The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 'Sharp or Square' NFL Week 13 Picks and Betting Breakdown

Episode Date: December 3, 2021

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" on some harsh truth for the most rabid college football fans, the word people use that drives him crazy, his reaction to the MLB lockout, and what it says about LeBron's Lakers that ESPN moved their game off national TV (3:00). Then, The Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin his NFL Week 13 picks are "sharp" or "square". They discuss Patriots/Bills (12:00), Chargers/Bengals (14:00), Giants/Dolphins (17:00), Broncos/Chiefs (23:00), 49ers/Seahawks (26:00), Eagles/Jets (27:00), Steelers/Ravens (28:00), Jaguars/Rams (30:00), Bucs/Falcons (31:00), and Vikings/Lions (31:00). Then, they look at the aftermath of an unforgettable week in college football week, on - and off - the field (32:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hi, everybody. Welcome in. It's our Friday morning podcast, Sharper Square with Chad Millman in 10 minutes. First, though, fake questions, real answers. I have things I want to talk about and don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, boy, what an amazing week of college football, isn't it? Doesn't this prove that college football is better than the NFL? Folks, no.

There are two weekends a year when social media erupts and makes the claim that college football is better than the NFL. Labor Day weekend when college football has four or five big games and the NFL season hasn't started. And Thanksgiving slash rivalry weekend when you always have. upsets in your Auburn, Alabama's, Oklahoma, Oklahoma, State, Michigan, Ohio State. It's a rivalry weekend. There's a reason we like the Stanley Cup playoffs over college hockey. There's a reason we like by a six to one margin, the NFL over college football

and major league baseball over the college world series because it's better. The coaching's better. The quarterbacking's better. The players are better. America likes better and we're willing to pay for better. People will go in debt to pay for better. College football is fun. And two weeks of the year, everybody goes nuts.

Look at every piece of data and metric. NFL is six times more popular for a reason. Here, Colin, what word makes you go crazy? It's always the same word, integrity. The biggest phonies on the internet are the people, the college football fans and basketball fans that are ripping kids. And then you look at their avatar and you read who they are. And it says Christian, husband, father. Really, that's not very Christian attacking a 21-year-old place kicker for the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Folks, you've got to get over integrity. There's a reason Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley and all these coaches bail because they're offered generational money. Brian Kelly turned around a dying brand. The last 12 years, Notre Dame has been its best 12 years, arguably ever, take away the era Parsegan era. You don't think he has a right eventually to cut the cord. And would you stop with what about the kids,

the transfer portal, education, great facilities, great travel, massive marketing, they get paid NIL, the kids are fine. Stop talking about integrity. That's for people who have never been offered great jobs. They're moralists on integrity. If somebody offers you $100 million, you're out the door before I can sign the effing check and you know it. Lincoln Riley looked at USC generational money I'm out the kids will be fine

they can transfer and phone if they want or they can stay in a great program in Oklahoma stop trying to preach integrity Oklahoma leads the country in fracking

is that environmental integrity when I think of Oklahoma football I think of Barry Switzer yeah integrity comes to mind your integrity is not mine. My morals aren't yours.

Dear Colin, do you hear about the Major League Baseball lockout? Yeah, barely. Listen, the difference between no baseball and them playing it, the activity is all about the same, right? If you took away all these sports and you started over with sports and you needed investors to create a sport, you do realize baseball couldn't get investors. Football could go to investors and go,

we got this idea for a sport. There's violence. It's great on television and people gamble on it. And there's a lot of action. Basketball. Listen, there's this sport. The season's kind of long, but it's got a bunch of stars. You could sell that.

Baseball. Young people don't really love it. It's slow. there's way too many games and there's not a ton of activity. You couldn't find investors for it. It's nothing against baseball. But here's all you need to know about baseball. I see my audience.

I see how big it is. I barely talk about it. Watch first take. Watch undisputed. Listen to my show. Watch Dan Patrick. Here's something we don't talk about. Regular season baseball.

