The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Saquon Is The Eagles “Savior”, Has Jayden Daniels Hit The Rookie Wall? Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 11

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

Colin reacts to the Eagles beating the Commanders on Thursday Night Football! He declares Saquon Barkley the Eagles “savior” and explains why the devaluing of the running back position was never going to last (4:00). Then, he argues that Jayden Daniels may have hit the “rookie wall” after a blistering start to the season (11:30). Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 11 of the NFL slate. 25:00 - Steelers vs Ravens 27:15 - Packers vs Bears 30:00 - Colts vs Jets 32:15 - Rams vs Pats 35:00 - Bills vs Chiefs 44:15 - Chargers vs Bengals 47:15 - Falcons vs Broncos 50:45 - Saints vs Browns  52:45 - Seahawks vs 49ers (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

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Wilman is going to stop on by in about 10 minutes. That was a tough watch. Thursday night football, 26, 18. Philadelphia played like crap in the first half and came back to win. Let's be honest, behind Sequin Barclay. This, you know, Philadelphia is such a talented team, but I think what tonight honestly look like, you're getting into week 10, week 11, it's a short week. Philadelphia looked tired.

Philadelphia looked beat up. They look tired. you know, division rivalry games are usually pretty physical. I think it's disturbing how Philadelphia, much better roster than Washington, couldn't get anything going in the first half. You know, it wasn't until the last final drives when, you know, they kind of cut loose. It's just you have to be a better football team than that. Eagles are 6 and 0 when Saquan Barkley rushes for 100 plus yards,

so he's completely changed the offense. Jalen Hertz, there were times tonight in the first half when J. Hurts missed A.J. Brown badly on like a 12, 15-yard out. And, you know, he's just the savior of the offense. I find it remarkable. You know, nobody in the NFL loves to trade to their rivals. It's sort of a no-no. You know, to me, as long as you're not trading like your best player.

It is unbelievable. The New York Giants allowed. And it was the most predictable thing in the world. Saquan Barkley, their best player, by a lot to go to the Philadelphia Eagles. Jesus. I mean, that's just not good GMing. And I don't know if the Giants are going to clean house, but that's the kind of thing that gets you fired. And Barclay's a remarkable player. You know, it really cracks me up. The media overreacts to everything. A lot of it is the media is much younger than it used to be. Is that the media, you know, companies now don't have the money, especially traditional media.

you know, they're going to get young and cheap in the media. So a lot of times the media is 31 years old, 28 years old. Their reaction to stuff is like it's never happened before, but that's their life. You know, I've been doing this so long now. And believe me, that's not a humble brag. You know, it's sometimes I look at the media and I think, guys, this is, it's everything's cyclical. I mean, virtually politics is cyclical. Everything is cyclical. tech the industry is not very old but it feels cyclical you get ups and downs everybody overreacts to everything and earlier this year you know or was it was it last year the off season there was this big complaint that running backs are not getting paid and it's like take a deep breath safeties

have never been paid you know tight ends have always been underpaid interior offensive linemen don't get paid unless you're the la rams they pay theirs um running backs are always going to be valuable because a running back is essential for a young quarterback, for instance. All quarterbacks are better. I mean, J. Lon Hertz is not a kid anymore, but all quarterbacks are better than good running back. Well, quarterback's the most essential piece in the league. Secondly, running backs, weather gets harsh, weather gets colder, it gets windier, November, December, January, running games become more essential. Not to mention, you know, our running back is such a great piece, not just, not just to set the tempo of a team,

but when you lead and good teams lead. And so a lot of times a running back, it eats up the clock. So good teams are always going to want a good running back. I mean, Philadelphia is a good team, excellent running back. Isaiah Pacheco when he comes back will be so valuable to the Kansas City Chiefs. James Cook for the Buffalo Bills has changed everything. Derek Henry for the Ravens. I mean, look at Cincinnati, one of the best quarterbacks in the league, let Joe Mixen go. Bingles would die for a 12-play drive, nine runs with Joe Mixen to keep their awful defense off the field. The Detroit Lions have two excellent running backs. So this idea that running backs were going to, you know, disappear into the ether, the reports,

