The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rodgers "Darkness" Plan, Super Bowl "Sharp or Square" with Chad Millman

Episode Date: February 8, 2023

First, (3:00) Colin gives his take on Aaron Rodgers’ offseason plan to decide his NFL future after isolating himself for four days in total darkness, and the real reason the Lakers were never going to land Kyrie Irving. Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman joins Colin for a Super Bowl LVII edition of "sharp" or "square" and where to find the best bets on the board for Chiefs/Eagles. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the test content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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57. All right, everybody, Chad Millman in about eight to ten minutes, sharper square. It's really, really interesting. He's got a bet, a prop, and I'm not a big prop fan. He's not a big prop fan. He's He's got a field goal prop. I love. I think I'm going to bet it. I want to start with this. Aaron Rogers announced that after the Super Bowl, he is going to isolate for four days in the dark.

He said multiple friends have done it in a tiny house, somewhere probably in the woods, where he is going to get as close to. Aaron Rogers as he can and that hopefully fundamentally through meditation, through isolation, he will come out with an answer on what to do with his life. You know, my takeaway is I like meditation. I don't think people as a rule give themselves enough time. We give our time to our kids, our spouses, our friends, our job. We don't give ourselves enough time to just heal. decompress. So I'm a big believer in meditation. I try to do it a couple times a week or more after my show. I go into a dark room for about 45 minutes and just close my eyes. Sometimes I turn on a sleep app, sometimes music. Sometimes I just close my eyes. I think it's really healthy. Now, the messenger, Aaron Rogers, is unique. I think a lot of people do this. A lot of

of artists do it. Maybe not as many farmers. Maybe Midwest people think it sounds too Hollywood. But it's the strange part isn't what he's doing. I wouldn't be comfortable for four days in total darkness. But I think the strangest part about it, he's a star quarterback. And we're just not accustomed to that. You know, we tend to like our athletes.

We don't like to think of them as lost or trying to find themselves. We like them. to know where they're going, where they're headed, straight ahead, strong, alpha, powerful. And that doesn't mean you can't be that if you're Aaron Rogers and go hide for four days. I just think he is a person that we don't identify as somebody that would do that. Now, I do think Aaron is single, never married, no kids, really rich. and as Bill Simmons and I have discussed before, I've known people in the media as they get older,

never married, no kids get odd. And they become the center of their universe. And it's all about finding themselves and about them, themselves, me, my journey. How do I manifest it? It's a little obnoxious. But I think the bigger issue here is it's a quarterback for a really popular NFL team

and it just sounds different and we're not really accustomed to it or used to it. So I'm all for meditation though, whatever it takes. I just, I don't think we give enough time to ourselves. You know, I see people with four and five kids. They're like taxi drivers. They're Uber drivers. They're all weekend long. They're shuttling their kids to this.

They're shuttling their kids to that. And my takeaway is, when do you give yourself time? You don't. And so I wish all of us, I think people would be happier, less angry. if they just chilled out, cut their days in half, meditate every day. Now, I know that's unrealistic for a lot of people, but it's not unrealistic for Aaron Rogers. You know, he has enough season, even in season. He's, you know, he's been doing this for a long time.

You don't have to teach Aaron a lot. He gets a game plan. He comes equipped every meeting with institutional knowledge. So it sounds kookier than it is for young people of financial means. I think a lot of people do this. They go on journeys and they go on escapes and, you know, the ayahuasca stuff. I'm in my 50s. That sounds like crazy town to me.

This married, kids, career sounds like crazy town for me and my life. But people think I beat up on Aaron all the time, but he's a different cat. That's okay. Not every quarterback's the same. Some are big, some are tall. Some run, some don't. Some are pocket. Some are mobile.

And some are ethereal. Some meditate, some don't. I mean, Russell Wilson's personality is way different than Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees and Aaron Rogers is much different than all four of those guys as well. It's okay. Shape, sizes, personalities, it's okay to be different. Odd for me to do it, I mean, I'll be honest with you. Not that I'm scared of the dark, but I don't think I have to discover much.

Like, I think I know what I am and where I'm going. I think after about three hours, I'd be like, and I'd give myself time. I think I'd be like, all right, I'm hungry. I want to go in the light and get a yogurt. So I was told by a source that I trust and have known for a long time, somebody that has a lot of connections through the world of sports and the world of agents. He's very connected to agents. that as Laker fans bag on Rob Polinka for not pulling the trigger on a Kyrie Irving move,

that Joe Sy, the owner of the Brooklyn Nets, was so pissed off at Kyrie Irving that he signed him to a contract, believed in him, trusted him, committed to him, did everything he asked, and was so infuriated with, with Kyrie's vaccine stance, not playing through injuries, how he had disrupted and turned this hardened Kyrie KD situation into a mess, that he refused. He would not trade Kyrie to the Lakers and LeBron, not because he hated the Lakers, because he refused to let Kyrie go where he wanted to go. He was not going to let it happen.

