The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Sharp or Square - Betting The AFC + NFC Championship Games! Best Prop Bets, Daniels Set To Be The “Mahomes” Of The NFC?

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the AFC and NFC Championship games, plus they chop up some of the top stories from around the league.  3:00 - The “Chiefs get all the calls” theory 6:45 - Commanders vs. Eagles 10:15 - Favorite Commanders/Eagles Prop Bet 10:45 - Jayden Daniels poised to dominate NFC? 17:00 - Bills vs. Chiefs 27:30 - Lower TV ratings for national championship 35:30 - Jags firing Trent Balke  Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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all odds provided by drafting so i had a rare i don't think i had an undefeated week this year three and o last week and um i think it's actually easier in the playoffs i've had back-to-back week because the quarterbacks are all, you know, it's sudden death. It's the best quarterbacks. You know, it's, I want to start with this before we start with anything. You know, there's this sense that, you know, Kansas City, Jason McIntyre's on this thing about the calls going a certain way. And I always point back, Kansas City's gotten the benefit of the calls. Well, my argument is we all know coaching matters more in football than managing in baseball or coaching in basketball. all. We know coaching college or pro. We've seen Jim Harbaugh take over the worst defense, make it the best. Coaching matters in football more than other sports. You have like a phone book that offensive players have to memorize.

And system, scheme, culture building. And I remember when I lived in Connecticut watching all the Patriot games. And I can remember watching for years and it just popping into my head when they were playing a team and a team fumbled. I'm like, God, I don't think the Patriots have fumbled since Thanksgiving. And you went back and looked, and they literally were the team in the league that didn't fumble. And I'd ask Patriot players about this. They're like, oh, yeah, Bill would not let you stretch for extra yards. That was a fine. That was a suspension.

You could only do it if it was fourth down in the end. Otherwise, you were not allowed to stretch. And I look at the chiefs, and I say to myself, really good coaches are really good teachers. And you can teach your way out of penalties with good communication. thorough repetition. Damien Woody always told me Patriot practice was different than every other practice,

his Detroit, his jet practices. So what your take on that the chiefs get all the calls because if you go back and look at the penalties during the New England era, they were less penalized as well. I think it's bullshit. I think it's a media constructed argument

because people are looking for reasons as to why the Chiefs keep winning other than they have a generationally great quarterback, a generationally, if not historically great coach. Our mutual friend, Ryan Rosillo, had a great stat on his podcast the other day. The past two years, Kansas City opponents have been flagged for 48 penalties in the fourth quarter in OT of one score games. Colin, how many have the Chiefs had in the same period? 12.

47. So let's knock it off. Okay? What you have in the Chiefs are a coach who has found the perfect cheat code for his scheme. He's got a guy who is ultra competitive, who can make a kid. make magical plays, who, by the way, as Tom Brady pointed out on your show, having to defend Patrick Mahomes for four downs in the playoffs is just so freaking hard. You don't get to seven conference championship games because people are calling penalties against the opponents more

often. Ask Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson has two MVPs. He might get a third. He should get a third. How many AFC title games has he played in? How many Super Bowls does he played in? He is as brilliant an athlete and as brilliant a quarterback as there is in the NFL. He's not getting there. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs do something different. And I think it's in the head of every single team they play. Well, let's start off with the commanders and the Eagles.

I'm going to take Philadelphia minus six. I'm also going to take the over. I do think they've played twice. Philadelphia should have won twice, but Jalen got hurt. Kenny Pickett came in. So I think the number I look at over two games is average yards per carry, and it's five and a half yards for Philadelphia. Well, that's just a physical mismatch. The O line for Philadelphia is almost better to a man than the D line for Washington.

That's not going to change. That's not scheme. The guards for Philadelphia are like six, seven and a half. It's like the biggest guards in league history. There are four of their offensive linemen are like arguably the best in the NFL at their position. So they will run the ball and they will move the ball. But I do think the commanders will have to score and know it going in. So they'll take chances.

They'll do some four down stuff. So my take is it's a fairly high scoring game, which makes me more comfortable laying the six with Philadelphia, sharper square. So it was sharp at four and a half. It's gotten to six. It actually got up to six and a half. And wise guys have been buying back. And in a lot of the conversations I've had this week, and Simon Hunter and I talked about this on The Favorites Today,

when we sort of bring in the feedback from professional betters, they were like in Washington. And it honestly doesn't make sense to me or to Simon, and apparently to you either. Last week, people were coming in and they were hammering the Rams. I loved the Eagles all week. And if not for Jake Elliott missing a couple extra points, that game is not a push. It's a cover for the Eagles.