I said this on FS1, I said up multiple times, take a deep breath. There was always going to be a market for Austin Echler, you know, Washington. like, hey, we need you. You don't have to get 30 carries, but we need you. So there's excellent young running backs in the league, and Sequin Barclay is so valuable. This is a team that's good. They often play with the league. And he was like a closer tonight. Like, he was just so dependable late in the football game. I will say, if these are two of the best teams in the NFC, then the AFC is still superior to the NFC. But I also think Jalen Hertz allows Seekwon Barclay, excuse me, allows Jalen Hertz to throw less. In his six-game winning streak, he's only

had two turnovers. So Jalen Hertz can throw 22 times. He doesn't have to throw 34 times. So, and it frustrates me sometimes. And I see this in the political media, you know, to the Trump election. It's, listen, the election was decided by a million, six votes or something like that in a country of 350 million people. And you can see from the appointees, you know, Trump, Trump is, always going to be a polarizing personality and a polarizing president. You know, he'll create great passion from the blue team. You go to the midterm elections, the Senate, the House, things change. It's just, you know, nothing, nothing lasts forever.

So running backs are very, very valuable. I also think, you know, it's like in the NBA. Remember, it was the small ball league and everybody got small. And then here comes Yokic and here comes Janus. And, you know, the Boston South. things are like, let's get a big, let's get poor Zingas. And now, you know, with the emergence of some of these young stars like a Wembe, you just have to have size. You just, in the NBA, you're just not going to win a championship.

I mean, Julius Randall, see ya, we'll take Carl Anthony Towns. We need more size if we want to match up with Janus and Bede and Porzengis in the East. I mean, it's amazing how many true big men, Anthony Davis is the best player on the Lakers, Janice on Milwaukee, Yokic, Gwembe, there's all sorts of good players. Chet Holmgren,

is such a good player for O.K.C., he's not as good as SGA, but a great player. So, I mean, one team, Minnesota, I mean, has been kind of reboot as a franchise

before Carl Anthony Town got traded because they went and got Rudy Gober and Carl Anthony Towns. They went and got two centers. Everything, everything over time,

either reemerges, emerges, take a deep breath, it's all going to be okay. I also think what's happening last weekend. It was a great weekend for underdogs. And I thought tonight, Washington, you couldn't figure the first half out. I mean, you looked at the stats. Washington never had the football.

They had the football 11 minutes and they led. And it was one of these football games you're like, what's happening here? Philadelphia is so much better. Jacksonville, Minnesota last weekend. Minnesota was so much better. San Francisco and Tampa last week. I mean, go look at the box score in that game. So what you're finding is a lot of these superior football teams, they're injured, they're beat up, they're playing some backups, they're tired.

You know, a lot of the better football teams in the NFL, they have older players, players just out of their prime. Week 10, week 11, week 12. Listen, I like Jaden Daniels. And let's talk about this. But he's hit a bit of a rookie wall. And last year, C.J. Stroud had a three-game stretch, and we all like him, where he can completed 57% of his throws. So Jaden Daniels comes in, has a little Lamar Jackson feel. Nobody has any film. Nobody has any NFL film. I mean, you're just, you're kind of, okay,

you go back and look at the LSU film. I mean, you don't know really what you get. And then Cliff Kingsbury with Jaden Daniels brand new. So you get four, five weeks. And you're like, oh, then, you know, then they lose to a Baltimore. And I play Pittsburgh a couple of weeks. And they lose to a Pittsburgh. And now they lose to a Philadelphia. So some teams, Washington I had as a wildcard team, coming to. into the season. Some teams, it takes a while to figure them out. And I think more than any team in the NFL, that's Washington. They come in with a fastball. Nobody's seen it. Kingsbury's got a new offense and a new quarterback. And everybody's kind of just, you just, you need more film. And then all of

