The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 12!

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 12 of the NFL slate! 4:45 - Commanders vs Cowboys 7:00 - Bears vs Vikings 10:00 - Cardinals vs Seahawks 12:00 - Packers vs 49ers 14:00 - Rams vs Eagles 16:00 - Chargers vs Ravens 24:00 - Patriots vs Dolphins 26:30 - Colts vs Lions 29:00 - Broncos vs Raiders 31:15 - Chiefs vs Panthers 35:00 - Titans vs Texans   Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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So I had a rant today on my very popular syndicated radio show, Millman. Yeah, no, I'm familiar. I've heard it's big. People are talking. So my take is what you don't want to become is the NBA, a very strong top, a soft middle, and 10 teams to 11 teams at the bottom that are unwatchable and non-competitive, mostly the Eastern Conference now. And I said as the NFL has become more quarterback-centric based on a CTE lawsuit and changes of rules,

pivoting to the offense, that we are getting to be a little NBA-ish in the NFL, a very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty soft middle of like the Seahawks Rams, and nine teams with two or three wins, several appear to be soft tanking. And so I have never been prone to big favorites, but Detroit last week at minus 14 felt like one of the smarter bets. So the commanders minus 10 and a half, though I locked it in at 10 this week on the herd. But I think one team's soft tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot. One team is now on a backup and not a great backup. The other team has one of the better rookie quarterbacks in a long time.

That team's at home playing for something. I know it's not sharp, sharper square, but I like the commanders here. Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it, it's like you're waiting for me to tell you, yeah. You know what? Colin, the wise guys are with you. This is the week where they've decided they love massive divisional favorites. I'm here to tell you they don't.

Right. The wise guys like the Cowboys. And part of this is, yes, the number is so big. But there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels, right? He was not very good against the Eagles last week on third. Thursday night. In fact, like, since that opening four-game stretch where he was completing 80% of his passes, he has yet to complete more than 70% of his passes in a game. And so you have to ask yourself, as he started to come back down to earth, has teams started to figure him out,

that's really the key to this game. And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of being able to be a competitive to competent quarterback in the NFL, certainly more than a lot of other backups in the league. And frankly, a lot of the starters that we see in the league. But the wise guys are going to be on the Cowboys here because this number in a division game is just too big for a rookie quarterback who's steadily declined as the season has gone on. And by the way, the rookie of the year, odds are a great way to look at that, right? How much is Bo Nix crept up in behind Jaden Daniels in the rookie of the year conversation?

So the market is starting to recognize some of that. So I like the Bears plus three and a half hosting the Vikings lost in the blocked kick was that they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well-coached team, that they schemed up layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good. They just didn't finish well. Minnesota, you always talk about the luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy, they leave a lot of points on the floor.

God. I mean, that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have been 40 to 10. I like Chicago. I think they have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay, and I like their personnel, Caleb played with confidence, the OC change mattered, sharp or square? So it's sharp-ish. Don't forget, this line opened at five. So the wise guys bet it at five, they bet it at four and a half, they're still betting it a little bit at three, at three and a half. If it gets any further than this, if I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you are

locking in the bears at three and a half. You don't want to say you're on the bears at three. You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did. He had 246 yards passing. 40% of his yards in the air came on three passes, right? So he is not having a very good sort of second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The problem for me, and this is where I'm like,

I challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like the bears largely because they think that Caleb did what you just said. He looked better. He was getting rid of the ball in less than two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's been doing that, right? Can they really block against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than the Packers? Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks. And Caleb Williams this season, when he is facing a team that has a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive plays that end in a sack, when he's facing a team that is a sack percentage of more than 2.2%

he's 1 in 6. So you're looking at a guy who is facing a team that is a sack percentage of 5.5%. And a lot of times it's not even because they're bringing pressure. They're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks. So to me, that's really the matchup you have to be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game. I just don't think there's any value in this number.

Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play. Cardinals plus one now at the Seahawks. I've said this for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is. I think they're well-coached. I'm not sure of it. Sometimes they're smartly quarterback. Sometimes they're not.

I think they'll move D.K. Metcalfe at some point in the near future. He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is. Greg Cosell said it on my show this week. They don't, outside of Buda Baker, have great defensive personnel. They are really smartly schemed. And I think this is an offense that is young in spots that is growing in confidence. I like teams that have an identity as the season goes on.

It takes teams time. Even the Patriots, Julian Edelman has said it took all of our teams time to find the identity. By week 12, sometimes. team still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does. Sharper square. So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly who they are, right? They are a, even on defense, they are still a physical football team. James Connor is a really violent runner. And they know if they are able to get him the ball and be effective in the running game, that makes Kyler, that.

much more effective in the passing game. And they're just going to be the better team because of those two players, especially against the team like the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells you how much they don't know who they are. It's like they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a buy in advance of a huge division game.

And I would not take anything from the Seahawks win against the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the Niners with Nick. Bosa going out. I think that impacted the game tremendously. So wise guys are with you. The Cardinals are inside, you know, unintended. They're putting the cards on the table here, right? Because they can take significant control of that division coming off a by with a lot of hype on this team right now.