Same thing this week. I don't get it. I feel like there's so much recency bias in relation to Jaden Daniels. And both of these games, weirdly, there is so much public support for the road underdogs against the higher seeds because of the status of the quarterbacks and the seasons they're having. Josh Allen is having a better year than Patrick Mahomes. Jane Daniels having a better year than Jalen Hertz. But people are forgetting that this Eagles team is not built around Jalen Hertz, right?

It's built around Sequin Barclay. And one of the things that I tried to unpack this week when I was thinking about this game is the Eagles win so often with explosive plays. We saw it this past weekend. two huge runs from Barclay, a great run from Hertz. That's how they're scoring touchdowns, right? Earlier in the season in November, in Philadelphia, against the commanders, the Eagles were losing most of that game.

I was at that game. They won that game because Stapwin-Bardley had two long touchdown runs. So you think about explosive play as well. Is that random? Can you predict it? I think it's more random when it's quarterbacks throwing long touchdown passes where the circumstances have to be perfect. It's less random when it's your run.

running back, who has an offensive line that is as dominant as you just talked about, who's, by the way, his rushing prop is north of 130 yards, which Draft Kings has announced, is the highest total they've ever had for a rushing prop in the years that they've been doing business. So I'm with you, man. I like the Eagles. I think it's the right spot. I think they're the better team. I tend to favor the dominant physical team. So, yeah. Is there a prop you could give our audience that you like? I like the over in this game, but a prop you like. Zach Gertz over three and a half receptions.

I think that the Eagles defensively on the edges at cornerback. Quinn Rion Mitchell is supposed to play. We already know about Cooper DeGine in the slot. Darius Slay, obviously, on the other side. That's where Jaden Daniels, who was already predisposed to wanting to go to Zach Hertz, if Terry McLaurin isn't available, isn't open. I think that that's where the offensive opportunities are going to be. So Zach, it's over three and a half.

You know, it's interesting. I was talking on the show today. Ten years ago, Peyton Manning, Big Ben, and Brady were these iconic legends past their prime. In fact, Peyton was in Denver. But I remember thinking at the time, Jesus, what is the league going to do? What is the league going to do? And now we've got Lamar, Mahomes, Allen, and throw in Burrow. Yeah.

And, but in the NFC, 10 quarterbacks in the last 10 Super Bowl appearances for NFC teams. It's a lot of rotational quarterbacks. That's why it almost feels like Jaden Daniels has a shot. Hertz would be the second time for him. So I do, I said this today is I watch Jaden Daniels and I feel like the NFC got their Mahomes, that everybody will, they'll be tailing Washington going forward. I don't think it's a particularly warm take. I feel like he is either Lamar or Mahomes,

but the NFC has had this sort of goff, an older Stafford, a prickly Aaron, Russell Wilson aging, Kyler Murray's talented, but there's just been a lot of these qualifiers, and they haven't had their no issues, low maintenance, high thrower, good mover. I think he's the Mahomes of the NFC.

What's really going to be interesting, I agree with everything you said, What's going to be interesting is next year. Next year, the commanders are already 16 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. That feels very aggressive. Weren't we saying the same things about C.J. Stroud exactly a year ago? And did C.J. Stroud not come back down to earth, that defenses not spend an offseason figuring out that he's not great against certain defenses, that it's going to

to be challenging for him to succeed at the level that he did in his rookie year. And he didn't. Not saying he's not great, not saying he's going to be great. But of all the great quarterbacks you just mentioned, when the season began, CJ Stroud was on that list. Now he's not. So next year, is there going to be an opportunity to fade the commanders? Like, in reality, the commanders should probably be seven, seven and a half point underdogs in this game. The Eagles are dominant physically on the defensive side of the ball and on the offensive side of the ball. The commanders are not going to have

their right guard, Sam Cosme, who's their best offensive lineman. The Eagles' best defensive lineman is Jalen Carter. And normally you're not going to worry about a right guard being out as being a challenge for your pass protection.

But when Jalen Carter is rushing up the middle, your right guard might be the guy who needs to grab a piece of them every once in a while, you're now not going to have a guy. And so all of a sudden, these things change. you're already getting the benefit, I think, of Jaden Daniels being someone who people believe is a cheat code,

and they're overvaluing that in the scope of the entire game. Yeah, I will say, though, that C.J. Stroud didn't have the mobility edge, which I've always thought, mobility's best for a quarterback in the first two years. Because as you're learning NFL coverages and waiting for the light to go on, you can just pick up first downs moving, whereas C.J. Stroud is going to pick up first downs, throwing. And so he is much more susceptible as coverages get more sophisticated.

