The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast Prime Cuts - TNF Reaction, College Football Picks, Sharp or Square, Big Ten > SEC?

Episode Date: September 7, 2024

Colin’s top takes of the week! Colin reacts to the NFL season opener with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens by the length of a toe (3:00)! He explains why Lamar Jackson can’t get hit that much, why the Chiefs have solved their “weapons problem" and why he’s not selling his Ravens stock (6:00). Then, Colin breaks down two of his favorite college football matchups of the weekend, Colorado vs Nebraska and Texas vs. Michigan and makes his picks for each (11:45)! Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a season opening edition of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for Week 1 26:00- Cardinals vs Bills  28:00 - Panthers vs Saints 32:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers 33:00 - Broncos vs Seahawks 34:45 - Jets vs 49ers  36:30 - Colts vs Texans 38:15 - Rams vs Lions Finally, Colin talks ball with John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out”. They break down a huge opening win for USC over LSU (47:30), debate whether the Big Ten or SEC is the better conference after realignment (49:30) and weigh in on the restrictions Tom Brady faces as a broadcaster who is seeking an ownership stake in the Raiders (52:30). (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Again, create an account. The redeem code is Colin, C-O-L-I-N for 20 bucks off. Download Game Time today. What time is it? Game Time. If you wonder why the NFL is king on television, 27 to 20 tonight was a great example. Decided by that much. A toe decides the game. Listen, Baltimore was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for two and the win, and that's why Baltimore is so dangerous.

You know, Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down the field. effectively, nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much last year because it was one of the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy now, that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver. Juju Smith-Schuster will become more productive over time. He just got reacquired. So Watson, Rice now, Rishi Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy, a 9-10 catch guy, but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an over-the-top playmaker. But it's interesting

watching Baltimore. They had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early in the game. They don't throw the ball down the field enough. And then you get that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where, I mean, it honestly, he reminds me of like a great high school player where he's just so much better than everybody else on the field. He's like a high school football game and there's one D-1 prospect and it's the quarterback. And he's just running around. making all these plays happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic. And that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes. And Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady. You know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods and Berkeley wasn't MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive.

He cares so much. Now, I thought my one real negative with Lamar Jackson, you can't get hit that many times. I'm sorry. You can't last 17 games in the regular season, two or three playoff games playing like that. Lamar's lost weight. He's thinner. And he took a beating tonight. Now, I think this game means so much to Lamar. He's not going to slide. He's not going to run out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this, this sort of physical football game on average. But he took a beating tonight. And that Kansas City defense is fast and physical. That you have to reduce. You can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to the very end.

He is such a remarkable player. You know, he just, he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently, but he finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that that guy went down in the back of the end zone, I thought he broke his ribs.

I mean, he just slammed down on the corner where it's not, you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays. What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes over the course of the game. I think here's the really good news for Kansas City.

Last year, it's often discussed, right, ad nauseum. That receiving course bad. Rishi Rice was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a great one? Is he a top five one? Is he C.D. Lamb?

Is he Devante Adams? No. But he felt like a real go-to, high volume. 13 targets, nine catch guy for them. They have now Noah Gray. They've got a second tight end. Watson's around. Juju Smith-Schuster.

And again, Xavier Worthy. You know, I joked when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy. He's 165 pounds. You know, I don't think that he's going to lead them to the Super Bowl, but he adds a dimension to an offense that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat. So, you know, for the longest time in the game, he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown.

but blown coverage later, he gets a second touchdown, and you have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line. Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody scared you down the field. Well, now they have a one in Rishi Rice. They have a downfield threat. They have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelsey. They've solved their weapons issue.

For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pacheco? What did he drop to the seventh round? How did they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane. It's amazing to me. You get to the 14th player in the NBA draft. You're out of players. Brock Purdy's the last guy I'd taken and Isaiah Pacheco, I think he was a seventh round guy.

God, how did all these GMs watch film and just keep passing on him? He's impossible to bring down, run so hard, he can catch it out of the backfield. What a weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapon shortage, they're going to be fine there. And this is, you're just looking at two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led 20 to 10 at one point.

I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing. They weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas City, and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know, if you watch that game, you could say, yeah, Kansas the city controlled big chunks of it, and here comes Lamar. Just putting the team on his back, taking too many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just an all-timer, just an absolute all-timer.