I don't want to see a strike. I like postseason baseball, but the reality is this is a sport that will be severely hurt by a lockout if it moves into the regular season. Because lots and lots of young people have already given up on baseball. It's too slow, not enough action. Dear Colin, what do you make of ESPN swapping out the Lakers Clippers game and replacing it with the Warriors and Sons? Well, I actually like the move and I think it's just and real. We all admit in our business, all of us have to admit this, that big brands are good for our business. The Packers, the Cowboys, they're really good for my business.

Notre Dame being vibrant is really good for my business. Duke, Carolina being in a final four, elite eight, it's very good for my business. Yankees, Cubs, postseason. I've never, ever, ever tried to be inauthentic about. that. I've tried to always be totally honest with you. But in my business, we also have to be straight with the audience and not try to sell something for more than it's worth. The Lakers are bad. They're not nearly as good as the Sons, the Bucks, Brooklyn, the Warriors. I'm not going to pretend, even though the Lakers being great would be really, really great for my business. I'm not going to

pretend they're interesting. And the Lakers, I believe, is one of these gigantic brands that's in trouble. Now, the Yankees play in sport without a salary cap so they can always buy themselves out of trouble. And I do think USC football, a brand that's been dying, will bounce back with Lincoln Riley. I think generally the big brands go down, they come back up. Lakers have a problem. They're tied to LeBron and they're tied to Anthony Davis. And Anthony Davis is now a declining player who refuses to play his natural position, the five. He's shooting. He's shooting. 19% from three, he wants to be a four. That's why Frank Vogel will not last with his team.

Vogel wants a big. AD doesn't want to be a big. And the players in the NBA have more power than a coach. But the other issue is LeBron James generationally. Young players don't want to play with him. Why would a young player want to give their emerging brand to LeBron? That's why the Lakers have Westbrook and Mello and Dwight Howard. because older players still hold LeBron in a different category, the legend category.

But Michael Jordan got old, young players didn't want to play with him. Go ask all those wizards. Young players don't want to play with LeBron James. They want to create their own brand. All right. Let's bring in Chad Millman. Time for Sharper Square. Chief Content Officer Action Network.

I thought I was on the right side most of last week, especially on the Denver game, was my favorite betton it won, but I had a bad record. I'm okay with it. I had a great college football season. That made me happy. So let's start with this. I'm going to go backwards. I'm going to start. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. You had a bad record, but we went over the games last week. And for the third week in a row, I had a really good record. So what's not translating? And we both, and we talked about the Bronx. No, I won that game. But I also took the Colts. I took a lot of dogs. I took the Colts. So I just took the wrong game. but I took a bunch of, and I took the favorite, my favorite was the Cowboys.

Yeah. Yeah. So I'm going to go backwards. I want to start with my, a strong play. I'm going to take Patriots plus the points at Buffalo, 80 to 90% chance of snow. Who does that hurt? Buffalo. Windy, snowy, Stefan Diggs, not a factor.

Also, the bills don't run the football effectively. Who does? New England. And during the six-game winning streak, I know everybody wants to say it's about defense. They're averaging 35 points. Right now, New England's the better team because they have an identity and an identity that plays really well in windy cold weather. I love New England in this spot, Sharper Square.

Totally sharp. The wise guys have been playing the Patriots. It's been really interesting when the wise guys will play the Patriots. if the number moves down a little bit to two and a half, they immediately buy back on the bills. So the bookmakers know that three is sort of the number where they're finding the most balance. Everything you're saying is right. I'm going to go opposite. I love the bills in the spot.

Like strong feelings about the bills. My favorites co-host Simon Hunter, professional better Simon Hunter, is going to against everybody he talks to in the industry. He loves the bills. Listen, I have lost many times this year, fading Mac Jones, peak Mac Jones. I just think that this is a time where it's going to be a real challenge and you're getting the bills in a primetime game.

