The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 7!

Episode Date: October 18, 2024

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 7 of the NFL! 4:30 - Jaguar...s vs. Pats 7:15 - Vikings vs. Lions 10:15 - Rams vs. Raiders 12:15 - Seahawks vs. Falcons 14:20 - Jets vs. Steelers 16:45 - Bucs vs. Ravens 25:45 - Texans vs. Packers 27:15 - Chiefs vs. 49ers 28:30 - Browns vs. Bengals (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.
Starting point is 00:00:42 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.
Starting point is 00:01:38 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.
Starting point is 00:01:55 I don't think there's a more important year for black. people. Listen to look back at it on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.
Starting point is 00:02:12 You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:02:41 The volume. The roller coaster of an NFL season is moving right along, and it promises to be a month full of tricks, treats, and of course touchdowns. And draft king's sports book an official sports betting partner of the NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns. running it in from the one or an 80-yard bomb, we don't care how they score them. We want to bet them.
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Starting point is 00:03:52 Void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire. 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms or responsible gaming resources, see dkng.com slash FT Ball. All right, I predicted last week the league would have a separation. Best quarterbacks would win, week six going forward in most cases,
Starting point is 00:04:14 and the best quarterbacks last week went 14 and 0. I went three and one on my picks. I had the Jets with the points, but the bill's winning. I just needed the Jets to make an occasional field goal. Is that too much to ask? the Action Network CCO, Chad Milman, my friend, all odds provided by Draft Kings. Yeah, I always feel like defensive players get hurt statistically more often than offensive players.
Starting point is 00:04:39 That's where more of the violence is. Defenses get weaker over time. Quarterbacks pull away from the league. And once a guy, I think this is the second strongest week I think I've seen so far this year. So I'm excited about this. I think there's clear distinction in some of these games. And as you know, I don't have to like a team to like them for a week. I don't like the Jaguars, but I think the staff is fighting for its life.
Starting point is 00:05:04 It's also number five. You know I'm into number five. I'm sorry. I know seven's the lucky number. Five is mine. A team that regularly plays in London, a New England team that's limited. And actually, Trevor Lawrence has not played poorly the last couple of weeks. If it's five, I take the favorite last week, four and five.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Packers was my favorite bet. The game was over eight minutes in. Probably not sharp, but I love it, sharp or square. I feel like you're playing some kind of game of numerology and astrology and like, I don't like bad quarterbacks. I like good quarterbacks. I like the number five. I don't like the number seven. When the Zodiac sign says Mercury is in retrograde, I'm definitely going with the team from Jacksonville if they're playing in line. London. Yes. This actually is the sharp side. And it's because some of what you said, but it's also the Jags have been in London, favorites historically. Yeah. 35 and 10 in London. I mean, just winning outright, 35 and 10 in London. Something like 30 and 15 against the spread. It's like it's the right side. It's the nominally best. better team in a more desperate situation.
Starting point is 00:06:29 So, yes. I mean, most wise guys are like, I'm not really planning on having to watch in this game. I'm going to sleep in. But if they're going to bet, they're going to bet the Jaguars. You just mentioned the Jets, and it made me think of a funny story because that game was so disgusting. The night before the game, if you were betting the Giants at plus three and a half, was also terrible because they were winning.
Starting point is 00:06:51 They had won that game. Like, they were the better team. They had stymied Joe Burrow. they missed field goals. At the end of the game, it was clear they were going to lose because something funky was going to happen. The Bengals weren't just going to lay down at 10-7. They were going to do something that sort of knee-capped the Giants. I'm watching this game, and I feel like you'll appreciate this.
Starting point is 00:07:11 It's 11 o'clock at night. I'm watching the game in bed. My wife is semi-sleeping next to me, and she says something to me. And I'm like, I can't understand what you're saying. What are you saying? And she starts talking to me about something that, like, has nothing to do. with anything that is a total non sequitur to the day, the weekend, everything. And I go, can we just not talk about this right now? Like, we don't need to have this conversation this
Starting point is 00:07:36 second. She goes, that's fine. I understand. My feeling right now is you're probably going to lose this game and you're going to wake up in the morning and people are on Twitter. I'm just going to tell you you're stupid. And then she rolled over and she went back to bed. That's what they do, by the way. I know. I felt like you would appreciate every single element to that. So that was one of my Blazing Five picks. And for the first or second time in my career,
Starting point is 00:08:03 I pulled it off the Blazing Five when Malik Neighbors was not available. Yeah. I pulled it out. I almost inserted the Bears. My staff knew I loved that game I didn't, so I finished three and one. Here's my favorite pick of the week. And again, I have a rule. When a good team plays a perfect game, and it's the game of the week, and it's flawless.
