The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Eagles Sustainability, Vikings, Sharp Or Square
Episode Date: September 15, 2023Colin reacts to the Eagles win over the Vikings on Thursday Night Football. He identifies the Eagles’ strength that will allow them to sustain success on a weekly basis and makes a prediction for ho...w the Vikings will draft based on the result. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, also joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square”, and gives the sharpest advice on how to bet the upcoming NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody. Welcome in to the Thursday night, Friday morning podcast, Chad Milman Sharp or Square coming up. I know you love that. I had a rough week. Looking to bounce back. I love my picks this week. I loved them last week. What can I say? I know a lot of people, you know, you watch Philadelphia tonight and it wasn't the most appealing game, but I'm a big believer in sustainability. Like, can you do things and repeat things over and over? You know, always making.
a lot of money in your life and having a great job is not usually sustainable. Living below your
means, investing, being frugal, spend less than you make is sustainable. I tell my kids that all the
time. Just get into patterns, be prepared for bad times. And so when they hit, you don't have to
change your lifestyle. And Philadelphia, the way they won tonight dominating the line of scrimmage,
that's sustainable for 16 weeks, 15 weeks. That's a great offensive line. Getting
over-the-top plays. Some teams, the smart teams, like New England, just took that away.
They just don't want you go over the top. Track meet teams. Miami tends to be the dolphins looks
like a little bit of a track-meat team. Now, their games are wildly entertaining against the
Chargers. You're not going to get that every week. That's not sustainable, right? Like Tyree
Kill, banged up, Jalen Waddle out. You face a team with good pressure. Tua gets hit. He's been
injury prone. But the way the Philadelphia Eagles won to
and it was ugly is incredibly sustainable.
Dominate the line of scrimmage.
You know, this is not college football.
Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Osborne.
They got dudes too.
A couple good edge rushers.
Minnesota's got dudes too.
But Philadelphia hasn't really played that well offensively.
It's very rare that you can go on the road.
Last week, the Eagles, go on the road, get out played in the second half and win.
tonight choppy turbulent first half didn't pass the ball effective early and won they had a nine
minute drive at one point and didn't score totally sustainable your lane johnson's kelsey um jason
kelson's probably you can do that every weekend and you know if you go back and look at new
england's dynasty and i you know i was living in connecticut during the last 10 years of it or a big
chunk of the last 10 years of it. There were the Randy Moss years where they were winning
shootouts and blowing people out. But a lot of times in New England during that dynasty, just in
the AFC, Baltimore had better personnel many years, so did the Steelers, Colts had equal
personnel. They didn't always have the best teams. But if you remember, they always got
great offensive line play with their coach Dante Scarnacchio. With Brady, they were very good pre-snap.
They were great at getting pressure, not always sacks, but pressure on a post-examble.
who's in quarterbacks under Bill Belichick, and they got turnovers. They were outplayed in a lot of big
games, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Colts, Denver, and they just found ways to win by being very good
pre-snap, good special teams, a big situational play late, sometimes a trick play with Julian Edelman.
That's sustainable. New England, if I could define their dynasty, they were the smartest team
in the league. Brady, really smart, Belichick, a brilliant defensive coach.
We're not always the most talented. Smart is sustainable. The Randy Moss years are not, right?
So I look at Philadelphia, and they don't look nearly as overpowering as San Francisco did.
And I think it's very obvious that without Shane Stike and the offensive coordinator from last year, formerly with Justin Herbert, Jalen Hertz, now he had a very nice debut with Anthony Richardson.
He's a brilliant offensive coach, finally getting a head coaching job with the Colts.
you know, they're trying to find their way, trying to find their rhythm.
I think Al and Kirk Herbstreet talked about it tonight.
You can just tell they're just not there yet.
You know, one of the things I think most fans know, you recognize it now.
We didn't talk about this probably 10, 15 years ago when I started,
but coordinators, especially on the offensive side, are so valuable,
especially for young quarterbacks.
Jalen Hertz, what is this year for?
And really only year three getting, you know, last year was his first big breakout year
in his second year starting. So, I mean, Josh Allen, I still think, is a young quarterback. He misses
Brian Daibol. I thought Jalen hurts in the first two starts. He misses Shane Steichen. They're out of
rhythm. A couple of big plays over the top. But basically, Nick Seriani's doing what he should do.
Guys, we have arguably the best offensive line in the league. We're just going to lean into it,
dominate the line of scrimmage, control the clock. So when the other quarterback comes on the field,
Mac Jones or Kirk Cousins, they can be cold.
