The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 'Sharp or Square' Wild Card Picks, 'Fake Q's, Real Answers" on Rodgers Mystery Texts, Big Ben & Brady

Episode Date: January 14, 2022

Colin does "Fake Questions, Real Answers" (3:00) on the blowback from his Aaron Rodgers text story, the Texans firing HC David Culley, the difference between Tom Brady and Big Ben, what Jim Harbaugh haters won't admit, and the athlete who deserves way more credit than he gets. Then, the Action Network's Chad Millman has a bone to pick with Colin about his MVP take (10:00) and tells Colin whether his Super Wild Card picks are "sharp" or "square". Hear their picks for Raiders/Bengals (16:00), Patriots/Bills (23:00), Eagles/Buccaneers (24:00), Niners/Cowboys (26:00), Steelers/Chiefs (28:00), and Cardinals/Rams (30:00).Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Sign up. Please use the promo code, Colin, so they know we sent you. Please use the promo code Colin, C-O-L-L-N. Fandul Sportsbook app, sign up. Hi, everybody. Sharpen Square with Chad Millman. We'll be coming up in 10 minutes, but first, fake questions, real answers,

every Friday morning podcast, stuff I want to talk about, but don't want to wait for you to ask me. Here we go. Dear Colin, hey, you got a little blowback for saying that you received a weird text about Aaron Rogers, just like Boomer Asiason did. What are you going to say? Well, I'm just telling you what happened.

Sorry if that makes you uncomfortable. Yes, I received a text several years ago from a number in Virginia that had bizarrely detailed information about the Packers and Aaron Rogers. I didn't say it was a fact that Aaron was behind it. I didn't say anybody in Green Bay was absolutely or definitively behind it. I said it was fishy as hell, especially once I got that boonrous size and stuff. First of all, if you want to blame somebody for spreading misinformation, how about Aaron Rogers? He's giving people medical advice and telling them to follow Dr. Joe Rogan. about vaccines. Aaron often wants the media to be more responsible. Yeah, yeah, I really liked your

vaccine hocus pocus. He's not really anybody to tell anybody who's responsible and irresponsible. Aaron is one of those guys that wants to see both sides of a story. Well, I'll give you my side. My side is, that was a weird text. Boomer got a weird text. They were both from the same state. I wanted to tell the story. All the anti-media people aren't really anti-media. Packer fans, you guys in the media, you're not anti-media. You're just anti-media you don't agree with, right? You think Rachel Maddow and that Russian Trump story's nonsense you don't trust her.

You're a conservative. And by the way, you liberals don't trust these conservatives because of what Tucker Carlson says every night. People only want media. agree with. Even liberals love Bill Marr until he sort of takes a moderate to conservative side. Then they go to Twitter and say, Mar's toast. I haven't watched him in 20 years. It's sort of like liberals do with Dave Chappelle. Now I'm suddenly supposed to believe he's not funny because of a joke he did that landed poorly to many people. Stop. You consume the media. It doesn't matter if you like it. Dear Colin, what do you make of the Houston Texans firing David Cully?

Well, he signed a two-year contract. And even though I think he deserved a second year, lots of relationships are stopgaps. Sometimes you date, sometimes you marry, sometimes you rent, sometimes you buy, sometimes you lease, sometimes you buy. We all have employment options where we don't plan on working in a company forever. David Cully, in my opinion, deserved a second year. I thought the Texans play hard despite very limited talent. I mean, hell, they beat the Chargers late in the season. But this was not a five-year contract.

He got a massive, massive payout to leave. Everybody understood it was a stopgap move because no elite candidates wanted it last year because of several reasons, one bad ownership and the other, the Deshawn Watson mess. But folks, this is the way life works. Anybody think Joe Biden's a two-term president? Do I think there should be more black coaches? Absolutely. Do I think it feels like African-American coaches have to prove themselves more?

Absolutely. I hated the Brian Flores firing. But in this instance, David Cully, we knew it going. in. This was a short contract. This was going to be a short-term solution to a big long-term problem. Dear Colin, how come Tom Brady looks great at 44 and big band looks done at 39? Well, successful people often know there's one thing more important than learning, and that's unlearning. The easy part's learning. It's getting rid of bad habits and bad ideas and pivoting to new stuff that's hard.

You've got to be self-critical. Tom Brady at 44 looks like a totally different person at 22. He's thinner. He looks better. Big Ben's 39 looks like a totally different person than 29 in a bad way. Ben's always reminded me of Brett Farve. Good old boys, lacked discipline, had mobility, took a lot of hits, kind of conservative, kind of stubborn, both didn't have nearly the same success late in their careers as they did early.