sudden, you kind of figure out what they are, what they're not. You see their offensive line, you know, into the season, going into the season, we all said about the commanders, don't know if I like the offensive line. You know, they kind of fool people early, some smoke and mirrors. I mean, just picking up seven yards a chunk, but they can't sustain it because they really don't have good enough. I like their running backs, but I mean, Terry McLaurin in the first half, didn't even see a target. You know, so people take Terry McLaren out, and it's a pretty weak, wide receding crew, and it's a pretty average offensive line. And now everybody's got all the tape. And so I think he's going to be, I think, I think Jane Daniels has been a home run, you know, rookie of the year,

all that stuff. But this is the reality. C.J. Stroud, you know, hit a wall and had some games where, you know, the game speeds up. The other thing is what happens is, like, a young quarterback maybe has a favorite receiver, you know, maybe relies, you know, more on a running back, and then people start getting dinged up in week nine and ten and eleven. And now, you know, Jaden Daniels doesn't have all the components he needs. And so, you know, then Cliff Kingsbury has certain things he's not going to runs, certain plays, certain sets. So, you know, on insert day, you know, and this is a short week anyway, you know, you're limited on what you have. And I think that's what you're seeing.

I think you're seeing a young quarterback. And it just steps. Everything for these young quarterbacks is steps. No, Bo Neck started slowly, but he has an offensive head coach and one of the great ones in Sean Payton. He keeps getting better and better. Whereas the element of surprise, what the heck is Jane Daniels? And you're guessing. And he's so electric and so athletic. He was just picking up yards with his feet. Nothing quite like him.

Looks a little like Lamar in the NFC. And now we're seeing people have a track. Doesn't mean, it's like a little bit like Lamar Jackson. I mean, Lamar's first full year starting MVP, but he would have trouble in some division games as teams in his division like Pittsburgh or Cincinnati had seen Lamar Jackson multiple times. Remember Lamar's first year. He comes in late, week 11. He beats the Chargers. Then he has to face him again in the playoffs. And he loses the Chargers. I remember talking to Tom Telesco, the GM of the Chargers at the time. And he said, you know, first time you face him, I mean, you just don't, you can watch all the film you want. You have no idea how fast he is, how twitchy he is, how quick he sees and thinks and reacts. And then the second time you face him, okay, we're going to take away this. That's his fastball. We're taking away that. force him to go to his second and his third receiver. And then you, he's still tough to beat.

But you can ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has struggled in his career. I don't think he's had a great record against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin, they always have a good defense. They see him multiple times a year. They know all the tricks. And so I think Jaden Daniels will be a very effective quarterback for teams that don't face him a lot. But for a Philadelphia, that's well run, good pieces that sees him twice a year.

you know, he may have, through the years, he may have trouble with the Eagles, but still love him. That's a pretty good quarterback class. A few years ago, we had the class with Jalen Hertz and Tua and Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert. This quarterback class, J.J. McCarthy looked really, really good in the preseason. Preseason, but he looked really good. And Bo Nicks looks good. And Jaden Daniels looks good. And I do believe Caleb Williams will eventually get it right or closer to what he's going to be. he had a good three-game stretch earlier this season. Caleb Williams was 74% completion percentage in three games. But again, now people are getting tape. Now they see what Caleb can't do.

Then all of a sudden you have a wide receiver that stinged up. Just steps. Just a process. Jaden's going to be great. I let Philadelphia tonight just, they just looked. They were a little tired, a little beat up. But they came back to be an inferior roster, 26 to 18. Nick Sariani, I still cannot get over.

I don't believe they've scored on the opening drive this year. Offensive coach, Sequin Barclay, Jalen Hertz, A.J. Brown, Devante Smith, good O line. That's just odd to me. Just Philadelphia is such a unique franchise. And maybe I'm loopy because this game put me to sleep. But they're the only franchise that makes constant coaching changes. You're never quite in love of the coach. yet I think it's a top five organization in the NFL.

Everybody else, like Kansas City feels so stable. Baltimore feels so stable. Philadelphia is a little rocky and turbulent. I mean, how many coordinators have they had? I mean, they're on their third offensive coordinator in three years. They're constantly rotating through coordinators, coaches, a few years back, quarterbacks, but yet I don't see them like the New York Jets, of the New York Giants as reactionary.

