The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, UFC, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: October 27, 2023

Colin reacts to the Bills’ victory over the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. He breaks down why he thought this game put a mirror in front of both teams, and what we learned about their playoff prospects. He also explains why Dana White partnering with a controversial sponsor is selfish… and why that’s a GOOD thing. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 8 NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. All right, NBA fans, basketball is officially back, and the Draft King Sportsbook official sports betting partner, the NBA is celebrating with an unbeatable offer. Here you go. New customers can get $200 instantly in bonus bets by throwing down just five bucks

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it was a perfect game to kick off the week. And if you ever go to therapy in life, and I've been going to therapy for a long time, and one of the reasons I do therapy every Wednesday with my wife, Anne, and I look forward to it every week. It's not about winning. It's about self-awareness. How does she view me?

I think it makes our relationship really strong and fun. We often laugh during it. We've cried during it. But one of the reasons I like therapy is because it's a mirror. And I like to look and see all sorts of things about me. My flaws, where I'm vulnerable, where I can be better, because I love my wife. And, you know, and I want to make her life as good as possible and kind of be the best me I can, right? So without getting too personal or too into that, is that I've always thought when it comes to pro football, is that you have these mirror moments where you have to look yourself in the mirror.

And you can fool a lot of people in September in early October. The weather's good. Teams that aren't very physical. Have some nice skill players. Miami Dolphins. You can fool a lot of people for about six weeks in this league. And I thought the Philadelphia-Miamy game last week was a real. moment where Miami had to look itself in the mirror and go, we're kind of a fake gold watch.

We're leasing the speedboat. These are not really Gucci loafers. We can't really play with physical teams. And that's okay. The weather gets colder. They don't have good O-line, D-line play. And as the weather gets colder and it gets windier, physicality beats speed. And I also thought tonight was a great example where Tampa is convincing themselves because they do have some really nice players of what they think they are. Buffalo is what they want to be. What they want is to have a superstar quarterback. And Baker was the number one pick. He's not a superstar quarterback. Josh Allen is. They want to have the physicality, kind of the overall momentum of the franchise. And I think when you get to week seven and week eight, and they're going to be games this week, the Texans are a good team.

The Panthers are not. I think you're going to be. You're going to be games this week. The Texans are a good team. I you'll see that. The Lions are a good team. The Raiders are not. You'll see that. Ravens are a good team. The Cardinals are not. Cardinals. Vegas won that first game going to Denver and Mile High. They felt really good about themselves. Carolina competitive early Tampa Bay for an hour led their division. You start getting to week seven and eight. You got to kind of look in the mirror. Got to have a little self-awareness. Tampa's not a very good football team. Buffalo is one of the better football teams. I think Miami last weekend. And Miami's still really talented, top 10, 12 team of the league.

But you really can fool a lot of people in this league. Teams that are average convinced themselves, they're pretty good. Teams that are pretty good convince themselves, they're very good. And Tampa was really talking a game for about four or five weeks, and here's what they are, not close to being able to go on the road and control a game tonight. And that's why I think that's one of the reasons I like to go to therapy is that you can convince yourself of all sorts of things. But when somebody a neutral voice comes and says, no, that's not really true. No, that doesn't really work.

No, that's not going to pass a smell test. It's really refreshing. It's kind of like, oh, I can't bullshit people. I can't bullshit anybody. I got a neutral voice. Week 7 and 8 is that neutral voice in the NFL. You're not fooling anybody. Miami, you're a track meet team. You're not going to win the Super Bowl without that kind of line

play. Miami's line play is just not good enough to win a Super Bowl. Buffaloes may not be, Philadelphia may not be, but they're much more built for the duration and not September. Another topic I had today is I thought it was a gutsy move. One of my favorite things about Dana White and the UFC is sort of this quality that he is willing to put himself out there. be completely vulnerable and be hated. During COVID, a lot of people, the media was really pushing back when Dana White went and leased an island. And he just said, I don't give a rip. I don't think my fighters are in peril, in danger.

I'm going to go to an island. And he was right. 35-year-old athletes were not in danger. Kids were not in danger, despite what the media wanted to claim. And so Dana, again, took a big swing recently with Bud Light. So Bud Light, real men of genius, very popular beer. And then they had a marketing pivot to something that I thought was, for a lot of people, it was just, it was too much too quickly. But I wasn't outraged by it because I don't know if I've ever had a Bud Light.