So it's a big step-up game for them. I like Green Bay at home minus one and a half now. If Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed. It's okay. Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the linchpin of the defense.

And when he's out and he's banged up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're a five and five football team. And they're not very good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush. Brock Purdy is fine. He's not the issue.

They miss a deep threat now. Christian McCaffrey is still not at 100%. On the road, Green Bay. The best kind of team to best. They won and played poorly. You can coach him hard, Green Bay's home, minus one and a half sharper square. Totally square. The wise guys are all over the Niners here.

The number was a two and a half. They were kind of waiting on the Brock Purdy news because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder and was going to be day to day. He practiced yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa here. It was about Brock Purdy. And the wise guys look at the Niners. you just mentioned luck, there's no bigger difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than the Packers who are at the top of the luck rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year

in games they've won. A lot of turnover luck, a lot of blocked kick, luck wrapped up in one specific play last week. The Niners have had terrible luck, terrible turnovers at the wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games, right? So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically opposite in terms of how things have played out for them. And you ask a lot of wise guys, and they'll say they have this game even on the road at Green Bay, Power Rader to pick. So you're getting a point and a half of value right now on the Niners.

So that's why the wise guys like them. Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage. I like Philly minus two and a half. It'll be a 60 to 70% Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense is very interesting, but incredibly young. And they're kind of pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well. I think rosters, it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a semi-home field advantage for Philadelphia.

They're humming. I don't have to love Nick Sariani. They are humming. Sequin Barkley is playing the best football. He's ever played in his life. life. They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind of surprised at the line. I thought it would be bigger, sharper square. Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's no consensus here. We talked about this on the favorites today, that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in

on the Rams when it's at three. They've come in on the Eagles when it's at two and a half, and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you. I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams the past two weeks. I felt like they were in good spots against the dolphins, lost it, in good spots against the paths, won it. The offensive line is not playing well, and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford, but they're not very well. And the key to this team, and you and I have talked about this, Sean McVe, for all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes to run the ball. And that's the strength of this team. I don't see the Rams being able to run the ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by the way, Vic Fangio, brilliant defensive

coordinator since week five, the Eagles have gone from 27th in EPA, which is basically a fancy way of saying how many points they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play to first. Like this defense has finally figured out what he was trying to teach them and they're locked in in the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to pro football focus. That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper Cup and Pooker and Pooka Nukuwa. So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I think it's a good spot for them.

Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game go back on the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago, now that they're healthy, are a really good football team, special teams, offense, they're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense, they're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have like a Pittsburgh Green Bay San Francisco crowd, so it will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home. Again, Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable. The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I like the Chargers plus two and a half sharper square. Two and a half is not where the wise guys like it. They loved it at three. I think if you're playing a two and a half, you're kind of tempting fate, right? You would expect this to be

a field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively, they're great, but who have they really played? We saw a little bit of that Achilles' heel against the Bengals when the Bengals did such a good job coming back and probably should have won that game, if not for some really some bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags. And the Chargers kind of blew it, right?

So can the Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done all year, which has beat them in the second half through the air. They have the talent. I think everyone is seeing what's going on with Lab McConkey and are excited about him as a connection with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year. So you're going to have to expect them to do something they haven't done this year in the second half, which is convert, and you're going to have to expect them to do it and basically

win the game because you're betting less than the field will. So at two and a half, it's just not very sure. The NFL seasons rolling along, the contenders are separated. from the pack. The one thing that hasn't changed this season is Draft King's Sportsbook an official sports book partner of the NFL, our friends at the volume. It's the number one place to bet touchdowns. Fade of the corner of the end zone, running back breaks through the line, gallop 60 yards for a touchdown. They don't care how you get them. They want to bet on touchdowns and you should at Draft Kings the best place to do it. If you're ready to place your

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We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, for people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds.

Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing.

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their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the parrot. I'd be too nervous. That's right.

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I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to Crimesis on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as dolphins, divisional rivalry game. I think Drake May is finding himself. Miami's one of those teams where you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow more opportunities than they should.

I think Miami wins this game, but this just feels like an obvious sharp side. New England playing hard. People playing for stuff here. Young team, young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want the number one pick, nor do they need it because they have their quarterback. They're not soft tanking for Shadoor Sanders. You know, they have to upgrade it positions, defensive end and wide receiver,

and it's a defensive end wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard, keep it close, Sharper Square. Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots. There's no doubt about it. And if you've watched the dolphins the past two weeks,

they were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great. They got to Matthew Stafford. But the Rams gave that game away. Five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns. They were missing snaps. They were thrown, you know, tipped interceptions.

They did not play well. And if you look at the game against the Raiders last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points with three and a half minutes left. There was a miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them instead of getting the Raiders the ball back. And that was sort of the end of the game. And they end up scoring 35 points or whatever it is. But they were up five by five points.

The Raiders were going to cover that game, and if they had gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I have been really impressed with Drake May. He's just a gamer. And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It doesn't seem to really know how to run the math yet when you're going for two. Should you go for one? when do you want to go forward on fourth down? He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of pivot spots for the game.

