The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Derek Carr, MSU Coaching Opening, Sharp Or Square

Episode Date: October 20, 2023

Colin reacts to the Jaguars road win over the Saints on Thursday Night Football  He explains why Derek Carr is not the franchise quarterback the Saints were looking for, and addresses the rumors of big coaching names linked to the Michigan State job… and why those coaches won’t be going to Lansing.  Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 7 NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #Herd See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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So, you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight, Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week. Bad knee. Facing a better defense, Saints, than Derek Carr faces in the Jacks. He's on the road. One of the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the big mistake.

doesn't have a pick-sakes, a very tidy 20 for 29, 204 yards rushing, and a touchdown on the road against the better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's not having to play great. It's just making enough plays to win a road game when you don't practice all week. Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara, arguably the best player in the game. Alave. Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's line. A less efficient, 33 of 55, a pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara, 17 carries and 12 catches.

Think about that. 29 times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs. The life of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr, but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he was almost a sympathetic figure, right? Weird ownership, kooky organization, Al Davis, into his son. And so when you watched him, team had to move to Vegas. when you watched Derek Carr, he was almost a sympathetic figure.

You know, if he could only get a good defense, a star back, a couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group, a weaker conference, oh, wait, a weaker division, oh, wait, he got all of them with the Saints. And it feels like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division, Noma Holmes, Herbert twice a year. weaker conference, better defense, more functional ownership, one of the top GMs, Mickey Loomis in the league, two-star receivers, starback, and at least a good run-blocking line. I don't know if they're a good past blocking line, the Saints, but a pretty good run-blocking line. And he's at home facing a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago, Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about the 12th best quarterback in the league. He's around that Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But what's happened is

Derek's not in his prime. He's just out of it. And the league's gotten better at quarterback. There's just five or six guys that weren't around five years ago. And if you right now look at the top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes, Alan, Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Stafford, Hertz, Trevor Lawrence, Goff, Aaron Rogers, I'll put in there too. Those are 10. I would take Kyler Murray, DAC, and Tua above Derek Carr, and I watched him play against C.J. Stroud last week, and I thought C.J. Stroud was a better distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played with more confidence. So now he's the 15th best quarterback Derek Carr in the league, and he got the bag, which is going to limit for the next couple of years what the Saints can do in

free agency. And I was talking about this on FS1. today. If you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannahill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, ask yourself this, would at least half the league, and preferably over half the league, make a call on them? No for Garoppolo, Tannahill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek Carr had a market of about three teams. That's it. and Herbert would have 22, Allen would have 28. Mahomes would have everybody except Kansas City, make a call. Right, that's the difference.

The market tells you how good your quarterback is. It's what I've said about Tua. Tua's market would be about six, seven teams. Let's say I'm wrong. Double it to 12. It's still not enough. You got 10 bad quarterbacks in the league and 10 OK quarterbacks in the league. Right?

And then 10 to 12 guys, we kind of like, and really about 6. we love. Maybe seven. So, I mean, that's the mistake the Saints made. Now, they were a little desperate. Taysam Hill doesn't feel like a franchise guy, James Winston, Drew Brees left, so Sean Payton left. So you're looking for some stability with Derek Carr. And I like him. But right now I feel like he's about the 15th best quarterback in the league, losing at home to a quarterback that didn't practice with a better defense, the best player on the field, probably Alvin Kamara, Lave, Michael Thomas. and had one great drive. It's not being critical,

just being honest about it. So when you look at the Saints now, you know, there's going to be a lot of decisions in this league. Do you pay a guy or not? People in Chicago are backing Justin Fields would over half the league call on Justin Fields. Absolutely not. But he's probably not the guy, right?

Doesn't mean he doesn't have talent. And I think there would be four or five teams that would call on Justin Fields today. Maybe six, maybe eight. But look at it. If it's not, over half the league last 10 years, you're probably spending too much money on that quarterback. And that's how I feel about the Saints and Derek Carr.