Starting point is 00:08:25 pro or college. You don't duplicate that. We've seen that multiple times this year. Minnesota, off a buy, Detroit off the perfect football game. No thank you. I'll lay the points. Vikings now minus one and a half, sharper square. So it's square. What's really interesting here is, and you know, me and my co-host Simon Hunter talked about this on the favorites. He's a professional better. And a lot of times what professional betters do, they will manipulate. the market. So this game was at Minnesota minus one, minus one and a half early in the week. It went up to two. It went up to two and a half. And then as soon as it got to two and a half, the professional betters started betting Detroit again. It went back down to two. It went back down to one and a half. So there's
Starting point is 00:09:15 a philosophy, there's a theory right now that the professional betters early in the week were betting small amounts of money to bet this game up a little bit so they could come in later in the week when the books take bigger dollar amounts and bet the Detroit Lions much, much heavier, right? The Lions, to me, are the right side. I think there's a difference between teams that are playing perfect games and teams that are fundamentally as close to perfect as you can get. And I like to bet looking inside out. I like to bet offensive line first. And the offensive line for the Detroit Lions is just dominant. They are. And I think the past few weeks, and we talked about this last week with the lions and the cowboys,
Starting point is 00:09:56 they have figured out how to play physical, violent football. They've gotten out of the way of sort of trying to figure out, is Jared Goff going to win us the game? No, the offensive line is going to win us the game. Running the ball is going to win us the game. Jared Goff will then perform off of those situations that we have set up for him. So offensively, I think this is a much better team.
Starting point is 00:10:16 And I do think Jared Goff and Ben Johnson will know how to scheme against Brian Flores, defense has been great and the offensive line will protect against the pass rush. The floors has been great at generating. The worst unit on this field is going to be the Vikings' offense. So if there is any diminished performance from the Lions because of Aidan Hutchinson, I do think it's somewhat mitigated by the fact they're not playing a lights out offense. And we're all looking to sell the Vikings. We're trying to figure it out, right? When are we going to sell the Vikings? A lot of wise guys think this is the week.
Starting point is 00:10:52 Okay, I, on Monday on the herd, on FS1 and Iheart Radio, I said, I'm taking the Rams at five. The line will move up dramatically. It's the, it's the rare mistake by Vegas. McVeigh, Stafford off a buy. They're getting healthier. The Raiders made a true trade for getting rid of Devante Adams, so it makes it even tastier. But I think Devonte Adams leaving sends a real message. The Max Crosby rumors don't help.
Starting point is 00:11:20 They're saying he won't be traded. It's not a great locker room right now. And the Raiders are not a team that needs to win because they're not going to. It's a distracted team with bad mojo. The Rams now need to go on a street. They're healthier, better coach, better quarterback. In fact, it's the biggest coach quarterback mismatch on the board this week. I have it at minus five sharper square.
Starting point is 00:11:44 If you have it at five, that is incredible and it's sharp, and you should hold on to that. Like it's a cuddly teddy bear because that line does not exist. Like it's at six and a half in most places. So if you can get a five or if you have a five, if you can book a five, take the five. At six and a half, it's not a number that I would want to really lean into for the Rams. The truth is if at six and a half I might even lean raiders. I agree with you about Stafford and McVeigh, nobody really trusts Aidan O'Connell. But the line bumped up for two reasons.
Starting point is 00:12:22 One expectation that Cooper Cup might come back. They did think he could come back in week seven. And because the Raiders got blown out by the Steelers. But if you look at that box score, that game was close. It was 7.6 at the end of the first half. It was 12-7 when and then three consecutive series, fluky things happened to give the Steelers a huge lead. And even then, the Raiders had opportunities to come back.