I'm not a full outrage guy. And one of the things I thought about is the UFC fans have pushed back on Dana, and Dana's pushed back on them, is that one of the things I've always appreciated about Dana. Whether, and Dana and I have gone back and forth on stuff, whether Dana and I agree on things, he's totally up front with me. I try to be totally up front with him. He's confrontational. I can be. We've resolved any brief issues we've had. And we don't already have many because I think I really respect him and he's always been good to me. But one of the things that happened, so I went to three UFC cards this summer. And I knew Donald Trump was going to be at one or two of them. I knew that beforehand. But I wasn't going to let Trump, who I think is a buffoon and I

a narcissist get in the way of my fun. And the reason being is, there's an old adage, be less selfish. I don't believe in it. At the volume, I believe our motto should be, be more selfish, because more selfish means happy and less fake outrage. You don't, you don't really care what the marketing campaign for Bud Light is. He just needed something to be outraged by. Remember years ago, people outraged by the Dixie Chicks. Let's be honest, you didn't love their music. That's okay. Wasn't my cup of tea either. Is that when you're selfish, and by the way, you loved Michael Jordan, he was selfish. All you MJ fans, MJ didn't pass, punch the teammate.

People called him an ass, difficult. You don't like LeBron. LeBron passes and elevates others. You love Kobe and MJ. Tom Brady didn't let his backup have snaps. He wanted to grow up out of town, selfish. I'm on Team Tom. Garoppolo shouldn't get snaps.

Brady should get all of them. Do you want to win Super Bowls? Garoppolo's not the guy. Brady was. Do you want to win titles? Don't pass to Matthew Delvedova. Take the shot, LeBron. Michael Jordan.

Take more shots. Kobe. Take more shots. People look at selfish as mean. I look at selfish as often realistic and happy. I care about my wife and my children. My business, my employees. and a small group of friends.

I go to UFC cards even if Trump is there. Why would I let Trump get in the way of my happiness? I'm going to be selfish and have fun. I took my cousin Matt. And then my friend Eric and his kids, I didn't care if Trump was there. I would never vote for Trump. I'm not going to let Trump dissuade my plans,

get in the way of my happiness. The athletes that we truly love are selfish. Brady, MJ, Kobe, Shaq, Shack. I mean, how many commercials does Shack have? Six hundred. You think he's worried about you? He's worried about his commercials in his bank. Good for Shack. Shack takes care of Shack. Oh, for the record, Travis Kelsey, who's dating Taylor Swift? Who's worth like $4 billion? He that a Pfizer commercial and a Bud-like commercial. He's not pretending he's outraged. He's taking care of Travis Kelsey in his business. I don't have to agree with it, but he's not

faking outrage. He's being sort of selfish. And I love the Chiefs. And I'm going to keep watching them because they're usually the most entertaining team in the league on Sunday. Am I not going to watch the Chiefs and Travis Kelsey? I can't watch that whole Pfizer thing. You don't want to get a vaccine. Don't get one. What do I care? But I want to watch Travis Kelsey is that when I see all this outrage and I can't believe this politician and this band and this beer company, I don't care. I just want to have fun and be happy. I have people occasionally say,

you know, Colin, you have a great job. I'm like, yeah, I get up, I get to talk about sports. It's just, I'm happy. When I first met my wife, she said, you just really, you live your best life. I'm like, yeah, I'd love you to be part of it.

But I don't have a lot of time to be unhappy. Jerry Jones always says this. I don't have a lot of time for a bad time. You view selfish as mean. I view it as happy. Dana White said, they want to pay us $100 million. We had multiple beer sponsors interested. I'm going to go and get Bud Light's money and do a business deal with Bud Light.

If you don't want to watch UFC, don't. I'll take your seats. I'll take your seats. But I don't let people get in the way of my fun. Politicians, beer companies, ad campaigns, musicians, Hollywood. What do I care what a Hollywood writer votes? If the show's funny, I watch. I figure everybody that works for Netflix who writes,

and acts is probably left-leaning, I probably disagree with them that 90% of their political views. Who I care? If the show's funny, I'm watching. Netflix and chill. Instant reaction. See you tomorrow at FS1.