I tend to think they're proactive. Smart owner, smart GM. I didn't love them firing Chip Kelly. But at the time I felt like Chip Kelly's got a winning record. But you know what? We found out in San Francisco, Chip's more of a college guy than a pro guy. So they knew something in the building that we didn't,

even though they went 10 and 6, 10 and 6 first two years with pretty average quarterback play. They knew something. They saw something. Carson Wentz, they signed him to a big deal. And then they kind of moved off him. And you're thinking, what do you do? doing here. You just signed them to a big deal. They kind of knew something. You know, they

know things in the building. They keep it to themselves, and they react proactively, very strongly. And so, Philadelphia, once again, I mean, this offense with Jalen Hertz has been one of two things. Turnover prone and awful, or when Nick Seriani moves back and lets his OC run things, excellent. There's nothing in between. It's either been, you know, like right now, it's powerful. It's a powerful offense with a great old line at Saquan Barkley. Six and O are the Eagles when Sequin rushes for 100 or more, completely change the offense of Philadelphia. Okay, this weekend, there's some interesting things.

Tonight, Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, Saturday, John Jones, UFC fight. Good weekend. Good. Anytime you can get a fight on a Friday and a Saturday, into a big football weekend. Excellent. Chad Millman's next. All right, there's never been. been a night quite like this. On Friday, November 15th, Netflix, and most valuable promotions

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You can also follow the road to the fight by watching Countdown. Paul versus Tyson, a three-part documentary series beginning November 12th, only on Netflix. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you'll say. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.

It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. What would you eat if you had to start over?

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Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. He's a host at the Action Network. All of our odds are always provided by drafting sportsbook. All right, Chad Milman. There are certain games I just want to watch and not bet, but I would take the Steelers plus points hosting the Ravens. The number is three and a half. It's one of the bets of the weekend. At three, I still think I would take it. I think George Pickens and Mike Williams attack the Ravens weakness. Baltimore is one of those teams, and this is rare with a great team. They can outplay you and then get beat by the Raiders, can get beat by inferior teams. They're so bad on the back end. And I think Pittsburgh's a real story here. I think it's the Seahawks light. Russell's not what he once was, but in this rivalry, even a field goal, I'm taking the point, sharper square. Well, it's totally sharp, and you've nailed it from a couple different directions.

won the matchup. The Wise Guy seed exactly the way you do. We've been watching it all year with the Ravens where they're letting teams in the back door, right? We saw it with the commanders. They were down a significant amount. They came back, they came back, and they were able to cover that game.

We saw it with the Bengals who were up so much because they were able to attack the back end of the Ravens defense. And don't forget, no Kyle Humphrey in this game. Kyle Humphrey is one of their, if not their best, defender, and now that secondary is going to be even worse. The overarching theme here, and this is the reason why professionals are on it, don't forget, this game opened at three and a half, it is settled at three. The wise guys are still on it. But look, in the regular season, in this game, in this matchup,

the past 20 years when the line is three or more, the underdog, 22, four, and three. Underdog, 15, 2, and 1 since 2015. In the regular season when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, the underdog in this matchup, 23, 6, and 3. And then you go into Mike Tomlin, the most profitable coach as an underdog in the past 20 years in the NFL. And by the way, John Harbaugh, when he's a favorite, is not nearly as good as when he's a dog in this matchup. So there is a matchup reason, and there is also historical reasons to consider the Steelers at plus three, you're sharp. You know I like the number four and five. So Greg Cosell said something on my show today that had influence over me.

This was going to be a stayaway game, but Packers, offensive coach off a buy at Chicago. And what Greg Cosell said, it's not a Shane Waldron issue. Much like Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, Caleb Williams is not seeing coverage. He's not seeing it. he is not able to see something, spot it, get the ball out quickly. Green Bay, I think, has its most aggressive defense in years. I love the Boston College coach. I think he's been a really nice fit for them.

Under the radar, low-key, really knows his side of the ball. It's five, I would take Green Bay. I know it's a division rivalry game, but good organization, coach, Jordan loves healthier, sharper square. So the wise guys have been on the Bears in this game. It's moved from six to five and a half to now five in some places. I agree with you for what it's worth. For me, this is a pass or it's the Packers. I think there's so much dysfunction with the Bears.