Starting point is 00:12:49 they were called back for penalties. They fumbled on the one-yard line after they had scored a touchdown that was called back. So the game was closer than the score appears, so I think six and a half is too much. Seattle plus a field goal at Atlanta is interesting. The Seahawks are getting healthy. I know you have a luck rating, and the Saints were called unlucky. I do think Atlanta's had a few breaks go their way, and they're a tad overvalued. I think they win their division.
Starting point is 00:13:17 But I actually think even the game against Tampa Bay that they won an overtime, I kind of felt most of the game Tampa was better and has a higher ceiling. I kind of like Seattle in this spot. They've been a funky mess defensively, and you think they're not very good. No, they're finally getting their best defenders back. And Gino Smith, Atlanta has no pass rush. They have really good receivers. I like Seattle in the points, Sharper Square.
Starting point is 00:13:46 ish at two and a half the wise guys are playing the falcons at three they might play seattle they won't play atlanta they were kind of hoping it would get the three and a half so they could play atlanta if they like seattle it's because of everything you just said they're getting a little bit healthier atlanta can't generate a pass rush um they are that the falcons could just as easily be oh and six right now right and we talked about this last week, the games they have won, three games that they won, they had a 5% chance to win those games, sometimes with less than 30 seconds left, and they still won those games. So there has been a lot of sort of luck involved in their season so far. So that is due. They are due
Starting point is 00:14:35 for regression there. Even last week against the Panthers, like until Andy Dalton threw that pick into his territory, and then the Falcons went on an 84-yard drive, the Panthers were running all over them, and they had a chance to be very close in that game if not win it out right. So it's a, it's a, this is a number play entirely. Two and a half Atlanta, three or more, Seattle. Okay. One of my favorite bets of the week, and it was before Devontey Adams, I'll take the Jets minus one and a half. The Steelers are a mess. They don't even know who their quarterback is. I think the Jets were an excellent two and four team. If they could kick field goals, think about this. If it wasn't for Taylor Rap,
Starting point is 00:15:15 making two remarkable plays at safety, jarring the ball loose. And if it wasn't for Terran Johnson making, honestly, an Ed Reed-level interception, like one of the great plays of the year, Jets win that game. Aaron played well. They ran the ball. They had 72% motion, 25% would Nat-Hack at the week before. I think the Jets are a really, really undervalued 2-14. They're high-profile.
Starting point is 00:15:43 The game is stand-alone. you think they're no good. They really should have beaten the bills. Sharp or square? Totally sharp. They like it for everything you just said. The reason they really like it is because the indications are Russell Wilson
Starting point is 00:15:58 will be the starting quarterback. And you can't find anybody who really understands the logic in that call unless it's just Mike Tomlin living up to a promise that he gave to Russell Wilson that he would be a starting quarterback. He really shouldn't be. And now you're getting,
Starting point is 00:16:14 Russell Wilson at a time where they've already lost their right guard, James Daniels, who was graded as the best guard in the NFL before his Achilles was injured. And then last week they lost Zach Frazier, who was greater as the fourth best center, according to pro football focus in the NFL, which is one of the reasons why their running game had been so powerful and they could get away with Justin Fields not being very good. So now you're getting rid of two of the best offensive linemen in the NFL that is the strength of your team and you're putting in a quarterback who's not, nearly as mobile, yet he's going to have more pressure because the strength of the Jets' defense
Starting point is 00:16:49 is the interior of their defensive line. So forget about Aaron Rogers. Forget about Devante Adams. The reason why professional betters are leaning the Jets is because of those interior factors. And again, those are the things that don't get as discussed in sort of the larger platforms, but that's what the betters are looking at. It's what's happening at the center of the Steelers line and who the quarterback is going to be much more than Devante Adams. And you've seen this number go up, even though the majority of the bets have actually come in on the Steelers, but the money, the professionals, have come in on the Jets. So I never bet against Lamar Jackson in the NFC, but at three and a half points, I do like Tampa at home. I think Tampa may be the most underrated
Starting point is 00:17:35 team in the league. I mean, Baker Mayfield, he'll give you a little wiggle, 14 of his 15 touchdowns from the pocket. He and Chris Godwin are humming. They have a three-pronged run game. Tucker, Bucking, White, like three legitimate running backs. And that is a team that even in games they've lost,
Starting point is 00:17:59 you look up and think, oh, this is probably the better team. If I get the hook, I'm taking Tampa here. Also, Ravens have been in back-to-back, very emotional games. I think, you know, They always beat the NFC, but sharp or square, I'd go the hook in Tampa.
