The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 'Sharp or Square' Divisional Round Picks, 'Fake Q's, Real Answers" on McCarthy and Caleb Williams --> USC Latest
Episode Date: January 21, 2022Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" (3:00) on what the NFL ratings bonanza says about mixing sports and politics, why people need to stop complaining about Jeopardy champions crushing their oppo...nents, inside info on Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams possibly heading to USC, what Russell Westbrook getting benched says about the NBA, and the stat that defined Aaron Rodgers' rocky relationship with Mike McCarthy. Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Playoff Divisional Round picks are "sharp" or "square". Find out their picks for Bengals/Titans (14:00), 49ers/Packers (21:00), Rams/Buccaneers (22:00), and Bills/Chiefs (25:00). Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody, and welcome in. It's the Friday morning podcast. Chad Millman, sharp or square in 10 minutes.
But first, fake questions, real answers.
Stuff I want to talk about, but don't want to wait for you to ask me the question.
Dear Colin, NFL ratings keep going up.
NBA ratings keep plummeting.
What does this tell you?
Well, 45 million people watch the Niners and the Cowboys.
Michael Mulvahill works.
Great Twitter follow.
Works at Fox.
He tracks this sort of stuff.
Viewership for the Wild Card Round increased by 5.3 million viewers.
viewers over last year. That means the increase alone is more than what ABC CBS NBC averaged in all
their prime time this year in 2021. You know, part of it is the NFL is no longer talking about
politics. I read radio TV critics all the time. They do not have the same access I do to
data about what my viewers want. At both ESPN and Facebook,
Fox, we had data that said it turned off a lot of viewers when you combined sports and politics.
NFL last year, they've gotten out of the political business.
Ratings are up.
Look at the Grammys and Oscars.
Everybody just applauds the courage of the actors for talking about politics.
And only 10 million people watched the last Oscars.
Only 9 million last year watched the Grammys.
The NBA finals averaged only 9 million viewers a game.
Folks, the research is in.
I've worked at networks.
People don't want their person who pretends to be a lawyer talking politics at the Oscars.
Just act.
We have political pundits.
We have politicians.
There's enough of it on Twitter, social media.
Don't listen to your media critics.
When they talk about the courage of sportscasters, the courage of actors, the audience doesn't want you mixing politics incessantly with their movies and with their sports.
Nobody wants my politics and nobody wants Rachel Maddow's football picks.
Just the way it is.
Dear Colin, to see, there's more Twitter.
uproar about a Jeopardy champion crushing the competition and making the game, quote, unwatchable.
Yeah, actually, it's very watchable.
Jeopardy is currently the highest rated non-sports program on television because Amy Schneider
is crushing people.
I don't know who has convinced people that we love the underdog.
No, we don't.
We like the favorites.
We don't love the underdog.
The PGA had its greatest viewership when Tiger Woods was kicking everybody's butt.
The Warriors NBA Dynasty the last time the league was highly rated.
Mike Tyson fights.
Hmm, his pay-per-views in his prime were record-setting.
And Jeopardy?
Whenever they have a Ken Jennings, whenever they have an Amy Schneider, the ratings go up.
America is not a country that hates billionaires.
were fascinated by them.
It's why we watch documentaries about Mark Zuckerberg or Steve Jobs.
Jeopardy like other sports is totally fair.
The winner should be the best person.
You cannot legislate parody.
People are not interested in it.
And we are fascinated by geniuses and those who often pull away from us.
Dear Colin, we know you're America's number one USC insider.
What's the latest on Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams?
Well, maybe I'm not number one, but certainly a very close number two.
I have been told by someone that is in a close relationship with Caleb Williams and his father,
that USC leads and is likely to land him.
and it's quite possible
USC will get news
within the next 72 hours.
Now, USC just landed a transfer running back from Stanford.
Here's a little insight.
They're going to land another transfer running back
in the next few days.
How's that for scoops?
Dear Colin,
What does Russell Westbrook of the Lakers getting benched tell you about the NBA?
Well, the NBA has always been a players league and it's always been star driven.
And it's one of the strengths of the NBA and can be one of its weaknesses.
When the star is likable and dominating like LeBron and his prime or Michael Jordan or Shaq and Kobe, the ratings are strong.
