The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Rodgers Demands + ‘Sharp or Square’ NFL Divisional Round

Episode Date: January 20, 2023

First, (3:00) Colin on if the Packers should bend to Aaron Rodgers' reported demands to guarantee his return, why the NCAA needs to give Jim Harbaugh a break, and the biggest reason the NFL has become so predictable. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Divisional Round picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Jags/Chiefs (19:00), Giants/Eagles (22:00), Bengals/Bills (25:00), Cowboys/Niners (29:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the test content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hi, everybody, and welcome into the Friday morning podcast. The Colin Coward podcast, that would be me, your affable host. So Chad Millman, off a winning week, I was three and two in the blazing five on FS1 and Fox Sports Radio. So back-to-back winning weeks, 55.5% for the year. So we're going to have my divisional round four playoff picks coming up. So I thought this was interesting. In my career, I've tried to never back management into a corner. But there have been, as I have gained popularity, concessions companies have been willing to make if I want certain time off or a certain number of people on a staff.

And the more popular I've become generally in any business, the more leverage you have. And, you know, companies will give me certain things. I don't ask for a ton. I'm not real high maintenance on this stuff. And it's understood in a lot of entertainment businesses. And let's be honest, I'm not analogous to Tom Cruise, but when Top Gun makes a billion four, there's concessions made. LeBron James, Tom Brady, they're concessions made.

But in order to get those in any industry, you've got to deliver on the other end. This is what's interesting. So Aaron Rogers wants concessions by the Green Bay Packers. He listed five offensive players, only one is elite, that he wants the Packers to bring back if he'll return. Alan Lazzard, Randall Cobb, Mercedes-Lewis, Robert Tonne in the tight end are not dynamic players. They're unrestricted free agents. So the Packers will have to pay more than they're worth to retain them. So the takeaway is, well, you get Aaron Rogers.

So I went back with my staff. And I said, what is the payoff for Aaron? Let's go to Aaron Rogers last 10, what we would call big games. And we tried to as a staff be very fair. He had five this year. The playing game with the Lions, Christmas Day at Miami, that Philadelphia game that was a standalone game, cowboy game at Lambo. And I think it was a Sunday night game against the Buffalo Bills.

Those were the five big. games. Now, he also lost to the Vikings in the opener. You could say the season opener is a big game, but I don't really count that as a big game. That would benefit my argument, but I didn't do that. So in those games, he had two wins and three losses. Then we went the previous year, and we counted the big games as the Niner game that he won during the regular season and played very well. The division round Niners game he lost. And there was a Rams game. week 12 that was, you know, billed as the big game on TV for Fox that he eventually won. We went to the previous year and the two games that felt big were the NFC championship and that

game against Brady down in Tampa. It was the first time they'd met. Brady is a buck. And so we went and we billed those as the 10 biggest games, eight regular season, two playoff games and the playing game for Detroit, we think, classifies. So Aaron wants all sorts of concessions. He wants five, four of which are mediocre, offensive players to return. So what am I getting for that? Tom Cruise concessions, Top Gunn makes $1.4 billion. LeBron for years concessions. You end up in the finals.

Miami made a lot of concessions. Got to the finals for straight years. So Aaron wants these concessions. Let's go to his last three years. What we classify is the 10 big games and here's what you get. He's four and six, 16 touchdown, 7. picks averages 230 yards. Those are Matt Ryan numbers. Those aren't close to Mahomes. Alan, Murrow, Herbert. They're not close. They're not close to the last five good games for

Trevor Lawrence. Aaron wants these concessions. He's not delivering championship level football. one of the reasons he's not as committed in the offseason. Other reasons he's not willing to play with new teammates, work out with them in the off season. But we thought this was incredibly fair. We went back as a staff and picked the 10 big games. I'm talking not one o'clock windows mostly. We're talking against Brady, Niners, playoffs, Christmas Miami. By the way, trailed big in that until Tua started throwing the picks.