You face better teams. He had injuries on the O line. They didn't have protection. I think running quarterbacks, Lamar, he never really dipped Mahomes, Allen. They just kept getting better. Goff was beholden to how good is O'Ley. line was. You know, bad, Whitworth good. Whitworth leaves not as good or around that time when

Whitworth was aging. And then he goes to Detroit, not good early. Line got better. He's better. So I think Jaden, I think C.J. Stroud's NFL comp was goff. And like Goff, he deteriorates with really bad line play significantly. Whereas I think Jaden is Lamar and Mahomes where it's just ascension because he moves the chains while he's figuring out defenses. And it takes about, even Mahomes said it was the beginning of year three when everything just sort of slowed down. So I don't think he's, I think we're really looking at something special here. I don't disagree. I think the guy's a brilliant player. And I think it's more evidence that you want to get quarterbacks who have a lot of experience playing in college, who've taken a lot of

snaps who played a lot of games. That's always been a threshold for GMs and coaches who are looking to draft quarterbacks. I remember when Philip Rivers came out, he had played so many games in college. People didn't really know who he was at NC State. I know I'm throwing a name out there from like 25 years ago, but I remember this so clearly I was at ESP in the magazine and we were doing a draft issue and it was the first time I ever heard a scout talk about the importance of seeing quarterbacks on tape with a lot of games as they get older. And we're seeing that with Jadian Daniels. Like his experience level keeps him from being really frightened in these experiences

because he's so much older than the average quarterback coming out. And he's had so many more snaps and he understands the rhythm of the game and understands the moment a little bit better. In addition to his unbelievable talent. But I can guarantee right now, we can set a number on it. The number of times we'll set it at seven and a half. At this time, next year, how many times over the course of Sharper Square have I said to you, well, commanders are overvalue here because Jaden Daniels is getting too much credit and too much attention.

I guarantee I'm going to say that on every other week basis to you on this show. Let's go AFC. I'm riding with the bills. I have for the last month. I feel they're the best team in football. The Rams had to play a perfect game at home to slip by in the Rams. I think we're a very good team at the end. I'll take the one and a half.

Again, I think there's going to be points scored. I think there's limitations on stopping Alan and Mahomes. I think you get into these games. Coaches are more willing Brady and Andy Reid are more willing to take risks. It's sudden death. You empty the playbook because you have two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl. also just empty the playbook. I take the over 47 and a half bills plus one and a half. I can absolutely see Kansas City winning. I think this is the best version of Buffalo for two reasons.

One, they do not turn it over. They're not heavily penalized. And you can't get to Josh Allen. They're the mature version, which Baltimore hasn't become yet with Lamar. They're still, like I said this before, Buffalo's always been a Ferrari with Josh Allen. They just no longer get speeding tickets. They don't make the mistakes. They don't get caught. Like they slow down. in front of the cops. So they don't, they have all the talent, but they don't have that sort of, and Baltimore is trying to work theirself out of this. That's sort of like, we can't slow down. We just, we go 100 miles an hour. So I think they've become, they become the chiefs. And I think eventually they're going to beat the chiefs, which they have in the regular season,

sharper square bills plus the points. Sharp-ish, it's been an interesting number. It opened at one and a half, and even though the majority of the money, which indicates professional betters like the bills, and the majority of the tickets, which also indicates the public likes the bills, it's kind of stuck at one and a half. In fact, there's been a little bit of sort of juice movement, meaning they're making it more expensive to bet the one and a half on the chiefs because they want you to take that one and a half because pretty soon they're going to go to two. I think that you're on the professional side, not in a dominant way. I'm going to play devil's advocate. Everything you're saying is right. Josh Allen gets out of the pocket. To me, he's as frightening

and frustrating as Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. And their running game this year has been so freaking good. They played the number one team in defensive rush success rate in the Broncos and crushed them on the ground. They played the number two team in defensive rush success rate in the Ravens and crushed them on the ground. The chiefs are not nearly as good at defending the run as either the Ravens or the Broncos and they're going to have to figure out how to manage Josh Allen when it's third and one or fourth in one who's clearly unstoppable, how they're going to have to manage James. Cook, all that is true, there is zero evidence, Colin, that Patrick Mahomes is going to lose this game. Zero.