And so, listen, I've been very hypercritical the Lakers for years. I don't think institutionally they run very well. I mean, in the last 10 years, nine of them, they've been bad. And then there was the bubble year, which is kind of a outlier, odd year that they just, they don't have a lot of assets because they gave up a ton. When LeBron first got there to get AD, now they gave up KCP and Kuzma, Montrez-Herald, to get Westbrook. They just don't have any assets. But this was about Joe Sy, the owner of Brooklyn, so kicked off at Kyrie Irving that he didn't care. He was not going to be a Laker. Listen, this stuff happens. Billionaires hold grudges. I just saw the other day where the Phoenix

Sons have a new owner who owns a mortgage company and everybody voted in favor of the new owner and the Cleveland Cavaliers abstained in voting. Why? Because the Cavaliers owner, Dan Gilbert, owns another mortgage company. And so, you know, they're rival mortgage companies. So it's okay. Like, you just have to come to terms with billionaires are aggressive. They can be very territorial. And in this instance, I don't blame the owner of the Nets. Listen, I understand I don't like mandates, even with COVID. I'm not, I said it a hundred times on the air. I'm not a fan of mandates. I think people should be able to do with their body, what they choose to do, even if it's ill-advised or misguided. And I got the vaccine and one booster, I'm done getting all of it.

I've done it. At this point, if I get it, I get it. I no longer wear masks. I don't think they're hyper-effective. So what's the point? Unless I told I have to. But if I hired an employee at the volume, big compensation, you're part of a team, and you covered the NFL and you refused to work the NFL play.

I would be upset. I'd probably be semi-bitter. And so you can't blame KD for this mess. He's been the best player. You can blame Harden for it, but he came in out of shape to begin with. So that's sort of on the Brooklyn Nets. And he had a history of difficult to play with. But Kyrie was the fascinating piece because he had played so brilliantly at times with LeBron James. And though he didn't work as the go-to star in Boston long term, he was very good as a teammate with LeBron James. And as a teammate to Kevin Durant, you could make the argument. It was going to be a pretty compelling team in the East. The hardened thing, come on, I wouldn't have made that move. I get it. The KD thing, he's been pretty good. Hurt, but pretty good. Great, some nights. Kyrie was the essential piece, and he blew it up. I get it. Like, I know the NBA is pro player, and I'm okay with that too. But there is also. a responsibility by the player to not have to be 100% to play every night. You know, the great Kobe Bryant understood that.

There's a lot of kids. It's their only time they're going to see this year or the next year. And I think Kyrie, the criticism he's received is completely utterly justified. And you can't blame KD. He's been mostly great. And he can't blame Hardin because he came in out of shape to begin with. And we knew his history. He couldn't play with people, right?

Kyrie did play very well with LeBron, and they put a lot of trust in him, and he blew it up. Owners pissed. You're not going to the Lakers, and you're not going to play with LeBron, period. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

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Okay, right now, download Fandle. Use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-L-N. You can bet Super Bowl 57. with a no-sweat first bet. You'll get up to $3,000 back in bonus bets. If your first bet doesn't win, Fanduel lets you bet on everything. Moneyline, point spreads,

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1888-9-777, or visit CCC.C. pg.org slash chat, Connecticut, 1,800, gambler, or visit Fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Indiana, in Louisiana, 18777707-1-1-1-7. For confidential help in Michigan, 1877 H-O-P-E-N-Y, or text H-OPEE-NY 4-6367-3 in New York, redline, 1-800-8-9-9-Tennessee, visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Let's bring in Chad Millman, Sharper Square, C-C-O-A-O-A-T-O-E-L-O-Duel, so the Eagles, minus one and a half of the favorite. So I'm going to lay out who I like and why.

And I say this with no real conviction because I think it's a cliche now. Philadelphia has got more good players, but I get Andy Reed and Mahomes off a buy, virtually unbeatable. But I'm going to throw this out because I really felt strongly about Philadelphia early, but I don't want to outthink the room, but you do get more information. that Warren Sharp on social media today put out a graph of Jalen Hertz pre-injury and Jalen Hertz post-injury. Post-injury, he throws no deep balls and nothing to the right. Steve Spagnola has been in this game for two decades or more.