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For more information, go for the people.com slash Colin or dial pound law. That's pound 529 from your cell phone. That's for the people.com slash Colin or pound law 529 from yourself. This is a paid advertisement. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and internet. entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun,

thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your problem. podcast. All right, time for another edition of Sharp or Square. Chad was super sharp. I was kind of sharp. I was three and two last week. All of our odds provided by draft kings,

Chad, of course, the CCO, the Action Network. I'll tell you, I have taken more favorites than any other year because I think there's becoming a gap offensively between the halves, the quarterbacks that are good and the have-nots. And so Monday, I made a huge mistake. I took Brock Purdy over Kirk Cousins at home. And Cousins was great. So I'm going to throw you a game, and it's very number dependent. I don't like it at three and a half, but at three, it's interesting. I don't think we're paying attention to how good the Texans are. And just hear me out. They destroyed Pittsburgh. They destroyed Jacksonville. Okay, this is a team that is a playaway. They should have beaten the Falcons, although the Falcons

was the right side. This team has taken quality teams, playoff teams, high seeds potentially, and destroyed them. Carolina, we laud them for keeping it close in the first half against Miami. They are in complete, utter rebuild. At minus three, I love Houston. At three and a half, I'm a square. But let's say the number drifts back to Texans minus three,

which I'd take is that sharper square. Totally sharp. The wise guys have been on C.J. Stroud from the beginning. And when I say from the beginning, I mean, March. There's nobody in the professional betting community who spent a lot of time looking at a tape and spent a lot of money betting on the NFL draft

who thought, oh yeah, I like Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud. It's pretty well known within sort of the inner circle of NFL executivedom that Bryce Young was an owner's pick and that the player most people wanted was C.J. Stroud. He lands at the Texans. He's been by far the best rookie quarterback and not just sort of making good plays and then not making mistakes, but he's made Robert Woods look good. He's made Nico Collins look good. He gets one of his targets back this week, too, by the way. I think tanks back this. Yeah. That's right. You know, his worst game,

he still ended up leading the team to a touchdown drive in the final time. He's a touchdown drive in the final two minutes, and then they ended up losing because the defense couldn't stop anybody. But look, this guy off a buy, the wise guys like the Texans at minus three, which is why it's gone up to three and a half. All right. The Steelers have been outgained in every game. And in fact, they've often been awful for large chunks of the game offensively, but they found ways to win.

I think that ends this week. Jacksonville's a better team at two and a half. Jacksonville, I think, has a real shot. I mean, what's interesting about Jacksonville, three games in a very short period, on the road for two games, we were worried how they play against Indy. They keep kind of busting up these trends

because they're probably pretty good. Outside of Kansas City last year, where they felt a little overwhelmed. They kind of stack up with everybody when I watch them play. Minus two and a half that are the side to me over the Steelers. Don't care about home in a way,

whether it's not a factor yet, sharp or square. No, it's the Steelers are the sharp side. It all may come undone one day for the Steelers. But Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach in the NFL against the spread the past 20 years. Mike Tomlin against teams that are over 60% winning percentage regularly wins at home as an underdog. Mike Tomlin as an underdog at home, 16 and 9 straight up. forget about against the spread. We saw it last week.

We've seen it against the Ravens. This team is really weird because they played terribly in the first half. And then in the second half, the defense starts to grind down the offense a little bit. And T.J. when he's on the field, it's just a different team, right? He tilts the field in the direction of the Steelers. We saw last week, the first play in the second half, interception, runs it back to the three-yard line. It catapulted them to a win. I think the Steelers are better with Deonté Johnson back.

It frees up George Pickens to be more of a threat downfield that makes Kenny Pickett more comfortable. It's just a better offense. That's set. The Jags are an interesting team. So I'm a little bit nervous about it. Like there have been times this year, Steelers against the Ravens, bet it. Didn't even think about it. Steelers against the Rams last week, bet it.

Didn't even think about it. I don't know why I'm a little more nervous about the Jags, but I'm still taking the Steelers and that's the sharp side. All right. An interesting game that I, and I'm reticent to do this because I have twice had the Jets as my last team I didn't take, and I believe in both times they would have covered. So I don't like the Jets as a favorite against anybody. So I would tend to take the Giants plus a field goal with Tyrod Taylor, who's not prone to mistakes.

that would be my feeling. I just don't think Zach Wilson as a favorite is ever a comfortable bet. I think this defense, I mean, let's be honest about it. The Jets really have one perimeter weapon. One, Garrett Wilson.

It's still a really meager receiving core. So if they can't run the football effectively, Washington struggled against the Giants doing that. I got to take three points in a game that should be really low scoring, sharp or square. Totally sharp. Wise guys love the Giants this week.