And that's where the biggest challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover. But the wise guys are with you. They like the seven and a half. I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions, remember, they have to play on Thanksgiving. And they're playing perfect football. The Colts, I thought Anthony Richardson looked as good as he. has ever looked. I think they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of that is the Jets aren't very

good. But I've been saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel. I really do. I like both of their lines, especially their O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could see the lines looking ahead to Thanksgiving. They're blowing people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven and a half at home, sharper square. Couldn't be sharper. Sharp as play of the week. Like the Colts are one of those teams where a lot of wise guys, when they look at this, certainly have I think about it when I'm deciding if I want to bet one of these ugly dogs is, do I believe this is sort of the right side from a number perspective? Is the team they are playing against going to have an overinflated number because they're public because of what they've been doing?

The answer to that is yes. Nobody is winning it a better clip than the Lions. They are the odds on favor to win the Super Bowl. That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number Number one, great. I like the Colts here. Number two, do I believe there's a part of the game where they can be dominant? You just mentioned their offensive line. Best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been playing great. And I think with Anthony Richardson, I think he played great last week. I think with his ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get pressure since Aidan Hutchinson. They just can't. Every stat will show you they are not a team that's getting a lot of pressure. So that's number two. I'd like that. Number three,

there are a ton of trends that back this up. And sometimes trends can be self-fulfilling. But in this case, you got teams who are road favorites, the game after being a double-digit favorite in any location. They've had significant against spread struggles the past decade, 43% against the spread, teams that are averaging 33 plus points and a 90% win percentage, those teams, in this scenario,

in this scenario, 32% against the spread. And if they are coming off a double-digit win, 25% against the spread. There's a lot of match-up reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons. And there's trend reasons. So checks out of the boxes. Okay, a game I want you to talk me into Broncos minus 6 at the Raiders. I know it's a divisional rivalry.

But when you have young quarterbacks and young teams growing in confidence, sometimes the market's behind them. Denver's a really interesting team right now. So we know their defense has been exceptional. Bone Knicks is making leaps like big, no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton text me this week and he's like, you know, you guys, his arm is way better than anybody understands. Greg CoSell echoed that this week. He's like he's making NFL elite throws down the middle of the field, hard, deep throws.

Arm is not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the Broncos are the side for me, Sharper Square. Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to this week as wise guys continue to be really impressed with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened by that Chiefs loss. And we saw it last week, right? Like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on the Broncos.

They loved the Broncos in that game. And it matched, right? Like it was a Falcons team that was coming in and they were supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same way this week about the Raiders. I think the number's gotten too high.

It's at six and that's because the wise guys have been betting it up. There's no matchup reason to like the Raiders. They're terrible team. They seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner Minshu has some ridiculous turnover. he's got four lost fumbles this year, which is I think second in the NFL.

He's got, I think, nine interceptions, which is third in the NFL, 13 total turnovers. Like, that's the script for this game, is Gardner Minshue's down by 12 points, double-digit, something, has a chance to put his team and get him through the back door,

and he does something that costs his team the game, and, you know, he loses the ball, he fumbles, whatever. So you're probably on the right side, but I think you've lost the value in the number. Okay, and finally, give me a game I missed. I like Kansas City off a loss, minus 11 at Carolina, but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know, Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahom doesn't lose, even though he's not a great big favorite, Carolina's a bad team and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.

But give me something else. Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say it. like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks that he played. They like the idea that this is also a really good run blocking unit. And while the chief's run blocking,

run stopping defense is elite, there's still an opportunity here for the chiefs. And if they aren't running it very well, they have liked what they've seen, the wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially against the chief secondary that isn't very good. You've got to go on the road.

Win is a double-digit favorite. It's just a bad spot. And historically, now this year, double-digit favorites are rushing. Like, it's been... That's my take at the top of this podcast was... Yeah. We're getting to be the NBA. The difference between Denver and Orlando is significant.

Yes. So let me give you a couple stats here then. If you're going to be talking about this, because it helps illuminate it a little bit. So double-digit favorites are 5 in 0 this year. It's the first time they've been undefeated, not against the spread, just undefeated, this late in the year in 20 seasons,

only the second time in the past 40 seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is, though. They are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to go back to 19. That is the last time double-digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through 11 weeks. Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The point spread was less than a decade old in 1950. It was invented in like 1941 by a commodities trader in Chicago.

So the last time there was this kind of double-digit cover streak was 19. was 1950 and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. That's how unprecedented this is. People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay. I mean, there was just, what do you do? Exactly. And wooden nickels, you know? Chad. So they're going to be on this. So, but the point is, the wise guys are going to be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend. Same thing with the Titans, by the way. They don't love it, But they're going to bet against how bad the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating the Cowboys in prime time.

They haven't been impressed. We see Jay Stroud this year. They do like the Titans' defense. Talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves in the foot every week. So if they can get one of these breaks, that's the difference in a game where the number is more than a touchdown. Chad Millman. Good to see anybody.

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