And the reason why the wise guys are taking them right now is because they believe this is bottomed out, right? It's gotten as bad as it can get in the locker room. It can't get any worse. youth believe that the players were responsible for getting Shane Waldron fired, DJ Moore said that didn't happen, whether you believe that the system can now get a little bit less complex and easier for Caleb Williams, whether you believe that they're getting two defensive linemen back, which they are, and will make him feel more comfortable in the pocket, this team has been full of chaos. And so the wise guys are betting literally that it cannot

get any worse in a division game against their rival at home. The flip side is entirely about what the Packers can do. They have been very opportunistic. As a defense this year, a lot of interceptions. They cannot rush the passer, but what they can do offensively, and this is where Matt LaFleur has been a genius, figure out how to best take advantage of what the bears are bad at on defense. The bears are not a very good rushing defense.

We've seen what Matt LaFleur does with someone like Josh Jacobs, when he knows he doesn't have Jordan Love. he just figures out creative ways to get the running game in motion. He will likely do that against the Bears. Also, Matt LaFleur, seven and three when favored by four points or more, over the past two decades, road favorites off of a buy covered a 60% clip. Road favorites of five and a half or more covered a 70% clip. So there's lots of reasons to like the Packers here.

The wise guys think the right side is the Bears. So Journey had a song years ago, and one of the lyrics is, I can't stop loving you. And I feel that's like odds makers on the Jets. This is a bad team. How in God's name were they favored in Arizona?

It was never competitive. Colts getting over a field goal. So Anthony Richardson, I'm tired. I'm going to go to the sidelines. Not a smart move. It's not punishable by a month on the bench. He learned his lesson.

When he's healthy, he's kind of a fascinating player that's hard to defend because you have nobody in practice that can duplicate. He's a defensive end that plays quarterback. He's a huge tackle-breaking tornado of activity. That's not a great quarterback, but I'm taking the points here all day, Sharper Square. It's a 50-50 game right now. And I agree with you.

You think about Journey. I think that same way when I think about offensive lines who are really, really physical. and the Colts offensive line when it comes to run blocking is super physical, best in the NFL. And we saw this last week. I loved the Colts last week against the bills at home. And if not for Joe Flacco and three turnovers, and if not for getting sacked when it's fourth and inches, I know if not for, if not for, then all of a sudden I'm playing in the NFL. But the point is, they ran the ball on the bills. They had more than 120 yards rushing.

and Jonathan Taylor went for more than 100, an average five and a half yards per carry. So they were able to do exactly what they wanted to do against the Bills. The Jets' defense, from a rushing perspective, is worse than the Bills' rush defense, and the team overall is much worse than the Bills are. And now you're getting Anthony Richardson back,

to your point, this is a better opportunity for Shane Steichen to let everybody run with the ball and dominate the Jets, who if you watched last week, against the Cardinals, they were afraid to tackle anybody. This is not a physical defense, and they've gotten so much worse since Robert Sallow was fired. So the line moved down from four to three and a half, actually from four and a half to four

and a half, indicating that the wise guys were on the Colts. It's come back a little bit on the Jets, and so now it's settled at four. The majority of wise guys are with you, and they will be on the Colts. Well, a Rams minus four and a half, that key number of game at New Orleans. England. So very rarely is, have I ever seen a Sean McVeigh team out-coached. It felt like they were out-schemed early. It was like, I thought it was an embarrassing game for Sean McVeigh. And it was hard to digest because the Dolphins, a poor pass-rushing team without blitzing, just rushing four were getting relentless pressure. And my take is good coaches and good

quarterbacks have stinkers. The Rams are getting healthy. That was not the Rams. They were playing very good. It's a short week. I think New England now we're all binding to Drake May. This Rams defense is really good. Now, Drake May is not Tua. He's not.

They don't have those weapons. They're not going to... Listen, the Rams brought some people, and they got burned on third down because Tua's a really good NFL quarterback. I'd swallow the four and a half here, take the Ram Sharper Square. So it's been square,

and I got to tell you, we've talked about executive decisions before, I don't know why the wise guys are on the Patriots here. It doesn't make any sense to me at all. This is a buy low on the better team, sell high on the worst team situation. Why would you be betting the Patriots who are so high on life after beating up on the bears on the road, a franchise tying record, nine sacks against Caleb Williams? And look, I watched that game, obviously the Rams and the Dolphins too.

