The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Levis Shows Some Special, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

Colin reacts to the Steelers win over the Titans on Thursday Night Football! He explains why “wins” aren’t necessarily a quarterback stat, and that the showdown between Will Levis and Kenny Pickett showed that Will Levis is truly “special” and why Kenny Pickett is not. (2:45) Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, stops by for a round of “Sharp or Square,” where they provide the sharpest betting advice for the Week 9 NFL slate. (15:18) Seahawks vs. Ravens (18:00) Chiefs vs. Dolphins (19:40) Bills vs. Bengals (22:15) Vikings vs. Falcons (23:49) Bears vs. Saints (25:52) Jets vs. Chargers (27:21) Texas vs. Bucs (30:00) Panthers vs. Colts (31:08) Eagles vs. Cowboys (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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the Steelers, went over the Titans, Kenny Pickett, and Will Levis. Very encouraging. Night, if you're a Titans fan. Will Levis outplayed to meet Pickett until the very end. And then we'll have Chad Millman on Sharper Square. I had another winning week on Blazing Five. Tougher week. I like a lot of favorites last few weeks. That's not my history, but we'll get the Chad Millman Action Network CCO in about 10 minutes. So there's a saying in football that winning is not a quarterback stat. And tonight's a great example. Kenny Pickett has significantly better wide receiving talent, a significantly better roster, at home, much more support, better defensive front to pressure, Will Levis.

And Will Levis for most of the night outplayed him with a very Spartan, very mediocre receiving tight-end core on the road, this franchise and a rebuild with multiple offensive line injuries. Now, it's important to note because I know we have a history. history of, you know, Brady going in the six round and Dack Prescott going in the third or fourth round and Russell Wilson in the third round. Remember, Will Levis was a first round. He was a lottery talent in terms of armed talent. He has a huge arm. Mom went to Yale, was a four-point college student. He just turned people off in the interview process, a lot of the gun show stuff, too cocky. So he was a first round talent that dropped to the top of the second. Kenny Pickett,

Two general managers told me, and a couple of the best guys in the league, Kenny Pickett was the top of the third to middle third talent, but he was a Pittsburgh kid, and the Steelers needed a quarterback now, and it was a bad quarterback class. And so you can see when they play. Levis has a significantly better arm, a special arm. He's bigger, stronger, thicker, plays with more confidence, easier thrower. Kenny Pickett doesn't have a lot of special, but he's got Pickens, Deontay Johnson, a couple of really good backs. I think a healthier offensive line. He's at home.

Winning is not a quarterback staff, right? Now, obviously, the great quarterbacks win more than mediocre quarterbacks or certainly bad quarterbacks. But you can see special with Will Levis. Kenny Pickett has played, I think, 21 games as a pro, and I think he's had one game with multiple touchdown passes. That is hard to do with this receiving core. Will Levis has played two games and has one multiple touchdown game. This was a big ask for him, even on the final drive. That was a big ask under pressure, not a lot to work with. He drove him down the field. Will Levis is really, really good. And this is what I mean about Kenny Pickett. Folks, it just doesn't take long. You know, I use the analogy all the time. I listen to music. I don't know anything

about it. But if you watch the voice or you watch American Idol, you can tell in 15 seconds who has talent. It doesn't take long. And none of us are music executives. I looked it up today. Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Herbert, Dack, Mahomes, Russell Wilson, you saw brilliance first year. Jared Gough and Tua, you saw brilliance when they finally got an offensive coach, McVeigh or Mike McDaniel. So Kenny Pickett's not going to be getting an offensive coach soon. Now, people always point to that, well, Josh Allen wasn't very much. good initially, but I went and looked at his rookie stance. Now, I remember him jumping over people. He was special his first year. He had 10 passing touchdowns and 18 total touchdowns. Yeah, he ran for