And the line is probably a little bit closer. than what it should be power rated at because of all the Mac Jones hype, I think there's an over adjustment that's been had. So give me the bills. All right. So I'm going to take another dog, Chargers plus three and a half at the Bengals. So the Bengals have maybe their biggest in division win in a decade. They destroy and humiliate the Steelers.

Pittsburgh's a bad team right now. And the Bengals are a good team, but there's still a little bit of this roster is still in the rebuilding mode. And I think now we're going a little high on them. I've made more money on the chargers than any team in the league this year, betting against them. But I'm going to take the three and a half. I think it's a shootout. I think you have a very desperate charger team on the brink of being knocked out of the top seven in the AFC. I do worry that Joe Mixon, and I think the chargers know this, they can control the clock.

But I feel like sometimes there's the regression to the mean. Cincinnati's not nearly as good as they looked last week. now people will come pouring in. I'll take the chargers and the points, sharper square. Totally sharp. So sharp. This line has moved from three and a half down to three. And it's everything you said. You hit all the buzzwords, right? There's a bounce back scenario for the chargers. There's a desperation scenario for the chargers. There's a regression to the mean on both sides for the chargers and the Bengals. And we talked about the Broncos, right? Last week, week. We loved the Broncos. And we have both been fading the Chargers for weeks because we faded them against the Steelers the week before when they were six point favorites. Like the Chargers early in the year were winning and were everyone's darling because they were converting so well on third and fourth downs. They've stopped doing that. Their defense has been exposed. Justin Herbert's

accuracy problems have been exposed. And teams are learning how to play them defensively a little bit better. but now the pendulum has swung. It's a little bit what I talked about with the Patriots. The pendulum has won so much against the chargers. And you're always going to find value on a team that has an ugly loss against a team everyone thought was not as good against a team in the Bengals that just come off a massive win against the Steelers. So 100% you're buying the right side here. All right. Now let me go to a favorite, Dolphins minus five against the Giants.

So I talked to Lewis Riddick this week. He had a good point. He said, we've fallen in love with the aesthetics of quarterback play. He said, Mac Jones is boring. And two is boring. And they complete 75% of their throws with a really good defensive coach and great corners. Is if you think the Giants are going to go in with a backup quarterback and move the ball at all against the dolphins in Miami, you're nuts. And that two is doing exactly what Mack Jones is.

basically Miami's a poor man's version of New England. He completes 80% of his throws. They don't run it like New England, but great defense. They kind of stay within the 20s and strike when the opportunities arise. By the way, with Waddle now playing, they have a big time perimeter threat. I'm going to take the dolphins here. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. I think they're going to go right up against it.

And I wouldn't want to play them right now because I believe Brian Flores last year, great coach. Brian Flores, now good coach. Once they just said, listen, two is limited, but he's our limited. It's like New Yorkers say, yeah, we know New York's a pain in the ass, but it's our city. Okay, we'll deal with the traffic. We'll deal with the taxes. I think Miami's a tough out, and I'm going to take him minus the five. Well, you'd be square.

Here's a good example to show you how square this is. This game was it about Giants plus three and a half early in the week. and the news came out about Daniel Jones, and he's not going to be playing, and it's going to be Mike Lennon, the number immediately was reposted Giants plus five and a half, right? So bookmakers adjusted at about two points, which tells you how little they think of Daniel Jones, that it only moved two points from Daniel Jones to Mike Lennon. As soon as his number got reposted, the wise guys came in and bought it back down. It went from Giants plus five and a half, Giants plus five, Giants plus four and a half. In some places, it's now Giants 4. It's basically going back down to the number

it was at. And the reason why, there's a couple reasons. Number one, you're getting Miami for all the things that you just said about Miami, you could argue the same things about the Bengals, and yet you don't like the Bengals against the Chargers. Miami is the same thing. They are surging right now. You are buying the dolphins at the top of their market because Tua, every week, you look at his numbers and like, oh my God, Tua was 27 of 31. for 280 yards and no picks. And this team won again because their defense is so good. So you have to ask yourself, like, is this team a playoff caliber team, especially when