You know, they've been sitting on the bench for real time 20 minutes.
Maybe it drives nine and a half minutes.
That stuff, you can do that every weekend, almost every weekend.
So Philadelphia is 2-0, hasn't really played well.
There are very few teams in pro football that could play as poorly as the Eagles did in the
opener on the road and win.
There are very few teams that are struggling offensively to pass the ball.
ball can face a team last year that was 11 and 0 and one scored games of Vikings and win pretty
convincingly. So, you know, Philadelphia, they'll get, you know, I just, I think they've got
too many smart people in the building, the GM, the quarterback, a lot of veteran offensive
linemen, they'll figure it out. I didn't think they played particularly well tonight. I just thought
they dominated the line of scrimmage. Minnesota's going to draft a quarterback, and they're going to
draft a quarterback, I would imagine, in the first round. I mean, there's a few things we know. The New York
Jets, because Aaron Rogers got hurt and will not play 65% of the snaps, the Jets retain their first
round pick, be shocked if they don't draft an offensive lineman with their first pick.
The Minnesota Vikings are going to draft, so are the Arizona Cardinals, so probably
are the Raiders, are going to draft a quarterback in the first round.
So I think the Kirk Cousins thing, you know, these big TV Thursday night, Monday night,
Sunday night, standalone games, Kirk Cousins is just bad at them.
There's no getting around it.
He is just bad.
They call certain players teeth clenchers where they get up tight early in Peyton Manning's
career.
He had a little bit of that where he was really, really intense and wanted another walkthrough
and another practice.
And Tony Dungey once told the story where Peyton Manning and his career on Saturdays was
sort of family day and get the families out to practice.
And Peyton was like, no, I want up tempo.
I want to practice.
And Tony would say, no, we're okay.
We're in a good space.
So Peyton was pretty intense early.
it hurt him sometimes in big spots early in his career, not as much late.
I think Kirk's always been that guy.
He's got one o'clock games, at home especially, he's money.
You get him in these standalone spots, he's not as good.
So the Green Bay Packers and Detroit look very good in the NFC North, Minnesota, 0 and 2.
But a better draft spot, and they need a quarterback long term.
Philadelphia, ugly, 2 and O. They'll take it.
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All right, had a couple people at the gym come up to me and say,
hey, you're doing sharp and square? And I said it's sharp or.
square, not sharp and square. Or I'm the or square. He's the sharp before the or square. It's
Chad Millman's CCO Action Network, all odds provided by draft kings. All right. I stunk last week,
but last year was the only time I've won in week one in forever. So I'm ready to go. Bounce back
week. I'm going to be the New York Giants of squares. I am going to bounce back. Okay, first number.
And the number is telling me I'm on the wrong side, but I like Chicago plus two and a half anyway.
Um, listen, Baker's a great story.
But I, I think I get a, a little bit of a coach edge.
I think Claypool may not play.
I think Chicago really believes they can win this division.
I think Tampa's going to figure out fairly quickly.
They are what they are.
I think there's absolute urgency.
I think the bears at home were humiliated.
I think they'll be totally focused.
If there's any rushing props for Justin Fields,
I think he's going to be able to kind of work this defense and move around a little.
I'm going to take Chicago plus two and a half.
It feels like that's not what the Sharps want me to do, but I'm going to do it anyway,
sharper square.
Dude, you're misreading it entirely.
The Sharps love this play.
And they love that you're doing it.
They've been calling me insane.
Make sure Colin takes the bears at plus two and a half.
This game opened at four.
It's been bet to two and a half by the wise guys.
the public is on the Buccaneers.
And there's a lot of this this week,
classic overreaction to what people saw in week one
and letting that play into their decision making for week two.
And that's a mistake that a lot of people make.
There's a stat I can give you right now since 2012.
Teams that lost by double digits, the Bears,
playing against teams that did not lose by double digits.
So that team would have to have won the game.
or lost by less than 10, that's the Buccaneers.
The team that lost by double digits on the road since 2012, 24 and 1 against the spread.
So there are two teams that fit that criteria this week.
The Bears are one of them.
And look, there was so much hype on the Bears before the season began.
And there was no hype on the box.
So naturally, with the way the Bears got beat and the way the bucks won,
there's going to be a little bit of a flip.
The script is going to be flip.
But look, the Bears' offense, they had 22 first downs.
They had more time of possession than the Packers.
They have three turnovers and four sacks.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers defense gave up 344 passing yards.
They gave up six yards per play, not six yards per pass attempt, six yards per pass attempt.