Football's always been from scheme to coaching to body a game of evolving. It's constantly changing. Even the rules are. It's not the bomb it out gunslinger league it used to be. The quarterbacks now that are crushing are more efficient. Want to have a 20-year career in the league? You've got to be willing to unlearn as much as learn. Dear Colin, what's something that fans do that to you is annoying and drives you nuts?

Well, fans always rip coaches and players that they would actually be thrilled to have on their team. Remember when T.O. planted the football on the Dallas Star and the cowboy fan said, what a jerk. And then he became a cowboy. And two hours later, he was their favorite player. This reminds me a Jim Harbaugh. How many Ohio State fans are there listening? Any of you in Chicago? You've been banging on Harbaugh for years at Michigan. wouldn't you take him as your head coach?

Oh, my bad. You're going to go with Brian Dayball, a coordinator who's never been a head coach, over a guy with a 65% winning percentage and a Super Bowl trip in Jim Harbaugh? It's like Jimmy Garoppolo. Everybody bangs on Jimmy Garoppolo. He has a career passer rating of almost 99, a career completion percentage of almost 68. You're a Washington fan, a Pittsburgh fan, a Denver fan. You wouldn't take him?

Be careful about bagging on coaches and players because you may be desperate and have a vacancy really soon at those positions. Dear Colin, lots of athletes are underrated and overrated. We know that. Give me an athlete in your opinion that doesn't get nearly as much credit as he should. I'll give you somebody, Eli Manning. Because his brother is Peyton, we immediately overlook him. but a quarterback is probably not going to look as great when you compare him to one of the greatest

quarterbacks of all time. It's like saying Janet Jackson was a disappointment because she wasn't Michael Jackson. Janet Jackson was a huge star for 20 years. Listen, the Giants were a mess before Eli, and now they're a mess. They were four and 12 in 2003. They draft him. By 2005, they're 11 and 5. By 2007, they win the Super Bowl. He's MVP. 2011, they do it again both times over Brady and Belichick. After the 2015 season, they get rid of Cofflin. In 2016, with Eli, they go 11 and 5, and it's all downhill from there. His last full season was 2018, for the record.

Eli had a passer rating that year of 92 and half. Do you know where that would be this year? Somewhere between Mack Jones and Josh Allen. Eli Manning has never gotten the credit he deserved. The giants were a disaster right before they drafted him and a disaster right after they bailed on him. His composure, his intelligence, his decency, his commitment, his leadership are one of the primary reasons. They've been a mess for all but the Eli years in the last 25 years. All right, I bring in my buddy, Chad Millman, sharp or square, I make my picks.

He takes them and pokes and prods them. So I hear that you listen to my radio show yesterday. What did you make of me, the orator, espousing theories and belief systems? What did you make of it? Listen, you know there are very few people who are a bigger fan of yours than I am. Blah, blah, blah, whatever. Maybe there might be no one else who is as talented in media as you are. Please go on.

This whole Tom Brady, you know, had a better. the conversation about the MVP. You were talking about Burrow, you're talking about Aaron Rogers, you're talking about Tom Brady. And your take, Tom Brady shouldn't really be in consideration because his roster was better.

That's idiotic. Like, the goal is to win as many games as possible to perform as well as you can and to take your team to the highest level. So your argument is that two years ago, Tom Brady took over a roster that was eight and eight with James Winston. And because he won them the Super Bowl,

all it's really doing is saying he was okay. He just had really good players behind him. Well, no, I didn't say he was okay. I said, if you're making me vote between Burrow, Rogers, and Brady, they're all absolutely candidates. I would vote for Burrow because he's overcoming more. He has a much, he has to face the Steelers defense, the Bengel or the Ravens defense and the Browns defense twice.

He wins the division with the worst offense. line in the playoffs. And we don't even know if Zach Taylor's a coach because he couldn't win before he got there, whereas we know fundamentally Green Bay is well run. I think you can vote for any of them. I was just saying, if you really want to count everything, Aaron Rogers missed the game against the Chiefs. Burrow played the Chiefs and out dual Mahomes. I could take that as one-tenth. Brady, I think, has a better roster top to bottom than Green Bay and Cincinnati. I really think Tampa's roster when healthy is the best roster in football. I mean, when Leonard Fernett and Gronk and I think it's the best roster in football.

So I don't care who anybody votes for. I'm just saying if we're going to go, here's what bothers me. If Aaron loses, it's going to be, oh, it's because of the vaccine stance. And I'm like, people. The two greatest years ever in league history for a quarterback, Peyton Manning had one, Brady one had one. Neither was a unanimous MVP. Like, it's inches, not feet on this stuff.

