The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 'Sharp or Square' Week 16 NFL Picks, 'Fake Q's, Real Answers" on Tues NFL W, Overrated AD

Episode Date: December 23, 2021

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" on why the NFL MVP award is badly in need of an update (4:00), if the NFL should embrace regular Tuesday games (6:00), if more sports should expand their playoffs (9:00), the most overblown sports story of the year (11:00), and the most overrated star in sports (12:00). Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 16 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Chargers/Texans (16:00), Bills/Patriots (22:00), Jags/Jets (23:00), Dolphins/Saints (24:00), Browns/Packers (25:00), Niners/Titans (26:00), Rams/Vikings (28:00), Lions/Falcons (30:00), and Bucs/Panthers (32:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It's America's number one sports book, incredibly easy to use, super safe, totally secure, super fast payouts in as quick as two hours. You're not going to get that anywhere. Also, same game parlay bets, live betting. It's the best. Hey, if you're new, just download the Fan Duel Sportsbook. I did it in 15 seconds. Get started now. Sign up. Please use the promo code Colin so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-I-N. Fandul-Sportsbook app, sign up. Hi, everybody, and welcome in to the Thursday morning podcast. Chad Millman in 10 minutes.

First, though, fake questions, real answers. I have things I want to talk about and don't want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, do you think the term most valuable player needs to be replaced with something else? Yes, I do. The meaning of a word might stay the same over time, but the connotation and how we feel about it can change. I'll give you a great example. Soda companies right now are eliminating the word diet from all of their products. So in the 80s and 90s, right, the word diet was popular. It was fashionable.

Everybody should be lean and trim. Well, now studies show that Gen Z members don't like the word diet. It means perhaps depriving yourself or trying to achieve some unhealthy idea of body image. That's why diet sodas are now called zero sugar sodas. And I feel the same way about the MVP award. Most valuable player is another term that should go the way to the dinosaur. Listen, quarterback salaries have ballooned a 40, 50 million a year. right? We can't have anything or any proximity to the word value for a franchise.

They're not, they're not a value anymore. To me, what makes Brady and great quarterbacks more successful over the last 20 years is they don't have the salary cap hit of an Aaron Rogers currently or a Russell Wilson. Brady's always been a smaller cap hit. Patrick Mahomes this year is a $7 million cap hit. I don't like the word valuable because it limits who can win the award. 13 to the last 14 MVP have been quarterbacks. Adrian Peterson, the only exception. Just call it best player.

That's what college basketball does. Men's and women's March Madness, most outstanding player. If it's a best player award, then T.J. Watt, Cooper Cup, Michael Parsons have a shot. If it's most valuable, it's got to be a quarterback. They simply touch the ball more, have more impact on every play, and frankly, we've never had a wide receiver as an MVP. Why? Because they're quarterback dependent.

As long as it's called valuable, it will be a limited award. Dear Colin, what did you make of those Tuesday games in the NFL? Thanks for asking. First of all, their affirmation of the power of the NFL. I've said this to my wife about coffee. I can tell what an addiction is because time is irrelevant. I like coffee in the morning. I like it in the late morning.

I like a cup after lunch, late afternoon. And frankly, sometimes my favorite dessert is espresso over vanilla ice cream. I like coffee all day. That's how I feel about the NFL. I think it's my second addiction. It doesn't matter the day you put it on. I would rather watch an NFL game than anything else on television. Seriously. And remember this. Broadcast media viewing overall went down 10% last year, this past year. NFL ratings up 11%. The Raider Cowboy Thanksgiving game, most watched NFL game in 28 years. So it used to be that Mash Seinfeld Cheers got such a huge rating that there was no reason to put the NFL on during the week. But broadcast prime numbers have been plummeting for years.

So nothing can rival Monday night football or Thursday night football or frankly even rocky, bumpy, ugly Tuesday night football. One of the downsides to the NFL, one of the few things that irritates me is the one o'clock window, Eastern or 10 a.m. window on Sunday. There's too many games at one time. That's why I buy the Red Zone. I can't keep up with seven games at one time. I'd love there to be four and you put a couple games on Tuesday. Now that broadcast primetime ratings are in the tank, and they're going down every year, I think the NFL should lighten up the early window on Sunday and consider manipulating the schedule with an occasional Tuesday night game. That's why they plan Thursdays, right, to win another night of prime time at a Tuesday.

