The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Raiders/Rams TNF, Baker’s Best, Week 14 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’

Episode Date: December 9, 2022

First, Colin reacts to Baker Mayfield improbably leading a 98-yard final drive in his Rams debut to beat the Raiders, and if it was the most impressive win of his career. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 14 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Dolphins/Chargers (15:00), Browns/Bengals (17:00), Panthers/Seahawks (21:00), Vikings/Lions (23:00), Jets/Bills (25:00), Jags/Titans (27:00), Chiefs/Broncos (29:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to another instant reaction on what was three hours of absolute Drek, Baker Mayfield, television star, big time personality saved the broadcast, saved a night of dreary football. My takeaway was I was absolutely rooting. for Baker Mayfield to drive at 98 yards for a winning touchdown. I'm in the story business. It's a great story. And, you know, everybody knows my history with Baker Mayfield. I think that's honestly the most impressive win of his career, and I'm dead serious.

He won a playoff game. Go back and look at that Cleveland roster. The O line was like number two in the league, Nick Chubb, David Injoku, good receivers. Miles Garrett, that was a really, really good roster. And they beat kind of an old Big Ben, you know, kind of a wobbly Steeler team. This was impressive. Ben Scoronic was his go-to receiver tonight, a second year pro who was fourth or fifth on the depth chart, missing multiple offensive linemen.

That's impressive. To walk into a city. new playbook, new coach, new system, new teammates. I mean, nobody really knows Baker, fist bumped a few guys. I mean, Kirk Herb Street said, I've been in town. He goes, I got here Tuesday for a speaking engagement. I've been in town longer than Baker Mayfield. To walk in and kind of, you could tell throughout the course of the game,

Baker Mayfield was just getting the information from Sean McVeigh, and instantly relaying it to his team. And I imagine as Baker moved to the line of scrimmage, McVeigh was telling him kind of what the play was going to precisely look like. Raiders had, because of Max Crosby, a decent pass rush. It's not a great defense. But that loss, even by Raiders standards, worst of the year for them. They're now probably on the outside looking in for the playoffs

because they end the year with the Niners and the Chiefs. So they really, really needed this win. But that was really impressive by Baker Mayfield. The other thing is, you don't really, I mean, what makes sports is the stories. I mean, everybody loves their home team and everybody dislikes the rival to the home team. But the reason we watch games beyond our favorite team or the team we grew up with is the drama, the chance for upsets. I mean, the Raiders were hot. The Raiders were healthier. The fact the Raiders could not pick up a first down on third and one, you don't deserve to be a playoff team. You don't deserve to win

that game. But what made tonight special for Baker is, it was a great story. A lot of his faults and problems are his. I mean, let's be honest. He couldn't step to the podium for his weekly press conference in Cleveland without pissing somebody off, right? Like he just wasn't quite ready to be the face of a franchise. He had more commercials than touchdown passes seemingly. He didn't have great judgment. It was my knock coming out of college. And in the end, he just ticked off too many people.

Andrew Berry, the coach, teammates, and it unraveled. And then he goes to, you know, Carolina and, you know, they want to see Sam Darnold play. But you had to root for Baker Mayfield tonight. Come on. I mean, the reason we. watch this stuff is upsets and drama and stories outside of our favorite teams we grew up with. That was a great story. And not only was it a great story, because of the multiple holding calls on the Rams tonight, Baker was 22 of 35, 230 yards, a touchdown, no interception. I'm not exactly

sure. He had at least two, but I think three other really nice completions that were negated. due to holding calls. And Baker's always throwing a pretty good ball when he can set his feet, clean pocket. That's never been his problem. You know, he gets a little squirly sometimes when he's moving or he rushes things, his judgment. But if he can set and throw, I mean, you know, he was a number one pick for a reason. Set and throw, let it rip.

He can be accurate. But, you know, there's sometimes, is this ever true for you? Sometimes the more I get into golf, start taking lessons or I start playing more. my golf gets worse. I'm overthinking. And then I'll take like six months off. I'll go golf for the first time in the summer. It happened this year in Rhode Island. I played the best round of golf. I've played like four years. I just went out and played. I didn't overthink it. Baker was playing tonight on adrenaline, a little anxiety, a lot of nerves. Didn't overthink it. McVeigh said, here's the play, relay it, step back and let it rip. And it's impressive. It's impressive.

I'm serious. That's about as impressive a moment that Baker Mayfield's had. I mean, listen, we all know the playoff win in Cleveland for people in Ohio is going to go down as a very memorable day. That's a really good team. That's a really good old line. That was a really good roster. This ram offense is, I mean, Baker Mayfield made the Rams watchable. You know, we saw this a couple nights ago. I was thinking about this with Brady. Struggled. And then his last two drives. You know, the defense goes into a little pre-vent. The defense is on the field. You start giving up, you know, seven, ten, 12 yards.