Yeah, exactly. I also thought, number one, I love how Barkish, who has come out and made all these statements about Aaron Rogers, gave me my very first job in journalism. I grew up outside Chicago. My end of my freshman year at Indiana University, I needed to get a job for the summer. I go back home. I wanted to work in journalism. I look in the phone book. I grew up in a town called Highland Park. I look in the phone book for, which is on the North Shore of Chicago, it's where all the John Hughes movies. movies were made for all like the old people like us, they'll recognize the reference. So I look in the phone book and I'm looking for sort of local media. And one of the lines for local media is pro football weekly, which was a national magazine, which I did not know, was located 10 minutes from my house in like a small office complex. I go there. I call. I'm like, hey, I go to Indiana University. I'm a freshman. I'm a journalism major. You guys got any internship opportunities. They say, why don't you come in when you get home?

So I go in. I interview and with Hub Barkish, who runs Pro Football Weekly. They give me a job on the spot, making $8 an hour as an editor. Wow. Because the editor, they had an editor who on that Friday had just quit to go cover the Bears for like a local school local newspaper. So I worked as an editor of Pro Football Weekly in my first job and Hub Barkish was my boss. I didn't like his reason for not voting for Aaron, but I don't have a problem if you don't vote for Aaron.

I just didn't like his reasoning. No, because he thinks he's a jerk. Yeah, didn't make sense. Also, you had a clip today, not to make this all about you on your podcast, you had a clip today about Kevin Durant saying we're not answering to the media. And as soon as he said it, I'm like, of course, there's no one angrier who drives more pleasure from doing well and then telling the media that he doesn't care about them than Kevin Durant. And then you said it, which means all he does is care about the media. Yeah. Aaron Rogers and Kevin Durant.

preach to us weekly. I don't care about the media. Meaning you care constantly about the media. It bothers you and we all get it. All right, here we go, sharper square. Raiders at the Bengals. I've gone back and forth on this. I would take the Raiders and the points and here's why.

I worry about the Bengals, offensive front. You can't correct it. They don't run the ball unless it's a necessity. They want to throw. They want to do deep drops and the Raiders have a pass rush. I think we're going to see points in that. this game. But the Bengals, I talked to Greg CoSell this week. He said, listen, the Bengals, not that they've given up on the run game, but they've identified what they are. They're a

big play down the field offense. Well, these two teams played earlier. They couldn't block the Raiders at all. So I just think the points is too many. It's like minus four and a half now. I think I take the Raiders and the points, although I think the Bengals win close, sharp or square? So it's totally sharp. I think you're getting the worst of the number. And for the record, I'm telling you it's sharp. I bet the Bengals at four and a half. And I think I'm on the opposite side of a lot of professional betters. You are 100% sharp here. So many trends, and we're going to talk about this with a lot of the games today. Favor NFL short underdogs on the road in the playoffs. Dogs are 15.5.5.5.5.5.5.5.5.

and three in Wild Card weekend, 10 and 8, straight up, road dogs, 14 and 2, 55% overall since 2003. The other numbers are since 2017. And the Raiders fit this bill, right? And a lot of Wise guys came in and they started betting on the Raiders when the line was a little bit higher. They bet it down to five and a half. They bet it down to five. Now it's down to four and a half.

you can find a lot of sort of similarities between these two teams, offensively and defensively sort of according to the advanced metrics. They're kind of in the same spot. And so it's a huge pros Joe's game, 80% of the money on the Raiders, majority of the bets and the Bengals. You're 100% on the right side. I'm just going to give you a different take that I favor the Bengals. A, you talk about Joe Burrell.

I just think he's the kind of guy who's a playmaker. And in this scenario, when the line is shrinking with a smaller number, it favors him late game, where I have a lot more faith in him than I do in the Raiders. And I'm also a little bit concerned for the Raiders. They had a massive overtime game. The defense played nearly 90 snaps. Late Sunday night. They've got...

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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball. basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

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Open your free, our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Turn around, play the first game on Saturday. It's a short week for them. We've seen them lose to bad teams. So that's why I like the bangles a little bit more. But I will tell you, again, you're on the right side. You're making the right call.