looking at the Giants, right? Giants beat New Orleans as a dog. They beat Carolina as a dog. They beat Vegas as a dog. Their losses are to Dallas, the Rams, Kansas City, Tampa Bay. They lost the Falcons by three, a cover. Washington football team by one a cover. So are the dolphins in the bucket with Dallas, the Rams, Kansas City, Tampa Bay? I don't think so. Are they more likely to be in the bucket

with the other teams? Yes. So history will tell you that the Giants in this scenario will find a way to cover this game if not win it outright. NFL playoff race heating up. How about you join the Fandul Sportsbook right now? All customers get a $10 parlay bet bonus. Place 20 bucks in the same game parlay bets and get a $10 bonus, regardless if your bet wins or loses. I'd take the Chargers plus three and a half against the Bengals and the over. I think between Burrow and between Justin Herbert, it's going to be a classic shootout, Chargers plus three and a half and the over. There's no feeling like nailing a same game parlay.

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Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

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Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

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I think it's a Chris Jones number. I think what you're saying here is Denver's not going to move the ball at all against Kansas City's improved defense. I'm almost willing to swallow Kansas City minus nine here. I don't think their offense is going to get right this year. Outside of their center, the rookie from Oklahoma, Creed Humphrey, I don't think the offensive line's great. I think he's playing great. He and Roshan Slater have been absolute A-plus rookie offensive linemen. But I think what this number is telling you is Denver's not going to move the football

because Denver generally with a pass rush doesn't move the football. Sharper square if I took Kansas City. Square. The numbers move. The market shows you that it's square. The line used to be 10 and a half. It moved down to 10. now it's at nine, that tells you that the wise guys are coming in on the Broncos here,

55% of the money coming in on the Broncos. This is about defense. This is about Kansas City still struggling. We're going to talk about Andy Reid off a buy. Andy Reid off a buy against the spread is not Andy Reid off a buy winning outright. Okay. And so you're talking about why is Andy Reid off a buy? better than Teddy Covers, Teddy, Teddy Bridgewater, who I call Teddy Covers, who is 26 and 9 against

the spread as a dog. And their defense, the Broncos defense, their Red Zone defense is outstanding. Led the league in Red Zone touchdown percentage in 2019. Let it again in 2020. It's the first time a defense has done that since this stat, meaning back to back, led the league in that stat, since the stat started being tracked. It's not a fluke how well they play in the Red Zone and the Chiefs, because they have been the Chiefs, are terrible as favorites. Terrible as favorites of more than a field goal and really, really, really terrible like they don't cover at all of more than a touchdown the past season and a half. So in this scenario, you've got a home divisional, you've got a home game, a home team in the division. They're laying more than

three. That covers at just a 43% clip. 2003. So for all those reasons, I'll be on the Broncos, as will the Sherps. Having an identity is really important. I feel the Niners have found their identity once Elijah Mitchell got healthy. Now, they lacked Debo Samuel. So what concerns me about San Francisco is this is a low scoring game. They win one way, and that's run the football. They're minus three at Seattle that has no identity. My gut, would say take San Francisco, sharp or square square? It's the, the, this is dictated by the number, right?

So, uh, the number had been at, uh, three and a half. If you can still get it at three and a half, you take the Seahawks. If it's at three, it's generally a pass because what you're getting here is, as you said, there's no debo. Also, Fred Warner's out, Greenlaw is out. The Niners finally started getting healthy. and then they have another cluster of injuries, you're just getting a massive by-low spot on the Seahawks

because of how bad they've looked. Russell Wilson, something is off, right? Either he rushed back. There's a lack of comfort with the offense, new offensive coordinator, whatever it is. But this is a market play. It's not a team play. It's you bet this with the three and a half because it's the hook,

because of the home team that is an underdog in that spot. And over the long term, which is what you want to be as a better, you don't want to play it game to game, you buy the hook in that spot. Eagles minus six and a half at the Jets. I would like the favorite Eagles, sharp or square? Totally sharp, which is interesting, right? Because sharps are normally not going to like taking a road favorite that is creeping into the seven. But, you know, we do this on the favorites, right? where we have the show on Tuesday, we'll go over all the games.