Starting point is 00:18:17 100% sharp. And this line opened at four and a half. What's really interesting is you talked about sort of the performance of the public last week by saying betting on the better quarterback, right? Last week, the public went 10, 3, and 1. The public in the five weeks prior had had the worst start to the season it had ever had. And just for clarity, when I talk about the public, I mean, amateur better. who tend to bet favorites and tend to bet the favorites to cover, right?
Starting point is 00:18:48 So you're talking about teams like the Ravens or the Chiefs or, you know, in this case, last week the Lions. Normally, the public does not win. So the public is all over the Ravens this week. And when that happens, bookmakers, when the public really cashes in, bookmakers know amateur betters are fat and happy. They're going to take the money they won the week before. They're going to go to the sports book.
Starting point is 00:19:12 They're going to bet the favorites again because, hey, I just won, how hard can this be? I just won betting the Ravens to win by a touchdown against the commanders. And they did it. So now that they're going to come back. And you can see, like, the Bucks game, it opened at four and a half. It immediately got that down to three and a half. That's because the wise guys came in on the box and they still like the Bucks. Baker's the key here.
Starting point is 00:19:35 What Baker can do throwing across the middle to Godwin and Mike Evans, hopefully, because he did have a little bit of a soft tissue injury. And so there is some concern he might not play. But assuming he will, what Baker can do across the field, middle of the field against a coverage unit in the Ravens that is bottom third in the league and a past defense that is giving up the second most passing yards per game in the NFL. The only team worst is the Jaguars.
Starting point is 00:20:04 This is a recipe for Baker to keep this game close. Or, Colin, it's a recipe for Baker to break our hurt with interception when the team is down by 3. 10, and we need him to score a touchdown to cover the back door. Yeah, he's done both. Let's talk about something really, really important. If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan to America's largest injury law firm, and they are there for you. Over 100 offices nationwide. Think about that. More than 1,000 lawyers with over 20 billion, that's a B, 20 billion dollars recovered for over 500,000 clients. Things happen in life unexpectedly.
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Starting point is 00:21:00 com slash colon. Or dial pound law from your cell phone. Pretty easy. That's for the people.com slash Colin or pound law, pound 529 from your cell. Morgan and Morgan has. a proven track record of fighting for you to get a full and fair compensation if there's an unexpected accident in your life. This is a paid advertising. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's
Starting point is 00:21:31 unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:21:53 A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,
Starting point is 00:22:04 or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
Starting point is 00:22:23 One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me,
Starting point is 00:22:41 or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Starting point is 00:23:00 Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s.
Starting point is 00:23:22 To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?
Starting point is 00:23:45 Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far, far. away, such as the biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality
Starting point is 00:24:16 and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, learn the hard way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,
Starting point is 00:24:45 we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross. Because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Starting point is 00:25:06 Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, I Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. There's always a game I want your, I feel mildly interested, but I want your conviction and your insight.
Starting point is 00:25:40 The only time the Texans have really played awful this year was when they traveled north and faced Minnesota, and it was a lot of Brian Flores and C.J. Stroud acknowledging, I don't even know what I saw. I like Green Bay. I've never loved their defense. Texans getting three. I've got Joe Mixing back, a run component. I want your opinion on this. It's telling me to bet Texans, but I think Jordan Love is such a special player, but D'Amico Ryans could do a Brian Flores to Jordan, love like Flores did to C.J. Stroud. Tell me that Texans is the right side. It's not. This is one of those number plays. There's plenty of places where you can get the Packers at minus two and a half. And the Wise guys are betting the Packers at two and a half. And what really tells you the wise guys are betting the Packers at two and a half is the way the money is split. Again, public is all over the Texas. You can see that the money is coming in. on the Packers. And that's what's fascinating here. So it's a really hard game. And there's been a huge debate in the professional betting community about which is the right side. But if you're
Starting point is 00:26:50 getting the Packers at two and a half, people want to make that bet. The professionals want to make that bet. What's the game I'm missing? It's usually egregiously uncomfortable to watch. It's a corner of a corner TV game. What is it? Well, I'm a little surprised we didn't talk about the Chiefs and the Niners. Well, I will not bet against Andy Reed off a buy. My heart tells me the Niners are eventually going to win one of these games. Brock Purdy is actually today playing better than Mahomes. So my gut is the Niners are the side. But betting against Andy Reid off a buy is like these days betting against Otani with men on base,
Starting point is 00:27:31 I'm not interested. Yeah, not only that, betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. I mean, he's like 10 and 3 or something. It's ridiculous. So I'm glad, I'm glad because the answer would be there is no answer. And it's what you just said. It's a heart and a head game. In your head, it's like the Super Bowl last year. In your head, the Niners have the better roster. The Niners should win this game outright. But Patrick Mahomes, like, you make your own luck, right? Even this year, they've been lucky in so many spots. And you have to say to yourself, of course this is going to end. It can't continue to be this way. But it's Patrick Mahomes who finds a way to get out of the pocket, find Travis Kelsey in his zone, and Travis Kelsey hasn't caught two passes the entire game.