Defense on the field. End of a game. Defense gets tired. Suddenly the defense, you know, the Saints against Brady, the Raiders against Baker gets a little more vulnerable, a little more gas. You're asking, you know, You're asking these big guys to be on the field, those last two drives, after three and a half hours, Brady and Baker Mayfield. When's the last time they were mentioned in the same sentence?

But you had to root for Baker tonight. I mean, that was fun. It really was a lot like that Buccaneer Saints game with Brady. Just drag until the final two drives. It really was. I think from this point forward, anytime you mention Baker. You should also simultaneously mention Tom Brady. That's the new rule in broadcasting.

Tom Brady, Baker, Mayfield. Baker Mayfield, Tom Brady. Where to go, Baker. You know, we live in the same hometown now. Could you invite him on the volume? An excellent guest. I'm not sure he accepted. He's going to be busy actually learning the playbook.

Isn't that amazing? I mean, think about, speaking of Brady, when Brady moved to Tampa, he literally held secret practices that were taped by a helicopter, like 10, frantically trying to learn the playbook with a loaded roster. And 12 games in, all those practices, Brady was 7 and 5, the protection was bad, he was screaming at teammates. Baker Mayfield is in town with a bad roster. He doesn't know, he can't spell Ben Scoronic. His best receiver, he doesn't know where he went to college.

He's never seen him play. They've probably never run, you know, they've never run in-game routes, obviously. And Baker Mayfield was pretty accurate tonight. When he had reasonable time to throw, it's pretty accurate. And Raider fans, I've supported you all year, you earned that L. You absolutely earned every inch of that L. That was bad. And I've been on the Raiders bandwagon all year.

That was awful. That was just awful. Tip of the cap to Baker Mayfield. All right. Time for Sharper Square. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Fandil. By the way, before we get into our picks, I think a really fascinating situation. I'm going to throw this at you. So I do mock drafts all day. I got no life, right?

And so in this league, often you will get really good players having a down year. They get hurt. Bad system. Rarely do you get average players having a great year, Gino Smith. I am betting against him next year duplicating this, right? So you're Seattle, you're the GM. They have two firsts, two seconds, a third, two fourths. So those are seven high quality picks.

Do you, would you, give up a third for Jordan, love who will be 25 bigger than Bryce Young, more talented than C.J. Stroud and more season than all of them. I would give up a third for him, still have two first, two seconds, two fourth. I wouldn't draft a quarterback because I think, here's what I think, Chad. If you look at that roster, they have two needs. Nose tackle, their first pick, Georgia. Looks like the next Fletcher. Cox. And then you can argue center or another receiver. It's a good center and wide receiver draft until about late second. I wouldn't draft a quarterback. I would go get Jordan Love with the third. Been in the league, good coaching, behind a star. Is he any less talented than C.J. Stroud? He's five

inches, four inches bigger and heavier by 25 pounds than Bryce Young. What would you do? as GM. Quarterback is such an important position in the NFL. You have that much draft capital. I would be as aggressive as possible. Package Gino Smith, maybe in number one, maybe in number two, try to get as close to the top of the draft as possible and get a player at quarterback who you believe is going to be your generational talent. I would not do it with Jordan Love. I think there's enough tape on Jordan Love from practices and preseason games for GMs to understand who he is at this point.

And also know that Aaron Rogers, when they're resigning Aaron Rogers, they couldn't have believed in Jordan Love. Because if they did, the same way the Packers were like, we got to get Aaron Rogers start playing. we got to get rid of Brett Farv. If Jordan Love was that good, Aaron Rogers wouldn't be there anymore because he's a pain in the ass. So I disagree with you.

Remember, Seattle does have Denver's first pick. So they're going to have a top five pick without giving up anything. Then, by the way, I'd stand pat. There are multiple quarterbacks who could go top five right now that you believe could be of that kind of talent to be perennial pro bowlers, you don't need to go trade for a guy who's three years in

that a lot of people don't think is the next guy. I wouldn't do it. All right. As they say, you know, I'm pouring cold water on your hot take. All right.

Well, I wouldn't be the first guy. So I like, I've been very much an underdog guy all year. I'm going to start with a favorite I like. Everybody now pouring cold water on the dolphins. No, no, no, no, no. Missing both tackles against the best defense in about six years in the league. The chargers are poorly coached, inconsistent O-line and receiver.