And then on Thursday, I'll say to Simon, okay, all the wise guys listen to the show, tell me right now, what are the sharp calls you're getting? Eagles was the number one sharp call, talking about how much everybody loves the Eagles this week. No one sees the Jets covering against an Eagles team that is much, much better than the Giants who they played last week and really lost because they had three turnovers. This has been a team in Eagles team that the wise guys have been betting all season long, They see them as a playoff team. They still think they're one of the most undervalued teams by the books.

And they're playing against Zach Wilson, who when he's grading out is really one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. All right. I ask you for one or two picks every week that I haven't discussed that you think are interesting. Throw them at me. The Steelers plus three and a half. Actually, it's up to four and a half at the Ravens. Nobody wants to bet the Steelers. It is ugly.

Nobody wants to bet a team that just lost to the Bengals by 31 points in a game that really everyone thought this was a get right spot for Pittsburgh. This is when you bet the Steelers. Betting is about doing bad things, right? Betting is about holding your nose. And I know you hate that because you don't want to bet on things that you want to watch. But Steelers plus four and a half. Think about this game. Think about this game.

Since John Harbaugh joined the Ravens as their coach in team. 2008, 13 and 13 in the regular season against the Steelers. The average margin is one. 20 of the 26 games have been decided by one possession. 17 of 26 decided by four or less. Four have gone to overtime. Favorites, here's the key. Favorites of three or more since 2008, 26 games are one, 13 and two against the spread. one time since 2008, a team that was a favorite of more than three has covered the spread in this game. It just, as bad as the Steelers look, as decent as the Ravens look, and they have them look great with Lamar Jackson, you know, consistently coming back from illness. They look terrible against the Browns.

In this series, that number, you play the dog. Anything else? I would not touch the Rams, although they think the Rams could get health. against the Jags. Jags are a weird team about every third week. They play really well. They're just slow. Yeah, right. And so that, but that's also why you always have to bet them. You know, we've talked about Honestead.com. We've been talking about games for 10 years. Every week, I will say, take the Jags because that's what the professionals are doing. They're going to take the Jags again this week for exactly what you just said.

They took the Jags last week and plus two. They'll take the Jags this week as big dogs against the ramps. They're just going to do it every week. The Falcons are interesting in 11-point under underdog at home against the bucks. That's going to be one people are talking about. The other one that is really, really gross, the Detroit lines against the Vikings at plus seven. And how you know this game is getting money from the professionals is that it is not moved off of seven.

The bookmakers have basically said, we're drawing a line in the sand. This line is seven. And they're going to make professional betters, take this number. and not even worry about. This is a massive, massive game for professional betters. It'll be really interesting. Right. I'm done.

It's a weird week for numbers. I really like the Patriots. I really like the Chargers. I think you talked me into the Steelers. I think it's a weird week for numbers. I had my best college football with Fandle, my best college football. I went three and O. My last five weeks, I was three and O, three and O, three and O, three and O, three and O, I

was on fire. I was like Colin Wilson, your guy. I was on fire. Yeah. How great. This past weekend for college football was so good. And I watched, you know, I'm a Midwest guy, right? So I'm always going to, when Michigan and Ohio State are both great and there's a marquee matchup with those two, it's just always going to mean more to me than Georgia and Alabama or LSU Alabama. That game from Ann Arbor on Saturday. Kudos to the Fox production team. From the moment that game started with the images from inside the tunnel with the snow falling before the teams came out, the production of the game, the capturing the fight in the locker

room or in the in the tunnel in between halftime. And then the post game celebration, I was riveted. Riveted the entire time. It was amazing. It was so much fun to be a college football fan that day. And it was good for the sport for Michigan to win. It means, let's 49 states we're rooting for Michigan is no Bama fan wants to hear this, but Bama is boring. I mean, outside of the South.