They like the idea of Tyraub Taylor playing instead of Daniel Jones. He's not mistake prone. He runs the offense that Brian Dable wants him to run, which is really important. But also defensively, the Jets, everyone believes, are lights out. The Jets defense and its success is predicated this season on their ability to force turnovers. Right. 13 turnovers this year, 16 all of last year.

But last year, sort of the advanced metrics, their expected points allowed per drives, things like that. And Bill Barnwell at ESPN wrote a great column about all this this week. They're kind of middle of the road. And they're winning and keeping themselves in games. We saw it against the Eagles based on their ability to force turnovers. If you're playing Tyrod Taylor, who's not as prone to turning the ball over, that takes away a huge advantage for the Jets defensively. So yes, the wise guys are on the Giants.

All right. Another game, which I'm undecided now, but off a buy offensive coach Joe Burrow against a San Francisco team now in a backup quarterback with no Trent Williams or Debo, Sam Darnold is built for Kyle Shanahan perhaps, but I'm not sure if he's built to be inserted missing a left tackle in one of their specialty players. If I get four, it feels like a slam dunk Cincinnati at three and a half probably still is. I'm undecided on it, but I've gone back and forth. J-Mack and I talked about this on the air and off on FS1. I would think bingles, anything over three, would be the side, sharper square. Yeah, I think that's right. And you're nailing it at the number similarly to the Texans conversation. You get minus three, you're probably going

to take the Niners. If you can get the hook at three and a half, it can get it at four, then you're going to take the Bengals. I think before this game, a lot of consensus was going to be on the Niners. They've had some bad luck. They missed a field goal. That cost them against the Browns. They missed a field goal. Has three strange, uncharacteristic turnovers. Turns out two of them might have come after Brock Purdy was concussed and through interceptions. And they gave up a weird touchdown at the end of that first half against the Vikings on an all-out blitz that is just rare for Steve Wilkes to call. And so this team was coming back home as a five and a half point favorite in a game where I think a lot of wise guys thought, okay, the Niners are going to get right. Now Purdy's out,

but I think the consensus is going to be, if they're a short favorite, they're still going to back them. If wise guys can get the hook, they'll take the bangles. People are not. that convinced Joe Burroughs back. And he did not look great in the second half of that game they had right before the buy. He's still having trouble getting the ball downfield. Not great percentage-wise throwing the ball down field. So there's a lot of mixed feelings about this. This is entirely about the number. Okay. I think Patriots plus nine and a half at Miami feels right, not because they beat Buffalo. Injuries on the O line, I think it's very clear that Miami has not beaten a a playoff team since week three of last year, or what we consider a top-end team.

It's a lot of fake Gucci loafers and leasing a speedboat. It's fun to look at, but when you dig deeper, don't have much of a chin. Offensive lines bad. Translation, New England will get pressure. They do usually even against decino lines. They're running the ball a little better. Mac Jones with confidence, a Belichick buoyed by that contract that's public. The team played with a certain swagger. It's not just the Buffalo number. It's a division game, nine and a halfs a ton. I do think weather cools. You're not going down to Miami in the swamp in the second week of September. It's not going to be a factor. I think I would have to take New England on the points, sharper square. Yeah, that's the sharp side. And it's funny, you say, sort of the fake Gucci's and speedboats, right?

Like, look, Miami's reflection of the city is playing in right now, and they have not beaten good teams. And we've talked about this last week. My biggest bet of the season was the Eagles at two and a half over the dolphins, right? And what we're going to see, what we started to see with the Patriots against the Bills, Bill O'Brien, a lot more with Mack Jones under center, a lot more short passes. That defense, which had lost Matthew Judon, had lost Christian Gonzalez, started to figure out, okay, how are we going to play? How are we going to rush the passer? the dolphins without key players on the offensive line. I do think Tyree killed practice today.

So very good chance that he plays on Sunday. But the wise guys, they push this number from 10, down to nine and a half, down to nine. Divisional games, the underdogs in divisional games, the last decade, 60 games above 500 against the spread. And we got a few of those games. week. I don't like big favorites, but I do think my general rule, if quality teams get humiliated, they almost always play well the following week. We saw this with the Cowboys and the Chargers.

Detroit humiliated at home, Raiders, Jimmy Garapolo, very few snaps this year. This is a very average team. I know it's eight to eight and a half, all odds provided by draft kings. I said this this week, don't sell your Detroit stock. They're going to win the division. They're going to win 11, 12 games. They're built the right way. Pass rush. O. Lone. line, solid coaching. They need another corner. So does everybody not name the Jets. This is the rare, large number,

and you know I don't bet big favorites. I could see a 30-20 here and not be shocked, sharper square. Yeah, it's pretty sharp, actually. The early wean has been on the Lions because of everything you just said. Good chance to get right at home. Much better coaching, much better team.