Two of who had a concussion late in the first half. So if you're going to ask for concessions, you got to deliver ratings, box office, finals appearances. Aaron no longer is. Four and six last 10 games, 16 TD7 picks, 230 yards a game. That's not close to the top six quarterbacks in this league. So Jim Harbaugh has been interviewed now on multiple occasions by the NCAA. They're saying there are infractions they want to investigate. They call them incidents.

So Harbaugh says he doesn't recall the incident and is refusing to acknowledge to investigators that he lied. The story is there have been multiple meetings with the NCAA. An admission that he lied would likely be a multiple game suspension. And this is really my problem with the NCAA. What the NCAA should be in the business of is finding programs that are habitually deceitful, that are consistently deceptive. Harbaugh, according to the story, bought a player a burger in 2021. Now, time out. The IRS should be auditing people.

like Enron or Wells Fargo where there's a pattern of deception, not a plumber who rode off a trip to Vegas for a plumbing convention and probably ate three meals with buddies and not people in the plumbing industry. Come on NCAA. Jim Harbaugh doesn't cheat. My rule on this stuff is on an annual basis because of the depth of the NCAA rulebook. It's confounding and confusing.

The coaches should get annual mulligans. You buy a kid a sandwich. You give them a ride to the airport. That's not what the NCAA is in the business of. Like the IRS, they're in the business of Hugh Freeze at Ole Miss buying players. Really, you think Jim Harbaugh is your biggest issue? Come on now.

That's what you're concerned about. A hamburger in Ann Arbor? New rule. Every coach gets an annual mulligan. You stop off at subway, kids hungry, he's on the way to the airport. It's the day before the Thanksgiving weekend starts. Come on, NCAA. Anytime you have one element in a business that becomes,

overwhelmingly crucial to the success of that business, that business gets predictable. I'll give you an example. Cable television, political cable television shows, Fox, MSNBC. The thing that gets ratings on both networks consistently is outrage. So it's fairly predictable that on both networks, all top shows, are so. selling some level of outrage. It's predictable because it delivers ratings. The truth doesn't. All strong opinions don't. Outrage sells on cable television. And so it usually leads the most popular shows. Now, many of the times on both networks, it's not particularly outrageous to me,

but if a host feels or can sell or promote outrage, it works nightly, weekly, monthly, annually. Some hosts clearly better than others. So in the NFL, as the league due to safety precautions, has made the quarterback basically hit-free, has opened up the field for receivers, quarterbacks, tight ends to not get hit. your skill players feel much more comfortable going over the middle, going down field, and it's become a very much an offensive leaning league. We've talked about this. Of the eight teams left, seven have offensive coaches.

And one, Sean McDermott just has Superman at quarterback. They would not be a playoff team, certainly not a winning playoff team, if they had an average quarterback. By the way, the Giants have an average quarterback. so do we believe the Niners. Offensive coaches, they win playoff games. So this year in my NFL predictions, I did something I'd never done before. I got three divisions, one through four, correct. In the AFC East, I had the Bills, the Dolphins, the Patriots, and the Jets in order. In the NFC, I had the NFC East in perfect order, Philly, Dallas, Giants, Washington, and the NFC North

in perfect order, Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago. There's an argument to be made that I also got a fourth half the league right in the NFC South because I had Tampa winning and then three non-playoff teams. But since they all tied, there's no real order to that. But three and a half perfectly. Why? It's the most I've ever done. Why? Because the league's getting more predictable. And I think what you're going to see, the best quarterback won is all that's left in every AFC division. Alan Mahomes, Burrow, and Trevor Lawrence. I think the AFC for the next six to eight years, barring a coach being fired or retiring,

Andy Reid, I'm told may retire within the next couple of years. I think you're going to see an AFC that is incredibly predictable. Mahomes, Alan, Burrow. Trevor Lawrence rinse and repeat. Now, if Andy Reed retires, the higher the wrong coach, different ballgame. But that doesn't mean on a week-to-week game-to-game basis, it's easier to predict the winners. But as the league has become so overwhelmingly quarterback-centric, the AFC is now a lay-up. I can tell you right now, I like all four of those quarterbacks next year in the AFC. NFC is different. You've got over-exec.

achievers at quarterback. So the quality of the defense, the quality of the weapons, the quality of the coaching matters much more in the NFC. I mean, Brian Daibol is taking a really mid-level offense. They do have a good running back and left tackle. Receiving core is below average, O-Lines bottom, quarter of the league. But I think, you know, I looked at my predictions this year on divisions outside of the Rams falling apart on the offensive line. Did not predict that. And the Russell Wilson disaster. I totally whiffed on that.