8, 630 yards of rushing, 7 yards of carry. There was all sorts of special from Josh Allen his first year. All sorts of special. If you don't see it as you get to Thanksgiving the second year. And that's the longest you should have to wait. Will Levis's first starting, he had four touchdowns and no picks. Four touchdowns, no picks with that Tennessee tight end wide receiver core and that old line. So I think you already see Will Levis's talent. And again, he was a top 10 talent arm wise, brain wise. People just thought he was off punting and cocky, the gun show at the combine. People just didn't like him. He interviewed very poorly. Remember he was the guy that used to eat the banana peel on, put mayonnaise in his coffee, and then a couple of teams asked him about that

during the interview process. And he, you know, said, why you bring it up? Reportedly, he was kind of brusk in the interviews, blunt. And people didn't like it. Executives didn't like it. But he has first round top 10 arm talent. So it just doesn't take long. People, there's a rule to me that when you start complaining about play calling and wide receiver drops, you have a bottom-tier quarterback. You think Justin Herbert gets great play calling or Mahomes. Mahomes receivers lead the NFL and drops. At some point, you've got to make plays. And again, Kenny Pickett will get the win. But I think if you're a Tennessee Titan fan, you got your quarterback. There's no reason to play Ryan Tannehill. None. Will Levis, big, strong, smart, lets it rip, plays with confidence,

thick kid. I think he got something. Now, this organization, like New England, can't get wide receiver right. They had AJ Brown for a minute. Now he's an eagle. But I think you've got to be really happy. And I say this regularly, routinely, that I am always rooting for all quarterbacks, even Baker Mayfield to crush it because nothing's worse than watching backups. Nothing. Look at this weekend in the NFL. I mean, there's four games I want to watch. Lamar Jackson's in one of them, two against Mahomes and another one, Burrow and Josh Allen, another one, and DAC against Jalen Hertz and another one. I mean, we're only halfway through the season, and there's four games I'm really locked into. And the worst quarterback in that group is Gino Smith, who I think led the NFL in passer rating last year.

So mediocre quarterback play is a bad, bad watch. I still feel the same way about Kenny Pickett. He'll win some games. It's a great organization. I mean, they just draft and develop so well in Pittsburgh, but will levis to me, I see special. I see juice. They got something there. Big, strong arm, thick kid, plays with a ton of confidence.

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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

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double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jay and I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that. sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Chad. I am a square, but it had another winning week two one and two. I took Dallas, Detroit on a theory I've been using since about week three, which is if you look at scoring and you look at what's happening, and what the referees are allowing, which is more holding, that it's really separating more than ever good quarterbacks from average quarterbacks, that the quarterbacks that are having

some success, last week the better quarterback won every game except Denver against Kansas City, and frankly right now, passer rating, Russell's higher than Mahomes. So as I say that, and this is a wonky week for lines, let me throw a couple I like based on favorites. not ready to go let's hear it brother Chad Millman CCO Action Network All odds provided by draft kings

so NFC teams against Lamar I like Gino don't like him trailing don't love him on the road don't think this is the best number but at five and a half I can see them winning by a touchdown

again Gino trailing second half Baltimore I believe Baltimore and I've said this for three weeks is the best team in the league I think Lamar's my MVP. It's a big number. I hate it, but it's one of those four, five numbers I'll roll with.

I would take the favorite Ravens, my MVP, minus five and a half against Seattle, Sharper Square. Dude, this is a really brutal week. If you can find consensus on any game, I will cover your entire betting table this week. And this game is the centerpiece of the conversation. there is no reason why anybody should be betting on the Ravens. We've got two top 10 defenses. We've got a quarterback in Lamar Jackson who is not good at all as a large favorite, more than a field goal, not good when he is a large favorite at home.

We've got a coach in Pete Carroll who's great as an underdog against the spread. we've got a really good offense, balanced offense in Seattle. And while Baltimore's defense is great, it's not that great against the run. So there's no reason anybody should be betting on Baltimore this week. And yet, and yet, this number went up from five and a half and then went down to six. So what that tells you is that the wise guys came in on Baltimore of five and a half and they bet Seattle at plus six. So to me, this is a number game.

And it's going to be about what number are you seeing. Baltimore of five and a half, Seattle at six. I will tell you this. True story. Sunday night, I'm looking at the lines. I do the podcast of favorites with Simon Hunter. We will talk about the lines that we're going to bet the following week. First game that we discussed was this game.

