The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Steelers/Browns TNF Reaction + 'Sharp or Square' Week 3 NFL Picks

Episode Date: September 23, 2022

Colin reacts to the Browns Thursday Night win against the Steelers, and why Pittsburgh needs to figure out their QB immediately. (3:00) Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 3 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Raiders/Titans (7:00), Commanders/Eagles (9:00), Jags/Chargers (10:00), Falcons/Seahawks (11:00), Cowboys/Giants (19:00), Niners/Broncos (21:00), Ravens/Patriots (25:00), and Colts/Chiefs (27:00), Bucs/Packers (29:00). Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #herd #volumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your

podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The volume. It's the Colin Coward podcast presented by Fandul. Football seasons here. No better place to get in on the action. FanDul app is safe. You get paid fast.

A lot of ways to play. The spread, the money line, team totals, players. props, a lot of stuff. Over-Unders. Jump into the action. Same game parles are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandual app today. So week three of the NFL kicks off with a stirring matchup between Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissette. As good as this rivalry is, and as good as these rosters are.

I mean, Nick Chubb is sensational. How about rookie George Pickett and that one-handed catch? Between these two rosters, even without TJ Watt, you have 7 to 10 elite players, pro-bowl level players. We talk about quarterback a lot on this podcast or on my radio show or TV show. This game was a great example why. You're talking about two really good GMs, I think two really good coaches, two significantly above average rosters,

and how dull was that game and how uninspiring was that game because your quarterbacks are average. And that's why when I see a team give up multiple first round picks, I mean, you can criticize the 49ers for giving up three first round picks for Trey Lance. But if he ends up being the starting quarterback and one of the 12 B plus and above quarterbacks in the league, what is he worth? I mean, just put a Josh Allen, a Mahomes, a Herbert, even a Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins with his Pittsburgh roster. Look at Cleveland. Deshawn Watson in a couple of months takes over. I mean, these are really good rosters, and your offense is completely limited. When you get a Trubisky or a Jacoby Brissette, there's simply one way to win. Low scoring, you're not going to come from behind.

You can't score quickly. and that's the reality of this league more so than ever. The only downside to having a league be so quarterback-centric now with the rules pivoting all offense is that if you don't have this quarterback, the league becomes a have-and-have-not league very quickly. In week two, last week, how many games had double-digit odds? 10, 11, 12-point favorites. That's very college feeling. I just don't remember when I started betting on the NFL, you'd have maybe one ugly line, a 12, 13 point spread per week.

We have four or five some weeks now because the league is so quarterback-centric. If you do not have, or if you do have a Jacoby Rosset or a Mitch Trubisky, you can just be, especially on the road, completely outclassed. And these are two good coaches, two good organizations, I think. And in terms of front office and drafting and scouting, Cleveland's done a great job the last two to three years. Andrew Barry really sharp. My sources love him. And obviously the Roonies and the front office of the Steelers for years has drafted elite pass rushers, elite receivers, elite running backs, elite quarterbacks, elite quarterbacks. And that was a showcase of mediocrity at quarterback.

So when a team rolls the dice and gets a team. gives up three firsts for a quarterback, I'm here for it. Even if the quarterback fails, you have to swing big. Because if you look at the Steelers history, from Bradshaw to Ben, it was a lot of Tommy Maddox and a lot of Bubby Brister. They've only won Super Bowls when they had Bradshaw or when they had Big Ben. And so I think Cleveland, by the end of the year, if they can sit around 500, slightly below, slightly above.

You get Deshawn Watson, cross your fingers that he comes in ready to play. They've got a chance because I really do like Cleveland's roster. They have all the elements. You know, they have an elite corner, an elite pass rusher, an elite back, a very good left tackle. Add to Sean Watson, those are the key positions. So congratulations on that story. during Thursday night matchup. It is a very odd weekend where I find myself, as you'll hear with Chad Millman,

betting and liking mediocre teams. I don't like betting on average quarterbacks and average teams, but that's what we have this week. Let's get the Chad Millman, C-C-O of the Action Network, Sharp or Square. Here we go. All right, time for another edition of Sharper Square. I had a very good week, four and one on my blazing five.

So let's get to the games I like a lot. Raiders and Titans are both struggling. Titans, though, at home getting points. I think I have a coaching advantage. Listen, they're not terribly explosive, but you don't have to be with the Raiders back end. I'm taking what I think is a better staff, more continuity on the staff.