Talk about a team and a coach. that reflects the ethos of its town, right? Like this is a, as high flying as they can be, and as good as Jared Gough has been, like this is a smash-mouth team and their run defense is fierce. And that's something that the Raiders haven't been able to figure out

when they're on offense. Jimmy G., who knows what he's going to be when he comes back, but also the Raiders, the coaching is terrible, the roster is terrible, they got lucky in their last couple of wins. this should be a huge, huge opportunity for the Lions.

The one thing, it's funny you say that they should win the division. So because, you know, this is what we do, I was looking at the NFC North futures, and the Lions are minus 400, the Vikings who have won two in a row are plus 550, and who knows what will happen with the Packers this weekend, and maybe we're going to talk about that game. But the Lions and Vikings play each other twice in the last three weeks of the year. I know it. Who knows? Like, can the Vikings stay within two games of the Lions? Hey, look at the Viking schedule coming up. A lot of Jordan loves on it. Watch Minnesota go on a six-game

heater. This was the one you circled as an L. They got nothing but Desmond Ritterer and Jordan love. And by the way, Justin Jefferson comes back. Jordan Addison now established. O'Lions playing very well. Watch Minnesota sneak into a wild card discussion. Here's what I would say. I think the Packers are going to beat them. Now, it doesn't mean that they can't stay in sort of in contention. Because like you said, their schedule the rest of the year is so easy, really easy. Like, you're not kidding when you talk about the quarterbacks they're going to face. And I don't know if you're going to ask me about the Packers, but I'll just give you a freebie right now.

Wise guys love the Packers this week. Why? Tell me, tell me, why? They just think this is a stinky line. They feel like they look at what happened last week in Denver, and Jordan Love's receivers had a lot of drop passes. They're going against a defense that still is so blitz happy, and that's going to, Jordan Love has actually been very good against the Blitz. It frees his receivers up into single coverage.

It gives Christian Watson an opportunity to extend the field. It gives Aaron Jones an opportunity to be in single coverage out of the back field. Minnesota last week, I said it about the Niners. just as true about Minnesota playing the Niners. Kirk was on fire, but they got very lucky. The Niners had many, many opportunities to win that game and had some really sort of what we like to call luck factors working against them with some odd, uncharacteristic moments,

not just for the Niners, but in the game of football, right? And so I think that the Vikings going into this game just overvalued. They beat a dominant team in a really high, profile spot on television, and that lends to people coming in to back them. It's a pros Joe's game. Majority of the money, meaning the big betters are on the Packers, the majority of the tickets, smaller money, more schmucks are on the Vikings. All right.

We finish with two things. The first is, talk me into a game. I often give it to you, and it's the Rams plus six to six and a half against Dallas. So against Philadelphia and against Philadelphia and against. San Francisco. They were clearly outclassed. But the fact that they hung around Pittsburgh, they are in a rebuild. One Rams player, one high-end Rams player, they have one that's in his prime, Ernest Brown. Cooper, Stafford, Havenstein, Donald, they're out of their prime. Pittsburgh's probably got nine guys in their prime. They're young. That game was go either way entering the fourth. And it was a Pittsburgh

Steeler crowd. So I think McVeigh is doing a remarkable job with an old Aaron Donald and mostly rookies and six-round, fourth-round picks. I like the coaching here. It's a lot of points. I think the Rams will stay close. They're fairly healthy. I think I'd like the Rams plus the points, but Vegas is so smart. Draft Kings. It's seven. I think it's such a great bet for the Rams. It's six and a half. I don't know. You tell me. Talk me into it. So it's interesting you bring this up. This was the biggest debate that me and my BFF Simon Hunter had on our podcast. And I love the cowboys in this spot. Simon wants to love the cowboys, but can't quite find the exact number. Like at six, six and a half, it's basically lined right, like you just said.

The bookmakers know what they're doing. We cannot find sort of a consensus, wise guy opinion on this because the number is so right. I'm all in on the Cowboys for a couple of reasons. I think they're much more talented. I think Mike McCarthy is a terrible coach. And I think he is putting his team at a disadvantage inside the red zone. and I think over the course of his career, it has been proven that if any other coach was working with Aaron Rogers, he probably would have more Super Bowls. Like, he's just not a very good play caller.