And we were both like, we know Seattle is the right side. to this second, I have not bet Seattle. I cannot pull the trigger on it. I haven't bet Baltimore either, but I haven't bet Seattle. It's a weird game, dude. It's a weird game. Let me throw another one at you. Kansas City minus two and a half, awful loss, much better quarterback.

I've seen, I think Kansas City's defense is the best in the Mahomes era. And I've seen Miami against really good competition and really fast, aggressive defenses. They're not the same. Now, the dolphins got there a week ahead of time. They've got a time advantage. They are closer than Kansas City. But again, three I pass, minus two and a half chiefs. I like KC off a law, Sharper Square. Another really interesting one, Colin. You know how when you and I used to do the Collins football show on Sundays on ESPN, And I would get certain games where all of my reporting, all the numbers, nothing would indicate a consensus. Or I would be with you and we'd say, dude, I don't care what people are saying.

We'd know football too. This is the right side. And we'd make an executive decision. Yes. We're making an executive decision about the chiefs. So here's a really interesting thing. The chiefs opened his two point favorites. It got that up to two and a half.

And then all of a sudden, between Tuesday and today, 48 hours, the wise guys have been pounding the dolphins. And it could be because the chiefs are missing Nick Bolton. It could be because the dolphins got there earlier and people are skeptical. Are we having a real conversation here? Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of less than three points where you're basically saying, Patrick Mahomes go in a football game, you don't think about this. You just bet Patrick Mahomes. This is a no-brainer. Okay. I'll give you another one. Okay. Right now, since week five, Joe Burrell, minus two and a half

home against the bills, is completing 78 and a half percent of his passes. Think about this. It's not a seven-on-seven drill. 78 percent. Take out September. Start in October. This is arguably the best team and the best quarterback without question. Now, he wouldn't be my MVP because what Lamar does sort of the soul, the running, everything. And he's got a bunch of new pieces and it's all working. But again, the numbers come down. Some say it's one and a half, two, two and a half. I'm going to take Cincinnati.

This is also one of those rare spots. I talked about this with Detroit on Monday night. The Lions never play Monday night football at home. So it's Marty Grau. How many games has Cincinnati hosted that are the national TV game in Cincinnati? Not many. This is really special for them. Small market, Joe Burrow, they want to show off.

I like the Bengals minus two and a half, sharp or square. Sharp. This game was, it's really interesting. This game actually opened the Bengals as one and a half point underdogs. Immediately the wise guys started coming in on the Bengals. Sunday night, last Sunday night, it was at one and a half, then it was two, two and a half, three. Wise guys took a little bit of a taste at three, but that's the limit. As you were just saying, sometimes this is about the number, right?

Everything you just said about Joe Burrow is true. This is a much better team since the by week. He's fully healthy. Do not discount the Bengals defense. Trey Hendrickson is grading out as the second best pass rusher in the, the NFL right now. He's got eight and a half sacks, one and a half behind Daniel Hunter, the league leader in the NFL. And by the way, he's got six and a half of his sacks while the Bengals have won four of the past five games. Like this defense is starting to get into a much

better rhythm. And they've been, they've played together for a long time. Their defensive coronary has stayed there for a long time. The other side of the ball, and we've talked about this with the Bills, that makes them a scary team to bet on right now. Matt Milano, all pro-linebacker, Trudevius White, Pro Bowl-level corner, Dequan Jones, defensive linemen. Like, they have lost guys at every level that are playmakers. Not just like, okay, we got someone who can fill in. They've lost above-average players. That's a defense that's struggling right now.

All right, let me give you some underdogs, so that's where I'm prone to go. Let me start with a game that I flipped on today. Vikings plus four and a half at the Falcons. So they're going to Taylor Heineke. I'm a fan of Josh Dobbs, super bright kid. I think Minnesota's left tackle, two top receivers, head coach, tight end is a really good group. Jordan Addison has popped. Yeah.

Four and a half is a lot. Dobbs will make plays with his feet. I think Minnesota is one of the smartest teams in the league, just certainly unlucky early in the season in recent weeks not as unlucky. I know it's a new quarterback, but I've seen this with interim coaching changes. You see this, this energy, I would take the Vikings plus four and a half, sharper square.