Dear Colin, don't you think this season has proved that the NFL playoff expansion was a good idea? I'm for always expanding all playoffs. If it was up to me, I'd go back to a 14 game NFL regular season and add two more layers of playoff games. I mean, what's insane about baseball is not only that the regular season has 162 regular season games and last six months. What's more insane is that postseason only lasts four weeks. If you look at the more successful way to get ratings, people often complain the NBA playoffs are too long. No, they get it. Baseball doesn't.

In a more fragmented, frenetted, caffeinated world, the way to get people's attention is urgency. So I would be for expanding the NBA playoffs and cutting down the regular season to 60 games. I would be for cutting baseball down to 100 games and having a two and a half month playoff season. I'd be for cutting down college football to 10 games and having 24 teams in the playoff. It's a different society. We're more distracted. More playoffs, more urgency, less regular season to me is always a win. Dear Colin, what's the most overplayed story of the year?

Well, the one that cracks me up is how a college football comes. coach fits in a region. You know how they say all politics is local? Well, so is all sports. Nobody gives a rip in Baton Rouge how Brian Kelly plays outside of Baton Rouge. Ed Orgeron sounded like he belonged at LSU. He no longer works there. Lincoln Riley does not sound like he's from California. He's got a little twang. Nobody cares. Pete Carroll had no affiliation to Southern California. None of that stuff matters. it just doesn't matter people don't like brian kelly people love ed orgeron who's the better coach if you start looking around college football and the history of the sport 75% of the time are

or more fit is completely utterly irrelevant chip was from new hampshire he turned oregon into a power Mario Cristobal was from Miami. He got Oregon back to being in near power. It doesn't matter. Colin, you talk about stars in sports. Is there a most overrated star in all of sports? You know, it's funny when people use the word overrated, because I actually think most athletes are properly rated.

We know who's great. We know who's not great. So I don't feel there's a lot of overrated athletes in sports. if there was one that jumps to my attention, it's Anthony Davis now of the Lakers. Charles Barkley calls him street clothes because he's never available. The only time you won a championship was during a pandemic when he got a three and a half month hiatus in the middle of a regular season, which was of great benefit to Anthony Davis because he cannot stay healthy.

He's simply not regularly available. Jordan, LeBron are almost always available. He doesn't have leadership DNA. He's not willing to play the five, and he's nearly seven feet. He'd rather shoot from three where he's hitting 19%. You know, AD is a little like a pharmaceutical drug that sounds great, and then they spend the next 45 seconds telling you about all the side effects. And you're like, you know what?

I'd rather have my heart explode. I'm not taking this. It's with Anthony Davis, I keep hearing he's a star, but all the side effects are never available, not really a leader, doesn't want to play his natural position. I really, honestly, we used to blame the Pelicans for Anthony Davis's rap. It was completely accurate. He's just a really talented two. He'll never be a one.

All right, let's begin, Chad Millman. Time for Sharper Square. Listen, I've had a miserable year and I'm okay with it. I really am okay with it. I got my booster shot this week. I don't even have a sore arm. Omicron, I'm not afraid of it. I'm going to hit it head on.

I got my Christmas shopping done. I got to be honest with you. My life has been so good. This year has been so full of joy. I'm going to live with my crappy picks and keep doing sharp and square. I'm okay with it. Do you know what's interesting? I've had a pretty good year. I got my booster. Things worked out well with action. And yet the losses hurt as much. Like I wake up on Monday mornings sometime and or specifically last Friday. I was the Chargers plus three and a half was probably

one of my biggest bets of the year against the Chiefs. There wasn't any point in that game where I thought, oh, I'm not going to win this bet until overtime, right? Yeah. And as well as things are going, I got a great life, right? We sold action. I love my job. I love the people I work with. My family's amazing.

They're healthy. All things good. We've had like working with the volume this year for action has been amazing. The favorites has blown up. Like all these great things. I wake up Friday morning and it took me like 48 hours before I could talk about. That's what it does. That's what it does.

It's the juice. We kind of need it. It keeps us humble. It's the juice. But also like you, I just like to be right. And in this business we're in, we publicly stake a claim. We say, this is the side. And there have been so many times this year where we've been right, right?