After Jordan left, the league didn't really have an embraceable next star and the ratings dropped.
50%. Do you remember that?
I think the problem with a star-driven league and the NFL is not, though it has stars.
The problem with a star-driven league is you often become star-obsessed and talent obsessed.
And things like chemistry and coaching become less significant.
Have you ever noticed how many bad contracts there are in the NBA?
How many teams chase either over-the-hill wash talent or talent that really is indifferent about the sport?
The Ben Simmons contract, awful.
John Wall contract, awful.
Westbrook contract, awful.
Kevin Love contract, awful.
Name one terrible NFL contract.
One.
I can't.
I mean, Kirk Cousins make.
more than many of you would want to pay him, but what were the Vikings going to do at quarterback?
He makes in the 20 millions. There's now quarterbacks like Dak making in the 40 millions.
At this point, Kirk Cousins, if not a value player, is certainly worth his money.
The NFL has a much easier time moving off stars. I'll give you an example, Cam Newton.
Cam Newton's a declining star. He gets one offer from New England. It's not a very good one.
After a year they bail on him, he gets a cup of coffee with Carolina, and it's mostly over.
Tim Tebow won seven straight games and a playoff game.
Denver replaced him with Peyton Manning.
He got one more shot with the Jets.
They couldn't figure out a way to play him.
It was mostly over.
In the NBA, Frank Vogel of the Lakers, the coach, had to get permission to bench Russell Westbrook.
Permission.
It just doesn't work that way in the NFL.
Dear Colin, what did you make a Mike McCarthy's press conference where he said, and I quote,
I know how to win? Well, the thing about resumes in the NFL is you have to be very careful.
He does have a Super Bowl win and seven division titles, and he's won more games percentage-wise,
61% than Bill Parcells. But sometimes I think we forget how bad McCarthy was at the end in Green Bay.
Do you remember 2018, McCarthy's final year with the Packers?
Aaron Riders led the NFL in a fascinating stat, throwaways.
It's a stat that tracks when an offensive player, a quarterback, just throws the ball away because he has no good options.
Aaron's one of the most nimble quarterbacks athletically.
He's got one of the best arms.
He rarely gets into a desperate place.
Yet in 2018, Aaron had 47 throwaways.
That is still the most.
throwaways in a season since they started keeping track of the stat.
It was an indication of how little respect Aaron Rogers had for Mike McCarthy.
He was literally saying, Mike McCarthy just gave me a play that is so poor, I'm not even going
to attempt a pass.
Think about that.
That stat, we forget, because Aaron.
been so good and so effortless for the last three years with Matt LaFleur.
We forget how ugly it got in his last year with the coach.
All right.
Chad Millman Sharper Square.
He's the chief content officer of the Action Network.
All these current odds are fan dual odds, by the way.
Okay.
So last week, I like Cincinnati as a favorite and the Rams is a favorite.
And then I like dogs and I got my arse kick.
So I was two and two overall.
I was four and oh on outcomes.
So this week, I like all the favorites.
That almost never happens with me.
So I'm very uncomfortable with that.
But I do get to a point there's only one of them that makes me really uncomfortable.
And let's start with that.
So at three and a half, it's telling me to bet the Bengals.
And they clearly have the better quarterback.
but I think we have a mismatch problem.
I think Tennessee's defensive front is going to manhandle the Bengals' offensive line,
which is the worst remaining in the playoffs.
So the number is telling me to take the better quarterback and the Bengals.
It's not a devastating home field advantage for the Titans.
That's what the number is telling me.
But I like the Titans to win and I think they'll ugly it up.
But I would just take the Bengals in this moment,
because I think they have now, they have met a personnel mismatch.
And I think it's going to decide the game.
So I'm going to take the Bengals plus three and a half, but I think they're going to lose.
I would always rather take the team I want.
Generally, I pick the winner of the game.
I don't like taking a team and then having them lose close.
I'd rather just, if I like a team, I like a team.
but I'm going to take the Bengals. They're going to lose, but I'll take the points.
That was a sloppy long way of talking about it, Sharper Square.
It's like you're twisting yourself into a pretzel to find a reason to bet the bangles.
And it's a terrible idea. The Titans are the wise guy sat here. Don't be fooled by the hook.
