The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 'Sharp or Square' AFC/NFC Championship Picks, 'Fake Q's, Real Answers" on Sean Payton, Rodgers, Big Ben

Episode Date: January 28, 2022

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Interviews" on the head coaches who are strangely not getting interviews, why Sean Payton got burnt out, the coaching trend he's keeping his eye on, what Aaron Rodgers got wrong about football culture, and how Big Ben reminds him of a famous (and somewhat infamous) actor. Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his AFC/NFC Championship picks - Bengals/Chiefs (14:00) and 49ers/Rams (24:00) - are "Sharp or Square", and they discuss the rough end to Aaron Rodgers' season (30:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Chad Millman, our picks, AFC, NFC, NFC Championship. What a week. Hope you like that Nick Wright interview. It's one of my favorites. But first, fake questions, real answers. There's stuff I want to talk about, but I don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, what do you make of some of these coaching hires?

Excellent question. Forget the hires. I don't even understand the interview process. process. How does Jason Garrett not get an interview? He coached nine and a half years in Dallas and had one losing season, the year Tony Romo fell apart physically. The NFC East was not the circus it is today. The Giants won a Super Bowl during his stay. The Eagles went from Andy Reed to Doug Peterson. Washington went through a renaissance with RG3. The division was pretty darn sound. during Jason Garrett's reign. I don't understand it. He's not getting an interview. I got nothing against Vic Fangio.

Did you watch the Broncos games? That offense was remedial. It's an offensive league. Jason Garrett's an offensive coach. Vic Fangio got an interview with the Jaguars. I wouldn't let him in the building to meet Trevor Lawrence. I got nothing against Vance Joseph or Rahim Morris. They were disasters in their first job.

I'm not saying they can't get a second interview. How is Jason Garrett not getting interviewed? Is Doug Peterson even getting interviewed? He beat Brady and Belichick with Nick Foles in a Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell won 56% of his games and made the playoffs twice in Detroit. How is he not interviewing for every one of these jobs? I don't even understand it. It's recency bias, I guess.

And I guess Jason Garrett is now not a hot property. He'd certainly get an interview with me. Dear Colin, explain the burnout from Sean Payton. Well, Sean Payton is an example of what I would call the curse of being great. When you're great, you rise to prominence and then you have to fend off everybody as they try to catch up to you and steal assistance from you and steal your ideas and poach ideas from you. He's one of the great originators of offensive football in the 21st century. He gained more yards and put up more points than any NFL coach in their first 100 games. Think about the Saints offensive rankings since he took over with New Orleans in 2006.

Number one, number four, number one, number one, number six, number one, number one, number two, number four, number one, number two, number one, number two. Then as Breeze got older, number eight, number nine, number 12. and the league was copying him and chasing him. There's only been 14, 5,000-yard passing seasons in league history. Drew Breeze has five. And remember, Breeze, especially the second half of his career, did not throw the ball downfield as much. Very few cheap yards from Drew Breeze.

If I ran Fox Sports, I said it a couple of days ago. I'd give him a bunch of money, get him in house, and figure out how to use him. He's just a brilliant offensive mind in an increasingly offensive league. Dear Colin, what will you be keeping your eye on as the rest of the postseason plays out in the NFL? Well, think about this. We have four coaches left, three are young, Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan, and Zach Taylor. Andy Reed is the old guy left. But the last three coaches to win the Super Bowl, old guy,

Bruce Ariens, old guy Andy Reed, old guy Bill Belichick. If you pull back to the last 10 years, that list includes old guy Pete Carroll, Tom Coughlin, old guy, and Bill Belichick several times. Young coaches are innovators. They're fresh. They're exciting. They're new. Experience matters a lot at the end of seasons.

I'll take Andy Reed to win this weekend and win the Super Bowl. Dear Colin, you've been critical of Aaron Rogers. Please don't stop. Give me something else that irks you about Aaron. Well, these questions are fantastic this week. One of the things I think is important. I continue to love sports. Right?

You don't want to hear me complain about sports being tired or tedious. Tom Brady loves football. He's obsessed by it. So was Peyton Manning. So was Russell Wilson. Kobe Bryant. Michael Jordan. I don't care about your balanced life.