They're at home. They're getting points. I would take the Titans here, Sharper Square. It's completely neutral. No joke. There is 50% of the money on the Raiders, 50% of the money on the Titans. I think in the end, I would be with you. It's interesting to me, how many times have you said to me,

you don't want to bet games, you don't want to watch? This is a corner TV game. And what that means is when you're at the sports book and the bookmakers know they have to put every game on television, this is the game they put on in the corner. It's going to have the fewest amount of bets. It's going to have the least amount of interest. It's going to have the least amount of passion. People kind of don't have a strong opinion on it. I think the Raiders are kind of injured. I think Derek Carr can't seem to make decisions in this new offense. I agree with you about the coaching advantage. I'm a huge Mike Rable fan. but from a sharp square perspective, there is zero sort of opinion to be had. You're kind of taking the home underdog, which is always the safe thing to do. You're taking a home underdog with a better coach.

But right now, this Titans team is not a very dynamic team. So for me personally, it would be a pass. I'm going to take the commanders plus six and a half at home against the Eagles. Eagles short week. The world's telling them how great they are. And the truth is, commanders did beat a Jacksonville team, which I think is actually pretty spunky. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but it's funny, the Colts can't move the chain since he left.

Maybe he wasn't the problem. I'm going to take in a division rivalry, six and a half points every day veteran coach, Sharper Square. The difference between how you sounded in the last bet and how you sound in this bet, it's like it's two different people. Of course this is the sharp play. You said all the key phrases. You're getting a division dog at a big number. You're getting a quarterback who probably will burn you at some point, but he's also a quarterback who has kept his team in games and in cover positions.

And I agree with you about the Jags. I think they're going to win the AFC South. I bet them before the season began at 8 to 1 to win the AFC South. And you've seen the Eagles team. That Kirk Cousins game, he gave it to the Eagles. The Eagles were giving Kirk Cousins every opportunity to stay in that game. I would be a little worried about the Eagles defense right now. And as you said, it's a classic buy low, sell high, right?

You're getting the Eagles coming off that prime time game, coming off a huge win. They are the team that everyone thinks is going to be dominant in the NFC right now. And the commanders, you know, they lost. They just lost. So it's the right spot. Like the Jags plus seven against the Chargers. First of all, I think they can move the ball. I talked to Greg CoSell today.

He said he already sees improvements from Urban to Doug Peterson at quarterback. The Christian Kirk dynamic is working. Justin Herbert is not practicing at full speed. They're a little banged up. Cole Lindley, the Pro Bowl center probably doesn't play. It feels like a lot of points. in a game that, I mean, the Chargers, I think, left some offense on the table against the Chiefs and the Raiders. Seven points is too much here.

They may go with Chase Daniel because it's a long season and not risk it. I like the Jags plus seven, sharper square. Yeah, this is totally sharp. 90% of the money, no joke. 90% of the money is coming in on the Jaguars. And it's not a small number of tickets either. Then the Jags, I thought they could have beaten the commanders in week one. They gave it away.

Then they played great in week two. They did what a lot of us expected them to do. When I came on the show last week, we talked about the Jags at four and a half. They did exactly what we thought they would do. With the Chargers, this is a really big number. I'm surprised at the value you're getting on the Jaguars right now, especially with the Herbert scenario. He's got four essentially broken ribs.

That's not easy to play through. So even if he is going to play, he's going to be hobbled. Jaguars are 100% the sharp side here. Yeah, Jags I thought were better than the commanders. Okay, this is an ugly corner game that nobody wants to watch, but I want to bet it. I'm going to take Atlanta plus one and a half at Seattle, yards per play rushing, Atlanta far superior.

Offensive lines. Seahawks start two rookie tackles. I'll take the Falcons. Yards passing per game. Marriota is absolutely better when healthy than Gino Smith. Advantage Atlanta. The better team, getting points. I think Gino's sort of a one-trick pony.

That first opening game, it was fantastic. They looked like a dud against the Niners. I know nobody wants to watch it. Doesn't mean I don't want to bet it. It's one of my favorites. Atlanta plus the point sharper score. All right. So you've hit on some really key points here. Number one, the Seahawks, the only time to bet them was in week one. We talked about this on the show. I begged you to take the Seahawks plus six against the Broncos. That was going to be the only spot. If you talk to professional betters right now, the way they are power rating teams. The Seahawks and the Bears are the two worst teams in the NFL. The Falcons are a team that they love. And you can see it in the line move here. This game, opened at three and a half with the Falcons as three and a half point underdogs on the road

at Seattle. The game is now down to one. It is moving fast pretty soon. The Falcons in some spots, it'll be pick. This game will probably have them going off as favorites. It'll be a huge swing. If you want to get the Falcons, get it now. There are some wise guys who will say to you, just bet the Falcons. They're the better team and they have loved the Falcons this year. The Falcons plus 10 against the Rams last week was a huge, huge. wise guy play. And they thought they left a lot of plays in the field. They really love this offense. They love the way it's so predicated on the run. So you were getting a lot of wise guy activity on the Falcons. And the wise guys will be on the Falcons a lot this year.