You know, that's what we call it when a game is on the half point. Don't be fooled by the three and a half.
that is a lure from the bookmakers to get the squares to come in at bet Cincinnati.
The Titans are the right side in this game.
Oh, it makes me so happy.
So happy.
Because I think they're the better team.
Yeah.
If this game was at four, the wise guys would still be betting on the Titans.
It's the first time the Titans have all 22 of their starters healthy.
They used the most players in NFL history this year.
91 players.
We have yet to see this team at full strength, and they're the number one seed.
Credit to Mike Vrable.
And we've talked about this.
We've talked about this on the favorites on the podcast.
Like Mike Vrable, he should be the odds-on favorite to be coach of the year.
91 players used.
He ended up with the number one seed in the AFC, a league, a conference that includes the chiefs and the bills and the Patriots.
and this guy still had the number one seed.
When he has more than nine days to prepare,
he's 8 and no against the spread.
He's just a really, really good coach.
So now you've got a D-line for the Bengals
that has a lot of, that is banged up, right?
Larry Ogadjobie, he's out.
Trey Hendrickson is playing,
but he's coming off a concussion.
You're getting Derek Henry back and fresh.
If you've seen the video of him,
He is beating the crap out of people that are holding the pads on his own team.
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You've got Julio Jones, who will probably play 85% of the...
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A win is a win.
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Snaps on offense.
When those three guys are on the field, they're averaging seven yards per play.
Okay.
So now you've got a team at full strength that was number one in the conference.
a competitive conference when they weren't at full strength.
There's a little bit too much euphoria around this Bengals team.
Just take the Titans and lay the points.
I'm glad because I think they're the better team.
That makes me so happy.
So I'll do that.
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year. Rested. I like Green Bay minus five and a half or the sharper square. So this is this is a hard game.
It's a really hard game. And there is no real consensus on this. The wise guys desperately want
to bet the Niners at plus six. And they generally are. But you're not going to find anyone who is sort of saying,
oh yeah, this is why, right?
The wise guys want to bet him because it's a big number for a Kyle Shanahan team
that has played well against the Packers before.
The health of Jimmy G here is a real concern.
And not just his hand, but did he injure his throwing shoulder?
You've got below zero temperatures.
Can you expect the Packers to just dare Jimmy G to throw the ball
and then sort of try to eliminate what makes Kyle Shannon so great?
as a schemer, and I mean that in a good way, and as a play caller, which is taking advantage
of what his offensive line and sort of that zone blocking in the running game can do.
So the Niners are the right side because it's a big number for a really good team.
You're probably going to get Bosa back.
Fred Warner is definitely going to be back.
But it's not one that makes anyone comfortable.
So your equivocation here, which is what I'm doing, is more.
It's like it's more fair.
All right.
My second favorite pick of the weekend, because my favorite is the final game, Bill's Chiefs.
I'll get to that in a second.
My second favorite bet of the week is bucks minus three.
So everything went perfect against Arizona.
Matt Stafford only had to throw 17 times.
They dominate the line of scrimmage.
Arizona doubled Cooper Cup.
They went to Higgsbe.
They went to Van Jefferson.
They went to the run game.
They went to OBJ.
They were at home.
It was very comfortable.
It's a declining Arizona defense.
over the last month and Kyler Murray played poorly.
It just worked out perfectly.
Although I do worry about the health of the Buccaneers O line,
they won't be able to run.
You're asking Matt Stafford to go on the road and throw 40 times.
I don't love it.
Now, I will say this.
Rams are pretty healthy.
Right now they're probably healthier than Tampa.
But I feel pretty strongly about,
the multiple ways the Bucks can win.
I think they're going to get some running back,
help back.
Leonard Frenette may play.
I'm going to take the Bucks minus three,
sharp or square.
In a surprise,
it's pretty sharp.
We talked about this on the Favorites podcast as well.
I don't mean to be shamelessly dropping it,
but it's one of the segments we do is called sharp calls.
And we'll do the podcast on Tuesday.
Then we'll do it on Thursday.
day. And we will talk about the calls that we've gotten over the 48 hours, me and Simon Hunter,
my co-host from professional betters saying what they agreed with and disagreed with about what
we had talked about on Tuesday. And we both came in saying we liked the Rams at plus three.