I'm not interested in your off seasons. I want a guy who wants to win as much as I do. Aaron Rogers keeps reminding us that he'd be fine without football. I don't think that's great self-awareness. Fans don't want to hear it. Your coaches don't want to hear it. I'm not sure your executives want to hear it. Aaron has this need to project that he's,

has a very broad, sophisticated life, and football is but a tiny slice of the pie. Yeah, it wasn't for Michael Jordan or Kobe or LeBron or Brady or Montana. Yeah, Joe Montana didn't spend a lot of time talking about his wineries in Napa until he retired. Aaron keeps reminding us he is so smart and so sophisticated he could have a beautiful, beautiful life without football, like Fav. You're going to leave. We're going to say bye, and the league will continue to grow. Guess what? Aaron, football doesn't need you either, I guess.

Dear Colin, how will we look back at Big Ben's career several years from now? Well, I said this the other day on television. He reminds me of Marlon Brando. From 1950 through the 70s, Brando was one of the great, if not the greatest actor of all time. He won an Oscar for on the Waterfront and the Godfather. but the last 15 years of his life, the Larry King interviews, he was a punchline. They made fun of him on Saturday Night Live, on Letterman.

He was just a, he was a mess. John Travolta made fun of him on Saturday Night Live. And if John Travolta thinks he's crazy, he must be crazy. Ben similarly, like Marlon Brando, will be viewed iconically once we get a little distance from his career. But if you've had to live in it, in the last 10 years, he couldn't beat Brady, couldn't beat Peyton, couldn't beat Mahomes. And the minute Joe Burrow got healthy, he dominates the division. Let's be honest, it's been 12 years since Big Ben won even a divisional round playoff game

against another elite to semi-elite quarterback, Joe Flacco, 2012. So from afar, 10 years from now, two Super Bowls, eight division titles, a big statue, Top 10 passing yards and touchdowns. But it's been a pretty turbulent flight with a lot of disappointments for the last 10 years, just like Marlon Brando. All right, everybody. Welcome in. Time for another edition of Sharp or Square. Now, I bring in Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

He is, of course, a Sharp, somebody who bets talks to professional. professional sports gamblers. I am, of course, a square. I think all of you know that on many levels. And so let's bring in Chad Milman, chief content officer of the Action Network. So how did you do last weekend? I forget. I did incredibly well. I believe we discussed this on this podcast last week. I loved the Titans minus three and a half. that didn't work out, clearly. You could argue right side, bad outcome. You get nine sacks. You got a quarterback who throws three interceptions.

You've got a chance to go ahead by a touchdown. You've got the ball deep in their territory. You can't convert fourth and one. Bad luck. I also say the right side is the winning side and that side lost. I was on Los Angeles plus three. We talked about that. I had talked about the San Francisco 49ers plus five and a half.

And this was one where all of the professionals, the betting market loved the Buffalo bills. They loved them at plus two and a half. They loved them at plus two. It got that down to one and a half. And this is germane to the conversation today, I bet. I never, it never made sense to me. Patrick Mahomes' transcendent talent.

We talked about this when you're saying, who are the first? five quarterbacks you would take right now, to me, Patrick Mahomes was number one, not even a question. I don't care how much he's getting paid. And we saw that bear out. You just don't bet against Patrick Mahomes at home on a short number in a game like that. That was my side. That was my best bet of the week. That was the one I bet. I bet Kansas City. I got minus one and a half. I will tell you, I was shocked the Niners beat Green Bay. I'm very rarely shocked in the NFL. I was shocked. Why?

By healthy, rested, Aaron Rogers, quarterback edge. I thought Green Bay was a more physical team than previous years. They wouldn't be as rattled and unsettled against a very good defensive front. And Aaron Rogers, as the kind of reigning MVP at home off a by, should generally out duel Jimmy Garoppolo. Crazy of me. I was wrong.