I looked at it a little differently. The Rams had five field goals. The Rams red zone this season has been atrocious. And to me, that was sort of the bottoming out, right? Every time they got close, it was a sack, it was a botched snap, it was a fumble, it was a mistake. And then there were a couple times defensively, you know, they had that third and 25 that they gave up and they gave up a penalty on that one too. They had another field goal. They made the field goal, five-yard illegal motion.

penalty, they get moved back, and then all of a sudden they missed the field goal. So to me, it was just, it was a game full of bad breaks, bad mistakes. It's a better team. You're getting the much better team in a bounce back spot with a relatively low number. So I like that, by the way. Teams who have been favorites at home and lost, and then our favorites the following week on the road, about 60% the past 20 years against the spread. And by the way, Sean McVey, short rest, 14 and 6 against the spread, 10 and 1 in his last 11 games

with Matthew Stafford, 6 and 1 on short rest. Like, I don't understand the move here. It doesn't make any sense to me. So, yeah, let's go with the ramps. Kansas City plus two and a half at Buffalo. I think Buffalo is the most equipped they've ever been to beat Kansas City, but now Coleman's not playing. And Amari Cooper's band up. And Kincaid might not play.

you're not beating them at half strength because they're going to put you an uncomfortable third in longs and it's a and they're getting by the way, they're getting Pacheco back so that can be a difference maker for their run game which has been pretty pedestrian Kareem Hunt's not a bad receiver out of the back field but he doesn't have any jet fuel anymore

this feels like an obvious one, Chiefs plus the points even though it's not three sharper square. Yeah, so what's interesting about this is on Sunday night this line opened at Chiefs Plus 1, and it started skyrocketing higher. And Sunday nights, Monday mornings, that's when the wise guys are betting. They're taking advantage of some early lines. So if there are a line moves in that first 24-hour window, that's professional money. And this line moved from Kansas City plus 1, Kansas City plus 1 and 1 half, Kansas City plus 2, Kansas City plus 2 and 1⁄2.

and it made no sense. This is a little bit like the Steelers where you know what the precedent is. You know Mike Tomlin does this X percent amount of time that is what we call in the betting business, a plus EV plus expected value return on your investment, right? So you just bet it. Like you might not love it.

You might get burned on it four times out of 10, but six times out of 10 you're getting to win. the percentages with Patrick Mahomes as an underdog or a favorite of less than three are so much higher than anything else you could possibly imagine. And sure, maybe he's getting by with a little bit of voodoo this year. Maybe he's been incredibly lucky. Maybe there are games they should have lost to the 49ers. Maybe they should have lost to the Broncos. Like there have been spots, but look, 12-1-1 against the spread is Mahomes as an underdog. Okay? His only against the spread loss was against the bills two years ago, two and a half point underdogs, they lost by four. 25 and 10 straight up, 26, 8 and 1 in his career against the spread as a favorite of three or fewer points or as an underdog. Like, I'm with you, you just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes in the spot.

If people didn't learn their lesson in the Super Bowl where he was a two and a half point an underdog. If Patrick Mahomes is close, ask yourself this, do you want to be betting against him at the end of the game? Are you going to feel comfortable with that? No, nobody is. And to your point, Kiann Coleman out, Amari Cooper out. King Cade, if he does play, is playing with the cast. They're a little banged up on the right side of their offensive line. Like, there are reasons to be afraid to bet on the bills beyond Patrick Mahomes. So, yes, this line has come down, by the way, to answer the original question. So it's starting to become sharp to bet on the chiefs.

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It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the, the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network. on TikTok. What would you eat if you had to start over? Real simple, poor man's, poor woman's food. Black beans, chicken, rice, plantains. Yeah.

That's always, that's poor people's food, man. But being Nigerian, that's, come on, a go-to. On the podcast eating while broke, I sit down with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and creators as they revisit the meals they once relied on in the moments that shaped their journey, named Best Food Podcast at the 2006 IHeart Podcast Awards.