In Ohio State, you know, they're obnoxious. But the truth is the sport's better when that conference is a two or a three team conference, not a one team conference. So, yeah, you know, my favorite part, I'm agnostic. So when anybody talks morals are, I always roll my eyes. all these fan bases Notre Dame they weren't too bad Oklahoma

you stole our coach there's no integrity it's such you know and again I'm a coastal elitist and agnostic so I think all morality is flexible

all integrity is flexible I don't think fracking is environmentally integrous so you know stop it's me but I one of my favorite things

about college football is once you put that plaque on the wall, fans are crazy. Like NFL fans will bet against their team. Like, my team sucks. You cannot get an Ohio State fan to ever bet against their team. The plaques on the wall, they go to the school.

Deep down, all of us in the media wanted to see Michigan. I'm not going to speak for everybody, but we wanted to see the Big Ten become a two-team conference or a three-team conference. We all want Mel Tucker and James Franklin to stay. We want Jim Harbaugh to work. It's not anti-Ohio State. It's pro-depth-of-conference, right? Yes. People don't get that the media doesn't have a bias for teams.

The media has a bias for stories. What can I talk about? Ohio State being dominant every single year and everyone else sort of battling for second place is not interesting. Give us some tension. give us a narrative that we can talk about for three, four, five, six, seven days out of the month, 30 days out of the month. Whatever it is, that's what people root for.

And by the way, if you're coastal elite, it's because those are the teams that end up having the most drama and bring in the most audience. I know when it comes to the spring and football's over, there's going to be three things that Colin Coward will talk about. NFL free agency, NFL draft, LeBron James. Those will be the most interesting things for every single fan of sports that will get the widest possible. The fans really think we care about their team winning. No, just give me stories. I'm rooting for tire fires on the freeway. I just want smoke.

I just want, I always say in the media, we report on plane crashes, not on plane landings. give us mayhem. As long as nobody gets hurt, give us mayhem. This weekend, if Alabama had lost to Auburn, how amazing would that have been for the conversation about the playoff.

That's why we're rooting against Alabama. It's not because I don't like Nick Savin. It's because I want something interesting to happen. By the way, have you seen Oklahoma State play? Yeah. Yeah, I said it three weeks ago. Most underrated team in the country, watch them give Georgia a little trouble.

They'll spread them out. They have a real defense too by big 12 standards. Yeah, that defense is good. Watch Oklahoma State if they get in. Watch them give Georgia trouble. Those Georgia guys, Oklahoma State's a three-star program. They don't even go get the big stars. They get J-C guys, three-star guys.

You know, Georgia's been so glommed onto a chance to play like a Michigan. Watch out. And the line will probably be, you know, 13, 12, Oklahoma State could be one of the bets of the year. By the way, I'm not going to talk about the amount I won. I bet a lot on Michigan. I am not joking. They were, listen, you know, you mentioned Colin Wilson, right?

Like, for college football, that's all anybody was talking about last week. That Michigan number, and by the way, the Michigan number, it was shrinking. It started off big and like just kept getting smaller and smaller because all the money was coming in on Michigan. People were like, what is going on here? And that number just kept getting, even up to Saturday morning, like seven and a half, all of our experts were like, Michigan, Michigan. It was, yeah, it was an onslaught. Chad Milman, good seeing you, buddy. Thanks again. Good to see you too, brother. All right, everybody. Go to YouTube, Instagram, Twitter. It's called the volume sports. Go to YouTube, sign up, subscribe, push the button lower right. Talk soon.

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