And the line has actually moved down to two and a half. So the bookmakers have moved it in the
Rams direction. But that's largely because of the tickets. And there have been a lot of very well-known
in the industry professional betting syndicates.
These are groups that bet large amounts of money together.
They spread it out all over the country where, you know,
betting is legal in so many places now.
Spending big money on the bucks.
Really, really big money on the bucks.
So the professionals are backing you up there.
Best bet of the week, Kansas City minus one and a half.
There's some numbers that tell you that Kansas City has right of the ship.
Josh Allen performances tend to be spike.
struggle. Spike struggle. I think there'll be some pretty good pressure applied to him with Kansas City's front.
I do like over the last couple of games, Buffalo did really make a movement toward being more balanced.
They were running the ball more with Moss and Singletary, more, trying to be less dependent on Josh Allen.
But as Greg Kosell says, they are still the most quarterback dependent team in the league.
I like Kansas City to win by a touchdown, a lot of points, a lot of fun, sharper square.
So I'm going to equivocate a little bit here.
I agree with you.
I like the chiefs.
My professional betting friend Simon Hunter loves the chiefs in this spot.
The wise guys collectively have been coming in on the bills.
I think you and I and Simon are all in the minority here.
And this is what we call a pros Joe's game.
If you look at the tickets, it's coming in on the chiefs.
If you look at the money, coming in on the bills, the line, that's why it's dropped.
It was at two and a half.
Then it went to two.
Unfortunately, I bet the chief's at minus two.
Now it's at one and a half, one and a half.
And a lot of the professionals are actually just betting the bills to win outright.
I think there is a lot of irrational exuberance that is happening for the bills right now.
You ask a lot of professionals, they say they're their top rated team.
I am going back to the basics.
If you're telling me, I'm getting a once-in-a-generation quarterback at home,
who is a two-time defending conference champion against the team and the bills that,
as good as they are right now, and we all believe they're great,
still didn't do the things they needed to do to put themselves in a position to have
home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
They lost to the jacks, right?
That was the game, to me, that it's going to come back and bite them a little bit.
I think they're going to look back at that and say, wow, we were not consistent enough.
We were not good enough.
They are built to beat the chiefs.
That is the one thing they have focused on.
I don't think it will be enough.
I am with you.
We are making an executive decision.
We are overriding what the wise guys are showing us.
We're on the chiefs.
All right.
I'm going to go Titans, Packers, Buck's Chiefs.
I know four favorites aren't going to win, but it is interesting.
I want you to think about this.
for the first time that I ever remember,
the best quarterback won every division.
Last week, the best quarterback won every playoff game
except the Dallas San Francisco game.
And I don't think the gap between DAC and Garoppolo at this point
is as massive as many would stipulate.
Every NFC playoff team was an offensive head coach.
Every single NFC playoff team.
From the Eagles all the way up to the Packers,
had an offensive coach.
If you take out the NFC East,
excuse me,
if you take out the AFC East,
where it's four defensive coaches,
take that one out.
The only division that was won by a non-offensive coach
was Mike Frable.
And by the way,
that may just be because Carson Wentz
makes ridiculous decisions.
I don't know.
But I,
the best quarterback this weekend,
Aaron Rogers,
Brady,
my homes and three of them.
That's why I have,
that's why I just have just a little pause with Cincinnati
because bro in the last two months has just been great.
In fact,
I asked this question the other day.
You get named a general manager.
It's a five-year contract.
So you're worried about the next five years.
You have to consider everything.
Health, age, cap hit, drama,
what five quarterback?
do you want. So I said, Josh Allen one, Mahomes two. I said, Herbert three, Burrow, four,
injury puts Burrow behind him, though I think he's a better quarterback, but that nasty
rookie year injury was real. Russell Wilson cap hit five and probably Aaron Rogers and Matt
Stafford after that. And people say you're out of your mind with Aaron. But if I'm a new GM,
Aaron's a lot of work.
And there's so much talent now that is much more coachable, not as punitive a cap hit.
So as great as he is, I also, I don't see Eric.
He's going to be 39 years old after the season.
Is he playing at 44?
He's not Brady.
If he lost this year in the playoffs, I'm not even sure he's a Packer.
So I'm not going to predict his future.
If I told you, everything considered, you're a GM, five quarterbacks in order.
Who would you take?