This show is all about real conversations on money, growth, and what it really takes to make it. It was times where me and Lex were, like, definitely get into it. Because we're not making any money. Like, I need to start making money. Like, why are we doing this? But I don't know.

I think we just always knew that we had something really good. And eventually people were going to catch on. And so we just thugged it out. The full season is available to binge. Right now. Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Georgia accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man.

They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise, the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about.

As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment. To hear this and more, Listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior,

and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more.

Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown. from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right. The final one of my picks. So the chargers are only minus one and a half. And I looked at that number and thought, why? That's a funky number.

No, it's not. The offense, I'm going to take the bingles plus the points here. Here's why. So they played on Thursday. Now they get it, not only do they get extra rest. They don't play until Monday. So it's a strange. it's really a lot of extra rest.

As I've told you, if you have a great quarterback and an offensive coach, I think that time matters. The Jets have an old quarterback and an interim coach. That extra rest against Arizona didn't matter. But I think Zach Taylor and Joe Burrow,

and they're already humming. And the chargers, everybody loves the chargers. They don't have a ton of downfield weapons. They have very few plus 20-yard plays. So there's a way they have to play to win, long drives. long drives are hard, penalties, fumbles.

It's hard to create 9, 10, and 11 play drives. Bengals score quickly. They get freebies. I'm going to take the points to Bengals, the rest, sharper square. Yeah, it's sharp. This number's moved. It opened at 2.5 last Sunday. It's moved down to about, got down to 1, actually,

and then bounced up a little bit with some charger money at 1.5. But it's definitely the sharp side. I agree with you. Like you want to be on the Bengals side here for the same reason you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Do you want to be betting against Joe Burrow, who lights out this year, who has an underdog, is second only to Patrick Mahomes and how well he performs amongst this current class of quarterbacks? You don't. The reason why there would be any sentiment in favor of the Chargers right now is because this has been a very strange gambling year, you know,

to look macro here, you is a businessman as someone who has succeeded far beyond just being a media personality. The past two weeks has been earning season for publicly traded companies, right? That includes sports betting operators. The two major sports betting operators both had to reduce their revenue expectations for the year because of what they have defined as customer-friendly outcomes, meaning there has been hundreds of millions of dollars in reduced revenue because so many favorites are winning this year, so many more than expected, right? And what that means is that teams like the Chargers

have been over-exceeding the expectation as favorites because they do exactly what you want them to do. They don't make high-variance coaching decisions because Harbaugh is very consistent. You know what he's going to do. They don't turn the ball over. They're really disciplined, so they don't have the stupid penalties that a lot of other teams have having,

and those things have been impacting the games in a much wider way than they have in previous years. So that's why people like the Chargers right now is the Chargers are making people money. But the sharp side in this game are the Bengals. Always a game I want you to pick for me. I like Denver at home minus two and a half against Atlanta. Kirk Cousins, not 100%. Pennix could play. And though he played it Indiana and Washington, cold wet weather areas,

it's a tough opening assignment. Denver's getting a tremendous pass rush. I do worry that outplaying Kansas City and losing the way they did is an emotional gut punch for the Broncos. I do think there's something there. But Bo Nicks and this Denver team, they know they're not a hoist a trophy team. Like, they know they're going to lose games like this. They have a rookie quarterback, a thin roster.

And I think there's value in playing close and outplaying the Super Bowl champs. I think they actually come out of that game thinking, shit, Bo Necks outplayed Mahomes. I don't think this is a veteran team that really sags and thinks, you know, Buffalo losing to the Chiefs again the following week. You're like, you really have a low energy locker room. I'm going to take Denver here. Tell me why I'm right or wrong. Well, I actually cannot decide on this game.

It's so interesting you bring it up because early in the week, I loved Atlanta here. I thought to myself, Atlanta really shouldn't have lost that game against New Orleans. And you know I love New Orleans last week. I tried to get you to come along with me on New Orleans. You are not having it. You will not bet games. You can't want to watch. They don't want to watch you.