He knows exactly that before I saw it. So Hertz is not the same player. He is not MVP hurts. He is hurt and limited Jalen Hertz. I thought against the Niners, he had no touch. The short stuff was low, the deep stuff was long. I thought he played really poorly. Now, the Niners defense has a lot of saying that,

but he was absolutely off. Whereas I thought Mahomes with a severe injury looked great. So, you know, rest is, I thought he looked fantastic mostly against Cincinnati. So as we get closer to the game, I think that myself, am I going to bet against Andy Reed and a buy with Mahomes against a quarterback who could be planted about 70%. It's hard.

You know I like dogs. I'd probably take Kansas City in the points, sharper square. Remains to be seen, Colin, because of what you just said. I'm not trying to waffle. It's a really interesting game. But wise guys came all in on the Eagles as soon as this line. opened. The line opened Eagles plus one and a half. For the record, Sunday night, I'm sitting on my couch here in Connecticut. You remember beautiful West Hartford. I go into my phone.

I'm on the Fanduel app. I bet the Eagles plus one and a half. 15 minutes later, it's Kansas City plus two and a half. All the money came in on the Eagles. It's pretty much settled down. Like it got up to two, was that two for four or five days, now it's at one and a half. Wise guys bought back a little on Kansas City. The recommendation I would give, if you want to bet the Eagles, give it a few days. Because over the next four or five days, that is when the public is going to come in on Kansas City. That is what books are expecting. You'll be able to get the Eagles at minus one, pick, whatever it is.

You won't get him at his dog again, but you'll get him at pick. So if you like the Eagles, wait a few minutes. If you like the Chiefs, take them now, you're going to get both sides of it. I've heard more professionals liking the Eagles because of the roster that you just talked about. But they are all very wary right now that the number has stayed where it is, that it hasn't gone back up to two because they're waiting to see how Jalen Hertz performs and practices over the week. And until that happens, every bet I'm making is about something else. It's about the total. It's about MVP.

It's about rushing props. It's player props. It's officiating props. It's everything but the side because it's really hard to handicap it right now. I would probably take the over. And again, I generally like dogs and unders because the masses take the over. But 50 and a half. I think my takeaway is Philadelphia, since they're such a hot starting team, at one point,

could lead in this game. And that means Mahomes will throw more. In fact, I think Mahomes will throw over 40 times a game. He can go deep. He can go seam. He can go short. They can go clever. Andy Reid, buy. 50 and a half seems like a reasonable over bet to me, Sharper Square. Totally sharp. That's what the sharps are doing. The money has been coming in on the over. it was at 50 for about 15 seconds on Sunday night, got that down to 49 and a half, and since then, the money has all been on the over, all professional money. You know for the Super Bowl, early money is professional money because the public, there's so much buildup. It really comes to a crescendo as you get into Friday, Saturday, Sunday. So this number has moved from 49 and a half back to 50,

50 and a half, 51. It will get to 50. 51 and a half, 52 by the game. I think at 52 is when wise guys are going to start buying the under. Most of them have it power rated about 51, 51 and a half. So they're still buying a little bit of the over. I'm going to say this. I'm going to say one thing. I bet the under.

And I know I'm on the wrong side of this, like from a professional perspective, but it speaks to how you think about the game. The Eagles have the best sack rate in the NFL. the best pressure rate in the NFL. They are elite against number one receivers. They have an offensive line that has two Hall of Famers and is a dominant rush game. If you like the Eagles here,

then you have to think about the fact the game script is going to, and Jalen Hurts may be hurt. So you have to think about the fact, are they going to dominate the Chiefs offensive line? Are they going to dominate the Chief's defensive line? Are they going to control the ball? Are they going to keep Patrick Mahomes? off the field. All that, to me, says you take the under. And I can't understand why the professionals

love the over as much as they do. Sometimes I feel strongly about the way a game will look. Georgia TCU. I thought TCU emptied the emotional bag against Michigan. I thought they'd get crushed against Georgia. And they did. That one was easy to read. College is often easier. I do feel something, though about this game. If you're Andy Reid, Philadelphia has trailed rarely. They've been in close games infrequently. Even their playoff games are routes.

So if I'm Andy Reid with two weeks, I win the coin flip. I take it. I want to score first. I also, my fear, if I'm Andy Reid is, they bleed us. They run the ball. We can't stop.

and Mahomes sits on the bench. So I can see Kansas City going, we're going to unload some exotics early. We want to play with a lead. Now, Mahomes leading or trailing is the same quarterback. The numbers show you. That's why he's the best. The score is irrelevant.