Six yards per play and seven yards per pass attempt.
So Minnesota had three turnovers, including Kirk in the red zone late in the first half.
that would have put then up 1710, and that would have been a different game.
So I like what we're seeing here with the Bears as underdogs.
It's sharp.
I've played it.
Okay, I don't like favorites much.
I took one last week and got burned.
I'll get to that in a second.
But I do have a theory that if you have a capable quarterback and a good coach and are
humiliated in a standalone game on TV, you'll empty the bag following week, play with great
emotion and focus.
Giants, it's now minus four at Draft Kings, Arizona.
I like the Giants a lot, sharper square.
Play it, play it, play it in your survivor pools.
Don't waste your early season picks on the bills or the cheeps or anyone else.
Play the Giants.
I actually got this at five and feel like I got the worst of the number.
I'm a little surprised it's moved to four, but this is one of those spots, right?
You're going to play the team that just got blown out.
look, Arizona, they didn't win that game so much, they didn't cover that game so much as why.
And by the way, I'm counting a cover for Arizona as a win.
That's how, that's how low the expectations were.
But they did play a game in which the other team practically gave them the game.
And so this is not going to be the same scenario.
Brian Dayball is a much better coach.
It's a coaching mismatch.
Look, they stunk it up.
They played a team that was just much better at that moment.
really good defense. They didn't have the right game plan. You can come up with all the excuses.
Whatever you want at the end of the day, the scenario here is you take the Giants.
Okay, I don't love the number. I'd like it better at three, but I'm going to take Kansas City
Andy Reid historically off a buyer with extra time as money. They didn't have Travis Kelsey.
He's the greatest receiving tight end ever. He'll get 15 targets this week. Jacksonville
struggled mightily and won. So if they'd have lost it in thee,
right and being humiliated, I'd stay away.
They were outplayed in one.
Kansas City's defense, I don't know about anybody else.
They got a consistent pass rush without Chris Jones.
And oh, by the way, the Lions O line is good.
And they were in Jared Goff's face.
I think this is one of these.
I've seen these two teams play twice last year.
The gap is bigger.
It wasn't closed in one off season.
I'm going to take Kansas City minus three and a half.
and I think they win by a touchdown.
All right.
So there's a couple different scenarios here.
And you're right about the Chiefs
and you're right about the Lions.
And that plays into a Lion's Seahawks game,
which I might try to convince you to bet.
But with that game against the Lions,
the Chiefs actually only gave up 14 offensive points.
Don't forget there was a pick six.
I know, right?
And so here's where we're sort of the sentiment
and what you believe about a roster and what you as an analyst who was much more sophisticated
about football than you let people believe, let's that play into, okay, this game opened
to two and a half, and then it got to three. And now it's at three and a half. So the number's
been moving against your decision right here. For me, once it got to three and a half, it was a
pass. Like I didn't want to play Kansas City as more than a field goal favorite on the road,
because then you start getting into trends that go against Patrick Mahal.
So the wise guys liked it at two and a half.
They liked it okay at three.
It's a pass at three and a half.
Okay.
Well, that's why we do this.
Yeah.
I think this is a coaching mismatch, but I'm going to do it anyway.
I think Brandon Staley, for the first time, players are criticizing him.
The media in L.A.
crushed him.
I'm going to take the Chargers minus three at Tennessee.
Tannehill missed spots.
Didn't look good.
Vrable criticized him publicly.
He's a much better coach than Brandon Staley.
I can't believe this roster can go 0 and 2.
I can't believe it.
Chargers minus 3, what say you?
Sharper Square.
One thing I want to clarify about the Chiefs,
like I believe they're going to win
by the touchdown that you say they will.
I'm just saying for people who are listening,
the value, like what professionals are thinking about
when it gets to 3 and a half,
they're not going to play it because there's no value anymore.
Not that they don't think the Chiefs are going to win big.
Just to be clear.
In this game, the first thing you said,
it's a coaching mismatch.
And so why would you lean into a coach who in two seasons of coaching has not proven any ability
to put his team in a position to win with the kinds of decisions that he makes?
He has more talent on the offensive side of the ball.
Colin, you preach this all the time.
I listen to your fabulous radio show.
One of your primary theories, defensive coaches with offensive genius players is not a good match, right?
How many times have you said that?
And so all of a sudden, we're leaning into Brandon Staley on the road as a favorite against a much better football coach against a defensive line that is fierce.
Jeffrey Simmons is an all-pro caliber player.