So there's been this story, a rumor out there about the Michigan State job. Now, Michigan State Athletics between the Mel Tucker mess and another coach in their organization that did some criminal things. The brand's gross right now. And so there's been talk about like, you know, what early? Urban Meyer go to Michigan State. And the most attractive thing about Michigan State football is that the word Michigan is in it, right? That's how big the Wolverines brand is. So as the Pac-12's four best football programs, four of five, Utah is better than UCLA, but I would say USC, Washington, Oregon, historically, those are the best last 20 years programs in that conference are joining the Big Ten conference. So Michigan State is not. not Ohio State, it's not Michigan, it's not Penn State. It's not Oregon. Go look at their last 20 years. Washington, who is a top 10 program every time they get the right coach, and it's not USC with six or seven

national titles. You can argue it's UCLA. I don't think it is, but it's an argument. Nick Saban couldn't win at Michigan State. Chris Peterson, Don James, Rick Newheisel, and the current Huskies coach, Kaelin Nabour winning big at Washington. So it's not Washington. So at best, it would be the seventh best program of the Big Ten, and I would take the Wisconsin job over Michigan State, just because right now I wouldn't mind if I was a coach attaching my brand to Wisconsin's cleaner brand.

That makes it the eighth best job, at best, in the Big Ten. I don't have this sourced, but why in the world would Urban Meyer, who has paid over $40 million to not coach the Jaguars, leave Sarasota, Florida for that. I wouldn't. I think that would be, if you're his agent and recommended that, you get a new agent.

He may take the job, money talks, somebody offers him $100 million. But when I hear rumors about that, I think to myself, the best part about Michigan State is the word Michigan's in it. General rule, don't take the Auburn job, take the Alabama job, right? Don't take the UCLA football job. take the USC job. Don't take the Oklahoma State job. Take the Oklahoma job. Take big brother, not little brother. All right, Chad Millman comes on a lot to talk about. A lot of different things to talk about. The NFL season, it's going strong and drafting sportsbook, hooking new customers up

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10. pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball

to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now, I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

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Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics

from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wong, on the ice planet hot or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Time for another edition, Sharper Square. It's the CCO of the Action Network, Chad Millman, my buddy, all odds provided by Draft King. So Warren Sharp sent me something over the week that was really fascinating. Underdogs are not doing well this year. And Warren Sharp,

not only theorizes, but indicates that the holding calls defensively have gone down sharply. And so when you look at the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's just understood. It was not three years ago. That was, we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now you can do it while the ball's in the air if it's not, you know, lurching at the player and disrupting him. And so what does that mean? My theory is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month. So the Tanna Hills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap between starters and stars and backups,

Tannahill and Mahomes now, five years ago, you could be competitive. The gap now between Daniel Jones and Mahomes, it's like junior varsity varsity. underdogs are not covering. The best quarterback, if Baker is better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads already, leads in seven divisions. The exception is Brock Purdy. He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than Arizona's backup and arguably better than Gino Smith. So my point being is I've always been a fan of underdogs. But increasingly this year, my winning bets are on superior quarterbacks covering. And Warren Sharp Deacon. tailing. No, this is really hurting. Scoring's down, but there are more blowouts in two years than we've ever had, and the scoring is declining even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look at my bets this week, and I think I wouldn't have made these bets a year ago, but I'll throw one at you. Ravens minus three at home against the Lions. So I watched Baltimore. I thought their first half against Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season by a

quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular. Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak. They've won on the road. This is a whole different ball game. Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I still think the Ravens, I told you last week, it was my favorite bet, are undervalued. So again, plus three Detroit hot would have been my pick. I'm going to go Baltimore minus three, sharper square. So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of, I think Warren's sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting, but you could also argue that teams that are underdogs aren't covering, not because there's holding calls, but because quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend.

How many downfield throws that could have made a difference did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have made a huge difference did Justin Herbert? miss. I think there's a combination of a lot of things that are impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort of factors that are not repeatable. Some of them are regression. Some of them are things that are going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably. And sacks are up, by the way. So, so medial for quarterbacks with pressure and holding, defensive holding, like the sacks are way up. So if you can escape it, you're okay. Hey, this year, I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards per completion is something like 10.6. It's amongst the lowest in the modern era of the NFL. So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are leveling out, which probably means when the competition committee meets in the spring, they will figure out a way to make it easier for offenses to score the football, you know? But to your point about the Ravens, yeah.

Yeah, it's the sharp side. The line opened at two and a half. Everybody believes the lions are way overvalued. You're talking about a team that was 11 to 1 to win the NFC before the season began. They're now down to 6 to 1, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take a look for a second at who the lions have beaten, right? The Panthers, the Bucks. They have not beaten very good teams, the Packers. And meanwhile, the Ravens, A, they scored 28 points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on. Like, they've been red zone inefficient in certain games. That game against the Steelers, they should have won. We talked about this last week. A lot of drop passes that would have made the difference and put the game away. He's actually playing really well.

