haven't understood this line all week. The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and a half. It went down to eight. Now it's at seven and a half because money has been coming under the Panthers. I think you're good until seven, you know, at seven, you just sort of leave it alone. You want to get the hook off of that key number. A lot of games end on seven. That's when we talk about key numbers. Three, seven, those are the biggest ones.

what's interesting about this game is a month ago, they played it in Carolina. Tampa was a six and a half point favorite on the road, won in overtime because Chuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal range for the bucks, right? So now you take this game to Tampa. Tampa's only a point and a half better when the line came out, went from six and a half to eight, right? Normally, home field is three points. What that's telling you is two things. bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers.

They started off one in seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional betters have been betting, betting, betting the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young 2.0 is everything you just said. He's rolling out of the pocket, using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits. He's been great.

He's been a really good quarterback, much better than C.J. Stroud, like you said. So bookmakers have adjusted to that. To me, eight was still a little too high. Wise guys agree. You're sharp. Take the Panthers. A college football line that jumps out to me. I don't believe you can win a national championship with a bad defense.

That's why I think Texas and Ohio State probably play for the Natty. And I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad. Boise State ran on it. Ohio State did whatever they wanted on it. Penn State did whatever they wanted against the ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because it was in Columbus. But Ohio State has played in the Rose Bowl before.

Weather's not a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch. It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye Sharper Square. Yeah, look, that's the sharp side right now, right? And that's where the money is. And when you see money and sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State, which lost to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day. The fact they beat up Tennessee the way they did, Oregon has been out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a lot of about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said. So that's the way the money has been going in this game.

Look, it's fascinating. It's rare. You're going to get the second ranked, third ranked, whatever it is, team to be the favorite over the number one ranked team. But that's the spot we're in because of everything you just said. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was...

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letter help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happens. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo.

Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

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Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen, kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering our meaning, businessman, catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world. He doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey.

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All right. There's a game I want you to kind of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six. It's now six and a half. Arizona doesn't travel well,

so from time to time, the Rams can feel like a road team at home. This won't be one of these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach. The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're better than the line. That Jets game was built for them to lose.

Early game, cold weather, good defense, and they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like at 6 to 6.5, I have to bet the Rams. I know it's divisional. Sharper square if I like the Rams. Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams, but this is sort of the nuance of the betting business, is getting the best of the number. This game on Sunday night opened Rams at minus 4. So I'll do the favorites with professional better Simon Hunter on Sunday night on the volume

podcast network. We'll do it, go on air at 7.30. We'll do it live. We're off air before the Sunday night game. The timing is relevant here because we will preview the games that we like the most. First glance, you know, gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week. This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the Rams minus four. Why is this number solo. The Rams just got out of a trap game against the Jets and they won. The week before, they got lucky. The Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a monsoon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against a team that is down. James Connor injured. We saw him practicing, but still limping. Offensive linemen injured, not a very good defense. A coach who doesn't

know how to keep his team up yet the way, say, Sean McVeigh, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys Against the Bucks. The number during that show went from four to four and a half to five to five and a half. 30 minutes, it moved a point in a half. By Monday morning, it was six. And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet the Rams now, because the wise guys been betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five, five and a little bit at six, until it got to six and a half. It got to seven. And Wise guy started betting the Cardinals at seven.

Again, the Rams are the right side, but if you want to win as a better long term, then you have to have enough discipline to choose the best of the number and then walk away if you don't feel like you're getting it. You could still bet the Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning, but it's not going to be a sharp side. at six and a half. All right. I got to tell you, I've had a lousy year betting,

but so far I've got seven of eight division winners. I pick a surprise playoff team every year. It was the Washington commanders. I pick a team that will double the Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said this on the air today on TV on FS1. There's the old saying with kids, the days are long, but the years fly by.

And I feel like with the NFL, week to week, it's crazy, but over the course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had a terrible year betting, because I tend to take underdogs and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites, but a lot of favorites of one. I'm trying to think, I missed badly on the Jacksonville Jaguars, badly. But I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said to you, give me your whiff and the one, you'll plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year. Oh, it's interesting.

The whiff started as the Panthers just because I loved him. I just thought this team, this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line more than anything, I just thought they were going to be much, much better. It ended up being a whiff

because they started off so badly and I lost so much on them early in the year. I'll take a little bit credit that they got better. And so I'm glad about that. To me, the one I'm most proud of is the Chargers. I love Jim Harbaugh. And we didn't even talk about that game.

I think he's a football savant. And I think that what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason why his teams turn around so quickly, no matter the talent level. He knows the rules. He knows stress. He knows clock management so well. What he did at the end of that first half against Sean Payton, who's a brilliant coach, was a master class, right?

He takes the time out so they have to punt. The punt leads to the roughing the returner, the personal foul. That leads to the free kick. That leads to the chargers having momentum and they win that game going away. That's good decision making. and you don't see, that's what you don't see from Jeff Albreth. It's what you're not seeing from Jared Mayo. Like, you see the difference there.

So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because I thought they'd be good this year, and I played it that way. By the way. I also tell you, the bet that I always love the most, which I'm still in play for, I always do sort of a round-robin on the teams that are at 12-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl.

and I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups because you can usually get those at like between 20 and 35 to 1. So you bet the Chiefs in the Lions, you bet the Chiefs and the Eagles, you bet the Ravens in the Eagles, you bet the Ravens and the Eagles, and you bet the bills and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals, I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So I always like that bet and feel good now that the Chiefs, Chiefs and the Ravens, at least, are two of the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions, and I feel good that those matchups are still in play. Chargers minus four at New England, as long as we're talking about Harbaugh, I tend to like

teams favored. J.K. Dobbins should play Gus Edwards out. Which side of you lean? Oh, I totally lean Chargers, and this is walking into a Hornets Nest. Like in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right? In any other year, we're playing the Patriots here. We're playing a team that's out of it, at home, more than a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the spread in this scenario, the underdog is the right play. But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh is a brilliant coach. I think that teams are making more aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points.

I think that the fact that most teams are starting field position at the 30-yard line is getting them closer to scoring and the other side of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth and four from the 40 going forward instead of kicking a field goal. And so I think that's one of the reasons why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score at a higher rate in bigger chunks. And it's impacting betting. Like, bettors are not having a great year, you know. Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year, just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since 2013.

teams getting over 60% at the spread. So we talk about fading the public. We want to be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting over 60% at the spread covering 56% this year against the spread. Home underdogs, 43% against the spread this year.

That'll be the third least profitable season since 1990. So for people like you, people like me, I want to fade the public. I want to bed home underdogs. That's usually where the value is. It's been a rough go of it, man. Chad Millman, co-hosts of the favors.

Good luck, buddy. Good luck to all of us. The volume. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick.

And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired.

of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hiring.

You just understood. That's how personal again. Yeah. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to you. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your husband is not who you think he is. Your body is not what you thought it was. Your identity is formed by a secret history. I'm Danny Shapiro. And these are just a few of the stunning stories I'll be exploring on the 14th season of Family Secrets. He kind of showed me. out of the way and said, move, and he went out the front door and he jumped in a car and drove off, and that was the last time I saw him. Listen to season 14 of Family Secrets on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed.

And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit, season two, is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority black city in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people. Listen to Rebel Spirit season two on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.