And Mike Vrable, by the way, one of the best underdog coaches in the NFL 24-9 and 1 as an underdog of three or more, including this past week against the Saints.
there's a handful of coaches that every professional better is thinking about when they are looking to bet.
Mike Vrable, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, Bill Belichick.
Those are the guys that you want to be betting on as underdogs.
All right.
A lot of times you try to convince me to bet ugly games.
So I'm going to give you a little my belief system here.
The NFC South is bad.
Nobody's really good enough to beat their rivals on the road.
They'll all win their home games.
So Carolina at home getting a field goal against New Orleans.
I mean, New Orleans had a couple of big pop plays,
but I don't think anybody in this division is going on the road and beating their rivals.
I'm going to take Carolina.
They hung with Atlanta.
I think Carolina is the side plus three, sharper square.
Totally sharp.
They don't love it.
But when we look at some metrics, and you can see this at actionnetwork.com or in the Action Network app,
We will list the percentage of bets coming in on a game, and we will list the percentage of money coming in in a game.
And those two things are not necessarily correlated.
Bets are actual number of bets, one ticket, two ticket, three ticket, four tickets.
But you could have one ticket that is worth $100,000 and 10 tickets that are worth $10, and the number of bets will not equal the number of money.
Money is usually an indicator of what professional betters are doing.
Bets are an indicator of what the public, the squares, are doing.
The bets in this game are on the Saints.
The money in this game, by a two-thirds majority, is on the Panthers.
And it's because of what you just said.
You've got a division game.
You got a home dog, prime time.
It sets up nicely.
That's why they're bet in the Panthers.
It's not because they believe in Bryce Young.
It's not because they think the Panthers are very good.
Their defense did not play great.
And it's not because the Saints are so amazing.
either, right?
Like,
Tannahill looks a little bit washed,
and yet they barely beat that Tennessee team.
They needed some turnover.
So it's purely a sort of number play.
So I'm disgusted with myself betting this.
Washington plus three and a half at Denver,
I had a executive,
well, a scout.
Call me on Monday.
He said, Colin,
he goes, I know you like Russell.
He's missing.
There's wide open.
people here. These are good schemes. These are good plays. He can't see him. He's like,
this offense is. Until they get Judy, there is no juice to this offense. The Raiders are not good.
And the Raiders took the lead and never looked back. Washington's defense is good.
They're good. They're going to keep it. All Washington games are going to look the same.
They're all going to be awful television. Three and a half is too much. I got to take Washington,
sharper square. Well, look, this, this game,
and the Colts Texans game are battling for the corner TV game, you know, the game at
the sports book that they put on the corner because nobody really wants to watch it, but they
got to have every game on. I agree with you about Russell Wilson. I watched that game and I was
texting with a buddy and who's inside the NFL. And I was just like, Sean Payton's a genius.
Like he was calling such good plays and they looked so much better and it fell apart because
Russell Wilson started to lose a little bit of steam.
And so it's a very challenging game.
I think that Washington's roster is not as good as the Las Vegas roster.
I think that this is a huge coaching mismatch.
I think Jimmy G. is better than Sam Howell.
And I think that I would expect a different kind of scheme from Sean Payton now that
he's seen what Russell can do over the course of a game when other teams are adjusting.
Also, I'm still a good believer in Denver's defense.
I think it's a really good defense.
Washington, to me, was a terrible team.
Like, if Arizona has anything more serviceable than a quarterback who still did not know the names of his teammates because he had signed two weeks earlier, they'd probably lose that game.
So for me, this game is a pass.
Like, I'm not interested.
The line has moved in Denver's direction from three to three and a half.
That's more of a wise guy play than a public play.
But I like your sentiment.
I like that you're thinking about betting ugly.
Betting the NFL, winning the NFL means betting bad quarterbacks.
But here you've got two bad quarterbacks and not a lot of edge.
Okay.
So we do two things after I make my picks.
A game you try to talk me into.
And then a game I just want your opinion that I could be convinced of.
So New England getting two and a half at home is interesting.
If you look, Miami has with Tua beaten Belichick.
but A Tua averages, three touchdowns, two picks, 88 passer rating.
They've scuffed and found ways to win.
I thought New England outplayed Philadelphia for big chunks of that game.
And I would take the points with New England here, Sharper Square.
Totally sharp.
I know you are a listener of the Favorites podcast.
You know that we get calls every week from professional betters.
who will comment on one of the episodes of the podcast that we did earlier in the week
where we're talking about our early liens.
The Patriots were an early lean.