And Lamar, when he is a short favorite, is actually very, very good against the spread. Bigger favorite, not so much, short favorite. I like it. Wise guys like it. You're sharp. All right, Browns minus two and a half. It is a staggeringly good defense. And I think San Francisco's settling for field goals should have made them but missed them. And this is a team that is loaded with weapons, a brilliant head coach. Now, yes, it's on the road. But backup quarterbacks are backups for a reason. I said this last week. You know, Gardner Minshu, the analytics said take the Colts against, right, the Jags. The better quarterback at home. So I don't love the quarterback situation for Cleveland. I do not trust a backup quarterback against this defense. I think Cleveland's for real. I may be disgusted by Deshawn Watson.

He still may play. But if this is three, I pass at two and a half, this is a playoff-level elite defense. I'd take it Sharper Square. A little trappy, Colin. Here's the challenge. I agree with you about Gardner-Binshoe. When I was taking notes on the games last weekend, one of the the notes that I took was have the shoes fallen off. Is Cinderella no longer Cinderella in Gardner Minchew? Because in the games that he had been playing for Anthony Richardson, he had been winning, he had been covering. He had been playing unlike Gardner Minchu, who had gone winless for so long. Last week, a lot of bad turnovers, turnovers that took them out of that game from the very beginning. Meanwhile, you got the Browns. At home, backup quarterback, they just,

just beat the team that everybody thought was the best team in the NFL that had just beaten up on the cowboys in an embarrassing fashion that catapulted Brock Purdy to be seven to one to win the MVP in the NFL. That's overvalue city, man, versus a team at home that is entirely undervalued because of how badly they played and because of Gardner Minshu. Honestly, for me, it's a pass. Like, I want nothing to do with this game. So if you want to play it, buyer beware. Eagles minus two and a half another favorite hosting Miami. I think Miami I've got a pretty good read. They're a heavyweight with a glass chin. If you punch them back, can get a rush with four, they fold pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play.

That's a more comfortable quarterback against a less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But if you look at their defensive front for Miami and the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be ball control dominant. I'm going to take, for the record, Philadelphia, night game. at home. Watch the Phillies games lately? Like, it's just different. I'm going to take Eagles minus two and a half sharper square. Totally sharp. The truth is, this line opened at one and a half and moved up to two. Now it's a two and a half. It is a pros Joe's game, right? The wise guys are 100%

on the Eagles, the Joe's, the amateurs, the squares, they're on the dolphins. And you mentioned a couple, you mentioned two things that are really important here. One, Lane Johnson. If he plays, this is a significantly different team. When he doesn't, I think they're 10 and 22 without Lane Johnson. And when he plays, they're a Super Bowl caliber team. Two, Jalen Hertz, against pressure, not so good. Jalen hurts when he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him more than 40% of the time, I think he's 20 and 5 in his career.

So you're talking about a Miami-Dalches team that is not great at pressuring the quarterback, and you're talking about an Eagles team that is coming off a loss that, they were headed for. You and I have talked about this. Like, the Eagles have been winning because they have a really good head coach. They have a really good quarterback. They have really good weapons on the edges. But they haven't been jelling offensively at all. And also, last week, Jalen Carter didn't play, right? He was resting. So this week, he shouldn't be back on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like, okay, we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets. We are, understand better now what we need to do. We're going to come back because that's who we are. The wise guys are on the Eagles. One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue. 49ers off a loss are a really good football team. Minnesota's not. I don't think it's a great locker room. I don't think they create. I don't think they

pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will control the ball. At some point, if you do something five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky. It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is very good. I think quietly in the building, they're moving off cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't think it's, I just don't, I don't love this team. I'm going to take the Niners minus six and a half sharper square. You are who your record says you are. Didn't some brilliant coach say, that one. Bill Parcells. And the Vikings are not a very good football team. They weren't very good last week against a terrible team. And the Bears, the only reason they won that game is because

a second string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came in off the bench, fumbled, scoop and score for the Vikings. That was the difference in the game. Otherwise, the Bears with a backup quarterback win that game, right? And so this has been the sentiment on the Vikings all year. People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect. them to win at the rate they did last year. There was going to be regression because of how many one-score games they won. This line has moved up from six and a half.