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And the best part, Direct TV Stream has no annual contract. DirectTV stream. Get your TV together at directTV.com. Requires high speed internet and compatible device. Content varies by package and location restriction supply. Patriots, I take them plus four against the bills. It's going to be five degrees, not snowing, slight wind. But that's going to hurt the offense. And it's obviously more skilled. That's the kind of weather. You drop passes in. It's five degrees. The bills are the better football team. New England's going to run the football, shorten the clock, give themselves a shot. I like that. I like. the fact that New England lost more recently to them and was kind of dominated. I think it's hard to beat Belichick back to back. I mean, Miami through the years has had average coaches that have split with them. It is hard. Brian Flores did it this year, beat him both times. It is a limited team against the good defense. But the bills are missing their top corner from earlier this year. I take the Patriots and the points, sharper square. Totally sharp. Another pros Joe's game. The wise guys are coming in on the Patriots.

and the public is coming in on the bills. So I mentioned some stats before about road, about underdogs in the playoffs. Yeah. Since 2017, NFL underdogs in the playoffs, 29 and 17. And this especially favors short underdogs. And so we've got two outliers and the Steelers and the Chiefs. I know we'll get to those. But the other games, like we're talking about short.

We weren't dogs. It's why you like the Raiders. It's why everybody likes the Patriots that is professional better. All right. I'm going to take the Eagles plus eight and a half at the Buccaneers. Now, here's the one thing that worries me. The bucks are a great red zone offense. They get touchdowns, not field goals. But I think the Eagles, Jalen Hertz is now healthy, are a handful to play. This is not your typical run offense. They lead the NFL in big plays, by the way. Big plays being 10-yard plus runs and 20-yard-plus passes. Tampa is beat up. They are a beat up football team. And the Eagles all year long, even against good defenses, have been bizarrely productive. I think Tampa wins. But an offense that was completely limited in the first round last year gave them trouble. I think the Eagles keep it close.

Weather's a non-factor. The healthier team is Philadelphia. I worry about Brady getting in the red zone. He gets sevens, not threes, and that could push the line higher and push the score higher. But I would take the Eagles, sharper square. Very sharp. Again, another huge pros Joe's game. 63% of the bets on the bucks, 58% of the money on the Eagles.

That tells you professionals are coming in on the Eagles. This line opened at 10. It got that down to eight and a half. bookmakers saw that was sort of the hard stop for professional better for professional betters when it got to eight and a half it went back up to nine and then went back down to eight and a half um one thing i will correct you on weather is expected to be a factor it could be very windy there could be thunderstorms the reason the professional better is like this game is they do expect it to be relatively low scoring they do expect the eagles to be pretty

conservative with Jalen Hertz in his first NFL playoff game. And they've just proven like, they're going to run the ball. That's what they like to do. And I think a lot of guys are saying, not only do we like the Eagles in the game, we're also going to bet the Eagles in the first half, because we've seen the Eagles play a very slow tempo. A lot of games for the Eagles, zero points, three points, seven points. So take a little taste on the Eagles in the first half, too. All right. This is the strangest one. I love the Niners all week. All week. Now, everybody loves the Niners. It's no longer an upset. So at three, I would probably take Dallas, sharper square. Square. So this was also on the radio today. You talked about, you want to bet

against Bob from Sheboygan. Yep. That's my theory. And you're using the 49ers as your example. Number one, as a Chicago in, northern Chicago and north shore of Chicago in the suburbs, I've been to Sheboygan a million times. It's beautiful in Sheboygan. You can't get a good bowl of soup in Sheboygan, I've been told. Oh, my God. Are you kidding me? It's like the soup capital of the Midwest. Of course you can get a good bowl of soup in Schauboigan. What are you going to do in Wisconsin other than get a good bowl of soup? My wife, when we lived in New York, we first started living in New York, I used to always say to her, I want to move back to Chicago. I want to move back to Chicago. She looks at me and she goes, listen, if I have the option between going to the

Hamptons for the summer or going to Sheboygan, why would I go back to Chicago? Jokes on her because I moved her to Central Connecticut. Now we can't get anywhere. But Sheboygan's great. Bob Sheboygan from Sheboygan is going to be on the Cowboys. The pros are going to be on the Niners. And you know, you talked about this with Cocell, right? You talked with Greg Cocell.