Football is getting easier to predict annually. In fact, the team I predicted would be the most improved. We got that right. Minnesota Vikings. They lost all those one possession games. I said they're going to win a majority of, not lose those one possession games with an offensive coach. Again, any business where one element quarterback drives success or productivity becomes a significantly easier business to predict outcomes.

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Terms and conditions apply LinkedIn.com slash Colin. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me.

Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skis. skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental

health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot,

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Connecticut, 1-800 gambler or visit Fandul.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Indiana, stop in Louisiana, 1-800-2707-1-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. 1877, H-E-N-Y, or text H-O-P-E-NY-X-N-Y-N-Y-ROTN-N-N-Y-ROT. 1-8-8-9-9-17-N-N-N-E-ROW. Visit 1-800-Gambler. All right, I had a winning week. I went three and two thanks to the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys, Chad Millman's C-C-O-A-O-A-C-O-A-O-O-D-O-D-O-D-D-B-W-D-D-B-Bided by

fan duel. I said last week, I will not be mocked or ridiculed. I loved Dallas. I think sometimes you have to be honest about what a team is. Tampa was eight and nine. It's sort of what they are. And it was unveiled. So this week, we've got four games. And I feel there's always, whenever you go into these big games, I try to simplify everything. What are these teams at this point? And what are they not? So one of my, I don't like big favorites, you know this, chat. But Kansas City minus eight and a half is my play. Andy Redolph a buy is the greatest NFL coach ever. They met in the first matchup, and as Greg Kosell pointed out to me, there are some Jacksonville personnel disadvantages on defense here. They probably won't be able to overcome. They're still in a rebuild.

I argue they're a year ahead of schedule. Jacksonville's off their biggest franchise win in years. This is still a quarterback with less than, you know, 40 starts. This is a lot to ask for the Jags. I like the Chiefs by 10 or more, sharper square. So it's square, but not like egregiously square. It's square because there is, there is so much data for trends, so much analysis broadly in this situation for number

one seeds underperforming against the market and for the chiefs specifically underperforming against the market when they are really big favorites. So that's why. And what's really interesting and we're going to get through this with all the games today, there are very specific play the trends sides and play the matchup sides. And so with this one, the wise guys are playing the trends. Agreed, Jacksonville's past defense is not very good. But the chiefs are not nearly as explosive as they were with Tyreek Hill. They tend to play ball control when they get a lead. And ball control for the chiefs doesn't mean they're just running it 50 times. It means shorter passes. It means a little bit more conservative on the play calling, not the sort of sling it like Patrick Mahomes normally does.

So I think that you're starting to see the wise guys really like the Jaguars here. A couple other trends that you should think about is that in the past 20 years, number one seeds are 13, 25, and 1 against the spread in this round. And when they're favored by less than 10 points, they're 8, 22, and 1. So that hits the button for two number one seeds this weekend. All right. Hey, listen, Miami kept it close with Buffalo with Skyler Thompson. So that is, that was a little bit of a last two times Miami played them.

I thought Mike McDaniel out coach McDermott. Get to that in a second. So Giants plus seven and a half at Philly is the side for me. I worry about Jalen Hertz 100% health. I worry of some of its inactivity. I worry about a team that's become increasingly injured and turnover prone in the last two months of the season. The Giants have a way they have to play. But with Daniel Jones now running the football more, they're a little better third down team.

They can play keep away a little better. Now, that said, Minnesota's awful. and Daniel Jones, two best games were against the Vikings. So let's slow down. I like Philly to win, but in a division rivalry game, Philadelphia was not playing great at the end of the year. I think the buy does them no favors here. I'm going to take the seven and a half sharper square.