It's at seven. The wise guys are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but in this case, they are aligned with you. All right, here's my one dog. I don't love the slate this week for dogs. Chargers plus five and a half at Kansas City. Listen, they're in close games. They're a good team.

I don't love them situationally. if it's close, I'll take Andy Reid. But I think their personnel matches up very well with Kansas City. It has with Anthony Lynn. It has with Brandon Staley. This feels like kind of a gimmy. I don't ever love the Chiefs as a favorite. They're not a high firepower team.

Now, they did get their receiver back from the Jets, but it'll take probably a couple of weeks to get him, right, situated. I'm going to take the Chargers plus five and a half, sharper square. Totally sharp. And look, this is one of those games that's really interesting, right? because you're talking about it from multiple levels. Are you talking about what you're seeing on the field? Check, you're going to take the chargers.

Are you talking about what you see historically between these two teams? Check, you're going to take the chargers. Are you talking about what you would see between two teams in the division? Check, you're going to take the chargers? Are you talking about what you would see from Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points? Check, you're going to take the chargers. So let's start at the beginning, what you're seeing on the field. Justin Herbert has lost games by six or more points three times in the past 23 games.

He keeps the games close. Their disadvantage is they have a terrible coach who does not put them in a winning position and makes the most inconsistent, awful decisions at the worst possible time for this team to win. He just does, right? So you've got that moving against them. But it's also the talent is so good between what they have in the edges, what they have defensively, what they have in Justin Herber, they can stay in games. Two, the games between these two teams are always close, right?

Justin Herbert has never not covered a six-point spread. There was one push because they went to overtime and they lost by six points in overtime. So it's a great matchup for these two teams. The Chiefs' offense has not been jelling. Patrick Mulhams has not found the right rhythm with those receivers yet. And then you're talking about teams in the division in this scenario over the past 20 years, underdogs have covered 60 there, 60 games above 500, covering a number like this in the division. Meanwhile, the home team covers at a 47% rate in this position when they are favorites.

When they are favorites of three or more, it moves down to 44%. And finally, Mahomes, as a favorite of three and a half or more, is far below 500 because oftentimes when he's a favorite, he's a favorite of so many points, it's an impossible number to cover. So in every way, whether it's a trend, whether it's on the field, whether it's a system, the wise guys like the Chargers. Okay. Now I ask you for a game to convince me and then a game I missed. Green Bay, Denver's fascinating. Aaron Jones comes back. I feel like there are limitations to Jordan Love, but it's a good locker room. It's full of hope. I have a lot of continuity with Denver. I don't know what the identity is. I don't know. like the locker room. I don't think they do anything well. I do think the Packers do some things

well. I would tend to lean all of our odds provided by Draft Kings. It's a, it's, I don't know, what is it now? Minus 1, Green Bay. Is Green Bay plus one minus one? I would lean down to minus one. Okay. I would lean Green Bay. What's sharper square? The wise guys are on the Broncos. This game opened to two. It's moved down to one. It's ugly. They don't love the Broncos. but look, their defense played a little bit better against the Chiefs. The bigger challenge is, should Jordan Love as a rookie who's played, what, five games as a starter consecutively, who looked good at the first couple games, but has really been missing a lot of open targets.

And as much as Matt LaFleure is scheming to get him open targets, if you can't hit the targets, then you can't cover the game. So now he's going on the road as a favorite. it, there couldn't be less interest. There couldn't be a team more undervalued than the Broncos. Because while Sean Payton has been making Russell Wilson look brilliant in the first couple of drives of every game, he kind of craters after that. So a lot of fading of Russell Wilson.

I think the biggest fear the wise guys have in betting the Broncos, which is the side they're betting, is from now through the end of the year, are they just going to tank? Are they getting tank and try to get Caleb Williams and compete? with the Bears or the Panthers for that number one overall pick, which the Bears get the Panthers, by the way. Because he's got to look at this team and realize we don't have any talent. Our receivers can't get separation. Our quarterback can barely get plays called.

He doesn't know what he's doing to get the ball deep. Like it's a pretty nasty situation there, but they're taking the Broncos. And finally, an ugly game, a game I missed, a game that you really have a strong opinion about or feeling about, but I just didn't discuss. Oh my God, Colin. Remember last week, I'm like, do me a favor.