Like, in November on, in games where the weather is 40 degrees or less, 23 and 2 in his career. The last loss was to Tom Brady in 2019. He's won 20 in a row. Andy Reid with Mahomes, with an extra day of rest, just one extra day of rest, which he has, 20 and 3, 14 and 1 at home. Like, it's just, why would I want to do this? I've been given every opportunity to bet the Chiefs as a short home dog. Patrick Mahomes, seven straight AFC title games. three Super Bowls in the past five years,

going for third in a row, he is going to challenge Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback who's ever played, and he might do it before he's 32 years old. Like, what am I doing here? Why would I bet against Patrick Mahomes? I had a buddy call me the other day and tell me, I'm all over the bills.

I'm like, why? And why would you do that with confidence? Like, you just can't. It's hard. I get it. I'm afraid of it. But there's no way I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes. There is no way. But yeah, I like the over too. NFL playoffs. We're talking about NFL playoffs. You bet we are. Get in on the action at Draft King's Sportsbook. An official sports betting partner of the NFL scoring touchdowns is a key to winning in the NFL playoffs and the key to you scoring big is betting on them at Draft Kings, the number one place to bet touchdowns.

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We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

And, well, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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And apparently sometimes in the media, I think media people like to be viewed as smart and they try to figure stuff out. I'm guilty of this. I'm always trying to figure out theories or why. And sometimes the answer is always the simple answer. So I saw a story this week. And it just made me laugh where the college

football game was down three million viewers. And everybody was flummoxed. And I'm like, guys, men like Trump. Statistically in this election, young men love Trump. Young men love football. Innauguration day was Monday. That's the day of the national championship. And so the number was down about three million viewers, especially when Notre Dame fell behind 31 to 7. That's the answer, right? Like, it wasn't that we hate Ohio State and Notre Dame, it was every four years an inauguration with a polarizing Trump, who, for the record, does very well in this election with young men. Yeah, I saw the numbers, too. It's so funny you say that because I saw the numbers this morning and I saw a story, just the headline, you know, down whatever percent. It was 10 percent

or whatever it was, right? 12 percent. And as soon as I clicked out and I'm like, someone's going to try to explain why this is. This isn't rocket science trying to find patterns when you do year-over-year comps. You can do year-over-comps, year-over-year comps with every podcast in the volume network. You can do it with your show. The circumstances are always different. We do this at action all the time, too. How come this Monday night game is down from the year before? Well, who was the matchup? Was it a game where you had, was it a night where you had two Monday night games being played instead of one. Because when you have two Monday night games, traffic sometimes dips a little bit because attention is diverted. And games start a little bit earlier.

So people aren't online as early. Like there's so many easy to unpack answers to so many of the questions that are asked in sports. It's phenomenal that we try to make it as complicated as we do. and to your point about politics mixing with sports and impacting sports, two years ago, 93 of the top 100 broadcasts in the United States were sports. This past year in 2024, 81 of the top 100. Do you know why? Because there were so many debates and so many political events that were leading the coverage, that we're getting so many more viewers.

So of course there's going to be changes on a year-to-year basis because of the overall world and what's happening, not because of anything about myopically what we think of Ohio State or Notre Dame. Well, I have, I worked in local TV for over a decade. And so I still, you know, I still have friends in local TV, not as many, many of retired or daughter things or moved on. But, you know, it's like you're going to notice over the next 10 years. there'll be a little bit of renaissance in local TV ratings. Why? Because of climate change. And whenever you have severe weather or disasters,

local reporters are better than national reporters. They've built trust for the audience and they know the terrain. A Dallas reporter, a Chicago, Minneapolis, Los Angeles, New York reporter, if something happened to the Brooklyn Bridge, forget CNN. I'm watching the local guys, right? So L.A. local news ratings went up 400% over the last two weeks. And I watched the coverage. It was significantly better than CNN. And it's not a political. It was significantly better than all national coverage because the local reporters, they all live in these towns and they just know the topography and the canyons and the history. And so, you know, it's, you're going to watch local TV ratings. And you can call it whatever you want, but we're just getting more severe weather. It snowed in Pensacola, a foot. Whatever.