Well, look, you, when you bet the five and a half on the Niners, it's always good to take a little piece of the money line to, especially on those short favorites. You don't have to bet a whole unit, right? Units are generally representative of the amount of money you normally bet on a game. If you normally bet 50 bucks on a game, that's one unit. If you're betting $100 on a game and you're normally a $50 bet, better, that's two units, right? So units are really representative of how comfortable you are

with a particular number and how much confidence you have. If you like a team that is a short underdog, it always makes sense to put a little bit on that team to win outright. I know a lot of professional betters who did that with the Niners because they were certainly the sharp side last week. So here we go. Bengals plus seven at the Chiefs. Andy Reid's not only great off a buy. This is not a buy. When he faces a team for the second time within a year, he's 23, 13, and one against the spread. Mahomes at home, I still don't think the Bengals are completely healthy. Their offensive line is obviously the weakness right now of their franchise. I felt last week they had topped out. I feel the difference is the chiefs are a much more dynamic offense than Tennessee. I

would take Kansas City to win. I think they'll dominate. I think they'll cover. I think it's potentially a blowout, sharp or square. That is a square play, my friend. I can't say that you're alone. For the record, you know, we do the favorites podcast for the volume and me and professional better Simon Hunter. All of the wise guys are coming in on the Bengals. And this was sort of of the biggest debate that we had today. I love the Bengals in this spot. If you can get the Bengals at seven and a half, you should. The majority of the money is coming in on the Bengals. The majority of the tickets are coming in on the Chiefs. When you have that discrepancy, it basically means the professionals are on the Bengals. The public are on the Chiefs. The Bengals, most people

have this game power rated five to six. So you're getting a lot of the game. about anywhere from a point to two points of an advantage if you're betting the Bengals. The Chiefs played the six most man coverage in the NFL this year. Cincinnati had an NFL best 11.4 yards per pass attempt against man coverage. Kansas City against the playoff teams from the divisional weekend in this season were one and three. Their one win was against Buffalo and overtime. Obviously, none of those games have been by more than seven points in Kansas City,

They played 19 games this year, only eight wins of seven or more. Cincinnati played in 19 games, only two losses of seven or more. So, but what really gets me here, what really gets me is that this is a huge, huge number for a Cincinnati team that is as explosive as it is, and that has a quarterback who does not get rattled, who's very, very good against the Blitz, and who has talent in Jamar Chase, who can get downfield and score points in a bunch of them. So if this game as the Chiefs up by 14 with two minutes left and a Swiss cheese defense that has gotten better, but it's still not, you know, top 20 defense, do I really think that the Bengals aren't going to find a way to score a touchdown in less than two minutes? I'm taking the seven, seven and a half because of the back door. That's really it. I think the Chiefs are going to win. I think they're probably win by a decent number. But there's backdoor protection here, especially if you can get the seven and a half.

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A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

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They narrowly beat the Jaguars. They narrowly lost to the Bears. They narrowly beat the Vikings early. It's an interesting team. I'm looking at the best teams they played this year. They hammered the Raiders in Vegas. They got hammered by the Chargers, narrow loss to the Bengals.

They hammered the Ravens. They beat Kansas City, narrow loss at home to the Packers. So there is, and they beat the Titans. There is an argument to be made that sometimes they play to their competition. and they play their best football against the best teams. We've seen that before. I was going to say the thing about the Bengals that's interesting.

And this was a huge debate that we had today that Simon and I had today on the podcast, which was the Bengals have been winning in fluky ways, right? And they sort of beat the Raiders but got a little bit of help from the officials and had a ball tip off a helmet that probably would have tied the game if not for that. And then they beat the Titans, even though getting sack nine times. They got Ryan Tannahill and a bad game plan and the Titans aren't making good calls offensively. My counter to that is that the Bengals have the kind of offense and the kind of makeup and the kind of players that overcome the flukiness that is around them. And so you see this all the time with teams.

Some teams, they create their own luck. Some teams put themselves in position to win, even when everything else around them doesn't make sense analytically. And so I know a lot of people who are saying the chief's in a blowout because of everything we've seen. And I've just seen too much of the Bengals in positions to keep games close because of the personnel they have in the field. All right. Let's go Sharper Square. Niners plus three and a half at the Rams. So Sean McVeigh has averaged about 27 and a half points since he came into this league with Jared Goff and Matt Stafford.