Colin? I normally say when I don't have a consensus, that it is completely split. What I will say this time is that there has been really smart money at big, big wagers on the Eagles and really, really smart money at big, big wagers on the Giants. And this is where covering sports betting gets the most fascinating games like these. We just talked about trends versus matchups. We talked about public.

Often we talk about being on the public side, fading the public. public, being against the public. Right now, the giants are a very, very public team. They did exactly what you just said against the Eagles. They had 10 or 11 wins in one score games. They were a covering machine. The public is down on the Eagles right now. They are not even the favorite to win the Super Bowl from the NFC. That is the Brock Purdy led Niners. So what you're doing if you like the Eagles, you're actually fading the public right now because the giants are a public dog. And where this gets really, really interesting, really interesting, you are seeing massive amounts of money and massive amounts of tickets coming in on the Giants.

And this line has been sitting at seven and a half since Monday. So we're now at Thursday. You get a massive amount of money on one side, and bookmakers usually move the line. They haven't moved the line because they're also getting significant wise guy play on the Eagles. I will tell you, as we often talk about, the wise guy calls that we get for the favorites podcast, call it sharp calls, completely split on this. But we do go ahead and decide to make taking the Eagles at seven and a half our big balls, bed of the week. because we like the matchup for the Eagles on the field better. We think they're a better team. Jalen Hertz, Jordan Davis on the field at the same time,

have not lost once this year. If we did not have the public situation, if the Eagles hadn't been fading at the end of the year when Jalen Hertz was hurt, it'd probably be 10-point favorites. It's a tough one, though, Colin. World is divided. This is splitting the world.

This and the death ceiling are splitting the world in two. Okay. This one, I have no idea. I'm going to take the Bengals up to five and a half fan dual odds. I said this today on the show, and I'll get pushed back, I'm sure on social media. If the O line was healthy for Cincinnati, I think they'd blow out Buffalo. I think they're a significantly better situational team. I think they're more balanced offensively. They're not actually as beholden to Joe Burrow as the bill's offense is now to Josh Allen. Greg, Hosell said it today. Take out Alan and Stefan Diggs. Buffalo's offense personnel is just not that talented and you see it on film.

Buffalo is mistake prone, but they played very poorly against Miami. Sean Payton told me the best weeks to be a coach when you win and play like shit, because you can ride those players all week. I think Buffalo is going to play a lot better. Bengals are missing three offensive linemen. The five and a half is a lot. to give Burrow, who's an excellent road quarterback, so I probably play Cincinnati with no conviction at all. I think Buffalo rebounds and plays well. I'll take the Bengals and the point sharper square.

So flip around everything you just said and don't be a square and take the bills. Because if, to say that if the Bengals were not missing three offensive linemen would be like saying if I had scored a hundred points in a game in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I'd be an NBA legend. That's how sort of fantastical that kind of if-then statement is. They don't have the three linemen. And we saw what happened to the Bengals when they were missing against the Ravens team that they, not even downfield, Joe Burrell can't even drop back. Like the second he drops back, someone is in his lap. And the Ravens were doing that with a. lot of heavy, heavy blitzing and pass rushing. The bills have a very deep defensive line.

They're a top 10 pressure rate defensive line without blitzing. And you make the points about playing badly, right? So let's look at two teams that did not play well in the opening round of the playoffs that were playing against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo Bills played Skyler Thompson. They played terrible. They had bad, really bad breaks. They still kind of won that game. handily, right? The score was closer than it appeared in the fourth quarter. The Bengals played a backup quarterback. They gained 234 yards on offense, and they won the game on a lucky 98-yard fumble recovery by a defensive lineman, not because their offense did anything special and Joe Burrow did anything special. So this game opened at six and a half. It got bet down to three

and a half. It hit three and a half, and the wise guy started pummeling it. Three and a half, four, four and a half five five and a half i would tell anybody bet the bills at five and a half if you guess the six you walk away maybe you take a piece of the bangles but when you get from say four and a half to five and a half you're kind of in these dead numbers right the games really don't land it's either going to land on six or it might land on four so uh i say you take the uh you take the five and a half with the bills i hate all my picks i hope i convinced you of that i really do you're on offense on this one. So you can't, the offensive line thing, you cannot, you cannot discount that. It's massive. Well, and also a huge component of Burroughs greatness is the sneaky deep ball. He's deadly accurate, 15 yards in.