It's not irrelevant. Jalen Hertz playing behind doesn't feel like the same quarterback playing with a lead. So the first half spread, I believe Kansas City feels it's essential to play in front. So Philadelphia cannot lean on a profound running game. Kansas City's running game is hit and miss. I don't think Philadelphia feels like if we don't get a lead, we have to alter the way we play.

So that makes me feel like Kansas City will be dynamic early in this game. Is there any line or any belief by the sharps that justify my feeling? Well, the Sharps like the Eagles in the first half. They like the Eagles on the money line in the first half. They like the Eagles as short favorites about minus one and a half is some of the numbers I'm seeing right now. You can get them at, you can get the Eagles at minus a half in the first half. The truth is the Eagles are a dominant first half team. And they're even better in the second quarter than they are in the first quarter. And in 16 wins this year, they were ahead. in the first half in 14 of them. So the game script, I agree with you, the chiefs get the ball, the chiefs win the toss. They got to get the ball and they got to score. But I don't think that scares the Eagles because there's a lot of time and it's not like they're going to have to put the ball in Jalen Hurts's hand at the end of the game if he's

injured and defeat a Steve Spagnolo defense who is so smart and so good at pressure. late in the game, they'll just keep running the ball. Like, it could be 10-7 at the end of the first half, and it still is going to be fine for them. So I'll throw a number at you and just are a theory. So this team was not the same team with Gardner Minshu. And they certainly, as a coaching staff, don't think they can win if Hurtz gets hurt and Minchu goes against Patrick Mahomes. Like, they know that, right?

It's not like Kansas City thinks they can win with Chad Henney. But, I mean, Minshu with this loaded roster couldn't win games. So when I look at the over under on rushing yards, Jalen Hertz, 49 and a half, I can see them being conservative with Jalen Hertz and saying, hey, listen, we'll run him late if we're forced to, but we're not running him early. I can see them being conservative. I would probably take, and by the way, if they did trail late, they probably. they probably wouldn't run Jalen Hertz anyway.

No. So 49 and a half rushing yards for Jalen Hertz, I think I'd take the under there is that sharper square? Most of the props have been pretty much in line with what the wise guys think they should be. I would say the over is the sharp play. Again, because people are worried about his shoulder. And you pointed it out at the start of the show. He just looked wobbly on his throws, right?

when he was most effective in that game against the Niners before it was pretty much decided is when he was running the ball. And that's also when he feels more comfortable. And that's how you start to loosen up a defense to give yourself more opportunities to throw down field when you aren't that comfortable with your accuracy because you might be a little bit injured. So I lean to the over. But again, that reveals my hand a little bit. Like when I go through my, all of my bets, and I'm still trying to figure out where do I want to be heavy on a side, if at all. The other bets I've made are showing me what I really believe, which is I bet Devante Smith at 31 to 1 to win the MVP. I bet Miles Sanders at 25 to 1 to win the MVP.

I bet Miles Sanders to lead the game in rushing. I bet the under, which plays to a positive game script for the Eagles. everything about me is saying, I think I like the Eagles in this game. I'm just having a hard time pulling the trigger on the side. But same with the Jalen Hertz. Like, I think the Eagles have a dominant offensive line. And that's going to help him take advantage of holes in the defense to gain more than 49 yards. So Kansas City doesn't get blown out when they're mostly healthy.

I think it's been 32 games since they lost by more than four. You can beat them. It's the way Buffalo and Cincinnati. Addy did. You can beat them. It's narrow. A lot of their games are closer than you think. Even their wins. At times as great as they are, I always had this theory that teams that are brilliant offensively, like the Warriors, they know they're brilliant. And it's hard to be urgent knowing that you can score 28 points in about four minutes. Kansas City, it's almost like sometimes Mahomes experiments. You know, it's like, I want to try something here.

So they're in, you know, I don't see Kansas City getting blown out. I can see Philadelphia sort of bleeding the clock. And I think Miles Sanders could be a really, really like that. So what was the line you got on Miles Sanders as MVP? That's a smart take by it. I got Miles Sanders at 25 to 1 to win MVP. That feels like a, you got a, that's a good number. Yeah, it feels like a great number.

I got Miles Sanders plus 150. to lead the game in rushing. And, you know, the flip side is, I also bet Travis Kelsey 16 to 1 to win MVP. And like these are just little flyers, like little darts I'm trying to throw. So I'm covering my bases on everything with small bites to win big,

which is not normally what I would do because I just have no feel for the side. I just, I cannot see the edge in this game. In any way, the bangles were the clear edge, right? Like it was clear they were the side to bet on as an underdog. I don't have it for this. I just like, nobody does.