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1,800-800-8-8-777, or visit CCP.com. G.org slash chat, Connecticut, 1,800, gambler, or visit Fandul.com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Jersey, and Virginia. 1877770 stop in Louisiana. 1,800-2707-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1. Michigan, H-E-NY or text H-OPEENY 4-6-9-9-9-N-N-E-Rless .VICH. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball. basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at It Podcast. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed cracks. I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

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Okay, another slight underdog, Dallas getting a point at the Giants. and I think Dallas has better personnel. I think the story that Brian Dable is improving Daniel Jones is a nice story. I don't think it's a nice team, although I do think they have found in Andrew Thomas, their left tackle for the next decade. That's a great story. They have Kenny Gulliday issues now asking, why don't I get the ball? They could easily be 0 and 2.

They're 2 and 0. I think I get the better team. Cooper Rush isn't DAC, but he's playing at a level that's reasonably similar to DAC. I'm going to take the points in the Cowboys, Sharper Square. So it's completely split on this one. The line is moved in the Cowboys direction. I can't deny that. But the Giants have been a Wise Guy team since before the season began. The Wise guys were betting their season win total over. They bet them in game one. They bet them against the Panthers. This is a team that the wise guys have been backing all year long.

I think come Monday, you're going to start seeing money come in on the Giants. I personally am going to back the Giants here. It's too short of a home favorite in a division game in prime time. I don't agree with you about Cooper Rush at all. I don't think he is back level. We talked about this last week, right? You said you wanted to take the Bengals and I'm like, listen, the Cowboys at this number, which was plus eight and a half to plus seven,

Dak Prescott is not a quarterback who's worth the amount of points against the point spread that he had been given credit for in the way that line moved, but he's still better than Cooper Rush. And this number should not be moving in the direction of the Cowboys. What they do have statistically and in every other metric, Micah Parsons is just dominant. And I think if anything, you mentioned Andrew Thomas, like that could be the mitigating factor.

He will be the left tackle that Micah Parsons is going up against that is better than anybody else he has faced. So that'll be interesting to me. All right. Time for favor. Listen. I can admit when I'm wrong. San Francisco has such a coaching advantage.

I'm going to swallow one and a half against Denver. Hackett is lost. But here's the interesting thing. I'm going to throw my theory at you. is that there's a sense, never forget that Kyle Shanahan, many said privately wanted Mac Jones, knowing his athletic limitations. The Niners offense, which is now the Miami offense, is built for Tua and Garoppolo. They're Chris Paul, right? They're distributors.

They don't need Kobe Bryant. They don't need Michael Jordan running the show. That's Baltimore. Superhuman talent. Kansas City. This offense needs a quick distributor to get the ball in the hands of Brandon Ayuk, George Kittle, Debo Samuel. So whereas Garapolo and Tua are limited, there's an argument to be made. They are ideal for this offense, right? That's why there was some frustration publicly with Trey Lance. He waited too long. He wasn't as accurate. I think San Francisco

I think when they have Garoppolo starting, they're a pain in the arse to face. Major coaching advantage. I think the Niners go into Denver. I'll swallow the one and a half and beat the Broncos, sharper square. Yeah, this is a big, wise guy game right now. And it's for all those reasons you just said. It's so interesting, in the beginning of the year, people are high on Tray Lance. You don't necessarily know what you're going to get, but you're excited about what the ceiling

can be. And you kind of know what Jimmy Garoppolo is, right? You know that he's going to be accurate. He's in the short game. He's not going to be accurate in the long game. There will probably plays at some point in the game that you need him to make in high pressure situations late in the game that he won't make in games that really, really matter. NFC championship game, Super Bowl. During the regular season, this is a guy you bet on. And everyone now understands, this is a team that they can feel comfortable betting on as short road favorites. And Kyle Shannon through his career, he's better on the road than he is at home. And I think what we've seen with the Broncos, like Nathaniel Hackett, he is a little bit

underwater right now. And so he was 15 to 1 to be coach of the year when the season began. He is now at about 100 to 1 to be coach of the year. I think there are coaching issues there. He is learning how to be a head coach in real time. And Russell Wilson has not been the Russell Wilson that I certainly thought he would be. I thought the Broncos would have a chance to compete in this division. They do not.