We talked about it last week. We talked about Colts and the Patriots. You wanted to go Patriots. I wanted to go Colts. And I felt great because even though I was, I was winning money on it. I felt better that there was public vindication. And like that's just part of the game.

That's it. So Sharper Square, there are a couple of times that I know it's a big number. And part of me says, oh, this is going to be square. But I feel strongly about chargers minus nine and a half of the Texans for two reasons. One, the Texans want the number one pick. They're not going to get the number one pick. There's no valid. There's no reason for them to win.

Chargers have extra time to prep coming off a disappointing loss. This is a really good team over the last month. And they have inspiration and motivation to win. I think the Chargers roll the Texans. I know it's square, but I love this bet. All right. Well, the Sharpside will eventually be the Texans. It's like it's kind of power rated in that 9 to 10 range.

So you're getting the number, right? You're on what the professionals handicapped this game to be. It's creeping up to 10. I will tell you when it gets to 10, the wise guys are going to come in and they're going to take the Texans. And they have not shown any indication that they care about the number one pick. And also, there isn't a consensus number one pick. And if you have one of the top two picks, you're likely to. taking a cornerstone defensive end, right? So whether you're one or two, depending on your

feeling about Tibido or Hutchinson, that's how you're sort of handicapping this particular race. But I want to throw something out of you. Davis Mills having a better year than Trevor Lawrence. Like five fewer games, significantly better QB rating, more passing touchdowns. the Texanger is not an automatic out when he's playing. He's been accurate enough, right? His QB rating is in the 80s. So you really want to wait and see if you get the 10. It's way too big of a number for the team in the charges that doesn't deserve that kind of respect.

It's a team that plays with a lot of variance. As we saw last Thursday, leaves a lot of points on the board. It's challenging for any better to bet a big number with them. Well, the holidays are here and Fandu's Sportsbook has a gift for all new customers. No, not a new pair of slippers. We're talking about... Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way,

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a little revenge. I don't feel strongly about it, but it feels like the market's telling me at minus two and a half, not three, to take New England. So I'd take them, Sharper Square. This is a pros Joe's game. Bets are coming in on the pets, about 57% of the bets, 61% of the money coming in on the bills. That tells you that the professionals are betting on the bills. They have this power rated at pick. So you're getting about two and a half points of value.

You're getting in Josh Allen, a better playmaking quarterback. You're getting weather that is not expected to be your typical late December, New England sort of shit show, for lack of a better term. And that kind of matchup favors the bills in a speed and skill perspective. So, far side is the bills, my friend.

Jags, Jets. Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this? No, I'll tell you why. All season have said, I'm not betting bad teams. And when we did this last week, I said you wanted to do the Washington football team

plus four and a half against the Eagles. I'm like, what are you doing? I stopped you before even you went into your logic. What are we doing here? Robert Sala. Robert Sala and Zach Wilson need a win. The Jags have no playmakers. Jets are going to roll minus two and a half, sharper square.

Totally gross. Totally gross. Another one. 66% of the bets are on the New York Jets. 88% of the money is on the Jax. In fact, so much professional money coming in. in on the Jaguars, this line has moved from two and a half to minus one. So if you like the Jets, bet him at one because it's so lopsided.

It's heading in the Jags direction. More importantly, you've got millions of fans. Why are you asking them to bet on this game? That's a good question. How about this one? Dolphins plus three at the Saints. Little over-zealous people are because the Saints shut out. Tom Brady. Dolphins right now are a more consistent team. I'm getting points. It's one of my

favorite bets, sharper square. This is 100% my favorite bet. Totally sharp. I bet this at three and a half. It opened at three and a half. It's been bent down to three. It's headed at two and a half. Get it while you can. You should like Miami here. The Saints are overinflated. even at that half point from three and a half down to three because of that went against the bucks. One wise guy I talked to said he liked Miami at any number over plus one and a half. So you still got a little time to get it, but the number is shrinking. Browns plus seven and a half at Green Bay.

Cleveland is far more desperate. They get most of their team back. You know, Green Bay is an interesting team. Outplayed by Cincinnati this year. Chicago stayed close, had to come from behind in the last minute against San Francisco. Green Bay is a good team, still banged up. They'll probably win. I'll take Cleveland plus seven and a half, Sharper Square.