But, you know, sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events, Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over like 45 tour wins, didn't he? Take out one guy. Take out Barclay, and it changes, take out MJ. It changes Barclay's career with titles. Take out John Elway's career. Joe Montana, Brady.

There's so many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that on FS1 today. God, Lamar is just so unique and so gifted. But he took a beating tonight and you just can't play that way. With Baltimore and Kansas City tonight, all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like, I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You know who matches up in the AFC?

Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons. Adding Joe Mixon, Stefan Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud. Like, I'm both these teams tonight. I mean, it's tight ends. It's wide receivers. It's slot guys. it's running backs, it's all-time quarterbacks.

You know, Buffalo is, I like Cook, a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo may be what Kansas City was last year. And they may be weapon short. And that's why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston. I mean, at some point, last year may have been the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field. They couldn't beat you in a track meet.

They had to keep the games pretty close and low scoring. Now, this team's back to, I mean, again, this is Worthy's first game. What's Xavier Worthy going to do in week eight through 13? Week 10 through 17. So last year may have been the year to get Kansas City. What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around.

Now, I may be staring at the ceiling. one in the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight. I ordered DoorDash eating some Mexican food and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean, this is how good is this? Arrowhead, Mahomes, Reed, Harbaal, Lamar Jackson. And I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play particularly well. And it was this close. So you can sell all your Ravenstock. I'm buying it. I didn't think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense.

You know, because of Reed and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense, it'll just never get the love. It is so fast, so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well. That's it. Or Baltimore probably goes for tune as a chance to win. When you don't play particularly well on the road in Arrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried. these two will meet again. That's what it feels like to me. One of the more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Dion Sanders and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shadur Sanders for the Buffaloes are the two best

players in the game. And they alone may be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is, if you go to last year, Nobody lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They needed a couple transfers. They needed to get a little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if it was Iowa. It was Maryland.

It was Michigan State. They lost by a field goal. It felt like every week. And they were shooting themselves in the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors, five junior start. And that matters. a lot of starts against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't loved for the last

couple of years. Again, Colorado's got the two best players in this game. Maybe the three or four best. Depth, experience, I like Nebraska. The other thing is that Colorado has, by and large, last three matchups is one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I tend to look at programs I think there's baby steps. I think when you take over a program, first of all, the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing the gap. Nebraska last year, close losses. Generally, those kind of teams the following year start turning those into close wins. And then the following year, if you have the right coach and the right players, you have decisive wins.

I don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule. I like Nebraska by 10 points. I think their defense, though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadur Sanders, he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I almost feel like if Shadur Sanders, if you're going to judge him just on football, he can be the number one pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball moving, pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward,

he has tremendous ball placement. And he's kind of what everybody's looking for. He can win in the pocket. He can win off script. So I think Colorado is going to score some points to be a handful. But I think Matt Rule situationally is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion may be a better recruiter.

But, I mean, Nebraska was, I looked it up this morning, top 30 in tackles for loss last season. And now this defense, six seniors, five juniors is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Rayola. They like him. They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Schroor Sanders, but he's fine. Nebraska at home, more experienced defense. Matt Rule losing close to now winning close.

I'm going to take him by about 8 to 10 points here. A little 33, 24 kind of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers. All right. The game of the day, it's on Fox, is Texas, their first ever meeting in the big house against Michigan. And it's remarkable to think about two brands that big that I've never faced in the big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not.

They were hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of 11 offensive starters, a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top offensive linemen. And those were also, in many instances, leaders. So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural vibe of the tough this physicality will remain, even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but for a year, you couldn't tell the difference. I think there's a lot of momentum, program momentum for Michigan. But they just lost too many

leaders and too much firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that will be able to win a certain way. I think Texas can win anyway. Shoot out close. They're better at quarterback. Now, they lost three receivers to the NFL. But it's Texas, it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him to differentiate, in some instances, starters from backups with Texas.