Yet he's got a Tony Romall. He loves to let it rip, sometimes in a double coverage. And he's really successful. You just took that out. They become much easier to defend. They're a nibble team. They Because when you're missing three offensive linemen, the vertical passes out. So they become a very safe offense. I don't think you can go to Buffalo. Okay. So from time to time, I admit this. I actually admit it a lot.

My wife's an artist. And so she sees things I don't. And sometimes I'll see a number and go, well, somebody knows something I don't. I guess the numbers before they come out. And if there's a big variance, and it's about once a week or once every other week, I'm like, wow, that's a big variance. Vegas knows something. I don't know. So the Cowboys have a 48-hour minimum preparation deficit.

They didn't get home until 2, 3 in the morning on Tuesday. The Niners game was over Saturday afternoon. Also, short week facing. now the most physical team in the league. It's not like it's a finesse team. Like I talked to Gerald McCoy about this and he said, forget the prep time. Is that body going to be ready for San Francisco for three hours? They are just, it is sumo wrestling.

It is just contact and bounding. And my guess on the number was five and a half and it came in at three and a half. I thought at five and a half it was safe. At home, two-day prep advantage, smartest offensive coach in a game in which Seattle's not physical. They tossed them around. So it tells me the game's going to be closer. Vegas is smarter than I am.

So I take the Cowboys and the points and I hate it, sharper square. You are, this is the sharpest thing you've ever said. As a sports analyst talking about betting, you've said many, many other sharp things in the context of your life. But in this particular context, this is the sharpest thing you've ever said. It's fishy, man. The game actually opened at four and a half,

got bet down to four, got bet down to three and a half. Somebody took a little bit of money on the Niners at three and a half. But this is a pro's Joe's game. Like, majority of the tickets on the Niners, majority on the money on the Cowboys right now. And there's a really interesting narrative taking place

in the betting world. And this is why I love covering the betting world, because, and why I always have, there is a conversation, a shadow conversation happening amongst millions and millions of betters that influences billions of dollars in markets, right? But it's an entirely different narrative than what is happening in sort of the general sports debate space when people are analyzing these games. And the narrative right now is that if you look back, who have the Niners played? And when they have played those teams, has their defense been not as good as we thought?

And so Brock Purdy's been winning all of these games against quarterbacks who a lot of quarterbacks might be able to beat if they have Kyle Shanahan as their play caller and their scheme designer. And meanwhile, the defense, terrible first half against Gino Smith, terrible second half against the Raiders. You're starting to see a lot of cracks. That is a narrative that is taking place in the betting community right now with the Niners defense. And so I have been shocked to hear about the cowboy love this week because, I mean, especially me, I was so anti-Cowboys last week, sadly. But this week, the wise guys

around the Cowboys, it was a stunner for me. I hate all my picks. I've never said that. I hate everything every week. At this time of year, Colin, there's nothing to love. You're grinding it out. You're hanging on by your fingernails.

Just hoping, dear God, can we get to the Super Bowl? I mean, I thought the Chiefs, I thought the Chiefs was so sharp. I was going to call my pick cheddar. It was so good. And now I wouldn't bet a nickel on that thing. So what's interesting about that is, I would say, of the sharp plays, that's the one that I think people are most skeptical about.

What is starting to get some play is the under in that game. Andy Reed at Arrowhead in his career, the unders are about 58%. percent when he is a seven point favorite or more that climbs to 70 percent. So the under is at 53 could go down in 52 and a half. So there's a lot of conversation about that. But that kind of game script, if it's an under, plays to the strength of Jacksonville. That's right. Keeping it close. I mean, it's hard to give up eight and a half at the score if they total up at 52. That's a lot of points. Yeah. It's a lot of points. A lot of points.