Totally get it. Respect the theory. But I felt like at the end of the game, New Orleans scored three points in the second half. The Falcons missed multiple field goals, including a field goal that could have tied the game with six minutes left. They had a very unlucky game. And now you got Kirk Cousins, who just historically is great.

against the spread, great straight up, coming off a loss. I really like the way the Falcons have been running the ball. Bejohn has been a different level of player than he was in his rookie season. He's showing all the things that everyone was excited about, receding out of the backfield, his ability to run away from tacklers, the ability to run people over. I then thought about, okay, two and a half feels high. You know, it feels like you're overvaluing the Broncos and their ability,

and what they did against the Chiefs. And I, like you, I felt like the Broncos would walk away of that, that came against the Chiefs and be like, we're emboldened. I would not be crushed if I were them at all. I'd be going into thinking,

wow, we can hang. Like, we are a really good team. And you and I have talked about this. What Sean Payton has done with Bo Nix, talk about the opposite of Caleb Williams, right? Like, he is basically thrown the book at him and gotten him better and better and better every single week.

And that Falcon's defense, they don't pressure anybody. Bo Nix is going to look at this and be like, are they even playing defense? Is anybody trying to come after me because of the difference between how aggressive the chiefs are? So I'm having a hard time

finding the winner in this one. I'm probably not going to bet it. I don't have a strong opinion. The wise guys don't really have a strong opinion on this either. They lean Denver, but you're not seeing people run under the window saying, I've got to get a ticket on the Broncos.

finally, what's the game I should be betting that I have overlooked? I mean, I can't believe I have to say it. But hello, Cleveland? Like, are you kidding me? We've got the Browns off a by with a healthier defense. What's the line? You look at their injury report. There's nobody on it.

So Kevin Stefansky builds a game plan where he's basically just handing the ball to Nick Chubb behind what if it had been healthy from the beginning of the year would have been a top five offensive line. And you've got a top five defensive line going against Derek Carr, who when he's not pressured, as we saw against the Falcons, can be a really good quarterback. And when he is pressured, basically becomes one of the most losing quarterbacks in NFL history. So how am I? not betting the Browns after the Saints basically just won their Super Bowl. This was the game they had to win.

I will not bet on the Saints again this year. That was a one-time thing. Now we'll bet the Browns. And by the way, the wise guys have been betting the Browns. The line opened to two and a half, down to two, one and a half, one. Now it's a half. There are a lot of places where the Browns, it's going to flip, and they're going to be favorite. So if you want to get it, get it now.

Cleveland minus one at New Orleans. How disgusting. So disgusting. Not only that, you are betting on James in his homecoming revenge game in New Orleans, the team that ran him out of town after he got Jamal Williams a touchdown last year. Like, he is going to, Kevin Stefansky is going to have to do everything he can possibly do to keep James from making terrible, terrible throws and putting him in bad position. and then the 15 times that he asks him to throw in the game,

he's just got to cross his fingers and pray. Any feeling on the Seahawks getting six and a half at San Francisco? Zero. Same. Same. I can't get a read. The Niners, you look at the box score, they should have beaten the Buccaneers by 900 points.

Believe me, it was my lock of the year, San Francisco. Yeah. It made no. sense. And even like the Jake Moody misses, if he had made one of those field goals, the last field goal, they still win by six and they cover the five and a half. So it makes no sense to me. The red zone struggles continue. You got to wonder, how much does Brandon I, you not being there really make a difference? Clearly, it's something. It's more than just Debo and any injuries or Christian McCaffrey in any injuries. I also wonder, look, Trent Williams,

who we love and is a dominant offensive lineman and one of the best in the NFL, he missed all the training camp and he's old. So you got to ask yourself, all right, did that actually have more of an impact? They aren't as dominant and offensive line. They already weren't a great offensive line going into the season.

And what Kyle Shanahan's schemes usually masks that deficiency, less so this year. So I don't have an opinion in this. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, like they just waived their leading tackler. I think they're still trying to figure out who they are defensively. So I'm going to pass on this game. As always, Chad Millman.

Thanks, man. Good to see you, brother. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you, funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an

a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-heart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related. episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at a podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human