And we tend to rush to a judgment with these high-profile coaches. A Kiffin, a Sark, a Lincoln Riley, a hardball. You can't, this stuff takes two and three years, even with big brands, to get up to speed so you're in the Ohio state. state class. You're in the Georgia and Alabama class. This is the first time I look at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end last year. Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that. I think Texas has a chance to play for the national championship. I think they bring back more experience. That offensive line for Texas now,

that's some first and second round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts. And Quinn Ewers from, from diet to his play on the field is a little bit more structured to me last year than what I saw initially. I was not a big fan initially, just played too loose, too J. Cutler to me. I like Texas here. Now, again, I think it's a pretty low-scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders, air at home. Even good college teams can struggle away from home.

I looked at this morning. It opened at Texas minus four. It's now Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback.

I think you're going to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early, intimidating, Big House. I think they pull away late. A little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple years. Physicality leaned on them. Late third quarter on,

you're going to feel like the better team, the better roster. The better chance of the national championship is Texas. I like the horns here by about six. NFL week one is here and a new season means new ways to get in on the action at Draft King's Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL. So fans have spoken. They want to bet on touchdowns.

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Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

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or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and a TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you

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We're big time. All of our odds provided by draft kings. I spent a lot of time this summer in, you know, in a place out east. Yes. Very close to where you live. I played a lot of golf. And during that time, a lot of time to think about odds. And I almost did not do a first week of this.

My take has been the world's changed. All these sharps pick at these line one odds. They have all summer to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is a terrible week to bet. And then I look at the numbers this week, and I'm like, it may not be the best, but I got a couple I like, and I'm going to start with one of them that I'm being warned about, Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo. I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the end of last year.

I think the last couple of drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray. I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for. He's like nobody else in the league. He's like, to me, he's a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and a half is not only the play. I think they could win Sharper Square. ish.

Like of all the games I'm with you, I'm with you, brother. I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in week one. Arizona is a team. I'm not going to lie to you. Wise guys love. They think that in the NFC West, they love Seattle,

they love Mike McDonald as a coach. They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked down. got down to six. It was much higher even during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I think there was some over-exuberance on the Cardinals. And don't forget, this is the kind of game that the bills historically,

not just cover but dominate, right? And so there are so many unknowns in this game, professional betters they are going to lean towards underdogs in week one, and that's going to be a theme for everything we're talking about and I've got a lot of numbers to back it up for folks. But this one is trickier. I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it goes back down to six, probably no.

Don't forget six has become a lot more of a key number with extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't give you a definitive. I can say if I got to play a side, I'm playing Arizona. But I don't think it's blazing by any means. Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out. Good, let's warm up.

Let's just warm up. The one I really like is Carolina plus three and a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is poorly quarterback and poorly coached. I think they'll be the first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver unit last year, worst in the league next to New England, they've actually upgraded so starters are now backups.

And it's like, oh, Mingo can be a three or a four, not a one or a two. I looked at Carolina, I'd go money line. I think they win this game straight out, sharper square. Dude, you are Ginsoo Knife Sharp right now. That is, you have gone from kind of me, mid, as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp. Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network, we have been hammering all offseason. We had been hammering their season win total over. that jumped up from four and a half to five and a half.

We've been hammering their odds to win the division. Everything about this team last year, and you and I talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing called luck rankings, which basically takes all of the randomness of football and puts it into a formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL.

That is always bound to regress in sort of very analytic terms. They won about a game and a half less than they should have based on the stats and the randomness of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right? They've got a couple of new guards. They've improved at receiver. They've improved their coaching.

Let's be very clear. Dave Canales, the new head coach. Yeah. He was the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from Journeyman to Pro Bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from Journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now all of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated. This line was at four and a half.

It's gone down to four because wise guys are betting it. And you said it about the Saints. There was a survey before we got to preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about their team? It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has the shortest odds to be fighting? first, Dennis Allen. Who is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now? Derrick Carr.

Dennis Allen and Derrick Carr, in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against the spread of any grouping for the past 20 years. They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as a head coach with a minimum 70 games, which is what he has. So you are spot on. One stat for you. NFL division underdogs in week one since 2014.

So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints, 71% against the spread. Not only that, they covered the spread by an average of five points per game, which largely says, I agree with you. You could take a little bit of a taste, and I never mind this, like a quarter unit on the underdog to win outright. All right, weather concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are. Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden

Daniels. Dan Quinn was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator. I think this coordinator, I talked to a GM that hired him, Steve Kime. He said, Cliff is great. He said, I don't know if he's an NFL head coach. The discipline is an issue. But is an NFL coordinator, or a college coach, he said, I would back him forever. This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's personnel is fine. Tampa's guessing, I think they pull back as a team this year, Tampa. I'm going to take commanders plus three and a half, sharper square.