You want to win, take the Jets plus seven against the Eagles. No, no, no. That wasn't ugly. That was the one blazing five. I should have gone three and two. I went two and three. I liked that bet. I didn't take it.

It was my last bet. The Jets, the last two weeks against the Broncos and Eagles was my last bet out. So I like the Jets back-to-back week. So that was a good pick and made a lot of sense. I also wanted you to take the Browns. which was a better pick and made a lot of sense and won. So here's what I'm going to ask you to do. I'm not the kind of guy, Colin,

who roves people's nose in their mistakes. That's not what I do, okay? Here's what I want you to consider. Can I interest you in the New York Giants, plus two, plus two and a half, hosting the Washington commanders? So consider what I just said about the Chargers, in the Chiefs and the underdogs

historically being the advantage in that situation. And then consider Tyrod Taylor, who by the way, has one of the lowest interception percentages based on the number of games minimum attempts that he's at. He doesn't throw picks. Of anybody in NFL history. And then

account for the fact that the offensive line played a little bit better and the defense played a little bit better against the bills. Right? So now all of a sudden, you've got a Washington team that really they should have lost to Atlanta. Like, were outplayed in every respect in that game. And to me, there's a two-pronged thing here. One, I kind of like Atlanta as an underdog against Tampa for all the same intra-divisional

reasons that I've talked about. And also, I think they were incredibly unlucky in that game with some regression coming because Desmond Ritter made so many mistakes. But also, that highlighted Washington and made them overvalued. Look, they've won some games, but they haven't won well. They haven't been good. They lost to the bears by 20 points. So I don't know. I think the giants are going to be the side that the wise guys like this week. I thought most of the lines, like I think Seattle hosting the Cardinals, I thought initially, if it was six and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people have figured out Arizona. So if Blazing Five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now the number is not good. My question is, if it's seven,

seven do you take Seattle? Seven and a half you don't. Seven do you? No, no, no, I agree with you. And I think what happened with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella story where the shine has come off a little bit. And people don't figure that out. Right. And honestly, the biggest challenge for them, they lost James Connor. Like, he was bull rushing over everybody, right? And he was really powering their offense. And without him, they really don't have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me, seven is a pass. If you could have gotten it at six and a half, you know, know, like you could still get San Francisco. If you can get it at six and a half, I think those are the two sort of bigger favorites.

The other game that's really interesting. And this one is like, remember for years, we've been doing segments like this together. And every year, I'm telling you, you got to take the Jags when they were terrible. They're plus 13 and a half on the road. You got to take the Jags. That's what the wise guys are going to do. The New England Patriots have become the Jags. I can't. I told you, I can't. When I can't watch a team, I can't bet them.

So you can watch the Green Bay Denver game? Fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. Fascinated. And is Jordan Love going to make it or not? I mean, if Jordan Love is a lousy Sunday, we have to be honest here. Sitting for three years, completing 55% of his throws with Matt Lefleur. If he can't move the ball, we got a white flag thing here. Like, you can't. Keep defending him. So that game's got a lot. Like, we know Russell's not going to last. But if Jordan loves struggles, you cannot sit there. By the way, C.J. Stroud.

No offensive linemen can't run. Rookie play culver, rookie coach. Game one, good. You can't be in a place four years and complete 55% of your throws. I don't want to hear about Christian Watson's not available. Give me a break. So, I mean, I think that game is actually, whatever the word is, the French word for so ugly, it's attractive, that's Green Bay, Bennery.

You know what's interesting. So I come from a startup culture with Action Network, right? You're building a really valuable, strong, incredible business with the volume. Yeah. If you're in a venture-backed business, one of the best phrases I ever heard, some of the folks who helped to, who bankrolled action when we started, is, are you being intellectually honest about what you're looking at. Meaning, can you look at the data?