In the last six games against the 49ers, he's averaged about 18 points. So almost 10 points less. I think this matchup, and a couple of these matchups in the last six against the Niners, they scored seven once, they scored 10 once, they scored only seven in the second half in overtime in their last matchup. I think the defensive front, which has a couple of first rounders, is a matchup problem for the Rams because I think the defensive line talent, Armstead boasts of first round picks,

simply overwhelm less talented players for the Rams. I think the Rams offensive line as a unit is very good in pass protection. The run is often blown up. Sean McVeigh's run game is often blown up by this defensive front. Add in Fred Warner, who I think is the best linebacker in football. This is a matchup problem for the Rams. This game will be close. Sharper square.

I think the Niners, three and a half is the side. So that's the sharp side. What's really interesting here is that you'd think a Niners team that swept the Rams that has done what you've described sort of schematically that is 6-0 straight up the past three seasons. They've won all five games when they've been an underdog. This is a team that you would think this line gets posted. It should be Rams minus three, and it should stay there.

It's been at three and a half all week. It's barely come down. You look at the numbers, the majority of the bets, by a very small percentage, whereas like the Chiefs and Bengals, there's a wide disparity between the money bet on the Bengals and the tickets on the Chiefs. This one is much closer. It's all in that 40 to 60 range, that band. But it's a little bit in favor of the Rams, which is why the number hasn't come back down

to three, there are a bunch of syndicates. And syndicates, we've talked about this. These are these groups that are professional betters. They pool their money. They bet a lot, sort of game to game together. From the beginning of the season, they've been on the Rams. And this is sort of indicative of the believing in the Rams. It's a really interesting spot. To me, it's kind of like with the bangles, if you're getting that hook, you take the hook. I mean, this is a matchup. Jimmy G. is 15 and 4 as a dog in his career. 14 and 5 straight up straight up as a dog. Best winning percentage of any quarterback in Super Bowl era in Super Bowl era as a dog. Kyle Shanhan, 18 and 10 as a road dog. 7 and 3 against the spread against McVeigh. Homefield here is basically a zero. We've seen it.

We've seen the Rams trying to manipulate the ticket selling. So it favors the Rams. Most professionals have this game power rated as Rams minus one, so there's about two and a half points of value. And schematically, you're right. Like, to me, the Niners can attack the middle of the field and use the Rams aggressiveness on defense with Von Miller, with Aaron Donald against them. And you can see how Debo will get these pitches in the back field and find a way to cut inside rather than having to run outside based on the aggressiveness of the Rams defense. So I think the Rams are the right side here. You're getting a hook and you're getting a team that matches up really well. You know, it's funny how my mind,

when I start looking at the Bengals and you start looking at a lot of the numbers, I just can't see a Cincinnati Bengals 49er Super Bowl. I just can't. It feels like a Rams Chief Super Bowl. Stranger things have happened. But, you know, it's interesting.

You look at all these young coaches left, Shanahan, McVeigh, Zach Taylor, go and look at the last four or five Super Bowl coaches that have won. Andy Reed, Bruce Ariens, Bill Belichick. If you extend it, you know, the last 10 or 12 years, you get Tom Coughlin, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll, Belichick lots of times. I do think my feeling on the final four teams, I do feel strongly about Andy Reed winning a Super Bowl, which I would root for because I really like him.

But there is some value. You are seeing a lot of offensive coaches take over the league, but the old guys, the old guys offense or defense usually do well. Does that mean anything to you? No, not necessarily. I mean, I think sometimes there are just sort of coincidences, right? And it's about rosters. And oftentimes it's about quarterbacks.

And Bill Belichick has had the best quarterback. Andy Reed has had the best quarterback. Bruce Ariens has had the best quarterback. And I think that's why people would say, all right, Patrick Mahomes plays for the Chiefs. What they're doing is unprecedented. What he can do is unprecedented. There's nobody watching that game the other night against the bills when it was 13 seconds who wasn't on their feet wherever they were thinking there's a chance, right?