Betting is hard. No, I hit, I, that everybody can do it. Listen to this, Millman, 55% in the year. So my blazing five is done.

So now I only have four games. Yep. So 55% on the year, 55 and a half percent. I always, I've always said, 56 is my goal, 56, 56, 56 and a half

because you could be a pro better at 56. I am not, but I feel good. Last year was my worst year. It was the COVID year. I couldn't figure I had no rhythm all year. So I ended up, last two weeks,

three and two, 555 and a half. I like that. I like it. If you could grind out three and two every single week, yeah, you're professional better. That's the goal, right? When we did the, you know, Colin, when Simon Hunter and I would go through our five best picks every week on the favorites podcast, our goal every week, three and two, three and two, three and two, three and two, because look at that. You go three and two over 18 weeks. You end the year nearly 20 games over 500. If you're like, Who's going to walk away saying I just went 20 games over 500 betting NFL. And if you're betting the same number of dollars and dollars equates to units,

whatever unit size for you, a unit size might be a million dollars a game. For me, it's like, you know, maybe $10 a game. But a unit size, I'm up 20 units at the end of the year. That's fantastic. So, yeah. I always look at a hundred bucks a game. Because if I win it, I take the little girl out for a snappy tequila shot. or two and some Mexican food.

Yeah. Leave a tip. That's how I look at it. Free dinner with my beautiful redhead, my smart, beautiful, talented redheaded wife. That's the way to go. That's totally the way to go. I want to talk about the Ravens for one second

because you were on them, I was on them. That was a crazy game last week because it was six and a half, then seven, seven and a half, eight and a half. It was a sweat, man. They should have won that game. Oh, it's probably, I think fans sometimes understand this, but there are, there was a 14 point play in that game. Now think about that. One play, 14 point swing on the sneak.

And so when I, we want, now usually guys complain about that when they lose. So I won that bet and lost a 14 point swing. Yeah. So you know it's the right side when you lose the two touchdown swing. And I felt to the very end, I'm like, I knew I was on the right side. Yes. It was funny. When the Chargers led big at half, my takeaway was, this is the Chargers.

They're going to get with a defensive coach squirrelly in the second half. And I was sitting with a buddy and I said, I don't know who's going to win. I think the Chargers will. I said, you watch this thing with three minutes to go. He was a Charger fan. I said, you better watch this. I said, this thing's going to get because you know, they want to get. on that flight and go home. You do not want to be in a losing flight. They're going to take no big

chances. And by the way, Jacksonville is pretty good coming from behind. They really are. If they throw nine straight times with Trevor and Doug Peterson, they're not bad at that. That's kind of a comfort level to them. Look, we talked about this in the podcast. We liked the Jags. And we liked the Jags because of the coaching mismatch. And that's what it came down to. We said specifically, I will not bet on Brandon Staley as a favorite on the road against Doug Peterson. People will try to categorize them because they both are risk-taking coaches. Doug Peterson is rick-taking in a very strategic way. Brandon Staley is okay with his offensive coordinator, throw in the ball, up 27-0 in the second half.

That's not risk-taking. That's just bad decision-making completely. And I will say one more thing. One more thing to back up the Cincinnati play. You know, we will do these luck rankings every week, right? Where we're aggregating all this different data and it basically says, this is what should have happened in the game and it predicts regression the following week. It tells you who's overvalued, who's undervalued in a game.

Last week, the luckiest team in the league, Cincinnati Bengals, if you played that game with the plays that and they happened as they were expected to happen, meaning there's not a fumble recovery for 98 yards. Baltimore is expected to win that game, 2214. I don't tell you. We're on the bills. It's the last word. I think, yeah, I think bills and cowboys I can live with.