You talked about Greg Kittle being able to get open over the middle. George Kittle, yeah. About George Kittle, right? You talked about that, about Debo Samuel getting open, right? Like, this is where the 49ers will have an advantage. And then on defense, they can control the line of scrimmage because their rush defense is so good and they can make the Cowboys one dimensional, which is not great when Ezekiel Elliott has not been able to function very well as a running back. And DAC has struggled as a quarterback. So it's a coaching mish match. I think it's a personnel mismatch. I think the wise guys like the 49ers, what's scaring them is the very first thing you said. The wise guys don't like to be with public dogs. And the 49ers, are becoming a public dog. They are the team that everybody thinks

is going to cover against the Cowboys or potentially beat the Cowboys. So that's giving them a little bit of pause, but they're on the Niners. Steeders plus 12 and a half at the Chiefs. I've been saying Kansas City's offense is uneven. Pittsburgh, though, I'm not sure how they can move the ball. Mike Tomlin's a great underdog coach,

but I've got to tell you, Pittsburgh is painful offensively. and I have a feeling the chiefs went in a route. I know it's square, right? It's a little bit square, but not totally square. This is one where you're not going to get a consensus. The line has moved down a little bit, went from about 13 and a half to 12.5. So you know the professionals came in on the Steelers,

but everything you said is why guys are thinking about the chiefs. And I mentioned sort of the advantage and what the metrics, and the analytics say or the stats say about underdogs in the playoffs that are of less than a touchdown. More than a touchdown, they tend to cover. The favorites tend to cover. And this is a spot where the chiefs are 12 and a half. We know it's a rah-rah Mike Tomlin situation.

His defense is going to have to carry the cheerleading for this team. And I do think like the one thing they do really well is rush the passer. Patrick Mahomes knows how to handle the rush. This Chief's team could score 14 points and still cover the spread because the Steelers might not be able to score at all. Big Ben in the last three games, he was only his average completion went for 7.2 yards. I know. His yards per attempt were four.

Like he just looks washed. I think like he's holding it together with duct tape right now. Finally, I don't like this as a bet. I take the Cardinals plus four or now plus three and a half on Fandul at the Rams. I would take the Cardinals, not with any confidence. By the way, there's only two of these games I love. The Patriots plus the points. The Eagles plus the points.

And I could be talked into the Bingles if it got down to like four. I think that's a really strong play. I don't want to touch this, but I would say Cardinals plus three and a half four feels like the right side, Sharper Square. I mean, they face each other. McVey owns Cliff. So he owns him. Like Shanahan owns McMay, McVeigh owns Cliff Kingsbury. But I just think the Cardinals are the hardest team for me in the second half of the year to bet on because so much of their offense is based on ad-libbing by Kyler Murray. I don't feel like I have any control on any of the data. If he gets flushed out, he's often more dangerous than when he's in the pocket. So I find them really hard to bet on.

There's no, there's not a lot of certainties with their offense. Remember in the beginning of the year, we said by the end of the year, you're going to earn your sharp certificate. You just earned it. Boom! Because your analysis on this game is exactly how the wise guys are thinking. They don't love it. They know the Cardinals at plus four, plus three and a half of the right side.

They know that the Rams secondary is in such bad shape. They just signed Eric Weddle, who hasn't played since before COVID. They know that Matthew Stafford has been struggling mightily. His QB rating has dropped in the second half of the year. YPA yards per attempt is down. Interceptions have shot up. What did Akeep Taleb say on your podcast after the Stafford signing in the summer that other players in the league were saying,

Matthew Stafford? Like, nobody is afraid of him. Nobody was thinking it's an automatic Super Bowl trip for the Rams. Arizona's defense is sixth in DVOA, which is like the fancy way of saying their defense plays really well when you try to wait their schedule against the rest of the league.

It's really good defensively. They have outgained the Rams extensively in the two games they've played. So everything you're saying about wanting to take the Cardinals is right. But Cliff Kingsbury is a terrible coach come November, just awful. Like this team has been dreadful since the second half of the year started. One good game against the Cowboys against the Cowboys team with a bad coach that was struggling. You take the Cardinals and you hold your nose.

Yeah. I really like the Patriots. I really like the Eagles. and I should I wait on the Bengals until game time? You can. I mean, look, there's continuing, the money is continuing to come in.

I took the four and a half. So if you like the Bengals, take the four and a half. That would be my advice. Today, Fandul had the lowest number at four and a half. I don't know that it will get to four. I think it like for some games, if you're thinking about it, the Patriots might get interesting. Like as it gets closer, if you love the Patriots, it might get the four and a half by Sunday.

So you might want to stick around and wait. You might want to wait on that. But you're not wrong. Like the game, the wise guys have all circled is the Patriots. And they all love the bucks. I mean, they all love the Eagles. So your spidey sense is spot on. All right, buddy.

Can't wait. Talk soon. Talk to you. Chad Millman. Chief Content Officer, Action Network. Volume. If you love to be remembered as the person who gives the best birthday gifts, I'm here to tell you that 1-800flowers.com

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