Yeah, it's sharp. I mean, it's not the favorite. Like, if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend, this is probably seventh or eighth, right? I will be playing the commanders, but this team right now, I just talked about the luck rankings. the Buccaneers, and you noted there's going to be some regression, the Buccaneers were amongst the luckiest teams in the NFL last year,

and the commanders were one of the 10 most unlucky. So just the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think, in a higher than it should be point spread because of perception, right? The commanders, number two, number three overall pick, the Buccaneers, they made the playoffs, they had a good run.

They have lost important aspects of that team specifically Dave Canales. Baker 14 and 26 in his career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take the commanders. So the wise guys are with you. An interesting game.

I don't like big favorites in the opening week. And I think Bo Nix and Sean Peyton are going to be excellent together compared to what the market predicts. I think there are a seven-win team, not a four-win team. Do not like them here.

Rookies starting week. one on the road against a very sharp, maybe the next D'Amico Ryan's defensive coach. Seattle, I like Pete Carroll last two years. They underwhelmed. They have better talent. I mean, offensively, it's Noah's arc. Two receivers, two tight ends, two running backs, two tackle. I like everything.

I think Seattle minus six is the play. This is a rough spot. And I like Boenicks. This is a rough opening week. I take Seattle minus six. Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. historically rookie quarterbacks on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks on the road, average 18 points per game the past 10 years.

It is not a good spot. There is a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They loved the game plans he put together when he was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing here is just a little bit of a difference in talent on the roster. Historically, wise guys, they don't like to bet against Sean Payton. Like, Sean Payton is their favorite coach. Right.

Along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's in the spot, like they look at him not as a rookie head coach. In a lot of ways, the way that people looked at D'Amico Rines last year, they got a lot of faith in what he can do. So wise guys are with you. I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half against the Niners. It's a noisy game, the baggage bowl. but Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost Huff to the Eagles,

but I don't worry too much about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line, especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win, but God, I don't get the line at all. I would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper square. Totally sharp. What's really interesting about this, Colin, is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a full point from three and a half to four and a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe Trent Williams was worth.

They have steamed this line up and wise guys are happy to take the four and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the 49ers. That's the weakness of their team, right? And even with Trump Williams, who was probably the best left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in the way he can move the ball around that they're able to get away with having an offensive line that is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. And I agree with you about Hassan Radick. The guy hasn't played for the Jets at all. So they don't really know what they're missing.

And obviously, Bryce off being gone is an impact. but they have a stout defensive line. They will find a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line. The wise guys love, love the Jets in this spot. Okay, finally, a game I missed, I am betting you. It's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colts plus the point, is it?

Of course it is. I knew it. I love Houston. I knew it. Yeah, it's 100%. The Colts plus. I think you can get them plus three. Some places plus three and a half now.

This line was two and a half, 48 hours ago. The public is steaming in on the Texans and the wise guys are buying on the cult. And look, it's a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like 17 games a quarterback since high school. I know.

Right? And then you got the Texans who look like they are all world. But I do want to give some context here. the Texans do not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured the Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshu

playing the majority of the games last season. I think Shane Steichen is a genius of a coach and what he did with Minchew and what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant and I think the level of play that the Eagles had last year in offense

and what you saw from the Colts is a direct correlation between Shane Steichen being on indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there. Also, to repeat, division underdogs, 37, 15, and one against its spread in week one since 2014, that's 71%. This is a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued Texans team. I want you to just give my audience something here. just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I think the Rams, the last two years, last year and this year are undervalued.

But their O-line is a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVean Stafford, getting three and a half against an average defense feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot. I don't like their O line. Hutchison had, according to, you know, all the lion news, they're like, he's now the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just tearing it up. I look at this line, I think McVeigh, Stafford, plus three and a half,

but there's something that tells me, stay away. Educate me. Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game. The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's called our Big Balls, Bed of the Week, and it's the bet we know is hard to make. but you 100% have to have the courage to make it. This week, it is the Detroit Lions minus three and a half over the Los Angeles Rams.