L.A. had a blizzard two years ago. Whatever. So, yeah, I think most of the stuff is fairly explainable. So when local TV ratings have a renaissance here in the next decade, that's mostly what it's going to be. I love that you talk about the weather component of it, because those are the only people I remember growing up when I watched local TV. And even here in West Harford, where you're...

you used to live, like Stacey and I, my wife and I, we love the local weather guy. And I love the local weather guy because he knows our town and he knows all the towns around us. And he knows the difference between here we're in a valley, here you're a little bit on a hill. So it's going to be a little bit colder here in the morning. You might have a little more frost. I live by what this guy says. And I completely connect with what you're saying. What's actually frightening, I don't know if you saw it this week, but there is one.

broadcaster that owns a lot of local stations that is letting go of all their local weather people and having a singular sort of source of weather information and segments that is then being distributed out to the local channels. It's sort of like the single service provider within an organization, which is idiotic. That is the opposite of what I would do over the next 10 years. Get rid of of the local sports guys. Love them to death, but everybody's watching some other platform. I want massive weather people locally for the next decade. Whatever you want to call it, we're just getting more combustible weather, hot, cold, wind, rain, whatever. It makes no sense. I saw it. I'm like, the one thing people care about is weather. It's the

only thing people are checking for in the morning. Like, that is what can save local television. and you're going out there, you're firing all the weather people, it made zero sense to me. Zero. Sometimes I wish, sometimes I wish I was a billionaire, not because I'd buy a bunch of stuff because I've never had a second car. I'm not a boat guy. I'm not a jewelry guy or a watch guy. I'm not a collector.

I'm really not. I don't care. But there are things I would like things I would like to do in society that can't afford to do. I'll be honest with you. When Fox created a weather channel, I wish I could have been the CEO of Fox's Weather Channel. I would have loved that job. And if it paid what I make and I could still make my mortgage, I was, I've always wanted, like Byron Allen, the former comedian who became a wildly successful entrepreneur,

bought the Weather Channel. And I think it's the only time I've ever been jealous of another member of the American media was Byron Allen bought the Weather Channel. And I'm like, damn it. By the way, it might be Byron Allen who fired all the local weather people because you want all the weather to come from the Weather Channel. All I know, that is forget Oprah. That's the most successful local media person in the history of our business.

He's the one guy I'm jealous of. I'm just checking right now. Yeah, Allen Media Group replaces meteorologists, dozens of meteorologists with pre-recorded feeds. So, I don't know, I think we got to call Byron, and we got to tell him we think this is a bad idea. And we are very respected and admired members of the media. Do you have a take on the Jaguars firing Trent Balke, the GM, and Liam Cohen deciding to go back to the box as an assistant, a la. Johnson the year before, and them not being able to find someone to take that job. Plot twist, Buck's offensive coach, Liam Cohen, has now done a U-turn, is speaking with the

Jaguars in person for their head coaching job. So when you ask me, what do you make of Trent Volki, this, Tom Pelliserro reporting this, and Ian Rappaport, this is what I think of Trent Balke. Balke's there. I'm not interested. Bulkie fired. Let me turn around the U-Haul and head back to J-Ville. That just tells you that Trump Bulkie was the orange cone in the road.

He was the roadblock. But it also goes even to prove the point, coordinators and job applicants and potential head coaches are willing to be more selective, I think, than they ever have been before. And if they don't feel like they're being set up in the right circumstances, they're not jumping at a job. Yeah, Cohen's good. I like him. I like him.

Yeah, no, he's good. I mean, Baker leads the NFL and touchdown passes the last two seasons. I like Mike Evans. I don't like him that much. Also, Todd Bowles, just impressive. The fact that he had Canales turned Baker Mayfield around, Liam Cohn, turned Baker Mayfield around. He's going to have to go find him again, a new guy if Liam Cohn takes his job. but I'm starting to like Todd Bulls quite a bit as a head coach.

Yeah, his first year in New York, he almost didn't know where to stand. He was such a kind of gentle, low-key personality. He was, you know, in the city with Rex Ryan, it was like, where is he? And he spoke like an assistant or a coordinator. He just didn't want to be in front of a microphone. But I always thought he was thoughtful. I thought any time you heard him talk, you know, he came across as like, humble and focused and, yeah, and I also think the Internet doesn't allow this. People improve.

People get better. Yeah. They just, yeah, I mean, it's like, like Brandon Staley's not going to get a second chance, maybe as a coordinator, but not as head coach. But, you know, a lot of these guys, Rahim Morris, Todd Bowles, there's something there. There's a reason you hired him. Like, you know, it's almost like when you get a divorce in life. Well, there's a reason you were together for 12 years. I mean, there were some positives there. You produced good kids. You. kids, you know, your good co-parenting. There's no reason to hate each other. Like, it shit happens.

Like, you're in big cities. You have a bad stretch. Your quarterback gets hurt. You don't have a backup on the roster. I mean, Mike McDaniel from Miami, a year and a half ago, was the bell of the ball. And now we're all like, you know, he's kind of, it doesn't feel like he owns the room like Dan Campbell. I'm not sure if this works. It's the way it works in life.

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