Starting point is 00:28:19 All of a sudden, the last drive, they need a field goal. They're driving down the field. They get the field goal. Quirky things happen. So it's a really hard game. Like people don't want to really invest in this game. I mean, I almost like, I'm sick to my stomach telling you this, but the wise guys are all over the Browns.
Starting point is 00:28:38 at now plus five and a half against the Bengals. Oh, I know, I know. Oh, gross. I mean, they just traded Amari Cooper. Well, look, so what happened was this line was at five and a half, and the wise guys were already trending towards the Browns. Now, this is at Cleveland, getting five and a half against Cincinnati and Burrell. Yes.
Starting point is 00:29:04 And so when Mari Cooper was traded Tuesday afternoon, this line immediately shot up to six and a half. Do you know who's not worth a point against the point spread? Amari Cooper. Do you know who else isn't worth a point against the point spread? Aidan Hutchinson. There is nobody in the NFL who is worth a point against this point spread unless it's a quarterback.
Starting point is 00:29:29 Anyone else is a half a point. That's it. Amari Cooper, the Browns should get points back for trading Amari Cooper. That's how the wise guys look at this. So they bought the Browns at six and a half. They bought the Browns again at six. It's back down to five and a half. There's a lot of stuff that they like about betting the Browns.
Starting point is 00:29:51 The Browns have not had an offensive line that was healthy this entire year. This weekend, they should be getting Jack Conklin back. That's huge for their offensive line. Nick Chubb should be back. I'm not saying Nick Chubb makes them a more. much more superior team, but it does give them an opportunity to start playing a little bit more like Kevin Stefanski wants to play these games and take the ball out of Deshawn Watson's hands. At the very least, maybe Deshaun Watson won't be staring at the pass rush because he won't be
Starting point is 00:30:21 so afraid because Jack Conklin is playing again. So I do like that that is happening. There's some good health things on the offensive side of the ball. And their defense is getting healthier too. And you got a top five pass rush defense. You got Miles Garrett in a divisional game. in this situation with the Bengals team that still isn't that good, they shouldn't be a five and a half point favorite.
Starting point is 00:30:45 It's terrible. You don't want to bet the bad quarterback against one of the best quarterbacks. I'm not asking you to do it. I'm just telling you what the professionals are doing. So are you saying the wise guys like Kansas City plus one and a half against San Francisco? Completely split. It is like you have the guys who are just like you. who refused to bet against Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:31:10 In fact, they would rather take their shot and bet on Patrick Mahomes. They don't want to be watching the end of the game and seeing Patrick Mahomes have the ball and know they should have bet on him and have not bet on him. But what's been interesting is the chiefs are a very public road underdog. That is not a great situation to be on the side of
Starting point is 00:31:30 if you're a professional, if you're a better, right? You want to be against the public in most situations. This number has been kind of staying at one and a half, which tells you that the wise guys have been coming in on the Niners. So if they're closing their eyes, looking at rosters, looking at data, they're betting the Niners. If they're eyes wide open, seeing who's on the field, they're betting the Chiefs. Chad Millman, Sharper Square, CCO Action Network,
Starting point is 00:32:02 all odds provided by Draft Kings. As always, my friend, thank you. Great to see you, buddy. The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends.
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Starting point is 00:33:17 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wampas on the Ice Planet Hot, or the practicality and,
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Starting point is 00:33:57 or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast.
Starting point is 00:34:24 From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year.
Starting point is 00:34:41 It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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