99% of the money, not the bets, the money. Money is an indication of what professionals are doing. 99% is on the Packers. It's no surprise. The line has moved a touch in their direction. A, there's not a ton of faith in Baker. If he even is going to play, we don't know. Miles Garrett now questionable with a groin he injured on Monday night.

We expect regression from the Packers because they've been incredibly good against the spread this year at a pace that is unsustainable. But they did just not cover a game against the Ravens. So some of the air is out of that expected. regression. You won't find a ton of pros supporting you in this one, largely because we have so much limited info on who will be playing for Cleveland. And one thing that they are talking about is that even if Cleveland does go full strength, they haven't practiced together in a while. And the Packers, like, you say they're banged up, relatively healthy, right? Like, they are getting practice time together. They have been playing together. So you're not sure what you're getting in a Brown's team right now.

I didn't know the Miles Garrett information. Why didn't I know that? Had I told me that, I would have taken Green Bay. It looked like he shredded his groin on Monday night. Like he was barely walking. So I would be concerned about his ability to play. But don't worry. When we're going to get to the end, I'm going to give you games to think about that aren't the Browns and aren't the Jets and the Jets. I would take the Titans plus three and a half against the Niners and the under.

I think San Francisco has been playing in a really good clip. And they also have not been turning the ball over. They've gotten some turnover breaks. That stuff doesn't last forever. I think it's low-scoring and ugly. And in a low-scoring game, I'm going to take the hook. I'm going to take Tennessee plus three and a half. Yeah, three and a half is exactly the right side.

Of course, you're taking the Titans here. The wise guys are going to take the Titans here. They've struggled offensively. They've lost ugly against the Steelers recently, which is why this line ticked up a little bit. But this is a big butt. The Niners are flying super high right now. We are getting peak, peak niners. And the Titans are starting to get players back.

Plus, their defense is significantly stingier than it had been earlier in the year. Their secondary specifically is underrated. So while they haven't been scoring, they haven't been giving up a ton of points either. So you're getting a home team, home team. They're more than a field goal. You're getting that hook. You take it. Now, the game that's fascinating to me, and I just, there's a game every week.

I just say, tell me what side I should take. So the Rams are minus three against Minnesota. And I look at that game and I think, God, Rams are on a short week. But the game is crucial because they can still win their division. So Stafford in big spots, I trust more than Kirk Cousins in big spots. This is a very average defense. My gut is Rams minus three. Tell me where to go sharper square.

What's the right side? I think the Rams are the right side. You know, I listened to your radio program today. And it's very good. You know what? It's pretty exceptional. It's excellent. And I'm hoping you get discovered.

I feel like. I'm not out there now. I feel like someone is going to realize that you've got something to say. And they're finally going to give you a platform. But I listened to specifically to the segment about OBJ. And I loved how you sort of said, he was maybe. the 18th most famous person in LA. And like 18th was such a specific insult because it might not even be a hundred and 80th. Right. And it was a great point about Matthew Stafford is better and is more

accomplished than OBJ. Cooper Cup is on pace to have one of the greatest years in receiving history. Aaron Donald is a Hall of Famer. Jalen Ramsey is a generational talent at cornerback. Right. So OBJ is coming in and he's doing all these things. And it's really because there's a lot of other ways to emphasize what the Rams that they're doing that they're doing well. I thought last night was a really interesting game against the Seahawks. They played it. They played well. They covered the spread, which I was surprised by.

I didn't bet the game. But I thought seven was a really big number for the Seahawks. The problem with this game, and three is the right side. But it was at two and a half before the game last night. So you're not getting the best of the number. And what you should have been thinking about is, do I like LA last night? If I do, should I bet them right now? Because if they win, that number is going to go up.

I still like it at three. I like it better at two and a half. All right. Tell me the game, plural. Give me two, you like and why. All right. Don't hate me because it's disgusting. But the lions are visiting the Falcons this week.

Oh, Jesus. I know. Last week, this line was at seven. The Falcons were favored by seven points. After the Lions beat the Cardinals and the Falcons got blown out, this line opened at four. It's now at six. Six is a key number. Seven is a key number.