But the Cowboys defense is so good. Their pressure from just four players on the front line is insane. And the reason the Steelers beat the Rams last week is because of the pressure they got on a terrible, terrible Rams O line. the opportunity here is to put a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford. And look, if he can beat the pressure and get the ball to Pukua, if he can get the ball to Cooper Cup, that changes it because the Cowboys do have a lot of issues with their back line. But we saw against Justin Herbert, the Cowboys had 33 pressures and hit Justin Herbert 26 times, even though they barely sacked him.

Like the end of the game, Michael Parsons got him once. But that impacted him enough that he was making bad throws, rushing throws. So I also like the Cowboys off a by coming home. Dak, when he's at home, covers and he covers big. Dak on the road as an underdog in these games against teams where they are playing opponents who are usually better than them in the high-profile spots that we're used to seeing, that's when he struggles. And that's where you see sort of the disadvantage that he has with Mike McCarthy as a coach.

But at home, as a favorite, he's a frontrunner. That's a good spot to get healthy. I like the Cowboys in this spot. Finally, what did I miss? What's the stinkeruny that you want to talk me into? There's two of them. There's two of them we didn't talk about. Oh, Jesus.

Two ugly division. Oh, I, listen, I know Washington's one of them, right? I looked at that and I thought, you know what's funny about them? Half to half game to game. You have no idea what you're getting. But I got to tell you this. There are moments when I watch Sam Hal, and I'm like, he's a mid-level franchise quarterback. When you give him time to step and throw, it's pretty good, right?

Yeah, that's exactly it. Washington plus six and a half. Look, Denver opened at eight and a half. Got bet down to eight by the wise guys. Got bet down to seven and a half by the wise guys. Some places it's seven now. Wise guys love in Denver in the past couple weeks. First, when they played Kansas City, they thought, oh, was Mahomes just off in this game? Is that why the defense was so good? And then they played Green Bay. And Matt LaFloire is really good at scheming his guys open. And Denver did a good job of stopping the Packers. Plus, Giovante Williams, six weeks into the season, seven weeks into the season, much more explosive. You're starting to see Sean Payton, give him the ball more.

It's why you've seen, again, brother, division games, big favorites, the chief's not great at covering over three and a half. Chiefs are not a big cover, big number team. It's hard to cover big numbers when you're always favored by a big number, right?

So there's a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy here where you get Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite an underdog. He's so good, he's going to win in those games. But if every game you're, favored by three and a half to 10, it's hard to always cover in those games. So the wise guys like Denver and the wise guys love Washington. They think it's a tough spot for the Eagles.

They've got big games coming up. So it was a little bit of a look ahead, a little bit of a trap game on the road. Is hurts hurt? We don't know. Is Lane Johnson struggling? We don't know. That offense still isn't perfect. So there's some money coming on the commanders.

I like them both. I bet them both. Be my buddy. Be my buddy, Colin. Be my bad game betting buddy. I went four and one last week. You went three and two.

I went four and one because I made the extra effort. Okay? I made the effort. You know, the downside to having taste is you won't go down to the stinkerama game, the dumpster game. Oh, is that what you're calling it? Taste, is that how you're framing this?

That is a masterclass and narrative right there. I like it. Well done. All dumpster dive and take Washington. Why not? You will? Yeah, well, I kind of, they're all over the map, but, I mean, Philadelphia comes off a big TV, emotional game, late game, a little less prep time. It's a division rival, big games ahead.

I do think it's the kind of game that you would say to yourself, let's rest, Lane Johnson. And you know what I mean? This is a deep team. And we know this, that Washington has moments. We know this. So I, and Philadelphia has, I thought that Miami game was the first game. I thought they really played well. And at one point, it was 17, 17.

So, and Miami is really a team Philadelphia is built to beat. Washington's a team that's built to play Philadelphia close. Physical trenches can run into. a little. I don't think that's big dumpster diving. I looked at that game. You know, again, the wise guys are smart. Like, like, you know, it's six and a half, three and a half. Like, I like San Francisco, but you make, if three and a half four was Sam Darnold, then it's not as attractive. It's just not a good bet. All right. We got to go. By the way, I like how this ended up being, you know what? I like them. It's no longer dumpster diving.

It's really, this is the flay of home underdog. likes right here i'm cistern's i'm grabbing an e clare out of the garbage just quickly it was only there five seconds that's that's why you are a a multimedia mogul yeah those kind of references quick all right buddy see you all right brother i'll see you later the volume another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert smigel and friends me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

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