Miami's a real team. We overreacted to that loss. The fact they were competitive late is impressive. They were missing both tackles against the best defensive front in the sport. I think Miami is better coached. State out west bounces back as a favorite minus three. Really like the dolphin, sharper square. Not only do the wise guys disagree with you on this.

on the favorites pod today. This was what we call our big balls better than week. You got to have balls if you want to bet the Los Angeles Chargers and a team that's been banged up with a really big coaching deficit because I agree the Dolphins are just much better coached than the Los Angeles Chargers. But the Chargers as dogs are different than the Chargers as favorites. The Chargers is dogs. There's so much variance in how they play, what their play calling is.

There are complete wild cards in a game that probably can be a shootout because I do think that the dolphins are struggling with injuries and the numbers three and a half so you're getting the hook. Right now, this is a total Pro's Joe's game with the squares on the dolphins and the wise guys on the Chargers. All right, let's go back to dogs, which I usually like. Deshawn Watson's going to be better in week two than week one. Divisional game plus six.

They've had their number. Bengals off a wildly crucial watch, disgust game over the Chiefs. Pull back a little. Browns plus six or five and a half, sharper square. Great number, totally sharp play. Divisional game, playing against with the Browns, a team that did horribly against a team that is even worse. in the Texans.

This game probably should be lined around four, but there's inflation on the Bengals because they are now the public darling. And what they did to the Chiefs, which we talked about, love the Bengals as two and a half point home underdogs. It's exactly what we thought they would do. But now the market is so overinflated on the Bengals,

you have to take the Browns in this. another one where there's a huge discrepancy. You've got a lot of tickets. Tickets are usually indication of the squares or the public coming in. They're all coming in on the Bengals, but the money coming in on the Browns. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

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Visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. I think my favorite bet of the week as a dog is the Panthers plus four at the Seahawks. I think this team plays hard. I think they like Sam Darnold. I think Seattle struggled to put away what is currently an awful ram. team. I think Seattle is a better story than a team. People buy into sometimes stories and narratives. This game to me is last second, not shocked if Carolina wins. For the record, Brian Burns, rookie offensive tackle, watch out. I like Carolina plus the point sharper square.

Totally sharp. Complete agreement on this. Seattle's really been struggling the past few games. Kenneth Walker, he looked like the odds on favorite. He was the odds on favorite to win offensive rookie of the year. Last three games, that running game has been struggling. He's injured, did not practice on Wednesday. His backup is injured, did not practice as well. They're in a lot more third and long situations, which does not play to Gino's strength. And you're right about the Panthers. When Baker Mayfield isn't the quarterback for this team, they're a mediocre to decent team. Defensively, they're really good on explosive plays, defending explosive plays.

And J.C. Horn, he's had 361 coverage snaps this year. He's allowed 138 yards. He's great. So he's great. So if you look at like the other side of it, we just said the Seahawks need to run the ball, but they're going to have a hard time doing it. So then you've got a lockdown corner who can take away D.K. Meckaff or Tyler Lockett. So now you've basically eliminated all the things that the Seahawks can do.

I think the wise guys agree that this is a good number and they expect it to be a close game. Vikings getting a point and a half, all odds provided by a Fandul, still a better team, more balanced than Detroit. Detroit off a big win feeling themselves. It is still an absolutely awful back end of the defense, even if they outplay Minnesota. Minnesota's got that veteran quarterback, lots of weapons. This is a classic. I just don't trust Detroit as a favorite. I'll take more stability, at least a defense that can occasionally situationally make some stops.

Sharper square, I'll take the Vikings and the points. You are playing pretty square on that one. I don't agree that you can say the Vikings are a better team than the Lions. In fact, if you look at the numbers, look at the advanced metrics, which is what wise guys like to do. They don't do total yards on offense, total yards on defense. They like to look at the next level. They look to look at the metrics that tell you the story of the game regardless of what the final score is. So one of those metrics is called DVOA, right?

Lions 13th overall in DVOA, Vikings 20th. Lions 9th in offense on DVOA, Vikings 18th. Defense, Lions 19th, Vikes 18th. And by the way, since the Lions came out of the by, and since they fired their defensive backs coach, this is a team that statistically, offensively and defensively, is pretty much the Cincinnati Bengals. And everyone thinks the Cincinnati Bengals are now going to the Super Bowl.

So the reason why you have a team that has a much worse record that is favored at home against the team that is leaving their division by many, many games is because the professionals feel like the lions are probably a better team than the Vikings. And the fact you're getting it at one and a half is a really good number. I recommend you take it. Sometimes I don't understand numbers and I stay away. But I actually think when Mike White's at quarterback, it's a reasonably capable offense. They're now getting 10.