Yeah, that's the sharp side. It's not like, oh, wow, I can't wait to bet the Vikings this week. The number was at five. It's moved down to four and a half. The Heineke thing for the Falcons is interesting because he's the kind of quarterback that professional betters love to bet on when he's an underdog because he's so,

the variance on his performance is so high and he's willing to sling it anywhere, anytime. But that's a liability when you're a favorite. And making the Falcons this big of a favorite right now, I think undervalues the rest of the Vikings team, as you just said. And so the wise guys are in agreement with you, Colin, and they would take the Vikings here.

Bears now eight and a half, again, all odds provided by draft kings. The Saints aren't going to score a lot of points. I think they have one of the weaker coaches in the league. I like their personnel, but I think we have to acknowledge what Derek Carr is. Eight and a half is a ton. For the record, Montez Sweat, Chicago Media, way too harsh on that move. There will be no second rounders as good as Montez Sweat on the defensive line. You give up a second.

You don't for Chase Claypool. for an elite defensive lineman, you give up a second round pick when you have two firsts. You're going to trade the second one down and get that number second round pick back. I thought Chicago media just, they've had so much shrapnel through the years on the Bears. They just immediately say bad move. I had two GMs said there are no Montez sweats in the second round. That good now? Forget it.

And this coach wants to win now. I think the Bears plus eight and a half is one of the stronger underdog bets. whatever quarterback plays, they both move okay, I would take it sharper square. Yeah, at eight and a half it's the play. It's a really interesting game. And it's one of the wise guys have been a little bit anxious to go all in on.

Derrick Carr, as a favorite, is just not very good, right? One, five and one this season as a favorite. And as a team, the Saints are not very well coached. I don't think you can go in on what happened last week and say, okay, the Saints are back. They're operating as they're supposed to. The flip side is the Bears defense, even with Montess Sweat, is not going to be amazing.

You're really hoping that the Saints play a ball control game and try not to make mistakes and just try to win the game and don't get a little bit crazy. And they recognize the opportunity they have to play against a defense and against an offense that is not. going to be able to score a lot of points. So I think you're on the right side here because the number has just gotten so big. Finally, Jets plus three and a half, I don't trust Brandon Staley, and I do think Robert Sala gets the most out of his personnel. The Jets are getting over a field

goal, so the hook is obvious. This is a Jets team that's ugly, but finds ways to win ugly games and remain viable with an offense that is a water pistol. This comes down to trust. I think Sala is the right coach with the wrong quarterback. I think Staley is the wrong coach with the right quarterback. I'm not laying that hook. I would take the Jets plus three and a half, sharper square. Boom, love it, go.

Finally, finally, Colin, you're looking at an ugly game, a home dog getting the hook with a quarterback who probably shouldn't even be considered as a backup on most rosters, and you're playing the right move. It's exactly what you just said. This has been an opportunistic defense. They get up when they're playing the best quarterbacks. It is a coaching mismatch.

It is a game at home for a team that has a lot to play for still. So yes, please, thank you for taking the New York Jets at plus three and a half. Because I was afraid that was going to be the game that I have to convince you of. And so now if you say, what are you going to convince me of? I'm going to have to look at my nose and be like, oh, my God, he took all the ugliest games, which is impressive. Okay. So we do this every week. I ask you about a game that I want you to talk me into that I have a feeling for.

I like the Houston Texans. I really, really do. I like their coach. I like their quarterback. I like their spirit. C.J. Strouds come back down to Earth a little. People have film. But mine is two and a half hosting the Bucks who don't have a ton to play for.

I think Tampa was a cute story, not a cute team. The reality is Houston still in that wonky division, I think still convinces itself. It can be a wildcar team and really truly believes it. And frankly, I think the Texans personnel is a little better than people think. They're just young. I would swallow the two and a half here, sharper square. There's no, honest to God, it's all over the place. And it's why this number is still a two and a half.