One more favorite. People paid very little attention in the Miami Baltimore game, which I watched for a second time on Wednesday on the treadmill. Baltimore was the better team. Lamar was the better quarterback. But because of the way it ended in the fireworks show, Tua grabbed the headlines. Lamar Jackson's very good. Outplayed Tua for 75% of the game.

It was rookie defensive backs that made Tua look like, you know, Joe Montana. Baltimore is a really good football team. The New England Patriots have real limitations. What their weakness is is what the Ravens weakness is. You can beat the Ravens over the top. Patriots don't throw over the top. I'm going to swallow the two and a half. I think Baltimore's an elite team, Sharper Square.

This has been a fascinating game. And we talked a lot about this on the favorites podcast today. We do this segment called Sharp Calls, where we'll do the podcast on Tuesday. And then on Thursday, we will review the calls that we have gotten from professional betters who listen to the podcast and will have opinions on the games that we talked about. We talked a lot about the Ravens and the Patriots. on Tuesday, got the most sharp calls about the Ravens and the Patriots for today. Thursday.

The Pats plus three is the side everybody is coming in on. I think the problem with the Ravens, and I agree with you, like I was concerned, am I letting the second half collapse of the Ravens influence my thinking on this game? Am I letting a recency bias influence how I want to bet on this game? The truth of the matter is, you mentioned the Ravens defensive back issues. They have a lot of issues. And they also, more importantly, cannot run the ball. And so what you're getting is a team that's going on the road

and is now expected to be a road favorite against a team and the Patriots that when Matt Jones plays, they are a serviceable team. When he's healthy, they are a serviceable team. So I think the wise guys are starting to see a little bit of an advantage here at the Patriots plus three. You saw it come down a little bit to two and a half. I would not be surprised if now that the line is so much higher because it opened a pick. So what we're doing here is playing in numbers, right? And when it gets so high and a home underdog as a field goal gets to that number, a team like the Patriots, the wise guys start buying back. Okay. Now it's time where you tell me,

what is your favorite pick that I have not discussed? We have a lot of agreement as I get sharper and sharper with age. I'm like a good cheddar. I just get sharper and sharper with age. Where did I miss? Where did I whiff? Where did I, where was I distracted? What pick do you like?

No one has ever accused you of being cheesy. So that's an interesting analogy you're going for there. Colts plus five and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. I'll tell you right now. This game opened at seven. The Kansas City Chiefs look like world beaters. You could say, Buffalo Bill's number one, Kansas City Chiefs number two. Indianapolis Colts look like they are really, really terrible.

Matt Ryan can't find his way down the field. Frank Reich, again, coaching a team that gets off to very, very bad starts. The Colts got blown out and shut out by the Jaguars. Now we have the Colts in their home opener. They're Owen 2. This is the time to respond to the overreaction in a negative way to the Colts. You should have Pittman back a wide receiver. You should have Leonard back at linebacker.

A winless home team facing a team with at least one win in the past 20 years covers it a 60% clip. week three home dogs that have lost at least once against the spread that open the game under a touchdown underdog, which the Colts did. 64% against the spread. Every trend here looks to the Colts. The market looks to the Colts. We've seen the line drop from six and a half to five and a half.

You got to back the Colts. You got to hold your nose. You got to back the Colts. You got to believe that, that everything you saw last Sunday is going to be true this Sunday, whether what you saw was good or what you saw was bad. Finally, who do the sharps like on Tampa Green Bay? I'm just interested in how they view that. Tampa. Fully on Tampa. And I think that what you're seeing here is you got a Hall of Fame

quarterback on one side. You got a Hall of Fame quarterback on the other side. You got good running backs on one side. You've got good running backs on the other side. You have inconsistency to unknown to receivers that you can't really trust on both sides. So what's the biggest delta here? The delta is the Buccaneers defense. They know how to pressure Aaron Rogers. They blitz him up to 40% of the time when they have played him. They have been effective.

But most importantly, their defensive backs are just better. And so you're getting a very short home dog. This line is one, one and a half in some places. So the wise guys are going to pile in on the home team and the short dog with the better defense. Chad Millman Action Network. I'm off to kind of a toasty start, and I don't mind saying that's not my history. I am usually somebody who starts rough in week one and has to recover. It's a wonky week.

I really like the Niners. I really like the Falcons. I really like the commanders. After that, I can be talked in and out of stuff. Milman, great seeing you. All right, brother. See you later. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green Show.

I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. Get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

On The Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.