And who likes to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've given you all these trends. But here's the thing about these trends. 58%, 61%. What that really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an edge if you bet it long term. What I'm trying to do here is thread the needle and catch a falling knife

where the other 40% of the time it doesn't work. Right. And so look, I love the Rams and we have made so much money on the Rams the past couple of years because I do think Matthew Stafford is probably the most,

if it's possible, the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation of top three, top four, and he should. If there was a great video this off season, of C.J. Shroud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch,

it was Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer. And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was out and turned Puka Nakua into an all-world receiver, he is brilliant. And I really want to bet the Rams. But here's the problem. And I want to fade the lines because the variance is so high when you're betting on a Dan Campbell team

because of the way he goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you as it did in the NFC title game. and when the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet, they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line. They look at the defensive line.

That's where they start. They don't start on the edges. They don't start with the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of the few teams with top five offensive line, top five defensive line. Penae Soel on one side. Then you mentioned Aidan Hutchinson.

I bet Ada Hutchinson, 14 to 1, to lead the league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how this guy has gotten better and better. And last year, he was dominant. No matter what this situation was, no matter how often he was being double-team, he consistently got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack. So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait a second, Aaron Donald retired, offensive line for the Rams, in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start the season in his career. Jared Goff, 25 and 9 against the spread indoors. Jared Goff, the most profitable

quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell, the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years. I know, like, it's hard to bet on a more than a field goal favorite in a game that ended as a very short win for the Lions last year in the playoffs. I think the lines have gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less, a little bit worse, because their talent isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior. And that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected.

We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in. connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimen Aposal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with the Adamania Riva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate

Midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that Ness was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45. How hard can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard. Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter,

and dive into it unfiltered and unbothered and ask, How Hard Can It Be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of My Cultura Podcast Network available on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. American soccer is about to explode. The World Cup is coming.

Ramos sending on to Ernie Stewart. I'm Tad Ramos. I'm Tom Boe. On our podcast, inside American soccer, you'll get the real storylines. I'm not worried about Policic. I'm not worried about Balagan. I'm not worried about McKinney. My only concern is what happens in the back.

The biggest decisions. If you're going to look at stats and numbers, he has no shot at making this World Cup team. and the truth about the U.S. national team. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals. The World Cup is almost here. Experience it all with us.

Listen, Inside American Soccer with Tom Bogart and Tab Ramos on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast. So one of the things, John, that really jumped out to me, and I said this to start my rant, is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations, no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational football in the red zone, very good two-minute drives, handled timeouts well, no turnovers.

Again, very few penalties, two freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns, alignments were great. I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight, really. really buttoned up, John, the whole offense is freshman and sophomores. I thought they looked great. Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the next seven days. Loud and clear. Pound that table. To me, two things really stood out. First and foremost, the size of the defenders, I would say over the last decade, they felt small. They've had a guy or two here on defense, but for the

most part, they've had too many guys that look like me. You know, on the Pete Carroll Hayday and all these SEC teams, the visual they showed of the transformation of the body types during the game. I mean, guys going from 230 to 260 in an offseason was evident because the LSU team has come. They got a top 15 tackle. They got another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in the top 30. The wide receiver, number two, looks like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys everywhere. USC tackled.

Physically, they didn't get shoved around. and I think what really changed is the last two years with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he was Steph Curry or LeBron James it was kind of like an individual not a team and it worked two years ago

last year of backfire because the defense was so terrible didn't they feel like a team didn't they just feel like a group of guys that there wasn't one necessary I mean everyone was making place that they felt like a total unit and listen you were hammering this

I didn't believe Miller Moss clearly's pretty good. He's definitely tough. And Lincoln had the boys ready. And they, they could have folded there in the second half. And it was LSU that folded. That's why Brian Kelly kind of snapped after the game. So the Big Ten went 17 and one. And this is something I thought about. Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state, it makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon, and USC to the the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade. I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harbaugh's gone,

after Ohio State, if I said the next five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington, like, I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah, always counts, I think in that foursome. But with the right coach, USC Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams. Every time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Newheisel, Chris Peterson, Kailen DeBoer, they vie for a national championship. So it's like, I don't think people understand.