Giants, I feel like crap, Chiefs is ridiculous now. Like, I'm going to bet the Eagles, and it makes me sick to my stomach. I bet the Cowboys, I'm sick to my stomach. I bet the Jaguars. I'm sick to my stomach. The only one I feel good about it is the bills. So you know what that means? Bills are the only one's going to lose. I went drinking with Sean Payton this week. I had dinner too. I haven't done this in 30 years. I had two tequilas, a glass of wine and a craft beer. Took me 48 hours to recover. No joke, dude. I did the same thing. I was in New York City. I went out for dinner on Tuesday night. I met someone for

for a drink beforehand, one glass of wine, too big at an old school classic Italian joint in the city, two big boulevardiers. And I went to bed. I was up at three until six. I had a massive headache until about five the next day. I had to go to bed by nine o'clock when I got back to Connecticut. It was not pretty. Was it rouse? Is that where you went? No, we went to Dumberto's, which is kind of like, it's on 17th and sixth, like, you know, in, I don't even sure what's like kind of west of Flatiron. And it was delicious. It's like one of those old school places, you're there for four hours, the food just keeps coming. Oh, God.

For a night, New York is so much fun. There are nights in New York. like this night you walk out of the restaurant you've had a great night you feel invincible I know I was in New York one night

and I had gone out to Del Frisco's that's on the west side of town West 50 something yeah it's in the Fox News building right? It's like 50th, 51st something like that yeah

and I was staying at the London Hotel which is down the street from it. And the lead singer for Metallica was there that night. Oh, God. Yeah. So I go to Delphrasco's. I come out of there.

And I can remember I was with a friend and I said, I understand why New Yorkers have no idea where Utah is on a map. Yep. When you have a great night in New York and I'm looking down an alley and it's just New York. and it's just New York. It's pre-COVID. There's lights. It's gorgeous. I'm like, shh, this is.

There's nothing better. It will make you feel like a million bucks. It in November. Bono. Bono was doing this 10 city worldwide tour to promote this biography that he wrote, autobiography. And it was a mix of,

the show was a mix of songs and stories from the book. And like a lot of the stuff in the book explained the songs that he wrote, right? And so he was doing 10 cities, opening night, beacon theater, upper west side, Manhattan. I got tickets. Third row. Like, I'm in Bono's grill, man. Behind me, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Bono's wife, Tom Hanks, The Edge. I'm like, this is the greatest New York experience you can have.

You can't have that anywhere else with this crowd coming in. And then we walk out. We're done. I go to the Dublin House. You celebrate seeing Bono at the Dublin House, which is like this old school railroad car bar on the Upper West Side that I used to go to when I first moved to Manhattan. Nothing has changed in that bar.

The same Jack Daniels. on the shelf from 30 years ago. And then you leave and you have a slice of pizza and it feels like I can live forever. It's so true. I've had it's, it's, I was lucky when I was at ESPN, I'd go there about 10 times a year, never pay for anything. No, of course not. I probably paid for three drinks in my life in New York.

It was always on the company. And New York's, the only thing better than New York is free New York. New York got an expense account. Oh my God. So I did a couple, I did a Joe Namath of Van, a couple, a couple, Eli, Mary. events. I just had to do live remotes. Good people. Michael Kay, I'd go see him. If I was there, I'd stop by the radio station. Usually I did. I had a handful of people, good people. I had to go to the New York radio station. So Tim McCarthy was a sales guy, Michael Kay. So he'd

see good people, Justin Craig. We can edit that out, by the way. They don't need props, people. But New York, New York, big steak, wine, friends on a fall, early fall. Evening or late summer. It's the best. You walk out, it's like 57 degrees and it's like a little dusky and it's just, it's perfect. The flip side, the flip side, when the apocalypse comes, I don't want to be there. And that's what scares me. Yeah.

It's a city of highs and lows. Yeah. I mean, on a good night, you could get caught in the middle of a mob hit. And you'd be like, you know, great night. Brief incident, I'm good. On the best nights, nothing gets in your way there. You go to the bar. It's great-looking people.

It's on the company. You have a big piece of steak. It's just so much energy and fun and arrogance and laughter. And it's all the things that are, you know. All right, I got to get out of here. All right, brother. I'll see you later. The volume.

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