Revenge is overrated in divisional games. I think Buffalo is a good team. Ten against the Jets defense seems awfully optimistic. I would take the points with the Jets. I think they're a real football team, Sharper Square. Believe it or not, it's square. So right now, the number of tickets, the Jets are the public underdog in this game. So you mentioned the numbers of 10.

it was at nine. The tickets are coming in on the jets, but the money, the professionals are on the bills. And so we've had what's called a reverse line move. That's when the preponderance of tickets are on one side, but the money is on the other side and it moves in the direction of the money, not in the direction of the tickets. And I think one, people believe Mike White is a better quarterback than Zep Wilson. But now you're getting tape on Mike White. You've got six games of tape in the past couple of years.

It's easier to figure out who this guy is. I think the wise guys feel like the bills will be able to scheme against him differently. And I also think they believe the bills are getting healthy. And look, what they did against the Patriots 10 days ago was really impressive to beat a team that people thought was on the ascent in the Patriots and do it convincingly on the road in a short week. that's not easy to do. You don't do that often in the NFL. So there's a lot of enthusiasm for what the bills can be right now. All right. Time for I'm not sure what to do with this game. I want to ask you Jags plus three and a half at the Titans coming off a humiliating loss. Vrabel off a humiliating loss. My guess is at home they play or their arse off. But I didn't bet it. Tell me the side,

Sharper Square? The sharp side is the Jaguars if there is a huge Trevor Lawrence question right now. He injured his toe. Is he going to be playing? I think the expectation is that he will be playing. What you do by beating the Titans is you, by beating the Jags is by throwing the ball. The Titans don't have a downfield threat. Traylon Brooks is not expected to play because of the concussion protocols.

And the Jags have a really good rush defense. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, let's say Trevor Lawrence does play. The Titans defense is crushed by injuries, especially in the secondary. They're just like, they're playing guys literally off the street right now. So you're buying a little bit low on the Jacks because what happened with the Lions, they got completely blown out. And the Titans need to win by a margin. It's not like one or two points.

They need to win by more than a field goal. That's actually when you fade Ravel. So the wise guys, if they get Trevor Lawrence, are going to be in the Jacks. Okay. Now try to talk me into a game. For the record, last week, the minute the game started, I knew you were right. It was Denver.

And I looked at them again this week at nine and a half and I'm like, God, I hate it, but is that the game? Last week, I begged you. I begged you to bet the Broncos and I begged you to bet the Rams. I'm going to do it again. Not with the Rams. I'm going to beg you, beg you. beg you to bet the Broncos. I will have more money on the Broncos this week than any other game.

Forget about the teams. Let's just say you put your hand over the franchises. If you blindly bet, home underdogs are seven or more. The last 20 years, they cover 56% of the time. And by the way, when I give that number, it's not like, oh, they win six times out of 10. that's a 400 plus game sample size. It is a lot of games, right? Take it one step further.

You've got a team with a 65 plus percent winning percentage. That's Kansas State Chiefs against a team that is losing game, that is winning at 25 percent or less. Their winning percentage of 25 percent or less. Since 2016, those winning teams, the teams that win, are covering at a 36% rate. Okay? That's terrible.

Let's take it one step further. And there's a reason for all this. Patrick Mahomes in November and December in his career is 32 and 5. Against the spread, 17, 18, and 2. The reason why all this happens is because when you get later in the year, you have bigger favorites. The bigger favorites are always the teams that have won for two straight months. They're the Kansas City Chiefs, right?

And so they're inflated. The public is going to come in on them. Bookmakers know that. So you are always getting extra value when you fade, when you bet against those teams because those teams are so beloved by the public. Monday night football, Patriots Cardinals. Be my betting buddy, Colin. I know it's hard.

I told you, I hate betting bad offenses. terrible betting is terrible Patriots Cardinals who would you take I'd probably take the Cardinals it's interesting we've talked about this

like when we do the podcasts we do one on Tuesday we do one on Thursday but in those 48 hours we get a lot of calls from professional betters who like to talk about the games that we were talking about

and sort of give us their take and we call it sharp calls and there are a lot of sharp calls as we like in Arizona It's a little bit because the Pats seem to be in some offensive disarray. I think that we're talking, and we talked about this a couple weeks ago with the Cardinals prior to the by. I liked him as dogs against the Chargers and that covered. It's because they were finally healthy.

Like they got Hollywood Brown. They got DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been all worlds since he came back. You're just getting a better look at that offense. And the Pats, if they struggled with anything defensively, it's been with Russian quarterbacks. So I favor the Cardinals. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, good to see anybody. Good to see you too, my man.

I'll talk you later. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dremont Green Show. I brought Dremont Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dremont Green Show wherever you get your book. podcast only on the volume podcast network.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.