We got a lot of sharp calls, a lot of professional betters calling us saying they love the Patriots here.
And I'm with you.
I watched that New England Philly game.
New England dominated that game.
And they were the better team.
They were the better defense.
Mack Jones looked pretty good at time.
It was Bill O'Brien, put him in the right positions to succeed.
Down to the end, they had a chance to win that game.
It's if a phantom holding call on a two-point conversion kept them from covering that game.
Colin, I can't even talk about it.
I got to tell you, I had the paths and for about 24 hours until the Jets won, thank God, and I had the Jets.
I was kind of sick to my stomach.
I got, I listened, the Colts game and the Patriots game.
I lost both.
I had them both. I still love my side.
Listen, you deserve to win both of those games. You do. And I have a saying, the right side is the winning side. So when you lose, you lose. But I will tell you that we do these luck rankings at action where basically you take out the noise. You level the playing field. You take out the random penalties. You take out the turnovers. And you come up with what we call the luck rankings that basically determines the luckiest teams on a week-to-week basis. And you aggregate it. So it's the luckiest team.
over the course of a season.
The Eagles and the Lions were the two luckiest teams in week one.
The Eagles barely beat the Patriots.
I know what I saw.
The Patriots are a really good team.
The Patriots are getting a very over-hyped Dolphins team
that needed a lot of help from the opponent to win on the road.
Two is not going to throw up for 500 yards again.
I hope Tyree Kill has another huge day.
I got him at 9-to-1 to lead the league in receiving yards.
But I think the pitch gets are the right side here.
All right now, talk me into a game.
Detroit, Seattle, go for it.
Look, this is the other game that fits that trend I mentioned before,
which is 24 and 1 against the spread for teams like Seattle when they are on the road.
Coming off a double-digit loss, playing a team that basically won or lost by less than 10 the week before.
On top of that, you're getting a team in the Lions that has so much hype into the season.
they beat the Super Bowl champs.
They beat the Super Bowl champs on the road.
Opening game, prime time.
Seattle loses ugly to the Rams.
This is an over-hyped game.
This is an inflation game in terms of the line is higher than it should be.
You have to take Seattle here.
There's just no question about it.
You're going to bet a quarterback that might make you uncomfortable.
You're going to be upset that the tackles aren't playing.
but Detroit's defense is just not as good as it should be
for a team to be favored by five and a half, some place of six.
So you got to suck it up and you got to bet Seattle.
All right.
Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by draft kings.
My friend, it's great to see it.
Bad week for me, but you know what?
Tom Brady, 12 years, double-digit picks.
Who cares?
LFG, let's go.
You know what?
It's the end of the season that matters,
not the beginning of the season.
And I say that as someone who, like,
in my five picks that we talk about,
I went two and three.
And like, it happens.
It's going to happen all the time.
But also, you look at it.
I like, after that,
I don't know if you ever do this,
but like at the end of that day,
the difference between one and four and two and three is everything.
Because two and three,
you can look at your picks and say,
okay, I'm two and three.
But that page,
Patriots game, like, I, I analyzed that the right way.
I would have been three and two if not for some bad luck.
So I felt better about myself.
Yeah, well, try going on five.
I couldn't even look myself in the mirror.
It was awful.
It was tough for me.
Oh, five?
Yeah.
Did you not make any of the picks that we talked about?
I should have made the Cleveland bet.
I didn't.
I'm not betting.
I'm, I'm just, listen, fairly bitter.
It's not my personality.
I bounced back.
I had a cocktail Tuesday night.
I was good.
I said the Jets were the better play.
And I said the Lions over the Chiefs.
So I had some stuff.
I didn't include those.
But I did have, I thought the Jets were the better play.
And I thought the Lions were the better play.
Listen, that is one of your greatest traits.
You don't wear it.
You move on quickly.
I like that.
I don't wear it.
All right, buddy.
Good seeing you.
I know.
Talk to you.
The volume.
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy,
not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win.
A win is a win.
I don't care what I'm saying.
Yep, that's me.
Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey,
or my career in sports media.
Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.
This is a place for raw unfilled of conversations with athletes, creators,
and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
So let's get to it.
Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
On The Look Back at it podcast
For 1979, that was a big moment for me
84 was big to me
I'm Sam Jay
And I'm Alex English
Each episode we pick a year
unpack what went down
And try to make sense of how we survived it
With our friends, fellow comedians
And favorite authors
Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s
84 was a wild year
I don't think there's a more important
year for black people
Listen to Look Back at it
On the IHeart Radio app
Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast
This is an I-Heart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