People have an opinion, but there's no edge. Your opinion is based on how you think the game is going to play, not because the math is telling you there's an edge one way or the other. Well, I've thought about making Blazing Five, Blazing Four, and one of the reasons is I think betters are smarter. There's more information. There's more guys like you giving people information that when I do Blazing 5, I've said before, there's two games I love every weekend and one I'm pretty sure about.

But I called it Blazing 5, so I have to find two other games. Honestly, you know what I've bet the most on so far in the Super Bowl? Not the sides, not the totals. I'm going to read you my list here. I've bet so far this is my lineup. I've bet on, will both teams kick a field goal of more than 33 yards? I bet no. And even that, my logic plays to the Eagles winning the game.

I think both coaches are aggressive play callers. I think when they're in the red zone and they have an opportunity to score, they're going to go forward on fourth downs. I don't think they're going to take easy field goals. I think when they're on the opposite side of the field and it's fourth and five from the 30-yard line, they're going to go for it because they know they need to be scoring a lot of points in these games. They don't value the field goal.

Harrison Bucker, and this is courtesy of Sean Kernor, one of our analysts, Harrison Bucker, only kicked a 33-year-more field goal in seven of 15 games this year, 47% of the time. Jake Elliott only did it in 33% of his games. I'm like, yeah. And every year, by the way, the wise guys, they love to bet this field goal. prop. It has been for 20 years, I've bet this field goal prop, it consistently caches. It's a great one to also. Also, the Mahomes factor. You hear this constantly. You just got to go for it when you face Mahomes. But that's also to me, it's why I played the under because while the variance could be massive

because they might score more touchdowns. They also might score fewer points because they're not going for the chip shot field goals. And so there are four point opportunities there on a regular basis. I think that's the best bet I've heard so far. That's my, seriously. Well, the Mahomes factor. Mahomes has been so great late in so many big TV games. You almost seem like anti-analytic if you kick field goals. It's like, what are you doing? It's the second quarter. You go for it. Totally. It's totally true. Here's another one that was really fun. This was, We talked about this today on the favorites podcast. Over 10 and a half penalties.

So Carl Jeffers, who's calling the game, averages more penalties called than just about anybody else. So if you are over 10 and a half, then you're actually in an advantageous position versus otherwise playing the under. And there's value on that bet. It's at plus 125 right now. But that's what's fun about the Super Bowl is like, don't forget. You don't have to bet the side. Like you could find five great bets for Blazoned Five and not have to pick a side. Of course, you can't do that because you're calling and you get Tom Brady on your podcast, breaking news.

So you can't go on there and say, bet over penalties, bet, you know, will either team kick a field goal of 33 yards and bet the no? You can't bet like will two and a half, will over two and a half players throw a pass in the game? But I'm telling you right now, my biggest bets are over two and a half players. Field goals of will both teams kick a field goal of 33 yards? I bet no. And the under right now. And Sanders, most rushing yards in the game. Finally, speaking of Tom Brady, you know what my wife said?

She didn't know I was going to have Tom Brady. on because we don't talk about my business. She didn't care about sports. So when she saw that Tom Brady announced that he wasn't going to broadcast until 24, take the year off, you know what my adorable wife said? What did you say? Why don't you ask Tom if he wants to intern for a year with you and he could figure out the business? And I was like, I don't think I'm going to ask Tom Brady if he wants to intern for me.

I don't know how that would land. I disagree. I think that's a, it's a brilliant idea. And you know what? I might call Tommy and see if he wants to intern at the Action Network. How much smarter will he be in 2024 if he knows everything about how gamblers are thinking about the game? Colin, love this idea. Thank your beautiful wife for me.

I'm really looking forward to this. You know what? If you need to borrow them for like some data entry every once in a while for the volume, I totally let you do it. Okay, I'm going to give you a score. 27, 23 chiefs, 28, 23 chiefs. 28, 24 chiefs. I would prefer it to be 24, 23.

Because I have the under 49.5 and I got the chiefs at plus 2.5, plus 1 and a half, and the Eagles at plus 1.5. So if I can get a game that weighs on one in either way that is under 49. and a half. And there's a lot of penalties. And Miles Sanders is MVP. I'm golden. Chad Millman, Action Network, all odds provided by fan duel. This was fun. Thanks, buddy. Good seeing you. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like

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