In this age of two-point conversions, in this age of kickers missing a lot of point after tribes, six is still a good number. before the Lions beat the Cardinals. I emphasized this got down to four, right? This was at seven. So you're getting a point of value on a key number because it's at six. It could have been at seven. But this is really about a comeback to Earth's spot for Detroit, whose secondary is truly

terrible. Jared Goff was in the COVID protocols. And it's a Falcons team that when they play good teams, they're 0 and 6. when they play bad teams, which is what the lions are, they're six and two. They have a negative 145 point differential against good teams. Their point differential against bad teams is positive. This is when the Falcons actually cover. So I like the Falcons, even at minus six, even though you're no longer getting the best of the number.

Are you ready for something truly disgusting? This is like... An old meal, Emma or something like that? Yeah, it's gross. It's professional betting. This is how you get your professional betting platform. The Panthers plus 10 and a half against the Buccaneers. Well, you know what? Let me throw this at you. So, Donald may play, but secondly, I talked about this today on the show if you listen to my exceptional radio show, is that Tom's a creature of habit. So when he went to Tampa, there was all this chaos that he hadn't experienced in 20 years.

New house, new schools, new offense, new coach, new system, new teammates. So what did he want? Gronk, he fought for gronk and a power back because he had a good running game, right, in New England. Once they won the championship, he wanted everybody back. Buccaneers oblige. he was always a great prime time player in New England. He's terrible at night in New England. Why?

Because he's become more personally rigid and inflexible in Tampa because he has so much chaos in his life. So he needs desperately certain things. Gronk. Leonard Fernette. He fights so hard for A, B. So these he's, if you notice, you're going to love this. His last nine losses in New England, he had no multiple interception games. His nine losses in Tampa, he's got six multi-interception games.

He unravels much more quickly in Tampa because of the chaos. If he doesn't have certain things he needs, Gronk is out. Leonard Fernette's hurt. He unravels very quickly. Night games don't work anymore. Missing my power running back doesn't. worked missing my ally at tight end no question you think this is nuts right carolina's the side here Colin listen i'm not as famous as you i don't get invited to special private off-the-record sessions

with tom Brady because i know jim gray like you do so i can't make this assessment about Tom Brady in the way that you can. But what I can tell you is that 80% of the bets are on the road favorite right now. That is the Buccaneers. When you have that kind of public favorite at more than a touchdown, it historically goes in the direction of the underdog. The bucks are hurting right now. Leonard Fournette is out. Chris Godwin is out. The Panther secondary, which speaks to your point about interceptions is amongst the best in the league. The Panthers will try to run the ball against a Tampa defense that is really good against the run. But if Matt Rule has to run it 85 times to keep Sam Donald or Cam Newton or anybody from throwing the ball downfield and creating

turnovers, he's going to do it. It will lead to controlling the clock. It will lead to a lower scoring game. It will lead to 10 and a half being a really hard number. for the bucks to cover. You were spot on. You knew it the whole time. Why give me jagged jets? Yeah, I know. I know.

Those are the oatmeal enemas of the schedule. I don't know why I went there. I don't even know what an oatmeal enema is. I read about it one time and it's the most disgusting thing I've ever heard. So I thought it was apropos. It sounds terrible. Well, especially if I like blueberries with my oatmeal. So that's even worse.

When I was at ESPN, as you were once too, I was having, this is a great, you'll love this story. I was having breakfast with one of your producers. And I decided to put peanut butter in my oatmeal. We were eating in the ESPN cafeteria. Love it. And I like oatmeal, but I'm a big, like, protein dude in ways you can get it in smart ways. you know, this morning for breakfast, I had a piece of whole wheat toast with some hummus, a little bit of olive oil, a little sea salt.

And then I also had an apple with peanut butter. I love, you know, these plant proteins, right? I put the protein in. He goes, it's Colin Cowherd move right there. I go, what do you mean? He goes, he likes peanut butter in his oatmeal. I'm like, didn't know that. He goes, from now on, when you think about peanut butter with oatmeal, I want you to think

about Colin Cowherd. I swear to God. Yeah, true story. You know, there's a lot of true stories about us and we'll uncover more of those as we go, buddy. Who's us? Who's us? Okay, so the two you gave me was Carolina.

What was the other one you gave me I liked? You like the Falcons at minus six. You know what? I bet them once this year and I was right. I'm one and oh with them. All right, check it out, the volume sports. Go to our YouTube channel, click and subscribe also. You know, IG, rate review, subscribe.

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Listen to Superhuman on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down,

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A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it.

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