If there was a real consensus, this number would have gone down to two or it would have gone up to three. And you can always tell that's the case with a number of two and a half that it's settled there on Sunday night has not moved. I bet the bucks at plus two and a half. I feel like it's possible the book is out on C.J. Strout. I feel like if you look at, you mentioned right off the top, Russell Wilson, better quarterback rating right now than Patrick Mahomes. Russell Wilson, more touchdown passes than Patrick Mahomes. Russell Wilson, fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. If you were to do a blind who's the QB with just their stats,

C.J. Stroud and Baker Mayfield, they would generally be the same. Completion percentage is the same, pretty close, QB rating the same. CJ has fewer interceptions, but not a ton. And then Baker has another touchdown. So you're not getting a huge quarterback advantage here. In the past three games, CJ has definitively come down to Earth. after having QB ratings over over 100 in his first three games. So there's not a huge consensus here.

I could see why you're going to take the Texans, two and a half, less than a field goal at home, probably a good matchup for them. But it's not one you're going to get consensus. I'm not going to be betting on the Texans. All right, give me an ugly one. You know, a team I have stayed away from all year. Oh, I know a lot of them. Yeah, the Colts, the Patriots.

The New England game was interesting to me. So Washington comes off a vaunted rival back down to Earth. New England's only minus three, two and a half. I think New England's the side. So I'm guessing that's the ugly game you're going to talk me into. How about the Carolina Panthers plus two and a half? So number one, number one, the Panthers, they were, the Colts were, they really struggled. defensively. We've seen that. And they've consistently gotten worse as the season has gone on.

The Panthers, meanwhile, made a very specific change. And that was Frank Reich no longer calling the place. And even in a couple of games, even though it was a low-scoring game against the Texans, they beat the Texans, right? They beat the Texans in Carolina, where the defense tends to play better. Now, Bryce Young is moving the ball more quickly. the pace of the offense is faster. This is not an Indianapolis defense that is equipped to beat a team like the Panthers on the road. They're not that good. You really want to bet on Gardner Minshu as a road favorite. So the wise guys are back in the Panthers here.

It's an ugly game. It's one of the few games on the board where people are looking at it as a professional better and being like, oh, yeah, that's the one I'm taking. Finally, I stay away from big emotional TV games. I think the number is right. Philadelphia minus three. I think one of the reasons they played poorly last week, they knew they were playing Dallas. So I think they'll win 2723. Dax's a great home favorite.

I think the last three games against Philly, he's 3 and O, two are nonsense. You know, Gardner Minshue, one of them was a week 17 game when Philadelphia emptied the bench. Just for our audience, it does feel like, the numbers right to me? Yes. Is there anything wise guys think? Exactly. It is split down the middle.

No joke. Every single person I've spoken to. They find reasons to like the Eagles. They find reasons to like the Cowboys. I like the Eagles. Better coach, much better coach. I think they have a better roster. I think they are more comfortable winning, right?

The Cowboys, sometimes you watch them play, and they seem like a super emotional kid who, when things are going well, like they are the happiest person in the world. And when things aren't, they don't really know how to manage it. I think DAC is a little bit too boisterous for someone who has really never won anything and takes some of these things a little bit too sensitively. And I think Jalen is so even keel and so comfortable whether you're winning or losing. The challenge is, is Jalen hurt.

But I do think the Eagles as short favorites, to me, it's almost like the Chiefs. It's going to be hard for me not to take them if all I need they do is win by a field goal. They're also a very good big game team, a big situation team. The best team right now on fourth down and third down in the league, which keeps it away from CD and DAC. I think that's a big deal. I agree. We know the best fourth down team with Tush Push. They're now the best third down.

team and big situational dramatic games. That's a undervalued stat. Move the chains. You also got to think about A.J. Brown, right? Five straight games, 125 receiving yards or more. The Cowboys secondary has been playing better, much, much better than I think people are giving a credit for, given the fact they've had so many injuries. But A.J. Brown is a different kind of player, right?

Now he's a guy who's less than 100 yards behind Tyree Kill. to lead the league in receiving yardage because of the run that he's on. A.J. Brown can make people get healthy fast. So if Jalen Hertz is injured, throw the ball to A.J. Brown, and you're going to see how quickly this team in Philadelphia starts to play a little better and starts to feel a little bit better. All right, buddy, Chad Millman Action Network, CCO. Good seeing you, my man.

Good luck to us all, Colin. The Volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. Get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, what's good, y'all?

You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.

And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.