Can you make a decision, not based on what you want it to be, not based on what you think it could be if X factors hadn't impacted the numbers? It's like, can you look at the numbers? Can you say, okay, this is what's happening, and then can you make decisions about the business going forward based on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how you got to that point

or if it's going against what you believed it should be, same goes if it's going well. Like, can you be intellectually honest about examining what you see in front of you? Can the Packers be intellectually honest about Jordan Love if he continues to be a 55% completion rate pastor who misses open looks? Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, my favorite saying, by the way, you mentioned your favorite saying. It was so funny. Somebody the other day, I have a plaque in my office. And they saw the plaque and they got all excited.

the like orders you get that. Amateurs chase the sun and get burned. Power stays in the shadows. That the smartest people are strategic. The amateurs want to get noticed and get headlines. The smart people do all their business behind the scenes. And I don't know why I brought that apropos of nothing. I do think Green Bay, they're decent people. And, the problem sometimes, you know, there's a reason there's a lot of money in New York and in Wall Street and in tech world. People are harsh and they're brutal. And I don't think the Steelers could move off Kenny Pickett for three years because he's a Pittsburgh kid because it's the decency of the Rooney's. And I think Green Bay is going to stick with Jordan Love because that's what good people do. They give young people a chance. And I think Pittsburgh and Green Bay, this solid, uh, foundational. They're always looking for value. They're the guy at a nightclub wearing dockers. They're not cool. But they're probably the richest guy in the room. And I don't think the Steelers can be honest about Kenny Pickett. And I don't think the Packers for a year or two.

And by the way, if I'm both, I'm drafted a quarterback this year, not first or second, third round quarterback. I just want somebody in the room to compete with them. There's plenty of talent. But I do think sometimes what's hurt Green Bay in Pittsburgh is this unwillingness to just be harsh. And harsh in our businesses, sometimes it works. Like, I've got to make a horribly hard decision. You're fired. It sucks. But sometimes it's what's needed in professional football. Like Bill Belichick, Bill will build your statue. You're tone deaf. We got to get off Bill Belichick. That seems incredibly hard. But Philadelphia fired Andy Reid. The Cowboys fired Tom Landry.

You know what? Both the Eagles and the Cowboys did just fine. And we both love Andy Reed. So I think the Jordan Love question is, do they have the stomach for it? I don't know if they do. It's a hard question to answer. And after five games of data, nobody is going to be ready to do that. After, you know, 12 games of data with Kenny Pickett, nobody is going to be ready to do it.

But I think you can do it after a season. That's when you start to get a full data set, right? When we talk about betting, all of the data I give you is going to be based on a dataset of at least 100 games. You need to have like a full picture to understand, is it a trend? Is it something that someone can overcome? is it something that people were overperforming? Like, what were the factors, right? And then all of a sudden, you have the full data set,

and you've got a much cleaner look at what the real pattern is. And you know if someone's going to change it or not. And so then you've got to ask yourself, with someone like Jordan Love, what was the missing factor? You know, we've talked about this before. Jalen Hertz and Year 1 was good, but there were questions about how good of a full quarterback he could be, how good of a passer he could be.

Year two, you get A.J. Brown. You get Devante Smith comes along. If you're a quarterback, you need to have weapons you believe in. You need to have weapons who can make you look better. You need to have weapons that you feel comfortable throwing a 50-50 ball. Same thing with Josh Allen is Stefan Dix. Josh Allen, his first couple of years, was not nearly as good as he was when he got Stefan Dix. Right?

And not all of a sudden his game changed. I think there was hope that Justin Fields would be that with DJ Moore. I think the patterns are going to have these questions about Jordan Love if he doesn't get a full season of Christian Watson being a number one caliber receiver, they're going to have to make a call. Do we have to get a receiver? Is Jordan love someone that we believe can grow into being a great quarterback? By the way, you like the Bears this week?

Well, of course I do. I mean, it's a wise guy spy. You know, I was funny. I was talking with my co-host Simon Hunter on the favorites this morning. And I had told him on Tuesday, I feel like the wise guys are going to be on the bears. And then on Thursday, we always do this segment called Sharp Calls. And we're like, the wise guys are giving us feedback on what we talked about on Tuesday.

And they all liked the bears. And it's a lot of the same principles we've been talking about, right? The bears are undervalued. They're a terrible team. Meanwhile, you got the Raiders coming in. Should the Raiders be three-point favorites against anybody? Right? They weren't even three-point favorites at home against the Packer.

against the Patriots and all of a sudden they're going on the road. They're a badly coached team with a backup quarterback who's been in the lead for 15 years. Like this is not a scenario where they should be a field goal or more favorite. So yeah, why these guys are going to be on the Bears? As always, Chad Millman, it's good to seeing you. Always a pleasure, brother. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite on humor me, with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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