Mahomes, Mahomes, Mahomes, number one, he has to be your first pick.
He has to be.
It doesn't matter how much money he is costing you.
Then you fill in around it.
He can do more with less.
He's the greatest quarterback of his generation.
The things he can do are, don't get, don't get me, don't roll your eyes.
Don't give me a look.
He is.
He just is.
Okay.
Like that, that team was dress.
when the season began.
And because of him and because of the way he can adjust the way he plays,
they are now a team that is a number two seed in the AFC, in the AFC.
Love Josh Allen.
Totally agree.
We'd definitely take Josh Allen.
I would put Aaron Rogers up there.
39 is just not as old as it used to be.
And the guy is so gifted.
And I think he is so single-minded in his desire to prove
everybody wrong all the time, that that will play to the GM's advantage when they have him.
I love Herbert. I'm very worried about the inconsistency and the inaccuracies. I would take Joe
Burrow before I would take Herbert. So for me, it would be Mahomes, Allen, Rogers, Burrow, Herbert.
And would Stafford or Russell Wilson be six? No. I'd take Tom Brady before I take you
There are those guys. Give me two years. Give me two years of Tom Brady. I might get three years of
Tom Brady as a GM, but I would not take Russell Wilson or Matthew Stafford. Yeah, see, that's the
difference. I have, I drop friends for two reasons. You're a bad tipper or high maintenance.
You're out. Those are my only two. So I can't deal with, you ever see that show intervention?
I watched it one time. And I'm like, I can't watch this. These people drive me crazy.
I neediness is a game ender for me.
So you probably have more emotional intelligence.
You could babysit Aaron.
I'd be like, F-O-H, out of the office.
I can't deal with your nonsense.
I just can't do it.
I have a rule in my life.
And, you know, my wife says this.
Boats don't sink because of the water around them.
They sink based on how much water you let into the boat.
I don't want Aaron Rogers in my boat.
I don't want to deal with that nonsense.
but you probably can deal with people like that.
I can't deal with high-maintenance people.
Well, look, I definitely have throughout my career and managed a lot of talent,
have abided as much as I possibly can by a no-asshole policy.
And when we've built Action Network, we very much have tried to build it that way.
And we haven't always done it.
And when we've hired people that haven't been the right fit,
who haven't gotten along, who have been selfish about how they think about
what they're doing within the construct of the company, they don't last very long, right?
But I'm always willing to take the shot. I am willing to take a shot on talent. I am willing to
say, can we figure out a way to make it work? If it doesn't work, it doesn't work. You know,
you clean your hands, you walk away, that's that. If I'm a GM and I get Aaron Rogers
and I can have him for two years, that might be what I need to win a Super Bowl. That might be
what I need to get a contract extension. That might be what I need to,
establish my legacy to go on the speaking tour.
Like, I'm thinking partially selfishly here, what is Aaron Rogers going to get me?
And he's still going to be better than, than what is it, 29 other quarterbacks in the NFL.
He's going to win other MVP this year.
I don't know.
The whole Jay Cutler, Aaron Rogers, Baker Mayfield, God, it's just, you know, Cutler and Baker
and, it's a lot of work.
Guy, come on.
There's no comparison between.
Aaron Rogers, Jay Cutler, and Baker Mayfield.
Because Jay Cutler and Baker Mayfield never won anything.
They didn't come through in the clutch in any time in their careers.
Aaron Rogers has come through in the clutch so many times.
He's a better quarterback by every measure than those guys.
Aaron Rogers is going to the Hall of Fame.
Jay Cutler is not going to the Hall of Fame.
Jay Collar is Jeff George.
There's no comparison.
If it was Jay Cutler, I wouldn't even be thinking about putting him on my team.
I wouldn't be thinking about Baker Mayfield.
If there's drama and mediocrity, it's not a conversation.
If there's drama and transcendental excellence, there is a conversation.
Yeah.
I wonder what it would be like to manage me.
I don't think I could manage me.
There's too much going on there.
By the way, you don't think the people at Fox when you were, you know, negotiating to leave ESPN.
We got to measure the attitude versus the.
talent. How challenging
is it going to be?
That's funny. All right, brother.
Cross our fingers. Good talking.
Go, Chief. See you, buddy.
Chad Millman, YouTube channel.
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