It's Texas, Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any given year top 12 programs to the Big Ten. may it be a better overall conference now? I think over the course of time, I think this year, there's going to be a lot of reaction to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin. I mean, I'm going to give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I mean, that game was really weird.

It was a mess. They play Boise this week. They better kick their ass and kind of get after it because that was bizarre. The quarterback play, I didn't know that much about him. I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from Los Angeles, that's Tennessee's quarterback. I got lose for you, that guy's pretty special.

Jackson Dart, Old Miss, they're pretty good. Obviously, the two quarterbacks, the quarterback, Dylan Gabriel's at Oregon, because they told him you're not going to start. Jackson Arnold's going to start. He's pretty good, too. Their high-end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty, obviously Carson Beck and Georgia. Over the course of time, I think, you know, USC's only going to get better if they keep looking like this over the next two or three years.

Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of question marks about. Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four, five, six, seven group of their team. Penn State, you feel pretty good. Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting scouts all weekend long. I mean, their front sevens full of NFL guys. And if that quarterback takes a big step, that game got like delayed for 25 hours.

But they could be a serious factor. I mean, a serious factor this year. So I think the high end of the Big Ten and the SEC, it's pretty clear that though, Miami, me, I would still kind of red flag the quarterback can be up and down, but they're pretty talented. So I think the Tom Brady situation is fascinating. I had people asking me in the airport about this. I went golfing and I had a couple people ask me about the story that he's going to be, you know, he's trying to be a Raiders owner. And if you're a Raiders owner, there are limitations on what you can do in the NFL. Had you heard about that? Had you heard about that before, like in the halls?

No. No. And so, and it's one of those things that that's above my pay grade. That's management. but so for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think the production meetings is a big deal. I think, have you been watching this stuff that Brady is allowing people to see the binders he has from every single season, everybody he ever faced, his preparation is, even compared to people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally next level and he just got off the field. I don't worry about any of that. The only part of it that concerns me, and it only may happen once every two weeks, eight times a year, that you may have to call it the officials and go, that's a blown call.

Now, replay helps reverse a lot of miss calls. So again, it's not the 70s, 80s. But when I read all the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip, but be question officiating. Listen, I like my announcers. I think once everyone started getting on Romo, Troy Aikman kind of got his swag back, and he'll light into somebody. And I like that. Now, some people maybe like a more rosier glass, but here's the one thing.

There's 20, 30 million people watching this game. When stuff's screwed up now at football, you have a pretty good idea. And people don't like to hear rose-colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought it's not only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams. Like I, to me, the restrictions that I read feel like, God, part of my big question mark with Tom, because he's heard him on your show, he's awesome. I mean, his ability to speak about complicated stuff. But I was like, let his true personality come out that he's known as a great teammate.

Part of that is being one of the guys, obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult. It will not be difficult for him to get the coaches and the players on the phone. That's right. call him back. That doesn't feel like a deal. That doesn't matter at all. That stuff. Peyton talks about that sometimes on Monday night. I talk to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. Him and Peyton get anybody on the phone in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him not being able to do that. If that's really serious, couldn't you argue? And listen, I'm as pro-capitalism

as anybody. But this feels like it's going to be pretty tough if he one day actually, he's just never allowed to do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job if there are legit restrictions because it's easy this year, but what about five years from now when you have some coaches, you know nothing about? Those production meetings do hold some value, right? Yeah. That's one thing I'm not saying to like divest from the Raiders because that's a pretty good investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult. Fox is giving them almost $400 million.

Yeah. And again, I rent all the restrictions. And listen, I'm I'm a corporate opinionist. So essentially, I have strong opinions for companies, ESPN and Fox that have have rights with everybody. And my take has always been, I can say pretty much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal. I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or Adam Silver. Even now that we don't have the NBA, I try to be fair with people, even when I'm critical of people. Like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield, I've said he is a top 20 quarterback. I think he's a

great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people. I root for the guy. I thought he was immature when he came into the league. So I try to qualify stuff. I don't want to be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners. I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk.

I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to me was the officiating because, and again, Tom's such a prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff. But that one, I think what it would be, it wouldn't affect. him, but it would mean a lot of bad press for him and Fox, and I think corporations don't like that. The volume. Thanks so much for listening.

If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host Care Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.

And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to, listen to learn the hard way on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy, far, far away, such as the biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement. to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.