He's too good of a quarterback. So that's why people think, okay, the Chiefs blow him out. That's why people think, okay, the Chiefs, look, the Chiefs have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, right? now. There's no doubt people are favoring keeps to win at all. When I think about the coaches that are left, Shanahan, Zach Taylor, McVeigh, Andy Reid. I love Andy Reid. I wanted Andy Reid to win at least one Super Bowl because I do think in this era, you could argue that he is as good, if not better, a coach than Bill Belichick. And the only difference has been quality of quarterbacks. but what he has done for the game creatively,

offensively, the development of his coaching tree. Amazing. Love the guy. I want to see Kyle Shanhan win one. I just think he's the best coach in the NFL. I think he gets more joy and passion out of having second and third stringers and figuring out what to do with them and getting people like Debo Samuel and turning them into sort of all-around football players.

That to me is a gift. I love watching this guy coach. By the way, I want to circle back Aaron Rogers now. even as a favorite in many of these home Lambo playoff games, buy home, favorite, quarterback advantage, Aaron Rogers loses. Didn't you think it was interesting? You know, Aaron's a very complex guy. He keeps reminding us how he doesn't need football, how he'd be wildly happy if he retired.

He has to keep reminding us over and over. You know, it's constant projecting on how, you know, Brady's telling us how much he loves football. Aaron Rogers keeps reminding us he doesn't really need football, which I feel is, you know, is speaking on so many levels to some of the weird insecurities with Aaron Rogers. But did you notice after the Mercedes-Luice fumble, next two drives, three-and-out, three-and-out, no yards, Aaron gets into these weird tunnels where he plays the victim constantly. You know, he like rips the president, rips vaccines, rips Fauci, and then he plays the victim. I can't believe people are critical of me.

Well, those are polarizing topics and polarizing things to take on, right? Presidents and vaccines. and I think he's a really odd bird. And I found once again in a big spot, if you put a little pressure on Aaron, he was unsettled. And Greg Cosell told me today, he just didn't look like Aaron. And I do think there are certain quarterbacks in this league that need to be comfortable to be successful. And they don't deal well as well from behind. Matt Stafford's always been a very good quarterback from behind.

He had the highest fourth quarter pass rating in the NFL. The ship was leaking water this past weekend. He was fine. Stafford, surprisingly, has some really interesting fourth quarter passer rating stats, even in Detroit. But what did you make of sort of Aaron Rogers in the offense evaporating after the opening drive? To me, that was as much about what San Francisco did, how they adjusted, what Kyle Shanahan and did. You watched that first drive. And those of us who were Niners backers, those of us who bet the under, we're like, oh, we're screwed. This is done. And you think to yourself, how could we have

ever thought this? And almost immediately you could see the Niners were able to adjust what they were doing defensively. What's really interesting and what's impressive about the Niners, and you mention the pressure. Forget about Aaron Rogers off the field for a second. It's sort of how you manage pressure, how you manage criticism, how you take in what the criticism is and ignore what your role in sort of achieving that criticism or getting that criticism is. On the field, he's just not very good under pressure. I mean, there are statistical measurements to show. Aaron Rogers, under pressure, has just not been a very good quarterback. And what the Niners can do is get up the field pressure with just four players. You mentioned the defensive line, right? So

they're able to drop back in coverage. And that has a huge impact on what a team like the Niners do, what the Packers do. And also offensively, what a team like the Rams does, where they're running a lot of crossing routes, where they've got a lot of people out in running their routes. And the Niners can find ways to get seven people dropping back into coverage and messing up sort of the air traffic. I think that was a huge hindrance for them. And then the Niners just sort of did what they do is they found a way to be creative, which is why I love Kyle Shanahan so much.

So I do think on the field, the pressure had a huge impact on our Rodgers. Sharper Square, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We love having the favorites on our volume feed. Can't wait. Great talking to you, buddy. Great talking to you, too, my friend. I'll talk to you later. The volume.

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firmer stools, improved health, and even longer lives. Give us two weeks, and we'll change your dog's life forever. Visit JustFoodforDogs.com slash mobile and save 10% on your first purchase. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.